I think the company that hurts the most with MINT to JFK and BOS is AS since they can only compete on price. They've tried to use the "hometown airline" moniker to garner goodwill, but the financials don't support that that is working.
DL is still able to bring $1,500+ fares OW with Delta One to JFK and there was a rumor that D1 was coming to BOS flights, but it is looking like Q3 2019 at the earliest.
The yields are down, but most everyone flying into SEA is making at least a buck.
I picked a day a little over a month on JFK-SEAhttps://www.google.com/flights#flt=JFK. ... 1;t:f;tt:o
pretty tough market. There is at least one D1 flight there that's going for $549 O/W and nothing over $1000.
Just to give everything a little context, I put the numbers from Q2 here for several transcon routes out of SEA. Normally for legacies, a good non-premium transcon route will get over $300 Avg fare with 85+% LF. A good premium transcon route will get over $350 Avg fare with 85+% LF.
CityPair Dist CarrierBoard AvgNSFare% NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM
SEAJFK 2422 AA 030578 243.38 95.99% 160.1 86.84% 211.35 0.0873
SEAJFK 2422 AS 034621 239.30 95.19% 176.2 92.68% 221.78 0.0916
SEAJFK 2422 B6 041671 251.08 99.53% 158.1 89.63% 225.03 0.0929
SEAJFK 2422 DL 119441 303.02 97.65% 180.7 90.44% 274.04 0.1131
SEABOS 2496 AS 085232 254.00 98.79% 175.6 91.39% 232.13 0.0930
SEABOS 2496 B6 059459 242.51 99.41% 159.0 83.85% 203.34 0.0815
SEABOS 2496 DL 050444 247.07 92.02% 161.7 88.86% 219.55 0.0880
SEADCA 2329 AS 053500 391.40 96.27% 159.0 93.73% 366.85 0.1575
SEAIAD 2306 AS 028604 262.25 93.98% 173.6 90.52% 237.38 0.1029
SEAIAD 2306 DL 006020 273.91 87.99% 160.0 81.79% 224.04 0.0972
SEAIAD 2306 UA 081564 306.26 95.60% 165.6 93.84% 287.39 0.1246
SEAATL 2182 AS 055330 277.69 97.88% 177.1 86.33% 239.72 0.1099
SEAATL 2182 DL 211418 372.68 92.01% 193.1 91.08% 339.42 0.1556
Keep in mind a year ago on JFK-SEA, AS had $261 Avg fare with 91% LF and DL had $316 Avg fare with 93% LF. So both have experienced a drop since then. And remember, DL actually converted several flights to D1 service, so the drop in yield is really bad. The biggest drop is by AA, who I think won't be around in a year.
BOS-SEA is a huge bloodbath. DL won't put D1 on here, because the market simply can't support it. A year agom both DL and AS had average fare that ws close to $300 and now both are around $250.
On the subject, of IAD-SEA, I actually don't think the numbers are bad. The LF is a little lower for DL, but the fares are pretty good for a new route that's a red-eye. If they add a day-time flight, I would imagine yields will be acceptable. At least much better than BOS-SEA.
In general for AS, I think the vast majority of SEA transcon routes a profitable. They have pretty strong hold of SEA point of sale still.
I don't doubt it's for peak, but they are under a lot of capacity pressure from Wall Street and that's a lot of ASMs in what on paper is a sketchy ( one where they are not in a dominant position on either end) market.
Now I've changed my tune a little bit after seeing their yields on IAD-SEA. They have some routes that they do a lot worse where they added capacity to.
They had a net loss of $18 million for Q2 2018, profit of $20 million in Q1 2018, a loss of $1.8 Billion for all of 2017, a $373 million loss for all of 2016. They've cut $300 million in costs, mostly related to outsourcing almost everything. I'm surprised they haven't tried to outsource flight attendants and pilots. They're not making any money. They're opening routes and cutting them because they're losing money on them. Airlines don't cut profitable routes unless they're intent on going out of business.
To be clear, Frontier lost nearly $2 BILLION in 2017?
According to this:http://investor.frontier.com/news-relea ... ull-year-0
They blamed it on a one time tax benefit and goodwill, but yes.
That's complete craziness. I don't see how they can last much longer with this kind of financial performance.