FAQ

AS OF JULY 2018 THERE ARE CHANGES TO THE FORMAT OF THIS REPORT...SEE BELOW

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...prior year departures are now shown in brackets e.g. [0].

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5[4] JAN 4>5[4]
XXX Departure IATA code, YYY Arrival IATA code, Month, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of last week, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of this week, in brackets is the number of Average Departures/Day over the month that were scheduled one year earlier. So, it means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. It also means that there were 4 roundtrips the prior year in each month. No other months were changed. I average two directions.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
NEW CHANGE-Sometimes airlines do not load their schedules for the entire 330 day standard sales window. Southwest and many LCCs load their schedules for as little as 5 months into the future. When these flight are extended into a new sales month, it becomes a "schedule change". Previously, I have manually deleted these in many cases and replaced them with a Year-Over-Year compare. Effective immediately, this will now change. When a flight is loaded from 0 departures X departures, where X was the same the prior year, the record will not be shown. For example, if Delta loaded ATL-EGE MAR 0>1(1), it would not be shown because this additional flight does not represent a real year-over-year addition. Similarly, if B6 extended their schedule a record like this ATL-BOS JUL 0>4(4) would not be shown. It will be shown if the flight frequency changed from the prior year. So B6 ATL-BOS JUL 0>3(4) would be shown. If a partial month was loaded in a core schedule that became a full schedule month, those changes may be shown under this logic. For example, WN BNA-SEA 0.3>2(2). Because only a fraction of the month was previously loaded for sale, these changes will not be filtered out. I may, however, manually remove them to declutter.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month. The following criteria are used to show a change: 1) The change must be at least 6 roundtrips per month with no exceptions, 2) changes of at least 6/week are always shown, 3) routes that are added or dropped are shown subject to the change minimum, and 4) in all other cases routes must change by 20% to be shown. For example, if a route changed from 21/week to 18/week it would not be shown because the change is -14.3%. This is done to filter minor changes that occur in large numbers.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. If the route has more than 2 daily flights, departures are rounded, but in cases of less than 2 departures per day a fraction is shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
Seats are not shown. That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard or overlapping schedule periods that see the same flight number in two places at once. These cause flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

NOTE: More problems with the data feed this week. The data was corrupt for some reason. I kept waiting for it to be fixed, but didn't happen so I tried to clean up everything that looked broken. If they fix the data I will do a later post lower in the thread.

AA ANU-JFK JUL 0.7>0.9[0.9]
AA AUA-PHL APR 0.7>1.0[0.7] JUN 0.7>0.9[0.7] JUL 0.7>1.0[0.7]
AA BON-MIA APR 0.2>0.6[0] MAY 0.1>0.6[0] JUN 0.2>0.6[0.1] JUL 0.1>0.6[0.1]
AA CHA-DFW APR 2>3[1.9] MAY 2>3[1.9] JUN 2>3[3] JUL 2>3[3]
*AA CLT-FPO FEB 0.5>0.1[0.6] MAR 0.9>0.2[0.9] APR 0.9>0.1[0.9] MAY 0.7>0.1[0.7] JUN 0.7>0.2[0.3] JUL 0.7>0.1[0.1]
AA CLT-NAS MAY 3>2[2]
AA CLT-PUJ FEB 2>1.8[2] MAR 3>2[3]
AA DFW-GGG FEB 1.9>2[1.8] MAR 2>3[1.8] APR 2>3[1.9] MAY 2>3[2.0] JUN 2>3[2] JUL 2>3[3]
AA DFW-HSV APR 4>5[4] MAY 4>5[4] JUN 4>5[4] JUL 4>5[5]
AA DFW-PVR MAY 2>3[2.0]
AA DFW-RNO MAY 2>3[2] JUN 2>3[3] JUL 2>3[3]
AA DFW-SBA JUN 1.0>1.7[1.0] JUL 1.0>1.5[1.0]
AA DFW-TYS JUN 4>5[4] JUL 4>5[4]
AA ELH-MIA FEB 1.1>1.5[1.1] MAR 1.2>2[1.2]
AA JFK-PUJ FEB 0.5>0[0.5] MAR 1.0>0[1.0] APR 1.0>0[1.0]
*AA PHL-YQB JUN 0>1.7[1.6] JUL 0>2[1.9]

AS LAS-SEA JAN 8>9[7]
This seems odd. Gate blocking? Hearing there are big changes coming to the network planning staff at AS. We may see bigger changes.
AS PSP-SFO MAR 3>4[0] APR 3>5[0.7] MAY 3>5[3] JUN 1.9>5[1.8] JUL 1.7>5[1.9]
AS SAN-SJC MAR 4>2[3]
AS SAN-SMF APR 3>4[3] MAY 3>4[3] JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3]
AS SEA-SFO JAN 14>15[10]
AS SEA-SLC JUN 5>4[5] JUL 5>4[5]

DL ACK-LGA JUN 0>0.5[0.9] JUL 0>0.6[1.1]
DL ATL-BTR APR 6>7[7] MAY 6>7[7]
DL ATL-CAE MAY 7>8[7]
DL ATL-CHA APR 9>10[9] MAY 9>10[9]
DL ATL-CLT JUL 10>9[9]
DL ATL-DEN JUN 9>8[8]
DL ATL-EVV JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3]
DL ATL-FLL JUL 15>14[14]
DL ATL-MCO JUL 17>16[16]
*DL ATL-ONT APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>1.6[0] JUL 0>1.9[0]
DL ATL-PBI JUL 12>10[11]
DL ATL-SAV JUL 10>11[10]
DL ATL-SBN APR 4>5[4] MAY 4>5[4]
DL ATL-SFO APR 8>6[7] MAY 8>6[7]
DL ATL-TVC JUL 0>0.4[0.5]
DL ATL-TYS APR 8>9[8] MAY 8>9[8]
DL BGR-LGA MAR 2>3[3]
DL BIL-SLC JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3]
DL BNA-MSP MAY 4>5[4] JUN 4>5[5] JUL 4>5[5]
DL BOS-CUN APR 0.2>0.7[0.3]
*DL BOS-EDI MAY 0>0.3[0] JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0]
DL BOS-LGA JUL 14>12[11]
DL BTV-DTW JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3]
DL CVG-IAH APR 1.6>0.9[0.9]
DL CVG-PHX APR 1.0>0.4[0]
DL DCA-LGA JUL 10>9[9]
DL DTW-GRB APR 3>4[3] MAY 3>4[3]
DL DTW-GRR APR 6>7[6] MAY 6>7[6]
DL DTW-JFK MAY 4>5[4]
DL DTW-MSN APR 6>5[6]
DL DTW-PDX APR 1.5>1.1[1.0]
DL DTW-SNA APR 0.7>1.0[0.8] MAY 0.7>1.0[0.8]
DL FCA-MSP JUN 1.2>1.4[1.1]
*DL GRU-MCO MAR 1.0>0.3[1.0] APR 1.0>0[1.0] MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
DL HLN-SLC JUL 4>3[3]
*DL JFK-SNA JAN 0.7>0.1[0] FEB 0.7>0[0] MAR 0.7>0[0] APR 0.7>0[0] MAY 0.7>0[0] JUN 0.7>0[0] JUL 0.7>0[0]
DL LAS-SNA APR 3>4[4] MAY 3>4[4]
DL LGA-MVY JUN 0>0.4[0.8] JUL 0>0.6[1.0]
DL LGA-ORD JUL 13>14[11]
DL LGA-PWM MAR 3>2[4]
DL LGA-TYS FEB 1.3>1.6[0.8]
DL MCO-SEA JUL 1.0>1.5[1.7]
DL MSP-SMF APR 1.8>1.2[0.9]
DL MSP-TPA APR 2>3[3]
DL SAN-SEA JUL 4>5[5]
DL SEA-YEG APR 0.7>1.0[1.7] MAY 0.7>1.0[1.7]
DL SEA-YVR MAY 5>6[5]

DY AMS-JFK APR 0>1.0[0] MAY 0>1.0[0.5] JUN 0>1.0[0.6] JUL 0>1.0[0.6]

These could be part of the data corruption to please verify the ES/ET changes.
ES MAR-MIA NOV 0>0.4[0] DEC 0>0.4[0] JAN 0>0.4[0] FEB 0>0.4[0] MAR 0>0.5[0] APR 0>0.4[0] MAY 0>0.5[0] JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0]

ET DUB-LAX DEC 0.5>0.3[0.5] JAN 0.6>0[0.5] FEB 0.6>0[0.4] MAR 0.5>0[0.5] APR 0.6>0[0.6] MAY 0.6>0[0.6] JUN 0.6>0[0.4] JUL 0.6>0[0.4]

UA CGI-PAH JAN 1.5>1.1[0] FEB 1.9>1.4[0] MAR 1.8>1.3[0] APR 1.9>1.4[0] MAY 1.9>1.4[0] JUN 1.8>1.3[0] JUL 1.9>1.4[0]
UA DVL-JMS NOV 1.4>0.9[1.3] DEC 1.4>0.9[1.3] JAN 1.4>0.9[1.3] FEB 1.4>0.9[1.4] MAR 1.3>0.9[1.4] APR 1.4>0.9[1.4] MAY 1.4>0.9[1.3] JUN 1.4>0.9[1.4] JUL 1.4>0.9[1.3]
UA IAH-MOT NOV 0.2>0[0.2]

Y4 ABQ-GDL APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>0.3[0] JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]
Y4 AUS-GDL NOV 0.3>0.1[0.2] DEC 0.3>0.0[0.3] JAN 0.3>0.1[0.3] FEB 0.3>0[0.3] MAR 0.3>0[0.3] APR 0.3>0[0.3] MAY 0.3>0[0.3] JUN 0.3>0[0.4] JUL 0.3>0[0.4]
Y4 BJX-SJC APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>0.3[0] JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]
Y4 BJX-SMF APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>0.3[0] JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]
Y4 CLT-GDL APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>0.3[0] JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]
Y4 DEN-GDL DEC 0.4>0.6[0.5]
Y4 DEN-MEX DEC 0.2>0.7[0.6] JAN 0.1>0.6[0.5] FEB 0.1>0.4[0.4] MAR 0.2>0.5[0.5] APR 0.1>0.4[0.4] MAY 0.1>0.4[0.1] JUN 0.2>0.4[0.1] JUL 0.1>0.4[0.7]
Y4 DFW-GDL DEC 0.4>0.7[0.6]
Y4 FAT-GDL DEC 1.0>1.4[1.4]
Y4 GDL-OAK DEC 0.8>1.1[1.0]
Y4 GDL-PDX JAN 0.5>0.8[0.6]
Y4 GDL-SFO FEB 0.3>0[0.5] MAR 0.3>0[0.6] APR 0.3>0[0.3] MAY 0.3>0[0.3] JUN 0.3>0[0.3] JUL 0.3>0[0.3]
Y4 GDL-SJC APR 0.7>1.0[0.7] MAY 0.7>1.0[0.7] JUN 0.7>1.0[0.7] JUL 0.7>1.0[0.8]
Y4 GDL-SMF DEC 0.9>1.1[1.2]
Y4 JFK-MEX NOV 1.0>0.8[1.9] DEC 1.0>0.8[1.7] JAN 1.0>0.3[1.9] FEB 1.0>0[1.3] MAR 1.0>0[1.2] APR 1.0>0[1.3] MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
Y4 LAS-MEX APR 0.8>0[0.9] MAY 0.9>0[0.8] JUN 0.9>0[0.9] JUL 0.8>0[0.8]
Y4 LAX-MEX APR 1.0>0.2[2] MAY 1.0>0.2[1.0] JUN 1.0>0.1[1.0] JUL 1.0>0.2[1.0]
Y4 MCO-MEX APR 0>0.8[0.3] MAY 0>0.9[0.1] JUN 0>0.9[0] JUL 0>0.8[0.5]
Y4 MEX-MIA APR 0.3>1.0[0.3] MAY 0.3>1.0[0.3] JUN 0.3>1.0[0.3] JUL 0.3>1.0[0.2]
Y4 MEX-SFO FEB 0.3>0[0.5] MAR 0.3>0[0.4] APR 0.3>0[0.5] MAY 0.3>0[0.3] JUN 0.3>0[0.3] JUL 0.3>0[0.4]
Y4 MLM-OAK DEC 0.5>0.7[0.6]
Y4 MLM-SJC JAN 0.3>0.5[0.3] FEB 0.3>0.6[0.3] MAR 0.3>0.6[0.3] APR 0.3>0.6[0.3] MAY 0.3>0.5[0.3] JUN 0.3>0.6[0.3] JUL 0.3>0.5[0.3]

Enilria- thank you as always. Always enjoy this thread and appreciate you providing this information every week.

kavok wrote:

Enilria- thank you as always. Always enjoy this thread and appreciate you providing this information every week.

Thanks Kavok

AA going double daily on SBA/DFW with CR9 instead of 1x with mainline, it looks like (at least in the middle of next summer).

Jeez, DL lasted on JFK-SNA about as long as AA lasted on JFK-DEN.

Enilria,, thanks as always for doing what you can with what you're given to work with. Your efforts are very much appreciated, and always awaited on Sundays!

AS SAN-SJC MAR 4>2[3]
AS SAN-SMF APR 3>4[3] MAY 3>4[3] JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3]

Yes, there's a big problem with at least some of the AS stuff. Their online skeds -- as well as the booking engine -- show normal service in March between SAN and SJC except that between 3/10 and 3/22, there is not a single flight listed! Yikes! (The SAN-SMF sked is okay, AFAICT.)

bb

I think SMF would be a good place for AS to put some additional resources. WN has a lock on a lot of this traffic and there’s probably room for a little more competition.

AS LAS-SEA JAN 8>9[7]
This seems odd. Gate blocking? Hearing there are big changes coming to the network planning staff at AS. We may see bigger changes.
AS PSP-SFO MAR 3>4[0] APR 3>5[0.7] MAY 3>5[3] JUN 1.9>5[1.8] JUL 1.7>5[1.9]
AS SAN-SJC MAR 4>2[3]
AS SAN-SMF APR 3>4[3] MAY 3>4[3] JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3]
AS SEA-SFO JAN 14>15[10]
AS SEA-SLC JUN 5>4[5] JUL 5>4[5]

Interesting changes. Should they stick... Looks like PSP is going all E75 while the SMF add is a 739. SJC, at least in summer will be a mix of E75, Airbus, and Boeing

LAXBUR wrote:

AS LAS-SEA JAN 8>9[7]
This seems odd. Gate blocking? Hearing there are big changes coming to the network planning staff at AS. We may see bigger changes.
AS PSP-SFO MAR 3>4[0] APR 3>5[0.7] MAY 3>5[3] JUN 1.9>5[1.8] JUL 1.7>5[1.9]
AS SAN-SJC MAR 4>2[3]
AS SAN-SMF APR 3>4[3] MAY 3>4[3] JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3]
AS SEA-SFO JAN 14>15[10]
AS SEA-SLC JUN 5>4[5] JUL 5>4[5]

Interesting changes. Should they stick... Looks like PSP is going all E75 while the SMF add is a 739. SJC, at least in summer will be a mix of E75, Airbus, and Boeing

If AS is going to be shaking up the network planning department, it’d make sense to just put some capacity somewhere as gate holders until the new guys can work their own plan.

LAXBUR wrote:

AS LAS-SEA JAN 8>9[7]
AS PSP-SFO MAR 3>4[0] APR 3>5[0.7] MAY 3>5[3] JUN 1.9>5[1.8] JUL 1.7>5[1.9]
AS SAN-SJC MAR 4>2[3]
AS SAN-SMF APR 3>4[3] MAY 3>4[3] JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3]
AS SEA-SFO JAN 14>15[10]
AS SEA-SLC JUN 5>4[5] JUL 5>4[5]

Interesting changes. Should they stick... Looks like PSP is going all E75 while the SMF add is a 739. SJC, at least in summer will be a mix of E75, Airbus, and Boeing

Yes, while awaiting this OAG thread to appear, I just spent a couple of hours going thru the AS skeds on a hunch and yes, SAN-SMF sees in increase in flights to 4/day, with one of them being a 737! SAN-SJC, starting 3/22 -- when service resumes! -- will supposedly see all 3 a/c types on the 4 daily r/t! I just hope what we see is accurate

Good stuff.

bb

SANFan wrote:

LAXBUR wrote:

AS LAS-SEA JAN 8>9[7]
AS PSP-SFO MAR 3>4[0] APR 3>5[0.7] MAY 3>5[3] JUN 1.9>5[1.8] JUL 1.7>5[1.9]
AS SAN-SJC MAR 4>2[3]
AS SAN-SMF APR 3>4[3] MAY 3>4[3] JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3]
AS SEA-SFO JAN 14>15[10]
AS SEA-SLC JUN 5>4[5] JUL 5>4[5]

Interesting changes. Should they stick... Looks like PSP is going all E75 while the SMF add is a 739. SJC, at least in summer will be a mix of E75, Airbus, and Boeing

Yes, while awaiting this OAG thread to appear, I just spent a couple of hours going thru the AS skeds on a hunch and yes, SAN-SMF sees in increase in flights to 4/day, with one of them being a 737! SAN-SJC, starting 3/22 -- when service resumes! -- will supposedly see all 3 a/c types on the 4 daily r/t! I just hope what we see is accurate

Good stuff.

bb

For purely selfish reasons I wish there would be a BUR-SMF add (since I believe there's three airlines on LAX-SMF). But it sounds like BUR-SJC is having a rough time according to people on here.

LAXBUR wrote:

SANFan wrote:

LAXBUR wrote:

AS LAS-SEA JAN 8>9[7]
AS PSP-SFO MAR 3>4[0] APR 3>5[0.7] MAY 3>5[3] JUN 1.9>5[1.8] JUL 1.7>5[1.9]
AS SAN-SJC MAR 4>2[3]
AS SAN-SMF APR 3>4[3] MAY 3>4[3] JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3]
AS SEA-SFO JAN 14>15[10]
AS SEA-SLC JUN 5>4[5] JUL 5>4[5]

Interesting changes. Should they stick... Looks like PSP is going all E75 while the SMF add is a 739. SJC, at least in summer will be a mix of E75, Airbus, and Boeing

Yes, while awaiting this OAG thread to appear, I just spent a couple of hours going thru the AS skeds on a hunch and yes, SAN-SMF sees in increase in flights to 4/day, with one of them being a 737! SAN-SJC, starting 3/22 -- when service resumes! -- will supposedly see all 3 a/c types on the 4 daily r/t! I just hope what we see is accurate

Good stuff.

bb

For purely selfish reasons I wish there would be a BUR-SMF add (since I believe there's three airlines on LAX-SMF). But it sounds like BUR-SJC is having a rough time according to people on here.

Never say never.

LAXBUR wrote:

[For purely selfish reasons I wish there would be a BUR-SMF add (since I believe there's three airlines on LAX-SMF). But it sounds like BUR-SJC is having a rough time according to people on here.

I can't believe SMF-BUR it isn't on AS's 'List' but it might be a while before they work their way to it.

I expect that eventually AAG will be in most all of the WN intra-CA markets, plus more of their own.

bb

In another thread, a near obituary for SJC international service. AM drops GDL, buuuut...

New?
Y4 BJX-SMF APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>0.3[0] JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]

Increase
Y4 GDL-SJC APR 0.7>1.0[0.7] MAY 0.7>1.0[0.7] JUN 0.7>1.0[0.7] JUL 0.7>1.0[0.8]

Increase?
Y4 MLM-SJC JAN 0.3>0.5[0.3] FEB 0.3>0.6[0.3] MAR 0.3>0.6[0.3] APR 0.3>0.6[0.3] MAY 0.3>0.5[0.3] JUN 0.3>0.6[0.3] JUL 0.3>0.5[0.3]

N292UX wrote:

Jeez, DL lasted on JFK-SNA about as long as AA lasted on JFK-DEN.

DL lost a slot in SNA, so the easiest thing to dump was the new JFK service.

Good solid week for Detroit but what's up with this ATL losing 2 SFO frequencies ?

DL ATL-SFO APR 8>6[7] MAY 8>6[7]

LAXBUR wrote:

But it sounds like BUR-SJC is having a rough time according to people on here.

It goes up to 4x daily on March 10, so it can't be doing that badly.

Thanks as always enilria for this excellent thread!

What do you think Delta is going for with Boston-Edinburgh? I fully understand how the Dublin market works, but is this flight summer seasonal for higher end tourism to Scotland? Or is it for Scotland-New England business connections which are otherwise underserved? Is it just the tight summer mid-May to mid-September? Interesting that it is showing lie-flat D1 equipped 757, so this is not an opportunistic use of a domestic 757 such as KEF or PDL, and I am just wondering if they are looking for high end leisure or business traffic here.

Thanks again enilria, favorite threads on this forum! I appreciate your hard work every week.

Interesting that AA is cutting out JFK-PUJ from Feb to April. Is this the end of AA on JFK-PUJ? Not many island routes left for AA out of JFK.

As for the entire discussion on intra-cali out of BUR and SAN. Here are some numbers to put things into context.
CityPair Dist CarrierBoard AvgFare NSFare % NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM
SANSJC 417 OO 40423 109.29 109.29 100.00% 76.0 88.06% 96.24 0.2308
SANSJC 417 WN 248493 128.25 128.03 99.83% 150.8 81.29% 104.08 0.2496
SANSMF 480 OO 31023 113.09 112.66 99.35% 76.0 86.85% 97.84 0.2038
SANSMF 480 QX 3094 98.43 98.18 99.73% 76.0 84.81% 83.27 0.1735
SANSMF 480 WN 256973 129.52 129.25 99.83% 154.3 86.91% 112.33 0.2340
BURSJC 296 OO 16045 92.68 92.68 100.00% 76.0 62.65% 58.06 0.1961
BURSJC 296 QX 8069 99.55 99.55 100.00% 76.0 68.94% 68.63 0.2319
BURSJC 296 WN 145927 124.99 124.78 99.88% 143.1 70.52% 87.99 0.2973

You have to consider that AS is flying 76 seaters in all of these markets, which would have at least 20% higher CASM than 150 seaters that WN operates. Those sub $100 yields are really not good. Especially on a focus city-focus city route like SAN-SJC. BUR-SJC is a route that AS hemorrhages money on. The only comparable numbers to that are the B6 yields out of LGB. BUR-SMF would be a terrible idea.

klm617 wrote:

Good solid week for Detroit but what's up with this ATL losing 2 SFO frequencies ?

DL ATL-SFO APR 8>6[7] MAY 8>6[7]

See, I view that as losing 1. But, that’s why I don’t bother very much with this thread.

tphuang wrote:

Thanks again enilria, favorite threads on this forum! I appreciate your hard work every week.

Interesting that AA is cutting out JFK-PUJ from Feb to April. Is this the end of AA on JFK-PUJ? Not many island routes left for AA out of JFK.

As for the entire discussion on intra-cali out of BUR and SAN. Here are some numbers to put things into context.
CityPair Dist CarrierBoard AvgFare NSFare % NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM
SANSJC 417 OO 40423 109.29 109.29 100.00% 76.0 88.06% 96.24 0.2308
SANSJC 417 WN 248493 128.25 128.03 99.83% 150.8 81.29% 104.08 0.2496
SANSMF 480 OO 31023 113.09 112.66 99.35% 76.0 86.85% 97.84 0.2038
SANSMF 480 QX 3094 98.43 98.18 99.73% 76.0 84.81% 83.27 0.1735
SANSMF 480 WN 256973 129.52 129.25 99.83% 154.3 86.91% 112.33 0.2340
BURSJC 296 OO 16045 92.68 92.68 100.00% 76.0 62.65% 58.06 0.1961
BURSJC 296 QX 8069 99.55 99.55 100.00% 76.0 68.94% 68.63 0.2319
BURSJC 296 WN 145927 124.99 124.78 99.88% 143.1 70.52% 87.99 0.2973

You have to consider that AS is flying 76 seaters in all of these markets, which would have at least 20% higher CASM than 150 seaters that WN operates. Those sub $100 yields are really not good. Especially on a focus city-focus city route like SAN-SJC. BUR-SJC is a route that AS hemorrhages money on. The only comparable numbers to that are the B6 yields out of LGB. BUR-SMF would be a terrible idea.

Well, they can keep cutting until there's nothing left outside of SEA or they can roll up their sleeves and fight. BURSJC is a terrible idea too but they fly it. SANSMF is a terrible idea too but they fly it. Maybe they'll cut and run. Maybe they'll fight. Who knows?

jetero wrote:

klm617 wrote:

Good solid week for Detroit but what's up with this ATL losing 2 SFO frequencies ?

DL ATL-SFO APR 8>6[7] MAY 8>6[7]

See, I view that as losing 1. But, that’s why I don’t bother very much with this thread.

I see it as losing 1 as well. That's the whole point in offering the (previous year) number - so you can compare apples to apples.

Glad to see DTW-SNA back up to one daily. 90+ percent load factors. Hoping to see SJC next.

PlanesNTrains wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Thanks again enilria, favorite threads on this forum! I appreciate your hard work every week.

Interesting that AA is cutting out JFK-PUJ from Feb to April. Is this the end of AA on JFK-PUJ? Not many island routes left for AA out of JFK.

As for the entire discussion on intra-cali out of BUR and SAN. Here are some numbers to put things into context.
CityPair Dist CarrierBoard AvgFare NSFare % NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM
SANSJC 417 OO 40423 109.29 109.29 100.00% 76.0 88.06% 96.24 0.2308
SANSJC 417 WN 248493 128.25 128.03 99.83% 150.8 81.29% 104.08 0.2496
SANSMF 480 OO 31023 113.09 112.66 99.35% 76.0 86.85% 97.84 0.2038
SANSMF 480 QX 3094 98.43 98.18 99.73% 76.0 84.81% 83.27 0.1735
SANSMF 480 WN 256973 129.52 129.25 99.83% 154.3 86.91% 112.33 0.2340
BURSJC 296 OO 16045 92.68 92.68 100.00% 76.0 62.65% 58.06 0.1961
BURSJC 296 QX 8069 99.55 99.55 100.00% 76.0 68.94% 68.63 0.2319
BURSJC 296 WN 145927 124.99 124.78 99.88% 143.1 70.52% 87.99 0.2973

You have to consider that AS is flying 76 seaters in all of these markets, which would have at least 20% higher CASM than 150 seaters that WN operates. Those sub $100 yields are really not good. Especially on a focus city-focus city route like SAN-SJC. BUR-SJC is a route that AS hemorrhages money on. The only comparable numbers to that are the B6 yields out of LGB. BUR-SMF would be a terrible idea.

Well, they can keep cutting until there's nothing left outside of SEA or they can roll up their sleeves and fight. BURSJC is a terrible idea too but they fly it. SANSMF is a terrible idea too but they fly it. Maybe they'll cut and run. Maybe they'll fight. Who knows?

SANSMF/SANSJC are fine. They are loosing money, but they can probably handle it. The day one of those 2 get canceled will be the day that WN has officially defeated AS. I see BUR-SJC as a barometer. You know they are going to loose a lot of money running it. So if they are running it, that means they still very committed to this intra-west coast battle.

PlanesNTrains wrote:

jetero wrote:

klm617 wrote:

Good solid week for Detroit but what's up with this ATL losing 2 SFO frequencies ?

DL ATL-SFO APR 8>6[7] MAY 8>6[7]

See, I view that as losing 1. But, that’s why I don’t bother very much with this thread.

I see it as losing 1 as well. That's the whole point in offering the (previous year) number - so you can compare apples to apples.

In fairness, that’s a very new (and much appreciated) feature, but not sure the historical audience has keyed in.

DL can add a flight from ATL to SFO (or anywhere else) 8 months in advance with zero intention of actually flying it ...

There is a limit to AS' stupidity- they are one of the last airlines to come out of negative YOY PRASM because they didn't know where to put 8% seat growth every year- challenging supposed WN monopolies in secondary California city pairs hasn't worked so far.

jetero wrote:

klm617 wrote:

Good solid week for Detroit but what's up with this ATL losing 2 SFO frequencies ?

DL ATL-SFO APR 8>6[7] MAY 8>6[7]

See, I view that as losing 1. But, that’s why I don’t bother very much with this thread.

Why not just quit reading it and then you won't be bothered having to comment. It's the one posting I look forward too, even though it takes longer for enrila to put online, it's no longer my Sunday morning coffee read.

BenflysDTW wrote:

Glad to see DTW-SNA back up to one daily. 90+ percent load factors. Hoping to see SJC next.

SJC is starting on November 15.

SANFan wrote:

Enilria,, thanks as always for doing what you can with what you're given to work with. Your efforts are very much appreciated, and always awaited on Sundays!

AS SAN-SJC MAR 4>2[3]
AS SAN-SMF APR 3>4[3] MAY 3>4[3] JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3]

Yes, there's a big problem with at least some of the AS stuff. Their online skeds -- as well as the booking engine -- show normal service in March between SAN and SJC except that between 3/10 and 3/22, there is not a single flight listed! Yikes! (The SAN-SMF sked is okay, AFAICT.)

bb

Thanks

TW870 wrote:

Thanks as always enilria for this excellent thread!

What do you think Delta is going for with Boston-Edinburgh?

I think generally Delta knows three things:
1) JetBlue is the strongest carrier in Boston
2) JetBlue basically connects nothing in BOS and it is VERY hard to dominate a city without using connecting flow to defend your markets
3) JetBlue is not ready to fly Atlantic routes so Delta has a window to use Atlantic connecting flow to their advantage against B6.

tphuang wrote:

Thanks again enilria, favorite threads on this forum! I appreciate your hard work every week.

JFK-SNA ended pretty fast. There is a small set of people willing to pay a premium for a non-stops to New York from Orange County. The problem is Delta lacked the frequency i think they needed.

United with 3x daily is just too convenient to leave if you are a heavy hitter on this route. United kept all of the frequent flyers on this route. Historically a very hard route to get an upgrade on too. I have been a frequent flyer on this route and it's not uncommon to see entire the first cabin totally full a week + ahead and upgrade lists are half the plane are elites onboard. United has a pretty loyal following goes all the way back to the continental days on this route. It's a perfect 737-700 route for them. I don't think anyone can make that route work unless you have the frequency those flyers need. 1x a day just doesn't cut it. Very business heavy route.

Boston92 wrote:

AA going double daily on SBA/DFW with CR9 instead of 1x with mainline, it looks like (at least in the middle of next summer).

I think that is a huge win for SBA. Allows for alot more time options and connections at DFW. Easier to be a loyal SBA flyer if you have options and not make the long trip to LAX by necessity.

enilria wrote:

SANFan wrote:

Enilria,, thanks as always for doing what you can with what you're given to work with. Your efforts are very much appreciated, and always awaited on Sundays!

AS SAN-SJC MAR 4>2[3]
AS SAN-SMF APR 3>4[3] MAY 3>4[3] JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3]

Yes, there's a big problem with at least some of the AS stuff. Their online skeds -- as well as the booking engine -- show normal service in March between SAN and SJC except that between 3/10 and 3/22, there is not a single flight listed! Yikes! (The SAN-SMF sked is okay, AFAICT.)

bb

Thanks

TW870 wrote:

Thanks as always enilria for this excellent thread!

What do you think Delta is going for with Boston-Edinburgh?

I think generally Delta knows three things:
1) JetBlue is the strongest carrier in Boston
2) JetBlue basically connects nothing in BOS and it is VERY hard to dominate a city without using connecting flow to defend your markets
3) JetBlue is not ready to fly Atlantic routes so Delta has a window to use Atlantic connecting flow to their advantage against B6.

tphuang wrote:

Thanks again enilria, favorite threads on this forum! I appreciate your hard work every week.

I echo the thanks of many for the awesome work you put into these threads each week. I would add a #4 to your list in the fact that DI is ending PVD-EDI before the summer season begins , so there is some demand that was generated from that flight that could potentially switch to DL, tie that with the 3 above, and you've got a case, I know a couple of people at least who will/are delighted to see this one turn up.

tphuang wrote:

PlanesNTrains wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Thanks again enilria, favorite threads on this forum! I appreciate your hard work every week.

Interesting that AA is cutting out JFK-PUJ from Feb to April. Is this the end of AA on JFK-PUJ? Not many island routes left for AA out of JFK.

As for the entire discussion on intra-cali out of BUR and SAN. Here are some numbers to put things into context.
CityPair Dist CarrierBoard AvgFare NSFare % NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM
SANSJC 417 OO 40423 109.29 109.29 100.00% 76.0 88.06% 96.24 0.2308
SANSJC 417 WN 248493 128.25 128.03 99.83% 150.8 81.29% 104.08 0.2496
SANSMF 480 OO 31023 113.09 112.66 99.35% 76.0 86.85% 97.84 0.2038
SANSMF 480 QX 3094 98.43 98.18 99.73% 76.0 84.81% 83.27 0.1735
SANSMF 480 WN 256973 129.52 129.25 99.83% 154.3 86.91% 112.33 0.2340
BURSJC 296 OO 16045 92.68 92.68 100.00% 76.0 62.65% 58.06 0.1961
BURSJC 296 QX 8069 99.55 99.55 100.00% 76.0 68.94% 68.63 0.2319
BURSJC 296 WN 145927 124.99 124.78 99.88% 143.1 70.52% 87.99 0.2973

You have to consider that AS is flying 76 seaters in all of these markets, which would have at least 20% higher CASM than 150 seaters that WN operates. Those sub $100 yields are really not good. Especially on a focus city-focus city route like SAN-SJC. BUR-SJC is a route that AS hemorrhages money on. The only comparable numbers to that are the B6 yields out of LGB. BUR-SMF would be a terrible idea.

Well, they can keep cutting until there's nothing left outside of SEA or they can roll up their sleeves and fight. BURSJC is a terrible idea too but they fly it. SANSMF is a terrible idea too but they fly it. Maybe they'll cut and run. Maybe they'll fight. Who knows?

SANSMF/SANSJC are fine. They are loosing money, but they can probably handle it. The day one of those 2 get canceled will be the day that WN has officially defeated AS. I see BUR-SJC as a barometer. You know they are going to loose a lot of money running it. So if they are running it, that means they still very committed to this intra-west coast battle.

Well I guess that was my point. If they are "committed to this intra-west coast battle", then adding BURSMF - terrible as it may be - might still be part of their strategy. I'm not predicting it or wishing it, just not sure if they can avoid some of these battles if they want to play ball.

N292UX wrote:

Jeez, DL lasted on JFK-SNA about as long as AA lasted on JFK-DEN.

Or as long as AA lasted on JFK-SNA. They operated this route with 757s in the mid-2000s. It didn't work.

Wow, first I'd heard about Volaris dropping SFO. That is a shame, MEX does not surprise me with how few frequencies Volaris had reduced the route from it's peak and with 4 carriers on the route, but I'd thought of GDL as a bit undeserved ever since UA dropped the route and Volaris cut frequencies.

I wonder if Viva Aerobus will give the Bay Area a try in the near future.

Are you kidding? Hey blue connects a ton in Boston. It’s not all just local traffic. They connect a TON to and from international carriers such as emirates, Aer Lingus, Tap Portugal, azores Air, etc. and a decent amount to itself. I can’t tell you the number of bos-dca flights I’ve beeen on that had at least 20 people from from lax or sfo. And in the summer when they operate their own metal to ACK the majority on that flight are connecting from all over the b6 network. B6 connects a ton at Logan.

quote="enilria"]

SANFan wrote:

Enilria,, thanks as always for doing what you can with what you're given to work with. Your efforts are very much appreciated, and always awaited on Sundays!

AS SAN-SJC MAR 4>2[3]
AS SAN-SMF APR 3>4[3] MAY 3>4[3] JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3]

Yes, there's a big problem with at least some of the AS stuff. Their online skeds -- as well as the booking engine -- show normal service in March between SAN and SJC except that between 3/10 and 3/22, there is not a single flight listed! Yikes! (The SAN-SMF sked is okay, AFAICT.)

bb

Thanks

TW870 wrote:

Thanks as always enilria for this excellent thread!

What do you think Delta is going for with Boston-Edinburgh?

I think generally Delta knows three things:
1) JetBlue is the strongest carrier in Boston
2) JetBlue basically connects nothing in BOS and it is VERY hard to dominate a city without using connecting flow to defend your markets
3) JetBlue is not ready to fly Atlantic routes so Delta has a window to use Atlantic connecting flow to their advantage against B6.

tphuang wrote:

Thanks again enilria, favorite threads on this forum! I appreciate your hard work every week.

[/quote]

The DL JFK-SNA termination is a direct fall-out from the recently released SNA slot allocation. Basically, DL had to drop a flight, and they chose to end JFK.

There is a lot more discussion around the SNA slot allocation here:
viewtopic.php?t=1404863

jasoncrh wrote:

Are you kidding? Hey blue connects a ton in Boston. It’s not all just local traffic. They connect a TON to and from international carriers such as emirates, Aer Lingus, Tap Portugal, azores Air, etc. and a decent amount to itself. I can’t tell you the number of bos-dca flights I’ve beeen on that had at least 20 people from from lax or sfo. And in the summer when they operate their own metal to ACK the majority on that flight are connecting from all over the b6 network. B6 connects a ton at Logan.

quote="enilria"]

SANFan wrote:

Enilria,, thanks as always for doing what you can with what you're given to work with. Your efforts are very much appreciated, and always awaited on Sundays!

AS SAN-SJC MAR 4>2[3]
AS SAN-SMF APR 3>4[3] MAY 3>4[3] JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3]

Yes, there's a big problem with at least some of the AS stuff. Their online skeds -- as well as the booking engine -- show normal service in March between SAN and SJC except that between 3/10 and 3/22, there is not a single flight listed! Yikes! (The SAN-SMF sked is okay, AFAICT.)

bb

Thanks

TW870 wrote:

Thanks as always enilria for this excellent thread!

What do you think Delta is going for with Boston-Edinburgh?

I think generally Delta knows three things:
1) JetBlue is the strongest carrier in Boston
2) JetBlue basically connects nothing in BOS and it is VERY hard to dominate a city without using connecting flow to defend your markets
3) JetBlue is not ready to fly Atlantic routes so Delta has a window to use Atlantic connecting flow to their advantage against B6.

tphuang wrote:

Thanks again enilria, favorite threads on this forum! I appreciate your hard work every week.

[/quote]

Interesting. In the JetBlue network thread, I was told otherwise. You learn something new.....

10x on CHA-ATL is alot of frequency, especially since this route has seen a ton of up gauging in recent years. I remember when it was all CRJ's, now they have MD88's, CR9's and CRJ's. Nice growth in a smaller market. Not sure how much more capacity CHA as an airport can absorb, they are busting at the seems during various points of the day (Especially the morning push).

Interesting that DL is cancelling SNA-JFK before it even starts...must have lost some slots...thought it was starting in January. Anyone know why it’s not happening?

KLMatSJC wrote:

BenflysDTW wrote:

Glad to see DTW-SNA back up to one daily. 90+ percent load factors. Hoping to see SJC next.

SJC is starting on November 15.

Old news lol. It’s not daily though.

Art at ISP wrote:

Interesting that DL is cancelling SNA-JFK before it even starts...must have lost some slots...thought it was starting in January. Anyone know why it’s not happening?

As noted above in this thread, they lost a slot at SNA so decided to cut the JFK frequency.

enilria wrote:

DL ATL-EVV JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3]

Any idea what aircraft types will be doing this?? Currently 1x 717 / 2x CR2.

Hoping the increase in frequency doesn't signal losing the 717, for 4x CR2 instead.

Transpac787 wrote:

enilria wrote:

DL ATL-EVV JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3]

Any idea what aircraft types will be doing this?? Currently 1x 717 / 2x CR2.

Hoping the increase in frequency doesn't signal losing the 717, for 4x CR2 instead.

Dummy booking would appear to show 3x CRJ 1x 717. So just increasing capacity by 50 seats daily

Cointrin330 wrote:

N292UX wrote:

Jeez, DL lasted on JFK-SNA about as long as AA lasted on JFK-DEN.

Or as long as AA lasted on JFK-SNA. They operated this route with 757s in the mid-2000s. It didn't work.

TWA also did it. SNA-JFK has been done at least three times that I know of.

BenflysDTW wrote:

KLMatSJC wrote:

BenflysDTW wrote:

Glad to see DTW-SNA back up to one daily. 90+ percent load factors. Hoping to see SJC next.

SJC is starting on November 15.

Old news lol. It’s not daily though.

It is actually daily until the end of the year. Jan-Mar is 5x weekly (only weekdays) and then it goes back daily in April.

PlanesNTrains wrote:

Interesting. In the JetBlue network thread, I was told otherwise. You learn something new.....

They probably do more connection at BOS than anywhere else. A lot of it is with international carriers. 30% of TP traffic at BOS is connection from B6. The terminal C &E connector really makes a huge difference.

JFK is more O&D station.

tphuang wrote:

PlanesNTrains wrote:

Interesting. In the JetBlue network thread, I was told otherwise. You learn something new.....

They probably do more connection at BOS than anywhere else. A lot of it is with international carriers. 30% of TP traffic at BOS is connection from B6. The terminal C &E connector really makes a huge difference.

JFK is more O&D station.

Does anyone have any actual data on this? I would have though FLL would be B6's biggest connecting station. How does connecting traffic on B6 compare to other airlines hubs (I am willing to be it is a lot more WN-like than DL-like)?

PlanesNTrains wrote:

tphuang wrote:

PlanesNTrains wrote:

Well, they can keep cutting until there's nothing left outside of SEA or they can roll up their sleeves and fight. BURSJC is a terrible idea too but they fly it. SANSMF is a terrible idea too but they fly it. Maybe they'll cut and run. Maybe they'll fight. Who knows?

SANSMF/SANSJC are fine. They are loosing money, but they can probably handle it. The day one of those 2 get canceled will be the day that WN has officially defeated AS. I see BUR-SJC as a barometer. You know they are going to loose a lot of money running it. So if they are running it, that means they still very committed to this intra-west coast battle.

Well I guess that was my point. If they are "committed to this intra-west coast battle", then adding BURSMF - terrible as it may be - might still be part of their strategy. I'm not predicting it or wishing it, just not sure if they can avoid some of these battles if they want to play ball.

Even if they are committed to the west coast battle, I don't see the point of something like BUR-SMF. Why launch stuff that is guaranteed to lose money? I don't think anyone questions WN's commitment to the west coast battle, but you don't see them launching crazy stuff out of SEA or PDX. Play to your strengths and/or strategically important routes. I don't think BUR-SMF is either one. JMO.

Boston92 wrote:

AA going double daily on SBA/DFW with CR9 instead of 1x with mainline, it looks like (at least in the middle of next summer).

I think that is a huge win for SBA. Allows for alot more time options and connections at DFW. Easier to be a loyal SBA flyer if you have options and not make the long trip to LAX by necessity.[/quote]

Definitely a much better timing as the current flight doesn't connect to everywhere and already is connecting to the last connections of the day, which doesn't work well if there's a delay.

If only they'd put E175's on the route and other long ones like MRY. The CR9's get weight restricted quite often and is not that comfortable for 3+ hours.

N292UX wrote:

Jeez, DL lasted on JFK-SNA about as long as AA lasted on JFK-DEN.

Didn't it JUST start too? Like this month? Must be too much of a pain to ferry the 73G up from ATL to JFK for the flight? Probably messes with their rotations in ATL.