PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9527
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

Re: OAG Changes 10/21/2018: AS;DL Ends JFK-SNA;UA

Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:00 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
tphuang wrote:

SANSMF/SANSJC are fine. They are loosing money, but they can probably handle it. The day one of those 2 get canceled will be the day that WN has officially defeated AS. I see BUR-SJC as a barometer. You know they are going to loose a lot of money running it. So if they are running it, that means they still very committed to this intra-west coast battle.


Well I guess that was my point. If they are "committed to this intra-west coast battle", then adding BURSMF - terrible as it may be - might still be part of their strategy. I'm not predicting it or wishing it, just not sure if they can avoid some of these battles if they want to play ball.
Even if they are committed to the west coast battle, I don't see the point of something like BUR-SMF. Why launch stuff that is guaranteed to lose money? I don't think anyone questions WN's commitment to the west coast battle, but you don't see them launching crazy stuff out of SEA or PDX. Play to your strengths and/or strategically important routes. I don't think BUR-SMF is either one. JMO.


Honestly, I doubt there’s going to be much patience from the bod if the don’t get some of these routes turned around or otherwise add many losers. It’s one thing to go into the somewhat unknown (I.e. SFOIND) and another to fly into the hornets nest on a route like BURSMF. You can do it when everything else is humming but that’s not where they’re at right now.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
JFLANY
Posts: 17
Joined: Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:08 am

Re: OAG Changes 10/21/2018: AS;DL Ends JFK-SNA;UA

Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:47 pm

tys777 wrote:
10x on CHA-ATL is alot of frequency, especially since this route has seen a ton of up gauging in recent years. I remember when it was all CRJ's, now they have MD88's, CR9's and CRJ's. Nice growth in a smaller market. Not sure how much more capacity CHA as an airport can absorb, they are busting at the seems during various points of the day (Especially the morning push).


I remember when it was all mainline and DL had a CTO! CHA is on fire right now. AA is adding a 3rd DFW flight and will use E75s on all three next year—I’ve taken this as a connection many times and am always surprised at the amount of O&D on these flights. Hopefully, DLs flight to LGA sticks and they will consider an evening departure/morning arrival to target NYC point of sale. City is talking about a terminal expansion, but DL still has room to convert CRJs to mainline and maybe even upgrade AM rush to 757s if needed, though I’m not positive current gate space can accommodate that size aircraft.
 
JFLANY
Posts: 17
Joined: Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:08 am

Re: OAG Changes 10/21/2018: AS;DL Ends JFK-SNA;UA

Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:06 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
N292UX wrote:
Jeez, DL lasted on JFK-SNA about as long as AA lasted on JFK-DEN.


Or as long as AA lasted on JFK-SNA. They operated this route with 757s in the mid-2000s. It didn't work.


TWA also did it. SNA-JFK has been done at least three times that I know of.


AA did it solely to punish B6 upon its entry into LGB (AA also added JFK-LGB).

HP also flew it, and DL has tried before, I think.

UA may have a a strong premium following at SNA, but there are many FFs willing to drive to LAX for the premium transcons on AA and DL to JFK.
 
nine4nine
Posts: 483
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:44 pm

Re: OAG Changes 10/21/2018: AS;DL Ends JFK-SNA;UA

Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:19 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:

Well I guess that was my point. If they are "committed to this intra-west coast battle", then adding BURSMF - terrible as it may be - might still be part of their strategy. I'm not predicting it or wishing it, just not sure if they can avoid some of these battles if they want to play ball.
Even if they are committed to the west coast battle, I don't see the point of something like BUR-SMF. Why launch stuff that is guaranteed to lose money? I don't think anyone questions WN's commitment to the west coast battle, but you don't see them launching crazy stuff out of SEA or PDX. Play to your strengths and/or strategically important routes. I don't think BUR-SMF is either one. JMO.


Honestly, I doubt there’s going to be much patience from the bod if the don’t get some of these routes turned around or otherwise add many losers. It’s one thing to go into the somewhat unknown (I.e. SFOIND) and another to fly into the hornets nest on a route like BURSMF. You can do it when everything else is humming but that’s not where they’re at right now.



AS doesn’t really do any advertising in LA for any of the intra-California flights. I don’t know how many people would even know about some of these flights. When booking a flight from so-cal to nor-cal most people automatically defer to WN because of frequency of flights and TV spots advertising that frequency as well as sales fares. Going up against the 800LB gorilla in WN, they would have to do a lot of marketing and increase frequencies to even chip they’re way into some of those competing markets and making them sustainable and profitable.
717 727 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739 742 748 752 753 762 763 772 773 DC9 MD80/88/90 DC10 319 320 321 332 333 CS100 CRJ200 Q400 E175 E190 ERJ145 EMB120
 
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enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 9493
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: OAG Changes 10/21/2018: AS;DL Ends JFK-SNA;UA

Mon Oct 22, 2018 5:07 pm

OAG fixed their errors. Here is the new version. AM picked up some big changes.

FAQ

AS OF JULY 2018 THERE ARE CHANGES TO THE FORMAT OF THIS REPORT...SEE BELOW

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...prior year departures are now shown in brackets e.g. [0].

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5[4] JAN 4>5[4]
XXX Departure IATA code, YYY Arrival IATA code, Month, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of last week, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of this week, in brackets is the number of Average Departures/Day over the month that were scheduled one year earlier. So, it means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. It also means that there were 4 roundtrips the prior year in each month. No other months were changed. I average two directions.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
NEW CHANGE-Sometimes airlines do not load their schedules for the entire 330 day standard sales window. Southwest and many LCCs load their schedules for as little as 5 months into the future. When these flight are extended into a new sales month, it becomes a "schedule change". Previously, I have manually deleted these in many cases and replaced them with a Year-Over-Year compare. Effective immediately, this will now change. When a flight is loaded from 0 departures X departures, where X was the same the prior year, the record will not be shown. For example, if Delta loaded ATL-EGE MAR 0>1(1), it would not be shown because this additional flight does not represent a real year-over-year addition. Similarly, if B6 extended their schedule a record like this ATL-BOS JUL 0>4(4) would not be shown. It will be shown if the flight frequency changed from the prior year. So B6 ATL-BOS JUL 0>3(4) would be shown. If a partial month was loaded in a core schedule that became a full schedule month, those changes may be shown under this logic. For example, WN BNA-SEA 0.3>2(2). Because only a fraction of the month was previously loaded for sale, these changes will not be filtered out. I may, however, manually remove them to declutter.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month. The following criteria are used to show a change: 1) The change must be at least 6 roundtrips per month with no exceptions, 2) changes of at least 6/week are always shown, 3) routes that are added or dropped are shown subject to the change minimum, and 4) in all other cases routes must change by 20% to be shown. For example, if a route changed from 21/week to 18/week it would not be shown because the change is -14.3%. This is done to filter minor changes that occur in large numbers.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. If the route has more than 2 daily flights, departures are rounded, but in cases of less than 2 departures per day a fraction is shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
Seats are not shown. That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard or overlapping schedule periods that see the same flight number in two places at once. These cause flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

4B AIA-CDR NOV 3>0.9[1.8] DEC 2>0.8[1.8] JAN 0.4>0.1[1.7]
4B AIA-DEN NOV 3>1.7[1.8] DEC 3>1.7[1.8] JAN 0.5>0.3[1.7]
4B CDR-DEN NOV 3>1.7[1.9] DEC 3>1.7[1.8] JAN 0.5>0.3[1.7]

4M EZE-MIA MAR 1.6>1.2[1.6] APR 1.6>1.1[1.6]

4O GDL-SFO DEC 0.4>1.2[0]

7H ANC-BET NOV 3>1.9[2]

7Q HPN-SRQ JAN 0.2>0[0.3] FEB 0.3>0[0.3] MAR 0.3>0[0.3] APR 0.3>0[0.3] MAY 0.3>0[0]
7Q IFP-PHX NOV 0.3>0[0] DEC 0.3>0[0]
7Q PHX-RST NOV 0.3>0[0] DEC 0.3>0[0]
7Q RST-UST NOV 0.3>0[0] DEC 0.3>0[0]

9X AOO-BWI MAR 0>1.0[2] APR 0>1.0[2]
9X AOO-PIT MAR 0>3[1.7] APR 0>3[1.7]
9X AVP-PIT MAR 0>1.7[0] APR 0>1.7[0]
9X BFD-PIT MAR 0>4[3] APR 0>4[3]
9X BNA-MEM MAR 0>0.8[1.1] APR 0>0.9[1.0]
9X BWI-HGR MAR 0>3[2] APR 0>3[2]
9X BWI-MGW MAR 0>2[3] APR 0>2[3]
9X EYW-PBI NOV 0>1.1[0] DEC 0>1.5[0] JAN 0>1.4[0] FEB 0>1.4[0] MAR 0>1.5[0] APR 0>1.4[0]
9X FKL-PIT MAR 0.3>3[3] APR 0.4>3[3]
9X LNS-PIT MAR 0.3>2[2] APR 0.4>2[2]
9X PBI-TPA NOV 0>1.9[0] DEC 0>2[0] JAN 0>2[0] FEB 0>2[0] MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>2[0]

AA ANU-JFK JUL 0.7>0.9[0.9]
AA AUA-PHL APR 0.7>1.0[0.7] JUN 0.7>0.9[0.7] JUL 0.7>1.0[0.7]
AA BON-MIA APR 0.2>0.6[0] MAY 0.1>0.6[0] JUN 0.2>0.6[0.1] JUL 0.1>0.6[0.1]
AA CHA-DFW APR 2>3[1.9] MAY 2>3[1.9] JUN 2>3[3] JUL 2>3[3]
AA CLT-FPO FEB 0.5>0.1[0.6] MAR 0.9>0.2[0.9] APR 0.9>0.1[0.9] MAY 0.7>0.1[0.7] JUN 0.7>0.2[0.3] JUL 0.7>0.1[0.1]
AA CLT-NAS MAY 3>2[2]
AA CLT-PUJ FEB 2>1.8[2] MAR 3>2[3]
AA DFW-GGG FEB 1.9>2[1.8] MAR 2>3[1.8] APR 2>3[1.9] MAY 2>3[2.0] JUN 2>3[2] JUL 2>3[3]
AA DFW-HSV APR 4>5[4] MAY 4>5[4] JUN 4>5[4] JUL 4>5[5]
AA DFW-PVR MAY 2>3[2.0]
AA DFW-RNO MAY 2>3[2] JUN 2>3[3] JUL 2>3[3]
AA DFW-SBA JUN 1.0>1.7[1.0] JUL 1.0>1.5[1.0]
AA DFW-TYS JUN 4>5[4] JUL 4>5[4]
AA ELH-MIA FEB 1.1>1.5[1.1] MAR 1.2>2[1.2]
AA JFK-PUJ FEB 0.5>0[0.5] MAR 1.0>0[1.0] APR 1.0>0[1.0]
AA ORD-SJU APR 0.6>0.4[0.6]
AA PHL-YQB JUN 0>1.7[1.6] JUL 0>2[1.9]

AJ ELH-FXE JAN 0>0.3[0] FEB 0>0.3[0] MAR 0>0.3[0] APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>0.3[0] JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]
AJ FXE-GHB JAN 0>0.5[0.6] MAY 0>0.6[0.5] JUL 0>0.6[0.5]

*AM BOS-MEX JAN 0.9>0.2[0.8] FEB 0.9>0[0.7] MAR 0.8>0[0.9] APR 0.9>0[0.9] MAY 0.9>0[0.8] JUN 0.9>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
AM GDL-LAX JAN 1.9>1.3[2] FEB 1.9>1.0[2] MAR 1.9>1.0[2.0] APR 2>1.0[2] MAY 2>1.0[2] JUN 2>1.0[2] JUL 2>1.0[2]
*AM GDL-SJC JAN 0.9>0.2[0.9] FEB 0.9>0[0.8] MAR 0.9>0[0.9] APR 0.9>0[0.9] MAY 0.8>0[0.8] JUN 0.9>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
*AM IAD-MEX JAN 0.9>0.2[0.8] FEB 0.9>0[0.7] MAR 0.9>0[0.9] APR 0.9>0[1.0] MAY 0.8>0[1.0] JUN 0.9>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
AM LAS-MEX FEB 1.7>1.3[1.8] MAR 1.7>1.3[2] APR 1.7>1.0[1.8] MAY 1.7>1.0[1.7] JUN 1.9>1.0[2] JUL 2>1.0[2]
*AM LAS-MTY JAN 0.5>0.2[0.6] FEB 0.3>0[0.6] MAR 0.3>0[0.5] APR 0.3>0[0.5] MAY 0.3>0[0.5] JUN 0.3>0[0.9] JUL 0.3>0[1.0]
AM MCO-MEX FEB 1.7>1.3[1.9] MAR 1.7>1.3[2] APR 1.7>1.0[2.0] MAY 1.7>1.0[1.8] JUN 1.9>1.0[2] JUL 2>1.0[2]
*AM MEX-PDX JAN 0.9>0.2[1.0] FEB 0.9>0[1.0] MAR 0.9>0[0.9] APR 0.8>0[1.0] MAY 0.9>0[1.0] JUN 0.9>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
*AM MEX-SJC JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0]

AS LAS-SEA JAN 8>9[7]
AS PSP-SFO MAR 3>4[0] APR 3>5[0.7] MAY 3>5[3] JUN 1.9>5[1.8] JUL 1.7>5[1.9]
AS SAN-SJC MAR 4>2[3]
AS SAN-SMF APR 3>4[3] MAY 3>4[3] JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3]
AS SEA-SFO JAN 14>15[10]
AS SEA-SLC JUN 5>4[5] JUL 5>4[5]

AT CMN-MIA APR 0>0.4[0] MAY 0>0.5[0] JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0]

B6 BOS-BUF APR 3>4[4]
B6 BOS-STI FEB 1.4>1.0[0.8]
B6 DCA-RSW MAY 2>1.0[1.0] JUN 0.8>0.4[1.0]
B6 DCA-TPA JUN 0>0.4[1.0]
B6 HPN-PBI MAY 4>5[4] JUN 1.2>1.6[3]
B6 JFK-PBI MAY 4>3[4] JUN 1.6>1.2[3]
B6 JFK-ROC MAY 2>3[3] JUN 0.8>1.2[3]
B6 MCO-SJU MAY 2>3[3] JUN 0.9>1.1[3]

BA CHS-LHR APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>0.3[0] JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]

CM LAS-PTY APR 1.0>0.7[1.0] MAY 1.0>0.7[1.0]
CM PTY-TPA APR 1.0>0.7[0.6] MAY 1.0>0.7[0.5]

DI JFK-LGW APR 1.9>3[1.9] MAY 1.8>3[1.8] JUN 1.9>3[1.9] JUL 1.8>3[1.8]

DL ACK-LGA JUN 0>0.5[0.9] JUL 0>0.6[1.1]
DL ATL-BTR APR 6>7[7] MAY 6>7[7]
DL ATL-CAE MAY 7>8[7]
DL ATL-CHA APR 9>10[9] MAY 9>10[9]
DL ATL-CLT JUL 10>9[9]
DL ATL-DEN JUN 9>8[8]
DL ATL-EVV JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3]
DL ATL-FLL JUL 15>14[14]
DL ATL-MCO JUL 17>16[16]
DL ATL-ONT APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>1.6[0] JUL 0>1.9[0]
DL ATL-PBI JUL 12>10[11]
DL ATL-SAV JUL 10>11[10]
DL ATL-SBN APR 4>5[4] MAY 4>5[4]
DL ATL-SFO APR 8>6[7] MAY 8>6[7]
DL ATL-TVC JUL 0>0.4[0.5]
DL ATL-TYS APR 8>9[8] MAY 8>9[8]
DL BGR-LGA MAR 2>3[3]
DL BIL-SLC JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3]
DL BNA-MSP MAY 4>5[4] JUN 4>5[5] JUL 4>5[5]
DL BOS-CUN APR 0.2>0.7[0.3]
DL BOS-EDI MAY 0>0.3[0] JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0]
DL BOS-LGA JUL 14>12[11]
DL BTV-DTW JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3]
DL CVG-IAH APR 1.6>0.9[0.9]
DL CVG-PHX APR 1.0>0.4[0]
DL DCA-LGA JUL 10>9[9]
DL DTW-GRB APR 3>4[3] MAY 3>4[3]
DL DTW-GRR APR 6>7[6] MAY 6>7[6]
DL DTW-JFK MAY 4>5[4]
DL DTW-MSN APR 6>5[6]
DL DTW-PDX APR 1.5>1.1[1.0]
DL DTW-SNA APR 0.7>1.0[0.8] MAY 0.7>1.0[0.8]
DL FCA-MSP JUN 1.2>1.4[1.1]
DL GRU-MCO MAR 1.0>0.3[1.0] APR 1.0>0[1.0] MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
DL HLN-SLC JUL 4>3[3]
DL JFK-SNA JAN 0.7>0.1[0] FEB 0.7>0[0] MAR 0.7>0[0] APR 0.7>0[0] MAY 0.7>0[0] JUN 0.7>0[0] JUL 0.7>0[0]
DL LAS-SNA APR 3>4[4] MAY 3>4[4]
DL LGA-MVY JUN 0>0.4[0.8] JUL 0>0.6[1.0]
DL LGA-ORD JUL 13>14[11]
DL LGA-PWM MAR 3>2[4]
DL LGA-TYS FEB 1.3>1.6[0.8]
DL MCO-SEA JUL 1.0>1.5[1.7]
DL MSP-SMF APR 1.8>1.2[0.9]
DL MSP-TPA APR 2>3[3]
DL SAN-SEA JUL 4>5[5]
DL SEA-YEG APR 0.7>1.0[1.7] MAY 0.7>1.0[1.7]
DL SEA-YVR MAY 5>6[5]

DY AMS-JFK APR 0>1.0[0] MAY 0>1.0[0.5] JUN 0>1.0[0.6] JUL 0>1.0[0.6]

G4 BNA-VPS DEC 0.3>0[0]

LA JFK-LIM APR 1.3>1.0[1.3] MAY 1.3>1.0[1.3] JUN 1.3>1.0[1.3] JUL 1.3>1.0[1.3]

LY EWR-TLV JUN 0.8>1.4[1.5] JUL 0.9>1.6[1.5]

SY HNL-PDX MAR 0.1>0.3[0]
SY MSP-PDX MAR 0.0>0.3[0]
SY MSP-TPA JAN 0.7>0.9[1.0]
SY PDX-PSP MAR 0.0>0.3[0]

Y4 ABQ-GDL APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>0.3[0] JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]
Y4 AUS-GDL NOV 0.3>0.1[0.2] DEC 0.3>0.0[0.3] JAN 0.3>0.1[0.3] FEB 0.3>0[0.3] MAR 0.3>0[0.3] APR 0.3>0[0.3] MAY 0.3>0[0.3] JUN 0.3>0[0.4] JUL 0.3>0[0.4]
Y4 BJX-SJC APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>0.3[0] JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]
Y4 BJX-SMF APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>0.3[0] JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]
Y4 CLT-GDL APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>0.3[0] JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]
Y4 DEN-GDL DEC 0.4>0.6[0.5]
Y4 DEN-MEX DEC 0.2>0.7[0.6] JAN 0.1>0.6[0.5] FEB 0.1>0.4[0.4] MAR 0.2>0.5[0.5] APR 0.1>0.4[0.4] MAY 0.1>0.4[0.1] JUN 0.2>0.4[0.1] JUL 0.1>0.4[0.7]
Y4 DFW-GDL DEC 0.4>0.7[0.6]
Y4 FAT-GDL DEC 1.0>1.4[1.4]
Y4 GDL-OAK DEC 0.8>1.1[1.0]
Y4 GDL-PDX JAN 0.5>0.8[0.6]
Y4 GDL-SFO FEB 0.3>0[0.5] MAR 0.3>0[0.6] APR 0.3>0[0.3] MAY 0.3>0[0.3] JUN 0.3>0[0.3] JUL 0.3>0[0.3]
Y4 GDL-SJC APR 0.7>1.0[0.7] MAY 0.7>1.0[0.7] JUN 0.7>1.0[0.7] JUL 0.7>1.0[0.8]
Y4 GDL-SMF DEC 0.9>1.1[1.2]
Y4 JFK-MEX NOV 1.0>0.8[1.9] DEC 1.0>0.8[1.7] JAN 1.0>0.3[1.9] FEB 1.0>0[1.3] MAR 1.0>0[1.2] APR 1.0>0[1.3] MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0]
Y4 LAS-MEX APR 0.8>0[0.9] MAY 0.9>0[0.8] JUN 0.9>0[0.9] JUL 0.8>0[0.8]
Y4 LAX-MEX APR 1.0>0.2[2] MAY 1.0>0.2[1.0] JUN 1.0>0.1[1.0] JUL 1.0>0.2[1.0]
Y4 MCO-MEX APR 0>0.8[0.3] MAY 0>0.9[0.1] JUN 0>0.9[0] JUL 0>0.8[0.5]
Y4 MEX-MIA APR 0.3>1.0[0.3] MAY 0.3>1.0[0.3] JUN 0.3>1.0[0.3] JUL 0.3>1.0[0.2]
Y4 MEX-SFO FEB 0.3>0[0.5] MAR 0.3>0[0.4] APR 0.3>0[0.5] MAY 0.3>0[0.3] JUN 0.3>0[0.3] JUL 0.3>0[0.4]
Y4 MLM-OAK DEC 0.5>0.7[0.6]
Y4 MLM-SJC JAN 0.3>0.5[0.3] FEB 0.3>0.6[0.3] MAR 0.3>0.6[0.3] APR 0.3>0.6[0.3] MAY 0.3>0.5[0.3] JUN 0.3>0.6[0.3] JUL 0.3>0.5[0.3]
 
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madpropsyo
Posts: 63
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Re: OAG Changes 10/21/2018: AS;DL Ends JFK-SNA;UA

Mon Oct 22, 2018 6:04 pm

tphuang wrote:
SANSMF 480 WN 256973 129.52 129.25 99.83% 154.3 86.91% 112.33 0.2340
BURSJC 296 OO 16045 92.68 92.68 100.00% 76.0 62.65% 58.06 0.1961
BURSJC 296 QX 8069 99.55 99.55 100.00% 76.0 68.94% 68.63 0.2319
BURSJC 296 WN 145927 124.99 124.78 99.88% 143.1 70.52% 87.99 0.2973


Pardon my ignorance here. I’ve seen numbers like these in many threads on this site but I’m not 100% sure what I am looking at. Do these number take ancillary revenue into account, or is it just ticket fares?
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 10/21/2018: AS;DL Ends JFK-SNA;UA

Mon Oct 22, 2018 6:17 pm

madpropsyo wrote:
tphuang wrote:
SANSMF 480 WN 256973 129.52 129.25 99.83% 154.3 86.91% 112.33 0.2340
BURSJC 296 OO 16045 92.68 92.68 100.00% 76.0 62.65% 58.06 0.1961
BURSJC 296 QX 8069 99.55 99.55 100.00% 76.0 68.94% 68.63 0.2319
BURSJC 296 WN 145927 124.99 124.78 99.88% 143.1 70.52% 87.99 0.2973


Pardon my ignorance here. I’ve seen numbers like these in many threads on this site but I’m not 100% sure what I am looking at. Do these number take ancillary revenue into account, or is it just ticket fares?

No that info is not publicly available. All this is ticket fares and load factor. I also filter out the fares on connection itinerary.
 
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madpropsyo
Posts: 63
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Re: OAG Changes 10/21/2018: AS;DL Ends JFK-SNA;UA

Mon Oct 22, 2018 6:56 pm

tphuang wrote:
No that info is not publicly available. All this is ticket fares and load factor. I also filter out the fares on connection itinerary.


Interesting, thanks. That could create some interesting comps with WN I would think since they don't rely on ancillary revenue as much as the rest of the industry. I wonder how they compare in some of the markets where they compete with ULCCs.
 
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SANFan
Posts: 5028
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Re: OAG Changes 10/21/2018: AS;DL Ends JFK-SNA;UA

Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:22 pm

AS SAN-SJC MAR 4>2[3]


I hope I don't start another argument Enilria but this particular misfile did get corrected, at least on AS's own flight schedule and booking engine. This line should not appear in your report at all as there is no change for March -- 4 flights previously filed, with 4 flights still operating for next March.

Yesterday, AS showed no service al all between SAN and SJC between 3/10/19 and 3/22/19; I assume that's why your data collection showed a decrease from 4 flts to 2 -- the correct number of 4 daily flights, averaged with almost 2 weeks of 0 flights averaged out at 2 for the month. AS caught the mistake and now shows the 4 daily flights in the market during those 'previously missing' dates.

Perhaps they didn't correct the misfile with the OAG yet but I can assure that SAN-SJC is still 4 flights next March.

The only reason I bring this up is since the original filing was very messed up, your revised report (and thank you for that btw) might have missed something. Otherwise, as I mentioned above, it didn't get corrected yet by AS and the OAG still shows no flights between 3/10 and 3/22!

bb
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9527
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

Re: OAG Changes 10/21/2018: AS;DL Ends JFK-SNA;UA

Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:59 pm

SANFan wrote:
AS SAN-SJC MAR 4>2[3]


I hope I don't start another argument Enilria but this particular misfile did get corrected, at least on AS's own flight schedule and booking engine. This line should not appear in your report at all as there is no change for March -- 4 flights previously filed, with 4 flights still operating for next March.

Yesterday, AS showed no service al all between SAN and SJC between 3/10/19 and 3/22/19; I assume that's why your data collection showed a decrease from 4 flts to 2 -- the correct number of 4 daily flights, averaged with almost 2 weeks of 0 flights averaged out at 2 for the month. AS caught the mistake and now shows the 4 daily flights in the market during those 'previously missing' dates.

Perhaps they didn't correct the misfile with the OAG yet but I can assure that SAN-SJC is still 4 flights next March.

The only reason I bring this up is since the original filing was very messed up, your revised report (and thank you for that btw) might have missed something. Otherwise, as I mentioned above, it didn't get corrected yet by AS and the OAG still shows no flights between 3/10 and 3/22!

bb


I'm sorta surprised that you are saying that as we've been down this road before on the OAG threads. He is just passing on what is reported to the OAG. He can't adjust for inaccuracies like misfiles etc because that'd be virtually impossible for him to manage. More than likely a correction will filter out in another thread OR they really are trading down from 3 to 2 on SANSJC to feed SANSMF. Either way, it's what the carrier files.

Hopefully it clears up next week.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
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knope2001
Posts: 2919
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Re: OAG Changes 10/21/2018: AS;DL Ends JFK-SNA;UA

Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:44 pm

Thanks for re-doing this -- I'm guessing this is a pain in the butt sometimes but (as always) we really appreciate you sharing this stuff.

enilria wrote:
9X EYW-PBI NOV 0>1.1[0] DEC 0>1.5[0] JAN 0>1.4[0] FEB 0>1.4[0] MAR 0>1.5[0] APR 0>1.4[0]
9X PBI-TPA NOV 0>1.9[0] DEC 0>2[0] JAN 0>2[0] FEB 0>2[0] MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>2[0]


Interesting to see Southern setting up shop in a new market for non-EAS flying. Since acquiring Sun Air (and their certification) almost all their flying has been EAS subsidized. Several of their markets (especially PA/MD) are in perpetual danger of being axed for not meeting EAS standards, so if they want better-term prospects they probably need to branch out. Their route map indicates plans to re-enter Memphis-Atlanta again, probably PDK (which is temporarily closed for construction). The last time they tried MEM-PDK they were limited to four weekly round trips, but now they will have rights for more frequent service. It will be interesting to see if they make a go of it this time in Atlanta. And if it is successful, what other Atlanta markets they might try, and what PDK NIMBY's do about it, if anything. Unless I'm missing something the only scheduled-ish airline service is a single FRJ to Cincinnati five days per week on Ultimate.

enilria wrote:
Y4 AUS-GDL NOV 0.3>0.1[0.2] DEC 0.3>0.0[0.3] JAN 0.3>0.1[0.3] FEB 0.3>0[0.3] MAR 0.3>0[0.3] APR 0.3>0[0.3] MAY 0.3>0[0.3] JUN 0.3>0[0.4] JUL 0.3>0[0.4]


A little surprised this one lasted as long as it did. Since inception in mid 2016 it's run 49.5% full and hasn't been trending up much in recent months. Looking at the eight most recent months available (Sept 17-April 18) six of those months had load factor in the 40's -- the only two which averaged more than half full were at 55.6% October '17 and 52.3% November '17.
 
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SANFan
Posts: 5028
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Re: OAG Changes 10/21/2018: AS;DL Ends JFK-SNA;UA

Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:45 am

PlanesNTrains wrote:
I'm sorta surprised that you are saying that as we've been down this road before on the OAG threads. He is just passing on what is reported to the OAG. He can't adjust for inaccuracies like misfiles etc because that'd be virtually impossible for him to manage. More than likely a correction will filter out in another thread OR they really are trading down from 3 to 2 on SANSJC to feed SANSMF. Either way, it's what the carrier files.

Hopefully it clears up next week.

Yet that's exactly why I mentioned it this time: according to Enilria, there WERE problems (corruption?) with the filing on Sunday which apparently were corrected earlier today. I thought he might want to know that not everything did get corrected..

I thought I'd explained my reasoning for my apparently pointless post in the post itself. I guess not, at least to your liking Dave.

bb
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9527
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

Re: OAG Changes 10/21/2018: AS;DL Ends JFK-SNA;UA

Tue Oct 23, 2018 1:51 am

SANFan wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
I'm sorta surprised that you are saying that as we've been down this road before on the OAG threads. He is just passing on what is reported to the OAG. He can't adjust for inaccuracies like misfiles etc because that'd be virtually impossible for him to manage. More than likely a correction will filter out in another thread OR they really are trading down from 3 to 2 on SANSJC to feed SANSMF. Either way, it's what the carrier files.

Hopefully it clears up next week.

Yet that's exactly why I mentioned it this time: according to Enilria, there WERE problems (corruption?) with the filing on Sunday which apparently were corrected earlier today. I thought he might want to know that not everything did get corrected..

I thought I'd explained my reasoning for my apparently pointless post in the post itself. I guess not, at least to your liking Dave.

bb


1. It wasn't a personal attack.
2. I'm aware there were issues earlier.
3. He stated there had been a fix.
4. Not everything each week is accurately reported by the carriers themselves.
5. I was only pointing out the obvious - he is sharing what he got. If you weren't implying that he shouldn't have posted that by saying it shouldn't have been posted, my bad.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
DeltaPrince
Posts: 36
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2018 10:05 pm

Re: OAG Changes 10/21/2018: AS;DL Ends JFK-SNA;UA

Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:03 am

Cointrin330 wrote:
N292UX wrote:
Jeez, DL lasted on JFK-SNA about as long as AA lasted on JFK-DEN.


Or as long as AA lasted on JFK-SNA. They operated this route with 757s in the mid-2000s. It didn't work.


Truth. I want to say it might date as far back as 2001. At the time, AA was doing JFK-LGB, and JFK-SNA. They announced JFK-ONT just before 9/11 but never operated it, IIRC.

The fares were much lower on JFK-LGB, and relatively high on JFK-SNA. AA killed JFK-LGB because, in part, JFK-LGB was stealing passengers from JFK-SNA.

Then they killed JFK-SNA.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: OAG Changes 10/21/2018: AS;DL Ends JFK-SNA;UA

Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:21 am

JFLANY wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:

Or as long as AA lasted on JFK-SNA. They operated this route with 757s in the mid-2000s. It didn't work.


TWA also did it. SNA-JFK has been done at least three times that I know of.


AA did it solely to punish B6 upon its entry into LGB (AA also added JFK-LGB).

HP also flew it, and DL has tried before, I think.

UA may have a a strong premium following at SNA, but there are many FFs willing to drive to LAX for the premium transcons on AA and DL to JFK.


I don't recall America West operating JFK-SNA but it's possible they did a long time ago. Little did AA know that B6 would come to bite huge chunks off its JFK network when it started flying in 2000, ultimately eating away at AA's once dominant Caribbean and Puerto Rico markets and pushing American to a distant #3 at JFK,
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9527
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

Re: OAG Changes 10/21/2018: AS;DL Ends JFK-SNA;UA

Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:54 am

Cointrin330 wrote:
JFLANY wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:

TWA also did it. SNA-JFK has been done at least three times that I know of.


AA did it solely to punish B6 upon its entry into LGB (AA also added JFK-LGB).

HP also flew it, and DL has tried before, I think.

UA may have a a strong premium following at SNA, but there are many FFs willing to drive to LAX for the premium transcons on AA and DL to JFK.


I don't recall America West operating JFK-SNA but it's possible they did a long time ago. Little did AA know that B6 would come to bite huge chunks off its JFK network when it started flying in 2000, ultimately eating away at AA's once dominant Caribbean and Puerto Rico markets and pushing American to a distant #3 at JFK,


American has always been great at taking something of value and killing it. Bad timing. Bad leadership. You pick. :-)
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
EvanWSFO
Posts: 1125
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:22 pm

Re: OAG Changes 10/21/2018: AS;DL Ends JFK-SNA;UA

Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:25 am

Cointrin330 wrote:
JFLANY wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:

TWA also did it. SNA-JFK has been done at least three times that I know of.


AA did it solely to punish B6 upon its entry into LGB (AA also added JFK-LGB).

HP also flew it, and DL has tried before, I think.

UA may have a a strong premium following at SNA, but there are many FFs willing to drive to LAX for the premium transcons on AA and DL to JFK.


I don't recall America West operating JFK-SNA but it's possible they did a long time ago. Little did AA know that B6 would come to bite huge chunks off its JFK network when it started flying in 2000, ultimately eating away at AA's once dominant Caribbean and Puerto Rico markets and pushing American to a distant #3 at JFK,

.
Pretty sure HP never flew SNA-JFK. I believe they had a brief flirtation with LAX/SFO-JFK, but it didn't last long.
I have been on this site 15 years. A unrecoverable email account led me to starting over. Those of you who call me a rookie, you may stop ok?
 
JFLANY
Posts: 17
Joined: Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:08 am

Re: OAG Changes 10/21/2018: AS;DL Ends JFK-SNA;UA

Tue Oct 23, 2018 4:21 am

EvanWSFO wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
JFLANY wrote:

AA did it solely to punish B6 upon its entry into LGB (AA also added JFK-LGB).

HP also flew it, and DL has tried before, I think.

UA may have a a strong premium following at SNA, but there are many FFs willing to drive to LAX for the premium transcons on AA and DL to JFK.


I don't recall America West operating JFK-SNA but it's possible they did a long time ago. Little did AA know that B6 would come to bite huge chunks off its JFK network when it started flying in 2000, ultimately eating away at AA's once dominant Caribbean and Puerto Rico markets and pushing American to a distant #3 at JFK,

.
Pretty sure HP never flew SNA-JFK. I believe they had a brief flirtation with LAX/SFO-JFK, but it didn't last long.


Not sure how long it lasted, but it happened.

http://www.departedflights.com/HPjfksna.html
http://www.departedflights.com/SNA91p2.html

I do seem to recall there was indeed a flirtation with LAX/SFO-JFK later on in HP's history as well.
 
JFLANY
Posts: 17
Joined: Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:08 am

Re: OAG Changes 10/21/2018: AS;DL Ends JFK-SNA;UA

Tue Oct 23, 2018 4:31 am

DeltaPrince wrote:
The fares were much lower on JFK-LGB, and relatively high on JFK-SNA. AA killed JFK-LGB because, in part, JFK-LGB was stealing passengers from JFK-SNA.


AA dumped capacity at low fares on both routes, and they had zero strategic interest in operating either of them. Both routes were cancelled once it was clear B6 would not retrench from the transcon market. I don't recall, but it's possible JFK-SNA died more slowly due to some loyal AA flyers in SNA using the route. More importantly, it was JFK-LAX yields that suffered then and have continued to suffer as B6 has grown, DL expanded and VX entered the market.
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 1129
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: OAG Changes 10/21/2018: AS;DL Ends JFK-SNA;UA

Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:17 am

JFLANY wrote:
DeltaPrince wrote:
The fares were much lower on JFK-LGB, and relatively high on JFK-SNA. AA killed JFK-LGB because, in part, JFK-LGB was stealing passengers from JFK-SNA.


AA dumped capacity at low fares on both routes, and they had zero strategic interest in operating either of them. Both routes were cancelled once it was clear B6 would not retrench from the transcon market. I don't recall, but it's possible JFK-SNA died more slowly due to some loyal AA flyers in SNA using the route. More importantly, it was JFK-LAX yields that suffered then and have continued to suffer as B6 has grown, DL expanded and VX entered the market.


American's route network from JFK over the years has been marked with capacity dumping in generally failed efforts to drive out competition. American did this with JFK-STN when Eos started flying in the mid-2000s.
 
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enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 9493
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Re: OAG Changes 10/21/2018: AS;DL Ends JFK-SNA;UA

Sat Oct 27, 2018 7:44 pm

SANFan wrote:
AS SAN-SJC MAR 4>2[3]


I hope I don't start another argument Enilria but this particular misfile did get corrected, at least on AS's own flight schedule and booking engine. This line should not appear in your report at all as there is no change for March -- 4 flights previously filed, with 4 flights still operating for next March.

Yesterday, AS showed no service al all between SAN and SJC between 3/10/19 and 3/22/19; I assume that's why your data collection showed a decrease from 4 flts to 2 -- the correct number of 4 daily flights, averaged with almost 2 weeks of 0 flights averaged out at 2 for the month. AS caught the mistake and now shows the 4 daily flights in the market during those 'previously missing' dates.

Perhaps they didn't correct the misfile with the OAG yet but I can assure that SAN-SJC is still 4 flights next March.

The only reason I bring this up is since the original filing was very messed up, your revised report (and thank you for that btw) might have missed something. Otherwise, as I mentioned above, it didn't get corrected yet by AS and the OAG still shows no flights between 3/10 and 3/22!

bb

PlanesNTrains wrote:
SANFan wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
I'm sorta surprised that you are saying that as we've been down this road before on the OAG threads. He is just passing on what is reported to the OAG. He can't adjust for inaccuracies like misfiles etc because that'd be virtually impossible for him to manage. More than likely a correction will filter out in another thread OR they really are trading down from 3 to 2 on SANSJC to feed SANSMF. Either way, it's what the carrier files.

Hopefully it clears up next week.

Yet that's exactly why I mentioned it this time: according to Enilria, there WERE problems (corruption?) with the filing on Sunday which apparently were corrected earlier today. I thought he might want to know that not everything did get corrected..

I thought I'd explained my reasoning for my apparently pointless post in the post itself. I guess not, at least to your liking Dave.

bb


1. It wasn't a personal attack.
2. I'm aware there were issues earlier.
3. He stated there had been a fix.
4. Not everything each week is accurately reported by the carriers themselves.
5. I was only pointing out the obvious - he is sharing what he got. If you weren't implying that he shouldn't have posted that by saying it shouldn't have been posted, my bad.

Sorry I just got around to seeing this.

I addressed this in another post, but the issue this week is that OAG adds a field that has the country of origin and the country of destination. It's not in the airlines's sim filing. It's something they add on to make using the data easier to use, i.e. metadata. Something went wrong and the country codes were wrong. I obviously filter out most of the countries of the world from this report. So there were many flights that had incorrect countries and were dropped. When I did my compare they appeared to be deleted week over week because, for example, and OMA-IAH was now a flight in Tanzania. Or the reverse that added flights appeared to move into the United States when it's really a flight in Brazil. And this impacted a subset of all flights so VERY messy. This happens a few times per year and often they fix it fairly quickly, but sometimes not. I gave up on it getting fixed on Sunday and just cobbled together what looked to have accurate metadata.

So none of that affected the data the airline filed, it was the metadata that was corrupt, but I need the metadata to do this report. Airlines misfiling frequencies is a different matter, and it happens. On that front, we rarely consider that this capture occurs at a point in time and it could catch an airline in the middle of a schedule update where some old stuff and some new stuff are both simultaneously loaded.
 
Sancho99504
Posts: 634
Joined: Sun Dec 11, 2005 2:44 pm

Re: OAG Changes 10/21/2018: AS;DL Ends JFK-SNA;UA

Sat Oct 27, 2018 8:39 pm

JFLANY wrote:
EvanWSFO wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:

I don't recall America West operating JFK-SNA but it's possible they did a long time ago. Little did AA know that B6 would come to bite huge chunks off its JFK network when it started flying in 2000, ultimately eating away at AA's once dominant Caribbean and Puerto Rico markets and pushing American to a distant #3 at JFK,

.
Pretty sure HP never flew SNA-JFK. I believe they had a brief flirtation with LAX/SFO-JFK, but it didn't last long.


Not sure how long it lasted, but it happened.

http://www.departedflights.com/HPjfksna.html
http://www.departedflights.com/SNA91p2.html

I do seem to recall there was indeed a flirtation with LAX/SFO-JFK later on in HP's history as well.

I believe that they tried BOS and JFK from SFO, don't recall about LAX. They were operated with 757 first, then A319 and then dropped.
kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out-USMC
 
ucdtim17
Posts: 558
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2016 6:38 pm

Re: OAG Changes 10/21/2018: AS;DL Ends JFK-SNA;UA

Sat Oct 27, 2018 8:52 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
JFLANY wrote:
DeltaPrince wrote:
The fares were much lower on JFK-LGB, and relatively high on JFK-SNA. AA killed JFK-LGB because, in part, JFK-LGB was stealing passengers from JFK-SNA.


AA dumped capacity at low fares on both routes, and they had zero strategic interest in operating either of them. Both routes were cancelled once it was clear B6 would not retrench from the transcon market. I don't recall, but it's possible JFK-SNA died more slowly due to some loyal AA flyers in SNA using the route. More importantly, it was JFK-LAX yields that suffered then and have continued to suffer as B6 has grown, DL expanded and VX entered the market.


American's route network from JFK over the years has been marked with capacity dumping in generally failed efforts to drive out competition. American did this with JFK-STN when Eos started flying in the mid-2000s.


Also JFK-OAK when B6 was getting started but that didn't last long

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