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Planeflyer
Posts: 1528
Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2014 3:49 am

Re: Boeing Q3 2018

Sat Oct 27, 2018 11:21 pm

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/s ... /cash-flow

The above link shows FCF going back to 2013 and it makes clear that AB's cash flow woes are more structural than the recent engine problem suggests.

While it has improved over the past few years in 2017 FCF was $2.1 billion which is less than half of what Boeing generated this quarter. Through the first half of 2018 FCF was negative over 3 billion $. OK lack of engines is probably driving most of this but w AB be the the 380, the A400, the 330neo there are always negative surprises that they try to portray as a one off event.

I think new management has been brought into tighten things up.

And with the end of launch aid AB needs it can happen soon enough
 
SC430
Posts: 190
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:45 pm

Re: Boeing Q3 2018

Sun Oct 28, 2018 1:21 am

Eyad89 wrote:
Planeflyer wrote:


In theory AB could counter BA but in reality AB has not had the cash flow to counter BA for 3-4 years.




One of the reasons why Airbus is behind in cash is the maturity of its programs, and if you take a look of their high inventory you will see how that's eating its cash. A350 will only start generating a positive cash flow this year, and the A330NEO and A320NEO aren't helping either. In a year or two, when P&W starts delivering more reliable engines and the A330NEO starts taking off the cash flow should jump. The cash flow of 2017 is double what it was in 2016 for Airbus, and it should only get better from there. Don't forget the A220 family that Airbus suddenly got without spending anything, that should help them too.

That's without counting the big difference in cash between Boeing and Airbus in the defence division.


The major reason Boeing generates more cash than Airbus is because it is more efficient. Bottom line.
 
Planeflyer
Posts: 1528
Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2014 3:49 am

Re: Boeing Q3 2018

Sun Oct 28, 2018 2:00 am

We’ll sure but they also give themselves a chance by launching the right AC.
 
brindabella
Posts: 644
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2010 10:38 am

Re: Boeing Q3 2018

Sun Oct 28, 2018 1:20 pm

Bricktop wrote:
Planeflyer wrote:
In theory AB could counter BA but in reality AB has not had the cash flow to counter BA for 3-4 years.

This was the year AB management promised to start the improvement of cash flow but this will be not happen. I think the fact that AB is so poor at generating cash is the real reason for the management shakeup that we see.

Either the costs to produce the 32xx are way too high or the PP offered by JL were too low but something is terribly wrong in that AB is generating so little cash flow given the number of AC delivered.. Between the 350 and 32xx programs they should be able to correct the situation but they must move quickly making tough decisions if they don't want to fall further behind.

This is what I don't understand: A.net dogma is that the A32X program is a cash machine, especially the A321 which has a high share of the NB blend. I read repeatedly that the A380 is not hurting the P&L that badly, that the A350 rollout is going as planned, and that the A330neo program, while not setting the sales world on fire was so cheap to do, that it too is solid, and any 330ceos are being made on a paid off line as well. But Airbus doesn't seem to "show me the money". Can a.net dogma be wrong, or is my understanding lost in translation from Dutch, German or Icelandic?


Last time I looked at AB financials a few months ago the parked frames were hurting the FCF.

Badly.

However this does not stretch far enough to cover the complaints I have noted from Financial Analysts that when assessing AB's results they always have to find reasons why the FCF (almost) never comes through.

It seems to be an endemic problem. Hope it improves.

cheers
Billy
 
brindabella
Posts: 644
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2010 10:38 am

Re: Boeing Q3 2018

Sun Oct 28, 2018 1:24 pm

Planeflyer wrote:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/eadsy/financials/cash-flow

The above link shows FCF going back to 2013 and it makes clear that AB's cash flow woes are more structural than the recent engine problem suggests.

While it has improved over the past few years in 2017 FCF was $2.1 billion which is less than half of what Boeing generated this quarter. Through the first half of 2018 FCF was negative over 3 billion $. OK lack of engines is probably driving most of this but w AB be the the 380, the A400, the 330neo there are always negative surprises that they try to portray as a one off event.

I think new management has been brought into tighten things up.

And with the end of launch aid AB needs it can happen soon enough


Oops. stepped on Planeflyer.

He says it better than me!

:melting:

cheers
Billy
 
brindabella
Posts: 644
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2010 10:38 am

Re: Boeing Q3 2018

Sun Oct 28, 2018 1:39 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
VV wrote:
Oh no!! Not another damn thread full of gibberish on the deferred production cost.



Imagine the day when all the deferred costs are paid off. A new peeve will need to be found!


Total duration of the hang-time will be measured in milliseconds! :D
A certain contributor from the far far icy realm NW of Ireland will (again) comprehensively prove that BA is bankrupt to the tune of uncountable billions of dollars.

And nobody knew!

Rather reminds me of the story of the sad plight of the bumblebee - it is (supposedly) simple to prove that the poor insect can never become airborne due to excessive wing-loading.

(Matt - where the hell are you when we need you ??? :mad: :mad: )

To return - however the saving grace is that nobody has told the bumblebee yet - so, completely untroubled, it just goes about it's business.

So we must all agree not to tell Boing ... :shhh:

cheers
Billy
 
brindabella
Posts: 644
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2010 10:38 am

Re: Boeing Q3 2018

Sun Oct 28, 2018 1:46 pm

Planeflyer wrote:
Regards Muilenbergs comments, a good read is the earnings conference call held by Dassault systems the other day.

I’m guessing here but I think BA used the advances in 3d digital design married to know how gained in composites to win the tx and mq25 programs.

Dassault has publicly stated that in 2029 they will have massive implementation at BA which I assume will be used on the 797.

797 RD will ramp up as 777x ramps down so good flow to allow BA to perfect digital 3d design and new mfg methods in time to develop NG NB.

This the way to prep for China.

Long BA and Dassault!


Link please.

cheers
Billy
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9524
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

Re: Boeing Q3 2018

Sun Oct 28, 2018 5:41 pm

brindabella wrote:
Planeflyer wrote:
Regards Muilenbergs comments, a good read is the earnings conference call held by Dassault systems the other day.

I’m guessing here but I think BA used the advances in 3d digital design married to know how gained in composites to win the tx and mq25 programs.

Dassault has publicly stated that in 2029 they will have massive implementation at BA which I assume will be used on the 797.

797 RD will ramp up as 777x ramps down so good flow to allow BA to perfect digital 3d design and new mfg methods in time to develop NG NB.

This the way to prep for China.

Long BA and Dassault!


Link please.

cheers


GIYF :-)

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dassault ... 43967.html
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
brindabella
Posts: 644
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2010 10:38 am

Re: Boeing Q3 2018

Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:41 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
brindabella wrote:
Planeflyer wrote:
Regards Muilenbergs comments, a good read is the earnings conference call held by Dassault systems the other day.

I’m guessing here but I think BA used the advances in 3d digital design married to know how gained in composites to win the tx and mq25 programs.

Dassault has publicly stated that in 2029 they will have massive implementation at BA which I assume will be used on the 797.

797 RD will ramp up as 777x ramps down so good flow to allow BA to perfect digital 3d design and new mfg methods in time to develop NG NB.

This the way to prep for China.

Long BA and Dassault!


Link please.

cheers


GIYF :-)

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dassault ... 43967.html


Felicitations
Billy
 
brindabella
Posts: 644
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2010 10:38 am

Re: Boeing Q3 2018

Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:54 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
brindabella wrote:
Planeflyer wrote:
Regards Muilenbergs comments, a good read is the earnings conference call held by Dassault systems the other day.

I’m guessing here but I think BA used the advances in 3d digital design married to know how gained in composites to win the tx and mq25 programs.

Dassault has publicly stated that in 2029 they will have massive implementation at BA which I assume will be used on the 797.

797 RD will ramp up as 777x ramps down so good flow to allow BA to perfect digital 3d design and new mfg methods in time to develop NG NB.

This the way to prep for China.

Long BA and Dassault!


Link please.

cheers


GIYF :-)

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dassault ... 43967.html


Of course it is completely, utterly impossible to have any financial relationship because a French company and one from the US ...
Because ...

Well, actually I don't know why.

But in a different world, I could see Dassault and Boeing having a great deal to talk about ...

cheers
Billy
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 24989
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Boeing Q3 2018

Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:21 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
VV wrote:
Oh no!! Not another damn thread full of gibberish on the deferred production cost.

Imagine the day when all the deferred costs are paid off. A new peeve will need to be found!

Don't worry, the cat will still chase the laser pointer, even when it is turned off.

Eyad89 wrote:
Don't forget the A220 family that Airbus suddenly got without spending anything, that should help them too.

Take us through this: When would A220 start producing positive cash flow for Airbus?

From what I recall BBD was committed to having to sink more money into the JV over the first three years, meaning it isn't expected to be cash positive over that period, and this was before they decided they needed to set up the US FAL.

Wiki says:

On 16 October 2017, Airbus and Bombardier Aerospace announced a partnership on the CSeries program, with Airbus acquiring a 50.01% majority stake, Bombardier keeping 31% and Investissement Québec 19%, to expand in an estimated market of more than 6,000 new 100-150 seat aircraft over 20 years. Airbus's supply chain expertise should save production costs but headquarters and assembly remain in Québec while U.S. customers would benefit from a second assembly line in Mobile, Alabama. This transaction was subject to regulatory approvals and was expected to be completed in 2018.[100] Airbus did not pay for its share in the program, nor did it assume any debt.[101][102] Airbus insists that the company has no plan to buy out Bombardier's stake in the C-series program and Bombardier would remain a strategic partner after 2025, however clauses allow it to buy out Quebec's share in 2023 and Bombardier's 7 years after the deal closes, though it also stipulates production is required to remain in Quebec until at least 2041.[103][104]

So its current structure doesn't look likely to change for the next 5-7 years and presumably any cash flow out of it over that period would need to be dividends shared 50/50 with BBD+QC and subject to tax.

I'm no expert on high finance but it seems it'd make more sense to keep the money within the JV till Airbus decides to buy more or all of it in the 2023-5 time frame presumably using stock swaps instead of cash to finance the bulk of it.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1787
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: Boeing Q3 2018

Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:25 pm

brindabella wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
brindabella wrote:

Link please.

cheers


GIYF :-)

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dassault ... 43967.html


Of course it is completely, utterly impossible to have any financial relationship because a French company and one from the US ...
Because ...

Well, actually I don't know why.

But in a different world, I could see Dassault and Boeing having a great deal to talk about ...

cheers
Yeah, it's not like a French and US company power the majority of narrowbodies currently being produced or anything.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2365
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Boeing Q3 2018

Tue Oct 30, 2018 3:11 pm

Revelation wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
VV wrote:
Oh no!! Not another damn thread full of gibberish on the deferred production cost.

Imagine the day when all the deferred costs are paid off. A new peeve will need to be found!

Don't worry, the cat will still chase the laser pointer, even when it is turned off.

Eyad89 wrote:
Don't forget the A220 family that Airbus suddenly got without spending anything, that should help them too.

Take us through this: When would A220 start producing positive cash flow for Airbus?

From what I recall BBD was committed to having to sink more money into the JV over the first three years, meaning it isn't expected to be cash positive over that period, and this was before they decided they needed to set up the US FAL.

Wiki says:

On 16 October 2017, Airbus and Bombardier Aerospace announced a partnership on the CSeries program, with Airbus acquiring a 50.01% majority stake, Bombardier keeping 31% and Investissement Québec 19%, to expand in an estimated market of more than 6,000 new 100-150 seat aircraft over 20 years. Airbus's supply chain expertise should save production costs but headquarters and assembly remain in Québec while U.S. customers would benefit from a second assembly line in Mobile, Alabama. This transaction was subject to regulatory approvals and was expected to be completed in 2018.[100] Airbus did not pay for its share in the program, nor did it assume any debt.[101][102] Airbus insists that the company has no plan to buy out Bombardier's stake in the C-series program and Bombardier would remain a strategic partner after 2025, however clauses allow it to buy out Quebec's share in 2023 and Bombardier's 7 years after the deal closes, though it also stipulates production is required to remain in Quebec until at least 2041.[103][104]

So its current structure doesn't look likely to change for the next 5-7 years and presumably any cash flow out of it over that period would need to be dividends shared 50/50 with BBD+QC and subject to tax.

I'm no expert on high finance but it seems it'd make more sense to keep the money within the JV till Airbus decides to buy more or all of it in the 2023-5 time frame presumably using stock swaps instead of cash to finance the bulk of it.


In the grand scheme of things, the A220 production rate will remain quite small for at least the next few years. 45 deliveries to date, so even with improvements 50 a year seems optimistic, about 10% of the A320 series. Then as half the small profit divides up 50-50, its contribution to the whole will be small. Technically the A220 is a very good plane, I hope it succeeds well.
 
brindabella
Posts: 644
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2010 10:38 am

Re: Boeing Q3 2018

Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:17 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
brindabella wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:


Of course it is completely, utterly impossible to have any financial relationship because a French company and one from the US ...
Because ...

Well, actually I don't know why.

But in a different world, I could see Dassault and Boeing having a great deal to talk about ...

cheers
Yeah, it's not like a French and US company power the majority of narrowbodies currently being produced or anything.


Ahem! Good point!

:bigthumbsup:


cheers
Billy

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