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UA777EWRTLV
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UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sat Nov 03, 2018 3:47 am

https://hub.united.com/united-airlines- ... 09544.html

Service would start in June 2020 on a 777-200ER.

How many slots are available and who else is applying for them?
 
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UPlog
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sat Nov 03, 2018 4:00 am

Long existing discussion

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1393121

Both DL and UA proposing new China service with potentially vacated authorities.
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FA9295
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sat Nov 03, 2018 4:03 am

UPlog wrote:
Long existing discussion

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1393121

Both DL and UA proposing new China service with potentially vacated authorities.

If any mods see this... why was the initial thread on this topic merged with that one? I think UA announcing this deserves it's own thread.
 
mattnrsa
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sat Nov 03, 2018 4:09 am

UPlog wrote:
Long existing discussion

The title of that thread only references AA’s decision to reduce ORD-Asia flying. A reader would not intuitively know to go there for news on DL and UA route applications.

UA’s decision to apply for a second EWR-PVG flight deserves its own thread, as it’s interesting to see that this is the new route UA decided to pursue out of all the possibilities.
 
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janders
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sat Nov 03, 2018 4:12 am

UA application is directly tied to AA.

AA asked DOT for dormancy to retain their rights, while DL and UA opposed this and instead are offering their own China services with potentially vacated authority.

The UA case is very much tied into the outcome of what happens with the AA dormancy request.

The AA thread is a nice unified place to follow the applications and see what DOT does.
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BobbyPSP
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sat Nov 03, 2018 4:15 am

janders wrote:
UA application is directly tied to AA.

AA asked DOT for dormancy to retain their rights, while DL and UA opposed this and instead are offering their own China services with potentially vacated authority.

The UA case is very much tied into the outcome of what happens with the AA dormancy request.

The AA thread is a nice unified place to follow the applications and see what DOT does.


I disagree. A quick thread showing another airlines initiatives is relevant. Some of these threads are just too long. This way it's clear and concise
 
mattnrsa
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sat Nov 03, 2018 4:19 am

janders wrote:
The AA thread is a nice unified place to follow the applications and see what DOT does.

The DL and UA applications give interesting insight into their strategies in China and what they see as the routes with the post potential. Merging their applications into a thread that only references AA in the title would cause most readers to miss this glimpse into their route planning focuses.

Yes these new routes (if approved) would be partially a result of AA decisions, but these applications speak to so much more than just being some trivial byproduct or offshoot of AA planning, ending up as the 300th post of a thread that is many months old.
 
ual763
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sat Nov 03, 2018 4:51 am

FA9295 wrote:
UPlog wrote:
Long existing discussion

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1393121

Both DL and UA proposing new China service with potentially vacated authorities.

If any mods see this... why was the initial thread on this topic merged with that one? I think UA announcing this deserves it's own thread.


Not to mention, the merge practically deleted every single comment on that new thread. There were some interesting discussions that are now gone forever. I had multiple quotes, but unfortunately cannot see them.
From flying to the NOTAM office
 
mattnrsa
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sat Nov 03, 2018 5:07 am

Interesting that the application is for a second EWR-PVG versus IAD-PVG or even something from IAH. Looks like the strength of EWR and relative lack of competition (compared to the amount of flights from the west coast) make this route appealing.
 
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c933103
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sat Nov 03, 2018 5:16 am

What are DL proposing?
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qf789
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sat Nov 03, 2018 5:18 am

Just to clarify this is worthy of having its own thread, so it will remain as is for now
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propero
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sat Nov 03, 2018 5:21 am

Lame. Should’ve applied for IAH and lose the same amount of money while actually having some chance of getting the route awarded, but I guess whoever in Network Planning applied for the original HAV frequencies is still in charge. “Let’s go big! Daily to EWR and 1x weekly to IAH!” And how has that decision ended up?
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sat Nov 03, 2018 8:03 am

propero wrote:
Lame. Should’ve applied for IAH and lose the same amount of money while actually having some chance of getting the route awarded, but I guess whoever in Network Planning applied for the original HAV frequencies is still in charge. “Let’s go big! Daily to EWR and 1x weekly to IAH!” And how has that decision ended up?


EWR is a significantly larger local market. I’m pretty confident to say that if UA felt there was money to be made on IAH-PVG then they’d have applied for it, precisely because they would be more likely to be awarded the authority as a new route. In this case a second daily EWR is almost certainly going to make more money.
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eamondzhang
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sat Nov 03, 2018 9:25 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
propero wrote:
Lame. Should’ve applied for IAH and lose the same amount of money while actually having some chance of getting the route awarded, but I guess whoever in Network Planning applied for the original HAV frequencies is still in charge. “Let’s go big! Daily to EWR and 1x weekly to IAH!” And how has that decision ended up?


EWR is a significantly larger local market. I’m pretty confident to say that if UA felt there was money to be made on IAH-PVG then they’d have applied for it, precisely because they would be more likely to be awarded the authority as a new route. In this case a second daily EWR is almost certainly going to make more money.

Indeed, given the amount of Chinese population in NY area and how MU is able to constantly fill the 2x daily JFK flight to grim (and MU can fill the whole J on both flights on an almost daily basis). I would say any need for a IAH-China flight is covered by CA's PEK flight and other domestic and international transits quite nicely already.

Michael
 
fun2fly
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sat Nov 03, 2018 11:41 am

eamondzhang wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
propero wrote:
Lame. Should’ve applied for IAH and lose the same amount of money while actually having some chance of getting the route awarded, but I guess whoever in Network Planning applied for the original HAV frequencies is still in charge. “Let’s go big! Daily to EWR and 1x weekly to IAH!” And how has that decision ended up?


EWR is a significantly larger local market. I’m pretty confident to say that if UA felt there was money to be made on IAH-PVG then they’d have applied for it, precisely because they would be more likely to be awarded the authority as a new route. In this case a second daily EWR is almost certainly going to make more money.

Indeed, given the amount of Chinese population in NY area and how MU is able to constantly fill the 2x daily JFK flight to grim (and MU can fill the whole J on both flights on an almost daily basis). I would say any need for a IAH-China flight is covered by CA's PEK flight and other domestic and international transits quite nicely already.

Michael


Two factors here most likely. First, depending on where you live you can connect to PEK via SFO, LAX, ORD and EWR so the entire country is covered. While I also thought IAD would be the winner, I guess they know where they sell the BF tickets. Second, UA probably planned on putting a 77W on this route at some point to increase capacity. Now, they can go with two 772's or a 789/772 combo so the number of BF tickets would not increase too much over a 77W. Either way, it shows their hand on what route is up next for China frequencies. It will be interesting to see the award of either additional NYC or MSP (new).

The most interesting point here is that UA feels it could fill 2 planes daily from NYC and AA doesn't feel they could fill one (they could have applied to transfer, no?). It's a hint on who runs the TPAC market in NYC.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sat Nov 03, 2018 12:43 pm

fun2fly wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:

EWR is a significantly larger local market. I’m pretty confident to say that if UA felt there was money to be made on IAH-PVG then they’d have applied for it, precisely because they would be more likely to be awarded the authority as a new route. In this case a second daily EWR is almost certainly going to make more money.

Indeed, given the amount of Chinese population in NY area and how MU is able to constantly fill the 2x daily JFK flight to grim (and MU can fill the whole J on both flights on an almost daily basis). I would say any need for a IAH-China flight is covered by CA's PEK flight and other domestic and international transits quite nicely already.

Michael


Two factors here most likely. First, depending on where you live you can connect to PEK via SFO, LAX, ORD and EWR so the entire country is covered. While I also thought IAD would be the winner, I guess they know where they sell the BF tickets. Second, UA probably planned on putting a 77W on this route at some point to increase capacity. Now, they can go with two 772's or a 789/772 combo so the number of BF tickets would not increase too much over a 77W. Either way, it shows their hand on what route is up next for China frequencies. It will be interesting to see the award of either additional NYC or MSP (new).

The most interesting point here is that UA feels it could fill 2 planes daily from NYC and AA doesn't feel they could fill one (they could have applied to transfer, no?). It's a hint on who runs the TPAC market in NYC.


AA’s frequency is coming from ORD. AA at ORD is a a bit of a paradox, for domestic traffic they are pretty much the same size as UA (maybe even slightly larger?) but UA is very dominant for international traffic. International is the reason that UA is so much larger than AA at ORD. Given how insignificant their presence at JFK is now, I strongly doubt that AA could make JFK-PVG work if they are loosing money on ORD-PVG.
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aemoreira1981
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sat Nov 03, 2018 1:29 pm

Shanghai is the economic capital of China, but can the market really support 4 daily nonstops on PVG to NYC? Could UA support service to secondary China from EWR with PVG up-gauged to a B77W?
 
gwrudolph
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sat Nov 03, 2018 2:13 pm

Good. I hope they (or DL) are awarded the AA frequencies. AA should not be allowed to sit on them when other carriers want them. Use it or lose it!

BTW, from what city is DL proposing new service to PVG?
 
Rdh3e
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sat Nov 03, 2018 2:30 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
AA’s frequency is coming from ORD. AA at ORD is a a bit of a paradox, for domestic traffic they are pretty much the same size as UA (maybe even slightly larger?) but UA is very dominant for international traffic. International is the reason that UA is so much larger than AA at ORD. Given how insignificant their presence at JFK is now, I strongly doubt that AA could make JFK-PVG work if they are loosing money on ORD-PVG.

UA is about 30% larger than AA domestically out of ORD.
 
MaverickM11
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sat Nov 03, 2018 2:55 pm

eamondzhang wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
propero wrote:
Lame. Should’ve applied for IAH and lose the same amount of money while actually having some chance of getting the route awarded, but I guess whoever in Network Planning applied for the original HAV frequencies is still in charge. “Let’s go big! Daily to EWR and 1x weekly to IAH!” And how has that decision ended up?


EWR is a significantly larger local market. I’m pretty confident to say that if UA felt there was money to be made on IAH-PVG then they’d have applied for it, precisely because they would be more likely to be awarded the authority as a new route. In this case a second daily EWR is almost certainly going to make more money.

Indeed, given the amount of Chinese population in NY area and how MU is able to constantly fill the 2x daily JFK flight to grim (and MU can fill the whole J on both flights on an almost daily basis). I would say any need for a IAH-China flight is covered by CA's PEK flight and other domestic and international transits quite nicely already.

Michael

The $4-500rt all in fares help fill up those JFK China flights
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tphuang
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sat Nov 03, 2018 3:56 pm

Well there is certainly enough demand out of ewr for another flight. I can tell you that. Anyone from new jersey and even as far as Philly would be in the catchment area.

But this is also about the lowest yielding flight imaginable. When I do NYC to South East Asia flights in business,. China eastern is always the cheapest at sub $2500 rt. That should tell you how much direct j demand there is on this route. Great for me, another NYC to pvg flight ensures I never have to pay more than $3000 for a rt flight with flat bed seating to anywhere in East Asia.
 
SFOtoORD
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sat Nov 03, 2018 5:17 pm

gwrudolph wrote:
Good. I hope they (or DL) are awarded the AA frequencies. AA should not be allowed to sit on them when other carriers want them. Use it or lose it!

BTW, from what city is DL proposing new service to PVG?


I wonder how the June 2020 start date will be weighed.
 
jbs2886
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sat Nov 03, 2018 5:47 pm

SFOtoORD wrote:
gwrudolph wrote:
Good. I hope they (or DL) are awarded the AA frequencies. AA should not be allowed to sit on them when other carriers want them. Use it or lose it!

BTW, from what city is DL proposing new service to PVG?


I wonder how the June 2020 start date will be weighed.


Check out the proposals, the timeline is actually consistent (slightly better than average) with previous start-up dates. In fact, this is better because other requests have required extensions due to slot issues on the Chinese side.
 
SFOtoORD
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sat Nov 03, 2018 5:54 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:
gwrudolph wrote:
Good. I hope they (or DL) are awarded the AA frequencies. AA should not be allowed to sit on them when other carriers want them. Use it or lose it!

BTW, from what city is DL proposing new service to PVG?


I wonder how the June 2020 start date will be weighed.


Check out the proposals, the timeline is actually consistent (slightly better than average) with previous start-up dates. In fact, this is better because other requests have required extensions due to slot issues on the Chinese side.


Good point on previous slot issues. I do think this is a good move for UA to further strengthen their China position. They seem to have fared the fare wars in China much better than AA. Assume that is the result of their history in China and Corp contracts.
 
strfyr51
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sat Nov 03, 2018 6:52 pm

This article brings back memories, American and Continental Both sought to deny United ATSB loans to shore up the Pensions, which caused United to abrogate their Pensions as they wanted United to split up and Sell the Pacific division acquired from Pan AM between them.. United declared CH-11 instead and kept the Pacific Division which is pretty much the Backbone of the airline today. American never tried to duplicate the Asian routes and Delta pretty much abandoned the Northwest Asian routes. I find it No Wonder why United is so dominant across the Pacific of American Carriers
 
jayunited
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sat Nov 03, 2018 8:54 pm

I was hoping IAD-PVG would be next on the list but I guess UA feels its better to go daily double than launch IAD-PVG

RyanairGuru wrote:

AA’s frequency is coming from ORD. AA at ORD is a a bit of a paradox, for domestic traffic they are pretty much the same size as UA (maybe even slightly larger?) but UA is very dominant for international traffic. International is the reason that UA is so much larger than AA at ORD. Given how insignificant their presence at JFK is now, I strongly doubt that AA could make JFK-PVG work if they are loosing money on ORD-PVG.


United is actually larger at ORD than AA, UA has more domestic flights year around than AA I think it fluctuates between 25%-30% in favor of UA.
As far as AA is concerned I still stand behind what I said in the AA China thread, which was AA has sacrificed ORD-China to make LAX-China work. UA’s ORD-China flights attract a sizable O&D crowd but we are still dependent on connecting traffic. Take away the connecting traffic or reduce that traffic and UA would have problems as well. UA flights at EWR and SFO do not have a heavy dependence on connecting traffic at ORD I would say its probably a 50-50 or 60-40 split between O&D and connecting traffic.
 
klakzky123
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sat Nov 03, 2018 11:15 pm

gwrudolph wrote:
Good. I hope they (or DL) are awarded the AA frequencies. AA should not be allowed to sit on them when other carriers want them. Use it or lose it!

BTW, from what city is DL proposing new service to PVG?


DL is proposing MSP-PVG. Given that MSP doesn't have a flight currently, I'd guess they would get priority but DL's position is assuming AA loses its frequencies, there will be room for both the UA and DL flights.
 
tphuang
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sun Nov 04, 2018 12:16 am

SFOtoORD wrote:
Good point on previous slot issues. I do think this is a good move for UA to further strengthen their China position. They seem to have fared the fare wars in China much better than AA. Assume that is the result of their history in China and Corp contracts.


Both EWR and SFO have a lot of O&D to China. They are good fortress hubs to have if you want to be strong in China or Asia in general. Although given the fare numbers out there, I doubt UA is actually making money on the routes on standalone basis.

jayunited wrote:
I was hoping IAD-PVG would be next on the list but I guess UA feels its better to go daily double than launch IAD-PVG

RyanairGuru wrote:

AA’s frequency is coming from ORD. AA at ORD is a a bit of a paradox, for domestic traffic they are pretty much the same size as UA (maybe even slightly larger?) but UA is very dominant for international traffic. International is the reason that UA is so much larger than AA at ORD. Given how insignificant their presence at JFK is now, I strongly doubt that AA could make JFK-PVG work if they are loosing money on ORD-PVG.


United is actually larger at ORD than AA, UA has more domestic flights year around than AA I think it fluctuates between 25%-30% in favor of UA.
As far as AA is concerned I still stand behind what I said in the AA China thread, which was AA has sacrificed ORD-China to make LAX-China work. UA’s ORD-China flights attract a sizable O&D crowd but we are still dependent on connecting traffic. Take away the connecting traffic or reduce that traffic and UA would have problems as well. UA flights at EWR and SFO do not have a heavy dependence on connecting traffic at ORD I would say its probably a 50-50 or 60-40 split between O&D and connecting traffic.


You do need good amount of O&D to China market to work. The connection stuff to China is even lower yielding. And the O&D out of NYC to China is many times higher than DC area.
 
BobbyPSP
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sun Nov 04, 2018 12:28 am

tphuang wrote:
Well there is certainly enough demand out of ewr for another flight. I can tell you that. Anyone from new jersey and even as far as Philly would be in the catchment area.

But this is also about the lowest yielding flight imaginable. When I do NYC to South East Asia flights in business,. China eastern is always the cheapest at sub $2500 rt. That should tell you how much direct j demand there is on this route. Great for me, another NYC to pvg flight ensures I never have to pay more than $3000 for a rt flight with flat bed seating to anywhere in East Asia.


Unless UA is charging the same low price, what you buy on another airline is irrelevant. Much lower costs, much lower fare.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sun Nov 04, 2018 1:04 am

Just to clarify - how are they getting the PVG slots for this? If a slot becomes vacated at PVG, my understanding is it had to go back into the slot pool and be re-allocated according to strict set of guidelines - has UA been allocated a vacated slot by PVG authorities? You can't 'buy' or 'swap' slots at PVG, right?

Cheers,

C.
 
Rdh3e
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sun Nov 04, 2018 1:38 am

klakzky123 wrote:
DL is proposing MSP-PVG. Given that MSP doesn't have a flight currently, I'd guess they would get priority but DL's position is assuming AA loses its frequencies, there will be room for both the UA and DL flights.

Delta has a history of not honoring their proposals. Look at the dance they performed regarding HND. MSP-PVG is highly likely to be unprofitable and it would only be a matter of time until DL is seeking to move it somewhere else. My guess is that they are proposing MSP because they think it'll be attractive to DOT and then they will request to move it shortly after launch to whichever hub they actually wanted the flight at in the first place.

planemanofnz wrote:
Just to clarify - how are they getting the PVG slots for this? If a slot becomes vacated at PVG, my understanding is it had to go back into the slot pool and be re-allocated according to strict set of guidelines - has UA been allocated a vacated slot by PVG authorities? You can't 'buy' or 'swap' slots at PVG, right?

AA has dropped both ORD-China flights they had, they requested "dormancy" so they wouldn't lose them, DL and UA are proposing the DOT deny the dormancy and allocate those slots to them instead.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sun Nov 04, 2018 1:58 am

Rdh3e wrote:
AA has dropped both ORD-China flights they had, they requested "dormancy" so they wouldn't lose them, DL and UA are proposing the DOT deny the dormancy and allocate those slots to them instead.

I'm talking about PVG airport landing slots - something the USDOT has no jurisdiction over?

Cheers,

C.
 
United857
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sun Nov 04, 2018 2:24 am

planemanofnz wrote:
I'm talking about PVG airport landing slots - something the USDOT has no jurisdiction over?

The PVG slots are likely gate space constrained not runway constrained since they have 5 parallel runways that only have to deal with 60% of the movements experienced by ATL, which also has 5 parallel runways. However, the gate space constraint at PVG should go away by then as the airport is opening the new satellite concourse at the end of this year that will almost double the number of gates available, so presumably the slots on the Chinese side should not be too big of a problem.

You can see the new concourse here (the H-shaped concourse at the bottom): https://www.google.com/maps/place/Shanghai+Pudong+International+Airport/@31.1459003,121.8017928,3108m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x35ad8fde769550c1:0xc9e41371c92c355f!8m2!3d31.1443439!4d121.808273
Last edited by United857 on Sun Nov 04, 2018 2:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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SESGDL
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sun Nov 04, 2018 2:25 am

Rdh3e wrote:
klakzky123 wrote:
DL is proposing MSP-PVG. Given that MSP doesn't have a flight currently, I'd guess they would get priority but DL's position is assuming AA loses its frequencies, there will be room for both the UA and DL flights.

Delta has a history of not honoring their proposals. Look at the dance they performed regarding HND. MSP-PVG is highly likely to be unprofitable and it would only be a matter of time until DL is seeking to move it somewhere else. My guess is that they are proposing MSP because they think it'll be attractive to DOT and then they will request to move it shortly after launch to whichever hub they actually wanted the flight at in the first place.

planemanofnz wrote:
Just to clarify - how are they getting the PVG slots for this? If a slot becomes vacated at PVG, my understanding is it had to go back into the slot pool and be re-allocated according to strict set of guidelines - has UA been allocated a vacated slot by PVG authorities? You can't 'buy' or 'swap' slots at PVG, right?

AA has dropped both ORD-China flights they had, they requested "dormancy" so they wouldn't lose them, DL and UA are proposing the DOT deny the dormancy and allocate those slots to them instead.


Considering all of DL’s other viable hubs to China already have service to PVG, there’s nowhere for DL to move the slot to. This is obviously something DL thinks will work, otherwise they would’ve applied for something like LAX-PEK.

Jeremy
 
planemanofnz
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sun Nov 04, 2018 3:07 am

United857 wrote:
The PVG slots are likely gate space constrained not runway constrained since they have 5 parallel runways that only have to deal with 60% of the movements experienced by ATL, which also has 5 parallel runways. However, the gate space constraint at PVG should go away by then as the airport is opening the new satellite concourse at the end of this year that will almost double the number of gates available, so presumably the slots on the Chinese side should not be too big of a problem.

That won't do anything to address the congestion of Shanghai airspace, nor the fact that such airspace is not civilian controlled.

Shanghai is heavily slot restricted - I'm still wondering how UA is getting the slot for this second PVG service, given congestion.

Cheers,

C.
 
sonicruiser
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:23 am

EWR-PVG could use some extra capacity, that said, it would probably be of better use out of a new station like IAH for example.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

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tphuang
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Sun Nov 04, 2018 11:13 am

BobbyPSP wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Well there is certainly enough demand out of ewr for another flight. I can tell you that. Anyone from new jersey and even as far as Philly would be in the catchment area.

But this is also about the lowest yielding flight imaginable. When I do NYC to South East Asia flights in business,. China eastern is always the cheapest at sub $2500 rt. That should tell you how much direct j demand there is on this route. Great for me, another NYC to pvg flight ensures I never have to pay more than $3000 for a rt flight with flat bed seating to anywhere in East Asia.


Unless UA is charging the same low price, what you buy on another airline is irrelevant. Much lower costs, much lower fare.


If there is a legitimate competitor charging a really low price, it limits how much you can charge. There is a reason us carriers have such a tough time to china.
 
mattnrsa
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:45 pm

Is there an estimate regarding when a decision can be expected? Do the UA/DL applications mean a decision on AA’s dormancy request would have to come sooner than if there weren’t any competing route applications?
 
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OA412
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:40 pm

It'll be interesting to see what DOT does. IF dormancy is granted, I do think MSP has an edge. The DOT has historically liked to "spread the wealth," and grant opportunities to new cities/new areas of the country. Obviously EWR has the much larger local market, that's not in question, but I can see the DOT favoring MSP-PVG since there is no existing service in the market. That said, I think this definitely places AA in a difficult position. You have two airlines now saying they're ready, willing, and able to start US-PVG service, and I can see at least 7 of AAs slots coming into play. If so, AA has to decide whether it's willing to lose those slots to a competitor. Given what's been written on this board about yields to China, maybe they're OK losing them. Can the 789 do MIA-PVG? Maybe this is what finally forces AA into the MIA-Asia market?

Rdh3e wrote:
Delta has a history of not honoring their proposals. Look at the dance they performed regarding HND. MSP-PVG is highly likely to be unprofitable and it would only be a matter of time until DL is seeking to move it somewhere else. My guess is that they are proposing MSP because they think it'll be attractive to DOT and then they will request to move it shortly after launch to whichever hub they actually wanted the flight at in the first place.

??? DL already flies to PVG from SEA, LAX, DTW, and ATL. If they wanted, say JFK-PVG, they would've just asked for that. They're applying for MSP-PVG because they want to fly it. The hubs that can support a PVG flight already have one.
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redrooster3
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:41 pm

sonicruiser wrote:
EWR-PVG could use some extra capacity, that said, it would probably be of better use out of a new station like IAH for example.


EWR-PVG should be going 77W if I'm correct. The dates, I can't recall.
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gwrudolph
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Mon Nov 05, 2018 7:09 pm

OA412 wrote:
The DOT has historically liked to "spread the wealth," and grant opportunities to new cities/new areas of the country.


Yes, they do always seem to foolishly do so and it usually ends up with dormancy or givebacks. They need to be a little more realistic on what serves the greatest good. Think HAV, previous China, and HND awards . . .
 
Rdh3e
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Mon Nov 05, 2018 7:40 pm

OA412 wrote:
??? DL already flies to PVG from SEA, LAX, DTW, and ATL. If they wanted, say JFK-PVG, they would've just asked for that. They're applying for MSP-PVG because they want to fly it. The hubs that can support a PVG flight already have one.

DL would certainly like a second LAX I'm sure before MSP. They are just betting on the naivety of the DOT so they can lock down the slot. In DL parlance this is the "better to ask forgiveness" way of doing things.
 
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:45 pm

Rdh3e wrote:
OA412 wrote:
??? DL already flies to PVG from SEA, LAX, DTW, and ATL. If they wanted, say JFK-PVG, they would've just asked for that. They're applying for MSP-PVG because they want to fly it. The hubs that can support a PVG flight already have one.

DL would certainly like a second LAX I'm sure before MSP. They are just betting on the naivety of the DOT so they can lock down the slot. In DL parlance this is the "better to ask forgiveness" way of doing things.


LAX yields are awful as is. Why would DL want a second frequency? MSP is a potential monopoly market if the O&D is sufficient. I know its convenient to bag on MSP asian flights but DL can rack up some nice O&D yields in a market like that while LAX is stuck with four airlines flying to Shanghai.

I can get $500 fares on nonstops tomorrow from LAX to PVG. Why would DL ever add another PVG flight to a market like that? All of those flights are money losers.
Last edited by klakzky123 on Mon Nov 05, 2018 10:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
SESGDL
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:55 pm

klakzky123 wrote:
Rdh3e wrote:
OA412 wrote:
??? DL already flies to PVG from SEA, LAX, DTW, and ATL. If they wanted, say JFK-PVG, they would've just asked for that. They're applying for MSP-PVG because they want to fly it. The hubs that can support a PVG flight already have one.

DL would certainly like a second LAX I'm sure before MSP. They are just betting on the naivety of the DOT so they can lock down the slot. In DL parlance this is the "better to ask forgiveness" way of doing things.


LAX yields are awful as is. Why would DL want a second frequency? MSP is a potential monopoly market if the O&D is sufficient. I know its convenient to bag on MSP asian flights but DL can rack up some nice O&D yields in a market like that while LAX is stuck with four airlines flying to Shanghai.

I can get $500 yields on nonstops tomorrow from LAX to PVG. Why would DL ever add another PVG flight to a market like that? All of those flights are money losers.


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OA412
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Mon Nov 05, 2018 10:42 pm

Rdh3e wrote:
OA412 wrote:
??? DL already flies to PVG from SEA, LAX, DTW, and ATL. If they wanted, say JFK-PVG, they would've just asked for that. They're applying for MSP-PVG because they want to fly it. The hubs that can support a PVG flight already have one.

DL would certainly like a second LAX I'm sure before MSP. They are just betting on the naivety of the DOT so they can lock down the slot. In DL parlance this is the "better to ask forgiveness" way of doing things.

If they wanted a second LAX-PVG flight, they would have asked for it the way UA asked for a second SFO-PVG and is now asking for a 2nd EWR-PVG. They could also have just turned the NRT-PVG authority into a LAX-PVG authority, rather than moving it to ATL. Further, if they were going to ask for another LAX-China frequency, they'd surely ask for PEK first. NO ONE is making money on the LAX-PVG sector. It's an absolute bloodbath. I can purchase a roundtrip ticket departing tomorrow for $506 all in on either UA, AA, or DL. That's the same price as the last-minute LAX-JFK fares.
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TWA772LR
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Mon Nov 05, 2018 10:43 pm

Doubling capacity, in lieu of a less than daily second frequency, seems like overkill. Especially for UA. I think it would be wiser to upgauge EWR-PVG to a 77W and start IAH-PVG with a 787, better connecting the SE USA and Latin America to China, and giving AA a huge run for their money who has a monopoly on Texas-Shanghai. This what I would do.

Of course if UA is really making EWR more O&D oriented and want IAD to be their east coast connecting hub, they should start IAD-PVG with a 787. IAD could also connect the SE USA to China, but how much traffic is there between DC and Shanghai?
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blockski
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:09 am

TWA772LR wrote:
Of course if UA is really making EWR more O&D oriented and want IAD to be their east coast connecting hub, they should start IAD-PVG with a 787. IAD could also connect the SE USA to China, but how much traffic is there between DC and Shanghai?


I don’t have any numbers, but some anecdotes: PVG is one of IAD’s top targets for service. In this article, Dulles officials claim that DC to Shanghai is the largest US market to PVG that’s currently unserved. https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... rv-448701/

That article mentions Tel Aviv, and UA recently announced they will start IAD-TLV next year.

This is a few years old, but it’s a presentation from other air service development folks at IAD, and shanghai was listed as their then-10th largest unserved international market. http://thresholdtechnologies.org/cfd/wp ... 5.2015.pdf

Since that presentation, quite a few of those markets have now been served at IAD.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:14 am

TWA772LR wrote:
Doubling capacity, in lieu of a less than daily second frequency, seems like overkill. Especially for UA. I think it would be wiser to upgauge EWR-PVG to a 77W and start IAH-PVG with a 787, better connecting the SE USA and Latin America to China, and giving AA a huge run for their money who has a monopoly on Texas-Shanghai. This what I would do.

Of course if UA is really making EWR more O&D oriented and want IAD to be their east coast connecting hub, they should start IAD-PVG with a 787. IAD could also connect the SE USA to China, but how much traffic is there between DC and Shanghai?


The idea is that EWR serves NYC, the major economic capital of the USA, and PVG serves Shanghai, the economic capital of China. That's why this could work on O&D (China Eastern a few years ago went double-daily on JFK-PVG - arrivals just after noon and just before midnight - and Delta also codeshares on JFK-PVG). Down the line, this could go to a B789 for a better J experience or up to a B77W. From SFO, the only reason why UA served HGH for a time was the inability to get a slot into PVG. SFO is for the connecting passengers and EWR is for NYC O&D.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Wed Feb 06, 2019 8:52 pm

DOT did not approve the proposed additional EWR service as proposed by UA and instead opted to grant AA its request for dormancy waiver for ORD-PEK & PVG services.

DOT did leave the door open that it would reconsider alternative route proposals should AA not resume the service and if such alternative service was in the public benefit.

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jetero
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Re: UA applies for second daily EWR-PVG

Wed Feb 06, 2019 9:04 pm

UA never stood a chance on this application IMO. Very weak.

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