N292UX
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UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:50 pm

In the past few months, United Express has cut multiple regional routes out of EWR and shifted them to IAD to alleviate congestion and improve connection. So far, routes like EWR-CHA/AVP/MHT/LEX/AVL are ones that have been shifted to IAD. It appears they are doing this in waves every few months, so which routes do you think may be next?
My guesses right now are:
XNA
CAK
BGR
PQI
MSN

Any other routes you think may be shifted? Discuss
 
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United787
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:02 pm

I understand the plan behind the shift from EWR to IAD but I have some questions. Does the mean these airports will no longer be connected non-stop to NYC? I can't imagine AA flies to any of them but what about DL and B6? Was there a lot of O&D to NYC? If so, will that be an issue? Or, was most of the traffic connecting anyway?
 
N292UX
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:10 pm

United787 wrote:
I understand the plan behind the shift from EWR to IAD but I have some questions. Does the mean these airports will no longer be connected non-stop to NYC? I can't imagine AA flies to any of them but what about DL and B6? Was there a lot of O&D to NYC? If so, will that be an issue? Or, was most of the traffic connecting anyway?

That can be the case. There's a ton of O&D to NYC, but it may not be high enough to fill a plane to somewhere like AVP/ELM every day.
 
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chepos
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:10 pm

United787 wrote:
I understand the plan behind the shift from EWR to IAD but I have some questions. Does the mean these airports will no longer be connected non-stop to NYC? I can't imagine AA flies to any of them but what about DL and B6? Was there a lot of O&D to NYC? If so, will that be an issue? Or, was most of the traffic connecting anyway?


Actually out of LGA AA flies to XNA and CAK, out of other hubs AA flies to all except PQI.
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SyracuseAvGeek
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:42 pm

PQI is a EAS route that just stared this past summer. It won’t be cut, SkyWest is committed to servicing it until at least 2020.
"I haven't been everywhere yet, but it's on my list."
 
rnav2dlrey
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:47 pm

first BDL (which had actually become predominantly mainline), today MHT.... PVD is next.
 
N292UX
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:48 pm

rnav2dlrey wrote:
first BDL (which had actually become predominantly mainline), today MHT.... PVD is next.

That wouldn't shock me. How long do the EWR-PVD flights usually last?
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:55 pm

O and D these routes need 1 or 2 a day to NY at most.

Most of that is covered from LGA on AA and DL.

NYC is not a natural hub like ORD...unless you want it to be.

UA seems to have better use for its EWR gates
 
MIflyer12
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:21 pm

Maybe UA will wait a bit and see how fares fall xxx-IAD-YYY vs. xxx-EWR-YYY. They'll want to see decent $ from the Newark adds, too.
 
drdisque
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:53 pm

PQI's EAS is held by UA, not SkyWest and it's operated by Commutair. Regardless, it's not going anywhere. I agree that PVD and any remaining upstate NY airports other than BUF are likely next.
 
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:18 am

United787 wrote:
I understand the plan behind the shift from EWR to IAD but I have some questions. Does the mean these airports will no longer be connected non-stop to NYC? I can't imagine AA flies to any of them but what about DL and B6? Was there a lot of O&D to NYC? If so, will that be an issue? Or, was most of the traffic connecting anyway?


CHA has DL to LGA. Not sure on the others
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:22 am

Good to see IAD get additional service. A shame that UA can't find a true southeast hub. Traveling within the south on UA is all but impossible.
 
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janders
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:26 am

Eventually all will either be cut or transition to mainline.
UA has stated they plan to make EWR all mainline operation.
"We make war that we may live in peace." -- Aristotle
 
jb1087xna
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:35 am

United787 wrote:
I understand the plan behind the shift from EWR to IAD but I have some questions. Does the mean these airports will no longer be connected non-stop to NYC? I can't imagine AA flies to any of them but what about DL and B6? Was there a lot of O&D to NYC? If so, will that be an issue? Or, was most of the traffic connecting anyway?


AA and DL both fly to XNA from LGA. AA is twice a day 6x a week and DL is once a day 6x a week. There's definitely some O&D on the route given Wal-Mart's base in Northwest Arkansas (XNA). I'm actually very interested to see how EWR-XNA pans out for UA given the trends to move flights through IAD.
Last edited by jb1087xna on Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
RL757PVD
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:36 am

Isn't ALB still hanging in at 5x?

The one good thing about these cuts is they are typically capacity neutral for the affected airports.

The one unique thing about PVD compared to at least the larger markets is that UA-EWR is the only NYC connection with no LGA or JFK, i;d argue with a reliable operation, PVD could feed EWR with mainline.
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September11
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:03 am

janders wrote:
Eventually all will either be cut or transition to mainline.
UA has stated they plan to make EWR all mainline operation.


Do I smell EWR-CMH mainline?
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DeltaRules
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:19 am

chepos wrote:
United787 wrote:
I understand the plan behind the shift from EWR to IAD but I have some questions. Does the mean these airports will no longer be connected non-stop to NYC? I can't imagine AA flies to any of them but what about DL and B6? Was there a lot of O&D to NYC? If so, will that be an issue? Or, was most of the traffic connecting anyway?


Actually out of LGA AA flies to XNA and CAK, out of other hubs AA flies to all except PQI.


I can't imagine LGA-CAK will go anywhere as long as PSA has a maintenance base at CAK, either.
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:33 am

N292UX wrote:
In the past few months, United Express has cut multiple regional routes out of EWR and shifted them to IAD to alleviate congestion and improve connection. So far, routes like EWR-CHA/AVP/MHT/LEX/AVL are ones that have been shifted to IAD. It appears they are doing this in waves every few months, so which routes do you think may be next?
My guesses right now are:
XNA
CAK
BGR
PQI
MSN

Any other routes you think may be shifted? Discuss


FWIW, EWR-AVL will resume in early June as a summer seasonal daily flight, in addition to IAD-AVL. G4 currently flies EWR-AVL less than daily.
 
XNA2ASG
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Sun Oct 28, 2018 9:06 pm

N292UX wrote:
In the past few months, United Express has cut multiple regional routes out of EWR and shifted them to IAD to alleviate congestion and improve connection. So far, routes like EWR-CHA/AVP/MHT/LEX/AVL are ones that have been shifted to IAD. It appears they are doing this in waves every few months, so which routes do you think may be next?
My guesses right now are:
XNA
CAK
BGR
PQI
MSN

Any other routes you think may be shifted? Discuss



XNA has had EWR service for a long time. Considering we have routes like SFO and LAX, taking EWR off might not be worth it. Switching to IAD, although, might be good or bad. DL and AA have LGA which means more competition. AA serves DCA from XNA, meaning UA would still have competition, just less of it.
 
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Sun Oct 28, 2018 9:16 pm

The ones I can't see going at least E75: CAK, YQB, BGR. I also wonder what the long term holds for ALB, ROC, and SYR which might see a much bigger service tilt to IAD/ORD.
 
tomaheath
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Sun Oct 28, 2018 9:37 pm

I know a few business travelers disappointed in the discontinuation of the EWR flights from Manchester NH.
 
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:14 pm

I don't like it, but I bet OKC gets chopped at some point. United has continued to lose market share in OKC, despite the airport (and other airlines) setting record traffic levels. This year we have seen AA add 6 daily flights, while UA has reduced gauge and frequency on ORD DEN and IAH, as well as drop LAX completely (which prompted AA to replace the UA frequency and add a flight).
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:26 pm

drdisque wrote:
PQI's EAS is held by UA, not SkyWest and it's operated by Commutair. Regardless, it's not going anywhere. I agree that PVD and any remaining upstate NY airports other than BUF are likely next.


Next as in discontinued and shifted to IAD?

UA/CO (and PE before it) has flown EWR-SYR for decades.
 
gravytrain
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:37 pm

Wouldn't be surprised to see GLA and SNN go.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Sun Oct 28, 2018 11:34 pm

gravytrain wrote:
Wouldn't be surprised to see GLA and SNN go.


That's a completly different topic
 
Menzenski
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Sun Oct 28, 2018 11:46 pm

N62NA wrote:
drdisque wrote:
PQI's EAS is held by UA, not SkyWest and it's operated by Commutair. Regardless, it's not going anywhere. I agree that PVD and any remaining upstate NY airports other than BUF are likely next.


Next as in discontinued and shifted to IAD?

UA/CO (and PE before it) has flown EWR-SYR for decades.


Yep -- SYR / ROC / BUF all have significant O+D to the New York area. ITH has already switched to IAD and ELM has been announced as one of the next markets making the switch. The only other market would be ALB which I definitely expect to see shift capacity to IAD before too long.
 
Runway28L
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Sun Oct 28, 2018 11:57 pm

janders wrote:
Eventually all will either be cut or transition to mainline.
UA has stated they plan to make EWR all mainline operation.

Where was that stated? Didn't hear about it before, just curious.

I really don't see it happening, especially with IND, CMH, and PIT. Those are heavy YX 170/175 routes used to rotate aircraft in and out of MX and other hubs such as ORD and IAH. All three are crew bases for Republic as well. Now could they potentially gain more mainline? I definitely think so. But could they go all mainline? I just can't picture it happening.
 
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:04 am

tomaheath wrote:
I know a few business travelers disappointed in the discontinuation of the EWR flights from Manchester NH.


I’m sure although those short RJ flights to EWR are so brutal for delays when EWR has weather.
 
tomaheath
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:14 am

SFOtoORD wrote:
tomaheath wrote:
I know a few business travelers disappointed in the discontinuation of the EWR flights from Manchester NH.


I’m sure although those short RJ flights to EWR are so brutal for delays when EWR has weather.

The late afternoon flight is probably delayed 50% of the time sometimes a couple of hours.
 
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STT757
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:22 am

janders wrote:
Eventually all will either be cut or transition to mainline.
UA has stated they plan to make EWR all mainline operation.


Not all mainline, just mostly. UA wants to grow their position in the NY market, they want to increase the passengers they handle by utilizing larger aircraft.

United will continue to grow at Newark, which faces significant capacity constraints, with larger gauge aircraft, says Kirby. He expects that, within a decade, it will operate "close to all mainline operations" at the airport.

"We're starting down a road here in Newark, while we can't really add more flights because the airport is full, what we can do is upgauge across the board," he says.


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/analysis-united-maps-future-of-newark-and-washingto-449194/
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:37 am

jetmatt777 wrote:
I don't like it, but I bet OKC gets chopped at some point. United has continued to lose market share in OKC, despite the airport (and other airlines) setting record traffic levels. This year we have seen AA add 6 daily flights, while UA has reduced gauge and frequency on ORD DEN and IAH, as well as drop LAX completely (which prompted AA to replace the UA frequency and add a flight).


OKC is located in the largest U.S. metropolitan area that doesn't have nonstop service to LGA or JFK, and the lack of OKC-NYC nonstop service will be a huge hole if UA discontinues OKC-EWR nonstop service. AA or DL could add OKC-LGA nonstop service in order to fill in a huge hole in OKC and NYC if UA drops OKC-EWR nonstop service.
 
cheapgreek
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:46 am

Read a week ago or so that UA is looking to add new flights to small cities in the east to feed IAD. While EWR is packed, IAD has plenty of room to add new flights and once the metro line is finished with its IAD stop, its appeal will grow with both connecting flights and O&D traffic for the DC area. To add a southern hub would be cost prohibitive and no airline can service every route, but a built up IAD with its many international flights should be successful. UA is also adding 50 seat RJ's in anticipation of growing IAD. Should be interesting.
 
stlgph
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:03 am

XNA? Really?

I mean, let's just cut off a link for people shuttling back and forth to and from Wal Mart, Tyson Foods, University of Arkansas, and others.
Great idea.
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freakyrat
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:16 pm

SBN-EWR was cut even with decent O/D. Most connections on this flight going to BOS. Flight will return next fall seasonally from September thru December to accomodate Notre Dame students. No word on a replacement flight top IAD for East Coast connections. Local United folks want one.

AA resumed flights at SBN in June and is poaching passengers from UA because of UA's unreliable connecting flights to just ORD. Enplanements were up 43% in August.

Delta has a 5yr old opoen RFP at SBN with DGS for servicing a SBN-JFK flight. No word if they will try to take over from UA. DEspitew AA coming back to SBN Delta continues to hum along with high load factors as does AA now after a slow start at the exxpense of UA.
 
freakyrat
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:22 pm

cheapgreek wrote:
Read a week ago or so that UA is looking to add new flights to small cities in the east to feed IAD. While EWR is packed, IAD has plenty of room to add new flights and once the metro line is finished with its IAD stop, its appeal will grow with both connecting flights and O&D traffic for the DC area. To add a southern hub would be cost prohibitive and no airline can service every route, but a built up IAD with its many international flights should be successful. UA is also adding 50 seat RJ's in anticipation of growing IAD. Should be interesting.


I suppose that once UA gets the RJ's all moved tl IAD that some of the Midwest flights that went to EWR will be resumed again out of IAD>
 
MIflyer12
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:44 pm

stlgph wrote:
XNA? Really?

I mean, let's just cut off a link for people shuttling back and forth to and from Wal Mart, Tyson Foods, University of Arkansas, and others.
Great idea.


LGA-XNA, 1x DL CR9, 2x AA E75. I'm sure they'll be happy to upgauge.
 
stlgph
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:30 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
stlgph wrote:
XNA? Really?

I mean, let's just cut off a link for people shuttling back and forth to and from Wal Mart, Tyson Foods, University of Arkansas, and others.
Great idea.


LGA-XNA, 1x DL CR9, 2x AA E75. I'm sure they'll be happy to upgauge.



Only a total moron would think about walking away from that business.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
maps4ltd
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:38 pm

N292UX wrote:
In the past few months, United Express has cut multiple regional routes out of EWR and shifted them to IAD to alleviate congestion and improve connection. So far, routes like EWR-CHA/AVP/MHT/LEX/AVL are ones that have been shifted to IAD. It appears they are doing this in waves every few months, so which routes do you think may be next?
My guesses right now are:
XNA
CAK
BGR
PQI
MSN

Any other routes you think may be shifted? Discuss


There's only so much capacity you can put in a market like IAD. With Newark, you've got both connecting and O&D passengers from a market like MSN, while you wouldn't have many people ending their journey at IAD. EWR serves more destinations with greater frequency. Also, I'd rather connect in EWR's C terminal than IAD's dumpy C/D, and I'm sure others would as well.
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TTailedTiger
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:58 pm

Would it be possible for MEM to finally get IAD service?
 
KCaviator
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:02 pm

I was under the impression that EWR isn’t going completely mainline, just eliminating most single-class regional jets. Dual-class regional jets (i.e. 175s) would be staying for the most part.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:03 pm

I understand that United is shifting flights from EWR to IAD, but why would they add more UEX flights to EWR than (Hilton Head, pensacola, etc) when they are trying to make EWR completely mainline
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:11 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
I understand that United is shifting flights from EWR to IAD, but why would they add more UEX flights to EWR than (Hilton Head, pensacola, etc) when they are trying to make EWR completely mainline


They’re not making it completely mainline. They want it to be predominantly mainline within a decade.

By 2028 most of the 50 seaters will be retired anyway as they hit cycle limits and the mainline fleet will probably look quite different to what it does now. There will continue to be 2 class RJs in EWR for a very long time to come.

I think some people are reading too much into UA’s recent changes, this will take a long time to filter through. The last thing they’d want to do is dump unprofitable capacity into IAD so it needs to be a gradual process to gauge the market reaction.
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WorldFlier
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:38 pm

stlgph wrote:
XNA? Really?

I mean, let's just cut off a link for people shuttling back and forth to and from Wal Mart, Tyson Foods, University of Arkansas, and others.
Great idea.


As someone who took this flight...for a while...it was always full and always costing me around $700 R/T.

This can be made into a 737-700 Flight, but with reduced yields.

But I guaran-f'n-tee everyone that this flight has to be one of the most profitable ones in the network (at least on Mondays, Thursdays, and Fridays) period. A 1.5 hour flight for the same price as going across the Country, always full.

If they cut it, I will be shocked!
 
jb1087xna
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:12 pm

WorldFlier wrote:
stlgph wrote:
XNA? Really?

I mean, let's just cut off a link for people shuttling back and forth to and from Wal Mart, Tyson Foods, University of Arkansas, and others.
Great idea.


As someone who took this flight...for a while...it was always full and always costing me around $700 R/T.

This can be made into a 737-700 Flight, but with reduced yields.

But I guaran-f'n-tee everyone that this flight has to be one of the most profitable ones in the network (at least on Mondays, Thursdays, and Fridays) period. A 1.5 hour flight for the same price as going across the Country, always full.

If they cut it, I will be shocked!


Yeah I'd be shocked as well. I don't think they'd upgauge it to mainline, but I also can't see them cutting it. WM has to be the only reason they're flying XNA-SFO, given WM's dotcom headquarters is out there. AA and DL don't even have PHX or SLC flights respectively in terms of west coast hubs. No hard information at all, but there have to be business ties that justify XNA-EWR.
 
WorldFlier
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:40 am

jb1087xna wrote:
WorldFlier wrote:
stlgph wrote:
XNA? Really?

I mean, let's just cut off a link for people shuttling back and forth to and from Wal Mart, Tyson Foods, University of Arkansas, and others.
Great idea.


As someone who took this flight...for a while...it was always full and always costing me around $700 R/T.

This can be made into a 737-700 Flight, but with reduced yields.

But I guaran-f'n-tee everyone that this flight has to be one of the most profitable ones in the network (at least on Mondays, Thursdays, and Fridays) period. A 1.5 hour flight for the same price as going across the Country, always full.

If they cut it, I will be shocked!


Yeah I'd be shocked as well. I don't think they'd upgauge it to mainline, but I also can't see them cutting it. WM has to be the only reason they're flying XNA-SFO, given WM's dotcom headquarters is out there. AA and DL don't even have PHX or SLC flights respectively in terms of west coast hubs. No hard information at all, but there have to be business ties that justify XNA-EWR.



Wal-Mart is the 800 lb gorilla, but don't forget a couple "orangutans" in JB Hunt and Tyson Foods.

You're right, I can't see 737-700 but when they up-gauged it to a E-175 (12 First Class)...First was just as full as it was with an E-170 (and almost all of them were sold).
 
stlgph
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:42 am

When it comes to XNA, don't forget about Tyson Foods.

When it comes to Wal Mart, my understanding is they tend to be a little "conservative" when it comes to travel (surprise) and therefore more people are going to *them* then they are going to other people. They also tend to do things more "old school" and prefer handshakes more than constant conference calls.

Given all the suppliers in meat and dairy in California, flights to/from the state should come as no surprise. Given all the corporate entities and operations in NYC who serve as suppliers, that should come as no surprise, plus Jet.com's offices sit right down the road from Newark.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
77H
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Re: UAX EWR route cuts: Which are next?

Tue Oct 30, 2018 11:37 am

maps4ltd wrote:
N292UX wrote:
In the past few months, United Express has cut multiple regional routes out of EWR and shifted them to IAD to alleviate congestion and improve connection. So far, routes like EWR-CHA/AVP/MHT/LEX/AVL are ones that have been shifted to IAD. It appears they are doing this in waves every few months, so which routes do you think may be next?
My guesses right now are:
XNA
CAK
BGR
PQI
MSN

Any other routes you think may be shifted? Discuss


There's only so much capacity you can put in a market like IAD. With Newark, you've got both connecting and O&D passengers from a market like MSN, while you wouldn't have many people ending their journey at IAD. EWR serves more destinations with greater frequency. Also, I'd rather connect in EWR's C terminal than IAD's dumpy C/D, and I'm sure others would as well.


I think MSN will stick around. EWR-MSN is 2x daily and has been seeing upgauges to E70/75 equipment quite regularly. Perhaps UA consolidates both express flights into 1x 319/73G.

77H

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