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OA940
Posts: 1991
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:07 pm

LAXLHR wrote:
I REFUSE to get on Lion Air, with their 18 year old pilots. These young Asian pilots fly planes like they are racing cars...and Lion Air is full of high schoolers.. Its insaaaaane what is happening over at that airline. I warn everyone to steer clear of them.

I flew out of CGK earlier this year and you are pretty much over the water within a couple of minutes.

VERY VERY SAD!!! We can all disagree about many things on this site, but we all share one thing in common and thats our absolute love of commercial aviation. The joy the wonder of it all.... We all get on these planes all over the world, some of us like cabs...and well its just sad.



Easyjet and Wizzair have 18 year old pilots and they are perfectly safe...

People who are trying to pin it on the manufacturer are naive to say the least. Look into Lion's safety record. Add in the fact that this is a new type, aka they have had little time to familiarize themselves with how it works maintenance-wise. And there was a problem the night before. This is a recipe for disaster.
A350/CSeries = bae
 
osiris30
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:15 pm

Does anyone have access to the maintenance manuals for this type who can tell us what is involved in the two procedures documents in the maintenance log. The second is a bit tough to make out the hand writing but appears to deal with the elevators. The first clearly says flush pitot tubes.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
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Aesma
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:17 pm

OA940 wrote:
LAXLHR wrote:
I REFUSE to get on Lion Air, with their 18 year old pilots. These young Asian pilots fly planes like they are racing cars...and Lion Air is full of high schoolers.. Its insaaaaane what is happening over at that airline. I warn everyone to steer clear of them.

I flew out of CGK earlier this year and you are pretty much over the water within a couple of minutes.

VERY VERY SAD!!! We can all disagree about many things on this site, but we all share one thing in common and thats our absolute love of commercial aviation. The joy the wonder of it all.... We all get on these planes all over the world, some of us like cabs...and well its just sad.



Easyjet and Wizzair have 18 year old pilots and they are perfectly safe...

People who are trying to pin it on the manufacturer are naive to say the least. Look into Lion's safety record. Add in the fact that this is a new type, aka they have had little time to familiarize themselves with how it works maintenance-wise. And there was a problem the night before. This is a recipe for disaster.


Well if Boeing delivers airplanes without making sure the client knows how to maintain them, that might look bad for them. Especially as they're focussing their efforts in earning money through packaging maintenance with the sale of the aircraft.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Starlionblue
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:20 pm

Aesma wrote:
I'm looking at 737's ADs but wow, there are a lot of them !

This one for example, that is about the 737-700 not the Max, but a good example of something that could cause an accident like this one : http://rgl.faa.gov/Regulatory_and_Guida ... -18-16.pdf


Have you compared to other types? ADs are a commonplace occurrence.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
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Aesma
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:22 pm

That wasn't a dig at the aircraft, I was just saying it could be long to sift through all of them. Most are not about the Max but you can't filter the older types out.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
CRJ200flyer
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:31 pm

VSMUT wrote:
Appie88 wrote:
DLASFlyer wrote:
If the final vertical speed was in fact -30,000 ft/min, will the recorders even be salvageable?


Is -30.000 ft/min even possible? Maybe someone knows or can calculate?
Nose down, probably.. But when a plane stalls or something what minus vertical speed can it reach?


30.000 ft/min is only about 300 knots or so. A 737 climbs at about 280 knots. You can stall at all speeds and attitudes.


That would be a 300 knot vertical descent rate - an incredible rate that would be unsurvivable. A normal descent rate for an airliner is 500 up to around 2500 feet per minute. On final approach your descent rate is less than 1000 feet per minute, and on landing much less than that for a smooth touchdown.

For comparison, AF447 hit the ocean at 108 knots vertical speed or roughly 10,912 feet per minute. That aircraft was in a stall with only 107 knots of forward speed. Obviously that high descent rate destroyed the entire aircraft.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:38 pm

Aesma wrote:
...
Well if Boeing delivers airplanes without making sure the client knows how to maintain them, that might look bad for them. .


If they don't know how to maintain just call Boeing's 800 number. They will be happy to assist. A 787 certified MX vendor at CDG didn't know to update the firmware on a 787. Called Boeing and got help.
All posts are just opinions.
 
DLASFlyer
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:38 pm

How much scheduled maintenance work would have been performed by Lion Air in the first three months? Obviously bad maintenance or pilot error come to mind in this part of the world but some sort of Boeing or CFM issue crosses my mind.
Last edited by DLASFlyer on Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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PW100
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:38 pm

Aesma wrote:
That wasn't a dig at the aircraft, I was just saying it could be long to sift through all of them. Most are not about the Max but you can't filter the older types out.

You only have to consider ADs that came out after the initial Type Certificate date. All older ADs are satisfied with by design; otherwise the Type Certificate will not be granted/issued.
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
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DL757NYC
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:40 pm

flight152 wrote:
It’s absolutely insane how bad the safety record is for this airline. Blows my mind anyone would step on one of their aircraft.



How unsafe can a plane that is 2 months old be. This sounds like a problem with the airplane. They should have been flying on auto pilot 8 minutes into the flight. They also requested a return to the airport. If this is a flaw with the aircraft Boeing better lube up and be prepared to be balls deep in lawsuits and canceled orders.
 
planecane
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:53 pm

DL757NYC wrote:
flight152 wrote:
It’s absolutely insane how bad the safety record is for this airline. Blows my mind anyone would step on one of their aircraft.



How unsafe can a plane that is 2 months old be. This sounds like a problem with the airplane. They should have been flying on auto pilot 8 minutes into the flight. They also requested a return to the airport. If this is a flaw with the aircraft Boeing better lube up and be prepared to be balls deep in lawsuits and canceled orders.


Can we pump the breaks a little on the speculation of an aircraft flaw (design or assembly)? The only changes to the airframe that could lead to something like this are some kind of totally messed up design of the FBW spoilers.

Other than that, they changed the tail taper which, unless it fell off wouldn't have a failure mode to cause this.

The engine pylons are different and the engines are mounted in a slightly different position but, again, unless there was a flaw of epic proportions leading to an engine falling off and taking part of the wing, nothing about the pylon is going to lead to a sudden control loss.

The rest of the aircraft is the same as the 737 NG.

It is POSSIBLE that there is some kind of design or assembly flaw that caused this but based on how similar it is to the 737NG that has been fly for 20 years and being built for so long by the same people, I would suspect a very low likelihood.
 
tcfc424
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:55 pm

Are all 737MAX aircraft equipped with ACARS? Wouldn't this have sent a good deal of technical information about the aircraft to ground during the flight?
 
trnswrld
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:00 pm

DL757NYC wrote:
flight152 wrote:
It’s absolutely insane how bad the safety record is for this airline. Blows my mind anyone would step on one of their aircraft.



How unsafe can a plane that is 2 months old be. This sounds like a problem with the airplane. They should have been flying on auto pilot 8 minutes into the flight. They also requested a return to the airport. If this is a flaw with the aircraft Boeing better lube up and be prepared to be balls deep in lawsuits and canceled orders.


Well, throw in possible airspeed reliability issues that the aircraft experienced on the previous flight....maybe some IMC conditions and walla, you now have two pilots with all sorts of confusing and mismatching information. Look at some of the other crashes that were otherwise perfectly good flying aircraft that were more or less flown into the ground, or completely lost control because of similar issues. Aeromexico B757 and AF447 to name two.
I cant stand the speculations here just as much as the next guy....so far we have people saying engine failure. One said rudder issues?!? (seriously, that happened decades ago on what can be considered practically a completely different airplane). Regardless, the plane literally just crashed and we have very little info. Based on WHAT WE HAVE so far, we know the aircraft had unreliable airspeed issues prior to this flight and some data from FR24.
At this point DL757NYC how can you possibly make a comment about Boeing better be ready to lube up for deep lawsuits and cancelled orders? really? smh
Last edited by trnswrld on Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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OA940
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:01 pm

Aesma wrote:
OA940 wrote:
LAXLHR wrote:
I REFUSE to get on Lion Air, with their 18 year old pilots. These young Asian pilots fly planes like they are racing cars...and Lion Air is full of high schoolers.. Its insaaaaane what is happening over at that airline. I warn everyone to steer clear of them.

I flew out of CGK earlier this year and you are pretty much over the water within a couple of minutes.

VERY VERY SAD!!! We can all disagree about many things on this site, but we all share one thing in common and thats our absolute love of commercial aviation. The joy the wonder of it all.... We all get on these planes all over the world, some of us like cabs...and well its just sad.



Easyjet and Wizzair have 18 year old pilots and they are perfectly safe...

People who are trying to pin it on the manufacturer are naive to say the least. Look into Lion's safety record. Add in the fact that this is a new type, aka they have had little time to familiarize themselves with how it works maintenance-wise. And there was a problem the night before. This is a recipe for disaster.


Well if Boeing delivers airplanes without making sure the client knows how to maintain them, that might look bad for them. Especially as they're focussing their efforts in earning money through packaging maintenance with the sale of the aircraft.


Or maybe the airline that has been statistically known to screw up maintenance and not give a damn about it in a country with an atrocious safety record pulled it off once again... :roll:
A350/CSeries = bae
 
cschleic
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:02 pm

Lufthansa wrote:
Yes those video's are clearly of the previous generation 737. Look at the bins, the PSU's and the lack of LED's. So yes those video's are definitely Fake News. As for those trying to rule out the engine.... didn't engine issues cause both the American and United DC-10 crashes leading to loss of flight surfaces etc?

I'm not ready to rule too much out atm. Other than the geared turbofan theory for obvious reasons. But that above report is hard to read but it does seem they needed to replace a pitot tube for some reason, which on an aircraft so new is odd. The 737max always looked like a quick update of the existing generation... few things to save weight, stretch the -700 slightly, mount new engines. Does anybody know if they updated the pitot tubes? If they're the same as on the 737NG then lion air shouldn't have had an issue with them.


United DC-10 - yes. American DC-10 - no....that was due to an issue with the engine pylon mount, not the engine itself. The 737 Max is much more than just a stretched 737-700. For one, there are Max 7 through 10 models, winglet changes, modified landing gear, and more.
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:02 pm

Just based on Lion’s and Boeing’s respective track records, if it was a mechanical failure I would suspect that the fault would have arisen from Lion’s maintenance. But we will not know until the investigation is complete.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
AirbusA322
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:04 pm

CRJ200flyer wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
Appie88 wrote:

Is -30.000 ft/min even possible? Maybe someone knows or can calculate?
Nose down, probably.. But when a plane stalls or something what minus vertical speed can it reach?


30.000 ft/min is only about 300 knots or so. A 737 climbs at about 280 knots. You can stall at all speeds and attitudes.


That would be a 300 knot vertical descent rate - an incredible rate that would be unsurvivable. A normal descent rate for an airliner is 500 up to around 2500 feet per minute. On final approach your descent rate is less than 1000 feet per minute, and on landing much less than that for a smooth touchdown.

For comparison, AF447 hit the ocean at 108 knots vertical speed or roughly 10,912 feet per minute. That aircraft was in a stall with only 107 knots of forward speed. Obviously that high descent rate destroyed the entire aircraft.

To fall out of the sky at this speed either the Tail has seperate or they have mistakenly full powered into the drink.
 
YYZYYT
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:14 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
YellowJ wrote:
Not to take away the focus from this sad situation; but is this a record from delivery to crash for any airline and/or aircraft made?


Gol Flight 1907, 3 weeks after delivery, should be up there as a “new plane”.


Unlike the other examples, this appears to be the newest aircraft on a scheduled flight with passengers. Even more appropriate when you consider, that it was brought down by a midair with another aircraft on a delivery flight.
 
osiris30
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:14 pm

DL757NYC wrote:
flight152 wrote:
It’s absolutely insane how bad the safety record is for this airline. Blows my mind anyone would step on one of their aircraft.



How unsafe can a plane that is 2 months old be. This sounds like a problem with the airplane. They should have been flying on auto pilot 8 minutes into the flight. They also requested a return to the airport. If this is a flaw with the aircraft Boeing better lube up and be prepared to be balls deep in lawsuits and canceled orders.


Wow. You come to that conclusion based on what???

The plane reported a problem on arrival, and apparently the flight the night before experienced problems. The MX logs show they messed with both the pitot tubes AND the elevator control systems/computer. So let's see; fatal flaw with the design or MX error at an airline with a spotty safety record, let me think what the Vegas odds are going to be on that one!

This sort of useless hyperbole post is EXACTLY why I stopped posting on this site for nearly a decade.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
osiris30
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:19 pm

AirbusA322 wrote:
CRJ200flyer wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

30.000 ft/min is only about 300 knots or so. A 737 climbs at about 280 knots. You can stall at all speeds and attitudes.


That would be a 300 knot vertical descent rate - an incredible rate that would be unsurvivable. A normal descent rate for an airliner is 500 up to around 2500 feet per minute. On final approach your descent rate is less than 1000 feet per minute, and on landing much less than that for a smooth touchdown.

For comparison, AF447 hit the ocean at 108 knots vertical speed or roughly 10,912 feet per minute. That aircraft was in a stall with only 107 knots of forward speed. Obviously that high descent rate destroyed the entire aircraft.

To fall out of the sky at this speed either the Tail has seperate or they have mistakenly full powered into the drink.


Not necessarily. Look at the MX log book that was posted on page 6. I have a sneaking suspicion that when you look at the MX log and then compare to the eventual flight data you will probably find some incorrect MX was performed (human error, not malicious or lazy).
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
robbo2k
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:19 pm

The aircraft calculates the speed of measuring the difference between dynamic and static pressure. If anything disturbs the measurement, the speed and altitude display will be incorrect.

At night before the flight, pitot tubes were cleaned, but the repair quality was only determined by static measurement at a standstill.

I can imagine thousands of variants in which static measurement will be correct and dynamic will not.

For example a crushed tube
 
expert7700
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:29 pm

DL757NYC wrote:


How unsafe can a plane that is 2 months old be. This sounds like a problem with the airplane. They should have been flying on auto pilot 8 minutes into the flight...


This situation is especialy eerie to me because last October I was on a days-old 737MAX (N8707P) that had a flight control problem. On Southwest airlines inaugural MAX flights commemorating their original 3 cities (WN flight #1/2/3).

htps://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1375611

Southwest flight #1 developed an issue in flight. Normal landing but the captain did not defer maintenance. He had the professionalism to do so even though the Southwest CEO was on board with dozens of media, photojournalists, and bloggers. (I cringe knowing that in some cultures it would have been tempting to fly anyway because disappointing superiors and leading to bad press would be shameful). Led to a couple hours delay, taxi to runway then error reoccurred etc. The CEO announced they had to ground the plane and cancel all festivities. He said he fully supported their decision. Then he stood in line with us to get rebooked.

N8707P had to make a rare trip back to Boeing @ Paine field and took several days to resolve. (I did not read up much on root cause but believe it turned out to be a miswired flaps or spoiler controller/sensor wired to wrong side.)

Surely this will end up being a different root cause, but I wanted to post that yes assembly problems with new aircraft (even if they have been rolling off production line for decades) can occur.

I *AM* curious if any of the maintenance reset procedures leaked on the log for this Lion Air flight would have recommended/required a test flight without passengers either per Boeing policy or per any other Airline procedures/manuals.
Last edited by expert7700 on Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Tn55337
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:34 pm

I see a lot op people speculateing it could be poor mantnance. Would there even have been any mantnance done on a 3 month old plane?
 
Binford
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:34 pm

expert7700 wrote:
DL757NYC wrote:


How unsafe can a plane that is 2 months old be. This sounds like a problem with the airplane. They should have been flying on auto pilot 8 minutes into the flight...


This situation is especialy eerie to me because last October I was on a days-old 737MAX (N8707P) that had a flight control problem. On Southwest airlines inaugural MAX flights commemorating their original 3 cities (WN flight #1/2/3).

htps://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1375611

Southwest flight #1 devoped an issue in flight. Normal landing but the captain did not defer maintenance. He had the professionalism to do so even though the Southwest CEO was on board with dozens of media, photojournalists, and bloggers. (I cringe knowing that in some cultures it would have been tempting to fly anyway because disappointing superiors and leading to bad press would be shameful). Led to a couple hours delay, taxi to runway then error reoccurred etc. The CEO announced they had to ground the plane and cancel all festivities. He said he fully supported their decision. Then he stood in line with us to get rebooked.

N8707P had to make a rare trip back to Boeing @ Paine field and took several days to resolve. (I did not read up much on root cause but believe it turned out to be a miswired flaps controller/sensor wired to wrong side of plane.)

Surely this will end up being a different root cause, but I wanted to post that yes assembly problems with new aircraft (even if they have been rolling off production line for decades) can occur.

I *AM* curious if any of the maintenance reset procedures leaked on the log for this Lion Air flight would have recommended/required a test flight without passengers either per Boeing policy or per any other Airline procedures/manuals.


Where do you see any reset that have been done according to leaked Techlog? They did a flushing of the Pitot Line and an connector cleaning on the Elevator Feel Computer with no mention of a reset.
 
LightningZ71
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:35 pm

So, perhaps, there was a combination of two factors: Incorrect airspeed and altitude readings and a loss of situational awareness. If they were getting an indication that their airspeed was deteriorating, is it possible that they introduced a nose down attitude to recover airspeed and, due to the loss of situational awareness, went too far nose down, didn't realize that they were that far nose down, resulting in a controlled flight directly into the water? The other possibility is that they stalled the aircraft during the turn to return to the airport and failed to recover it before hitting the water? With improper airspeed readings, maybe they misjudged the turn and let it get away from them?

Obviously I'm just trying to piece together a couple of possibilities based on what little information that we have. I'm not a pilot, nor did I stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night.
 
BAeRJ100
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:39 pm

Tn55337 wrote:
I see a lot op people speculateing it could be poor mantnance. Would there even have been any mantnance done on a 3 month old plane?


Of course there would have been. Aircraft require constant maintenance, some that's quite trivial, some that's not.
B737/738/739/744ER/752/753/763/77L/77W/788/789
A223/320/321/332/333/346/359/388
MD82/MD88/717/F100/RJ85/RJ100/146-100/200/300
E175/190/CRJ700/900
 
F9Animal
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:40 pm

log0008 wrote:
This a reportedly a filed incident report for the same aircraft from Yesterday

A: PK LQP, B737 Max 8

D: 28.10.2018

O: Airspeed unreliable and alt disagree shown after take off. STS was also running to the wrong direction, suspected because of speed difference. Identified that CAPT instrument was unreliable and handover control to FO. Continue NNC of Airspeed Unreliable and ALT disagree. Decide to continue flying to CGK at FL280, landed safely rwy 25L

R: DPS CGK LNI 043

E: AFML

R: Capt William Martinus/133031, FO M Fulki Naufan/ 144291


This is very alarming, and one has to ask why the plane was not pulled out for a thorough check? If the crew of the doomed flight had the same issue, then I suspect the pitot tubes may be in play here. I also have to wonder if the crew relied to heavily on their instruments and failed to just fly old fashioned? Whatever the case, it breaks my heart for the loss. My thoughts are with the loved ones and those lost.
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
d2008
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:40 pm

This is the First Officer : MR HERVINO....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSQKGFPkV2Q
 
A3801000
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:43 pm

AirbusA322 wrote:
... or they have mistakenly full powered into the drink.


Only mistakenly? Or intentionally too? Could the flight data we've seen show some kind of in-cockpit-struggle followed by a intentional dive?
 
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calpsafltskeds
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:45 pm

The climb profile shows the aircraft was losing altitude 1.5 mins into the flight, then varying altitude climb and decent rates until it dropped into the ocean. The first 5 minutes of the flight were over the heavily populated city. Unless there's an ATC climb limitation at CGK the aircraft should have been at 5000 feet in under 3 minutes. It flew over the city for several minutes at about 5000 feet. There should have been clues from the ground if the aircraft was not in clouds or engine noise could have provided a clue.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:49 pm

A3801000 wrote:
AirbusA322 wrote:
... or they have mistakenly full powered into the drink.


Only mistakenly? Or intentionally too? Could the flight data we've seen show some kind of in-cockpit-struggle followed by a intentional dive?


We know the previous flight had an unreliable airspeed issue. We know this plane flew some erratic following takeoff. We know the flight radioed that they were turning back due to a mechanical issue.

And somehow that leads to pilot suicide?
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:50 pm

One humble request would be to read the thread before postulating on what you think might have happened. Not trying to quell dialogue but things change quickly and if you aren’t up to speed it can create a lot of unnecessary speculation. Just a thought.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
SC430
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:19 pm

14 major incidents in about as many years. And they don't fly that many planes!!!
 
N766UA
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:19 pm

DL757NYC wrote:
flight152 wrote:
It’s absolutely insane how bad the safety record is for this airline. Blows my mind anyone would step on one of their aircraft.



How unsafe can a plane that is 2 months old be. This sounds like a problem with the airplane. They should have been flying on auto pilot 8 minutes into the flight. They also requested a return to the airport. If this is a flaw with the aircraft Boeing better lube up and be prepared to be balls deep in lawsuits and canceled orders.


What the actual eff are you talking about
 
D L X
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:20 pm

I haven't seen anyone else post about this, so I'll reiterate: if it is a PITOT tube problem, is the ADS-B data we are relying on here accurate?
 
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zeke
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:23 pm

ADS-B data comes from GPS
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YSAPW
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:25 pm

A3801000 wrote:
AirbusA322 wrote:
... or they have mistakenly full powered into the drink.


Only mistakenly? Or intentionally too? Could the flight data we've seen show some kind of in-cockpit-struggle followed by a intentional dive?




I also thought about that. Ala Germanwings, only in this scenario, both pilots are inside the cockpit, so some “struggle” between both of them could have been reflected as the erratic pattern we have seen (flying manual, one trying to get the plane down, the other doing the opposite, with some fighting in between).

Nevertheless, and apparently there was that call telling ATC they needed to get back to the field (because some technical issues?). That would blow the first theory away….…. unless: the one pilot convinced the other (talking about seconds here) to calm down, and in a blink of an eye: full power, nose dive.

This sounds a bit stretched, but till some harder evidence is retrieved, we can only speculate and the options are unlimited.
 
flymia
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:26 pm

Horrible to hear. Very odd for a brand new plane to go down regardless of the issues. While we don't know what happened, it typically will involved some type of pilot error. It is extraordinary rare for a mechanical error to be the sole cause and even the main cause of fatal accidents these days in airline travel.

I have seen some people mention engine failures. A single engine failure should almost never become major event that has the loss of life. That is pretty much one of the most practiced and certified events for both pilots and aircraft manufactures.

Who knows what happened. It is almost always a long sequence of events unless it was a malicious act. We won't know much for days to weeks and likely won't know the actual cause for months to over a year. I am sure Boeing has people on their way now. And I assume the FAA and NTSB will be watching this very closely and potentially involved in some way as well given the aircraft, its age, and how popular of a model it is around the world.
"It was just four of us on the flight deck, trying to do our job" (Captain Al Haynes)
 
osiris30
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:26 pm

D L X wrote:
I haven't seen anyone else post about this, so I'll reiterate: if it is a PITOT tube problem, is the ADS-B data we are relying on here accurate?


Not necessarily, no.

I should edit for clarity: Nothing we have to rely on at the moment should be considered definitive. Until you get collaborating secondary evidence nothing should be certain. You can reasonably trust certain bits of information but none should be considered gospel until they are cross checked.

For example with the ADS-B data: It is possible depending on the source something is wrong with their read (maybe a corner case in the software that misreads data in extreme conditions). These websites are known to drop data. Without seeing the source data (or source code) it is impossible to tell if the data have been smoothed or interpolated in some way.
Last edited by osiris30 on Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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PlanesNTrains
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:27 pm

YSAPW wrote:
A3801000 wrote:
AirbusA322 wrote:
... or they have mistakenly full powered into the drink.


Only mistakenly? Or intentionally too? Could the flight data we've seen show some kind of in-cockpit-struggle followed by a intentional dive?




I also thought about that. Ala Germanwings, only in this scenario, both pilots are inside the cockpit, so some “struggle” between both of them could have been reflected as the erratic pattern we have seen (flying manual, one trying to get the plane down, the other doing the opposite, with some fighting in between).

Nevertheless, and apparently there was that call telling ATC they needed to get back to the field (because some technical issues?). That would blow the first theory away….…. unless: the one pilot convinced the other (talking about seconds here) to calm down, and in a blink of an eye: full power, nose dive.

This sounds a bit stretched, but till some harder evidence is retrieved, we can only speculate and the options are unlimited.


The “harder evidence” is the previous flight’s issues. If that’s not enough to dissuade is from speculating about pilot suicide (the same pilots who likely tried valiantly to save 189 lives), then maybe I’m in the wrong place.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
Flighty
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:30 pm

DL757NYC wrote:
flight152 wrote:
It’s absolutely insane how bad the safety record is for this airline. Blows my mind anyone would step on one of their aircraft.



How unsafe can a plane that is 2 months old be. This sounds like a problem with the airplane. They should have been flying on auto pilot 8 minutes into the flight. They also requested a return to the airport. If this is a flaw with the aircraft Boeing better lube up and be prepared to be balls deep in lawsuits and canceled orders.


How unsafe can a 2 month old plane be? In Lion Air's hands? Really unsafe.
 
D L X
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:31 pm

zeke wrote:
ADS-B data comes from GPS

GPS from the plane, presumably, correct?

That is interesting. This might be a topic for another thread, but if the onboard systems can tell speed, altitude, and fpm changes using GPS, would not the pilots have access to that info too to compensate for loss of pitot reliability?
 
robbo2k
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:35 pm

pilots have GPS data in front of their noses
 
flight152
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:39 pm

DL757NYC wrote:
flight152 wrote:
It’s absolutely insane how bad the safety record is for this airline. Blows my mind anyone would step on one of their aircraft.



How unsafe can a plane that is 2 months old be. This sounds like a problem with the airplane. They should have been flying on auto pilot 8 minutes into the flight. They also requested a return to the airport. If this is a flaw with the aircraft Boeing better lube up and be prepared to be balls deep in lawsuits and canceled orders.

I don’t understand why people equate the aircraft age with safety. HAS NO BEARING. An inexperienced flight crew with poor communication, situational awareness and decision making is what cases accidents most of the time.
 
Western727
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:39 pm

D L X wrote:
zeke wrote:
ADS-B data comes from GPS

GPS from the plane, presumably, correct?

That is interesting. This might be a topic for another thread, but if the onboard systems can tell speed, altitude, and fpm changes using GPS, would not the pilots have access to that info too to compensate for loss of pitot reliability?


Interesting questions. Licensed private pilot here, and using my ADS-B (that is, ADS-B "in" only, not in/out, so it only receives realtime GPS data on my position, speed, wx and other aircraft *IF* they have ADS-B out capabilities) yesterday on a 4-leg trip, I indeed received realtime data on my ground speed but *not* IAS, which I relied on the Piper PA-28's airspeed indicator for.
Jack @ AUS
 
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YSAPW
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:41 pm

The “harder evidence” is the previous flight’s issues. If that’s not enough to dissuade is from speculating about pilot suicide (the same pilots who likely tried valiantly to save 189 lives), then maybe I’m in the wrong place.[/quote]

I also think it was "something else". I was sharing what my first thoughts were. Still, until (and if) we actually know what happened, all we can do is speculate (even having bits of "harder evidence").
 
osiris30
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:44 pm

D L X wrote:
zeke wrote:
ADS-B data comes from GPS

GPS from the plane, presumably, correct?

That is interesting. This might be a topic for another thread, but if the onboard systems can tell speed, altitude, and fpm changes using GPS, would not the pilots have access to that info too to compensate for loss of pitot reliability?


You can't measure IAS by GPS. You can infer it and even calculate it if you know winds, direction and pressure. However it is unlikely you will get much better than ball park with that calculation in tropical regions due to rapid flux in weather patterns.

You CAN certainly use GPS at 5k ft to give you a good enough idea to not die though.

One thing I am suspicious of is the maintenance on the elevator feel equipment. It could have from a loose or faulty connection provided feedback to the pilots that did not match reality. That could severely complicate the situational awareness piece of the puzzle. If you have bad airspeed data AND the plane doesn't behave or feel right it is a pretty daunting issue.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
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Aesma
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:44 pm

calpsafltskeds wrote:
The climb profile shows the aircraft was losing altitude 1.5 mins into the flight, then varying altitude climb and decent rates until it dropped into the ocean. The first 5 minutes of the flight were over the heavily populated city. Unless there's an ATC climb limitation at CGK the aircraft should have been at 5000 feet in under 3 minutes. It flew over the city for several minutes at about 5000 feet. There should have been clues from the ground if the aircraft was not in clouds or engine noise could have provided a clue.


Page 3 you have a comparison with a previous flight and indeed up to 1 minute flight time things seem similar but after that the fateful flight clearly has a problem.
Last edited by Aesma on Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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SEPilot
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:48 pm

Tn55337 wrote:
I see a lot op people speculateing it could be poor mantnance. Would there even have been any mantnance done on a 3 month old plane?

A modern airliner is complex enough that it requires constant maintenance. Yes, a brand new plane should require less, but it still requires some. Things get damaged regardless of age. And pitot/static systems can get plugged or damaged any time. There was a 757 that crashed because the static ports were taped over. If there was a fundamental problem with the MAX the odds that it would show up first on the airline with the worst safety record in aviation are pretty small.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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flybynight
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:56 pm

While it is strange for a brand new plane to crash like this, all the attention is on the passengers and families that suffered and will suffer.

Yes we will want to know the cause to prevent future situations, but let's focus on the people not the brand new plane.
Heia Norge!
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