What is the likelihood of Saudia or Kuwait growing enough to rival the ME3? Your thoughts on this?

Short answer None , neither state encourage connections in any meaningful way.

The plus four is without doubt Omanair imho.

3 is already too many. Looks more like ME2.5 right now

I agree that Oman Air is no. 4, maybe someday 3rd. Great service and friendly staff. Their growth is very conservative, it may take a few years. I wish they would add HKG soon.

I thought it was already pretty clear TK is taking that title from EY.

rutankrd wrote:

Short answer None , neither state encourage connections in any meaningful way.

The plus four is without doubt Omanair imho.

They need to encourage and plan for connections.

They also must encourage more female travel. Every married road warrior I know, the female dictactes at what airline the miles are earned. EK did well in this regard.

Not to mention, most road warriors drink enough to drown a fish.. EK has the bar for a reason...

You cannot tell customers your service is good enough, they tell you.

Lightsaber

Hey guys,
I agree that Emirates and Qatar are the leaders for the foreseeable future, with Etihad challenging but appearing to fall by the wayside. Turkish is in a position of its own, being part ME and part Euro in my opinion but worthy of being in the same 'class' as Emirates and Qatar.
I can see Saudia growing much larger, as well as Iran Air when 'things' normalise in the way that I expect they will inevitable in the longer term in Iran. Iran Air didn't 'order' all of those Boeing, Airbus and ATR planes without reason after all. Eventually Saudi Arabia will open up for tourism I believe and this will boost their fortunes.
Kuwait and Omanair have their place. The latter will expand further but I don't think it will ever rival the other ME heavyweights. Gulf Air will continue to slowly reboot...
The ME unknowns in terms of future size and scope are I believe MEA, Royal Jordanian and Egyptair. All three may grow quickly, may stay on the course that they are on and slowly expand their fleets or may just be happy how they are now in terms of size and scope.
In terms of Australia, where I live, the current ME3 have multiple daily flights. Turkish every now and then talks about Australian services but none are yet firmed up. Gulf Air and MEA have been and gone with their services over the decades and Egyptair did try once many years ago. All three could try again, especially MEA, but it's unlikely. I doubt Kuwait and Royal Jordanian would ever try but I seem to remember hearing that Omanair had considered Australia in the long term.
Saudia and Iran Air? I have a feeling that just maybe some day Saudia might try out Australia... And I believe that Sydney was mentioned by Iran Air in the heady days of sanctions being 'lifted'.
And then there are the LCCs like flyDubai and Air Arabia. How big can they expand? Could they introduce long-haul LCC like Norwegian, Air Asia X, Scoot and Jetstar?
Cheers,
Bunumuring

caliboy93 wrote:

What is the likelihood of Saudia or Kuwait growing enough to rival the ME3? Your thoughts on this?

Saudia...no, even though they operate a pretty sizable fleet well above the size of EY's 111-strong fleet (Saudia's fleet is 185 aircraft). WY and GF have carved out niches as good regional carriers, but like KU, neither desires to grow to be a behemoth in terms of flight operations.

The airline that is likely to rival the ME3, with the ability to right-size its routes, is TK, which can serve most of Africa with narrow-body planes and relies on mid-sized twins for growth, with (excluding the Y354 hajj A343s) nothing too big (the largest planes are the B77Ws with 349 seats). The new IST will be a game-changer for TK, as they're having to send out planes as large as the B77W on short hops like IST-TLV (when the ideal plane would be the A321) because the current IST is bursting at the seams.

RJ

Saudia is not a bad airline , but much more restrictive than the ME3 which offer a very nice and westernized product by anyone’s standards.
Not allowing alcohol is huge in my opinion.
If one connects in Qatar or UAE you can very much enjoy the stopover in the airport, shopping, luxury restaurants and bars. All my experiences in Saudi Arabia, were nothing short of unpleasant- at least until on board aircraft . I will admit it has been quite a few years since I’ve been there but doubt it’s changed

Saudia has potential , massive numbers of visitors every year, big domestic market , lack of drunks is a big plus

Oman Air has the greatest potential.

Gulf Air seems to want to give it another try.

I always consider Kuwait Airways as a dark horse but their government does not seem as interested in building into a major network carrier.

I seem to always bring this up, but I always wonder how the ultra-high sumner temperatures in Kuwait could impede the progress of an ultra-ambitious KU...

I was tracking their temps this past summer and it hovered around 46°C to 50°C every day. It was almost always 3-6°C hotter than even DXB or DOH.

Saudia and Iran Air will never serve booze so I think that curtails their ambitions to be hub and spoke network carriers.

The airline that is geographically perfect, a good onboard product, serve booze, a major alliance membership and a decent amount of O&D is Middle East Airlines of Lebanon — they could go big time if they want (and if the neocons in Washington would allow them into US or Canadian airspace).

The 'one stop to anywhere' concept.There is much more to it than geography!Just putting pins in countries that are near Dubai ain't gonna cut it -really.Just ask Ethiad.

I have always considered an ME2+1 (the +1 being TK), without Etihad, since it started spiralling down in 2017. My take on this:

EK and QR: the giants. EK has always been the leader. Despite the blockade, QR continues its aggressive expansion in Asia and elsewhere.

SV: a huge fleet, close to QR (184 vs. 223), but not much of a drive for international expansion. It is a dry airline, which is a turn-off for many.

EY: the fallen giant. Keeps shrinking routes and services. A lot of trimming has to be done.

WY: the closest Gulf airline to achieving the connector status once held by EY. They have a solid product and expansion strategy. However F will be limited to LHR.

LY: close to WY. The 787s have been beneficial to it. However, like QR, it is hamstrung by not being able to serve most ME destinations other than possibly AMM in the future.

GF: it is trying to be a phoenix here. Let's see how far it goes. The high-and-mighty Etihad (not so high and mighty as EK, of course) has been brought down, so the likes of WY and GF stand a chance to start service to (for starters) PER and NYC in the next few years.

KU: it has greatly improved its perception which was terrible for many years, but will it stand?

RJ and ME: two much smaller airlines with not much of a network, especially ME. I don't know why ME is in an alliance when the much larger WY is not.

IR and W5 (Mahan): they have potential and IR has a few new aircraft, but how far will they be able to grow? I'd also count EP (Iran Aseman) as a possibility.

Which brings me to the yet-to-be-unleashed giant:

TK: come New Year's Day, and we'll see if the new IST turns out to be the DXB-killer it is built to be. The biggest gaps in TK's networks are India (beyond BOM/DEL) and Australia. Once TK gets 787s and A350s, it should start PER (at least) in Australia, and BLR and HYD in India, with possibly MAA, CCU and AMD in the future. Then it should be able to grab a chunk of Indian travellers to Europe away from the ME2 and (in the not-so-distant future) 6E.

ramzi wrote:

I thought it was already pretty clear TK is taking that title from EY.

You have a good one here

However most of Istanbul and main airport is in Europe... Turkey is a bit special and I would not call TK a ME country

caliboy93 wrote:

What is the likelihood of Saudia or Kuwait growing enough to rival the ME3? Your thoughts on this?

ZERO. No one wants to fly Sharia Air when flying from Europe to Asia

Azerbaijan is oil-rich and very close to the Middle East, I wonder if they have expansion plans for their airline?

caliboy93 wrote:

What is the likelihood of Saudia or Kuwait growing enough to rival the ME3? Your thoughts on this?

Does anyone know why is Kuwait Airways not allowed to fly nonstop to the US unlike the ME3, SV, etc...? I assume it's for security reasons.

L0VE2FLY wrote:

Does anyone know why is Kuwait Airways not allowed to fly nonstop to the US unlike the ME3, SV, etc...? I assume it's for security reasons.

Yup, security reasons. PK had the same challenge before they cut JFK.

I think KU is currently more focused on regaining its local market share that it slowly lost to the ME3 over the past 2 decades. I also assume very few people might consider connecting through KWI as its a horrible experience. The new Terminal 4 dedicated to KU may make connecting more pleasant but I think KU will have to wait until the Foster+Partners terminal 2 is open before being able to offer an experience similar to DXB or HIA.

L0VE2FLY wrote:

Does anyone know why is Kuwait Airways not allowed to fly nonstop to the US unlike the ME3, SV, etc...? I assume it's for security reasons.

It is for security reasons, as security at terminal 1 was anything but acceptable. The plan is to revert the JFK flight back to non-stop once its moved to terminal 4.

SV has definitely upped its game in recent years, offering a very good product in Economy across their entire network and fleet unlike MS/AH/AT/WY etc who may showcase their best product on the London or New York route but operate crappy 737s with no PTVs for the rest of their routes.
People don't realise it but Saudi Arabia is a massive destination for (religious) tourism. They practically have a built in customer base in countries like Pakistan/Malaysia/Indonesia etc whers the absence of alcohol is not a hindrance but a selling point.
SV is unique in the region in that they have a dual hub strategy. If everything was at JED it would be more obvious how massive their international ops are. The new JED terminal opening could be a game changer for them and allow for real expansion.

vahancrazy wrote:

ramzi wrote:

I thought it was already pretty clear TK is taking that title from EY.

You have a good one here

However most of Istanbul and main airport is in Europe... Turkey is a bit special and I would not call TK a ME country

The Middle East is by definition a region spanning across continents. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East

Seriously, I cannot imagine RJ, SV, or ME getting anywhere close to TK in the coming decade.

duplicate

duplicate

duplicate

vahancrazy wrote:

ramzi wrote:

I thought it was already pretty clear TK is taking that title from EY.

You have a good one here

However most of Istanbul and main airport is in Europe... Turkey is a bit special and I would not call TK a ME country

I wouldn't call them a ME country, although by definition they are, but they are the competition.

There is a new game (soon) in town for connections. Once TK moves over to the new IST... They win.

A huge fraction of traffic connects. Every new airline must offer more than the existing network airlines that compete.

P2P is good. P2P subsidized by connections... better.

No one else has the O&D to compete. You cannot limit your market and be competitive.

Lightsaber

VTCIE wrote:

RJ and ME: two much smaller airlines with not much of a network, especially ME. I don't know why ME is in an alliance when the much larger WY is not.

.[/list]

ME feeds passengers from Europe to the gulf. Every flight I take from BEY to DXB, I see a lot of europeans on the flight coming on ME flights and connecting at BEY to DXB, AMM, Kuwait, Qatar and Abu Dhabi which most of these destinations are not covered by European carriers. I think this is why ME is a member of Skyteam.

ramzi wrote:

vahancrazy wrote:

ramzi wrote:

I thought it was already pretty clear TK is taking that title from EY.

You have a good one here

However most of Istanbul and main airport is in Europe... Turkey is a bit special and I would not call TK a ME country

The Middle East is by definition a region spanning across continents. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East

Seriously, I cannot imagine RJ, SV, or ME getting anywhere close to TK in the coming decade.

Thank you! I always thought it was only in Asian, that's intresting!

btw, I agree with your comment on RJ, SV or ME (or LY).

Oman Air has better service than both EK and EY in Business Class, plus a better hard product than most of their aircraft. MCT is just about as convenient for connections as DXB and DOH are too so they could eat up EY easily