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speedking
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Sat Nov 17, 2018 3:55 am

patplan wrote:
I am coming back to the CAPT log of the next-to-last flight of Lion Air PK-LQP...

===============CAPT LOG JT047=================
A: PK LQP, B737 Max 8

D: 28.10.2018

O: Airspeed unreliable and alt disagree shown after take off.
STS was also running to the wrong direction, suspected because of speed difference. Identified that CAPT instrument was unreliable and handover control to FO. Continue NNC of Airspeed Unreliable and ALT disagree. Decide to continue flying to CGK at FL280, landed safely rwy 25L

R: DPS CGK LNI 043

E: AFML

R: Capt William Martinus/133031, FO M Fulki Naufan/ 144291
===============================================


I put the CAPT description of STS behavior in BOLDFACE with huge Font because, IMO, he [and/or his FO] didn't realize that they had just encountered the stealthy and secretive [and "counter-intuitive"] MCAS in action. He tried to explain this strange trimming behavior as STS "running to the wrong direction suspected because of speed difference". Unbeknownst to him, he had actually confirmed and experienced the MCAS weird/counter-intuitiveness trait.

Image

The fact that the CAPT, the FO had saved the aircraft [and ALL passengers] by consulting the NNC for "Airspeed Unreliable and ALT disagree", as explained in the log, will strongly suggest that whatever malfunctions on Lion Air PK-LQP's last flight were something different, something more complex. The crews of that fateful flight would've had the chance to study the JT047 log and had understood what the problems had been and how to overcome them as explained by the log. They might've followed that same procedures as pointed out by the previous crew, but, alas, they couldn't save the aircraft by using that same method.

The FDR shows airspeed indicator problems for the PK-LQP's last 4 flights. Yet, replacing the AOA sensor in DPS before its penultimate flight didn't solve that problem at all. Problems still persisted. Furthermore, flushing the pitot tube before its last flight also failed to fix that airspeed unreliability. Even more puzzling was apparently replacing the AOA sensor introduced an additional problem: AOA disagreement by about 20 Degree. More and more, these circumstances seem to point to either connection/cabling problems or a flight control system malfunction because all supposedly relevant remedies didn't seem to have worked at all.


In automation systems generally, multiple sensor faults at the same time typically point to a fault in the data acquisition unit itself or that a fault in one sensor / cabling disturbs the units power supply also to other signals connected to the same unit. In new systems, with low running hours, cabling is mostly in good condition and problems are often a result from wrong connections made during manufacturing the system.
 
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7BOEING7
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Sat Nov 17, 2018 4:02 am

RandallStephens wrote:
"Elevated load factors" and "flaps up" to me says higher mach numbers than the flight radar data suggests . So it seems that load factor, mach, flaps setting, and angle of attack all feed into the flight computer to actuate this system. If mcas did activate, it seems to me that there was an error in the main box, hardware or software, not the sensors. Be curious what the fdr recorded.


"Elevated load factors" relate to steep turns where there is a "g" factor. From the WSJ article it looks like a failure of one AOA probe could indicate a stalled condition tripping the MCAS so they're looking at a software fix to prevent the MCAS from activating based on a wide disparity in AOA data.
 
maint123
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Sat Nov 17, 2018 4:34 am

In the systems we use in the industry , each operator input and equipment behaviour is recorded , and incase of any breakdown , analyse through these records. We don't rely on what the equipment operator tells us .
Is it different for the black box recovered ? Are all factors not recorded in the FDR ? The CVR might be helpful , but in my view the investigators should get the complete information from the FDR itself.
As an e.g. suppose the AOA signal was wrong for whatever reason , this wrong value would still be recorded, the auto trim cmnd would be recorded , the pilots actions like trying to lift the plane nose, if they noticed the trimming or lack of action would all be in the FDR.
It's been 10 days and except the initial statement , Boeing has been very quite. I suspect they have a complete picture of the problems but don't know how to present it for obvious reasons.
 
RandallStephens
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Sat Nov 17, 2018 4:36 am

A broken aoa sensor won't trip the mcas system into action if there's no load factor greater than 1. The radar24 data doesn't indicate a sharp turn or rapid vertical acceleration just prior to the fatal dive. Based on what they're telling us, mcas doesn't look to be the failure here based on the publicly available information.
 
mandala499
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Sat Nov 17, 2018 4:59 am

RandallStephens wrote:
A broken aoa sensor won't trip the mcas system into action if there's no load factor greater than 1. The radar24 data doesn't indicate a sharp turn or rapid vertical acceleration just prior to the fatal dive. Based on what they're telling us, mcas doesn't look to be the failure here based on the publicly available information.

Where does it say that MCAS will only kick in when load factor is greater than 1? You can still stall with load factor less than one...
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
rheinwaldner
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Sat Nov 17, 2018 8:16 am

RandallStephens wrote:
Who says they aren't only PD?

Because the process can never establish ultimately the setpoint without the I. Without I an error remains. The roll axis would always swing a bit.
Many things are difficult, all things are possible!
 
RandallStephens
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Sat Nov 17, 2018 8:28 am

mandala499 wrote:
RandallStephens wrote:
A broken aoa sensor won't trip the mcas system into action if there's no load factor greater than 1. The radar24 data doesn't indicate a sharp turn or rapid vertical acceleration just prior to the fatal dive. Based on what they're telling us, mcas doesn't look to be the failure here based on the publicly available information.

Where does it say that MCAS will only kick in when load factor is greater than 1? You can still stall with load factor less than one...

Sure, you can stall at any load factor but an airplane travelling at 300 knots maintaining altitude is probably not stalled. If the altitude and speed plots were all over the place, maybe, but for 7 minutes the guys hung on and had it going straight. I doubt they stalled the thing.
 
mandala499
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Sat Nov 17, 2018 12:23 pm

RandallStephens wrote:
I doubt they stalled the thing.

Well, I think we can safely say that they didn't stall the jet... but from the descriptions available, the MCAS will work regardless of load factor as long as it is detecting the AOA (correctly or wrongly) within it's activation range, autopilot off, flaps up, and probably gears up, and some other stuff.
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
kalvado
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Sat Nov 17, 2018 12:29 pm

mandala499 wrote:
RandallStephens wrote:
I doubt they stalled the thing.

Well, I think we can safely say that they didn't stall the jet... but from the descriptions available, the MCAS will work regardless of load factor as long as it is detecting the AOA (correctly or wrongly) within it's activation range, autopilot off, flaps up, and probably gears up, and some other stuff.

My feeling is that someone just took few lines of autopilot code (which runs under the assumption that autopilot is engaged - which means input data is good, otherwise thing disengages) and enabled that for the manual mode. Hence a few conditions which are part of general autopilot operation are implied without proper basis or good understanding of those implications.
 
asdf
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Sat Nov 17, 2018 1:05 pm

wasn´t there MX on board?
maybe he tried to "reset" something live, he shouldn`t have tried at that attitude and flightlevel..?

BTW:
even if it would not have contributed to the crash, this MCAS implementation is crazy
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Sat Nov 17, 2018 1:16 pm

mandala499 wrote:
RandallStephens wrote:
I doubt they stalled the thing.

Well, I think we can safely say that they didn't stall the jet... but from the descriptions available, the MCAS will work regardless of load factor as long as it is detecting the AOA (correctly or wrongly) within it's activation range, autopilot off, flaps up, and probably gears up, and some other stuff.

This is exactly the problem: automatic authority action based on a single wrong value, regardless of all others available data that clearly show that this value is wrong. A predictor filter algorithm would have correctly filter out this erratic value because it didn't fit into the probability of value set by the predictor from all the others data (IR, energy state, control surface state, GPS, etc...)

Sure you have all your OFF switches, but good algorithm can also correctly play with unreliable sensors.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
716131
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Sat Nov 17, 2018 3:41 pm

3 more passengers again identified today and all which are from Bangka according to this source, they will also be heading back home tomorrow morning.

http://wartabangka.com/berita/2018/11/1 ... jati-babel
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
 
cat3appr50
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Sat Nov 17, 2018 5:39 pm

The flight went from 5,050’ to ocean impact in around 40 secs. For over 6 previous minutes including just before the rapid descent to impact, they held (somehow) the aircraft at a mean altitude of around 5,200’ with no excessive climb or descent excursions. Despite whatever anomaly they were fighting, they were in somewhat general control of the aircraft after the very significant initiating event on takeoff climb around 2,050’ (in which there was an unusual rapid descent and then climb). Then for some (yet unknown) reason either one of two AoA sensors (or associated ADIRU) generated an output signal which initiated the MCAS action to prevent an (false- the data shows no +fpm climb before the rapid descent) apparent stall via automatically driving the HS very quickly to a nose down direction.

That being said, with all due respect how does anyone on this forum know that they DIDN’T TRY to manually or otherwise stop the (automatic) trim wheel movement, but couldn’t, while they were also desperately pulling on the yokes to arrest the sudden rapid descent in a high –g condition?

Was this automatic scenario a PFEMA analyzed condition? Was this automatic scenario tested during aircraft operational test flights or in a specific 737 Max 8 simulator? An AoA sensor failure (in a false stall situation) driving an automatic rapid nose down HS movement IMO should probably be based on a 2 out of 3 AoA’s voting control scheme and not on a current single (i.e. either of two total) AoA sensor, along with a very simple and straightforward action for the pilot to disengage all automatic control of that stall reaction scenario, to allow manual stall response as every pilot has been trained to do (drilled into memory) starting in the early phase of private pilot training.
 
patplan
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Sat Nov 17, 2018 11:29 pm

cat3appr50 wrote:
The flight went from 5,050’ to ocean impact in around 40 secs. For over 6 previous minutes including just before the rapid descent to impact, they held (somehow) the aircraft at a mean altitude of around 5,200’ with no excessive climb or descent excursions. Despite whatever anomaly they were fighting, they were in somewhat general control of the aircraft after the very significant initiating event on takeoff climb around 2,050’ (in which there was an unusual rapid descent and then climb). Then for some (yet unknown) reason either one of two AoA sensors (or associated ADIRU) generated an output signal which initiated the MCAS action to prevent an (false- the data shows no +fpm climb before the rapid descent) apparent stall via automatically driving the HS very quickly to a nose down direction.

That being said, with all due respect how does anyone on this forum know that they DIDN’T TRY to manually or otherwise stop the (automatic) trim wheel movement, but couldn’t, while they were also desperately pulling on the yokes to arrest the sudden rapid descent in a high –g condition?

Was this automatic scenario a PFEMA analyzed condition? Was this automatic scenario tested during aircraft operational test flights or in a specific 737 Max 8 simulator? An AoA sensor failure (in a false stall situation) driving an automatic rapid nose down HS movement IMO should probably be based on a 2 out of 3 AoA’s voting control scheme and not on a current single (i.e. either of two total) AoA sensor, along with a very simple and straightforward action for the pilot to disengage all automatic control of that stall reaction scenario, to allow manual stall response as every pilot has been trained to do (drilled into memory) starting in the early phase of private pilot training.


As of this very minute, there is NO 737 MAX8 [or MAX9] simulator available or being delivered to any of the operators.
 
smartplane
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Sun Nov 18, 2018 3:03 am

patplan wrote:
As of this very minute, there is NO 737 MAX8 [or MAX9] simulator available or being delivered to any of the operators.

Which suggests differences between MAX and other 737 variants either wasn't disclosed, or is described by the manufacturer as not relevant.

So if a new Boeing 737MAX customer ordered today, with no current 737 fleet, and wanted a simulator, they would be sold a non-MAX version? For example, Air Canada is presumably using a simulator not 100% relevant to the actual aircraft they are flying?

And is the operation and assistance (interference) identical on all four MAX models? Surely not if the purpose of MCAS is as described. In fact, the objective of the system is to make all four MAX versions fly the same as each other, and mimic earlier generations, so when inoperative, by default, they must all behave differently to varying degrees.
 
pugman211
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Sun Nov 18, 2018 1:37 pm

Can someone please explain this scenario... the aircraft is trimmed fully down (so the nose will want to drop) because of the unreliable airspeed they do actually stall. They're at 5000 ft give or take a bit, the dive starts, the pilot's pull back on the yokes as hard as they can (assuming the feel pressure is high). Could they achieve enough elevator deflection to pull out of the dive? Reading what people have said throughout the threads, the wings would naturally generate their own lift as speed increases, but without enough elevator deflection would they be able to pull out as it's reported that there was no attempt to?

Another point, during the dive, due to the stab being trimmed down, would that keep pushing the nose lower preventing ability to pull up?

No, I'm not bashing the MAX as I actually like hearing its success, I'm just full of questions (some pretty stupid ones too ha)
 
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AlexA340B777
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Sun Nov 18, 2018 1:44 pm

I tried to find out any update in the net about the search for the CVR black box... there is no info.
Does anyone have some more details about the search, i.e. how they are trying to find the CVR and how many ships / manpower is involved?

I think it is essential to find the voice recorder to get the full picture of what was leading to this accident.
6 continents, 85 countries, 748 flights, 90 airlines, 37 aircraft types
 
Noshow
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Sun Nov 18, 2018 1:53 pm

The CVR batteries should be almost empty now. So no more homing signals. The FDR had been covered with sand so the CVR might be buried under sand as well. Not sure if they can ever find it.

All recorders should be made to store all information in the future.
 
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glideslope
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Sun Nov 18, 2018 2:29 pm

AlexA340B777 wrote:
I tried to find out any update in the net about the search for the CVR black box... there is no info.
Does anyone have some more details about the search, i.e. how they are trying to find the CVR and how many ships / manpower is involved?

I think it is essential to find the voice recorder to get the full picture of what was leading to this accident.


I could not agree more. I’ve felt the key to trying to understand the event will be on the CVR. IMO, it was most likely buried deep in the very muddy bottom in that area. One would hope all possible efforts are being made to locate it. I’m growing less confident each day. Understanding the CRM between the crew is vital. Such a tragic loss of life needs to be understood conclusively.
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
patplan
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Sun Nov 18, 2018 3:01 pm

AlexA340B777 wrote:
I tried to find out any update in the net about the search for the CVR black box... there is no info.
Does anyone have some more details about the search, i.e. how they are trying to find the CVR and how many ships / manpower is involved?

I think it is essential to find the voice recorder to get the full picture of what was leading to this accident.


The Indonesian authority mentioned that the last time the CVR's pinker had been heard from was around November 2nd.

They suspected the pinker had malfunctioned due to the some kind of leakage caused by the violent drop to the ocean floor before being buried by the thick mud at the bottom.

They started deploying a more advance ROV with the sub-bottom profiling capability that can scan object under about 12 feet of mud. Without mentioning the starting point, they reported that the radius for the search is about 1 kilometer wide.

Presently, they still don't have any specific timetable for ending the CVR search.

- https://translate.google.com/translate? ... edit-text=
 
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AlexA340B777
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Sun Nov 18, 2018 5:42 pm

Thanks for your inputs.

Wouldn‘t the whole aviation industry be wanting to make sure that the cause of this particular crash, which gives so much room for speculation about the 737 Max aircraft systems and CRM, will be studied in detail and determined, and therefore by any means the search for the voice recorder will be continued until found?
6 continents, 85 countries, 748 flights, 90 airlines, 37 aircraft types
 
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Starlionblue
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Mon Nov 19, 2018 6:30 am

AlexA340B777 wrote:
Thanks for your inputs.

Wouldn‘t the whole aviation industry be wanting to make sure that the cause of this particular crash, which gives so much room for speculation about the 737 Max aircraft systems and CRM, will be studied in detail and determined, and therefore by any means the search for the voice recorder will be continued until found?


In theory, if the investigators can reach a satisfactory conclusion without the CVR, there is no real reason to look for it.

That being said, I think that in this case, the search for the CVR will continue.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Mon Nov 19, 2018 6:40 am

Starlionblue wrote:
AlexA340B777 wrote:
Thanks for your inputs.

Wouldn‘t the whole aviation industry be wanting to make sure that the cause of this particular crash, which gives so much room for speculation about the 737 Max aircraft systems and CRM, will be studied in detail and determined, and therefore by any means the search for the voice recorder will be continued until found?


In theory, if the investigators can reach a satisfactory conclusion without the CVR, there is no real reason to look for it.

That being said, I think that in this case, the search for the CVR will continue.


I wonder if this might be an example of a crash where it’s in some people’s best interest if a CVR is not found? With the perceived blame pointing at Boeing right now, Lion Air might be better served if the CVR is never found because then there’s not an opportunity for the heroic pilots to become incompetent. Indonesia might be better served because it takes pressure off the domestic industry and oversight. Boeing might want it to be found but of course there’s a chance that it will just make Boeing sound worse and possibly trigger emotions in the traveling public and of course shareholders.

That’s not to say an investigation isn’t wanted or needed, and it’s not to imply fault. It’s just me pondering whether the CVR is coveted or dreaded by the involved parties.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
maint123
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Mon Nov 19, 2018 8:03 am

PlanesNTrains wrote:
Starlionblue wrote:
AlexA340B777 wrote:
Thanks for your inputs.

Wouldn‘t the whole aviation industry be wanting to make sure that the cause of this particular crash, which gives so much room for speculation about the 737 Max aircraft systems and CRM, will be studied in detail and determined, and therefore by any means the search for the voice recorder will be continued until found?


In theory, if the investigators can reach a satisfactory conclusion without the CVR, there is no real reason to look for it.

That being said, I think that in this case, the search for the CVR will continue.


I wonder if this might be an example of a crash where it’s in some people’s best interest if a CVR is not found? With the perceived blame pointing at Boeing right now, Lion Air might be better served if the CVR is never found because then there’s not an opportunity for the heroic pilots to become incompetent. Indonesia might be better served because it takes pressure off the domestic industry and oversight. Boeing might want it to be found but of course there’s a chance that it will just make Boeing sound worse and possibly trigger emotions in the traveling public and of course shareholders.

That’s not to say an investigation isn’t wanted or needed, and it’s not to imply fault. It’s just me pondering whether the CVR is coveted or dreaded by the involved parties.

The incompetence of boeing has already been clearly exposed & revealed.The only question now is whether the crew could have done a better job at low altitude, in ignorance of the stealth modes quietly introduced by Boeing.The consensus at the moment is no.
Even after being thoroughly exposed , its noticeable that no grounding has been ordered of Max planes and the pilots continue operating a plane who's operational logic is still under heavy dispute. It's like inviting trouble.
Power of corporations deemed too important to fail.
 
Trin
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Mon Nov 19, 2018 4:23 pm

maint123 wrote:
The incompetence of boeing has already been clearly exposed & revealed.The only question now is whether the crew could have done a better job at low altitude, in ignorance of the stealth modes quietly introduced by Boeing.The consensus at the moment is no.
Even after being thoroughly exposed , its noticeable that no grounding has been ordered of Max planes and the pilots continue operating a plane who's operational logic is still under heavy dispute. It's like inviting trouble.
Power of corporations deemed too important to fail.


This is all sensationalist nonsense. The CVR will be found, and with it the final story of this plane and what happened with the flight crew losing control. As many have noted on here, the crew would have been able to control (and apparently did for some time - going by their maintained altitude of ~5,000 ft for ~10 mins or so) the airplane using runaway trim and the STAB-TRIM-CUTOUT memory items, even IF the aircraft was repeatedly nosing down.

For me, of equal if not more importance is the reason behind WHY the plane had been suffering from erroneous sensor issues for days, and why Lion Air ground crews were unable to fix the issues even after repeated attempts.

Trin
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Mon Nov 19, 2018 5:24 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
Starlionblue wrote:
AlexA340B777 wrote:
Thanks for your inputs.

Wouldn‘t the whole aviation industry be wanting to make sure that the cause of this particular crash, which gives so much room for speculation about the 737 Max aircraft systems and CRM, will be studied in detail and determined, and therefore by any means the search for the voice recorder will be continued until found?


In theory, if the investigators can reach a satisfactory conclusion without the CVR, there is no real reason to look for it.

That being said, I think that in this case, the search for the CVR will continue.


I wonder if this might be an example of a crash where it’s in some people’s best interest if a CVR is not found? With the perceived blame pointing at Boeing right now, Lion Air might be better served if the CVR is never found because then there’s not an opportunity for the heroic pilots to become incompetent. Indonesia might be better served because it takes pressure off the domestic industry and oversight. Boeing might want it to be found but of course there’s a chance that it will just make Boeing sound worse and possibly trigger emotions in the traveling public and of course shareholders.

That’s not to say an investigation isn’t wanted or needed, and it’s not to imply fault. It’s just me pondering whether the CVR is coveted or dreaded by the involved parties.


Crazy conspiracy theories in the defense of Boeing.
 
StTim
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Mon Nov 19, 2018 5:35 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
Starlionblue wrote:

In theory, if the investigators can reach a satisfactory conclusion without the CVR, there is no real reason to look for it.

That being said, I think that in this case, the search for the CVR will continue.


I wonder if this might be an example of a crash where it’s in some people’s best interest if a CVR is not found? With the perceived blame pointing at Boeing right now, Lion Air might be better served if the CVR is never found because then there’s not an opportunity for the heroic pilots to become incompetent. Indonesia might be better served because it takes pressure off the domestic industry and oversight. Boeing might want it to be found but of course there’s a chance that it will just make Boeing sound worse and possibly trigger emotions in the traveling public and of course shareholders.

That’s not to say an investigation isn’t wanted or needed, and it’s not to imply fault. It’s just me pondering whether the CVR is coveted or dreaded by the involved parties.


Crazy conspiracy theories in the defense of Boeing.


Too be fair there are a few crazy theories blaming it all on Boeing.

In reality almost all accidents/incidents are a sad nexus of a number of events - any individual one of which would not have caused the accident/incident.

Such posts are not really worthy of discussion.
 
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7BOEING7
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Mon Nov 19, 2018 6:46 pm

StTim wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:

I wonder if this might be an example of a crash where it’s in some people’s best interest if a CVR is not found? With the perceived blame pointing at Boeing right now, Lion Air might be better served if the CVR is never found because then there’s not an opportunity for the heroic pilots to become incompetent. Indonesia might be better served because it takes pressure off the domestic industry and oversight. Boeing might want it to be found but of course there’s a chance that it will just make Boeing sound worse and possibly trigger emotions in the traveling public and of course shareholders.

That’s not to say an investigation isn’t wanted or needed, and it’s not to imply fault. It’s just me pondering whether the CVR is coveted or dreaded by the involved parties.


Crazy conspiracy theories in the defense of Boeing.


Too be fair there are a few crazy theories blaming it all on Boeing.

In reality almost all accidents/incidents are a sad nexus of a number of events - any individual one of which would not have caused the accident/incident.

Such posts are not really worthy of discussion.


:checkmark:

Right now all we know is that the DFDR saw anomalies in the previous three flights but only the last one was written up? Were the two flights previous to that uneventful?

The previous flight had an IAS and ALT disagree but the flight crew had no problem flying it to destination satisfactorily.

After maintenance action, on the next flight everything went south -- there are a lot of links in this chain, it's not all about MCAS.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Mon Nov 19, 2018 7:19 pm

StTim wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:

I wonder if this might be an example of a crash where it’s in some people’s best interest if a CVR is not found? With the perceived blame pointing at Boeing right now, Lion Air might be better served if the CVR is never found because then there’s not an opportunity for the heroic pilots to become incompetent. Indonesia might be better served because it takes pressure off the domestic industry and oversight. Boeing might want it to be found but of course there’s a chance that it will just make Boeing sound worse and possibly trigger emotions in the traveling public and of course shareholders.

That’s not to say an investigation isn’t wanted or needed, and it’s not to imply fault. It’s just me pondering whether the CVR is coveted or dreaded by the involved parties.


Crazy conspiracy theories in the defense of Boeing.


Too be fair there are a few crazy theories blaming it all on Boeing.

In reality almost all accidents/incidents are a sad nexus of a number of events - any individual one of which would not have caused the accident/incident.

Such posts are not really worthy of discussion.


And still more blaming it all on the pilots.
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9524
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Mon Nov 19, 2018 9:36 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
Starlionblue wrote:

In theory, if the investigators can reach a satisfactory conclusion without the CVR, there is no real reason to look for it.

That being said, I think that in this case, the search for the CVR will continue.


I wonder if this might be an example of a crash where it’s in some people’s best interest if a CVR is not found? With the perceived blame pointing at Boeing right now, Lion Air might be better served if the CVR is never found because then there’s not an opportunity for the heroic pilots to become incompetent. Indonesia might be better served because it takes pressure off the domestic industry and oversight. Boeing might want it to be found but of course there’s a chance that it will just make Boeing sound worse and possibly trigger emotions in the traveling public and of course shareholders.

That’s not to say an investigation isn’t wanted or needed, and it’s not to imply fault. It’s just me pondering whether the CVR is coveted or dreaded by the involved parties.


Crazy conspiracy theories in the defense of Boeing.


Since you quoted me, I wasn't defending Boeing and I wasn't implying a conspiracy at all. I was merely stating that at least two if not all three main parties (Boeing, LionAir, and Indonesian aerospace) might be "ok" if the cvr were not to be found.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
Flyglobal
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Tue Nov 20, 2018 12:11 pm

Nothing new so far. I would have expected that some details out of the FR readings are published earlier. So we have to wait for a good more week to have the first report.

Flyglobal
 
gzm
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Tue Nov 20, 2018 2:35 pm

The CVR will be found,rest assured, because it is a necessity and top priority; perhaps it will take another two weeks or so, but it will be found,remember this is not MH370. I need not be an expert to understand that. It will be interesting to see what sharp insights it will give to the experts.
 
JFernandez
Posts: 192
Joined: Tue Feb 03, 2004 8:43 am

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Tue Nov 20, 2018 5:02 pm

Under what circumstances would the MCAS be important at the altitudes we're talking about here? (~5,000 feet). I keep getting the sense down this behavior would not have been a problem at FL350 but given that there were 40 seconds to impact from nose down, the pilots couldn't have had more than 10-15 seconds to rectify the command.
 
smartplane
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Wed Nov 21, 2018 3:27 am

smartplane wrote:
patplan wrote:
As of this very minute, there is NO 737 MAX8 [or MAX9] simulator available or being delivered to any of the operators.

Which suggests differences between MAX and other 737 variants either wasn't disclosed, or is described by the manufacturer as not relevant.

So if a new Boeing 737MAX customer ordered today, with no current 737 fleet, and wanted a simulator, they would be sold a non-MAX version? For example, Air Canada is presumably using a simulator not 100% relevant to the actual aircraft they are flying?

And is the operation and assistance (interference) identical on all four MAX models? Surely not if the purpose of MCAS is as described. In fact, the objective of the system is to make all four MAX versions fly the same as each other, and mimic earlier generations, so when inoperative, by default, they must all behave differently to varying degrees.

If MCAS and other software masks flying characteristic differences between models and families when operative, facilitating shared type ratings, presumably Boeing (and Airbus) demonstrated to the FAA and EASA the software is fail-safe, and if it fails or is OFF, aircraft with shared type ratings behave within acceptable, agreed and documented parameters.

For example, if the software required to mask / mimic 787 flight characteristics to the level 787's share the 777 type rating (or vice versa), isn't working, the flying characteristics of both, unaided, are similar (or within agreed parameters).

Without software assistance, would the 788 fly like the 779? Was the cancelled call from Boeing to MAX operators going to discuss differences not only between MAX and earlier models, but also between different MAX models? Has the FAA now broadened the investigation? Will it be a Boeing / FAA call at the next attempt?
 
BravoOne
Posts: 4094
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2013 2:27 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Wed Nov 21, 2018 10:37 am

smartplane wrote:
patplan wrote:
As of this very minute, there is NO 737 MAX8 [or MAX9] simulator available or being delivered to any of the operators.

Which suggests differences between MAX and other 737 variants either wasn't disclosed, or is described by the manufacturer as not relevant.

So if a new Boeing 737MAX customer ordered today, with no current 737 fleet, and wanted a simulator, they would be sold a non-MAX version? For example, Air Canada is presumably using a simulator not 100% relevant to the actual aircraft they are flying?

And is the operation and assistance (interference) identical on all four MAX models? Surely not if the purpose of MCAS is as described. In fact, the objective of the system is to make all four MAX versions fly the same as each other, and mimic earlier generations, so when inoperative, by default, they must all behave differently to varying degrees.



Boeing has a MAX sim at both the MIA and LGW training facilities.
 
asdf
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:02 am

BravoOne wrote:
Boeing has a MAX sim at both the MIA and LGW training facilities.


well, there have been other voices telling that this are NG sims, not MAX
but maybe they are wrong

did (or do) those sims cover the MCAS interventions?
 
User avatar
glideslope
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:33 am

[/quote]I wonder if this might be an example of a crash where it’s in some people’s best interest if a CVR is not found? With the perceived blame pointing at Boeing right now, Lion Air might be better served if the CVR is never found because then there’s not an opportunity for the heroic pilots to become incompetent. Indonesia might be better served because it takes pressure off the domestic industry and oversight. Boeing might want it to be found but of course there’s a chance that it will just make Boeing sound worse and possibly trigger emotions in the traveling public and of course shareholders.

That’s not to say an investigation isn’t wanted or needed, and it’s not to imply fault. It’s just me pondering whether the CVR is coveted or dreaded by the involved parties.[/quote]


I contemplate this on a daily basis. Given the carrier and more importantly the region, anything is possible. I'm not a conspiracy theorist, however the CRV recovery efforts have seemed to be lack luster at best IMO. As in any event it will end up being a combination of events. Boeing may have some responsibility, however the previous flights of the aircraft display the reasons Lion Air is one of the most dangerous carries in the world.
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
kalvado
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:52 am

asdf wrote:
BravoOne wrote:
Boeing has a MAX sim at both the MIA and LGW training facilities.


well, there have been other voices telling that this are NG sims, not MAX
but maybe they are wrong

did (or do) those sims cover the MCAS interventions?

More fundamentally, what are the differences between NG and MAX from the pilot seat? Boeing says that there are none, an mcas, if implemented property, is outside normal training range of parameters. Then only reason to have mcas implemented in simulation is for accident reconstruction and crash investigation reasons.
 
WIederling
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Wed Nov 21, 2018 12:02 pm

kalvado wrote:
More fundamentally, what are the differences between NG and MAX from the pilot seat? Boeing says that there are none, an mcas, if implemented property, is outside normal training range of parameters. Then only reason to have mcas implemented in simulation is for accident reconstruction and crash investigation reasons.


If the physical user interface ( aka cockpit layout :-) is the same
changes can be made a configurable/switchable property.

( I don't think "MCAS of no immediate concern for training" is an acceptable position.)
Murphy is an optimist
 
kalvado
Posts: 2971
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Wed Nov 21, 2018 12:27 pm

WIederling wrote:
( I don't think "MCAS of no immediate concern for training" is an acceptable position.)

Still it makes some sense. I would compare MCAS with car airbag to some extent. If you need it, you are significantly outside normal mode, and while it is a planned emergency feature- it makes little sense to practice the use, better spend training time on avoiding those marginal situations.
It is a bad idea to withhold information, even worse idea to implement it poorly. But I don't think crash axe is part of sim arrangement as well.
Still wondering what are the other differences hidden by the software, though.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9411
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Wed Nov 21, 2018 12:30 pm

glideslope wrote:
I wonder if this might be an example of a crash where it’s in some people’s best interest if a CVR is not found? With the perceived blame pointing at Boeing right now, Lion Air might be better served if the CVR is never found because then there’s not an opportunity for the heroic pilots to become incompetent. Indonesia might be better served because it takes pressure off the domestic industry and oversight. Boeing might want it to be found but of course there’s a chance that it will just make Boeing sound worse and possibly trigger emotions in the traveling public and of course shareholders.

That’s not to say an investigation isn’t wanted or needed, and it’s not to imply fault. It’s just me pondering whether the CVR is coveted or dreaded by the involved parties.[/quote]


I contemplate this on a daily basis. Given the carrier and more importantly the region, anything is possible. I'm not a conspiracy theorist, however the CRV recovery efforts have seemed to be lack luster at best IMO. As in any event it will end up being a combination of events. Boeing may have some responsibility, however the previous flights of the aircraft display the reasons Lion Air is one of the most dangerous carries in the world.[/quote]

You are clearly a conspiracy theorist.
 
BravoOne
Posts: 4094
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2013 2:27 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Wed Nov 21, 2018 12:39 pm

asdf wrote:
BravoOne wrote:
Boeing has a MAX sim at both the MIA and LGW training facilities.


well, there have been other voices telling that this are NG sims, not MAX
but maybe they are wrong

did (or do) those sims cover the MCAS interventions?


Don't listen to voices:) They are built from scratch 737-8MAX sims.
 
N47
Posts: 93
Joined: Tue Sep 26, 2017 7:38 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Wed Nov 21, 2018 1:09 pm

BravoOne wrote:
asdf wrote:
BravoOne wrote:
Boeing has a MAX sim at both the MIA and LGW training facilities.


well, there have been other voices telling that this are NG sims, not MAX
but maybe they are wrong

did (or do) those sims cover the MCAS interventions?


Don't listen to voices:) They are built from scratch 737-8MAX sims.


Here is one:

Image

Image

Link:
https://www.trusimulation.com/news/4-6-2017/tru-qualifies-first-ever-boeing-737-max-full-flight-simulator
 
User avatar
enilria
Posts: 10377
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Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Wed Nov 21, 2018 1:44 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
I contemplate this on a daily basis. Given the carrier and more importantly the region, anything is possible.

IMHO, suggesting only officials in foreign countries or the third world are corrupt is the height of naivety. People are just corrupt on a much grander scale as you ascend the development scale.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9411
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Wed Nov 21, 2018 2:46 pm

N47 wrote:
BravoOne wrote:
asdf wrote:

well, there have been other voices telling that this are NG sims, not MAX
but maybe they are wrong

did (or do) those sims cover the MCAS interventions?


Don't listen to voices:) They are built from scratch 737-8MAX sims.


Here is one:

Image

Image

Link:
https://www.trusimulation.com/news/4-6-2017/tru-qualifies-first-ever-boeing-737-max-full-flight-simulator


That is no prove for a simulator different than the 737NG simulator. That is the proof of a nice paint job.
 
User avatar
caoimhin
Posts: 464
Joined: Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:30 am

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Wed Nov 21, 2018 2:56 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
N47 wrote:
BravoOne wrote:

Don't listen to voices:) They are built from scratch 737-8MAX sims.


Here is one:

Image

Image

Link:
https://www.trusimulation.com/news/4-6-2017/tru-qualifies-first-ever-boeing-737-max-full-flight-simulator


That is no proof for a simulator different than the 737NG simulator. That is the proof of a nice paint job.


It’s got an HUD, most visibly. So it’s more than simply a paint job.
 
WIederling
Posts: 9622
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Wed Nov 21, 2018 2:58 pm

kalvado wrote:
WIederling wrote:
( I don't think "MCAS of no immediate concern for training" is an acceptable position.)

Still it makes some sense. I would compare MCAS with car airbag to some extent. If you need it, you are significantly outside normal mode, and while it is a planned emergency feature- it makes little sense to practice the use, better spend training time on avoiding those marginal situations.


You would include "deactivating the air-bag" for unsuitable occupants ( like a toddler in his rearfacing seat )
IMU the circumstances here are similar.

kalvado wrote:
It is a bad idea to withhold information, even worse idea to implement it poorly. But I don't think crash axe is part of sim arrangement as well.
Still wondering what are the other differences hidden by the software, though.


Right. I'd expect some other warts ( needed for keeping the 737 competitive ) to show up in the future.
Murphy is an optimist
 
BravoOne
Posts: 4094
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2013 2:27 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Wed Nov 21, 2018 3:09 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
N47 wrote:
BravoOne wrote:

Don't listen to voices:) They are built from scratch 737-8MAX sims.


Here is one:

Image

Image

Link:
https://www.trusimulation.com/news/4-6-2017/tru-qualifies-first-ever-boeing-737-max-full-flight-simulator


That is no proof for a simulator different than the 737NG simulator. That is the proof of a nice paint job.


Keep up that line of thought. How do you think crews would get MAX qualified if they were initial cadre without previous 737 experience? They need a 737-8 MAX to do this training. Doing "differences" is another and easier solution. Think SWA for example.

PS it helps if you only submit once. Ask me how I know?
 
User avatar
7BOEING7
Posts: 3039
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Wed Nov 21, 2018 3:28 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
N47 wrote:
BravoOne wrote:

Don't listen to voices:) They are built from scratch 737-8MAX sims.


Here is one:

Image

Image

Link:
https://www.trusimulation.com/news/4-6-2017/tru-qualifies-first-ever-boeing-737-max-full-flight-simulator


That is no proof for a simulator different than the 737NG simulator. That is the proof of a nice paint job.



Just because you say it three times doesn't make it a true.

The photo of the interior configuration is that of a MAX.
 
User avatar
glideslope
Posts: 1622
Joined: Sun May 30, 2004 8:06 pm

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

Wed Nov 21, 2018 3:39 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
glideslope wrote:
I wonder if this might be an example of a crash where it’s in some people’s best interest if a CVR is not found? With the perceived blame pointing at Boeing right now, Lion Air might be better served if the CVR is never found because then there’s not an opportunity for the heroic pilots to become incompetent. Indonesia might be better served because it takes pressure off the domestic industry and oversight. Boeing might want it to be found but of course there’s a chance that it will just make Boeing sound worse and possibly trigger emotions in the traveling public and of course shareholders.

That’s not to say an investigation isn’t wanted or needed, and it’s not to imply fault. It’s just me pondering whether the CVR is coveted or dreaded by the involved parties.



I really do not believe I am. I simply have experience with carriers in this region, and this region. I would be more concerned with with the activities of the Indonesian Authorities than the leadership at LNI. I understand your comment. I should have not responded to the earlier post as this continues to primarily be a automation systems/training interpretation based discussion.
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu

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