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ewt340
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Sat Oct 20, 2018 1:59 pm

musman9853 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
A350, B777X and the remaining B787 would be canceled. They would milk A330, A380, B777 and their new B787-9 for a long time until they got their money worth.



agree about the a350 and the 77x, but they have like 30 787s already. might as well take some of the -9s and -10s that are on order and defer the rest.


That's the problem. While B787 are nice. They still need to Pay for it. The last thing they need right now is to pay for new aircraft. The only solutions is to defer the orders for 5-10 years so they don't have to pay the penalty. And I'm sure Boeing would be fine with it as long as they don't lose the orders.
 
ewt340
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Sat Oct 20, 2018 2:02 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

And removing their A320/A321ceo would be a bad idea. Since those plane are pretty fuel efficient. And they should milked it as long as possible.


With such high fuel/oil prices and EY having almost no fuel hedges, those airplanes are too old. Taking delivery of the neo's will definitely help.


Depends on the economy of it. Milking older aircraft that is pretty efficient like A320/A321ceo or A330-300 until the end of its life cycle might be cheaper compared to taking newer next gen aircraft. The savings might not be worth it. A320/A321ceo are extremely efficient already, we are not talking about A340-500 or B747-400 here. Deferring the neo order might be working as well just to make sure they don't pay massive penalty.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Sat Oct 20, 2018 3:16 pm

ewt340 wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

And removing their A320/A321ceo would be a bad idea. Since those plane are pretty fuel efficient. And they should milked it as long as possible.


With such high fuel/oil prices and EY having almost no fuel hedges, those airplanes are too old. Taking delivery of the neo's will definitely help.


Depends on the economy of it. Milking older aircraft that is pretty efficient like A320/A321ceo or A330-300 until the end of its life cycle might be cheaper compared to taking newer next gen aircraft. The savings might not be worth it. A320/A321ceo are extremely efficient already, we are not talking about A340-500 or B747-400 here. Deferring the neo order might be working as well just to make sure they don't pay massive penalty.


Sorry, but new neo's will always have a fuel burn advantage of at least 15pc per jet over the ceo's. And then you have wider economies of scale.

As for deferrals - you do know that these can and often do have a financial imposition?
 
musman9853
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Sat Oct 20, 2018 3:24 pm

ewt340 wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
A350, B777X and the remaining B787 would be canceled. They would milk A330, A380, B777 and their new B787-9 for a long time until they got their money worth.



agree about the a350 and the 77x, but they have like 30 787s already. might as well take some of the -9s and -10s that are on order and defer the rest.


That's the problem. While B787 are nice. They still need to Pay for it. The last thing they need right now is to pay for new aircraft. The only solutions is to defer the orders for 5-10 years so they don't have to pay the penalty. And I'm sure Boeing would be fine with it as long as they don't lose the orders.



agreed, that's what i said. take a handful of the 787s to replace the a330s and then push back the rest like 5 years
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Sat Oct 20, 2018 4:04 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Depends on the economy of it. Milking older aircraft that is pretty efficient like A320/A321ceo or A330-300 until the end of its life cycle might be cheaper compared to taking newer next gen aircraft. The savings might not be worth it. A320/A321ceo are extremely efficient already, we are not talking about A340-500 or B747-400 here. Deferring the neo order might be working as well just to make sure they don't pay massive penalty.


New frame:
High lease/finance cost
Low fuel cost
Low MX cost
Low IRROPS related cost (a debatable topic with low-quality of current generation products, 787, GTF, Trent 1000)

Old frame
Low lease/finance cost
High fuel cost
High(In-house)/Very High(outsourced) MX cost
High IRROPS related cost.

Even a MX/MRO powerhouse like Delta stopped buying old frames, means scales are tipped in favor of new frames.

Knowing both A & B offered ME3 sweetheart deals, penalties will be negligible if they got out soon enough.
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PerfectGriffin
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Sat Oct 20, 2018 4:54 pm

With all these cancellations, the new AUH midfield terminal will feel quite empty whenever it opens.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Sat Oct 20, 2018 5:03 pm

I thought Europe was half a continent, guess I need to get a new globe. But I think it was several hundred million years ago.
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Antarius
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Sat Oct 20, 2018 5:24 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:

With such high fuel/oil prices and EY having almost no fuel hedges, those airplanes are too old. Taking delivery of the neo's will definitely help.


Depends on the economy of it. Milking older aircraft that is pretty efficient like A320/A321ceo or A330-300 until the end of its life cycle might be cheaper compared to taking newer next gen aircraft. The savings might not be worth it. A320/A321ceo are extremely efficient already, we are not talking about A340-500 or B747-400 here. Deferring the neo order might be working as well just to make sure they don't pay massive penalty.


Sorry, but new neo's will always have a fuel burn advantage of at least 15pc per jet over the ceo's. And then you have wider economies of scale.

As for deferrals - you do know that these can and often do have a financial imposition?


Yes, but you arent factoring in acquisition cost. Its like buying a hybrid for the gas mileage when you drive 20 miles a week - my decade old car does just fine.
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Channex757
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:07 pm

PerfectGriffin wrote:
With all these cancellations, the new AUH midfield terminal will feel quite empty whenever it opens.

It could actually be a quite pleasant place to connect through.

Other cariers will doubtless pick up a small amount of the slack, but the crowded scenes of DXB and DOH won't be happening.

Still, all we have so far is the blogging of an industry nuisance to "confirm" the cuts. EY may make a m ove in that direction but it won't be any time soon as negotiations need to happen behind the scenes; negotiations that spotty teen egomaniac bloggers have no knowledge or access to whatsoever.
 
ewt340
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:29 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Depends on the economy of it. Milking older aircraft that is pretty efficient like A320/A321ceo or A330-300 until the end of its life cycle might be cheaper compared to taking newer next gen aircraft. The savings might not be worth it. A320/A321ceo are extremely efficient already, we are not talking about A340-500 or B747-400 here. Deferring the neo order might be working as well just to make sure they don't pay massive penalty.


New frame:
High lease/finance cost
Low fuel cost
Low MX cost
Low IRROPS related cost (a debatable topic with low-quality of current generation products, 787, GTF, Trent 1000)

Old frame
Low lease/finance cost
High fuel cost
High(In-house)/Very High(outsourced) MX cost
High IRROPS related cost.

Even a MX/MRO powerhouse like Delta stopped buying old frames, means scales are tipped in favor of new frames.

Knowing both A & B offered ME3 sweetheart deals, penalties will be negligible if they got out soon enough.


You realize majority of their A320 is less than 10 years old, half of them actually are younger than 5 years old. All their A321 are actually younger than 5 years old, majority of them are 3-4 years old.
Half of their A330-200/-300 are older than 10 years old, while the other half are younger than 10 years old.

Looking at this data alone, one could assume that retiring these aircraft would be a bad move for them right now.
 
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MatheusLPV
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Sun Jan 27, 2019 4:14 pm

I just learned that EY will be actually receiving the first 5 A350-1000 due to an strong dispute with Airbus which kinda forced Etihad to receive those frames ...
We have heard a lot of rumors after the first frame entered final assemble but in fact there is no crew receiving training to operate that model and seems like EY will leave this 5 A350-1000 on storage until they found a new home for them !
Is there anyone else with more infos ???
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Sun Jan 27, 2019 4:19 pm

MatheusLPV wrote:
I just learned that EY will be actually receiving the first 5 A350-1000 due to an strong dispute with Airbus which kinda forced Etihad to receive those frames ...
We have heard a lot of rumors after the first frame entered final assemble but in fact there is no crew receiving training to operate that model and seems like EY will leave this 5 A350-1000 on storage until they found a new home for them !
Is there anyone else with more infos ???


That is very interesting. I’d like to hear more if anyone knows. Parking brand new planes is quite an extreme measure
 
smartplane
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Sun Jan 27, 2019 6:33 pm

MatheusLPV wrote:
I just learned that EY will be actually receiving the first 5 A350-1000 due to an strong dispute with Airbus which kinda forced Etihad to receive those frames ...
We have heard a lot of rumors after the first frame entered final assemble but in fact there is no crew receiving training to operate that model and seems like EY will leave this 5 A350-1000 on storage until they found a new home for them !
Is there anyone else with more infos ???

The 'strong dispute' will be a legally binding contract.

If they complete customer acceptance flights, are stored with/without engines, and where stored, will give an insight into whether they have settled for the aircraft in full.

While destined for EY, the beneficial owner may be a finance consortium or leasor, not necessarily the same one for all five.

Presumably the first five are tranche 1, an unconditional order, while the balance are conditional.

Post-2007, A & B have progressively sharpened their contracts, both new and pre-existing. Each deferral, model hop, extension, etc generally results in a few additional customer concessions. And each OEM has an enforcement team.
 
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Sun Jan 27, 2019 8:57 pm

Will these planes have the full customer interior fittings?
 
sxf24
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Sun Jan 27, 2019 9:17 pm

Prost wrote:
Will these planes have the full customer interior fittings?


That will depend if EY has paid the interior suppliers or cancelled the contract.
 
musman9853
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Sun Jan 27, 2019 9:52 pm

who would be able to pick up 5 a35k at fairly short notice? the a35k is not a particulary popular plane.
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mig17
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:29 pm

musman9853 wrote:
who would be able to pick up 5 a35k at fairly short notice? the a35k is not a particulary popular plane.

BA is getting it's firsts A35K this year. They have 18 on order and are also getting a few more 77W. 5 more A35K could be a good fit after negotiation. Or for IB who already has the A359.
Virgin and Japan have 12 and 13 on order, they could also be interrested by a top up at advantageous terms.
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SEPilot
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:52 pm

I strongly suspect aircraft contracts are negotiated individually with no consideration for the other manufacturer. And they all have penalties for cancellation, which can usually be waived only if the manufacturer is in violation of the contract, either in performance or delivery time. So I suspect that if EY cancels part or all of the A350 order they will be paying penalties to Airbus. If they cancel all or part of the 77X order they will be paying penalties to Boeing. The two have nothing to do with each other. Naturally airlines are very reluctant to pay penalties, but it may be cheaper to pay them than to take an aircraft with which they cannot make money for some reason or other. But if they are in such bad shape that they cannot take the A350s then I would say that there are storm clouds on the horizon for the 77Xs as well. The A350s probably got hit first because they were due to be delivered first. If it was a choice between dumping one or the other, I would have suspected the 77Xs would have been on the chopping block first, being larger and more expensive.
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mig17
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Sun Jan 27, 2019 11:17 pm

SEPilot wrote:
I strongly suspect aircraft contracts are negotiated individually with no consideration for the other manufacturer. And they all have penalties for cancellation, which can usually be waived only if the manufacturer is in violation of the contract, either in performance or delivery time. So I suspect that if EY cancels part or all of the A350 order they will be paying penalties to Airbus. If they cancel all or part of the 77X order they will be paying penalties to Boeing. The two have nothing to do with each other. Naturally airlines are very reluctant to pay penalties, but it may be cheaper to pay them than to take an aircraft with which they cannot make money for some reason or other. But if they are in such bad shape that they cannot take the A350s then I would say that there are storm clouds on the horizon for the 77Xs as well. The A350s probably got hit first because they were due to be delivered first. If it was a choice between dumping one or the other, I would have suspected the 77Xs would have been on the chopping block first, being larger and more expensive.


Etihad investment in other ailines have not ended well and their own activity isn't doing so well either. They don't need all the widebodies they have on order. At the exception of 6 2006 unit, all Etihad 77W are less than 10 years old. They should keep them for at least another 10 years. They have been getting 789 and 781 and should continue to do so to replace A330 and keep developping. Even if the A330 are also young ... The A350 and 77X should be defered for the first and canceled for the second until the situation evolves, if it does.

A320
A321
A321NEO
789
781
77W

That should help them restructure their operation and when the 77W need replacement, then some A359 or A35K could be usefull.
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hz747300
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 12:41 am

If EY is 'forced' to take them, they could just create a leasing facility outsource the management thereof to a firm like Avalon, and send these birds out to airlines that want to boost capacity or modernize ahead of schedule.
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2175301
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 3:30 am

hz747300 wrote:
If EY is 'forced' to take them, they could just create a leasing facility outsource the management thereof to a firm like Avalon, and send these birds out to airlines that want to boost capacity or modernize ahead of schedule.


Or they could lease them through an existing lease company... No reason to set up another company (that cost money and has overhead too). Perhaps even sell them to a lease company, even at a small loss so that they do not have to worry about them in the future.

Lots of actual options... They only need to be parked if there is no demand for A350-1000's. Which would not speak well for the A350-1000's market position.

Have a great day,
 
T54A
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 4:39 am

musman9853 wrote:
who would be able to pick up 5 a35k at fairly short notice? the a35k is not a particulary popular plane.


SAA perhaps if they could sort out the financing. This would significantly reduce costs of their JNB-JFK and JNB-FRA operations.
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seabosdca
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 4:56 am

If true, this could be an attractive opportunity for BA, CX, or VS.
 
ctrabs0114
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 5:03 am

seabosdca wrote:
If true, this could be an attractive opportunity for BA, CX, or VS.


Even after they receive their 359s, I believe DL has a few more 767s which need to be replaced soon.
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 5:20 am

I see EY as likely to contact a leasing company to see who wants to manage these frames on their behalf. Could someone like CX or OZ (each already having A35Ks operated or on direct order) be potential customers? What about British Airways, as part of a lease-to-own deal, to accelerate B744 retirement?

EY should simplify to the following models, even if it means parking the A388s that it owns:

A320/A321 (ceo and neo)
B789/B78X
B77W

The B77Ws are 18 owned, 1 leased (sale-leaseback with Air Lease Corporation)
The B777Fs are 6 (all owned)
The B789/B78Xs are: 20 owned, 6 leased (leases are sale-leaseback)
The A321s are: 5 owned, 5 leased
The A320s are: 7 owned, 17 leased (including 2 sub-leased to Air Seychelles)

Etihad has parked a lot of passenger A330s; those should be put up for lease or sale (all parked frames so far are owned) as those are 233t frames. Someone like LH, MH, VA, or AC could use them for fleet expansion. I can't rule out DL either (remember that they bought a few B763s from GF once).
 
EChid
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 5:27 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I see EY as likely to contact a leasing company to see who wants to manage these frames on their behalf. Could someone like CX or OZ (each already having A35Ks operated or on direct order) be potential customers? What about British Airways, as part of a lease-to-own deal, to accelerate B744 retirement?

EY should simplify to the following models, even if it means parking the A388s that it owns:

A320/A321 (ceo and neo)
B789/B78X
B77W

The B77Ws are 18 owned, 1 leased (sale-leaseback with Air Lease Corporation)
The B777Fs are 6 (all owned)
The B789/B78Xs are: 20 owned, 6 leased (leases are sale-leaseback)
The A321s are: 5 owned, 5 leased
The A320s are: 7 owned, 17 leased (including 2 sub-leased to Air Seychelles)

Etihad has parked a lot of passenger A330s; those should be put up for lease or sale (all parked frames so far are owned) as those are 233t frames. Someone like LH, MH, VA, or AC could use them for fleet expansion. I can't rule out DL either (remember that they bought a few B763s from GF once).

OZ is an interesting thought. They have stated that they want/need to expand their long-haul routes and become less reliant on Korea-China traffic.

AC has all the 333s it wants. If it wanted more, it could also go back to SQ as there are many more where the 4 they took came from.

And I don't think that 'simplifying the fleet' saves enough money for it to be worthwhile parking planes that they won't be able to sell and still make key use of on some very key routes (LHR, SYD, etc.) at slot-restricted hubs. Simplifying the fleet is more useful before you add another fleet type (and all the training, maintenance support, interior work, etc. that goes into) than after. Parking an unsellable (and quite new) fleet is a seriously expensive proposition.
 
StudiodeKadent
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 5:36 am

Prost wrote:
Will these planes have the full customer interior fittings?


Etihad are, if they actually end up operating the A350s, almost certainly going to fit them out with basically the same products as the 787s. Their custom First and Business products could easily be adapted to the A350's cabin (which is, at armrest level, only 2.2" wider than the 787).
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 5:43 am

EChid wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
I see EY as likely to contact a leasing company to see who wants to manage these frames on their behalf. Could someone like CX or OZ (each already having A35Ks operated or on direct order) be potential customers? What about British Airways, as part of a lease-to-own deal, to accelerate B744 retirement?

EY should simplify to the following models, even if it means parking the A388s that it owns:

A320/A321 (ceo and neo)
B789/B78X
B77W

The B77Ws are 18 owned, 1 leased (sale-leaseback with Air Lease Corporation)
The B777Fs are 6 (all owned)
The B789/B78Xs are: 20 owned, 6 leased (leases are sale-leaseback)
The A321s are: 5 owned, 5 leased
The A320s are: 7 owned, 17 leased (including 2 sub-leased to Air Seychelles)

Etihad has parked a lot of passenger A330s; those should be put up for lease or sale (all parked frames so far are owned) as those are 233t frames. Someone like LH, MH, VA, or AC could use them for fleet expansion. I can't rule out DL either (remember that they bought a few B763s from GF once).

OZ is an interesting thought. They have stated that they want/need to expand their long-haul routes and become less reliant on Korea-China traffic.

AC has all the 333s it wants. If it wanted more, it could also go back to SQ as there are many more where the 4 they took came from.

And I don't think that 'simplifying the fleet' saves enough money for it to be worthwhile parking planes that they won't be able to sell and still make key use of on some very key routes (LHR, SYD, etc.) at slot-restricted hubs. Simplifying the fleet is more useful before you add another fleet type (and all the training, maintenance support, interior work, etc. that goes into) than after. Parking an unsellable (and quite new) fleet is a seriously expensive proposition.


SYD, LHR, and JFK could all use the B77W (JFK could also go back to double-daily B789 or 1x B77W and 1x B789 - increase of 67 seats over 1x A388). EY has B77W configurations of 380 (higher J), 412 (lower J), and 330 seats (3-class). Does EY need 1482 daily seats into LHR? The B77W and B789 (3-class) would be long-haul planes, while the B789 (2-class) and B78X could be the regional haulers and haulers into the Orient.

Also, the idea here would be to simplify to 2 engine suppliers as well...if EY had had CFM-powered Airbus narrow-bodies, it could have been down to 1.
Last edited by aemoreira1981 on Mon Jan 28, 2019 5:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
StudiodeKadent
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 5:43 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I see EY as likely to contact a leasing company to see who wants to manage these frames on their behalf. Could someone like CX or OZ (each already having A35Ks operated or on direct order) be potential customers? What about British Airways, as part of a lease-to-own deal, to accelerate B744 retirement?

EY should simplify to the following models, even if it means parking the A388s that it owns:


Etihad are unlikely to park their heavily-customized flagship jets. Seriously, the only airline with a more well-known A380 is Emirates. Etihad's brand is intertwined with that small fleet of A380s it has.

Etihad has parked a lot of passenger A330s; those should be put up for lease or sale (all parked frames so far are owned) as those are 233t frames. Someone like LH, MH, VA, or AC could use them for fleet expansion. I can't rule out DL either (remember that they bought a few B763s from GF once).


They're phasing out the A330-300s this year, and the A330-200s are essentially being replaced-and-upgauged with two-class 787-9s. I'm sure they're working on a sale or lease for those old frames.
 
EChid
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 5:57 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
SYD, LHR, and JFK could all use the B77W (JFK could also go back to double-daily B789 or 1x B77W and 1x B789 - increase of 67 seats over 1x A388). EY has B77W configurations of 380 (higher J), 412 (lower J), and 330 seats (3-class). Does EY need 1482 daily seats into LHR? The B77W and B789 (3-class) would be long-haul planes, while the B789 (2-class) and B78X could be the regional haulers and haulers into the Orient.

Also, the idea here would be to simplify to 2 engine suppliers as well...if EY had had CFM-powered Airbus narrow-bodies, it could have been down to 1.

Could they operate their route network without the A380? Absolutely. No question. But they've got it, so they are better off using it.

And downsizing at LHR just gives up more market share to QR and EK. The whole point of the A380 was airports like LHR.

And if JFK was better off with two daily-double 77Ws/789s, EY would operate two daily-double 77Ws/789s. Your plans re: the 789/781s is more or less exactly what EY is already doing with them.
 
juliuswong
Posts: 2021
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2016 3:22 am

Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 6:10 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I see EY as likely to contact a leasing company to see who wants to manage these frames on their behalf. Could someone like CX or OZ (each already having A35Ks operated or on direct order) be potential customers? What about British Airways, as part of a lease-to-own deal, to accelerate B744 retirement?

EY should simplify to the following models, even if it means parking the A388s that it owns:

A320/A321 (ceo and neo)
B789/B78X
B77W

The B77Ws are 18 owned, 1 leased (sale-leaseback with Air Lease Corporation)
The B777Fs are 6 (all owned)
The B789/B78Xs are: 20 owned, 6 leased (leases are sale-leaseback)
The A321s are: 5 owned, 5 leased
The A320s are: 7 owned, 17 leased (including 2 sub-leased to Air Seychelles)

Etihad has parked a lot of passenger A330s; those should be put up for lease or sale (all parked frames so far are owned) as those are 233t frames. Someone like LH, MH, VA, or AC could use them for fleet expansion. I can't rule out DL either (remember that they bought a few B763s from GF once).

Negative for MH. They are PW-exclusive for A330 fleet. Even the recent A332 addition are all PW4168A from airBerlin. A333 are PW4170.
- Life is a journey, travel it well -
 
skipness1E
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 11:29 am

This is Alex Macheras? He's not an analyst, he's a paid media performer who misrepresents himself as an analyst.
 
Flyglobal
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 1:23 pm

I have another Customer für probably 2 of the birds: German goverment. The want at least an A350-900 to help the weak A340s.


Flyglobal
 
716131
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 1:28 pm

For the A330, I heard they are reducing the A330 fleet with now over 10 goes out of fleet. I bet other airlines are welcome to leased former A330's when they want to. But if they are completely going to cancel the rest of A350's order, I think they will only fly the 777 and 787's for WB feeder while Airbus A320's for NB feeder.

WB= Wide-body
NB= Narrow-Body
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
 
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zkojq
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:43 pm

IMO it makes sense to sell the 77Ws ASAP to maximize resale value. Once Emirates starts taking delivery of 777-9s in 2020 and dumps a ton of 77Ws onto the used market, there will be very strong downward pressure on values.
First to fly the 787-9
 
majano
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:55 pm

skipness1E wrote:
This is Alex Macheras? He's not an analyst, he's a paid media performer who misrepresents himself as an analyst.

I would rather wait for the official result before dismissing any view on this topic. The EK 787-10 agreement taught me that, sometimes, even those analysts that do not hold strong admiration on A.Net can be correct.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 3:24 pm

majano wrote:
skipness1E wrote:
This is Alex Macheras? He's not an analyst, he's a paid media performer who misrepresents himself as an analyst.

I would rather wait for the official result before dismissing any view on this topic. The EK 787-10 agreement taught me that, sometimes, even those analysts that do not hold strong admiration on A.Net can be correct.

With the EK 787-10 order it was a matter of the analyst predicting this order for years before being lucky that EK actually ordered the plane in the end. Other of his predictions about EK fleets decisions have famously not come true.

In this case it's not just the analyst but also a complete silence from Etihad on the introduction of the A350, nothing on product or routes. It's being reported by several people that there's no crew training going on. This with the 1st delivery scheduled for later this year. It's already more than just one article by an analyst, even if this analyst was highly respected.

This A350 saga, it is already a saga especially after the early cancellations of their original order before firming up a new order some years later. The longer there is silence the more obvious it will be that they will not operate the A350.
 
majano
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 3:34 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
majano wrote:
skipness1E wrote:
This is Alex Macheras? He's not an analyst, he's a paid media performer who misrepresents himself as an analyst.

I would rather wait for the official result before dismissing any view on this topic. The EK 787-10 agreement taught me that, sometimes, even those analysts that do not hold strong admiration on A.Net can be correct.

With the EK 787-10 order it was a matter of the analyst predicting this order for years before being lucky that EK actually ordered the plane in the end. Other of his predictions about EK fleets decisions have famously not come true.

In this case it's not just the analyst but also a complete silence from Etihad on the introduction of the A350, nothing on product or routes. It's being reported by several people that there's no crew training going on. This with the 1st delivery scheduled for later this year. It's already more than just one article by an analyst, even if this analyst was highly respected.

This A350 saga, it is already a saga especially after the early cancellations of their original order before firming up a new order some years later. The longer there is silence the more obvious it will be that they will not operate the A350.

I cannot agree more, especially with your second and third paragraphs.
 
olle
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 5:15 pm

Does this increase the chances for 777x to be delivered?
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 5:26 pm

Given the limbo of EY's B777x orders,
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-etih ... SKBN1J92FF
I would say nothing about the A359 is predictive of delivery of the B777x to EY.
 
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Slug71
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 5:34 pm

olle wrote:
Does this increase the chances for 777x to be delivered?


Unlikely. That's the order they need least. They should not have ordered the A350 or 777x.
Or ordered a few A350s and not the newer 77Ws.
 
sciing
Posts: 205
Joined: Tue Feb 03, 2015 9:54 am

Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 5:41 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I see EY as likely to contact a leasing company to see who wants to manage these frames on their behalf. Could someone like CX or OZ (each already having A35Ks operated or on direct order) be potential customers? What about British Airways, as part of a lease-to-own deal, to accelerate B744 retirement?

EY should simplify to the following models, even if it means parking the A388s that it owns:

A320/A321 (ceo and neo)
B789/B78X
B77W

The B77Ws are 18 owned, 1 leased (sale-leaseback with Air Lease Corporation)
The B777Fs are 6 (all owned)
The B789/B78Xs are: 20 owned, 6 leased (leases are sale-leaseback)
The A321s are: 5 owned, 5 leased
The A320s are: 7 owned, 17 leased (including 2 sub-leased to Air Seychelles)

Etihad has parked a lot of passenger A330s; those should be put up for lease or sale (all parked frames so far are owned) as those are 233t frames. Someone like LH, MH, VA, or AC could use them for fleet expansion. I can't rule out DL either (remember that they bought a few B763s from GF once).

I heard other plans for the A333 here in DRS from EFW guys.
 
scotron11
Posts: 1432
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 5:47 pm

I find it quite remarkable that there has not been any official word from EY..Airbus or Boeing.

Especially Airbus with 62 A350s on the line. Notwithstanding they can place those frames with other carriers, it's a big chunk of their order book!
 
Bricktop
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 5:53 pm

olle wrote:
Does this increase the chances for 777x to be delivered?

That order has to be circling the drain now.
 
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Channex757
Posts: 2416
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 5:58 pm

scotron11 wrote:
I find it quite remarkable that there has not been any official word from EY..Airbus or Boeing.

Especially Airbus with 62 A350s on the line. Notwithstanding they can place those frames with other carriers, it's a big chunk of their order book!

The EY 773ER fleet is also getting up there in years and is at the point where replacement might be feasible. Thirteen years old isn't too young to be replaced and it's also midlife so the planes have value in the secondhand market.

EY would possibly be well served by a reduction in capacity and the lower operating costs of the A350 family, and putting the 773ER on to the secondhand market as there appears to be a good demand for midlife examples.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
Posts: 387
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 6:23 pm

skipness1E wrote:
This is Alex Macheras? He's not an analyst, he's a paid media performer who misrepresents himself as an analyst.


Very well said. He's the same clown who predicted great things for Primera Air with the A321neo and Cobalt Air....we know how those turned out!

For all we know, someone may have peddled this news his way....either way, whether Etihad cancels or not, this kid didn't 'break the news' as he claims.

Is he a (#fake-news) 'analyst' or a news reporter breaking news? He doesn't even know himself!
 
Armodeen
Posts: 1267
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2013 10:17 am

Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 6:42 pm

Channex757 wrote:
scotron11 wrote:
I find it quite remarkable that there has not been any official word from EY..Airbus or Boeing.

Especially Airbus with 62 A350s on the line. Notwithstanding they can place those frames with other carriers, it's a big chunk of their order book!

The EY 773ER fleet is also getting up there in years and is at the point where replacement might be feasible. Thirteen years old isn't too young to be replaced and it's also midlife so the planes have value in the secondhand market.

EY would possibly be well served by a reduction in capacity and the lower operating costs of the A350 family, and putting the 773ER on to the secondhand market as there appears to be a good demand for midlife examples.


Agreed. Especially as their first A35Ks are in production (rollout of the first is imminent!), and parking new aircraft would be eye wateringly expensive.

Sell the 77Ws, operate the 35Ks. Cancel everything else except maybe the 32Xneos. But you have to have capital available to cover the initial expense, I guess.

If they simply come out as white tails and get parked up without a new operator, we know Etihad is in big trouble.
 
george77300
Posts: 1131
Joined: Sat May 06, 2017 8:33 pm

Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 6:45 pm

Armodeen wrote:
Channex757 wrote:
scotron11 wrote:
I find it quite remarkable that there has not been any official word from EY..Airbus or Boeing.

Especially Airbus with 62 A350s on the line. Notwithstanding they can place those frames with other carriers, it's a big chunk of their order book!

The EY 773ER fleet is also getting up there in years and is at the point where replacement might be feasible. Thirteen years old isn't too young to be replaced and it's also midlife so the planes have value in the secondhand market.

EY would possibly be well served by a reduction in capacity and the lower operating costs of the A350 family, and putting the 773ER on to the secondhand market as there appears to be a good demand for midlife examples.


Agreed. Especially as their first A35Ks are in production (rollout of the first is imminent!), and parking new aircraft would be eye wateringly expensive.

Sell the 77Ws, operate the 35Ks. Cancel everything else except maybe the 32Xneos. But you have to have capital available to cover the initial expense, I guess.

If they simply come out as white tails and get parked up without a new operator, we know Etihad is in big trouble.


Well the first A35K has rolled out as a white tail....

Not looking good for A350 ops. 787s still coming currently although it makes sense to focus on one type and they may cancel some of those orders too.
 
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seabosdca
Posts: 6607
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 6:48 pm

Sell the 77Ws and sell or lease out the A350s, IMO. Also defer the 77Xs. Keep accepting 787s as fast as they can be financed.

In the long term EY would be a far more sustainable operation with a few A380s for the kangaroo route and everything else covered by 787s. Make some of the 787s more premium than the current configurations if necessary.
 
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Channex757
Posts: 2416
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Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Mon Jan 28, 2019 6:56 pm

EY is now flying the 787-10 on sectors where they would previously have used a 773ER. That must be saving them some dough.

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