Those over enthusiastic ramp ups have really backfired at several places.
it's definitely backfired in the shortterm, but longterm it just makes sense. Boeing has like a 7 year 737max backlog, and Airbus' is even longer. I wouldn't be surprised if in a few years, once this ramp has been sorted out, another rate increase to maybe like rate 70 in a few years.
The real risk on the backlogs is cancellations, particularly around the time either Airbus or Boeing (or someone else however unlikely it seems) offers something truely new in that space. Even the orders coming in are almost irrelevant. It all comes down to production rate they can actually manage. Even poor execution isn’t going to lead to meaningful cancellations. Even a slower And it’s a careful balancing act. The higher you drive your rate the more difficult any eventual transition to something new becomes.
I think managaing that transition will be the single most difficult C-level exercise in the history of both companies.
You really can’t announce a typical 7 plus year program and start taking orders. You will be clobbered by people trying to convert out of the current program which kills your cash flow. And you presumably will have to spin up production of anything new so you have huge cash flow disruption exposure for the period this is happening.
You almost need to drop an announcement that you will be ready to deliver in 3-4 years and at full rate production in 6. For this reason I expect any 737/A320neo replacement to be done with largely mature tech.
For Boeing and Airbus I would almost say trying to replace either program will be like trying to give yourself a heart transplant while walking around working. For everyone else who might want to compete the bar to entry gets higher with every rate jump. You just can’t make price points without the scale and the scale requires a huge order book and huge capital investment. BBD tried and it basically bankrupted the company.
Because of this I don’t think it matters if they botch it even in the short term. Airlines have no other options right now and the barriers for something realistic are insanely high.