Gasman wrote:When you wind it back, there's very little we actually know.
1. We know that NZ have voiced plans to expand further into North & South America. But we haven't been given a timeline, and it actually happening is far from a certainty even if the intent is genuine.
2. NZ would require additional aircraft from what they currently have to execute these plans.
3. There are several contenders from both Boeing and Airbus but they all would come with compromises.
4. We have no idea what (if any) discussions are taking place with the manufacturers, how far along they are, or when to expect an announcement. An announcement tomorrow, next year or in three years would all be consistent with how NZ have played it.
5. Purchase price will have a major impact on the decision made and that's something we won't have a clue on. No one is suggesting the A380 as a contender. But if Airbus suddenly donated six A380s to NZ for free; that would pretty quickly become the perfect aircraft for the network.
I actually like this thinking. Let's keep it simple, not get too creative.
To add to this.
1. NZ has for some time been public their focus and strategy is Pacific Rim, focusing on frequency and direct city pairing over, capacity and hub flying.
2. NZ has confirmed they are talking with both Airbus and Boeing exploring the A350 and 77X aircraft.
3. NZ has little to no extra capacity in its current fleet, remembering SGN/HND have both been axed as a result of the 789 fleet issues.
4. NZ is replacing it's 'aging' 777 fleet, starting with the 772 in 2022-2024. They will be approaching 20 years old.
5. NZ has over the years talked openly about wanting to fly deeper into the USA. IAH and ORD are examples of this.
6. NZ has previously talked about growing North Asia, they've also stated their current focus is PVG but the aircraft plans are for mid next decade, will they still only be focused on PVG then. South America is also an area of 'nurturing' but is far less mature as a market than the likes of the USA and Asia.
7. NZ has a newish 789 fleet where the majority of the aircraft are owned.
8. The 789 does 3 jobs nicely, offers decent range, high premium config (NZ standard) and high economy numbers, what it doesn't offer is all 3. The 772 does but isn't efficient enough in today's climate.
Less factual and more opinion on the market and business.
How 'big' does NZ want to become, while a fleet of around 27-30 wide-body aircraft is nice if this is grown to 40-45 (a massive increase I admit) it greatly exposes NZ's business to any future geopolitical issues that impact air travel. NZ is an end of line carrier made up largely of leisure & VFR based customers. Should air travel demand drop, NZ may be forced to reduce services or exit routes leaving costly assets on the ground and a large workforce with no work. Just something to be conscious of.