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slvrblt
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 8:39 pm

Don't the up and down oscillations and final dive seem to point to elevators or control surfaces gone berserk or uncontrollable? Poor pax on board...... awful final moments.
..everything works out in the end.
 
crescent
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 8:44 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -data-show

In a stall, is a drop of 15,000 feet per minute typical?
 
teachpdx
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 8:54 pm

I have a very hard time believing the final descent rate. It’s substantially faster than the acceleration due to gravity, and what can be inferred to be the terminal velocity of a stalled aircraft. To accomplish this, the plane would need to be steep nose down at full power. And I just don’t see that happening here, unless it’s an elevator failure similar to AS 261. Even that uncontrolled dive was only 15,000 ft/min.
And just to add to the ongoing side topic... West Coast Airlines 956 had only been in service with the airline for 5 days before CFIT near Mount Hood/PDX. It was the first DC-9 hull loss.
Up Next: THIS YEAR IS CANCELLED!!!
 
Trin
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:21 pm

crescent wrote:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-29/lion-air-jet-s-final-plunge-topped-300-miles-per-hour-data-show

In a stall, is a drop of 15,000 feet per minute typical?


Well, at the point of impact with the ocean, AF447 was descending at 10,912 feet per minute, and of course that was largely in a nose-up configuration with AOAs never below 35 degrees.

So, 15,000 feet per minute would to me sound entirely plausible/possible - especially if they were nose-level or nose-down and the thrust was at TOGA.

Trin
 
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HappyKasper
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:36 pm

cat3appr50 wrote:
The major focus IMO would be what occurred during the initial climb at 2,050’ msl that set this climb anomaly in motion, finally resulting in total loss of altitude control resulting in impact with the ocean around 9 minutes later?

With that flight anomaly at 2,050’ msl with sudden significant loss in altitude to 1,475’ msl, and resulting very high ground speed, why then re-continue a climb (to 5,350’ msl), instead of immediately returning to the departure airport and attempting a landing. They were 5.4 NM away from WIII Rwy07R when at the 2,050’ msl anomaly. When they completely lost control they were around 31 NM from WIII.

Don’t know the time they (as being reported) noted technical issues with ATC, and what was said regarding the specific technical issue? Don’t see any airspeed and altitude data that would indicate a stall causing the total loss of control to ocean impact around 10 minutes after takeoff.


This seems to be the right place to focus - some folks above have suggested that this first slight descent might be "noise" but it fits with the idea of pitot blockage and a stall warning, because right at about 2000 feet is where they'd hit the clouds... someone reported a METAR of SCT020 earlier in this thread...

So perhaps they're in the clouds with the stall warning, push the stick to descend, break out of the clouds and level out at about 1500, realize they're having instrument malfunctions they don't understand, and decide that they should gain altitude for safety in case they're going to become a glider sometime soon. We don't know the cloud tops, and I've seen METARS of "scattered" that look more like "overcast" to me - so they might be hand-flying in IMC at 5000, not knowing what instruments to trust, and next thing they know they're breaking out of the clouds in an inverted dive with the waves rushing at them.

This sort of loss of control owing to losing faith in the instruments has happened before, both with China Airlines 006 ("that gyro can't be right") and AF447 ("that airspeed can't be right"). This would be, like a lot of people have said, more akin to China Airlines 006... but with ceilings at 2000, they didn't have the 10,000 feet of altitude to recover that China Airlines was lucky enough to get.
 
bolbibug
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:20 pm

If you take post #261's maintenance log viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1407217&start=250#p20819277

With this log https://imgur.com/Pf4y07V
Image

And this account from a passenger in a previous flight
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1407217&start=250#p20819571

Where do you suspect the fault lies?
 
747megatop
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:23 pm

ryanov wrote:
flight152 wrote:
It’s absolutely insane how bad the safety record is for this airline. Blows my mind anyone would step on one of their aircraft.

Air travel is statistically so safe that I bet it's still safer than driving a car, which is something people do all the time. Sure, makes no sense to take risks you don't have to, but I doubt it's as dangerous as all that. I'm having trouble finding the relative accident rates.

Well, granted that driving is unsafe compared to flying & we still take the risk but we definitely won't step into a car knowing let's say wheel nut lugs are missing OR for that matter we perhaps won't step into a bus if we knew that the bus company had a string of crashes almost every week. Similarly; informed passengers may make a choice to stay clear from the likes of Lion air. I tell family and friends that Aviation is statistically one of the safest form of transportation (other being high speed trains in Japan, Germany, France and Spain) BUT stay away from carriers in Indonesia, all carriers other then Aeroflot in Russia & all those lesser known carriers in Africa (other than of course SAA & Ethiopian maybe?). Granted that you still have a higher chance of getting killed in the intersection next to your home than when you fly on Lion Air..but still..why take the chance when you can avoid? Driving in your car....you can't avoid...even though it is tempting to drive around in an armored personnel carrier if it were practical to prevent dying in a road accident.
 
flyinTLow
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:25 pm

Pardon me if this has come up in the previous posts, I haven‘t read all of them:

Flightradar24 data only relies on Mode-S and ADS-B data, meaning the GS and ALT information come from within the aircraft. I don‘t know the technicals behind the 737, but I am almost certain that if the CM1 instruments, especially air data on his instruments are unreliable, the flightradar24 data becomes just as unreliable.

flyinTLow
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ImperialEagle
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:30 pm

YellowJ wrote:
Not to take away the focus from this sad situation; but is this a record from delivery to crash for any airline and/or aircraft made?


Well, the L-14, M-202, Comet, L-188 B-707 and B-727 come to mind.
"If everything seems under control, you're just not going fast enough!"
 
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Erebus
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:46 pm

Will the US NTSB participate in the investigation?
 
cpd
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:51 pm

crescent wrote:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-29/lion-air-jet-s-final-plunge-topped-300-miles-per-hour-data-show

In a stall, is a drop of 15,000 feet per minute typical?


I think 10,000ft/min is possible.

It sounds like this could have been erroneous data indications. Strange climb behaviour, unusual airspeed, etc. Let's see what the official verdict is. Terrible incident.
Last edited by cpd on Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
dragon6172
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:53 pm

flyinTLow wrote:
Pardon me if this has come up in the previous posts, I haven‘t read all of them:

Flightradar24 data only relies on Mode-S and ADS-B data, meaning the GS and ALT information come from within the aircraft. I don‘t know the technicals behind the 737, but I am almost certain that if the CM1 instruments, especially air data on his instruments are unreliable, the flightradar24 data becomes just as unreliable.

flyinTLow

GS probably comes from a GPS source, or FlightRadar24 calculates it based of time/distance of position data. Blocked pitot tubes result in bad airspeed indications with normal altitude indications. Blocked static ports would effect both altitude and airspeed.
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STLflyer
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:53 pm

Erebus wrote:
Will the US NTSB participate in the investigation?

Yeah I'm sure they will since it's an American made aircraft.
 
MesserJ
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:55 pm

Erebus wrote:
Will the US NTSB participate in the investigation?

Yes because the accident involves a US-built aircraft.
 
kraz911
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:02 pm

Hello all,
I’m sure Boeing sent a planeload of techs and executives to Jakarta to be all over this. I’m also confident that the black boxes will be recovered poste haste. As of right now the people on the ground that have the most knowledge of that aircraft pre crash are the flight crew that brought it to Jakarta and the techs working on it overnight. I wouldn’t be surprized that they raised the plane from the bottom to investigate deeper. One thing about the Sunday flight. People said the lights flickered, the air con was off on the ground so conditions in the aircraft were hot and humid. On taking off they mentioned the right engine was whining and or surging airborne from reports. I wonder if the humidity/ moisture affected the electronics in some manner. I can’t stop thinking we lost a B-2 bomber due to moisture in Guam awhile ago. Unless there is a glaring failure somewhere in this accident that will be caught quickly, I feel it may be a difficult investigation to reconstruct...
 
Swadian
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:14 pm

747megatop wrote:
ryanov wrote:
flight152 wrote:
It’s absolutely insane how bad the safety record is for this airline. Blows my mind anyone would step on one of their aircraft.

Air travel is statistically so safe that I bet it's still safer than driving a car, which is something people do all the time. Sure, makes no sense to take risks you don't have to, but I doubt it's as dangerous as all that. I'm having trouble finding the relative accident rates.

Well, granted that driving is unsafe compared to flying & we still take the risk but we definitely won't step into a car knowing let's say wheel nut lugs are missing OR for that matter we perhaps won't step into a bus if we knew that the bus company had a string of crashes almost every week. Similarly; informed passengers may make a choice to stay clear from the likes of Lion air. I tell family and friends that Aviation is statistically one of the safest form of transportation (other being high speed trains in Japan, Germany, France and Spain) BUT stay away from carriers in Indonesia, all carriers other then Aeroflot in Russia & all those lesser known carriers in Africa (other than of course SAA & Ethiopian maybe?). Granted that you still have a higher chance of getting killed in the intersection next to your home than when you fly on Lion Air..but still..why take the chance when you can avoid? Driving in your car....you can't avoid...even though it is tempting to drive around in an armored personnel carrier if it were practical to prevent dying in a road accident.


To be fair, Rossiya and S7 are not that bad in Russia.
 
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Erebus
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:20 pm

STLflyer wrote:
Yeah I'm sure they will since it's an American made aircraft.


A curious premise. Not to stray far from the topic but suppose (hypothetically) an accident involved an A320/A220 that was assembled in the US but operated by a non-US airline, would the NTSB take part in those investigations?
 
ikramerica
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:23 pm

Pitot failure is not uncommon. I recall after the AF incident, there were many incidents discussed where pitot tubes on various types had failed and the pilots correctly dealt with the problem.

Also of note was the AF crew was experienced but still failed to recognize the problem correctly. So experience level isn’t necessarily going to predict the outcome. The Lion crew in this case had plenty of hours.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
aden23
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:27 pm

HappyKasper wrote:
cat3appr50 wrote:
next thing they know they're breaking out of the clouds in an inverted dive with the waves rushing at them.


I don't understand. Are you suggesting that a pilot with 6,000 hours wouldn't know the difference between what it feels like when his aircraft is climbing, vs. when it's pointed straight at the ground?
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:30 pm

Erebus wrote:
STLflyer wrote:
Yeah I'm sure they will since it's an American made aircraft.


A curious premise. Not to stray far from the topic but suppose (hypothetically) an accident involved an A320/A220 that was assembled in the US but operated by a non-US airline, would the NTSB take part in those investigations?


Most likely they would not. It may have been assembled in the US but it is not a product of the US.
 
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afterburner
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:43 pm

GE90man wrote:
Flightsimboy wrote:
Billthe3rd wrote:
Possible video from inside the aircraft before crash
https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=aVWfd_1540802111


How does one find the camera or the device that recorded the video but not the plane. Have people gone so dull headed to believe anything on social media these days.

It's possible someone uploaded a live video as it was happening, such as the case when someone uploads to Facebook live. The video that was streamed is then saved online.

Uploading a video needs an internet connection. Lion Air is a low cost carrier. There are no WiFi service in its aircraft.
 
FlyHappy
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:47 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
Erebus wrote:
STLflyer wrote:
Yeah I'm sure they will since it's an American made aircraft.


A curious premise. Not to stray far from the topic but suppose (hypothetically) an accident involved an A320/A220 that was assembled in the US but operated by a non-US airline, would the NTSB take part in those investigations?


Most likely they would not. It may have been assembled in the US but it is not a product of the US.


I believe the NTSB has participated ("assisted") in a number of investigations that do not involve US built aircraft and occur outside the US. Embraers, ATR's, DeHavilland , what have you.
They do so when invited, because, frankly, most of the world outside of Europe/Japan simply do not have the capacity to perform such detailed and technical work - no shame, just a fact. And knowledge about safety doesn't stop at national borders. It has value all its own.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:49 pm

747megatop wrote:
ryanov wrote:
flight152 wrote:
It’s absolutely insane how bad the safety record is for this airline. Blows my mind anyone would step on one of their aircraft.

Air travel is statistically so safe that I bet it's still safer than driving a car, which is something people do all the time. Sure, makes no sense to take risks you don't have to, but I doubt it's as dangerous as all that. I'm having trouble finding the relative accident rates.

Well, granted that driving is unsafe compared to flying & we still take the risk but we definitely won't step into a car knowing let's say wheel nut lugs are missing OR for that matter we perhaps won't step into a bus if we knew that the bus company had a string of crashes almost every week. Similarly; informed passengers may make a choice to stay clear from the likes of Lion air ... stay away from carriers in Indonesia.

You should rather reccommend "stay away from Indonesia".

There is a problem in Indonesian aviation but it is not confined to any airline in particular. The EU blacklisting of all Indonesian carriers shows that. And when aviation seems bad, don't even think of stepping foot on an indonesian road or boarding a ship. I've done that and never feared more for my life. I would still happily fly Lionair (not Sriwijaya Air though - too much duct tape for my taste).
The hate some people - not you - have expressed towards Lionair is entirely unjustified. There has not been "a string of crashes almost every week". Infact, many of the reffered incidents were runway excursions, which are more common overall than you might expect. Several accusations brought forward very quickly after the crash were generalising and unprofessional, certainly influenced by the posters' emotions.
 
salttee
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:50 pm

aden23 wrote:
Are you suggesting that a pilot with 6,000 hours wouldn't know the difference between what it feels like when his aircraft is climbing, vs. when it's pointed straight at the ground?

If they're in clouds with no visual reference and instrument failure, how would anybody be able to tell up from down? The aircraft's movements can cause Gs from any direction. Just a few seconds in clouds without any ground reference can and will cause spatial disorientation.
 
Mortyman
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:55 pm

Tragic news. Plane crashes has luckily become fewer, but when they do happen, they affect a lot of families. Hopefully relatives will get answers soon as to what happend.

On a very different note,

Boeing stock was down 6,59 % on Wall street earlier today.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:58 pm

aden23 wrote:
HappyKasper wrote:
cat3appr50 wrote:
next thing they know they're breaking out of the clouds in an inverted dive with the waves rushing at them.


I don't understand. Are you suggesting that a pilot with 6,000 hours wouldn't know the difference between what it feels like when his aircraft is climbing, vs. when it's pointed straight at the ground?

"Feel" is difficult in IMC. Your body's sensors are easily confused. However, weather was reportedly good and the sun was up, so they only needed to look out to see where they're going. The request to return to CGK implies that the crew knew that something was wrong, thus it's probably completely different from the Saratov An-148 earlier this year (which pointed almost "straight at the ground").
 
SoCalPilot
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:59 pm

aden23 wrote:
HappyKasper wrote:
cat3appr50 wrote:
next thing they know they're breaking out of the clouds in an inverted dive with the waves rushing at them.


I don't understand. Are you suggesting that a pilot with 6,000 hours wouldn't know the difference between what it feels like when his aircraft is climbing, vs. when it's pointed straight at the ground?

As someone who flies for a living, I can tell you that if you put me or most pilots in IMC with unreliable instruments and no backups, that yes, we'd have no idea which way is up or if our airplane is climbing or turning. Your body gives you false indications of what is really happening when you have no outside visual cues to back it up.

Most of the time when I'm flying in IMC I feel like I'm doing something completely different than what I actually am.
 
aden23
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:12 am

SoCalPilot wrote:
aden23 wrote:
HappyKasper wrote:


Your body gives you false indications of what is really happening when you have no outside visual cues to back it up.

Most of the time when I'm flying in IMC I feel like I'm doing something completely different than what I actually am.


Fascinating, I never would have suspected this. Aren't there backup artificial horizons? Would all of these ever realistically fail at the same time?
 
nutsaboutplanes
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:13 am

On our local Los Angeles news, they just reported that the US government is looking into a person who is on the US no fly list who is believed to have been onboard.
American Airlines, US Airways, Alaska Airlines, Northwest Airlines, America West Airlines, USAFR
 
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7BOEING7
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:24 am

aden23 wrote:
SoCalPilot wrote:
aden23 wrote:

Your body gives you false indications of what is really happening when you have no outside visual cues to back it up.

Most of the time when I'm flying in IMC I feel like I'm doing something completely different than what I actually am.


Fascinating, I never would have suspected this. Aren't there backup artificial horizons? Would all of these ever realistically fail at the same time?


There are backups and flight in IMC is predicated on not all of them failing but.....stuff happens, just not very often if at all.
 
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FL420
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:27 am

Very sad and shocking. Thoughts to all involved and their families. Gonna sit this one and wait for a report.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:29 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Erebus wrote:
STLflyer wrote:
Yeah I'm sure they will since it's an American made aircraft.


A curious premise. Not to stray far from the topic but suppose (hypothetically) an accident involved an A320/A220 that was assembled in the US but operated by a non-US airline, would the NTSB take part in those investigations?


Most likely they would not. It may have been assembled in the US but it is not a product of the US.

Due to US engines (partner), the NTSB is often involved in Airbus incidents. During my early career I was pulled into review A330 log files for an incident with Pratt engines.

This was over protests from the opperating nation who didn't want the root cause public.

If there is one national from a nation onboard, they have the right to investigate.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
luv2cattlecall
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:44 am

7BOEING7 wrote:
aden23 wrote:
SoCalPilot wrote:


Fascinating, I never would have suspected this. Aren't there backup artificial horizons? Would all of these ever realistically fail at the same time?


There are backups and flight in IMC is predicated on not all of them failing but.....stuff happens, just not very often if at all.


I understand the failure modes that could cause all the pitot-static system instruments on a plane to show false indications, but how often do all the artificial horizons in a commercial plane quit or show false info?
 
Bradin
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:48 am

kraz911 wrote:
Hello all,
I’m sure Boeing sent a planeload of techs and executives to Jakarta to be all over this. I’m also confident that the black boxes will be recovered poste haste. As of right now the people on the ground that have the most knowledge of that aircraft pre crash are the flight crew that brought it to Jakarta and the techs working on it overnight. I wouldn’t be surprized that they raised the plane from the bottom to investigate deeper. One thing about the Sunday flight. People said the lights flickered, the air con was off on the ground so conditions in the aircraft were hot and humid. On taking off they mentioned the right engine was whining and or surging airborne from reports. I wonder if the humidity/ moisture affected the electronics in some manner. I can’t stop thinking we lost a B-2 bomber due to moisture in Guam awhile ago. Unless there is a glaring failure somewhere in this accident that will be caught quickly, I feel it may be a difficult investigation to reconstruct...


Boeing Go Teams are generally always deployed when a Boeing aircraft involved in a crash.

https://www.boeing.com/news/frontiers/a ... _bca05.pdf.
 
rbavfan
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:53 am

ryanov wrote:
flight152 wrote:
It’s absolutely insane how bad the safety record is for this airline. Blows my mind anyone would step on one of their aircraft.

Air travel is statistically so safe that I bet it's still safer than driving a car, which is something people do all the time. Sure, makes no sense to take risks you don't have to, but I doubt it's as dangerous as all that. I'm having trouble finding the relative accident rates.


They have been in business 14 years and had 14 crashes. That's the accident rate. How many other carriers average 1 crasht per year of operations?
 
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HappyKasper
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:54 am

aden23 wrote:
Fascinating, I never would have suspected this. Aren't there backup artificial horizons? Would all of these ever realistically fail at the same time?


Likely not, and there's no reason any of them would've failed on this flight (while there's some circumstantial evidence that there was something wrong with the pitot-static system, as evidenced by the previous day's flight) - but in the famous China Airlines 006 flight where a 747 did a barrel roll descent from 40,000 to 10,000 feet, the pilot was looking at the artificial horizon slowly rolling further and further left, and concluded that there must be a fault.

Of course, if you suspect a gyro failure, you should verify this with other instruments (backup gyros, heading indicator, compass, turn and bank) - but if half of your instrument readings are obviously impossible and you've got a stall warning blaring and you're in the clouds and this is a new airplane for you, you might forget to do that.
 
rbavfan
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:58 am

HappyKasper wrote:
cat3appr50 wrote:
The major focus IMO would be what occurred during the initial climb at 2,050’ msl that set this climb anomaly in motion, finally resulting in total loss of altitude control resulting in impact with the ocean around 9 minutes later?

With that flight anomaly at 2,050’ msl with sudden significant loss in altitude to 1,475’ msl, and resulting very high ground speed, why then re-continue a climb (to 5,350’ msl), instead of immediately returning to the departure airport and attempting a landing. They were 5.4 NM away from WIII Rwy07R when at the 2,050’ msl anomaly. When they completely lost control they were around 31 NM from WIII.

Don’t know the time they (as being reported) noted technical issues with ATC, and what was said regarding the specific technical issue? Don’t see any airspeed and altitude data that would indicate a stall causing the total loss of control to ocean impact around 10 minutes after takeoff.


This seems to be the right place to focus - some folks above have suggested that this first slight descent might be "noise" but it fits with the idea of pitot blockage and a stall warning, because right at about 2000 feet is where they'd hit the clouds... someone reported a METAR of SCT020 earlier in this thread...

So perhaps they're in the clouds with the stall warning, push the stick to descend, break out of the clouds and level out at about 1500, realize they're having instrument malfunctions they don't understand, and decide that they should gain altitude for safety in case they're going to become a glider sometime soon. We don't know the cloud tops, and I've seen METARS of "scattered" that look more like "overcast" to me - so they might be hand-flying in IMC at 5000, not knowing what instruments to trust, and next thing they know they're breaking out of the clouds in an inverted dive with the waves rushing at them.

This sort of loss of control owing to losing faith in the instruments has happened before, both with China Airlines 006 ("that gyro can't be right") and AF447 ("that airspeed can't be right"). This would be, like a lot of people have said, more akin to China Airlines 006... but with ceilings at 2000, they didn't have the 10,000 feet of altitude to recover that China Airlines was lucky enough to get.


Or JFK Jr's final flight.
 
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BayAreaLen
Posts: 6
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:02 am

mxaxai wrote:
747megatop wrote:
ryanov wrote:
Air travel is statistically so safe that I bet it's still safer than driving a car, which is something people do all the time. Sure, makes no sense to take risks you don't have to, but I doubt it's as dangerous as all that. I'm having trouble finding the relative accident rates.

Well, granted that driving is unsafe compared to flying & we still take the risk but we definitely won't step into a car knowing let's say wheel nut lugs are missing OR for that matter we perhaps won't step into a bus if we knew that the bus company had a string of crashes almost every week. Similarly; informed passengers may make a choice to stay clear from the likes of Lion air ... stay away from carriers in Indonesia.

You should rather reccommend "stay away from Indonesia".

There is a problem in Indonesian aviation but it is not confined to any airline in particular. The EU blacklisting of all Indonesian carriers shows that. And when aviation seems bad, don't even think of stepping foot on an indonesian road or boarding a ship. I've done that and never feared more for my life. I would still happily fly Lionair (not Sriwijaya Air though - too much duct tape for my taste).
The hate some people - not you - have expressed towards Lionair is entirely unjustified. There has not been "a string of crashes almost every week". Infact, many of the reffered incidents were runway excursions, which are more common overall than you might expect. Several accusations brought forward very quickly after the crash were generalising and unprofessional, certainly influenced by the posters' emotions.


As an American who lives in Denpasar, I can weigh in a bit here, but please, make no mistake about it, I am not at all claiming to be an expert, or know what exactly happened to this flight, and will wait for the investigation to extract more facts. That and I am, first and foremost, sorry to the people lost and the families of those who have lost their lives in this terrible accident.

That said, I think your right. Lion does get a bad name, and it's not just around the world. My own Indonesian friends advise me not to fly them, so even the local population seems very quick to condemn their own country's airline. There are indeed however some very young, slightly less experienced pilots that fly for Lion and Batik, however, but that's not to say that most of them aren't fantastic pilots who do a great job each and every day they take to the skies. What I see the problem being as to the condemnation of Indonesian Airlines in general, is how things work in Indonesia. Basically, the people who get promoted, in any sector, not just aviation, often are the result of knowing the right person, or paying off the right authority. Essentially, either knowing people in high places gets you where you desire to be in Indonesia, as well as, simply, money talks. I don't think it would be too far fetched to say that when all things are considered, there might be a few among the entire aviation industry in Indonesia, from cabin crew to ground crew, maintenance crew to pilots, whom have utilized their power and privilege to gain a position, versus the average poor Indonesian who may have been the better candidate for a particular job. Again, I am not claiming in any way, shape or form that I know what happened in this tragic event, or even if the information I have observed in my time living in Denpasar is useful to folks on this board or not (that's for you all to decide,) but I thought it wouldn't hurt to give the perspective from U.S. native, currently living most of the year in Denpasar Indonesia.

Indonesians are fantastic people, who work hard and do what they need to do, within the parameters of their opportunity in this life, and many of them are my friends. They are hard working, non-confrontational, most often well meaning and caring people. This is a very sad tragedy for them, and they certainly have enough tragedy to deal with already, as it is, what with that being a dangerously seismic region. I sincerely hope (even as an admitted Boeing fan,) that this terrible tragedy was the cause of an unfortunate, one-off incident. The perfect storm, so to speak. I of course hope this is not a fatal design flaw with the MAX, but I also do not root for human error either, in the sense that I really do think the people at Lion and their subsidiaries do the best they can, in an archipelago that can be quite a challenging flight sector. No matter the outcome of the investigation, this was a sad day for aviation, and for Indonesia.
 
STLflyer
Posts: 257
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:09 am

Erebus wrote:
STLflyer wrote:
Yeah I'm sure they will since it's an American made aircraft.


A curious premise. Not to stray far from the topic but suppose (hypothetically) an accident involved an A320/A220 that was assembled in the US but operated by a non-US airline, would the NTSB take part in those investigations?


I would guess the NTSB would at least offer their help regardless of where the aircraft was built. They're good at what they do, and we all benefit from finding out what caused a crash.
 
Flighty
Posts: 9963
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 3:07 am

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:09 am

BayAreaLen wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
747megatop wrote:
Well, granted that driving is unsafe compared to flying & we still take the risk but we definitely won't step into a car knowing let's say wheel nut lugs are missing OR for that matter we perhaps won't step into a bus if we knew that the bus company had a string of crashes almost every week. Similarly; informed passengers may make a choice to stay clear from the likes of Lion air ... stay away from carriers in Indonesia.

You should rather reccommend "stay away from Indonesia".

There is a problem in Indonesian aviation but it is not confined to any airline in particular. The EU blacklisting of all Indonesian carriers shows that. And when aviation seems bad, don't even think of stepping foot on an indonesian road or boarding a ship. I've done that and never feared more for my life. I would still happily fly Lionair (not Sriwijaya Air though - too much duct tape for my taste).
The hate some people - not you - have expressed towards Lionair is entirely unjustified. There has not been "a string of crashes almost every week". Infact, many of the reffered incidents were runway excursions, which are more common overall than you might expect. Several accusations brought forward very quickly after the crash were generalising and unprofessional, certainly influenced by the posters' emotions.


As an American who lives in Denpasar, I can weigh in a bit here, but please, make no mistake about it, I am not at all claiming to be an expert, or know what exactly happened to this flight, and will wait for the investigation to extract more facts. That and I am, first and foremost, sorry to the people lost and the families of those who have lost their lives in this terrible accident.

That said, I think your right. Lion does get a bad name, and it's not just around the world. My own Indonesian friends advise me not to fly them, so even the local population seems very quick to condemn their own country's airline. There are indeed however some very young, slightly less experienced pilots that fly for Lion and Batik, however, but that's not to say that most of them aren't fantastic pilots who do a great job each and every day they take to the skies. What I see the problem being as to the condemnation of Indonesian Airlines in general, is how things work in Indonesia. Basically, the people who get promoted, in any sector, not just aviation, often are the result of knowing the right person, or paying off the right authority. Essentially, either knowing people in high places gets you where you desire to be in Indonesia, as well as, simply, money talks. I don't think it would be too far fetched to say that when all things are considered, there might be a few among the entire aviation industry in Indonesia, from cabin crew to ground crew, maintenance crew to pilots, whom have utilized their power and privilege to gain a position, versus the average poor Indonesian who may have been the better candidate for a particular job. Again, I am not claiming in any way, shape or form that I know what happened in this tragic event, or even if the information I have observed in my time living in Denpasar is useful to folks on this board or not (that's for you all to decide,) but I thought it wouldn't hurt to give the perspective from U.S. native, currently living most of the year in Denpasar Indonesia.

Indonesians are fantastic people, who work hard and do what they need to do, within the parameters of their opportunity in this life, and many of them are my friends. They are hard working, non-confrontational, most often well meaning and caring people. This is a very sad tragedy for them, and they certainly have enough tragedy to deal with already, as it is, what with that being a dangerously seismic region. I sincerely hope (even as an admitted Boeing fan,) that this terrible tragedy was the cause of an unfortunate, one-off incident. The perfect storm, so to speak. I of course hope this is not a fatal design flaw with the MAX, but I also do not root for human error either, in the sense that I really do think the people at Lion and their subsidiaries do the best they can, in an archipelago that can be quite a challenging flight sector. No matter the outcome of the investigation, this was a sad day for aviation, and for Indonesia.


This is a very heartfelt and moving message. No disagreement at all. As an a.net armchair member, my hope is that Indonesia realizes that their lack of regulatory culture most likely caused this accident. And everyone should take responsibility for the forthcominig, future accidents that will be caused in a similar way. The USA also had a lot of accidents before we realized we had to change. That is how change happens.

All this is based on a presumption, based on prior trends, that these crew were put into a terribly improper situation by their carrier. And perhaps they didn't know how to deal with it at the best level. Or if Boeing is purely at fault then obviously the same goes double for Boeing, but I doubt it.
 
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Starlionblue
Posts: 20219
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:23 am

robbo2k wrote:
pilots have GPS data in front of their noses


Normally on a page in the FM interface, so not quite "right there", but yes. However, it is not normally used as a primary flying reference. In a crisis, it would take time and situational awareness to cross-check an erroneous air data indication with GPS. It would also take time and awareness to notice that air data was faulty.

Also, GPS without air data will give you ground speed, not IAS. Much better than nothing of course.
Last edited by Starlionblue on Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
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Aesma
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:23 am

Boeing and CFM have a right to be part of the investigation (through the NTSB) but I don't think they can send a planeload of people unless it's requested by local authorities.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Starlionblue
Posts: 20219
Joined: Fri Feb 27, 2004 9:54 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:33 am

Varsity1 wrote:
The most dangerous flight in an airplane is the first one after MX. Most airlines have expanded checklist procedures for precisely this reason. MX will move knobs and switches out of normal position (that are usually never touched) causing great confusion for the pilots if they aren't caught before flight.

It could be as simple as the cabin dump switch left open, the pilots are trying to figure out why the airplane isn't pressurizing and lose situational awareness. (eastern L1011 scenario)


Only after heavy maintenance. After your typicaly nightly check or whatever is type-appropriate, nothing in particular is needed from the pilots.

Additionally, maintenance guys tend to put things back the way they found them. That's their job. Then pilots check switch/pushbutton positions before every flight. That's our job. Then the plane systems like take-off config warning will check sensed positions. That's their job.
Last edited by Starlionblue on Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
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TheFlyingDisk
Posts: 2154
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:35 am

rbavfan wrote:
They have been in business 14 years and had 14 crashes. That's the accident rate. How many other carriers average 1 crasht per year of operations?


Lion Air's been in business for 18 years - they commenced operations in 2000. Plus they didn't have 14 crashes - they had 5. The rest are incidents which are commonly occurrening in other airlines, like runway excursions (check Delta, Southwest, American, Singapore...), hard landing (check JAL) and gear problems, among others.
I FLY KLM+ALASKA+QATAR+MALAYSIA+AIRASIA+MALINDO
 
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Starlionblue
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:40 am

cat3appr50 wrote:
God’s comfort be with the family and loved ones of those who lost their lives. From the F’Aware and F’Radar24 data, seems somewhat normal climb from takeoff to 2,050’ msl (at 260 Kn grd. spd.). Then an unusual, sudden descent to 1,475’ msl occurred, with ground speed increasing from 260 kn. to (a very high) 334 kn. At 1,475’ msl the aircraft then starts a climb again, ending around 5,350’ msl (at 290 kn grd. spd.). The flight then exhibits oscillations of altitude up and down and associated increase/decrease in ground speed around an altitude center of around 5,250’. Altitude (and associated speed) control was obviously a continuing challenge.

The major focus IMO would be what occurred during the initial climb at 2,050’ msl that set this climb anomaly in motion, finally resulting in total loss of altitude control resulting in impact with the ocean around 9 minutes later?

With that flight anomaly at 2,050’ msl with sudden significant loss in altitude to 1,475’ msl, and resulting very high ground speed, why then re-continue a climb (to 5,350’ msl), instead of immediately returning to the departure airport and attempting a landing. They were 5.4 NM away from WIII Rwy07R when at the 2,050’ msl anomaly. When they completely lost control they were around 31 NM from WIII.

Don’t know the time they (as being reported) noted technical issues with ATC, and what was said regarding the specific technical issue? Don’t see any airspeed and altitude data that would indicate a stall causing the total loss of control to ocean impact around 10 minutes after takeoff.


If you have unreliable airspeed, the initial objective is to stabilise the aircraft. Getting some altitude will give you some margin to the ocean or ground. If you can't keep the aircraft stable while straight and level, how will you keep it stable on final?

The airspeed data in the graphs above is taken from ADS-B data, which shows GPS derived groundspeed. If an aircraft stalls due to low speed, that is specifically airspeed. Also, aircraft can stall at any speed and any attitude.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
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Starlionblue
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:47 am

aden23 wrote:
HappyKasper wrote:
cat3appr50 wrote:
next thing they know they're breaking out of the clouds in an inverted dive with the waves rushing at them.


I don't understand. Are you suggesting that a pilot with 6,000 hours wouldn't know the difference between what it feels like when his aircraft is climbing, vs. when it's pointed straight at the ground?


The seat of your pants doesn't work well in large aircraft (and not much better in small ones). You'd be surprised how easily you can get disoriented even in the daytime and good conditions, especially when under a bit of stress. If you're in cloud, or it is night time, your senses will routinely try to fool you. For this reason, pilots are taught to trust their instruments And that's one of the main reasons why unreliable airspeed is such an insidious problem.

Korean Air Cargo 8509 is a textbook example of a pilot following faulty instrument data into the ground. At the time of impact, the aircraft was pitched down 40 degrees and banked left 90 degrees. You'd think the pilot would have "felt" this but evidently not. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Cargo_Flight_8509

aden23 wrote:
SoCalPilot wrote:
aden23 wrote:

Your body gives you false indications of what is really happening when you have no outside visual cues to back it up.

Most of the time when I'm flying in IMC I feel like I'm doing something completely different than what I actually am.


Fascinating, I never would have suspected this. Aren't there backup artificial horizons? Would all of these ever realistically fail at the same time?


Airliners have two primary flight displays (captain and FO) plus a backup. They are fed from independent air data and inertial systems so unlikely to all fail except in cases such as where all pitot tubes are left covered. However it can take time to realise they disagree because your training teaches you to trust your instruments, not the seat of your pants. And if they all disagree you have to decide which one to trust. An insidious issue.


luv2cattlecall wrote:
7BOEING7 wrote:
aden23 wrote:

Fascinating, I never would have suspected this. Aren't there backup artificial horizons? Would all of these ever realistically fail at the same time?


There are backups and flight in IMC is predicated on not all of them failing but.....stuff happens, just not very often if at all.


I understand the failure modes that could cause all the pitot-static system instruments on a plane to show false indications, but how often do all the artificial horizons in a commercial plane quit or show false info?


Artifical horizons are driven by the inertial units. Very unlikely you get a triple failure. Much more likely is an airspeed indication failure, since pitot tubes are literally pointing into the wind and can be clogged by non-removed covers, insects and Canada Geese.
Last edited by Starlionblue on Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:56 am, edited 2 times in total.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
rbavfan
Posts: 3633
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2015 5:53 am

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:51 am

ImperialEagle wrote:
YellowJ wrote:
Not to take away the focus from this sad situation; but is this a record from delivery to crash for any airline and/or aircraft made?


Well, the L-14, M-202, Comet, L-188 B-707 and B-727 come to mind.


Comet & Electra came apart after many flights.
 
iamtom
Posts: 12
Joined: Mon May 22, 2017 5:36 am

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:00 am

afterburner wrote:
GE90man wrote:
Flightsimboy wrote:

How does one find the camera or the device that recorded the video but not the plane. Have people gone so dull headed to believe anything on social media these days.

It's possible someone uploaded a live video as it was happening, such as the case when someone uploads to Facebook live. The video that was streamed is then saved online.

Uploading a video needs an internet connection. Lion Air is a low cost carrier. There are no WiFi service in its aircraft.


At 1500m above Jakarta they were still well within 3G/4G range so it's entirely possible. The turbulence video doing the rounds is clearly fake though. I imagine most passengers presumed turbulence until it was too late to react anyway.
 
MO11
Posts: 1515
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:38 am

rbavfan wrote:
ImperialEagle wrote:
YellowJ wrote:
Not to take away the focus from this sad situation; but is this a record from delivery to crash for any airline and/or aircraft made?


Well, the L-14, M-202, Comet, L-188 B-707 and B-727 come to mind.


Comet & Electra came apart after many flights.



First Braniff 707 on acceptance training flight.
 
INFINITI329
Posts: 2532
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:53 am

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:38 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Erebus wrote:
STLflyer wrote:
Yeah I'm sure they will since it's an American made aircraft.


A curious premise. Not to stray far from the topic but suppose (hypothetically) an accident involved an A320/A220 that was assembled in the US but operated by a non-US airline, would the NTSB take part in those investigations?


Most likely they would not. It may have been assembled in the US but it is not a product of the US.


Wait what? It's assembled in the United States but not a product of the United States? That doesn't make any sense.

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