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lightsaber
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Is there a launch customer for E2-175?

Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:09 pm

I was searching aviation news and I found a shocker that I hope is wrong. Seeking Aloha is saying Skywest dropped their E2 order. Has this been confirmed?

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3399011-e ... e-year-low

With the recent E1-175 sales, I'm not too worried about keeping the line going until the E2-195 hits stride. What I'm concerned about is a customer for the E2-175. Is there a customer?

Lightsaber
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zakuivcustom
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Re: Is there a launch customer for E2-175?

Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:23 pm

It's mainly accounting that the E175-E2 order is "dropped". Although the order is still VERY uncertain due to scope clause.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-release ... 34282.html

I believe Skywest remained the sole E175-E2 customer, though.
 
superbizzy73
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Re: Is there a launch customer for E2-175?

Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:00 pm

I know the E195-E2 was in the Seattle area not too long ago. What's the possibility of AS getting the E175-E2? (Please don't flame me...just an open-ended question.)
 
Varsity1
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Re: Is there a launch customer for E2-175?

Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:20 pm

superbizzy73 wrote:
I know the E195-E2 was in the Seattle area not too long ago. What's the possibility of AS getting the E175-E2? (Please don't flame me...just an open-ended question.)


They were demonstrating the HUD and autoland to Horizon. Some of the E2 features are now options on the E1 aircraft.

Scope isn't going up like the manufacturers bargained on, and they will pay dearly for it.
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Re: Is there a launch customer for E2-175?

Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:22 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
It's mainly accounting that the E175-E2 order is "dropped". Although the order is still VERY uncertain due to scope clause.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-release ... 34282.html

I believe Skywest remained the sole E175-E2 customer, though.


The scope clause is very, very unlikely to change in the future. The 175-E2 is dead in the US.
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zakuivcustom
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Re: Is there a launch customer for E2-175?

Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:24 pm

superbizzy73 wrote:
I know the E195-E2 was in the Seattle area not too long ago. What's the possibility of AS getting the E175-E2? (Please don't flame me...just an open-ended question.)


AS, like all the other major US Airlines, would need to change the scope clause to operate E175-E2 at a regional economics. Skywest already fly for AS, so I don’t see why not otherwise.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Is there a launch customer for E2-175?

Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:32 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
superbizzy73 wrote:
I know the E195-E2 was in the Seattle area not too long ago. What's the possibility of AS getting the E175-E2? (Please don't flame me...just an open-ended question.)


AS, like all the other major US Airlines, would need to change the scope clause to operate E175-E2 at a regional economics. Skywest already fly for AS, so I don’t see why not otherwise.

So no other customers (yet).

AS is the one airline immune from scope. But Skywest needs relief from other customers to exceed scope for one (correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the airline hired has to follow scope and not be a competitor). So it would have to be AS buying for Horizon. I fully admit to having forgotten about AS despite reading about it here not too long ago. :old:

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crazyplane1234
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Re: Is there a launch customer for E2-175?

Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:55 pm

It's the A330-800 all over again...
 
yonikasz
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Re: Is there a launch customer for E2-175?

Wed Oct 24, 2018 12:27 am

I don't see why United won't order it. They love RJs.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Is there a launch customer for E2-175?

Wed Oct 24, 2018 12:34 am

crazyplane1234 wrote:
It's the A330-800 all over again...


But that plane has at least 10 orders so far likely to be taken up.
 
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Re: Is there a launch customer for E2-175?

Wed Oct 24, 2018 12:41 am

yonikasz wrote:
I don't see why United won't order it. They love RJs.

The plane's MTOW is above 86,000 pounds. Thus, it violates pilot contract scope clauses. UA would have to fly mainline with all the mainline rules, pay, and benefits for not just the pilots, but everyone.
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JayWings
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Re: Is there a launch customer for E2-175?

Wed Oct 24, 2018 12:56 am

AS could easily buy the E175-E2 for QX while continuing to have OO fly the current fleet of Gen 1 175’s. For better or for worse AS/QX is the only airline in the US that doesn’t have scope, so there could be a place for the E2 variants at the Alaska Air Group.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Is there a launch customer for E2-175?

Wed Oct 24, 2018 1:16 am

I suppose AS could, but they'd be crazy to spend $1 Billion on 20-25 frames on an aircraft with no resale market.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Is there a launch customer for E2-175?

Wed Oct 24, 2018 1:45 am

lightsaber wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
superbizzy73 wrote:
I know the E195-E2 was in the Seattle area not too long ago. What's the possibility of AS getting the E175-E2? (Please don't flame me...just an open-ended question.)


AS, like all the other major US Airlines, would need to change the scope clause to operate E175-E2 at a regional economics. Skywest already fly for AS, so I don’t see why not otherwise.

So no other customers (yet).

AS is the one airline immune from scope. But Skywest needs relief from other customers to exceed scope for one (correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the airline hired has to follow scope and not be a competitor). So it would have to be AS buying for Horizon. I fully admit to having forgotten about AS despite reading about it here not too long ago. :old:

Lightsaber


I kept thinking Skywest and forgot about QX themselves :rotfl: .

Wouldn't surprised me one bit if AS eventually go that route. They have at least another year to make the decision anyway.

crazyplane1234 wrote:
It's the A330-800 all over again...


Totally different. A338 get no love b/c it simply doesn't offered much compare to A339. Ok, longer range, but A339 itself has the A332 range while one can fit more pax in an A339.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Is there a launch customer for E2-175?

Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:19 am

Why would AS order E175-E2’s when they have a large number of brand new E1’s? I’d honestly rather they took up some E190-E2’s before any of the 175’s.
-Dave


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Re: Is there a launch customer for E2-175?

Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:23 am

JayWings wrote:
AS could easily buy the E175-E2 for QX while continuing to have OO flyt the current fleet of Gen 1 175’s. For better or for worse AS/QX is the only airline in the US that doesn’t have scope, so there could be a place for the E2 variants at the Alaska Air Group.


So do you think AAG would lease the E1 aircraft to OO, to fly on their behalf? That would allow QX to operate the E2 type, which could have better economics for more direct flights to Seattle from smaller AK airports than the current 73G's or 800's.

As lightsaber had said earlier, indeed AAG would be the only fit in North America, which could kill any re-sale value, but doesn't AS have a pretty long history of squeezing 15-20 years out of their aircraft already? I know AS has a pretty steady flux on incoming & outgoing aircraft, which contributes heavily to the rather young average age of AAG aircraft. They could get their value out of them by then.

I know AAG found several surprises with the maintenance of the Airbus inherited from VX. While nothing illegal or scandalous, there is an understanding that VX did not have the same maintenance standards that AAG has in place, with all but essential fixes done on most of the aircraft. Maybe AAG could get a deal, being a launch customer for the type in America & replace some older A-319 & A-320's?

Again, it was nothing that warranted an investigation, but this acquisition has come with some large unexpected expenses as well as the majority of them that were expected. I understand in-flight crew are starting the cross training process as the crews still are separated.

When I told my F/A friend that CMH was public & starting on the A-320, she said to me, yeah, we knew that they would get it. It sounded like there is no cross overs yet for in-flight crew yet.
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lightsaber
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Re: Is there a launch customer for E2-175?

Wed Oct 31, 2018 8:19 pm

Embraers has officially removed the order from it's books:

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... acklog?amp

Late edit:. Before this order drop, the Embraer backlog was $13.6 billion (after JetBlue cancelation).

Wikipedia is hopelessly behind. Does anyone have the new total backlog, E1 backlog, and E2 backlog?

I get they are trying to firm Farnborough sales first, but what is the real status?
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PotatoPappas
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Re: Is there a launch customer for E2-175?

Wed Oct 31, 2018 8:35 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
superbizzy73 wrote:
I know the E195-E2 was in the Seattle area not too long ago. What's the possibility of AS getting the E175-E2? (Please don't flame me...just an open-ended question.)


They were demonstrating the HUD and autoland to Horizon. Some of the E2 features are now options on the E1 aircraft.

Scope isn't going up like the manufacturers bargained on, and they will pay dearly for it.



Isn't Horizon on of very few if not the only ones to use the autoland feature on the E1s?
 
amcnd
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Re: Is there a launch customer for E2-175?

Wed Oct 31, 2018 8:38 pm

This all more a accounting thing. SkyWest still has them on order. But I presume they can change them to the E1. It doesn’t make financial sense for a “contract” regional to operate the E2. The added cost of MX on the geared engines, extra landing gear MX and no way to recuperate those cost as they don’t pay for fuel..
 
iceberg210
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Re: Is there a launch customer for E2-175?

Wed Oct 31, 2018 9:17 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Embraers has officially removed the order from it's books:

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... acklog?amp

Late edit:. Before this order drop, the Embraer backlog was $13.6 billion (after JetBlue cancelation).

Wikipedia is hopelessly behind. Does anyone have the new total backlog, E1 backlog, and E2 backlog?

I get they are trying to firm Farnborough sales first, but what is the real status?

I think the Q3 numbers from Embraer at least to my eye seem accruate (Jetblue is cleaned up, 175E2 is gone)
https://daflwcl3bnxyt.cloudfront.net/m/ ... ISH_v6.pdf

If you're Embraer you have the first mover advantage and the market acceptance advantage, the Ejets are one of two dominant RJ's (the MRJ isn't in the market yet) and you have a reengine where the CRJ doesn't at this point. To capitalize on both I would think you should do anything and everything you can to get the 175E2 started. Seems to me even giving away the farm to Alaska (free upgrades from E1 to E2, or very very nice terms, or trade in the E1's) is probably in order. Say order of 35 +35 options (to replace the Q400's) and then do whatever you can to get Wideroe to convert a few options on the 175E2 that would at least get things rolling, while the other scope issues are sorted out. But the biggest thing is it also might be a good gambit that could increase the pressure to relax scope. If Alaska is running against United and Delta with 15%+ more efficient jets, never mind the maintenance advantages as well, it might put pressure on the other airlines to find a way (I don't expect it to happen for free) to expand scope. It seems to me like a really healthy and smart gambit, and one where you have very little to lose by trying, whereas you have a lot to lose by the 175E2 languishing so long that the two possible advantages in the market you have run out.

Recently Embraer put some pictures on twitter of the first 175E2 parts being cut, and that makes me wonder if they have something much like this up their sleeve that they haven't released. If for example they have knowledge that Alaska and Wideroe are likely to pull the trigger on it, it would make more sense to keep plowing forward with the 175E2. The reason I am thinking there might have to be something behind the curtain is that they've delayed the 175E2 before and could again if they had no one lined up for it, or they could have gone back to the drawing board and made a jet they could get orders for. It makes me think they must have something up their sleeve only because at this point if they didn't they should be working on a 175E2v2 ASAP.
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ScottB
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Re: Is there a launch customer for E2-175?

Wed Oct 31, 2018 9:20 pm

amcnd wrote:
This all more a accounting thing. SkyWest still has them on order. But I presume they can change them to the E1. It doesn’t make financial sense for a “contract” regional to operate the E2. The added cost of MX on the geared engines, extra landing gear MX and no way to recuperate those cost as they don’t pay for fuel..


It's not about the higher MX costs. The regionals fly on a cost-plus basis, so the expected maintenance costs of the E2 would be baked into the reimbursement rate from the mainline customer. And it'd still be advantageous for the mainline carrier to pay the higher rate to SkyWest if they made up those savings (and more) on fuel. The issue, as many have pointed out, is scope -- none of the legacy carriers apart from AS can outsource the E175-E2 to regional carriers because the MTOW is too high. With the pilot supply being very tight at present, it won't be worth it to the legacy carriers to buy (by way of higher wages and other concessions) expanded scope from their pilots.

MIflyer12 wrote:
I suppose AS could, but they'd be crazy to spend $1 Billion on 20-25 frames on an aircraft with no resale market.


The lack of resale market isn't the only issue; engine and parts support would also become an issue. You're basically going to be stuck with very high costs due to single suppliers and you have to make it worth their while to continue to support the aircraft.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Is there a launch customer for E2-175?

Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:05 pm

ScottB wrote:
amcnd wrote:
This all more a accounting thing. SkyWest still has them on order. But I presume they can change them to the E1. It doesn’t make financial sense for a “contract” regional to operate the E2. The added cost of MX on the geared engines, extra landing gear MX and no way to recuperate those cost as they don’t pay for fuel..


It's not about the higher MX costs. The regionals fly on a cost-plus basis, so the expected maintenance costs of the E2 would be baked into the reimbursement rate from the mainline customer. And it'd still be advantageous for the mainline carrier to pay the higher rate to SkyWest if they made up those savings (and more) on fuel. The issue, as many have pointed out, is scope -- none of the legacy carriers apart from AS can outsource the E175-E2 to regional carriers because the MTOW is too high. With the pilot supply being very tight at present, it won't be worth it to the legacy carriers to buy (by way of higher wages and other concessions) expanded scope from their pilots.

MIflyer12 wrote:
I suppose AS could, but they'd be crazy to spend $1 Billion on 20-25 frames on an aircraft with no resale market.


The lack of resale market isn't the only issue; engine and parts support would also become an issue. You're basically going to be stuck with very high costs due to single suppliers and you have to make it worth their while to continue to support the aircraft.

The per hour cost of the E2 is less than the E1 as noted. The issue is how much heavier the engines are.

The CF-34-8 is good on maintenance, but really bad on fuel. The PW1700, with it's really low pressure ratio, should be great on maintenance. Amcnd, you do realize that Embraer forced Pratt to guarantee maintenance at less cost.

The big cost isn't the gearbox. It is the 2nd high turbine stage. But if that doesn't save money, something is really wrong

It is utilization.

Lightsaber
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