So with the up coming HND slot lottery for 2020 Delta has three TPAC markets operating into NRT DTW, SEA and ATL. my question is if Delta is only awarded two slot pairs (Most likely) What happens to the 3rd market that doesn't get awarded HND access does it just get dropped or will Delta continue to fly the last reaming destination to NRT with on ward service to MNL or SIN. What do you all think will be the markets that Delta will be awarded and if it is SEA and DTW will they also fly to NRT alongside of the HND. It's probably a given that if ATL gets one of the HND slots that it will drop ATL-NRT like it did with LAX and MSP.

You realize that whether DL gets a slot for DTW, ATL, or both they will lose flights to NRT? So regardless you're not gaining anything, it is just being transferred from NRT to HND. DL will NOT fly to both Tokyo airports from ATL or DTW.

The NRT flights seem to be dead by 2020. Those flights only worked at the previous scale. With Asian traffic shifting to ICN, I'm sure the remaining NRT flights probably aren't doing well overall. DL is heavily reliant on O&D to Tokyo at this point and NRT is just an inferior option to HND.

I think DL will take what it can get at HND and shift the three to HND (if they get three pairs) and if they dont, they'll cut what they can't shift and do away with NRT. At best, the beach flights to Japan (including NRT) from HNL might stick around but everything else either moves to HND, gets cut or shifts to ICN. And of course, the remaining fifth freedom flights are gone as well.

I think DL even mentioned recently that NRT isn't currently making any money. I'm sure they want to drop NRT as soon as possible but they probably want to do so in a way that preserves DL's presence in Tokyo. So waiting for the opportunity to shift to HND is the only option. Now that the fifth freedom flights are mostly gone, DL is in a poor position to capture O&D via NRT. They're still a relevant brand in Japan but they need to find a way to keep that relevance.

lavalampluva wrote:

You realize that whether DL gets a slot for DTW, ATL, or both they will lose flights to NRT? So regardless you're not gaining anything, it is just being transferred from NRT to HND. DL will NOT fly to both Tokyo airports from ATL or DTW.

Exactly. When LAX-HND was added, they dropped LAX-NRT.

Although one could argue that DTW-HND would be beneficial (even if it means cutting DTW-NRT) because HND is closer to Tokyo's city center than NRT is, and HND is the preferred airport for business travelers to the Tokyo area.

NRT is Tokyo’s version of London Gatwick.

When Delta got LHR slots, DL’s service to LGW ended. Same with Tokyo. For all practical purposes, Delta is 3 HND slots short right now. (HNL service may or may not continue on DL to NRT... but that is another discussion). If the rumored 8 slots are awarded to US carriers, I think DL can make a strong case to the DOT, and will get slots for all of ATL/SEA/DTW.

Honestly, I think if DL only gets two slots than I think they go to SEA/DTW, and DL has to make a tough choice on whether to keep the MSP flight or switch that slot to ATL. DTW and SEA both have a lot more OD to Tokyo and good geography, leaving MSP or ATL as the odd one out. And yes, after AA gets their DFW slot, I am guessing the DOT would let DL move the MSP flight if they wanted.

On the opposite side, if DL somehow got 4 slots, I honestly think they would use it to JFK over HNL. I can’t see DL using a HND slot on HNL. Again, whether HNL-NRT continues on Delta would be interesting to see, but independent of who gets HND slots.

What about United? Do we think they might request some slots and start slowly transitioning as well?

lavalampluva wrote:

You realize that whether DL gets a slot for DTW, ATL, or both they will lose flights to NRT? So regardless you're not gaining anything, it is just being transferred from NRT to HND. DL will NOT fly to both Tokyo airports from ATL or DTW.

Didn't Delta operate SEA-NRT and SEA-HND at the same time? And for the short time that DTW-HND operated it also operated alongside DTW-NRT. Where are you getting your information?

TTailedTiger wrote:

lavalampluva wrote:

You realize that whether DL gets a slot for DTW, ATL, or both they will lose flights to NRT? So regardless you're not gaining anything, it is just being transferred from NRT to HND. DL will NOT fly to both Tokyo airports from ATL or DTW.

Didn't Delta operate SEA-NRT and SEA-HND at the same time? And for the short time that DTW-HND operated it also operated alongside DTW-NRT. Where are you getting your information?

Yes...and both were dropped (SEA lasted longer but operated at a greatly reduced frequency) - so this doesn't really help your point. Moreover, that was when DL had more of a hub at NRT. Now there is virtually no chance absent some extenuating circumstances (a corporate contract that is very valuable requiring NRT).

Also, the SEA-HND frequency was a HUGE fight with AA (DL lost)....just search for it on the forums.

gwrudolph wrote:

What about United? Do we think they might request some slots and start slowly transitioning as well?

The situation with UA is different because they are in a JV with ANA, which has a substantial operation at both HND and NRT. Whether or not UA flights to NRT survive depends largely on what ANA does with its connections. HND is also useful for connection, but my hunch is that given the restrictive slots, TPAC will be optimized to maximize O&D to HND, with connecting pax funneled over NRT so as to not take valuable seats to and from HND.

For DL, NRT will likely be scrapped, and HND will be only for O&D with connecting passengers going over ICN.

TTailedTiger wrote:

lavalampluva wrote:

You realize that whether DL gets a slot for DTW, ATL, or both they will lose flights to NRT? So regardless you're not gaining anything, it is just being transferred from NRT to HND. DL will NOT fly to both Tokyo airports from ATL or DTW.

Didn't Delta operate SEA-NRT and SEA-HND at the same time? And for the short time that DTW-HND operated it also operated alongside DTW-NRT. Where are you getting your information?

Both instances were nighttime HND slots, when most pax didn’t want to travel. Basically:

HND (daytime) > NRT > HND (12am-6am)

So of course DL wasn’t going to give up their NRT flights for a nighttime HND flight that no one wanted to fly. That being said, I haven’t seen any rule that says if you operate XXX-HND, you can’t also fly XXX-NRT. Granted in most cases the market won’t support both, but that is a different topic.

Besides, hypothetically should DL get a SEA-HND routing this go around, and then say DL comes back a few years later and asks to also fly NRT-SEA... I don’t see why NRT would say no. But then again, I can’t see DL asking for that either.

klm617 wrote:

So with the up coming HND slot lottery for 2020 Delta has three TPAC markets operating into NRT DTW, SEA and ATL. my question is if Delta is only awarded two slot pairs (Most likely) What happens to the 3rd market that doesn't get awarded HND access does it just get dropped or will Delta continue to fly the last reaming destination to NRT with on ward service to MNL or SIN. What do you all think will be the markets that Delta will be awarded and if it is SEA and DTW will they also fly to NRT alongside of the HND. It's probably a given that if ATL gets one of the HND slots that it will drop ATL-NRT like it did with LAX and MSP.

ATL-PVG was late to the party. I think ATL-NRT will be first to leave in that scenario. ATL is a great hub, but the geography as a connect point to NRT/HND is poor compared to the other two.

jbs2886 wrote:

TTailedTiger wrote:

lavalampluva wrote:

You realize that whether DL gets a slot for DTW, ATL, or both they will lose flights to NRT? So regardless you're not gaining anything, it is just being transferred from NRT to HND. DL will NOT fly to both Tokyo airports from ATL or DTW.

Didn't Delta operate SEA-NRT and SEA-HND at the same time? And for the short time that DTW-HND operated it also operated alongside DTW-NRT. Where are you getting your information?

Yes...and both were dropped (SEA lasted longer but operated at a greatly reduced frequency) - so this doesn't really help your point. Moreover, that was when DL had more of a hub at NRT. Now there is virtually no chance absent some extenuating circumstances (a corporate contract that is very valuable requiring NRT).

Also, the SEA-HND frequency was a HUGE fight with AA (DL lost)....just search for it on the forums.

I just don't like it when people revise history and speak in absolute. The person who claimed that Delta left LGW after gaining LHR slots is also wrong. ATL-LGW stuck around for quite some time after ATL-LHR started.

TTailedTiger wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

TTailedTiger wrote:

Didn't Delta operate SEA-NRT and SEA-HND at the same time? And for the short time that DTW-HND operated it also operated alongside DTW-NRT. Where are you getting your information?

Yes...and both were dropped (SEA lasted longer but operated at a greatly reduced frequency) - so this doesn't really help your point. Moreover, that was when DL had more of a hub at NRT. Now there is virtually no chance absent some extenuating circumstances (a corporate contract that is very valuable requiring NRT).

Also, the SEA-HND frequency was a HUGE fight with AA (DL lost)....just search for it on the forums.

I just don't like it when people revise history and speak in absolute. The person who claimed that Delta left LGW after gaining LHR slots is also wrong. ATL-LGW stuck around for quite some time after ATL-LHR started.

It was a comparison, and pretty apt one at that. The point was that DL operated/operates at LGW/NRT because they don’t have slots at the preferred airport of LHR/HND. Once slots become available, the operation shifts to the preferred location.

And if it helps with the comparison, DL *may* stay at NRT on HNL-NRT... just like they stayed with ATL-LGW for a bit.

TTailedTiger wrote:

lavalampluva wrote:

You realize that whether DL gets a slot for DTW, ATL, or both they will lose flights to NRT? So regardless you're not gaining anything, it is just being transferred from NRT to HND. DL will NOT fly to both Tokyo airports from ATL or DTW.

Didn't Delta operate SEA-NRT and SEA-HND at the same time? And for the short time that DTW-HND operated it also operated alongside DTW-NRT. Where are you getting your information?

You're right. They briefly did, but SEA-HND also got pulled not long after. But then this was also in 2014 or 2015?

https://pointmetotheplane.boardingarea. ... ted-daily/

So far everyone has forgotten that DL also flies NRT-PDX. So there are 4 TPAC flights that need to be considered. I'd guess SEA will move to HND due to the higher level of competition in SEA-TYO; the other 3 markets are DL monopolies. Of the others, I think DTW-TYO has the largest local market, and thus would probably make the most sense to move to HND. Also, as of now, DL plans to use 359 aircraft on both SEA and DTW to Tokyo next summer (rotating between the two in Tokyo), so moving both to HND could allow that aircraft routing to continue. But that's obviously a minor consideration compared to others...

With ATL, the question is whether the best course of action would be to keep it as ATL-NRT, try to move the MSP-HND flight to ATL-HND while dropping MSP-TYO, or drop ATL-TYO and keep MSP-HND. Of course, if DL gets 3 more HND slots, this question would be moot.

I don't see PDX retaining it's TYO flight unless DL gets 4 slots. DL could move that flight to PDX-ICN to preserve connectivity to Asia, but in doing so they might also unintentionally invite one of the Japanese carriers into PDX-TYO, which seems to have a decent local market.

TTailedTiger wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

TTailedTiger wrote:

Didn't Delta operate SEA-NRT and SEA-HND at the same time? And for the short time that DTW-HND operated it also operated alongside DTW-NRT. Where are you getting your information?

Yes...and both were dropped (SEA lasted longer but operated at a greatly reduced frequency) - so this doesn't really help your point. Moreover, that was when DL had more of a hub at NRT. Now there is virtually no chance absent some extenuating circumstances (a corporate contract that is very valuable requiring NRT).

Also, the SEA-HND frequency was a HUGE fight with AA (DL lost)....just search for it on the forums.

I just don't like it when people revise history and speak in absolute. The person who claimed that Delta left LGW after gaining LHR slots is also wrong. ATL-LGW stuck around for quite some time after ATL-LHR started.

LHR has long been slot-constrained. Yes, there was a 4-yr overlap between start of the 1st ATL-LHR on DL (2008) and the opening of the 2nd, which killed ATL-LGW. The broad contention: If DL had enough LHR slots it would have killed LGW earlier; similarly, if DL gets enough HND slots, NRT is done.

FSDan wrote:

So far everyone has forgotten that DL also flies NRT-PDX. So there are 4 TPAC flights that need to be considered. I'd guess SEA will move to HND due to the higher level of competition in SEA-TYO; the other 3 markets are DL monopolies. Of the others, I think DTW-TYO has the largest local market, and thus would probably make the most sense to move to HND. Also, as of now, DL plans to use 359 aircraft on both SEA and DTW to Tokyo next summer (rotating between the two in Tokyo), so moving both to HND could allow that aircraft routing to continue. But that's obviously a minor consideration compared to others...

With ATL, the question is whether the best course of action would be to keep it as ATL-NRT, try to move the MSP-HND flight to ATL-HND while dropping MSP-TYO, or drop ATL-TYO and keep MSP-HND. Of course, if DL gets 3 more HND slots, this question would be moot.

I don't see PDX retaining it's TYO flight unless DL gets 4 slots. DL could move that flight to PDX-ICN to preserve connectivity to Asia, but in doing so they might also unintentionally invite one of the Japanese carriers into PDX-TYO, which seems to have a decent local market.

That DL still flies PDX-NRT is a good point, and one that I admit I had overlooked.

That being said, I could actually see PDX-NRT continuing on DL until one of the Japanese carriers decides to start the route. I mean, why not? Arguably the PDX-NRT route today is mostly O/D on both sides anyway. And if there is no HND slot available direct to PDX, than a direct flight to NRT is still the next best thing.

As long as JL/NH decide not to fly PDX-NRT, then why not keep flying it if you are DL?

kavok wrote:

FSDan wrote:

So far everyone has forgotten that DL also flies NRT-PDX. So there are 4 TPAC flights that need to be considered. I'd guess SEA will move to HND due to the higher level of competition in SEA-TYO; the other 3 markets are DL monopolies. Of the others, I think DTW-TYO has the largest local market, and thus would probably make the most sense to move to HND. Also, as of now, DL plans to use 359 aircraft on both SEA and DTW to Tokyo next summer (rotating between the two in Tokyo), so moving both to HND could allow that aircraft routing to continue. But that's obviously a minor consideration compared to others...

With ATL, the question is whether the best course of action would be to keep it as ATL-NRT, try to move the MSP-HND flight to ATL-HND while dropping MSP-TYO, or drop ATL-TYO and keep MSP-HND. Of course, if DL gets 3 more HND slots, this question would be moot.

I don't see PDX retaining it's TYO flight unless DL gets 4 slots. DL could move that flight to PDX-ICN to preserve connectivity to Asia, but in doing so they might also unintentionally invite one of the Japanese carriers into PDX-TYO, which seems to have a decent local market.

That DL still flies PDX-NRT is a good point, and one that I admit I had overlooked.

That being said, I could actually see PDX-NRT continuing on DL until one of the Japanese carriers decides to start the route. I mean, why not? Arguably the PDX-NRT route today is mostly O/D on both sides anyway. And if there is no HND slot available direct to PDX, than a direct flight to NRT is still the next best thing.

As long as JL/NH decide not to fly PDX-NRT, then why not keep flying it if you are DL?

On the other hand, I could see PDX-NRT being moved to ICN. But, I don't know the amount of Tokyo O&D...if it is substantial, NRT could be continued.

This is a very interesting discussion. I think this is where the final product for Delta goes:

LAX-HND
SEA-HND
SEA-NRT
PDX-HND
MSP-HND
DTW-HND
ATL-HND
HNL-NRT
KOA-NRT (future)

Here is why I think this is the final product. First, I think SEA could totally serve both NRT and HND as it is the lowest cost NRT flight and the Asia gateway. Remember there are still likely a fair number of people wanting to go to NRT both people in the US and people around NRT in Japan. One daily flight with a 767 could make sense here, especially to maintain DL's image in Japan. This would also work with the NRT-HNL flights which would for sure remain at NRT unless DL got unlimited HND slots.

Second, I think PDX's Asian flight needs to be moved to HND arguably sooner rather than later as it is solely for O&D, any connections can go via SEA just a short flight away. For this reason though I think no mater what PDX holds on to its Tokyo flight. Without it, Delta is no longer the international career of choice in Portland.

With DL shifting away from connections at NRT, I could see Delta add some high O&D flights from NRT to stay relevant in the Tokyo market as well but those are less certain.

With the focus shifting to ICN, I wouldn't rule out a ICN-SIN, or ICN-MNL tag or SEA/LAX-SIN or SEA/DTW-MNL in the future. I think similar to DL across the atlantic, there is some benefit for both KE and DL for them to both be in the large markets. While a large majority of the USA-SIN market is still 1-stop, that is changing and the same goes for MNL. Relying 100% on KE for those destinations is just not feasible long term.

Narita is dead for DL. Per Ed Bastian comments in Airline Weekly few months back --

"Narita in its heyday, I think we had 20 airports and beyonds that we carried past there and it never was terribly profitable. Flying to Japan was good, but the airplanes stopped there and it was poor utilization flying we were doing a lot of intra region. Today, we’re down to less than a handful of routes beyond Narita, but by shifting over to Seoul we have 80 beyonds that we can serve. We knew we were going to lose our footprint in Narita over time with Haneda opening. So it gives us a great outlet to Asia by using Incheon instead. Its probably only matter of time before we are out of Narita completely."

As far as the slots - per Vasu Raja VP Planning at AA, he stated he believed there would likely be 8 total slots for US-Japan service allocated, which means, Japanese carriers would receive 4, with the other 4 given to the US DOT to hand out.

mpdpilot wrote:

This is a very interesting discussion. I think this is where the final product for Delta goes:

LAX-HND
SEA-HND
SEA-NRT
PDX-HND
MSP-HND
DTW-HND
ATL-HND
HNL-NRT
KOA-NRT (future)

Here is why I think this is the final product. First, I think SEA could totally serve both NRT and HND as it is the lowest cost NRT flight and the Asia gateway. Remember there are still likely a fair number of people wanting to go to NRT both people in the US and people around NRT in Japan. One daily flight with a 767 could make sense here, especially to maintain DL's image in Japan. This would also work with the NRT-HNL flights which would for sure remain at NRT unless DL got unlimited HND slots.

Second, I think PDX's Asian flight needs to be moved to HND arguably sooner rather than later as it is solely for O&D, any connections can go via SEA just a short flight away. For this reason though I think no mater what PDX holds on to its Tokyo flight. Without it, Delta is no longer the international career of choice in Portland.

Agree with most of your list. Except I think PDX will remain PDX-NRT. It's pretty much a contract-driven monopoly market for DL. There's basically little competition and no need for DL to sacrifice a HND slot just for that market. Only other option for anyone in PDX who wants to get to HND is to backtrack through SFO/LAX, fly AC/NH through YVR, or fly through SEA (if DL decides to fly SEA-HND).

LAXintl wrote:

Narita is dead for DL. Per Ed Bastian comments in Airline Weekly few months back --

"Narita in its heyday, I think we had 20 airports and beyonds that we carried past there and it never was terribly profitable. Flying to Japan was good, but the airplanes stopped there and it was poor utilization flying we were doing a lot of intra region. Today, we’re down to less than a handful of routes beyond Narita, but by shifting over to Seoul we have 80 beyonds that we can serve. We knew we were going to lose our footprint in Narita over time with Haneda opening. So it gives us a great outlet to Asia by using Incheon instead. Its probably only matter of time before we are out of Narita completely."

As far as the slots - per Vasu Raja VP Planning at AA, he stated he believed there would likely be 8 total slots for US-Japan service allocated, which means, Japanese carriers would receive 4, with the other 4 given to the US DOT to hand out.

Ouch only four slots for US carriers. So realistically 2 slots at most for DL. And they were the only ones to get 2 slots last time so who knows if they can manage to get 2 this go around.

Interesting indeed that PDX is connected to NRT when SLC is not meaning it could continue to be a stand alone flight to NRT along with the HNL flights all of which have no real feed on both ends. I believe we will see SEA and DTW-HND added whether either one remains connected to NRT time will tell. Also I think Delta will try to move the MSP HND slot to ATL thus discontinuing MSP-HND hence the push to start MSP-PVG to compensate for the loss of the HND flight. If they don't succeed in moving the MSP HND slot to ATL it will be interesting to see what they do with ATL-TYO. As far as MNL and SIN I think they will just drop those and use the KE/DL JV to get passengers to those destinations just like they are doing with HKG. I still see Delta at best getting only 2 slots.

mpdpilot wrote:

Second, I think PDX's Asian flight needs to be moved to HND arguably sooner rather than later as it is solely for O&D, any connections can go via SEA just a short flight away. For this reason though I think no mater what PDX holds on to its Tokyo flight. Without it, Delta is no longer the international career of choice in Portland.

klm617 wrote:

Interesting indeed that PDX is connected to NRT when SLC is not meaning it could continue to be a stand alone flight to NRT along with the HNL flights all of which have no real feed on both ends.

PDX-TYO isn't going anywhere. It's the crux of the Nike account.

klm617 wrote:

Interesting indeed that PDX is connected to NRT when SLC is not meaning it could continue to be a stand alone flight to NRT along with the HNL flights all of which have no real feed on both ends. I believe we will see SEA and DTW-HND added whether either one remains connected to NRT time will tell. Also I think Delta will try to move the MSP HND slot to ATL thus discontinuing MSP-HND hence the push to start MSP-PVG to compensate for the loss of the HND flight. If they don't succeed in moving the MSP HND slot to ATL it will be interesting to see what they do with ATL-TYO. As far as MNL and SIN I think they will just drop those and use the KE/DL JV to get passengers to those destinations just like they are doing with HKG. I still see Delta at best getting only 2 slots.

With only 4 slots to the US carriers, I would guess:1 to AA, 1 to UA, and 2 for DL because of the AA/UA JVs. DL will still probably argue they should get 3 slots at SEA, DTW, and ATL... but I can't imagine the DOT would completely leave out AA or UA.

FWIW, the current daytime HND slots are 1x HA (HNL), 2x DL (LAX, MSP), 1x UA (SFO), 1x AA (LAX) and 2x JL (SFO, JFK), 3x NH (LAX, ORD, JFK)

kavok wrote:

klm617 wrote:

With only 4 slots to the US carriers, I would guess:1 to AA, 1 to UA, and 2 for DL because of the AA/UA JVs. DL will still probably argue they should get 3 slots at SEA, DTW, and ATL... but I can't imagine the DOT would completely leave out AA or UA.

FWIW, the current daytime HND slots are 1x HA (HNL), 2x DL (LAX, MSP), 1x UA (SFO), 1x AA (LAX) and 2x JL (SFO, JFK), 3x NH (LAX, ORD, JFK)

If SQ adds SEA-SIN, I can see DL getting out of the NRT-SIN tag... in fact, I expect that to happen regardless. So, if DL gets two HND slots, presumably we are looking at SEA and DTW or ATL, with DTW having a slight edge, IMO, due to less circuity for service to larger east-of-Mississippi markets.

UA/AA each get one, and UA probably goes to EWR while DFW is likely for AA.

On a side note, any ideas what UA will do with another slot?

psa1011 wrote:

On a side note, any ideas what UA will do with another slot?

A few years ago at crew forum it was mentioned they wished to offer a Haneda link from both ORD and EWR. In years since, JV partner ANA has managed to connect HND to both Chicago and NYC, so not sure what the priority would be now. Maybe IAD, or looking at pure O&D demand possibly LAX instead?

They also stated at one time, a nighttime slot award could be used for a GUM if it became available.

FSDan wrote:

With ATL, the question is whether the best course of action would be to keep it as ATL-NRT, try to move the MSP-HND flight to ATL-HND while dropping MSP-TYO, or drop ATL-TYO and keep MSP-HND. Of course, if DL gets 3 more HND slots, this question would be moot.

There are good arguments about which airport it belongs at, but I don’t understand the idea that ATL-TYO is in danger of losing service altogether. It has a long history of service with no feed on the TYO end. It connects one of the world’s largest cities to the world’s largest hub. That hub is located in a region with both a strong history and increasing Japanese FDI. It is the most convenient link to Japan for an enormous chunk of the US and Caribbean.

Why would it be in danger?

Cubsrule wrote:

FSDan wrote:

With ATL, the question is whether the best course of action would be to keep it as ATL-NRT, try to move the MSP-HND flight to ATL-HND while dropping MSP-TYO, or drop ATL-TYO and keep MSP-HND. Of course, if DL gets 3 more HND slots, this question would be moot.

There are good arguments about which airport it belongs at, but I don’t understand the idea that ATL-TYO is in danger of losing service altogether. It has a long history of service with no feed on the TYO end. It connects one of the world’s largest cities to the world’s largest hub. That hub is located in a region with both a strong history and increasing Japanese FDI. It is the most convenient link to Japan for an enormous chunk of the US and Caribbean.

Why would it be in danger?

LAX, SEA, DTW, MSP, and ATL can all make strong cases why they should be served by DL to HND. But if there aren’t enough slots to go around, there is a decent chance someone gets dropped. That is the issue.

kavok wrote:

Cubsrule wrote:

FSDan wrote:

With ATL, the question is whether the best course of action would be to keep it as ATL-NRT, try to move the MSP-HND flight to ATL-HND while dropping MSP-TYO, or drop ATL-TYO and keep MSP-HND. Of course, if DL gets 3 more HND slots, this question would be moot.

There are good arguments about which airport it belongs at, but I don’t understand the idea that ATL-TYO is in danger of losing service altogether. It has a long history of service with no feed on the TYO end. It connects one of the world’s largest cities to the world’s largest hub. That hub is located in a region with both a strong history and increasing Japanese FDI. It is the most convenient link to Japan for an enormous chunk of the US and Caribbean.

Why would it be in danger?

LAX, SEA, DTW, MSP, and ATL can all make strong cases why they should be served by DL to HND. But if there aren’t enough slots to go around, there is a decent chance someone gets dropped. That is the issue.

I guess I’m confused about the premise that having service to all of those places is not worth a split operation for a while. Certainly we saw in London that the US carriers stuck around LGW until (and only until) they had suitable LHR access. Why is Tokyo different?

Cubsrule wrote:

kavok wrote:

Cubsrule wrote:

There are good arguments about which airport it belongs at, but I don’t understand the idea that ATL-TYO is in danger of losing service altogether. It has a long history of service with no feed on the TYO end. It connects one of the world’s largest cities to the world’s largest hub. That hub is located in a region with both a strong history and increasing Japanese FDI. It is the most convenient link to Japan for an enormous chunk of the US and Caribbean.

Why would it be in danger?

LAX, SEA, DTW, MSP, and ATL can all make strong cases why they should be served by DL to HND. But if there aren’t enough slots to go around, there is a decent chance someone gets dropped. That is the issue.

I guess I’m confused about the premise that having service to all of those places is not worth a split operation for a while. Certainly we saw in London that the US carriers stuck around LGW until (and only until) they had suitable LHR access. Why is Tokyo different?

FWIW, I don't see ATL losing its TYO service. If DL wanted to get completely out of NRT, I think it would be much more likely for MSP-HND to get dropped in favor of ATL-HND than for the reverse to happen. I'm not sure what ATL-TYO O&D numbers look like, but they have to be higher than the ~30 PDEW on MSP-TYO. Add in connections (especially to MCO, I'd think), and ATL-TYO seems like a route that should probably stick around for the foreseeable future.

Cubsrule wrote:

kavok wrote:

Cubsrule wrote:

There are good arguments about which airport it belongs at, but I don’t understand the idea that ATL-TYO is in danger of losing service altogether. It has a long history of service with no feed on the TYO end. It connects one of the world’s largest cities to the world’s largest hub. That hub is located in a region with both a strong history and increasing Japanese FDI. It is the most convenient link to Japan for an enormous chunk of the US and Caribbean.

Why would it be in danger?

LAX, SEA, DTW, MSP, and ATL can all make strong cases why they should be served by DL to HND. But if there aren’t enough slots to go around, there is a decent chance someone gets dropped. That is the issue.

I guess I’m confused about the premise that having service to all of those places is not worth a split operation for a while. Certainly we saw in London that the US carriers stuck around LGW until (and only until) they had suitable LHR access. Why is Tokyo different?

I agree. DL had NRT service to ATL prior to the merger with NW (thus, the NRT hub). Even if DL did not get ATL-HND (I think they would as it would be the only SE service), I suspect DL would keep NRT.

Cubsrule wrote:

kavok wrote:

Cubsrule wrote:

There are good arguments about which airport it belongs at, but I don’t understand the idea that ATL-TYO is in danger of losing service altogether. It has a long history of service with no feed on the TYO end. It connects one of the world’s largest cities to the world’s largest hub. That hub is located in a region with both a strong history and increasing Japanese FDI. It is the most convenient link to Japan for an enormous chunk of the US and Caribbean.

Why would it be in danger?

LAX, SEA, DTW, MSP, and ATL can all make strong cases why they should be served by DL to HND. But if there aren’t enough slots to go around, there is a decent chance someone gets dropped. That is the issue.

I guess I’m confused about the premise that having service to all of those places is not worth a split operation for a while. Certainly we saw in London that the US carriers stuck around LGW until (and only until) they had suitable LHR access. Why is Tokyo different?

It isn't

that is what will happen for all three (AA, UA and DL) they will continue to split operations till they can move everything to HND.

If DL only gets two slots my guess is that SEA and PDX will remain at NRT, mostly because both are within the range of the smaller 763. DL can them concentrate the 359 at HND with flights to ATL MSP DTW and LAX while NRT gets the 763 to SEA PDX and HNL, with SIN and MNL traffic flowing through the KE JV.

gwrudolph wrote:

What about United? Do we think they might request some slots and start slowly transitioning as well?

IMO I think UA needs NRT more than DL to connect to NHs international network. Using a quick Wikipedia glance over NH service from both NRT and HND, it seems to me (I'd love to be proven wrong) that NH has more service to east Asia from NRT than HND (not that HND doesnt have a resectable east Asian portfolio for NH). However UA can obviously use HND for Tokyo O&D and connections to NHs domestic network from there, which is better than their domestic network from NRT.

kavok wrote:

FWIW, the current daytime HND slots are 1x HA (HNL), 2x DL (LAX, MSP), 1x UA (SFO), 1x AA (LAX) and 2x JL (SFO, JFK), 3x NH (LAX, ORD, JFK)

So today we have:
Star 4
One 3
DL 2
HA 1

If we assume that the Japanese carriers will get 4 of the potential 8 slots, and they split them, that will leave us with:
Star 6
One 5
DL 2
HA 1

In the past, the DOT has taken alliances into consideration. If they do that again, I would believe UA would get zero, DL three, and the remaining spot goes to either HA and AA. I think a flight to DFW would be seen as more benificial to the country as opposed to a flight to Hawaii.

If DOT goes that route, it would end up:
Star 6
One 6
DL 5
HA 1

If this comes to pass, I can see DL keeping PDX/HNL at NRT, moving ATL,SEA,DTW to HND, and, since the upper Midwest is now covered by DTW, moving MSP to JFK (if they are allowed to).

I see the DTW fanboys are drooling at the chance to get that HND slot...again.

Based on recent allocations, DOT will consider alliances and JVs in ongoing allocations. I think this favors DL, and means only beach markets will remain ex-NRT on DL. I think NRT/beach markets, and esp., HNL, will remain, since FUK, KIX, and NGO have DL beach market service, with good LFs. NRT/beach markets is no different from FUK, KIX, and NGO: good LFs, good yields, even when there was a 763 RON in NGO. New sked HNL/NGO avoids the RON. NGO/HNL LF is often 100%.

Both AA and UA have alliances with airlines in TYO. DL doesn't have that. So it wouldn't matter which airport they used in TYO. DL would be better if they flew more flights to China and Seoul. There are many more options for them there.

Bearing in mind that China is a blood bath on yields, and DL's JV with KE is metal neutral to ICN, that leaves high yield beach markets ex-NRT as survivors. DL won't waste an HND slot on HNL... not with the HA/JL JV and NH's Honu service looming.

So at the “ Ten year mark of DL/NW “. DELTA does what they do best....... dismanle previous footprint and rebrand. NRT the crown jewel of the NW Orient name, now a relic of times gone!

xdlx wrote:

So at the “ Ten year mark of DL/NW “. DELTA does what they do best....... dismanle previous footprint and rebrand. NRT the crown jewel of the NW Orient name, now a relic of times gone!

Market conditions change, you can either evolve or die. I’m about as big of a NW fanboy as you can get...but let’s be real

xdlx wrote:

So at the “ Ten year mark of DL/NW “. DELTA does what they do best....... dismanle previous footprint and rebrand. NRT the crown jewel of the NW Orient name, now a relic of times gone!

The NRT operation made sense in a world where you had to fly a 747 to get across the Pacific, and with NW's limited fleet. With smaller equipment that could fly the distance, opening of long-haul operations from HND, growth of joint ventures, and growth of Asian carriers flying transpacific flights, it was inevitable that the NRT operation was downsized. NW probably would have done the same thing as an independent carrier - especially given their 787 order.

jetblueguy22 wrote:

xdlx wrote:

So at the “ Ten year mark of DL/NW “. DELTA does what they do best....... dismanle previous footprint and rebrand. NRT the crown jewel of the NW Orient name, now a relic of times gone!

Market conditions change, you can either evolve or die. I’m about as big of a NW fanboy as you can get...but let’s be real

Agreed, jetblueguy22. There will never be an airline like NW for me. 9/11 and the ensuing bankcrupties, new airline models overflying NRT, opening of HND to international flights, hubs in DTW/MSP/MEM, all these factors made NW a losing economic proposition, and DL too with its own set of factors since they filed for bankruptcy on the same day. Together they have created the most respected (?) and most profitable (?) airline in the world. And a lot of the DL DNA came from NW. I've transferred over to DL, but not as wholeheartedly. I even root for AS and DL in SEA.

Operating in an extremely expensive place like Tokyo has alot of cost. I don't see Delta operating NRT for 2 or 3 flights. I see them pushing traffic to HND even if that means less seats and destinations it probably means more money overall. Delta is going to be looking for NRT closure sooner than later.

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

Operating in an extremely expensive place like Tokyo has alot of cost. I don't see Delta operating NRT for 2 or 3 flights. I see them pushing traffic to HND even if that means less seats and destinations it probably means more money overall. Delta is going to be looking for NRT closure sooner than later.

DL has plenty of international destinations with just 1 flight...KE can also handle a lot of things at the airport, too.

mpdpilot wrote:

Second, I think PDX's Asian flight needs to be moved to HND arguably sooner rather than later as it is solely for O&D, any connections can go via SEA just a short flight away. For this reason though I think no mater what PDX holds on to its Tokyo flight. Without it, Delta is no longer the international career of choice in Portland.

With DL shifting away from connections at NRT, I could see Delta add some high O&D flights from NRT to stay relevant in the Tokyo market as well but those are less certain.

Your thoughts on PDX-HND are very interesting. The two main reasons that Delta likely still operates PDX-Tokyo at all is 1). There is a very large O&D market for PDX-Tokyo, and the flight has continued to do very well, even with only minimal feed on both sides. 2). Corporate contracts with Nike certainly help boost this route as well.

Personally, I think PDX-HND wouldn't be such a bad idea for them. If Nike truly uses this flight a lot, then I think they would greatly benefit from being closer to Tokyo's city center, and since NRT is further away from the city center, it is less appealing to business travelers. If this route is truly "business oriented" I think it only makes sense to shift the route to a more appealing/convenient airport for them to use.

With that being said though, it's very unrealistic that Delta would do this. Since HND is extremely limited in available slots, using a slot on a route that originates from a non-hub city doesn't seem economically viable. Maybe the overall routing for the airplane would be LAX-HND-PDX-HND-LAX, or something to that degree. At least with Seattle, more connections can be made on the U.S. side, but then again, that can also be used through their LAX-HND route. SEA-HND didn't work (at the time it was dropped, that is--it might be able to work now), and the business market in Seattle is so much greater than it is in Portland. I don't think one business (Nike) would be nearly enough for the flight to do well. Even with the strong O&D traffic to/from PDX and Tokyo, I would still be hesitant on it's overall long-term success. Any route from Seattle is going to have a higher O&D than Portland (I think MFR is the only exception to this. Even EUG and RDM have higher O&D to Seattle than to Portland). Unfortunately, that's just a fact, whether you like it or not. And given that Seattle has a lot more than just one business market, the route could probably go to use better from Seattle than from Portland in the long-run. Although for me living in the Portland area, I would love the route to come to PDX!

mpdpilot wrote:

This is a very interesting discussion. I think this is where the final product for Delta goes:

LAX-HND
SEA-HND
SEA-NRT
PDX-HND
MSP-HND
DTW-HND
ATL-HND
HNL-NRT
KOA-NRT (future)

Here is why I think this is the final product. First, I think SEA could totally serve both NRT and HND as it is the lowest cost NRT flight and the Asia gateway. Remember there are still likely a fair number of people wanting to go to NRT both people in the US and people around NRT in Japan. One daily flight with a 767 could make sense here, especially to maintain DL's image in Japan. This would also work with the NRT-HNL flights which would for sure remain at NRT unless DL got unlimited HND slots.

Second, I think PDX's Asian flight needs to be moved to HND arguably sooner rather than later as it is solely for O&D, any connections can go via SEA just a short flight away. For this reason though I think no mater what PDX holds on to its Tokyo flight. Without it, Delta is no longer the international career of choice in Portland.

With DL shifting away from connections at NRT, I could see Delta add some high O&D flights from NRT to stay relevant in the Tokyo market as well but those are less certain.

With the focus shifting to ICN, I wouldn't rule out a ICN-SIN, or ICN-MNL tag or SEA/LAX-SIN or SEA/DTW-MNL in the future. I think similar to DL across the atlantic, there is some benefit for both KE and DL for them to both be in the large markets. While a large majority of the USA-SIN market is still 1-stop, that is changing and the same goes for MNL. Relying 100% on KE for those destinations is just not feasible long term.

I definitely think it'd be a huge loss for Delta is they got rid of the Tokyo flight from Portland. As someone had said previously, Delta would lose its appeal as the international carrier at PDX (NRT, AMS and LHR). I think Delta has a pretty good base of frequent flyers in Portland that it would be detrimental to their current success out of the market to lose their only nonstop to Asia.

Now if another carrier starts PDX-TYO, then that's a different story. Delta should feel threatened if someone else comes into the route, but as long as DL stays put with PDX-TYO, I don't see anyone else entering the market. But I could see DL/KE adding a flight to ICN for the connections. This would be alongside the the Tokyo flight if there is demand (O&D) from PDX-TYO, which sounds like there is.

ocracoke wrote:

In the past, the DOT has taken alliances into consideration. If they do that again, I would believe UA would get zero, DL three, and the remaining spot goes to either HA and AA. I think a flight to DFW would be seen as more benificial to the country as opposed to a flight to Hawaii.

If DOT goes that route, it would end up:
Star 6
One 6
DL 5
HA 1

If this comes to pass, I can see DL keeping PDX/HNL at NRT, moving ATL,SEA,DTW to HND, and, since the upper Midwest is now covered by DTW, moving MSP to JFK (if they are allowed to).

Good call - hopefully the DOT does take that into account! My ideal shakeout of the new slots:
NH - SEA
NH - IAD
JL - LAX
JL - ORD
AA - DFW
DL - SEA
DL - DTW
DL - ATL

In that scenario, I think I'd also prefer to see DL move the MSP-HND service to JFK-HND, with MSP having ICN and PVG nonstops to cover Asia. Then bite the bullet and add JFK-HKG on the 77L with Delta One Suites, and DL has pretty good coverage of Asia.