Cerecl
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:05 pm

trijetsonly wrote:
The 787-9 flies 6000nm at a ZFW of ~172t.
That's ~42 to 47t of payload, depending on cabin and catering. With 300 pax (300* 100kg) 12 to 17t cargo capability remain.

Sure, but this is obviously very different from 325 pax+27t cargo.
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:13 pm

It amazes me how A vs B these threads must become.

It is simple economics:
1. Purchase price
2. Support contract for LH Technic
3. Weighed by aircraft cost per flight
4. Weighed by anticipated revenue (per aircraft, if appropriate).

LH will make the best deal for LH. Perhaps they want in on a GE engine contract? Perhaps they are bidding down Airbus or RR?
What I know is this will be a fascinating order. Either could win. Either engine vendor could win. LH will select on merits for LH and keep negotiating until the offer is *good*.

Cerecl wrote:
trijetsonly wrote:
The 787-9 flies 6000nm at a ZFW of ~172t.
That's ~42 to 47t of payload, depending on cabin and catering. With 300 pax (300* 100kg) 12 to 17t cargo capability remain.

Sure, but this is obviously very different from 325 pax+27t cargo.

And the reason we think LH needs the higher cargo on every route is???
If cargo to that level was needed, the A343s would have been replaced earlier.


Lightsaber
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trijetsonly
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:16 pm

Cerecl wrote:
trijetsonly wrote:
The 787-9 flies 6000nm at a ZFW of ~172t.
That's ~42 to 47t of payload, depending on cabin and catering. With 300 pax (300* 100kg) 12 to 17t cargo capability remain.

Sure, but this is obviously very different from 325 pax+27t cargo.


Probably a typo and he meant 325 pax + 17t cargo (which is still a bit optimistic but better than with the 787-10)
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:22 pm

WIederling wrote:
Additionally and in contrast to some other airlines LH goes for having "rightsized" frames for their use cases.
finely grained adjusting capacity provided to fit demand. Granularity.

If that's the case, the chart in #75 shows why 787 would make sense, why they have 777-9 on order, and why NMA/797 could play a role as well.
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:34 pm

DABYT wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
I don't buy the "LH technik is an advantage line." Considering that some competitor airlines send lots of their maintenance to third world countries, paying for maintenance in Germany must be unbelievably expensive for them.

Lets face it: LH is a quasi-subsidized, too-big-to-fail, Euro megacarrier. AND they're arrogant to boot (perhaps becaus they're too big to fail and they know it).The over-riding factor behind LH fleet decisions is political, not economic. Witness the A380 AND 747-8 orders. 0 for 2 on airplanes that were too big for any sensible airline in the world, and now both face extinction. Ordering one would have been a mistake. Ordering both was the very height of folly. They went for the trifecta in stupidity with the 777X, another too big, too heavy, DOA airplane that is "selling poorly right now" and will never sell in significant numbers imho. To now seriously consider 787s or 350s is almost beyond belief.


I have 3 questions for you:

1.) What is a “quasi-subsidized, too-big-to-fail, Euro megacarrier”?
2.) You really believe that Mr. Spohr has to ask Mrs. Merkel what aircraft to buy?
3.) What intel do you have that LH’s fleet planners don’t?

I see that you have been on A.net for not too long (well, maybe you lurked for a bit longer), so you might not be aware that some of our armchair and sleeping couch CEOs, COOs & CFOs here are actually way smarter and more informed than the industry professionals that run successful airlines. ;) ;)
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Cerecl
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:35 pm

lightsaber wrote:
It amazes me how A vs B these threads must become.
And the reason we think LH needs the higher cargo on every route is???
If cargo to that level was needed, the A343s would have been replaced earlier.
Lightsaber

Where on earth did I say or even infer LH necessarily needs higher cargo capacity, let alone on EVERY route?
Lightsaber , you are one of the most respected members on this forum. However, I think on this occasion you are looking for A vs B which wasn't there. A member made a claim that was clearly unsubstantiated, questioning such claim should not be viewed as A vs B. If someone said A350-1000 can out-lift 777-8 to 6000nm, I am sure plenty of members would point that out as well. I hope you don't lump them in the A vs B camp should this occur.
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:45 pm

Revelation wrote:
WIederling wrote:
Additionally and in contrast to some other airlines LH goes for having "rightsized" frames for their use cases.
finely grained adjusting capacity provided to fit demand. Granularity.

If that's the case, the chart in #75 shows why 787 would make sense, why they have 777-9 on order, and why NMA/797 could play a role as well.


Granularity is something a carrier can afford (duplicate parts, training up and down) when you've got a big fleet. Since they can't share aircraft and crew across LH, Swiss, Austrian, Eurowings..., it's essential than LH have that big fleet not LH Group.
 
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 1:36 pm

LH never bought the 777 because they were committed to the A340 series. Many view that as a mistake on their part. And while they have committed to the A350, the 787 and A350 are not as close to the same as were the A340 and the 777. There are a number of airlines flying both. So, while I do give the A350 an edge here I do not by any means think it is a lock, assuming it is for LH itself. If it is for one of the other lines I think the 787 would have the edge.
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 1:48 pm

aviationaware wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:

But, LH lists 34 orders in its 2017 annual report at page 22. https://investor-relations.lufthansagro ... 2017-e.pdf

Personally, I don't truly understand what is going on. Boeing clearly doesn't consider them firm (I don't either because of this fact). But, LH does state it has 34 orders.


Boeing is forbidden to count those orders by accounting rules. Lufthansa as the customer on the other hand has no such restrictions, so they need not discern between outright orders, options and purchase rights in their report.


As I stated above, I’m aware it is the accounting rules probably forbidding Boeing from recognizing the order. LH, however, is also bound by accounting rules (different ones) though. They can’t record a liability on their books if it isn’t sufficient.
 
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:05 pm

If this order goes to Boeing then my pick is it is for Austrian or Eurowings.
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:07 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
Lol ok. I'm sure Boeing will get right to work of that proposal. There's no way LH could say they are giving the 787 serious consideration with a straight face.


Maybe United's 787-10 has Impressed LH across the pond? The A350 seems like an awful lot of airplane to do 8-10 Hours...when it can do so much more
 
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:11 pm

WorldFlier wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Lol ok. I'm sure Boeing will get right to work of that proposal. There's no way LH could say they are giving the 787 serious consideration with a straight face.


Maybe United's 787-10 has Impressed LH across the pond? The A350 seems like an awful lot of airplane to do 8-10 Hours...when it can do so much more


Where is the cost crossover between 7810 and A359 per seat?
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:16 pm

zeke wrote:
However the 787-10 is more expensive than the A359, and less flexible.

Boeing and Airbus List price

777-200ER 295.2
777-200LR 334.0
777-300ER 361.5
777-8 394.9
777-9 425.8
787-8 239.0
787-9 281.6
787-10 325.8

A330-200 238.5
A330-800 (neo) 259.9
A330-200 Freighter 241.7
A330-300 264.2
A330-900 (neo) 296.4
A350-800 280.6
A350-900 317.4
A350-1000 366.5


Seriously...who pays list price?

I don't see it unreasonable that Boeing could discount the 787-10 to a much lower price than a discounted A350-900.
The plural of Airbus is Airbuses. Airbii is not a word.
There is no 787-800, nor 787-900 or 747-800. It's 787-8, 787-9, and 747-8.
A321neoLR is also unnecessary. It's simply A321LR.
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:17 pm

WorldFlier wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Lol ok. I'm sure Boeing will get right to work of that proposal. There's no way LH could say they are giving the 787 serious consideration with a straight face.


Maybe United's 787-10 has Impressed LH across the pond? The A350 seems like an awful lot of airplane to do 8-10 Hours...when it can do so much more


How could United's 787-10 have impressed LH when UA doesn't have the 787-10 yet?
The plural of Airbus is Airbuses. Airbii is not a word.
There is no 787-800, nor 787-900 or 747-800. It's 787-8, 787-9, and 747-8.
A321neoLR is also unnecessary. It's simply A321LR.
Airplanes don't have isles, they have aisles.
 
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:18 pm

WorldFlier wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Lol ok. I'm sure Boeing will get right to work of that proposal. There's no way LH could say they are giving the 787 serious consideration with a straight face.


Maybe United's 787-10 has Impressed LH across the pond? The A350 seems like an awful lot of airplane to do 8-10 Hours...when it can do so much more

The B787-10 of UA and BA will be the kings in the Atlantic.....no doubt
 
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:28 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
aviationaware wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:

But, LH lists 34 orders in its 2017 annual report at page 22. https://investor-relations.lufthansagro ... 2017-e.pdf

Personally, I don't truly understand what is going on. Boeing clearly doesn't consider them firm (I don't either because of this fact). But, LH does state it has 34 orders.


Boeing is forbidden to count those orders by accounting rules. Lufthansa as the customer on the other hand has no such restrictions, so they need not discern between outright orders, options and purchase rights in their report.


As I stated above, I’m aware it is the accounting rules probably forbidding Boeing from recognizing the order. LH, however, is also bound by accounting rules (different ones) though. They can’t record a liability on their books if it isn’t sufficient.


Right, but the order number is no accounting data for Lufthansa. It is for Boeing at the inverse of the contract relationship. The order number for Lufthansa is only a part of their nonfinancial disclosures in the annual report which is not subject to an audit and hence can define the word "order" at Lufthansa's pleasure. We are not talking about liabilities here.
The only number audited in this respect is their outstanding investment obligations / committments. And that is only a sum, not broken down to single orders in the report.
 
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:40 pm

zeke wrote:
pabloeing wrote:
With this numbers....the B787-10 is awesome LH network


However the 787-10 is more expensive than the A359, and less flexible.

Boeing and Airbus List price

777-200ER 295.2
777-200LR 334.0
777-300ER 361.5
777-8 394.9
777-9 425.8
787-8 239.0
787-9 281.6
787-10 325.8

A330-200 238.5
A330-800 (neo) 259.9
A330-200 Freighter 241.7
A330-300 264.2
A330-900 (neo) 296.4
A350-800 280.6
A350-900 317.4
A350-1000 366.5



no way lh pays more than like 150mm for a 787-10
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WIederling
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 4:04 pm

musman9853 wrote:
no way lh pays more than like 150mm for a 787-10

no way lh pays more than like 150mm for an A359 ?

Compare comparable things.
list vs list
rebated vs rebated.

actually no idea what LH would pay per A359 as an expansion of their existing A350 order.
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 4:44 pm

WIederling wrote:
actually no idea what LH would pay per A359 as an expansion of their existing A350 order.

What we can surmise is LH must not be happy with the fit of the A350 to their needs OR the pricing of the A350 options since they're choosing to re-evaluate the market rather than just exercising the A350 options.

Meanwhile UA exercises 9*789 options in a low profile move.
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 4:54 pm

zeke wrote:
pabloeing wrote:
With this numbers....the B787-10 is awesome LH network


However the 787-10 is more expensive than the A359, and less flexible.


You know as well as anyone here that list prices mean nothing.

Boeing recently secured some 787-9 orders from Airbus operators with much heavier discounts than it had been previously offering.

No indication that those discounts have been available on the 787-10 yet, but time will tell. I'm sure purchase price will be a very important factor in the ultimate decision. A $125M 787-10 is practically a different aircraft from a $160M 787-10 when you run the numbers.
 
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:03 pm

Revelation wrote:

What we can surmise is LH must not be happy with the fit of the A350 to their needs


We know it's not that, we have got this from their CEO a few months ago: " LH likes A350's performance, may order more"

http://aviationweek.com/awincommercial/ ... order-more


This order may not be a new thing, it's been referred to in the past.
 
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:07 pm

If the order is for LH itself, 787 has no chance. A350s are already on the property.
If the order id for LH Group member - like Austrian or Swiss - 787 would make ideal A330/767 replacement there.
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ewt340
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:19 pm

LOL, no.

They would milk A330 till the frame actually decomposed. And then they would probably look into A330neo in the future for a cheap bargain.
Many Airlines within their group still operated and planning to operate A330/A340 in the next decade. B787 would just be a burden for them.
And the last time I check, B777, B777X and B787 doesn't offer much commonality between each aircraft. So it's not like they got any edge to it in terms of operating cost. Looking at their Group destinations shows that B787 doesn't really hold a peach.

Probably try to get 50% discount from Airbus.
 
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:35 pm

ewt340 wrote:
LOL, no.

They would milk A330 till the frame actually decomposed. And then they would probably look into A330neo in the future for a cheap bargain.
Many Airlines within their group still operated and planning to operate A330/A340 in the next decade. B787 would just be a burden for them.
And the last time I check, B777, B777X and B787 doesn't offer much commonality between each aircraft. So it's not like they got any edge to it in terms of operating cost. Looking at their Group destinations shows that B787 doesn't really hold a peach.

Probably try to get 50% discount from Airbus.


lh technik has already gotten 787 maintenance contracts. getting a couple dozen 787s on property would be a good way to develop the maintenance side
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jbs2886
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:54 pm

BlueSky1976 wrote:
If the order is for LH itself, 787 has no chance. A350s are already on the property.


I don't understand why people keep saying this. A not insignificant number of airlines are operating both. There is nothing to indicate LH won't join them (maybe they won't, but the 787 certainly has a chance).
 
columba
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:56 pm

ewt340 wrote:
LOL, no.

They would milk A330 till the frame actually decomposed. And then they would probably look into A330neo in the future for a cheap bargain.
Many Airlines within their group still operated and planning to operate A330/A340 in the next decade. B787 would just be a burden for them.
And the last time I check, B777, B777X and B787 doesn't offer much commonality between each aircraft. So it's not like they got any edge to it in terms of operating cost. Looking at their Group destinations shows that B787 doesn't really hold a peach.

Probably try to get 50% discount from Airbus.


TTailedTiger wrote:
There's no way LH could say they are giving the 787 serious consideration with a straight face.


They are German business men and engineers negotiating with Boeing - they always have straight faces ;-)

gatibosgru wrote:
Nice way to get a deal on A350s ;)


More seriously I find it interesting that many people dismiss the idea that LH is not seriously looking at the 787. First of all they don´t want to mess up their business relation with Boeing. For LH itself and LH Group they have ordered quite a lot of aircraft over the last few years. 747-8Is (launch customer), 777-9, 777F, 77W. When they ordered additional aircraft over the last few years they never send out RFPs but ordered them: additional 777Fs, 77Ws for Swiss, A330s or A320s just recently. They have a lot of options for the A350s and I bet they get a very good deal on them back then. Also they know the aircraft in and out by now, they have all the specs they need.

Back when they went for the A350 over the 787-10 it was because they needed a larger long range aircraft and the 787-9 was too small for them and the -10 (which LH always wanted but Boeing designed it more for the likes of Emirates) offered not the range LH wanted back then. Also the 787 had some issues back in 2013 when LH placed the order. Headlines in Germany would have been "Lufthansa buys Boeing´s troubled jet" or similar. I doubt that they wanted that back then. Times have changed, the 787s is an established aircraft and well liked with passenger all over the world, the market has changed for Lufthansa as well so new chances for the Dreamliner.
Last edited by columba on Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:01 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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VictorKilo
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:00 pm

The 779 & remaining 359 orders roughly equal the combined 346 and 744 fleets.

That still leaves 22 343 (15 at LH, 5 at LX, 2 at SN/EW) to be replaced - and my guess is that this is what the order is targeted towards - and I could see the 789 slotting in to the 343 role.

Another factor at play is the 6 763 and 6 77E at OS, who currently fly no route year round that requires the range of the 77E. I could see this fleet being replaced by 10 78K or 339 for a dense, low CASM configuration within the range of the aircraft - and the same configuration at use at EuroWings too.
 
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:46 pm

musman9853 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
LOL, no.

They would milk A330 till the frame actually decomposed. And then they would probably look into A330neo in the future for a cheap bargain.
Many Airlines within their group still operated and planning to operate A330/A340 in the next decade. B787 would just be a burden for them.
And the last time I check, B777, B777X and B787 doesn't offer much commonality between each aircraft. So it's not like they got any edge to it in terms of operating cost. Looking at their Group destinations shows that B787 doesn't really hold a peach.

Probably try to get 50% discount from Airbus.


lh technik has already gotten 787 maintenance contracts. getting a couple dozen 787s on property would be a good way to develop the maintenance side


As I also pointed out, this is LH trying to get more A350's at bargain price.
As for TATL, EWT is right and the most likely scenario is a batch order for A330neo's.

You don't order an aircraft just to enhance your maintenance division's capabilities. That would be stupid. LH Technik will maintain whatever comes their way.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:18 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
LOL, no.

They would milk A330 till the frame actually decomposed. And then they would probably look into A330neo in the future for a cheap bargain.
Many Airlines within their group still operated and planning to operate A330/A340 in the next decade. B787 would just be a burden for them.
And the last time I check, B777, B777X and B787 doesn't offer much commonality between each aircraft. So it's not like they got any edge to it in terms of operating cost. Looking at their Group destinations shows that B787 doesn't really hold a peach.

Probably try to get 50% discount from Airbus.


lh technik has already gotten 787 maintenance contracts. getting a couple dozen 787s on property would be a good way to develop the maintenance side


As I also pointed out, this is LH trying to get more A350's at bargain price.
As for TATL, EWT is right and the most likely scenario is a batch order for A330neo's.

You don't order an aircraft just to enhance your maintenance division's capabilities. That would be stupid. LH Technik will maintain whatever comes their way.

What is stupid is to leave profit on the table. If operating a bunch of 787s makes the most profit when both operations and MRO is factored in, that's what you do.
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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jbs2886
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:35 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
LOL, no.

They would milk A330 till the frame actually decomposed. And then they would probably look into A330neo in the future for a cheap bargain.
Many Airlines within their group still operated and planning to operate A330/A340 in the next decade. B787 would just be a burden for them.
And the last time I check, B777, B777X and B787 doesn't offer much commonality between each aircraft. So it's not like they got any edge to it in terms of operating cost. Looking at their Group destinations shows that B787 doesn't really hold a peach.

Probably try to get 50% discount from Airbus.


lh technik has already gotten 787 maintenance contracts. getting a couple dozen 787s on property would be a good way to develop the maintenance side


As I also pointed out, this is LH trying to get more A350's at bargain price.
As for TATL, EWT is right and the most likely scenario is a batch order for A330neo's.

You don't order an aircraft just to enhance your maintenance division's capabilities. That would be stupid. LH Technik will maintain whatever comes their way.


Hmm, might want to tell that to DL, which secured exclusive maintenance contracts with RR on their A350 and A321neo orders.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:35 pm

SEPilot wrote:
LH never bought the 777 because they were committed to the A340 series. Many view that as a mistake on their part. And while they have committed to the A350, the 787 and A350 are not as close to the same as were the A340 and the 777. There are a number of airlines flying both. So, while I do give the A350 an edge here I do not by any means think it is a lock, assuming it is for LH itself. If it is for one of the other lines I think the 787 would have the edge.


LH received its first A340s a few years before the 777 was ready because they needed the planes sooner (LH was the launch customer of the A342 and second customer, after AF, for the A343). But the LH Group has ordered 777s for both LH (GEC), 3S (on lease), and LX (for which a top-up order has been placed as well).

What may drive this to Boeing is the need to replace the OS 767s and 777s, which could be done with a plane as small as a B789, since no first class is needed. I also suspect that the balance would go to EW's BRU operations.

PlanesNTrains wrote:
LHG held their noses and ordered the 748i.
LHG held their noses and ordered the 779.
LHG held their noses and ordered the 77W.
LHG can certainly hold their nose again and order the 787.


LH Group might be the only carrier who chose the 747-8I on merits...as they needed the J seat room. I suspect that the reason for the 77W order (for LX) might have been available slots since they needed the planes as leased A343s had to be returned to Airbus, but before the A350s were due. They're good belly cargo haulers though, and I suspect LX is making money there even if they can't fill the full Y cabin (LX being the second-highest premium carrier in LH Group after LH proper, which is why they're getting more). If LH knew now what it did then, would it have ordered 77Ws instead of 346s for LH proper, given that the 346s still have first class? (The A346 first flew in 2001; the B77W in 2003, and those likely replaced the 747-200Bs as D-AIHA arrived in 2003.)
 
behramjee
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:51 pm

***Below comments of mine are if the order is placed for LH only and not the LH Group of airlines which includes OS, LX and SN

Lufthansa currently operates 17 A346s + 15 A343s and its replacement aircraft i.e. the A359 will number a total of 25 units by year end. However as per the article, it holds options for 30 additional A350s.

LH's Airbus wide body aircraft fleet configuration is outlined below

A359s seat 293 pax (0F/48J/21W/224Y)
A346s seat 281 pax (8F/56J/28W/189Y)
A343s seat 251 pax (0F/42J/28W/181Y)
A333s seat 216 pax (8F/42J/21W/145Y)

Though the Boeing 787 family are a bunch of excellent aircraft for the mission that they operate especially the B789, since this order is presumably for LH only and not the LH Group in its entirety, I feel it is best for the airline to exercise the 30 options it currently holds at historic pricing levels to firm up the 20 units it requires.

The core problems for the Boeing 787 family in this order are as follows:

a) B789 would be too small for the high premium configuration that LH requires for its medium and long haul services especially considering that the B789 is slightly smaller than the A333.

b) The B781 range is approximately 11-11.5 hours which is too less for many of LH's routes to South America, South Africa, SE Asia and U.S. West Coast especially considering that LH is also a cargo focused airline and dont want payload restricted aircraft operating on popular routes where freight demand is heavy.

c) Introducing a new aircraft type into the LH mainline fleet mix which in turn would increase costs that can be easily avoided. If this order was for a LH Group subsidiary airline like Austrian (OS) then there is no doubt that the B789 is the best aircraft currently in the market to fully replace all the wide body aircraft operated by OS. It doesnt need the smaller B788 nor the larger B781 as the capacity and flying range of the B789 is ideally suited for OS across its entire medium/long haul route network.

Apart from the historic pricing levels for the A350s that LH can exercise in its favor with this order from Airbus other benefits that this aircraft family can provide to the carrier versus the B787 family are as follows:

a) Greater flying range flexibility of A359 and A351; both of which can operate 13-14 hour flights nonstop with a full payload and more so now the A351 319T MTOW version which can do 14-15 hours.

b) LH I feel needs to split the order to be 15 A351s and 5 A359s because the A346 that the A351 is perfectly suited to replace has a higher premium cabin seat count versus their current A359 i.e A346 has 8F + 8J more seats than the A359 which is big money for this premium yield focused airline.

c)The A351 will also seat approximately 25-30 more passengers in economy class as it has a 3-3-3 layout versus 2-4-2 on the A346 hence another form of incremental revenue with more seats available to sell at a much less operating cost.

d) If the MTOW A350-1000 version is ordered by LH, it can operate all of its current long haul routes nonstop without any payload restrictions what so ever with the exception of MEX-Mexico City due to its high altitude limitation which may pose an issue.

e) Fleet commonality as introducing a new aircraft type i.e. B787 into the WB fleet will un-necessary increase costs and create issues across many departments.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:01 pm

Why doesn't LH want to serve midsize markets? They never have and I don't see that changing which is why I think the 787 has no chance. Airbus only makes large wide-bodies and that seems to be all LH is interested in operating. Bigger is better isn't always the best philosophy. The only small widebody Airbus ever offered was the A310. After that it was to big or go home. Meanwhile the 767 and 787 had/have the midsize market to themselves. The A330 was never a 767 competitor. It was a 777 competitor. The A330 is much larger than a 767.
 
LH779
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:06 pm

behramjee wrote:
A343s seat 251 pax (0F/42J/28W/181Y)
A333s seat 216 pax (8F/42J/21W/145Y)

F was removed from the A333s and the mainline operated A343s only have 30J seats.

A333: (42J/28W/185Y)
A343: (30J/28W/221Y)
A343: (18J/21W/261Y) on 5 planes that are flown by Cityline pilots.

behramjee wrote:
... its replacement aircraft i.e. the A359 will number a total of 25 units by year end.

Currently 11, one more this year, three in 2019 and all 25 planes are supposed to be delivered by 2021.

TTailedTiger wrote:
Why doesn't LH want to serve midsize markets? They never have and I don't see that changing which is why I think the 787 has no chance. Airbus only makes large wide-bodies and that seems to be all LH is interested in operating. Bigger is better isn't always the best philosophy. The only small widebody Airbus ever offered was the A310. After that it was to big or go home. Meanwhile the 767 and 787 had/have the midsize market to themselves. The A330 was never a 767 competitor. It was a 777 competitor. The A330 is much larger than a 767.


A330-200/800 and A330-300/900 are very close to the 787-8 and -9 respectively, but obviously all of them larger than the 767.
Last edited by LH779 on Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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aemoreira1981
Posts: 2881
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:09 pm

behramjee wrote:
***Below comments of mine are if the order is placed for LH only and not the LH Group of airlines which includes OS, LX and SN

Lufthansa currently operates 17 A346s + 15 A343s and its replacement aircraft i.e. the A359 will number a total of 25 units by year end. However as per the article, it holds options for 30 additional A350s.

LH's Airbus wide body aircraft fleet configuration is outlined below

A359s seat 293 pax (0F/48J/21W/224Y)
A346s seat 281 pax (8F/56J/28W/189Y)
A343s seat 251 pax (0F/42J/28W/181Y)
A333s seat 216 pax (8F/42J/21W/145Y)

Though the Boeing 787 family are a bunch of excellent aircraft for the mission that they operate especially the B789, since this order is presumably for LH only and not the LH Group in its entirety, I feel it is best for the airline to exercise the 30 options it currently holds at historic pricing levels to firm up the 20 units it requires.

The core problems for the Boeing 787 family in this order are as follows:

a) B789 would be too small for the high premium configuration that LH requires for its medium and long haul services especially considering that the B789 is slightly smaller than the A333.

b) The B781 range is approximately 11-11.5 hours which is too less for many of LH's routes to South America, South Africa, SE Asia and U.S. West Coast especially considering that LH is also a cargo focused airline and dont want payload restricted aircraft operating on popular routes where freight demand is heavy.

c) Introducing a new aircraft type into the LH mainline fleet mix which in turn would increase costs that can be easily avoided. If this order was for a LH Group subsidiary airline like Austrian (OS) then there is no doubt that the B789 is the best aircraft currently in the market to fully replace all the wide body aircraft operated by OS. It doesnt need the smaller B788 nor the larger B781 as the capacity and flying range of the B789 is ideally suited for OS across its entire medium/long haul route network.

Apart from the historic pricing levels for the A350s that LH can exercise in its favor with this order from Airbus other benefits that this aircraft family can provide to the carrier versus the B787 family are as follows:

a) Greater flying range flexibility of A359 and A351; both of which can operate 13-14 hour flights nonstop with a full payload and more so now the A351 319T MTOW version which can do 14-15 hours.

b) LH I feel needs to split the order to be 15 A351s and 5 A359s because the A346 that the A351 is perfectly suited to replace has a higher premium cabin seat count versus their current A359 i.e A346 has 8F + 8J more seats than the A359 which is big money for this premium yield focused airline.

c)The A351 will also seat approximately 25-30 more passengers in economy class as it has a 3-3-3 layout versus 2-4-2 on the A346 hence another form of incremental revenue with more seats available to sell at a much less operating cost.

d) If the MTOW A350-1000 version is ordered by LH, it can operate all of its current long haul routes nonstop without any payload restrictions what so ever with the exception of MEX-Mexico City due to its high altitude limitation which may pose an issue.

e) Fleet commonality as introducing a new aircraft type i.e. B787 into the WB fleet will un-necessary increase costs and create issues across many departments.


The wrinkle here is: will the B777-9X have first class? This is relevant because it will say whether or not it's a B744 replacement (no first class) or an A346 replacement (which does have first class). The B744s are older, but the A346s are operated with 4-class sub-300-seat configurations while the B744s are in the 3-class 350-400 seat range. If the B779s replace the B744s, then the A35Ks would likely replace the A346s and have first class.

BTW, the A333s are now all 255-seaters with no first class (J42W28Y185).
 
LH779
Posts: 107
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:27 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
The wrinkle here is: will the B777-9X have first class? This is relevant because it will say whether or not it's a B744 replacement (no first class) or an A346 replacement (which does have first class). The B744s are older, but the A346s are operated with 4-class sub-300-seat configurations while the B744s are in the 3-class 350-400 seat range. If the B779s replace the B744s, then the A35Ks would likely replace the A346s and have first class.


If LH reduces the 779 order to 20 (or keeps it at that, whatever) the 779 could replace the 744 and A346 in FRA, an eventual A350-1000 order (maybe 15 + 5 more A359) would be for A346 replacement and growth in MUC.
When all the changing A333s and A346s between FRA and MUC is done there should be 6 or 7 A346s in FRA. FRA could be the only 779 base replacing 13 744s and 6 or 7 A346s.

In FRA you would have:
A333
A359
779
748
A388

MUC:
A359
A351
A388

Of course if LH decides to move some A333s back to MUC next year all of that can change ;)
Last edited by LH779 on Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
WorldFlier
Posts: 317
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:28 pm

hOMSaR wrote:
WorldFlier wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Lol ok. I'm sure Boeing will get right to work of that proposal. There's no way LH could say they are giving the 787 serious consideration with a straight face.


Maybe United's 787-10 has Impressed LH across the pond? The A350 seems like an awful lot of airplane to do 8-10 Hours...when it can do so much more


How could United's 787-10 have impressed LH when UA doesn't have the 787-10 yet?


They have a transatlantic JV, so I am sure they shared their analysis.
 
smartplane
Posts: 1024
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:28 pm

behramjee wrote:
***Below comments of mine are if the order is placed for LH only and not the LH Group of airlines which includes OS, LX and SN

Lufthansa currently operates 17 A346s + 15 A343s and its replacement aircraft i.e. the A359 will number a total of 25 units by year end. However as per the article, it holds options for 30 additional A350s.

LH's Airbus wide body aircraft fleet configuration is outlined below

A359s seat 293 pax (0F/48J/21W/224Y)
A346s seat 281 pax (8F/56J/28W/189Y)
A343s seat 251 pax (0F/42J/28W/181Y)
A333s seat 216 pax (8F/42J/21W/145Y)

Though the Boeing 787 family are a bunch of excellent aircraft for the mission that they operate especially the B789, since this order is presumably for LH only and not the LH Group in its entirety, I feel it is best for the airline to exercise the 30 options it currently holds at historic pricing levels to firm up the 20 units it requires.

The core problems for the Boeing 787 family in this order are as follows:

a) B789 would be too small for the high premium configuration that LH requires for its medium and long haul services especially considering that the B789 is slightly smaller than the A333.

b) The B781 range is approximately 11-11.5 hours which is too less for many of LH's routes to South America, South Africa, SE Asia and U.S. West Coast especially considering that LH is also a cargo focused airline and dont want payload restricted aircraft operating on popular routes where freight demand is heavy.

c) Introducing a new aircraft type into the LH mainline fleet mix which in turn would increase costs that can be easily avoided. If this order was for a LH Group subsidiary airline like Austrian (OS) then there is no doubt that the B789 is the best aircraft currently in the market to fully replace all the wide body aircraft operated by OS. It doesnt need the smaller B788 nor the larger B781 as the capacity and flying range of the B789 is ideally suited for OS across its entire medium/long haul route network.

Apart from the historic pricing levels for the A350s that LH can exercise in its favor with this order from Airbus other benefits that this aircraft family can provide to the carrier versus the B787 family are as follows:

a) Greater flying range flexibility of A359 and A351; both of which can operate 13-14 hour flights nonstop with a full payload and more so now the A351 319T MTOW version which can do 14-15 hours.

b) LH I feel needs to split the order to be 15 A351s and 5 A359s because the A346 that the A351 is perfectly suited to replace has a higher premium cabin seat count versus their current A359 i.e A346 has 8F + 8J more seats than the A359 which is big money for this premium yield focused airline.

c)The A351 will also seat approximately 25-30 more passengers in economy class as it has a 3-3-3 layout versus 2-4-2 on the A346 hence another form of incremental revenue with more seats available to sell at a much less operating cost.

d) If the MTOW A350-1000 version is ordered by LH, it can operate all of its current long haul routes nonstop without any payload restrictions what so ever with the exception of MEX-Mexico City due to its high altitude limitation which may pose an issue.

e) Fleet commonality as introducing a new aircraft type i.e. B787 into the WB fleet will un-necessary increase costs and create issues across many departments.

Excellent summation.

Whether LH will continue to offer F at all, or on as many routes, remains to be seen.

Fleet commonality is more of an issue in the US, where unions (and management) impose cost and structure around each model. In most of the rest of the World, not so much. Technik would see 787 acquisition as a benefit, and price work with no premium.
 
bigjku
Posts: 1906
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:49 pm

I think people who suggest just converting the A350 options may not be considering that those options are “out of the money” so to speak given recent developments.

If 787 pricing has dropped as much as reported I wouldn’t expect many long-held option conversions but rather new RFP’s. It impacts options held on both the 787 and the A350 in my view.

The question becomes if there is a significant divergence in the cost of the two and then for the airlines it is an equation of how much the extra capability they can utilize and how much it is worth to them. The issue for Airbus is if airlines start telling them the A350’s extra capabilities over the 787 are worth X and the cost of a 787 plus X is something they struggle to match while making worthwhile margin.

This is why driving rate up is so important for Airbus in my view. A 40% rate difference which is what it looks like it will be next year should equate to a 6% difference or so just based on the higher rate and not accounting for anything else that might make cost different. Tons of these options were contracted for when the assumptions seemed to be that Boeing would make 10 787’s a month and Airbus 10 A350’s. Those aren’t holding up now.

There is a reason Leahy kept talking about the A350 rate increase. He mentioned it as far back as 2015 and it kept being hinted at as soon as Boeing confirmed 14 in last half of 2017.

So I don’t think converting options is that straight forward. The 787 is likely priced differently now than it was when many of these contracts were let. That changes the equation for many things. What rate assumptions was/are Airbus chasing deals at? Is it 10 or 13? I suspect the original options were at the 10 rate as most orders predate rate 13 talks. If the price of a 787 has shifted down enough the capability difference might not make up the cost for many airlines.

I don’t see tons of options being taken up without huge modification on contracts let in the 2005-15 range for widebodies. I think the underlying assumptions are likely too different now to hold up.
 
Eyad89
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:03 pm

Revelation wrote:
What is stupid is to leave profit on the table. If operating a bunch of 787s makes the most profit when both operations and MRO is factored in, that's what you do.



What he meant is that it is unheard of to order a new aircraft type just because your maintenance team can get better at repairing it.

How's ordering A350 over 787 in this case would leave profit on the table? Factoring in operations in this case would definitely be in A350's favour since LH will have 25 A350s in service and 0 787s as the books stand currently, fleet commonality and all.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 1419
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:16 pm

Eyad89 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
What is stupid is to leave profit on the table. If operating a bunch of 787s makes the most profit when both operations and MRO is factored in, that's what you do.



What he meant is that it is unheard of to order a new aircraft type just because your maintenance team can get better at repairing it.

How's ordering A350 over 787 in this case would leave profit on the table? Factoring in operations in this case would definitely be in A350's favour since LH will have 25 A350s in service and 0 787s as the books stand currently, fleet commonality and all.


Agreed. The 777-9 really doesn't make much sense either. The only reason the 747-8 made any sense is because they already operated the 744 and could use the same pilots. I would think a long haul fleet centered around the A330 and A350 makes the most sense. The A380 was always just a show piece.
 
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hOMSaR
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:34 pm

WorldFlier wrote:
hOMSaR wrote:
WorldFlier wrote:

Maybe United's 787-10 has Impressed LH across the pond? The A350 seems like an awful lot of airplane to do 8-10 Hours...when it can do so much more


How could United's 787-10 have impressed LH when UA doesn't have the 787-10 yet?


They have a transatlantic JV, so I am sure they shared their analysis.


Analysis of what? The plane hasn't even been delivered. All they'd have to go by is whatever numbers Boeing provided at this point.
The plural of Airbus is Airbuses. Airbii is not a word.
There is no 787-800, nor 787-900 or 747-800. It's 787-8, 787-9, and 747-8.
A321neoLR is also unnecessary. It's simply A321LR.
Airplanes don't have isles, they have aisles.
 
JayBCNLON
Posts: 318
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:57 pm

Exactly!
 
WorldFlier
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:56 pm

hOMSaR wrote:
WorldFlier wrote:
hOMSaR wrote:

How could United's 787-10 have impressed LH when UA doesn't have the 787-10 yet?


They have a transatlantic JV, so I am sure they shared their analysis.


Analysis of what? The plane hasn't even been delivered. All they'd have to go by is whatever numbers Boeing provided at this point.


There is real-world United 787-10 flying test flights right now. Sure it's not perfect with passenger loads flying EWR-FRA...but with many years of experience United can extrapolate test flights to real world results in terms of fuel burn etc.

Here's one taking off to get away from a hurricane.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/first-united-787-10/
 
JayBCNLON
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:08 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
Eyad89 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
What is stupid is to leave profit on the table. If operating a bunch of 787s makes the most profit when both operations and MRO is factored in, that's what you do.



What he meant is that it is unheard of to order a new aircraft type just because your maintenance team can get better at repairing it.

How's ordering A350 over 787 in this case would leave profit on the table? Factoring in operations in this case would definitely be in A350's favour since LH will have 25 A350s in service and 0 787s as the books stand currently, fleet commonality and all.


Agreed. The 777-9 really doesn't make much sense either. The only reason the 747-8 made any sense is because they already operated the 744 and could use the same pilots. I would think a long haul fleet centered around the A330 and A350 makes the most sense. The A380 was always just a show piece.


Of course the A380 was not and is not a show case. It was the symbol that the two nations which pioneered commercial flight - Germany and France - were back at the top of aviation engineering. The A380 is - if given a choice - an aircraft preferred by most passengers.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:27 pm

JayBCNLON wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Eyad89 wrote:


What he meant is that it is unheard of to order a new aircraft type just because your maintenance team can get better at repairing it.

How's ordering A350 over 787 in this case would leave profit on the table? Factoring in operations in this case would definitely be in A350's favour since LH will have 25 A350s in service and 0 787s as the books stand currently, fleet commonality and all.


Agreed. The 777-9 really doesn't make much sense either. The only reason the 747-8 made any sense is because they already operated the 744 and could use the same pilots. I would think a long haul fleet centered around the A330 and A350 makes the most sense. The A380 was always just a show piece.


Of course the A380 was not and is not a show case. It was the symbol that the two nations which pioneered commercial flight - Germany and France - were back at the top of aviation engineering. The A380 is - if given a choice - an aircraft preferred by most passengers.


That must be why it is selling so well.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:49 pm

hOMSaR wrote:
Analysis of what? The plane hasn't even been delivered. All they'd have to go by is whatever numbers Boeing provided at this point.


This order isn't happening next week. UA will have been operating the 78J for some time by the time a final decision is made. LH will have good data available.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Wed Oct 24, 2018 12:24 am

Eyad89 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
What is stupid is to leave profit on the table. If operating a bunch of 787s makes the most profit when both operations and MRO is factored in, that's what you do.

What he meant is that it is unheard of to order a new aircraft type just because your maintenance team can get better at repairing it.

That might be relevant if 787 had no operational role at LH, but it's not hard to picture one.

How's ordering A350 over 787 in this case would leave profit on the table? Factoring in operations in this case would definitely be in A350's favour since LH will have 25 A350s in service and 0 787s as the books stand currently, fleet commonality and all.

Operationally we know LH likes to match capacity to demand more closely than other airlines. It minimizes trip cost and maximizes yield. 787-10 would be a great TATL and ME/India/Africa people bomber in LH's fleet and 787-8 would be a great long/thin route starter. As noted above, there's lots of airlines operating both A350 and 787.

Then add in the fact that more 787s in the group along with external customers would make for larger lot purchases on parts and you'll be able to beat other MROs prices.

In essence having both A350 and 787 in the group would let you make good money on MRO services for two fleets rather than one.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
ewt340
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Wed Oct 24, 2018 4:28 am

Revelation wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
musman9853 wrote:

lh technik has already gotten 787 maintenance contracts. getting a couple dozen 787s on property would be a good way to develop the maintenance side


As I also pointed out, this is LH trying to get more A350's at bargain price.
As for TATL, EWT is right and the most likely scenario is a batch order for A330neo's.

You don't order an aircraft just to enhance your maintenance division's capabilities. That would be stupid. LH Technik will maintain whatever comes their way.

What is stupid is to leave profit on the table. If operating a bunch of 787s makes the most profit when both operations and MRO is factored in, that's what you do.


Profit for LH group is fleet commonality, cheap purchasing price of aircrafts, and an aircraft that have the right range for their operations.
Operating bunch of B787 wouldn't automatically make them more money or profit. Knowing that Airbus would likely throw in some cheap A330-900neo with 251t mtow during Black Friday and some extra discount for A350 tandem order.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

Wed Oct 24, 2018 4:58 am

LH has rejected the A330NEO twice. And it is again not short listed in the current tender, so I dare say LH does not want it - at any price.

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Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos