3 Quaters total deliveries were 568.

http://boeing.mediaroom.com/2018-10-09- ... Deliveries

X 4/3 leads to 757 deliveries for the full 2018 year. Did we see higher deliveries in the 4th quater in the past? If so 800 would seem possible this year.

In 2017 763 aircraft were delivered.
http://boeing.mediaroom.com/2018-01-09-Boeing-Sets-Airplane-Delivery-Record-Finishes-2017-with-Larger-Order-Book

Who cares? Most even don't know 800 would be up, more than ever before. Despite delays in the supply chain.

Wait, where have I heard that before?

keesje wrote:

3 Quaters total deliveries were 568.

http://boeing.mediaroom.com/2018-10-09- ... Deliveries

X 4/3 leads to 757 deliveries for the full 2018 year. Did we see higher deliveries in the 4th quater in the past? If so 800 would seem possible this year.

In 2017 763 aircraft were delivered.
http://boeing.mediaroom.com/2018-01-09-Boeing-Sets-Airplane-Delivery-Record-Finishes-2017-with-Larger-Order-Book

img]http://www.b737.org.uk/images/production_moving_line.jpg[/img]

Boeing just reaffirmed their 2018 delivery target of 810-815 aircraft when they released 3rd quarter earnings.

"And it's important to note that Boeing still expects to deliver 810 to 815 commercial jets in 2018. In other words, by year-end, it will fully catch up on deliveries that were postponed by engine delays. In fact, the outlook implies that Boeing will deliver between 242 and 247 jets this quarter, up from 209 in the prior-year period."

On the earnings call they stated that 737 delivery rates in Q4 will be above production rates as the line recovers from delays, so yes, Q4 will see an increase in delivered aircraft.

The strong September deliveries give us building confidence on the recovery and as you've noticed, we have not changed our year-end guidance for deliveries, so we remain confident that we'll hit our total delivery target for the year. As a result, in the fourth quarter, as a composite, you should expect to see deliveries exceeding the 52 a month production rate. Again, those deliveries will be more back-loaded in the quarter as always but we're seeing good signs on our recovery across the board. And we're going to continue to stay very, very focused on executing that.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/421399 ... ipt?page=3

Based on published 3Q results from Airbus and Boeing, I think Boeing has a better chance to clear 800 deliveries than Airbus. In respect to orders, Airbus is trailing Boeing by a large margin but who knows what will happen at end of the year. Airbus might surprise us, again.

T773ER wrote:

keesje wrote:

3 Quaters total deliveries were 568.

http://boeing.mediaroom.com/2018-10-09- ... Deliveries

X 4/3 leads to 757 deliveries for the full 2018 year. Did we see higher deliveries in the 4th quater in the past? If so 800 would seem possible this year.

In 2017 763 aircraft were delivered.
http://boeing.mediaroom.com/2018-01-09-Boeing-Sets-Airplane-Delivery-Record-Finishes-2017-with-Larger-Order-Book

img]http://www.b737.org.uk/images/production_moving_line.jpg[/img]

Boeing just reaffirmed their 2018 delivery target of 810-815 aircraft when they released 3rd quarter earnings.

"And it's important to note that Boeing still expects to deliver 810 to 815 commercial jets in 2018. In other words, by year-end, it will fully catch up on deliveries that were postponed by engine delays. In fact, the outlook implies that Boeing will deliver between 242 and 247 jets this quarter, up from 209 in the prior-year period."

On the earnings call they stated that 737 delivery rates in Q4 will be above production rates as the line recovers from delays, so yes, Q4 will see an increase in delivered aircraft.

The strong September deliveries give us building confidence on the recovery and as you've noticed, we have not changed our year-end guidance for deliveries, so we remain confident that we'll hit our total delivery target for the year. As a result, in the fourth quarter, as a composite, you should expect to see deliveries exceeding the 52 a month production rate. Again, those deliveries will be more back-loaded in the quarter as always but we're seeing good signs on our recovery across the board. And we're going to continue to stay very, very focused on executing that.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/421399 ... ipt?page=3

Great post, there is so much information from earnings calls that could be useful to many of the discussions on this board.

Planeflyer wrote:

T773ER wrote:

keesje wrote:

3 Quaters total deliveries were 568.

http://boeing.mediaroom.com/2018-10-09- ... Deliveries

X 4/3 leads to 757 deliveries for the full 2018 year. Did we see higher deliveries in the 4th quater in the past? If so 800 would seem possible this year.

In 2017 763 aircraft were delivered.
http://boeing.mediaroom.com/2018-01-09-Boeing-Sets-Airplane-Delivery-Record-Finishes-2017-with-Larger-Order-Book

img]http://www.b737.org.uk/images/production_moving_line.jpg[/img]

Boeing just reaffirmed their 2018 delivery target of 810-815 aircraft when they released 3rd quarter earnings.

"And it's important to note that Boeing still expects to deliver 810 to 815 commercial jets in 2018. In other words, by year-end, it will fully catch up on deliveries that were postponed by engine delays. In fact, the outlook implies that Boeing will deliver between 242 and 247 jets this quarter, up from 209 in the prior-year period."

On the earnings call they stated that 737 delivery rates in Q4 will be above production rates as the line recovers from delays, so yes, Q4 will see an increase in delivered aircraft.

The strong September deliveries give us building confidence on the recovery and as you've noticed, we have not changed our year-end guidance for deliveries, so we remain confident that we'll hit our total delivery target for the year. As a result, in the fourth quarter, as a composite, you should expect to see deliveries exceeding the 52 a month production rate. Again, those deliveries will be more back-loaded in the quarter as always but we're seeing good signs on our recovery across the board. And we're going to continue to stay very, very focused on executing that.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/421399 ... ipt?page=3

Great post, there is so much information from earnings calls that could be useful to many of the discussions on this board.

Thanks, and yes, especially in the Q&A session where investors ask the questions many of us want to hear the answers to.

It seems Boeing will break their own delivery record then. With this years successful orders and 800+ deliveries, it will probably significantly reduce the backlog gap with Airbus too!

The KC-46 767s will play a big role in Boeing hitting the target or not. If they will finally be able deliver the 1st before the end of the year they should be able deliver enough to make a real difference in the final numbers.

Planeflyer wrote:

T773ER wrote:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/421399 ... ipt?page=3

Great post, there is so much information from earnings calls that could be useful to many of the discussions on this board.

The most interesting part during that earning call is the fact Boeing made four billion dollars of free cash flow during the quarter. The question we should ask here is not about the aircraft delivery count, but how much free cash flow they will have made for the full year 2018. Is it 14 billion dollars or 15 billion dollars? I think it will exceeds fifteen billion US dollars.

VV wrote:

Planeflyer wrote:

T773ER wrote:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/421399 ... ipt?page=3

Great post, there is so much information from earnings calls that could be useful to many of the discussions on this board.

The most interesting part during that earning call is the fact Boeing made four billion dollars of free cash flow during the quarter. The question we should ask here is not about the aircraft delivery count, but how much free cash flow they will have made for the full year 2018. Is it 14 billion dollars or 15 billion dollars? I think it will exceeds fifteen billion US dollars.

Great observation! I'll also bump yesteryears expenses & write-off's into the future & go shopping with this years resulting Free Cash Flow. Is the 777x program also accounted like this?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/boeings-unique-accounting-method-helps-improve-profit-picture-1475522362

A. boys don't like talking about cash flow, because that is where Boeing really shines over Airbus. You are correct that cash flow is king, especially is Aerospace where R & D ability is important. Boeing delivers more aircraft annually, and the average Boeing delivery has more value because Boeing sells a higher percentage of wide bodies than Airbus. Boeing also creates $60,000 more per year per employee that Airbus. That is efficiency !!

SC430 wrote:

A. boys don't like talking about cash flow, because that is where Boeing really shines over Airbus. You are correct that cash flow is king, especially is Aerospace where R & D ability is important. Boeing delivers more aircraft annually, and the average Boeing delivery has more value because Boeing sells a higher percentage of wide bodies than Airbus. Boeing also creates $60,000 more per year per employee that Airbus. That is efficiency !!

It's all about execution, and it seems that BCA have that down finally on the 787 program. However, I am a little concerned as to the future rate increase on the 737 program, given the engine production issues.

SC430 wrote:

A. boys don't like talking about cash flow, because that is where Boeing really shines over Airbus. You are correct that cash flow is king, especially is Aerospace where R & D ability is important. Boeing delivers more aircraft annually, and the average Boeing delivery has more value because Boeing sells a higher percentage of wide bodies than Airbus. Boeing also creates $60,000 more per year per employee that Airbus. That is efficiency !!

In the past you needed to back up claims like that. But we got used to simply accepting the bbn bbn claims supporting our opinions..

Getting back on topic, it seems CFM delivering LEAP-B's is on the critical path.

Bricktop wrote:

SC430 wrote:

A. boys don't like talking about cash flow, because that is where Boeing really shines over Airbus. You are correct that cash flow is king, especially is Aerospace where R & D ability is important. Boeing delivers more aircraft annually, and the average Boeing delivery has more value because Boeing sells a higher percentage of wide bodies than Airbus. Boeing also creates $60,000 more per year per employee that Airbus. That is efficiency !!

It's all about execution, and it seems that BCA have that down finally on the 787 program. However, I am a little concerned as to the future rate increase on the 737 program, given the engine production issues.

You might wanna look at the engine production issues for the geared fan powering the A320neo family.

It's far worse. A quick Google search shows you almost weekly issues with go air and indigo. At least the LEAP-B is working properly in service.

Airbus' fanciful 70-per-month plans on n/bodies is far more open to risk than Boeing is with the 737 right now. Airbus is probably only too pleased that they have LEap as an option for the neo.

Planeflyer wrote:

T773ER wrote:

keesje wrote:

3 Quaters total deliveries were 568.

http://boeing.mediaroom.com/2018-10-09- ... Deliveries

X 4/3 leads to 757 deliveries for the full 2018 year. Did we see higher deliveries in the 4th quater in the past? If so 800 would seem possible this year.

In 2017 763 aircraft were delivered.
http://boeing.mediaroom.com/2018-01-09-Boeing-Sets-Airplane-Delivery-Record-Finishes-2017-with-Larger-Order-Book

img]http://www.b737.org.uk/images/production_moving_line.jpg[/img]

Boeing just reaffirmed their 2018 delivery target of 810-815 aircraft when they released 3rd quarter earnings.

"And it's important to note that Boeing still expects to deliver 810 to 815 commercial jets in 2018. In other words, by year-end, it will fully catch up on deliveries that were postponed by engine delays. In fact, the outlook implies that Boeing will deliver between 242 and 247 jets this quarter, up from 209 in the prior-year period."

On the earnings call they stated that 737 delivery rates in Q4 will be above production rates as the line recovers from delays, so yes, Q4 will see an increase in delivered aircraft.

The strong September deliveries give us building confidence on the recovery and as you've noticed, we have not changed our year-end guidance for deliveries, so we remain confident that we'll hit our total delivery target for the year. As a result, in the fourth quarter, as a composite, you should expect to see deliveries exceeding the 52 a month production rate. Again, those deliveries will be more back-loaded in the quarter as always but we're seeing good signs on our recovery across the board. And we're going to continue to stay very, very focused on executing that.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/421399 ... ipt?page=3

Great post, there is so much information from earnings calls that could be useful to many of the discussions on this board.

The earnings calls are very informative. The catch is LEAP and RR engine deliveries (Pratt doesn't apply, except for the 767). It is expected that RR will be 15 engines short (6+/- 1 fewer 787 deliveries). The question will be how much CFM catches up with the LEAP. I think it can be done.

Quite impressive. Over 1,600 planned deliveries for 2018 between A and B.

And yes, the free cash flow is quite impressive for Boeing.

Lightsaber

SC430 wrote:

A. boys don't like talking about cash flow, because that is where Boeing really shines over Airbus. You are correct that cash flow is king, especially is Aerospace where R & D ability is important. Boeing delivers more aircraft annually, and the average Boeing delivery has more value because Boeing sells a higher percentage of wide bodies than Airbus. Boeing also creates $60,000 more per year per employee that Airbus. That is efficiency !!

Either efficiency, or an indicator of how much of the production value is outsourced - John Hart-Smith.

Since it seems we have some posters that actually read the full text of the earnings calls does anyone understand why AB cash flow is so poor?

I understand the impact of engines on this year’s performance but it really has been lagging the last 5 years.

The only thing that makes sense is that those large 320 orders were discounted more heavily than we thought or costs are not under control.

Or is the a400 and 380 a bigger drag than is reported.

AB would benefit from quarterly earnings releases and the grillings that go w them.

I don’t want to start a moronic a v b thread but if anyone has any ideas I’d like to gain a better understanding.

kengo wrote:

Based on published 3Q results from Airbus and Boeing, I think Boeing has a better chance to clear 800 deliveries than Airbus. In respect to orders, Airbus is trailing Boeing by a large margin but who knows what will happen at end of the year. Airbus might surprise us, again.

with leahy gone, i highly doubt it. its gonna take AB a while to replace that sales machine.

keesje wrote:

The free cash flow is impressive if you force yourself to ignore the unique controversial accounting method Boeing uses. Making things look better short term to boost stock values / bonusses. Airbus (and everyone else) doesn’t use it (not allowed) eating cost when they are there.

Trying to provoke people, keesje?

keesje wrote:

The free cash flow is impressive if you force yourself to ignore the unique controversial accounting method Boeing uses. Making things look better short term to boost stock values / bonusses. Airbus (and everyone else) doesn’t use it (not allowed) eating cost when they are there.

Tsk tsk. Why you gotta be like that, bro?

VV & Bricktop trying to make it personal. It isn't. It is about seeing what you want to see.

Being presented apples & oranges and you like the outcome so much,

you take little holiday from financial integrity. Or the strength to resist.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2016-04-14/boeing-s-32-billion-accounting-question
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/boeings-long-history-of-whistleblowers-and-accounting-investigations-2016-02-11

keesje wrote:

VV & Bricktop trying to make it personal. It isn't. It is about seeing what you want to see.

Being presented apples & oranges and you like the outcome so much,

you take little holiday from financial integrity. Or the strength to resist.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2016-04-14/boeing-s-32-billion-accounting-question
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/boeings-long-history-of-whistleblowers-and-accounting-investigations-2016-02-11

To all those who are trying to grope towards a serviceable understanding of Program Accounting, my advice is : "give up".

There are at least two fundamentally different and incompatible versions peddled here on a.net; and they differ right from the get-go on the definition of "Accounting Block". And it just gets worse from there, with the warring camps shouting past each other.

FWIW I went back to basics and looked at the ACTUAL interest paid-out by BA over the last 5 years, as recorded in the annual results.

Happily, multiplying that by a typical interest-rate that a major, profitable corporation like BA might be paying gave an interest-bearing debt in the range of $10-$!2Bn of USD.

So that is the one that matters, IMO.

And following-on from that, I conclude that EG the surplus cash being generated by each 787 can properly be seen as:
1) valid "Free Cash", and also
2) reducing the overall deficit where the specific Accounting of the 787program is concerned.

And sure, the 787 program still has a long way to go.

But at the Corporate Level, the debt that matters is the repayable debt which will meantime have to be serviced by Interest payments.

And that debt, the "real" debt is $10-$12 Bn.

Try it yourself!

cheers

brindabella

The total debts and liabilities as well as the case and marketable securities are stated their quarterly earning reports.

In Q3 2018 the total debt was $ 11.9 billion.

Cash position and marketable securities were at $ 10 billion.

Free cash flow during the first nine months 2018 is $ 11.1 billion.

It is interesting how much cash they currently generate.

http://investors.boeing.com/investors/i ... fault.aspx

keesje wrote:

VV & Bricktop trying to make it personal. It isn't. It is about seeing what you want to see.

Being presented apples & oranges and you like the outcome so much,

you take little holiday from financial integrity. Or the strength to resist.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2016-04-14/boeing-s-32-billion-accounting-question
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/boeings-long-history-of-whistleblowers-and-accounting-investigations-2016-02-11

Can't speak to VV, but I am not making it personal. I question why you are bringing back that dead horse for yet another flogging? One that has been covered in other threads ad nauseam. That you have already contributed in. One that has absolutely nothing with 800 deliveries. If you think I am calling you out for trolling and are taking that personally, that's your prerogative.

Two observations. First, it looks like Boeing might deliver more planes than it nets in new orders. With the level of backlog that exists that is probably good in the short term. If that trend accelerates, though, it may mean that production rate increases might be over enthusiastic. Ultimately you want to deliver the same number as you get new orders for. But reducing the backlog will make customers happy because it will mean less waiting time for new planes.

Second, I don’t care what accounting method you use. Ultimately a company’s financial health depends on how much external debt (including accounts payable) they have and how much cash they have on hand (plus accounts receivable). These are hard numbers and very difficult to fudge. And these numbers say Boeing is in very good shape.

keesje wrote:

The free cash flow is impressive if you force yourself to ignore the unique controversial accounting method Boeing uses. Making things look better short term to boost stock values / bonusses. Airbus (and everyone else) doesn’t use it (not allowed) eating cost when they are there.

How did we get to this comment from discussing deliveries?

I thought a review of deliveries wouldn’t turn into an accounting debate. Meeting 767 tanker and 737 delivery numbers is a challenge. There are some real supply chain challenges associated with increasing production rate while switching to an upgraded model.

keesje wrote:

VV & Bricktop trying to make it personal. It isn't. It is about seeing what you want to see.

Being presented apples & oranges and you like the outcome so much,

you take little holiday from financial integrity. Or the strength to resist.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2016-04-14/boeing-s-32-billion-accounting-question
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/boeings-long-history-of-whistleblowers-and-accounting-investigations-2016-02-11

Did you start this thread so you can bash Boeing and question their integrity? #shameful

I don't suppose anybody can provide any info on my question re AB?

VV wrote:

Planeflyer wrote:

T773ER wrote:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/421399 ... ipt?page=3

Great post, there is so much information from earnings calls that could be useful to many of the discussions on this board.

The most interesting part during that earning call is the fact Boeing made four billion dollars of free cash flow during the quarter. The question we should ask here is not about the aircraft delivery count, but how much free cash flow they will have made for the full year 2018. Is it 14 billion dollars or 15 billion dollars? I think it will exceeds fifteen billion US dollars.

VV kicked off the free cash flow in topic #9. Then he & Newbie blames me for responding / going off topic.
Great job On VeroVenia this would quickly be deleted / re-written to ensure constancy.
Here it's logged & visible for all.

Back on topic (again), It's great to see how the 787 recovered from a deliveries & reliability standpoint in relative short ramp up period. Great job.



In terms of deliveries the 737 takes the bulk. I wonder when they will follow Airbus to rate 60. The supply chain seems the limiting factor.

brindabella wrote:

keesje wrote:

VV & Bricktop trying to make it personal. It isn't. It is about seeing what you want to see.

Being presented apples & oranges and you like the outcome so much,

you take little holiday from financial integrity. Or the strength to resist.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2016-04-14/boeing-s-32-billion-accounting-question
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/boeings-long-history-of-whistleblowers-and-accounting-investigations-2016-02-11

To all those who are trying to grope towards a serviceable understanding of Program Accounting, my advice is : "give up".

There are at least two fundamentally different and incompatible versions peddled here on a.net; and they differ right from the get-go on the definition of "Accounting Block". And it just gets worse from there, with the warring camps shouting past each other.

FWIW I went back to basics and looked at the ACTUAL interest paid-out by BA over the last 5 years, as recorded in the annual results.

Happily, multiplying that by a typical interest-rate that a major, profitable corporation like BA might be paying gave an interest-bearing debt in the range of $10-$!2Bn of USD.

So that is the one that matters, IMO.

And following-on from that, I conclude that EG the surplus cash being generated by each 787 can properly be seen as:
1) valid "Free Cash", and also
2) reducing the overall deficit where the specific Accounting of the 787program is concerned.

And sure, the 787 program still has a long way to go.

But at the Corporate Level, the debt that matters is the repayable debt which will meantime have to be serviced by Interest payments.

And that debt, the "real" debt is $10-$12 Bn.

Try it yourself!

cheers

Very nice. You would look at your finances and declare that only the bank loan is dept. The bills you have to pay is of course no debt, but a liability one can disregard.

The total liabilities of Boeing in the 2018 09 Sep 30 10-Q are 114,659 million USD and that includes a negative equity of 1,209 million USD.

The corporate debt is about 12,000 million USD, yes
but does one really disregards for example: Advances and progress billings at 51,496 million USD aka paid for but not delivered airplanes or: Accounts payable 13,663 million USD aka products or service that Boeing has received but not yet paid. That way one has to go through the whole liabilities.

Total current liabilities 79,417 million USD is the amount that Boeing has to cover in the short term. Those current liabilities are covered by: Total current assets 87,686 million USD and those assets includes the Inventories 62,038 million USD and the Cash and cash equivalents $8,034 million USD
Perhaps to think about those inventories include the deferred cost:

People have to understand that the liabilities is the collection of all the different position, that either have to be paid, or value being delivered for. It includes the corporate debt.

It's time for the mods to close this trollathon. All the usual talking points have been trotted out for the umpteenth time.

In about ten days we will have the delivery tally until end of October for Boeing aircraft.

Obviously the thread was posted with the clear intention to trigger unnecessary discussion.

Please close this useless thread.

Bricktop wrote:

:roll: It's time for the mods to close this trollathon. All the usual talking points have been trotted out for the umpteenth time.

There is nothing wrong with the opening post. One could applaud a (supposedly) known B critic of stepping above himself, and giving credit to who deserves credit.

VV wrote:

brindabella
Free cash flow during the first nine months 2018 is $ 11.1 billion.
It is interesting how much cash they currently generate.

With deliveries running at record levels (especially widebodies), cash generation would also be running at record levels. That said, let them pull the trigger and put that cash to good use and get the show going with new models (797 series) . . .

keesje wrote:

The free cash flow is impressive if you force yourself to ignore the unique controversial accounting method Boeing uses. Making things look better short term to boost stock values / bonusses. Airbus (and everyone else) doesn’t use it (not allowed) eating cost when they are there.

It doesn't boost short term stock values. Markets are driven by sophisticated investors that understand what the financials mean and how they are used.

PW100 wrote:

Bricktop wrote:

:roll: It's time for the mods to close this trollathon. All the usual talking points have been trotted out for the umpteenth time.

There is nothing wrong with the opening post. One could applaud a (supposedly) known B critic of stepping above himself, and giving credit to who deserves credit.

And if he had continued with that focus, that would have been indeed commendable. But the temptation to trot out deferred costs/program accounting was too strong to stop him derailing his own thread. Is there anything on that subject which hasn't been said double or triple digit times? Is it in any way relevant to Boeing delivering 780, 800 or 820 planes in 2018? Hence my comment. Others may differ but that's my POV.

So, here is the title of the thread "Boeing 2018 deliveries forecast, 800?"

Obviously the title is just to attract as many views as possible and to trigger sterile comments and I do my best to make it happen.

Look, in January 2018 Boeing stated that their target is to deliver between 810 to 816 aircraft in 2018.

This target has been confirmed again during Boeing's Q3 2018 earning call. Every single serious aircraft manufacturing industry observer knows it. It is not very difficult to listen to the webcast or the recording of the call.

So, some random dude out there asks, "Boeing 2018 deliveries forecast, 800?"
What the heck?

During the same Q3 2018 earning call in which Boeing confirmes its aircraft delivery target, it also stated that the free cash flow for the Q3 2018 is about US$ 4 billion and the the free cash flow for the first 9 months of 2018 is about $ 11 billion.

Are they going to achieve 810-816 aircraft deliveries in 2018? Well we do not know yet, but we know what the target is.
Perhaps there will be a sudden massive ebola outbreak among Boeing workers in Seattle this month that stops the production. Who knows?

Fact is, they said they are trying to deliver 810-816 aircraft this year and in about one week they will publish their order and delivery numbers until end of October 2018.

Seriously, what the heck is this useless thread?

VV wrote:

Seriously, what the heck is this useless thread?

It exists to shift focus away from the fact that Airbus is not going to hit its delivery targets, of course. Unfortunately for the poster, Boeing will probably exceed its forecast for delivery, and blow Airbus away on financial metrics as well. This thread is basically trolling gone wrong, thus the shift to the same old program accounting attacks.

Revelation wrote:

VV wrote:

Seriously, what the heck is this useless thread?

It exists to shift focus away from the fact that Airbus is not going to hit its delivery targets, of course. Unfortunately for the poster, Boeing will probably exceed its forecast for delivery, and blow Airbus away on financial metrics as well. This thread is basically trolling gone wrong, thus the shift to the same old program accounting attacks.

We do not know yet if Airbus will not achieve its target. The latest statement made during Q3 2018 earning call is that they are still targeting 800 deliveries for the full year of 2018. So we need to stick with whatever they say. After all, they know exactly what the state of the production is.

Neither do we know if Boeing will hit their target, but they reaffirmed the objective to deliver 810-816 aircraft this year during Q3 2018 earning call.

As previously said, a massive ebola outbreak among aerospace workers around the world this month could stop the production. LOL.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/11/ ... irbus.aspx

The article above strongly suggests low pricing during the Leahy years as part of the reason for the huge profit/cash flow differences between A & B

SC430 wrote:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/11/05/1-way-boeing-is-absolutely-crushing-airbus.aspx

The article above strongly suggests low pricing during the Leahy years as part of the reason for the huge profit/cash flow differences between A & B

Thanks for the link. I was hoping for more definitive info on pricing than the article contains.

I think AB could be a very good investment if the the backlog on the 32xx series is profitable.

The for now EU created Airbus to make planes, hire workers, and establish a world class aviation industry. It succeeded. In the US while corporations were originally given all their special privileges in return for profiting investors AND benefiting society. Corporations have been able to largely shed the second part of that equation. So Boeing is immensely profitable.

SC430 wrote:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/11/05/1-way-boeing-is-absolutely-crushing-airbus.aspx

The article above strongly suggests low pricing during the Leahy years as part of the reason for the huge profit/cash flow differences between A & B

Dancing around the main reason for the difference in profitability at this time. Airbus is ramping up the A350 program, has to book the cost and that hits profits.
Airbus is also ramping the A320 program and is also eating those cost now.

In a similar situation Boeing defers the ramp up cost instead of booking them and shows fantastic profits. I would assume that the 737MAX program does show some deferrals now too and deferrals on the 777x program will start in 2020.

mjoelnir wrote:

SC430 wrote:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/11/05/1-way-boeing-is-absolutely-crushing-airbus.aspx

The article above strongly suggests low pricing during the Leahy years as part of the reason for the huge profit/cash flow differences between A & B

Dancing around the main reason for the difference in profitability at this time. Airbus is ramping up the A350 program, has to book the cost and that hits profits.
Airbus is also ramping the A320 program and is also eating those cost now.

In a similar situation Boeing defers the ramp up cost instead of booking them and shows fantastic profits. I would assume that the 737MAX program does show some deferrals now too and deferrals on the 777x program will start in 2020.

Just for clarity, "deferred cost" does not mean "deferred payment".
You still need to pay suppliers for the goods and services they provide in due time. It is paid roughly within two months.
Cash still flows out.

However, you record the expenditure as cost which will be charged to a later period. There is a huge difference between cash flow and accounting, although the two are somehow related.

Cash is day-to-day, whereas in accounting you have "time" aspect involved. This aspect (time) is the part many people do not understand.

Anyway, the basic idea is that you still have to pay your suppliers and your employees on (roughly) monthly basis. This is the most important point if you really want to understand what "deferred cost" is. Once you understand that you need to expend cash on daily basis to produce your product then you can go on to understand "deferred production cost".

If you fail to understand that extremely simple principle then you can go back to sleep.

Bricktop wrote:

And if he had continued with that focus, that would have been indeed commendable. But the temptation to trot out deferred costs/program accounting was too strong to stop him derailing his own thread.

It wasn't him trotting out deferred costs/program accounting.
It takes two sides to dance.

Not denying Keesje could/should have shown more restrain. Nevertheless, thread derail blaming seems somewhat one sided to me here.

Just for debate sake, assume a NB runs $ 50M. If 40 less planes are delivered in a year that is $ 2 B pf free cash flow not taken in this if 100% of the payment is at delivery (it isn't I know). Painful but able to be made up if next years deliveries are up by 40. Forty less planes out of 800 is 5%, absent the adjustments for partial planes it implies that unit assembly costs would be 800/760 or 5.2% higher than budgeted, a hit to profitability of 1-2% if the workforce works the same total manhours in the year. Usually, manhours rise as rework and work after assembly is much less productive. Note how Boeing brought in lots of extra labor last summer dealing with 737 gliders, affecting costs. Boeing appears past this now, back on for 800+ planes for the year, but Airbus needs to deliver 37% or almost 300 planes in the 4th quarter to deliver 800 this year.

musman9853 wrote:

frmrCapCadet wrote:

The for now EU created Airbus to make planes, hire workers, and establish a world class aviation industry. It succeeded. In the US while corporations were originally given all their special privileges in return for profiting investors AND benefiting society. Corporations have been able to largely shed the second part of that equation. So Boeing is immensely profitable.

cheap air travel benefits society.

So Airbus is a charity?

It is possible there are a lot of thing to do around the delivery of an aircraft like closing the financing, register individual aircraft with the authorities, flying the acceptance flight(s) with customer, signing all kind of paperwork and so on and so on.

I guess the whole system is strained if there is a surge of deliveries during the last two months of the year. There are other parties involved beyond the aircraft manufacturers like lenders, customers, regulatory authorities (FAA, EASA etc). These people also need to manage their work.

So yes, a short term production surge is always a challenge for all parties involved. The simple fact a bank does not transfer the money on time can block the delivery process.

If I were an airline, this is the right time to become very demanding on individual aircraft.

PW100 wrote:

Bricktop wrote:

And if he had continued with that focus, that would have been indeed commendable. But the temptation to trot out deferred costs/program accounting was too strong to stop him derailing his own thread.

It wasn't him trotting out deferred costs/program accounting.

Yes it was. Post #10. Unless a post has been deleted or edited before I started reading the thread, none of the prior posts make reference to it.

hOMSaR wrote:

PW100 wrote:

It wasn't him trotting out deferred costs/program accounting.

Yes it was. Post #10. Unless a post has been deleted or edited before I started reading the thread, none of the prior posts make reference to it.

Who is "it"?

Anyway, in the Q3 2018 earning call one Boeing executive said they maintain the target for 810-816 aircraft deliveries in 2018. They couldn't be clearer.
Days later a random dude ask the question on how many aircraft Boeing would deliver in 2018.
In addition, in about one week Boeing will publish it's order and delivery numbers till end of October.
What the heck?

mjoelnir wrote:

SC430 wrote:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/11/05/1-way-boeing-is-absolutely-crushing-airbus.aspx

The article above strongly suggests low pricing during the Leahy years as part of the reason for the huge profit/cash flow differences between A & B

Dancing around the main reason for the difference in profitability at this time. Airbus is ramping up the A350 program, has to book the cost and that hits profits.
Airbus is also ramping the A320 program and is also eating those cost now.

In a similar situation Boeing defers the ramp up cost instead of booking them and shows fantastic profits. I would assume that the 737MAX program does show some deferrals now too and deferrals on the 777x program will start in 2020.

Oh dear.



Two logical interpretations of your "colourful" narrative:

1) By fantastic you mean that BA's Accounts are literally falsified. I'm sure you don't think that.
That's loopy la-la-land stuff.

2) BA "pulls-forward" future (real) profits to make a huge splash and current BA managers and staff happily accept all the cheering, congratulations and (personal) profit that goes with that.
But you neglect to consider what will happen when the year finally arrives which "actually owns" those profits previously "pulled-forward".

Calamity!

The cupboard is now bare. Those profits were declared already way-back-when. Can't count the very same profit twice!
So now all that is now left is "fantastic losses".

By your own logic!

Obviously that hasn't happened, is not happening and (IMO) won't happen.

Checkmate.

cheers