FAQ

AS OF JULY 2018 THERE ARE CHANGES TO THE FORMAT OF THIS REPORT...SEE BELOW

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...prior year departures are now shown in brackets e.g. [0].

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5[4] JAN 4>5[4]
XXX Departure IATA code, YYY Arrival IATA code, Month, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of last week, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of this week, in brackets is the number of Average Departures/Day over the month that were scheduled one year earlier. So, it means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. It also means that there were 4 roundtrips the prior year in each month. No other months were changed. I average two directions.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
NEW CHANGE-Sometimes airlines do not load their schedules for the entire 330 day standard sales window. Southwest and many LCCs load their schedules for as little as 5 months into the future. When these flight are extended into a new sales month, it becomes a "schedule change". Previously, I have manually deleted these in many cases and replaced them with a Year-Over-Year compare. Effective immediately, this will now change. When a flight is loaded from 0 departures X departures, where X was the same the prior year, the record will not be shown. For example, if Delta loaded ATL-EGE MAR 0>1(1), it would not be shown because this additional flight does not represent a real year-over-year addition. Similarly, if B6 extended their schedule a record like this ATL-BOS JUL 0>4(4) would not be shown. It will be shown if the flight frequency changed from the prior year. So B6 ATL-BOS JUL 0>3(4) would be shown. If a partial month was loaded in a core schedule that became a full schedule month, those changes may be shown under this logic. For example, WN BNA-SEA 0.3>2(2). Because only a fraction of the month was previously loaded for sale, these changes will not be filtered out. I may, however, manually remove them to declutter.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month. The following criteria are used to show a change: 1) The change must be at least 6 roundtrips per month with no exceptions, 2) changes of at least 6/week are always shown, 3) routes that are added or dropped are shown subject to the change minimum, and 4) in all other cases routes must change by 20% to be shown. For example, if a route changed from 21/week to 18/week it would not be shown because the change is -14.3%. This is done to filter minor changes that occur in large numbers.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. If the route has more than 2 daily flights, departures are rounded, but in cases of less than 2 departures per day a fraction is shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
Seats are not shown. That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard or overlapping schedule periods that see the same flight number in two places at once. These cause flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*". This comparison is versus the corrected version posted downthread last week.



NOTE: Back on schedule today. Hopefully a good sign for the future!

4B DFW-VCT NOV 0>0.5[0] DEC 0>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>1.0[0] MAR 0>1.0[0] APR 0>1.0[0] MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>1.0[0]
4B IAH-VCT NOV 0>1.1[0] DEC 0>2[0] JAN 0>2[0] FEB 0>2[0] MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>2[0] MAY 0>2[0] JUN 0>2[0]
4B MCE-OAK NOV 0>1.1[1.7] DEC 0>1.2[1.7]

4O GDL-LAS DEC 0.6>1.0[0.7]

7H ANC-MCG JUL 0.0>0.5[0]
7H BET-VAK JUL 1.3>0.9[0.9]
7H EEK-KWN JUL 1.8>1.4[1.3]
7H FAI-GAL JUL 1.9>2[2]
7H FAI-RBY JUL 1.1>0.6[0.6]
7H GAL-KAL JUL 0.7>1.0[1.0]
7H GAL-NUL JUL 0.7>1.0[1.0]
7H GAL-RBY JUL 1.1>0.6[0.6]
7H HPB-SCM JUL 1.3>0.9[0.9]
7H KAL-NUL JUL 0.7>1.0[1.0]
7H KTS-OME JUL 0.0>0.9[0]
7H KTS-TLA JUL 0.9>0[0.9]
7H KWN-TOG JUL 0.8>0[0]
7H OME-TLA JUL 0.9>0[0.9]

A7 CEN-CSL NOV 0.4>0[0]
A7 CSL-CSL NOV 0.2>0[0] DEC 0.2>0[0]
A7 CSL-CUL NOV 0.4>0[0] DEC 0.4>0[0]
A7 CSL-HMO NOV 0.6>0[0] DEC 0.5>0[0]
A7 CSL-LAP NOV 0.6>0[0]
A7 CSL-LMM NOV 0.7>0[0]
A7 CSL-MZT NOV 0.6>0[0] DEC 0.4>0[0]
A7 CSL-PVR NOV 0.4>0[0] DEC 0.4>0[0]

AA ABQ-ORD JAN 1.5>2[1.9] FEB 1.7>2[1.9]
AA AUS-ORD JAN 3>4[3]
AA DFW-EGE APR 1.0>0.1[1.1] MAY 1.0>0[1.0]
AA DFW-FAT APR 1.9>2[1.9] MAY 1.9>2[2] JUN 1.8>2[3] JUL 1.9>2[3]
AA DFW-JAC JUN 1.0>1.8[1.8] JUL 1.0>2[2]
AA DFW-LAX MAY 13>15[13] JUN 13>15[13] JUL 13>15[13]
AA DFW-RNO APR 2>3[2]
AA DFW-SAF APR 3>4[3] MAY 3>4[3] JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3]
AA DFW-SHV JUN 5>6[5] JUL 5>6[5]
AA KOA-LAX APR 1.5>1.1[1.6]
AA KOA-PHX APR 1.0>0.6[0.6]
AA LAX-LIH APR 1.6>1.2[1.6]
AA MSP-ORD JAN 6>7[6]
AA ORD-TPA JAN 3>4[3]

But net zero...
*AC RDU-YUL JUN 0>0.9[0] JUL 0>1.0[0]
AC RDU-YYZ MAY 4>3[4] JUN 4>3[4] JUL 4>3[4]

AD CNF-MCO FEB 0.4>0.2[0.5]
AD MCO-REC FEB 0.4>0.2[0.6]

*AI BOM-JFK DEC 0>0.4[0] JAN 0>0.4[0] FEB 0>0.4[0] MAR 0>0.5[0] APR 0>0.4[0] MAY 0>0.5[0] JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0]

AM IAD-MEX DEC 0.9>0.1[1.0] JAN 0.2>0[0.8]
AM LAS-MEX APR 1.0>1.3[1.8] MAY 1.0>1.3[1.7] JUN 1.0>1.3[2] JUL 1.0>1.3[2]
AM MCO-MEX APR 1.0>1.3[2.0] MAY 1.0>1.3[1.8] JUN 1.0>1.3[2] JUL 1.0>1.3[2]

AS PHX-SFO MAR 1.7>1.3[2.0]
AS SAN-SJC MAR 2>4[3]
AS SEA-STL MAR 1.0>1.4[1.7] APR 1.0>2[2] MAY 1.0>2[1.9] JUN 1.6>2[1.7]

B6 BOS-PSP MAR 0.3>0.6[0] APR 0.3>0.6[0]
*B6 FLL-GYE MAR 0>1.0[0] APR 0>1.0[0] MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>0.4[0]

DL ATL-SEA JUN 9>8[7]
*DL CHS-MSP JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>1.0[0]
*DL CMH-SLC JUN 0>0.5[0] JUL 0>1.0[0]
DL CVG-MCI JUL 1.3>1.0[1.2]
DL DTW-MQT MAR 1.0>1.9[1.8] APR 1.0>1.7[1.9]
*DL DTW-SMF JUN 0>0.5[0] JUL 0>1.0[0]
DL IAD-JFK APR 3>4[3] MAY 3>4[3] JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3]
That's kinda surprising.
*DL IAD-SEA JUN 1.0>1.4[0.8] JUL 1.0>2.0[1.0]
DL JAC-SLC JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3]
DL MCO-SEA JUN 1.0>1.2[1.0]

It appears F9 dropped a bunch of routes...
F9 ATL-DEN DEC 1.3>1.0[1.3]
F9 AUS-CMH JAN 0.3>0.0[0]
F9 AUS-MSY JAN 0.3>0.1[0.4]
F9 AUS-ONT JAN 0.3>0.1[0.4]
F9 AUS-RDU JAN 0.5>0.1[0.4] FEB 0.6>0.3[0.4]
*F9 AUS-SJC JAN 0.3>0.0[0] FEB 0.3>0[0] MAR 0.3>0[0] APR 0.3>0[0.3]
*F9 BNA-TTN JAN 0.3>0.1[0] FEB 0.3>0[0]
F9 CHS-PHL JAN 0.3>0.1[0]
F9 CLT-PHL JAN 1.0>0.6[0.6]
*F9 CVG-SAT JAN 0.5>0.1[0] FEB 0.4>0[0] MAR 0.4>0[0] APR 0.4>0[0.3]
F9 DEN-GEG JAN 0.3>0.0[0]
F9 DEN-MSY DEC 0.9>0.7[1.0]
*F9 GSP-LAS JAN 0.3>0.1[0] FEB 0.3>0[0] MAR 0.3>0[0] APR 0.3>0[0]
*F9 GSP-MCO JAN 0.3>0.1[0] FEB 0.3>0[0] MAR 0.3>0[0] APR 0.3>0[0]
F9 IAH-RDU JAN 0.3>0.0[0]
F9 ISP-MCO DEC 1.4>1.1[2.0]
F9 LAS-MEM JAN 0.3>0.1[0.6]
F9 LAS-RDU JAN 1.0>0.6[1.0]
*F9 MCI-RDU JAN 0.3>0.1[0] FEB 0.3>0[0] MAR 0.3>0[0] APR 0.3>0[0.4]
F9 MCO-MSY JAN 0.7>0.1[1.0] FEB 0.7>0.4[1.0]
*F9 MCO-PIT JAN 0.3>0.0[0.4] FEB 0.3>0[0.4] MAR 0.3>0[0.4] APR 0.3>0[0.1]
F9 MCO-SAN DEC 1.0>0.5[1.0] JAN 1.0>0.4[1.0] FEB 1.0>0.7[1.0]
F9 MSY-SAT JAN 0.4>0.1[0.6] FEB 0.4>0.2[0.6]
F9 ONT-SAT JAN 0.3>0.0[0.6]
*F9 PIT-SAN JAN 0.3>0.0[0] FEB 0.3>0[0] MAR 0.3>0[0] APR 0.3>0[0]
*F9 RDU-SAT JAN 0.5>0.1[0] FEB 0.4>0[0] MAR 0.4>0[0] APR 0.4>0[0.2]
F9 SAN-SAT JAN 0.4>0.1[0.6] FEB 0.4>0.2[0.6]

Temporary seasonal suspension. Appears they also did it last year, so nobody freak out plz.
FI KEF-MSP JAN 0.5>0.1[0.2] FEB 0.6>0[0] MAR 0.7>0.5[0.5]

IB MAD-SFO APR 0>0.3[0.1]

KS AKN-ANC FEB 1.0>1.9[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.9[2] JUN 2>5[5] JUL 2>6[8]
KS AKN-DLG FEB 1.0>0.1[1.0] MAR 1.0>0.1[0]
KS ANC-CDB MAR 0.7>0.4[0.7] APR 0.9>0.4[0.8] MAY 0.9>0.4[0.9] JUN 0.8>0.4[1.1] JUL 0.9>0.4[0.7]
KS ANC-DLG APR 3>2[3] MAY 3>2[3] JUN 3>2[3] JUL 3>2[3]
KS ANC-SDP MAR 0.7>0.4[0.7] APR 0.9>0.4[0.8] MAY 0.9>0.4[0.9] JUN 0.8>0.4[0.9] JUL 0.9>0.4[0.7]
KS CDB-SDP MAR 0.1>0.4[0.1] APR 0>0.4[0] MAY 0>0.4[0] JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0.2]

*LF BKW-CLT DEC 0>1.4[0] JAN 0>1.7[0] FEB 0>1.7[0] MAR 0>1.7[0]
*LF BKW-PKB DEC 0>1.4[0] JAN 0>1.7[0] FEB 0>1.7[0] MAR 0>1.7[0]

The ME3 used to fly everything daily. I think that's slowly coming to an end.
QR DOH-MIA APR 1.0>0.7[1.0] MAY 1.0>0.7[1.0] JUN 1.0>0.7[1.0] JUL 1.0>0.7[1.0]

TJ ACK-HPN MAY 0>1.7[1.8] JUN 0>1.6[1.9] JUL 0>4[5]
TJ ACK-TEB APR 0>0.3[0.4] MAY 0>1.5[1.7] JUN 0>1.5[1.8] JUL 0>4[5]
TJ HPN-MVY JUN 0>1.1[1.2] JUL 0>1.8[2]
TJ MVY-TEB JUL 0>1.3[1.6]

UA ABE-ORD MAR 3>2[2.0]
UA ABQ-ORD MAR 1.8>1.1[1.0]
UA AUS-EWR MAR 3>4[4]
UA AVP-ORD MAR 3>1.9[1.0]
UA BFL-SFO MAR 1.6>1.0[1.0]
UA BNA-EWR MAR 7>5[4]
UA BTV-ORD MAR 3>2[2]
UA BUF-ORD MAR 5>3[3]
UA CAE-ORD MAR 2>3[2]
UA CMH-EWR MAR 7>6[5]
UA CWA-ORD MAR 3>1.9[2]
UA DAY-EWR JAN 1.2>1.9[1.9] FEB 1.0>1.4[1.9]
This was announced a few weeks ago
*UA DEN-FAI JUN 0>0.5[0] JUL 0>0.6[0]
UA DSM-IAH MAR 2>3[2]
UA EWR-EYW MAR 2>3[2]
UA EWR-GRR MAR 4>2[1.9]
UA EWR-MKE MAR 4>2[3]
UA EWR-ORF MAR 6>4[4]
UA EWR-PWM MAR 5>3[4]
UA EWR-RSW MAR 4>6[5]
UA EWR-SLC MAR 1.2>2.0[1.0]
UA EWR-SRQ MAR 2>3[1.0]
UA EWR-YHZ MAR 3>2[2]
UA EWR-YQB MAR 2>3[2]
Don't think this route has ever been flown before
**UA FAI-SFO JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0]
UA GRR-IAH MAR 1.2>1.7[1.0]
UA IAD-LAX MAR 8>7[6]
UA IAD-MCI MAR 3>2[1.8]
UA IAD-MDT JAN 3>1.9[4]
UA IAD-MSY MAR 2>3[3]
UA IAD-PVD MAR 4>3[2]
UA IAD-PWM MAR 4>2[1.0]
UA IAD-ROA MAR 3>2[1.9]
UA IAD-SFO MAR 8>7[7]
UA IAD-TYS MAR 4>3[3]
UA IAH-LAS MAR 7>6[6]
UA IAH-LAX MAR 11>10[10]
UA IAH-LBB MAR 3>4[3]
UA IAH-MLU MAR 3>1.9[2.0]
UA IAH-ORF MAR 1.2>1.9[1.0]
UA IAH-PDX MAR 3>2[2.0]
UA IAH-PSP MAR 2>3[2]
UA IAH-RIC MAR 1.8>1.0[1.0]
UA IAH-RNO MAR 0.5>1.0[1.0]
UA IAH-RSW MAR 2>3[2]
UA IAH-SEA MAR 5>4[4]
UA IAH-TUS MAR 3>4[3]
UA IAH-VPS MAR 2>3[3]
UA ILM-ORD MAR 1.8>1.0[0]
UA LAX-ORD MAR 11>9[9]
UA LAX-SBA MAR 4>3[4]
UA MCI-SFO MAR 3>2[3]
UA MCO-ORD MAR 6>8[8]
UA MSY-SFO MAR 1.0>1.7[1.8]
UA OKC-ORD MAR 4>3[2]
UA ORD-PNS MAR 1.2>2.0[1.7]
UA ORD-PSP MAR 1.2>2.0[1.0]
UA ORD-PWM MAR 3>2[1.7]
UA ORD-RSW MAR 2>4[4]
UA ORD-SEA MAR 4>3[3]
UA ORD-SFO MAR 13>10[9]
UA ORD-SGF MAR 3>4[3]
UA ORD-SRQ MAR 1.3>2[2]
UA ORD-TPA MAR 3>4[4]
UA ORD-TVC APR 3>1.9[3] MAY 3>2.0[3] JUN 3>1.9[5] JUL 3>1.9[5]
UA ORD-YVR MAR 1.8>1.0[1.7]
UA ORD-YYZ MAR 6>5[5]
UA PDX-SFO MAR 8>7[7]
UA RDU-SFO MAR 1.2>1.9[1.9]
UA SEA-SFO MAR 9>8[8]
UA SFO-TUS MAR 2>4[4] APR 2>4[4] MAY 2>3[4]

UP BIM-MIA NOV 0.6>0.2[0] DEC 0.6>0[0] APR 0.3>0[0] MAY 0.6>0[0.5] JUN 0.6>0[0.6] JUL 0.5>0[0.5]

*VVC MIA-SMR DEC 0>0.2[0] JAN 0>0.4[0] FEB 0>0.3[0] MAR 0>0.3[0] APR 0>0.4[0] MAY 0>0.4[0] JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0]

WN AUS-SJC JAN 1.9>2[1.9] FEB 1.8>2[1.8]
WN CHS-MDW JAN 1.8>1.3[1.0]
WN LAS-LGB MAR 0.3>3[0.6]
WN LGB-SMF MAR 2>4[2]
WN MDW-PVD JAN 2>1.5[2]
WN RNO-SAN JAN 2>3[2] FEB 2>3[2]
WN SJU-TPA JAN 0.6>1.0[0.7]

I don't know what to make of XE. This stuff is truly new?
XE BUR-LAS DEC 0>5[3] JAN 0>5[3]
XE BUR-OAK DEC 0>4[0] JAN 0>4[3]
*XE LAS-OAK NOV 0.7>1.3[0] DEC 0>2[0] JAN 0>3[0]
*XE LAS-SNA DEC 0>3[0] JAN 0>3[0]
*XE MMH-SNA DEC 0>0.3[0] JAN 0>0.5[0]
XE OAK-RNO NOV 0.8>0[0]
*XE OAK-SNA DEC 0>0.8[0] JAN 0>0.9[0]

enilria wrote:

But net zero...
*AC RDU-YUL JUN 0>0.9[0] JUL 0>1.0[0]
AC RDU-YYZ MAY 4>3[4] JUN 4>3[4] JUL 4>3[4]

Hardly net zero...RDU-YYZ goes from 4 CRJs to 3 E175s so capacity increases 18%. With the new RDU-YUL frequency overall AC capacity at RDU increases 44% year over year...

TWAGuy wrote:

enilria wrote:

But net zero...
*AC RDU-YUL JUN 0>0.9[0] JUL 0>1.0[0]
AC RDU-YYZ MAY 4>3[4] JUN 4>3[4] JUL 4>3[4]

Hardly net zero...RDU-YYZ goes from 4 CRJs to 3 E175s so capacity increases 18%. With the new RDU-YUL frequency overall AC capacity at RDU increases 44% year over year...

On departures it is net zero. This report does not document changes in seats.

So great full for your hard work Enirlia,this week I can enjoy reading it with coffee lol
What's so surprising regarding Delta going 2x on IAD-SEA?
I'm surprised that AM is stopping MEX-IAD....thought they would keep it even if just for political ties

enilria wrote:

TWAGuy wrote:

enilria wrote:

But net zero...
*AC RDU-YUL JUN 0>0.9[0] JUL 0>1.0[0]
AC RDU-YYZ MAY 4>3[4] JUN 4>3[4] JUL 4>3[4]

Hardly net zero...RDU-YYZ goes from 4 CRJs to 3 E175s so capacity increases 18%. With the new RDU-YUL frequency overall AC capacity at RDU increases 44% year over year...

On departures it is net zero. This report does not document changes in seats.

Sorry, couldn't resist

XE = JetSuite X

Icelandair does pull back at MSP, as noted, the difference this year will be a 737 MAX 8 instead of the 752.

TropicalSky wrote:

So great full for your hard work Enirlia,this week I can enjoy reading it with coffee lol
What's so surprising regarding Delta going 2x on IAD-SEA?
I'm surprised that AM is stopping MEX-IAD....thought they would keep it even if just for political ties

IAD transcon is notoriously difficult. For example, B6 just left IAD completely. Also, IAD is a pretty weak market for DL and they are not #1 at DCA either. Plus, SEA while a hub is not a mega-hub and they are not even #1 in the market. PLUS, the Asia connects are circuitous over SEA. So, couple that all together and I find it surprising.

lavalampluva wrote:

XE = JetSuite X

Yeah, but I don't follow them. Those routes that appear to be new I feel like I saw them add before. Have they not a been flown before?

SteveXC500 wrote:

Icelandair does pull back at MSP, as noted, the difference this year will be a 737 MAX 8 instead of the 752.

With EI entering the market it is probably healthier for them to be flying the MAX than the 757.

Two biased observations b/c they affect my travels:

Looks like AA is pulling out of Vail entirely during the summer. That sucks - they had been running at least once a day thru DFW for the past decade or more. Now it’s UAX via DEN or drive.

Also, continued expansion for destinations out of FAI on UA. But didn’t they announce DEN was going to be daily? Maybe I misread that - but I guess they’ve decided to split service and alternate between DEN/SFO with a daily to ORD

Trying to think back, when did VX/AS start PHXSFO?

AS SEA-STL MAR 1.0>1.4[1.7] APR 1.0>2[2] MAY 1.0>2[1.9] JUN 1.6>2[1.7]
Glad to see competition from WN has not hurt this route.

joeblow10 wrote:

Two biased observations b/c they affect my travels:

Looks like AA is pulling out of Vail entirely during the summer. That sucks - they had been running at least once a day thru DFW for the past decade or more. Now it’s UAX via DEN or drive.

Also, continued expansion for destinations out of FAI on UA. But didn’t they announce DEN was going to be daily? Maybe I misread that - but I guess they’ve decided to split service and alternate between DEN/SFO with a daily to ORD

Wow, who saw SFO-FAI coming? I assume it would be a seasonal add, in addition to DEN.

Perhaps DL IAD-SEA is in anticipation of Amazon opening a second hq in DC?

flyboy7974 wrote:

Trying to think back, when did VX/AS start PHXSFO?

I think they flew it last year for spring training.

MIflyer12 wrote:

There's not a lot of non-stop capacity on SEA-WAS (looking at 6/3/19):

3x UA SEA-IAD
1x AS SEA-BWI
1x AS SEA-IAD
2x AS SEA-DCA
1x DL SEA-IAD

In addition to UA, AS, and DL, WN also has seasonal SEA-BWI nonstop service.

MIflyer12 wrote:

There's not a lot of non-stop capacity on SEA-WAS (looking at 6/3/19):

3x UA SEA-IAD
1x AS SEA-BWI
1x AS SEA-IAD
2x AS SEA-DCA
1x DL SEA-IAD

Maybe there doesn't need to be.

AS doesn't have redeyes in the market - odd, given other eastern markets for AS. DL's sole flight is timed to compete with a UA redeye A320. Maybe the add is a daytime flight?

The add is a daytime flight. It's scheduled as follows:
Leave SEA 9:45 am, arrive IAD 5:45 pm
Leave IAD 6:45 pm, arrive SEA 9:27 pm

And not to nitpick or anything, but NK and WN also seasonally serve SEA-BWI, with WN doing a daytime flight and NK doing a redeye.

MIflyer12 wrote:

There's not a lot of non-stop capacity on SEA-WAS (looking at 6/3/19):

3x UA SEA-IAD
1x AS SEA-BWI
1x AS SEA-IAD
2x AS SEA-DCA
1x DL SEA-IAD

Maybe there doesn't need to be.

AS doesn't have redeyes in the market - odd, given other eastern markets for AS. DL's sole flight is timed to compete with a UA redeye A320. Maybe the add is a daytime flight?

With the WN/NK seasonal adds mentioned, ~10x daily is not a lot of capacity on SEA-WAS?

Thanks Enilria!

MIflyer12 wrote:

DL's sole flight is timed to compete with a UA redeye A320. Maybe the add is a daytime flight?

Yup, daytime flight in both directions.

jb1087xna wrote:

Thanks Enilria!

MIflyer12 wrote:

DL's sole flight is timed to compete with a UA redeye A320. Maybe the add is a daytime flight?

Yup, daytime flight in both directions.

MIflyer12 wrote:

There's not a lot of non-stop capacity on SEA-WAS (looking at 6/3/19):

3x UA SEA-IAD
1x AS SEA-BWI
1x AS SEA-IAD
2x AS SEA-DCA
1x DL SEA-IAD

Maybe there doesn't need to be.

AS doesn't have redeyes in the market - odd, given other eastern markets for AS. DL's sole flight is timed to compete with a UA redeye A320. Maybe the add is a daytime flight?

I haven't run the numbers, but I wouldn't be surprised if there's more transcon service from BWI than IAD if you remove UA from IAD. I know on the surface that seems like an unfair comparison, but IAD is considered the primary transcon airport for WAS in most people's minds so superficially you would think it would be important for all the large airlines to play in the IAD market transcons, but it just hasn't gone that way. JFK-transcon is massively more competitive. DCA is a factor, of course, since LGA doesn't have long-haul.

joeblow10 wrote:

Two biased observations b/c they affect my travels:

Looks like AA is pulling out of Vail entirely during the summer. That sucks - they had been running at least once a day thru DFW for the past decade or more. Now it’s UAX via DEN or drive.

The AA EGE cuts are only April and May. It's a still bookable nonstop in summer.

The ME3 used to fly everything daily. I think that's slowly coming to an end.
QR DOH-MIA APR 1.0>0.7[1.0] MAY 1.0>0.7[1.0] JUN 1.0>0.7[1.0] JUL 1.0>0.7[1.0]

With consistent sub $700 round trip Y fares to the Indian subcontinent from Miami they are clearly struggling with yields. Probably and attempt to fix that.

enilria wrote:

I haven't run the numbers, but I wouldn't be surprised if there's more transcon service from BWI than IAD if you remove UA from IAD. I know on the surface that seems like an unfair comparison, but IAD is considered the primary transcon airport for WAS in most people's minds so superficially you would think it would be important for all the large airlines to play in the IAD market transcons, but it just hasn't gone that way. JFK-transcon is massively more competitive. DCA is a factor, of course, since LGA doesn't have long-haul.

That is indeed as you noted a totally unfair comparison. The reason your comparison doesn't work is that UA having such a large presence in IAD transcon likely discourages others from flying the routes, for instance it's probably why AS doesn't fly SAN-IAD.

I ran this against the current July 2019 schedule (with July 2018 for WN/NK) for routes over 2,200mi (basically to exclude LAS).
BWI…WN…12
BWI…AS…5
BWI…NK…4
BWI…UA…3

DCA…AS…5
DCA…AA…2
DCA…UA…1
DCA…DL…1

IAD…UA…27
IAD…AS…6
IAD…AA…2
IAD…DL…2

WOW GRR has really been hitting it out of the park lately first AA and now UA adds more to both EWR and IAH.

F9 is notorious for abandoning routes. Many of them probably shouldn't have been started. It's not helping then win over pax who are already leery of using them.

yellowtail wrote:

The ME3 used to fly everything daily. I think that's slowly coming to an end.
QR DOH-MIA APR 1.0>0.7[1.0] MAY 1.0>0.7[1.0] JUN 1.0>0.7[1.0] JUL 1.0>0.7[1.0]

With consistent sub $700 round trip Y fares to the Indian subcontinent from Miami they are clearly struggling with yields. Probably and attempt to fix that.

But QR has the benefit of AA feed just like at PHL and they still can't make a go of it.

PlanesNTrains wrote:

Perhaps DL IAD-SEA is in anticipation of Amazon opening a second hq in DC?

You've heard the same rumors I have then.

klm617 wrote:

But QR has the benefit of AA feed just like at PHL and they still can't make a go of it.

What meaningful feed is there beyond MIA that wouldn't be better connected over PHL?

Just look at this, even TPA is better over PHL than MIA.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=TPA-DOH,+T ... PA-PHL-DOH

Thanks for your hard work, Enilria. Look forward to this every Sunday.

enilria wrote:

*F9 CVG-SAT JAN 0.5>0.1[0] FEB 0.4>0[0] MAR 0.4>0[0] APR 0.4>0[0.3]

In addition to the discontinuation of F9 CVG-SAT nonstop service, I am also not currently seeing any F9 nonstops to ATL, AUS, DFW, JAX, LAX, MSP, LGA, PHL, RDU, and SJC out of CVG in April 2019, even though F9 has already extended its flight schedule through April 29, 2019.

There is likely going to be more demand for WN service out of CVG in Summer 2019 than was the case in the past with F9 significantly cutting back at CVG in 2019, and I think that WN will probably be announcing a few more nonstop routes out of CVG in the 11/15/18 schedule extension with demand for WN service out of CVG expected to be greater than it was in the past.

WN AUS-SJC JAN 1.9>2[1.9] FEB 1.8>2[1.8]
WN CHS-MDW JAN 1.8>1.3[1.0]
WN LAS-LGB MAR 0.3>3[0.6]
WN LGB-SMF MAR 2>4[2]
WN MDW-PVD JAN 2>1.5[2]
WN RNO-SAN JAN 2>3[2] FEB 2>3[2]
WN SJU-TPA JAN 0.6>1.0[0.7]

This is yet another bunch of adds to skeds that have already been announced/released. Seems to be a recent trend from WN.

Just another great appreciation for the great OAG threads! These sorts of unexpected sked changes from WN would be, IMO, almost impossible to find otherwise unless they were just stumbled upon.

Of course the suspicious side of me thinks that WN must be expecting that someone **cough cough - AS?** is getting ready to announce, for example, SAN-RNO service...

bb

pmanni1 wrote:

AS SEA-STL MAR 1.0>1.4[1.7] APR 1.0>2[2] MAY 1.0>2[1.9] JUN 1.6>2[1.7]
Glad to see competition from WN has not hurt this route.

I have been on this flight when it is probably 100+ Boeing employees. Wouldn’t be surprised if Boeing travel fills both of these flights 50%+ most days minus weekends.

Rdh3e wrote:

klm617 wrote:

But QR has the benefit of AA feed just like at PHL and they still can't make a go of it.

What meaningful feed is there beyond MIA that wouldn't be better connected over PHL?

Just look at this, even TPA is better over PHL than MIA.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=TPA-DOH,+T ... PA-PHL-DOH

Really??? You ask what points can be connected over MIA that cannot be connected over PHL? Even the duplicate caribbean/latin destinations from PHL misconnect from DOH.

No one cares if PHL is 150 miles less than MIA to DOH from TPA. No one books an 8000 mile flight based on 150 miles less circuity. Using that logic all YYZ-SYD traffic should flow over LAX and none over YVR.

MIA gives QR access to latin america that PHL cannot.

Oh my, a bunch of out-of-the-blue Frontier drops! Such an unexpected shock!

Exactly the reason I keep track of all new F9 service in pencil with a big eraser... But that's ok, that just means soon there'll be another round of strange and wonderful adds to the F9 route map that will again make people jump up and down with excitement. (Until those too are cancelled.) Quite an operation, F9.

New slogan? "Frontier -- Fly With Us Now, But Don't Plan Ahead!"

bb

klm617 wrote:

WOW GRR has really been hitting it out of the park lately first AA and now UA adds more to both EWR and IAH.

UA is down 2 to GRR from EWR from 4 to 2...but are the 2 now mainline?

Rdh3e wrote:

klm617 wrote:

But QR has the benefit of AA feed just like at PHL and they still can't make a go of it.

What meaningful feed is there beyond MIA that wouldn't be better connected over PHL?

Just look at this, even TPA is better over PHL than MIA.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=TPA-DOH,+T ... PA-PHL-DOH

All of South America, The Caribbean and Mexico.

klm617 wrote:

Rdh3e wrote:

klm617 wrote:

But QR has the benefit of AA feed just like at PHL and they still can't make a go of it.

What meaningful feed is there beyond MIA that wouldn't be better connected over PHL?

Just look at this, even TPA is better over PHL than MIA.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=TPA-DOH,+T ... PA-PHL-DOH

All of South America, The Caribbean and Mexico.

but double customs/immigration

SANFan wrote:

Oh my, a bunch of out-of-the-blue Frontier drops! Such an unexpected shock!

Exactly the reason I keep track of all new F9 service in pencil with a big eraser... But that's ok, that just means soon there'll be another round of strange and wonderful adds to the F9 route map that will again make people jump up and down with excitement. (Until those too are cancelled.) Quite an operation, F9.

New slogan? "Frontier -- Fly With Us Now, But Don't Plan Ahead!"

bb

I can't imagine how much time/resource they spend setting up stations and routes, then cutting them and/or pulling out?!?!?! Securing space, securing and signing contracts with FBOs, signage/branding, securing crew hotel agreements, etc, etc, etc.

Bobloblaw wrote:

Rdh3e wrote:

klm617 wrote:

But QR has the benefit of AA feed just like at PHL and they still can't make a go of it.

What meaningful feed is there beyond MIA that wouldn't be better connected over PHL?

Just look at this, even TPA is better over PHL than MIA.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=TPA-DOH,+T ... PA-PHL-DOH

Really??? You ask what points can be connected over MIA that cannot be connected over PHL? Even the duplicate caribbean/latin destinations from PHL misconnect from DOH.

No one cares if PHL is 150 miles less than MIA to DOH from TPA. No one books an 8000 mile flight based on 150 miles less circuity. Using that logic all YYZ-SYD traffic should flow over LAX and none over YVR.

MIA gives QR access to latin america that PHL cannot.

And AA just said they had a tough quarter for Latin America traffic out of MIA. So it wouldn't be surprising if QR also got pinched a bit if they are banking on Latin America-MIA-DOH-beyond traffic.

Bobloblaw wrote:

klm617 wrote:

WOW GRR has really been hitting it out of the park lately first AA and now UA adds more to both EWR and IAH.

UA is down 2 to GRR from EWR from 4 to 2...but are the 2 now mainline?

Yes you're right I was looking at the 2 vs 1.9 last year IDK how that 4 got in there as it is only operating 2 nonstop now.

klm617 wrote:

Rdh3e wrote:

klm617 wrote:

But QR has the benefit of AA feed just like at PHL and they still can't make a go of it.

What meaningful feed is there beyond MIA that wouldn't be better connected over PHL?

Just look at this, even TPA is better over PHL than MIA.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=TPA-DOH,+T ... PA-PHL-DOH

All of South America, The Caribbean and Mexico.

Alas, it does not seem to be enough

F9 never fails when it comes to huge route drops and add ons. You rarely hear Spirit drop routes left and right but I guess Frontier knows what they are doing. As for QR I’m surprised but the frequency reduction to MIA. I wonder if it’s signs to come for other routes minus JFK

klm617 wrote:

yellowtail wrote:

The ME3 used to fly everything daily. I think that's slowly coming to an end.
QR DOH-MIA APR 1.0>0.7[1.0] MAY 1.0>0.7[1.0] JUN 1.0>0.7[1.0] JUL 1.0>0.7[1.0]

With consistent sub $700 round trip Y fares to the Indian subcontinent from Miami they are clearly struggling with yields. Probably and attempt to fix that.

But QR has the benefit of AA feed just like at PHL and they still can't make a go of it.

Nope. QR and AA ended their partnership, despite both being in OW.

Miami has a lot of capacity to the region - Qatar, Emirates, Turkish, El Al, and, starting in April, Royal Air Maroc, and it all came quickly. No doubt fares are hurting.

yellowtail wrote:

klm617 wrote:

Rdh3e wrote:

What meaningful feed is there beyond MIA that wouldn't be better connected over PHL?

Just look at this, even TPA is better over PHL than MIA.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=TPA-DOH,+T ... PA-PHL-DOH

All of South America, The Caribbean and Mexico.

Alas, it does not seem to be enough

Which is why I said "meaningful". Just because STT now connects TO DOH doesn't mean anyone would actually use it. The MIA link is largely superfluous for connectivity so unless it survives in MIA-DOH local plus MIA-DOH-India it's basically worthless. That is why it's being day of weeked, it doesn't have the utility it needs.

Did a good amount of traffic connect through MIA on AA with the DOH-MIA flights? People flying SCL-MIA-DOH for example.

MAH4546 wrote:

klm617 wrote:

yellowtail wrote:

The ME3 used to fly everything daily. I think that's slowly coming to an end.
QR DOH-MIA APR 1.0>0.7[1.0] MAY 1.0>0.7[1.0] JUN 1.0>0.7[1.0] JUL 1.0>0.7[1.0]

With consistent sub $700 round trip Y fares to the Indian subcontinent from Miami they are clearly struggling with yields. Probably and attempt to fix that.

But QR has the benefit of AA feed just like at PHL and they still can't make a go of it.

Nope. QR and AA ended their partnership, despite both being in OW.

Miami has a lot of capacity to the region - Qatar, Emirates, Turkish, El Al, and, starting in April, Royal Air Maroc, and it all came quickly. No doubt fares are hurting.

Excellent point about the other other airlines you mentioned. They can only lower the fares but so much

B752OS wrote:

Did a good amount of traffic connect through MIA on AA with the DOH-MIA flights? People flying SCL-MIA-DOH for example.

There's certainly some, but the route survives on MIA local traffic now as AA and QR no longer partner.

enilria wrote:

I haven't run the numbers, but I wouldn't be surprised if there's more transcon service from BWI than IAD if you remove UA from IAD. I know on the surface that seems like an unfair comparison, but IAD is considered the primary transcon airport for WAS in most people's minds so superficially you would think it would be important for all the large airlines to play in the IAD market transcons, but it just hasn't gone that way. JFK-transcon is massively more competitive. DCA is a factor, of course, since LGA doesn't have long-haul.

I will say that as far as SAN is concerned, we have a lot more nonstop capacity to BWI than IAD: in peak season, WN, AS & NK operate ~5 dailies to BWI, whereas only UA flies to IAD, 3x daily. Other cx, WN the most recent, have attempted IAD service but quickly dropped it. (And WN dropping SAN routes is rare.)

It has to be noted that SAN is the largest major western market (outside the perimeter) without a nonstop to DCA and who knows if or when that problem will be resolved...

I can only conclude that flyers between SAN and DC much prefer Baltimore -- so long as our choice remains either BWI or IAD. Not a huge surprise.

bb

Thanks again enilria

enilria wrote:

TropicalSky wrote:

So great full for your hard work Enirlia,this week I can enjoy reading it with coffee lol
What's so surprising regarding Delta going 2x on IAD-SEA?
I'm surprised that AM is stopping MEX-IAD....thought they would keep it even if just for political ties

IAD transcon is notoriously difficult. For example, B6 just left IAD completely. Also, IAD is a pretty weak market for DL and they are not #1 at DCA either. Plus, SEA while a hub is not a mega-hub and they are not even #1 in the market. PLUS, the Asia connects are circuitous over SEA. So, couple that all together and I find it surprising.

I think this is just them going to twice daily for the peak summer season. They do add capacity in the summer time. This is just to improve their schedule on this route, I would imagine. They are certainly willing to loose plenty of money on new routes out of SEA.

lavalampluva wrote:

XE = JetSuite X

Yeah, but I don't follow them. Those routes that appear to be new I feel like I saw them add before. Have they not a been flown before?

yes, I think this was all announced about 4 weeks ago. Huge surge in flights to LAS. Huge surge out of SNA. It seems like they are doing the best out of those LA basin to LAS routes. OAK is getting quite a few adds too. MMH is restarting from both BUR and SNA.

http://aviationtribune.com/airlines/nor ... d-flights/

On some day, they run 7 flights a day from BUR to LAS.

admanager wrote:

PlanesNTrains wrote:

Perhaps DL IAD-SEA is in anticipation of Amazon opening a second hq in DC?

You've heard the same rumors I have then.

The opening of HQ2 is a long way off. My guess is there's plenty of demand from the significant Boeing and Amazon presence in the Dulles Tech Corridor.

Edit: Forgot to add my thanks to enilria for putting this together week in and week out. One of the best reads on A.net these days. Thanks again!