Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
gia777
Posts: 145
Joined: Thu Dec 03, 2015 4:12 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:13 pm

I read on my local news. There are eyewitness said that they heard a 1x loud explosion 2km from location of the crash. From local fishermans boat.
Cheers,

GIA777 :coffee:
 
Boeingphan
Posts: 231
Joined: Fri Apr 01, 2016 10:29 am

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:16 pm

gia777 wrote:
I read on my local news. There are eyewitness said that they heard a 1x loud explosion 2km from location of the crash. From local fishermans boat.


Saw this a couple times but eye witness accounts are notoriously inaccurate.
 
User avatar
Carlos01
Posts: 172
Joined: Fri Aug 12, 2016 11:52 am

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:21 pm

keesje wrote:
No doubt their would have been working through those if airspeed was an issue. Something must have broken down after 5 minutes of recovery attempts at 270kts at 5000ft. Or they took a (in hindsight) fatal decision.

Image
ADS-B data plot. https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/614857-indonesian-aircraft-missing-off-jakarta-7.html


The mainstream news are saying that they still haven't found the hull / wreckage of the plane. Anything floating on the surface has been really small. If the speed data is even in the right ballpark (crashing nose down at 400knots), I doubt there will be any wreckage/hull of the plane.

It actually sounds a lot like this:

"The aircraft broke up on impact with the water and most of the debris sank to the ocean floor (a depth of 55 m, 180 ft). Some debris was found floating in the crash area and over the following weeks debris washed up on the nearby shorelines."

That's a direct quote from Wikipedia, SR111 article.
 
brocky120
Posts: 6
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 6:54 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:28 pm

Looking at the FR graph. It climbed a lot steeper than usual between 2,000 and 4,000 ft
 
Redd
Posts: 1310
Joined: Mon Jan 07, 2013 3:40 am

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:38 pm

SoCalPilot wrote:
Everyone on here is using the altitude deviations at 5000' as being indicative of control issues, I'd say it's most likely due to the pilots having to hand fly the airplane with no flight director while troubleshooting an emergency and preparing to return to the airport. They're very minor altitude deviations, consistent with trying to hand fly an airplane while being distracted with something.



I'd have to disagree, those are some serious deviations for handflying. Aircraft in proper trim should fly straight and level, or even in strong winds more straight and level than the data shows.
 
Okcflyer
Posts: 676
Joined: Sat May 23, 2015 11:10 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:38 pm

Is it possible the COG was aft of window? Do Lion Air even carry heavier than normal cargo? With a completely full cabin, it would be a bit challenging to end up out of the COG window.

Perhaps wrong weights were entered in FD and trim wasn’t set correct for weight?

RIP to the lost
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 19186
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:43 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
scbriml wrote:
iamtom wrote:
Just a note to add in Lion Air's defence regarding runway excursions. It's worth remembering that Indonesia is a tropical country with pretty extreme weather events. Most of these excursions happen in bad weather on shorter runways. The weather can change in those parts very fast and provide exceptionally challenging flying conditions.


This^

Runway excursions in Indonesia are not reserved just for Lion, either.

I spent a few days at CGK a few years ago (and even survived three Lion flights!). I was surprised to see flights operating 'normally' in a tremendous thunderstorm one afternoon. If that storm had hit Heathrow, the airport would have been closed.
I don't think you are helping Lion's case here.


I'm not aiming to help or otherwise, just passing on my observation. It wasn't just Lion operating 'normally' in/out of CGK in a heavy thunderstorm, it was all local airlines.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
User avatar
qf789
Moderator
Posts: 11138
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:42 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:46 pm

Australian engineers are suggesting a new theory being the 737MAX suffered from rear elevator problems on its previous flight

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/new ... -disaster/
Forum Moderator
 
User avatar
OA940
Posts: 1990
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 6:18 am

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:48 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
Erebus wrote:
STLflyer wrote:
Yeah I'm sure they will since it's an American made aircraft.


A curious premise. Not to stray far from the topic but suppose (hypothetically) an accident involved an A320/A220 that was assembled in the US but operated by a non-US airline, would the NTSB take part in those investigations?


Most likely they would not. It may have been assembled in the US but it is not a product of the US.


They actually would. The NTSB took part in the investigation of the Concorde crash before they knew about the CO plane's involvement. Any aircraft that has major parts manufactured in the US sees the involvement of the NTSB, or at least a representative of the company.
A350/CSeries = bae
 
User avatar
DL757NYC
Posts: 303
Joined: Wed Nov 02, 2016 6:07 am

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:26 pm

gia777 wrote:
I read on my local news. There are eyewitness said that they heard a 1x loud explosion 2km from location of the crash. From local fishermans boat.



Could have been the plane going supersonic on the easy down
 
Trin
Posts: 167
Joined: Mon May 02, 2011 4:45 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:34 pm

salttee wrote:
aden23 wrote:
Are you suggesting that a pilot with 6,000 hours wouldn't know the difference between what it feels like when his aircraft is climbing, vs. when it's pointed straight at the ground?

If they're in clouds with no visual reference and instrument failure, how would anybody be able to tell up from down?


Gravity. They aren't in orbit - 5,000ft or so does not change your body's perception of gravity. The notion that they could have ended up INVERTED or pointing towards the ground like a shuttlecock (WITHOUT THE PILOTS KNOWING) is just stupid.

Trin
 
Rara
Posts: 2309
Joined: Wed Jan 17, 2007 7:41 am

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:36 pm

keesje wrote:
Image

It seems from the data the crew disengaged the auto pilot at 20.25. The variation in speed & height after that indicates manual control. The autopilot would keep speed and/or level stable if the crew had set it. At 23.31 something happened. If something broke down, it would have most probable have been disabling controls or disabling the crew. If it was e.g. engines or electrical power, they would have tried to glide - ditch.


To my mind the sudden drop at 23:33:30 isn't getting the attention it deserves. To actually go into a steep (but short) descend, thereby speeding up to well above 300 kts GS, is super, super unusual in an initial climb. I would go so far to say this this never happens in a normal controlled flight. It must have put some serious negative G force on the passenger and crew as well. I don't know what happened there, but to me it's clear that serious problems were apparent by this moment at the latest. I also don't see how the autopilot could have been engaged through this drop. The autopilot certainly wouldn't have commanded it.

When I first saw the speed/altitude plot on FR24 yesterday, my initial reaction was "rear elevator issue". I will be very surprised if it turns out that the pilots had full and direct elevator control over the course of the flight.
Samson was a biblical tough guy, but his dad Samsonite was even more of a hard case.
 
Trin
Posts: 167
Joined: Mon May 02, 2011 4:45 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:38 pm

kraz911 wrote:
Hello all,
Unless there is a glaring failure somewhere in this accident that will be caught quickly, I feel it may be a difficult investigation to reconstruct...


Shouldn't be - the crash site is in shallow ocean and still within ATC communication. This isn't AF447 or MH370. The CVR and FDR will be found very soon if they have not already been - and 'reconstruction' of the accident will be unnecessary at that point.

Trin
 
expert7700
Posts: 27
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:30 am

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:42 pm

SoCalPilot wrote:
Everyone on here is using the altitude deviations at 5000'......They're very minor altitude deviations....


In addition to your observations (hand flying=minor variations), the speed/altitude charts posted are not scaled the same. The chart from a day prior is "zoomed out" 5x on the altitude scaling, and 2x on the speed scaling.

If the incident flight was viewed on the same 10,20,30,40k altitude scale and 200,400,600,800kts scale the variations would be drastically smoothed out on the chart.
 
User avatar
HappyKasper
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:27 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:47 pm

A330freak wrote:
And eyewitness accounts of the crash
Two fishermen who saw the crash from their boat out at sea told Reuters that the plane swayed slightly but made no noise as it fell, almost horizontal with its nose slightly down. There was an explosive sound as it plunged nose-first into the sea, and then there was a column of smoke.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSL3N1XA2G7


So if that's an accurate account, and eyewitness accounts rarely are, it sounds like it could've been a stall. But how would a stall have the extremely high ground speed indicated by the ADS-B data?

If we look at the "Airspeed Unreliable" procedure posted above for this aircraft...

Note: Stick shaker, overspeed warning and AIRSPEED LOW (as installed) alerts may sound erroneously or simultaneously.


That sounds awful - getting overspeed and a stick shaker at the same time, who knows how you'd react in the heat of the moment. That said, I assume this is trained for... and it really doesn't make sense in VMC (though as I've said above, I've seen "scattered" in METARs look a lot more like "overcast" in person on certain occasions)

Does anybody have particular knowledge regarding this elevator feedback system that was acting up? Could it have made the aircraft uncontrollable even with perfect situational awareness (VMC)?
 
Trin
Posts: 167
Joined: Mon May 02, 2011 4:45 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:19 pm

Rara wrote:
keesje wrote:
Image

It seems from the data the crew disengaged the auto pilot at 20.25. The variation in speed & height after that indicates manual control. The autopilot would keep speed and/or level stable if the crew had set it. At 23.31 something happened. If something broke down, it would have most probable have been disabling controls or disabling the crew. If it was e.g. engines or electrical power, they would have tried to glide - ditch.


To my mind the sudden drop at 23:33:30 isn't getting the attention it deserves. To actually go into a steep (but short) descend, thereby speeding up to well above 300 kts GS, is super, super unusual in an initial climb.


I've been studying the (admittedly sparse) data on the graph over yesterday and today intermittently on here. I'm confused by your post though - you reference the "sudden drop at 23:33:30". The timelog doesn't even go out that far before end of flight. Did you mean to reference the sudden drop at 23:22:40? This is the only steep but short descent that you could be referencing from the data, no?

Assuming that IS what you're referencing, I definitely agree with you that that climb out pattern, marred by that sudden drop then quick altitude gain, is definitely not receiving the attention it should be. I'm also curious what some on here think of the "topping out" after the climb that occurred AFTER the sudden drop at 23:22:40. Aircraft maxes altitude out at around 5,500ft, with an airspeed indicated to have decreased to ~290kts. I can only assume that after such a sudden (possibly knee-jerk) climb after an unexpected (possible panic-inducing) altitude loss, that the plane's AOA was fairly high at the zenith of said climb.

High AOA at 5,500ft with an airspeed having bled off to around ~290kts.......

Trin
 
micstatic
Posts: 771
Joined: Fri Jul 20, 2001 10:07 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:30 pm

Trin wrote:
salttee wrote:
aden23 wrote:
Are you suggesting that a pilot with 6,000 hours wouldn't know the difference between what it feels like when his aircraft is climbing, vs. when it's pointed straight at the ground?

If they're in clouds with no visual reference and instrument failure, how would anybody be able to tell up from down?


Gravity. They aren't in orbit - 5,000ft or so does not change your body's perception of gravity. The notion that they could have ended up INVERTED or pointing towards the ground like a shuttlecock (WITHOUT THE PILOTS KNOWING) is just stupid.

Trin



You must be new to aviation. Unfortunately their is a large cache of aviation accidents where pilots have been doing the opposite of what they thought they were doing. That's why the saying "Trust your instruments" came along. I would post examples, but there are so many it's not necessary at all.
S340,DH8,AT7,CR2/7,E135/45/170/190,319,320,717,732,733,734,735,737,738,744,752,762,763,764,772,M80,M90
 
micstatic
Posts: 771
Joined: Fri Jul 20, 2001 10:07 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:32 pm

Trin wrote:
salttee wrote:
aden23 wrote:
Are you suggesting that a pilot with 6,000 hours wouldn't know the difference between what it feels like when his aircraft is climbing, vs. when it's pointed straight at the ground?

If they're in clouds with no visual reference and instrument failure, how would anybody be able to tell up from down?


Gravity. They aren't in orbit - 5,000ft or so does not change your body's perception of gravity. The notion that they could have ended up INVERTED or pointing towards the ground like a shuttlecock (WITHOUT THE PILOTS KNOWING) is just stupid.

Trin



You must be new to aviation. Unfortunately their is a large cache of aviation accidents where pilots have been doing the opposite of what they thought they were doing. That's why the saying "Trust your instruments" came along. I would post examples, but there are so many it's not necessary at all.
S340,DH8,AT7,CR2/7,E135/45/170/190,319,320,717,732,733,734,735,737,738,744,752,762,763,764,772,M80,M90
 
mxaxai
Posts: 2011
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:29 am

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:32 pm

Trin wrote:
salttee wrote:
aden23 wrote:
Are you suggesting that a pilot with 6,000 hours wouldn't know the difference between what it feels like when his aircraft is climbing, vs. when it's pointed straight at the ground?

If they're in clouds with no visual reference and instrument failure, how would anybody be able to tell up from down?


Gravity. They aren't in orbit - 5,000ft or so does not change your body's perception of gravity. The notion that they could have ended up INVERTED or pointing towards the ground like a shuttlecock (WITHOUT THE PILOTS KNOWING) is just stupid.

Trin

Gravity is just an acceleration. There are many causes for acceleration, especially inside a maneuvering aircraft. And without an external reference that allows your body to "calibrate" its sensors, those sensors lose track very quickly. The number of pilots who flew their perfectly fine aircraft into a weird attitude, and then into the ground without ever realising their mistake, shows you how easy it is.
 
nine4nine
Posts: 648
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:44 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:34 pm

Is MX contracted out at DPS for Lion or is it an in house station?
717, 727-100, 727-200, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 742, 748, 752, 753, 762, 763, 772, 77W, 787-10, DC9, MD80/88/90, DC10, 319, 220-300, 320, 321, 321n, 332, 333, CS100, CRJ200, Q400, E175, E190, ERJ145, EMB120
 
User avatar
HappyKasper
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:27 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:35 pm

I pulled the granular ADS-B data from FlightRadar24 (which you can find on their blog post about this accident) and plotted the last 20 seconds of data (23:31:36Z - 23:31:56Z) - which has been done above. Note that at the start of this graph, altitude is about 4775 feet (even though altitude is not plotted here, just vertical speed), meaning that this plots nothing but the final dive.

What I was interested in here is airspeed - since the ADS-B data only shows groundspeed, I plotted that in blue, and then took the square sum (sqrt(a^2 + b^2)) of the groundspeed in knots and vertical speed in knots to find an approximate airspeed in KTAS, assuming still air. That's plotted in grey. It shows an estimated airspeed of 472 KTAS at the time of the final ADS-B return.

Image

The above is data derived from FlightRadar24's ADS-B readings - the below is speculation/commentary

First, how reliable is this data? Are these returns timestamped by the ADS-B OUT in the plane, or are they timestamped when they hit FlightRadar's servers? If it's the latter, different receivers in their network could have different latencies, which could make this data slightly scrambled, or at least not fully trustworthy when it comes to timescale (e.g. that final 31,000 fpm vertical speed is calculated off two returns showing a 1000 foot difference between returns 1.6 seconds apart).

My instinct is to not trust this data - it doesn't make much sense. But I don't want to disqualify it unless someone who's familiar with FlightRadar's systems can explain a plausible reason it would be wrong.

What seems most unreasonable is returns at around 45 seconds past the minute that show the aircraft in a 7000 fpm climb while all the data around shows a 9000 fpm descent. This is due to a return at 45.159 seconds showing an altitude of 3650 feet, while a return at 45.232 seconds shows an altitude of 3700 feet... if we exclude that small difference as noise, the data is actually pretty smooth with a rapidly accelerating descent that reaches 13,000 fpm at 48 seconds past the minute, and 30,000 fpm at 56 seconds past the minute. This is well past gravitational acceleration, but would only require the 472 knot airspeed mentioned above if the airplane is actually diving for the ground at high throttle.
 
User avatar
GE90man
Posts: 223
Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2016 9:10 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:37 pm

Trin wrote:
salttee wrote:
aden23 wrote:
Are you suggesting that a pilot with 6,000 hours wouldn't know the difference between what it feels like when his aircraft is climbing, vs. when it's pointed straight at the ground?

If they're in clouds with no visual reference and instrument failure, how would anybody be able to tell up from down?


Gravity. They aren't in orbit - 5,000ft or so does not change your body's perception of gravity. The notion that they could have ended up INVERTED or pointing towards the ground like a shuttlecock (WITHOUT THE PILOTS KNOWING) is just stupid.

Trin


Yes, it’s stupid until you experience it for yourself. It’s a real thing that has been seen in many past accidents.
 
Eagle15
Posts: 74
Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:24 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:42 pm

GE90man wrote:
Trin wrote:
salttee wrote:
If they're in clouds with no visual reference and instrument failure, how would anybody be able to tell up from down?


Gravity. They aren't in orbit - 5,000ft or so does not change your body's perception of gravity. The notion that they could have ended up INVERTED or pointing towards the ground like a shuttlecock (WITHOUT THE PILOTS KNOWING) is just stupid.

Trin


Yes, it’s stupid until you experience it for yourself. It’s a real thing that has been seen in many past accidents.


Agreed.
Reminds me of flight training practicing unusual attitudes partial panel.....Very easy to get disoriented and you CAN NOT rely on your sense of gravity to get back straight and level.
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 15172
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:52 pm

Starlionblue wrote:
The autopilot wouldn't keep speed and altitude if it wasn't receiving reliable airspeed data. Which is why the first line of an unreliable airspeed procedure is "disconnect AP".


The 737NG QRH has this


Airspeed Unreliable

Condition:

The pitch attitude is not consistent with the phase of flight, altitude, thrust and weight, or noise or low frequency buffeting is experienced.

Objective:

To establish the normal pitch attitude and thrust setting for the phase of flight.

1 Adjust the airplane attitude and thrust. Maintain airplane control.

2 PROBE HEAT switches . . . . . . . . . . . . . Check ON

3 Cross check the MACH/AIRSPEED indicators.

4 Cross check the IRS and FMC ground speed and winds to determine airspeed accuracy if indicated airspeed is questionable.

Note: Erroneous or unreliable airspeed indications may be caused by blocked or frozen pitot-static system(s), or a severely damaged or missing radome.

5 Attitude and thrust information is located in the Performance Inflight section.

FCTM

Airspeed Unreliable

Airspeed Unreliable

Unreliable airspeed indications can result from blocking or freezing of the pitot/static system or a severely damaged or missing radome. When the ram air inlet to the pitot head is blocked, pressure in the probe is released through the drain holes and the airspeed slowly drops to zero. If the ram air inlet and the probe drain holes are both blocked, pressure trapped within the system reacts unpredictably. The pressure may increase through expansion, decrease through contraction, or remain constant. In all cases, the airspeed indications would be abnormal. This could mean increasing indicated airspeed in climb, decreasing indicated airspeed in descent, or unpredictable indicated airspeed in cruise.

If the flight crew is aware of the problem, flight without the benefit of valid airspeed information can be safely conducted and should present little difficulty. Early recognition of erroneous airspeed indications requires familiarity with the interrelationship of attitude, thrust setting, and airspeed. A delay in recognition could result in loss of airplane control.

The flight crew should be familiar with the approximate pitch attitude for each flight maneuver. For example, climb performance is based on maintaining a particular airspeed or Mach number. This results in a specific body attitude that varies little with gross weight and altitude. Any significant change from the body attitude required to maintain a desired airspeed should alert the flight crew to a potential problem.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4346
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 3:15 pm

Eye witnesses are important in any investigation. They are often accurate. What an eye witness should not do is reconstruct what they saw. "Just the facts, ma'am" Skilled investigators are able to take disparate eye witness data, assess its likely quality, and put it into context. And note: the fishermen are not explaining why the plane crashed, they are simply stating what they saw. Useful, but not infallible data.

Two fishermen who saw the crash from their boat out at sea told Reuters that the plane swayed slightly but made no noise as it fell, almost horizontal with its nose slightly down. There was an explosive sound as it plunged nose-first into the sea, and then there was a column of smoke



Should we fly Lion? What are the risks of alternative transportation, how badly do we need to get where we are going, how comfortable are we with various risks?
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
dragon6172
Posts: 1128
Joined: Sat Jul 14, 2007 9:56 am

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 3:21 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Eye witnesses are important in any investigation. They are often accurate.

Eyewitnesses are notoriously inaccurate. Important, yes.
Phrogs Phorever
 
User avatar
afterburner
Posts: 1459
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 11:38 am

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 3:26 pm

iamtom wrote:
afterburner wrote:
GE90man wrote:
It's possible someone uploaded a live video as it was happening, such as the case when someone uploads to Facebook live. The video that was streamed is then saved online.

Uploading a video needs an internet connection. Lion Air is a low cost carrier. There are no WiFi service in its aircraft.


At 1500m above Jakarta they were still well within 3G/4G range so it's entirely possible. The turbulence video doing the rounds is clearly fake though. I imagine most passengers presumed turbulence until it was too late to react anyway.

It's possible although rather unlikely, knowing the quality of the cellular service there. :)
 
Etheereal
Posts: 374
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 11:44 am

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 3:33 pm

ikramerica wrote:
Pitot failure is not uncommon. I recall after the AF incident, there were many incidents discussed where pitot tubes on various types had failed and the pilots correctly dealt with the problem.

Also of note was the AF crew was experienced but still failed to recognize the problem correctly. So experience level isn’t necessarily going to predict the outcome. The Lion crew in this case had plenty of hours.


No, what happened is that the pitot failure (icing) was already known but the effects were severly misunderstood and underestimated, specially that AF had no training whatsoever for those scenarios.

Also they apparently failed to train their pilots in alternate law config, which they CAN and WILL stall a plane under those conditions.
 
dragon6172
Posts: 1128
Joined: Sat Jul 14, 2007 9:56 am

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 3:38 pm

I looked through flightradar24 data on several flight tracks that used the same departure from CGK. Everyone flew the runway heading to an altitude of ~3200 feet and then began the left hand turn. The incident aircraft climbed to ~1600 feet and started its turn. Could have been an early turn instruction from ATC or some other reason, but it could also be that the altitude indications in the cockpit were already showing ~3200 feet.

Also, keep in mind that everything on the altitude / airspeed graphs before 23:24.5 is all happening during a 180 degree left hand turn.
Phrogs Phorever
 
Rara
Posts: 2309
Joined: Wed Jan 17, 2007 7:41 am

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 4:18 pm

Trin wrote:
Rara wrote:
keesje wrote:
I've been studying the (admittedly sparse) data on the graph over yesterday and today intermittently on here. I'm confused by your post though - you reference the "sudden drop at 23:33:30". The timelog doesn't even go out that far before end of flight. Did you mean to reference the sudden drop at 23:22:40? This is the only steep but short descent that you could be referencing from the data, no?



Yes! I mistyped. Thanks for pointing it out.

As for the topping out at about 5,500 ft, I'm not sure the aircraft necessarily had a high AOA at that point. The climb to 5,000 is extremely steep, but can be explained by the excess speed that the earlier drop created. Assuming that the engines would be a fixed climb power at that point, which would be typical for an initial climb, there would have been an excessive amount of energy for the aircraft to utilize.

All in all, I find the speeds surprisingly high. Admittedly they're ground speeds and indicated airspeed would have been somewhat lower, but according to http://indoavis.co.id/main/tas.html not much lower at this altitude. 300 kts is really fast - planes aren't usually supposed to fly faster than 250 kts IAS below 10,000 ft, unless cleared by ATC, and especially an aircraft with apparent technical issues would be expected to slow down.

I'm not sure what IAS max for the 737 is, but the 340 kts they did early in the flight must be close. And the last recorded speeds far above it, if they are reliable.
Samson was a biblical tough guy, but his dad Samsonite was even more of a hard case.
 
User avatar
longhauler
Posts: 6488
Joined: Sat Mar 06, 2004 12:00 am

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 4:22 pm

rbavfan wrote:
Comet & Electra came apart after many flights.

When thinking about both the Comet and the Electra, I can see how one first thinks about the metal fatigue problems of the former and whirl mode problems of the latter, but ... don't forget a Comet was lost on a delivery flight of Canadian Pacific Airlines and an Electra was lost at LGA (AAL 320) within weeks of introduction.
Just because I stopped arguing, doesn't mean I think you are right. It just means I gave up!
 
gia777
Posts: 145
Joined: Thu Dec 03, 2015 4:12 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 4:42 pm

I am booked for this friday flight to CGK from SUB with Garuda 777. No way I am taking Lion and never will. I know my country has a very bad reputation regarding airline safety. My trust only with Garuda Indonesia - Citilink - Sriwijaya (yes). These 3 airlines you can count on them. As for Batik Airlines, they are still under Lion Group. Regardless what happened to the Lion accident, still, there is no excuse that the plane suffered technical issues the day before and they did not perform the repair for whatever reason 100% otherwise the accident will not occurred. Sure, they could say they performed the safety check under boeing guidelines...but who knows? Just like Adam Air, they notorious in cheating the safety check. Of course the Lion Air management will say we did the repair and the plane was good to go. Like hell they gonna say...yes we flew the broken plane. The amount compensation given by the Lion Air also a joke... $500 per passenger for burial process and $1000 for immediate cash relief and $5000 for accident compensation. I still can't believe the government did not shut down this airlines long time ago. If Qantas never involved in accident means they have a very solid system in safety check. So again there is no excuse for this accident. Avoid Lion at all cost!
Cheers,

GIA777 :coffee:
 
gia777
Posts: 145
Joined: Thu Dec 03, 2015 4:12 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 4:52 pm

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/indonesia-pla ... 28527.html
This statement alone is a huge evidence and enough said about the condition of the previous flight

Alon Soetanto told TVOne the plane dropped suddenly several times in the first few minutes of its flight.

"About three to eight minutes after it took off, I felt like the plane was losing power and unable to rise. That happened several times during the flight," he said. "We felt like in a roller coaster. Some passengers began to panic and vomit."

His account is consistent with data from flight-tracking sites that show erratic speed, altitude and direction in the minutes after the jet took off. A similar pattern is also seen in data pinged from Monday's fatal flight. Safety experts cautioned, however, that the data must be checked for accuracy against the plane's "black boxes," which officials are confident will be recovered.
Cheers,

GIA777 :coffee:
 
shahjees
Posts: 1
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2009 8:29 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 4:56 pm

The same with AF47 incident, I am sure some faulty Air Data Inertial Reference Unit (ADIRU) among the things that could have happened

Image
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3527
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 5:04 pm

gia777 wrote:
I know my country has a very bad reputation regarding airline safety.


To be really fair to Indonesia - it's part of the growing pain. Hack, go back to 90s and you got the (un)holy duo of Korean Air and China Airlines literally trying to out fight each other as to who crash more planes :sigh: , or even Garuda (Noticed how they're all in Skyteam now :duck: ). GA themselves have came a long way, and hopefully, the rest of Indonesian aviation industry does also.

RIP to those that perished in the accident. And depends on the result of the investigation, hopefully lessons are learned the really hard (and the worst possible) way just so accident like this never ever happen again. :tombstone:

P.S. I remembered that back when JT annouced that they'll order 200 737MAX, someone on a.net joked about how "Lion Air will probably need that many planes at the rate that they're having accidents/incidents", sadly, it didn't take long at all :cry2:
Last edited by zakuivcustom on Tue Oct 30, 2018 5:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
PlymSpotter
Posts: 10742
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2004 7:32 am

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 5:05 pm

gia777 wrote:
Alon Soetanto told TVOne the plane dropped suddenly several times in the first few minutes of its flight.

"About three to eight minutes after it took off, I felt like the plane was losing power and unable to rise. That happened several times during the flight," he said. "We felt like in a roller coaster. Some passengers began to panic and vomit."


With respect, these accounts are subjective - this description could be applied to any turbulence incident, which are frequent in the tropical air around Indonesia. It's the raw data which needs to be analysed to identify any similarity.
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 5639
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 5:11 pm

Trin wrote:
salttee wrote:
aden23 wrote:
Are you suggesting that a pilot with 6,000 hours wouldn't know the difference between what it feels like when his aircraft is climbing, vs. when it's pointed straight at the ground?

If they're in clouds with no visual reference and instrument failure, how would anybody be able to tell up from down?


Gravity. They aren't in orbit - 5,000ft or so does not change your body's perception of gravity. The notion that they could have ended up INVERTED or pointing towards the ground like a shuttlecock (WITHOUT THE PILOTS KNOWING) is just stupid.

Trin


As a private pilot with about 1200 hours of experience I can assure you that without visual reference or reliable instruments you will have no idea what the aircraft is doing. If you are a passenger and have no reference the pilot can do a barrel roll and you will never realize it. I remember vividly an experience during my primary training. My instructor would put me “under the hood” (blocking my view so I could only see the instruments) for about 10 minutes each flight. But one day he decided to do it for a half hour. After about 20 minutes I suddenly had the strongest feeling that I was in a descending left turn, but my instruments said we were straight and level. I would never have believed it had I not experienced it, and I was so glad to have first experienced it in good weather with an instructor next to me.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
Rara
Posts: 2309
Joined: Wed Jan 17, 2007 7:41 am

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 5:45 pm

PlymSpotter wrote:
gia777 wrote:
Alon Soetanto told TVOne the plane dropped suddenly several times in the first few minutes of its flight.

"About three to eight minutes after it took off, I felt like the plane was losing power and unable to rise. That happened several times during the flight," he said. "We felt like in a roller coaster. Some passengers began to panic and vomit."


With respect, these accounts are subjective - this description could be applied to any turbulence incident, which are frequent in the tropical air around Indonesia. It's the raw data which needs to be analysed to identify any similarity.


You're absolutely right. And yet he's not wrong. :shock: If you check the FR24 record of the aforementioned flight, you see the same drops in altitude, twice even:

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airc ... p#1e5eb90c

Including a drop from 5,500 ft to 4,625 ft which caused ground speed to rise from 280kts to 320kts, much too fast for that altitude.

This is certainly more than peculiar. Could it be weather, I wondered, but the archived TAF (METAR not available) from that evening shows pleasant weather.

Then I checked several other flight paths of narrowbody aircraft that departed from Denpasar at about the same time. As you would expect they all show smooth and continuous climbs, with no indication of the the roller-coaster behaviour of PK-LQP.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flig ... 5#1e5edafb
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flig ... 1#1e5ee2b3
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flig ... 6#1e5ec152
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flig ... 9#1e5ef7d1
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flig ... 8#1e5edf4d
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flig ... 6#1e5ed934

Also if you go back on PL-LQP's flight history prior to Oct 28th, you don't find any abnormal behaviour. But its second-before-last flight certainly displays the same anomalies that were present on the doomed flight.

It would appear that this passenger's account is absolutely spot on. I'm more than a bit baffled of this.
Samson was a biblical tough guy, but his dad Samsonite was even more of a hard case.
 
User avatar
enilria
Posts: 10284
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 6:03 pm

zeke wrote:
Starlionblue wrote:
The autopilot wouldn't keep speed and altitude if it wasn't receiving reliable airspeed data. Which is why the first line of an unreliable airspeed procedure is "disconnect AP".


The 737NG QRH has this


Airspeed Unreliable

Condition:

The pitch attitude is not consistent with the phase of flight, altitude, thrust and weight, or noise or low frequency buffeting is experienced.

Objective:

To establish the normal pitch attitude and thrust setting for the phase of flight.

1 Adjust the airplane attitude and thrust. Maintain airplane control.

2 PROBE HEAT switches . . . . . . . . . . . . . Check ON

3 Cross check the MACH/AIRSPEED indicators.

4 Cross check the IRS and FMC ground speed and winds to determine airspeed accuracy if indicated airspeed is questionable.

Note: Erroneous or unreliable airspeed indications may be caused by blocked or frozen pitot-static system(s), or a severely damaged or missing radome.

5 Attitude and thrust information is located in the Performance Inflight section.

FCTM

Airspeed Unreliable

Airspeed Unreliable

Unreliable airspeed indications can result from blocking or freezing of the pitot/static system or a severely damaged or missing radome. When the ram air inlet to the pitot head is blocked, pressure in the probe is released through the drain holes and the airspeed slowly drops to zero. If the ram air inlet and the probe drain holes are both blocked, pressure trapped within the system reacts unpredictably. The pressure may increase through expansion, decrease through contraction, or remain constant. In all cases, the airspeed indications would be abnormal. This could mean increasing indicated airspeed in climb, decreasing indicated airspeed in descent, or unpredictable indicated airspeed in cruise.

If the flight crew is aware of the problem, flight without the benefit of valid airspeed information can be safely conducted and should present little difficulty. Early recognition of erroneous airspeed indications requires familiarity with the interrelationship of attitude, thrust setting, and airspeed. A delay in recognition could result in loss of airplane control.

The flight crew should be familiar with the approximate pitch attitude for each flight maneuver. For example, climb performance is based on maintaining a particular airspeed or Mach number. This results in a specific body attitude that varies little with gross weight and altitude. Any significant change from the body attitude required to maintain a desired airspeed should alert the flight crew to a potential problem.

I have two theories based on the maintenance log:
1) The pilots thought the aircraft was stalling because of the faulty IAS reporting and put the aircraft into several dives in order to regain speed. Essentially they crashed the aircraft thinking they were in a stall condition when they weren't.
2) Elevator failure

Or it could be a mix of both that caused the pilots to miss the IAS error.
 
User avatar
AlexA340B777
Posts: 163
Joined: Sun Oct 05, 2008 4:37 am

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 6:24 pm

http://avherald.com/h?article=4bf90724&opt=0

Interesting updates this evening:

„On Oct 30th 2018 the Ministry reported that an unscheduled inspection of Lionair aircraft has been conducted and indicated there will be sanctions. The nature of the sanctions is being coordinated with the KNKT. A first instruction to inspect all aircraft have already been issued to Lionair.“

„On Oct 30th 2018 the airline indicated they are going to accept whatever sanctions will be issued including a grounding. As of current inspections of all aircraft under supervision by the Ministry are underway.“
6 continents, 85 countries, 746 flights, 90 airlines, 37 aircraft types
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 13259
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 6:26 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Eye witnesses are important in any investigation. They are often accurate. What an eye witness should not do is reconstruct what they saw. "Just the facts, ma'am" Skilled investigators are able to take disparate eye witness data, assess its likely quality, and put it into context. And note: the fishermen are not explaining why the plane crashed, they are simply stating what they saw. Useful, but not infallible data.

Two fishermen who saw the crash from their boat out at sea told Reuters that the plane swayed slightly but made no noise as it fell, almost horizontal with its nose slightly down. There was an explosive sound as it plunged nose-first into the sea, and then there was a column of smoke


They didn't say they saw a "big fireball in the sky" or an "engine on fire" so indeed their account seem more reliable than average.

No sound during descent could be explained by the distance, weather, and position of the aircraft relative to the fishermen.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
cumulushumilis
Posts: 230
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 8:49 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 6:31 pm

What I know about the MAX is that, it is capable of recording a crazy amount of data through the ONS and the Enhanced digital flight data acquisition
unit (DFDAU), depending on what airborne data links are used the data is almost available real time. I wonder what if any air to ground data links were established with that particular aircraft and was any data transmitted? It seems as though as a lot of people have turned into amateur investigators relying solely on ADS B data to make sense of this disaster. I would rather wait and see wait is understood from other sources of data.
 
User avatar
Moose135
Posts: 3186
Joined: Mon Oct 04, 2004 11:27 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 6:34 pm

gia777 wrote:
Regardless what happened to the Lion accident, still, there is no excuse that the plane suffered technical issues the day before and they did not perform the repair for whatever reason 100% otherwise the accident will not occurred. Sure, they could say they performed the safety check under boeing guidelines...but who knows?

You don't know what caused the crash (Regardless what happened) yet you know that the crash was a result of not actually performing the repairs/checks they said they did after the prior flight? How is you know so much more than the investigators, many of whom likely haven't arrived at the accident site yet?

gia777 wrote:
The amount compensation given by the Lion Air also a joke... $500 per passenger for burial process and $1000 for immediate cash relief and $5000 for accident compensation.

Without checking, I believe those amounts are those specified in ICAO and other aviation agreements. What is finally paid out to the families of victims (and who pays it) won't be known until after the investigation finds the reasons behind the crash.
KC-135 - Passing gas and taking names!
 
zakelwe
Posts: 33
Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:36 am

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 6:35 pm

enilria wrote:
zeke wrote:
Starlionblue wrote:
The autopilot wouldn't keep speed and altitude if it wasn't receiving reliable airspeed data. Which is why the first line of an unreliable airspeed procedure is "disconnect AP".


The 737NG QRH has this


Airspeed Unreliable

Condition:

The pitch attitude is not consistent with the phase of flight, altitude, thrust and weight, or noise or low frequency buffeting is experienced.

Objective:

To establish the normal pitch attitude and thrust setting for the phase of flight.

1 Adjust the airplane attitude and thrust. Maintain airplane control.

2 PROBE HEAT switches . . . . . . . . . . . . . Check ON

3 Cross check the MACH/AIRSPEED indicators.

4 Cross check the IRS and FMC ground speed and winds to determine airspeed accuracy if indicated airspeed is questionable.

Note: Erroneous or unreliable airspeed indications may be caused by blocked or frozen pitot-static system(s), or a severely damaged or missing radome.

5 Attitude and thrust information is located in the Performance Inflight section.

FCTM

Airspeed Unreliable

Airspeed Unreliable

Unreliable airspeed indications can result from blocking or freezing of the pitot/static system or a severely damaged or missing radome. When the ram air inlet to the pitot head is blocked, pressure in the probe is released through the drain holes and the airspeed slowly drops to zero. If the ram air inlet and the probe drain holes are both blocked, pressure trapped within the system reacts unpredictably. The pressure may increase through expansion, decrease through contraction, or remain constant. In all cases, the airspeed indications would be abnormal. This could mean increasing indicated airspeed in climb, decreasing indicated airspeed in descent, or unpredictable indicated airspeed in cruise.

If the flight crew is aware of the problem, flight without the benefit of valid airspeed information can be safely conducted and should present little difficulty. Early recognition of erroneous airspeed indications requires familiarity with the interrelationship of attitude, thrust setting, and airspeed. A delay in recognition could result in loss of airplane control.

The flight crew should be familiar with the approximate pitch attitude for each flight maneuver. For example, climb performance is based on maintaining a particular airspeed or Mach number. This results in a specific body attitude that varies little with gross weight and altitude. Any significant change from the body attitude required to maintain a desired airspeed should alert the flight crew to a potential problem.

I have two theories based on the maintenance log:
1) The pilots thought the aircraft was stalling because of the faulty IAS reporting and put the aircraft into several dives in order to regain speed. Essentially they crashed the aircraft thinking they were in a stall condition when they weren't.
2) Elevator failure

Or it could be a mix of both that caused the pilots to miss the IAS error.


It is concerning that both reported faults can lead to serious problems even on their own. However we still will not know until the plane is found and recorders retrieved. I was hoping it would have been found by now is fairly shallow water to start the process and also for the families benefit. Hopefully that will happen soon.

I know things have moved on but can someone remind me of the local weather again at the time of the incident as I have lost track? Many thanks in advance.

Finally this a good summary of spacial disorientation in flight. https://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/Spa ... rientation
 
jreuschl
Posts: 412
Joined: Tue Jul 28, 2009 3:04 am

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 6:44 pm

If the previous flight had issues on take off, should that flight not have diverted back to original airport vs. continuing on in flight?
 
User avatar
DeltaMD90
Posts: 8928
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 7:58 pm

Rara wrote:
I'm not sure what IAS max for the 737 is, but the 340 kts they did early in the flight must be close. And the last recorded speeds far above it, if they are reliable.


For the P-8A it was a max of 340 knots IAS, and most of the limits for the P-8A are carried over from the civilian 737s. I would imagine the MAX would have the same limit.

Keep in mind this is IAS and that chart is GS, and I really don't know the accuracy of the values on that chart, but seeing them hit 340 kts and then slow down stuck in my mind. I do NOT like the speculate—I think the best thing to do in these cases is to wait for more info—but I wouldn't be surprised if something happened and they lost situational awareness of airspeed (if they even had airspeed displayed correctly) and either the clacker or red zipper on their displays (if working correctly) caught their attention and then they started a climb (a climb that was also meant to bleed off airspeed to a more normal airspeed, which in effect causes a much higher vertical speed until the excess speed bleeds off.)

Please don't read too much into that. Not speculation on my part, just a quick random thought that jumped into my mind. For all we know their displays or IAS never hit their max of 340 IAS (assuming that is indeed their max IAS)
 
PotatoPappas
Posts: 105
Joined: Mon Jun 08, 2015 3:57 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 8:09 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
KICT wrote:
This airline needs to be shut down. They are out of control.


And I’m sorry but what caused this crash?



It's not only this crash, they have a history of terrible CRM and safety.
 
PotatoPappas
Posts: 105
Joined: Mon Jun 08, 2015 3:57 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 8:12 pm

jreuschl wrote:
If the previous flight had issues on take off, should that flight not have diverted back to original airport vs. continuing on in flight?


It depends on how bad the issue was. In my opinion, they should have but hey ho its Lion Air.
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9524
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 8:15 pm

PotatoPappas wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
KICT wrote:
This airline needs to be shut down. They are out of control.


And I’m sorry but what caused this crash?



It's not only this crash, they have a history of terrible CRM and safety.


Let's just let it go. You've got your mind made up so what more is there to discuss?
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
spacecadet
Posts: 3573
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2001 3:36 am

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

Tue Oct 30, 2018 8:24 pm

zakelwe wrote:
I know things have moved on but can someone remind me of the local weather again at the time of the incident as I have lost track? Many thanks in advance.


Just search for METAR in the thread search box. But here it is:

WIII 282330Z 16003KT 8000 SCT020 27/25 Q1010 NOSIG

3 knot winds, good visibility, scattered clouds, 27 celsius temp, 25 celsius dew point. A bit warm and humid, but otherwise good flying weather.

I have no idea how accurate any of these reports about maintenance logs or passenger reports of the problems on the previous flight are, but the theory of an elevator problem seems to fit the circumstances of both flights a lot better than blocked pitot or static ports.

It's almost equally as hard to believe that this would be the cause of the accident as blocked ports would be due to the age of the airplane, but my question would be what could theoretically cause this considering the airplane's age - it seems impossible that it would be something like a stripped jackscrew or a lack of grease in the assembly as we've seen in other accidents.
I'm tired of being a wanna-be league bowler. I wanna be a league bowler!

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos