dmorbust
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Re: DL goes double daily mainline on DTW-JAX

Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:52 pm

winginit wrote:
tphuang wrote:
winginit wrote:
Dominant Carrier Market Share by Largest Hub, Seats, 2018

ATL (DL): 78%
DTW (DL): 73%
MSP (DL): 71%
DFW (AA): 84%
CLT (AA): 90%
MIA (AA): 68%
IAH (UA): 77%
EWR (UA): 65%
IAD (UA): 63%

So yes, DL has market share power and influence in their core hubs... just like AA and UA.

This conveniently ignores the fact that DFW/MIA/IAH/EWR/IAD all face competition in catchment area from other airports. MIA is not even profitable for AA (based on their recent earnings calls) due to FLL pricing pressure. IAD is even more of a joke, since DCA is the preferred airport.


... and that's Delta's fault? I'm not saying that DL isn't ATL heavy - it's financially prudent for them to be; but to say that hub market power is the only reason DL is more profitable than AA or UA is ridiculous. They've balanced that concentration in ATL by building up highly competitive hubs like JFK/LGA, LAX, and SEA yet they still turn better profits than their legacy competitors.


Exactly. I posted about this before, but Delta has quite smartly built up complete dominance in 4 hubs with no alternative airport options: ATL, MSP, DTW, & SLC. No other airline can match that, and as a result DL returns higher profits than the other airlines and can still fund expansions in highly competitive LAX, NYC, and lately SEA & BOS.
 
MSPNWA
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Re: DL goes double daily mainline on DTW-JAX

Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:57 pm

winginit wrote:
... and that's Delta's fault? I'm not saying that DL isn't ATL heavy - it's financially prudent for them to be; but to say that hub market power is the only reason DL is more profitable than AA or UA is ridiculous. They've balanced that concentration in ATL by building up highly competitive hubs like JFK/LGA, LAX, and SEA yet they still turn better profits than their legacy competitors.


Who is saying it's their fault? Of course it's not their fault. However it does directly affect their true market share and heavily influences their pricing power. And when an airline has more pricing power, it increases their revenue potential, which leads to profit potential. So it's fair statement to say DL's profit is significantly due to their dominant market share. Again, there's nothing wrong with that. But let's be fair about why they're making money, and not put all the credit on "feel good" but unfounded reasons like product or operating performance.

Any attempt to claim that DL doesn't have a clear market share edge is futile.
 
tphuang
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Re: DL goes double daily mainline on DTW-JAX

Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:58 pm

winginit wrote:
tphuang wrote:
winginit wrote:
Dominant Carrier Market Share by Largest Hub, Seats, 2018

ATL (DL): 78%
DTW (DL): 73%
MSP (DL): 71%
DFW (AA): 84%
CLT (AA): 90%
MIA (AA): 68%
IAH (UA): 77%
EWR (UA): 65%
IAD (UA): 63%

So yes, DL has market share power and influence in their core hubs... just like AA and UA.

This conveniently ignores the fact that DFW/MIA/IAH/EWR/IAD all face competition in catchment area from other airports. MIA is not even profitable for AA (based on their recent earnings calls) due to FLL pricing pressure. IAD is even more of a joke, since DCA is the preferred airport.


... and that's Delta's fault? I'm not saying that DL isn't ATL heavy - it's financially prudent for them to be; but to say that hub market power is the only reason DL is more profitable than AA or UA is ridiculous. They've balanced that concentration in ATL by building up highly competitive hubs like JFK/LGA, LAX, and SEA yet they still turn better profits than their legacy competitors.


I mean you must have seen the fare numbers. They loose money on all these pseudo hubs they created. They can’t even make money in jfk despite having far and away the most number of slots at lga and jfk combined.

They do a great job of making money in their fortress hubs. Whether that’s due to their revenue management or due to the unique advantages of their hub, that’s hard to say. Probably a combination. It’s pretty obvious they have no competition to their 4 most profitable hubs. Whereas despite all of aa market share, only clt has no competition in catchment area. It’s also why they are so profitable there.

That’s all I got and I made the fatal mistake of getting involved in Klm post.
 
klm617
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Re: DL goes double daily mainline on DTW-JAX

Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:23 pm

evank516 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
winginit wrote:

So here's the thing... you're wrong, and I'll explain why using data.

For the sake of being thorough, for this analysis we'll use the Top 7 hubs per carrier measured by annual seats for 2018. Once you go deeper than seven you start to run into hubs that the airline themselves wouldn't identify as such (ie BOS for UA). That being the case, the hubs I'll incorporate here are below:

AA: DFW - CLT - ORD - MIA - PHL - PHX - LAX
DL: ATL - MSP - DTW - SLC - JFK - LAX - LGA
UA: ORD - IAH - EWR - DEN - SFO - IAD - LAX

From there I'll show both the seat share by carrier by identified hub and then at the end of the day spit out a weighted average to identify hub concentration by seat share again for the full year 2018 schedule.


AA:
DFW 84%
CLT 90%
ORD 35%
MIA 68%
PHL 71%
PHX 46%
LAX 19%
Weighted Average: 54%

DL:
ATL 78%
MSP 71%
DTW 73%
SLC 69%
JFK 27%
LAX 16%
LGA 41%
Weighted Average: 51%

UA:
ORD 45%
IAH 77%
EWR 65%
DEN 43%
SFO 44%
IAD 63%
LAX 14%
Weighted Average: 45%

So there you have it. Weighted for size, AA has a higher hub 'dominance' than DL. Your statement is incorrect. While DL does indeed have some share power in their three largest hubs, they offset that by hubbing competitive airports.

It's worth pointing out that as the cutoff here is seven hubs I didn't include SEA even though DL would obviously consider that a hub. Including SEA which would drive DL's weighted average down from 51% to 48% given they only have 23% seat share in SEA. Disagree with my analysis here? Then bring your own data to the table.



No convincing needed from me. The industry recognizes that Delta is both a powerhouse and forward thinking airline, and that includes AA and UA executives as well as the analysts who follow the industry day in and day out. Whether or not you refuse to acknowledge what the industry has accepted is irrelevant.



You're playing games with the numbers agasin LAX is not a hub for Delta.

Core hubs Delta ATL, DTW, MSP, JFK, LGA and SLC
Core hubs American CLT, PHL, MIA, ORD, DFW and PHX
Core hubs for UA DEN, SFO, ORD , IAH, IAD and EWR

And I believe your SLC numbers are wrong Delta's market share there is more than 69%


LAX is indeed a hub for Delta as identified on Delta.com.


That may well be true but when you are doing data like this you don't add LAX while excluding SEA and BOS unless you want to manipulate the data.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
klm617
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Re: DL goes double daily mainline on DTW-JAX

Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:27 pm

winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:

You're playing games with the numbers agasin LAX is not a hub for Delta.

Core hubs Delta ATL, DTW, MSP, JFK, LGA and SLC
Core hubs American CLT, PHL, MIA, ORD, DFW and PHX
Core hubs for UA DEN, SFO, ORD , IAH, IAD and EWR


First and foremost, your statement is nonsensical. Delta always refers to LAX as a hub.

You don't get to say what is and isn't a Delta hub - they do, and here's a quote from their CEO:

"Nearly 10 years ago, we made a commitment to be LA's premier, premium airline. Today, LAX is one of the most important hubs in our network where we operate more than 170 daily flights and connect more passengers to our partner airlines than anywhere else in the U.S.,"

Secondly, even if I exclude LAX from all three carriers AA is still ahead. The weighted averages shakes out per the below ex-LAX

AA: 63%
DL: 61%
UA: 53%

So your point is moot, and your statement was false. I look forward to your correction.

klm617 wrote:
And I believe your SLC numbers are wrong Delta's market share there is more than 69%


Oh yeah? You think my numbers are wrong do ya? Does your vast amount of data lead you to that conclusion? Let's see it then - here's mine:

SLC, Seat Share, full year 2018 per OAG:

DL: 69%
WN: 11%
AA: 6%
UA: 5%
AS: 3%
B6: 3%
F9: 2%

Just because you 'believe' something doesn't make it true, as I think we've learned in this thread and many others. Back your inclinations with data or keep them to yourself.


Now try your data with the number of enplanements that's how you calculate market share not by seats offered.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
evank516
Posts: 1977
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:15 am

Re: DL goes double daily mainline on DTW-JAX

Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:27 pm

klm617 wrote:
evank516 wrote:
klm617 wrote:


You're playing games with the numbers agasin LAX is not a hub for Delta.

Core hubs Delta ATL, DTW, MSP, JFK, LGA and SLC
Core hubs American CLT, PHL, MIA, ORD, DFW and PHX
Core hubs for UA DEN, SFO, ORD , IAH, IAD and EWR

And I believe your SLC numbers are wrong Delta's market share there is more than 69%


LAX is indeed a hub for Delta as identified on Delta.com.


That may well be true but when you are doing data like this you don't add LAX while excluding SEA and BOS unless you want to manipulate the data.


I'll give you SEA, but not BOS. BOS is not a hub as defined by Delta, it's a focus city. SEA is a hub as you mentioned.
 
winginit
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Re: DL goes double daily mainline on DTW-JAX

Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:39 pm

klm617 wrote:
That may well be true but when you are doing data like this you don't add LAX while excluding SEA and BOS unless you want to manipulate the data.


I was crystal clear as to my methodology for choosing the hubs that I did - Top 7 hubs per carrier measured by the number of seats deployed in the market. No manipulation. I even specifically pointed out why SEA was excluded and noted what it's inclusion would do to the numbers. Did you read that? Why don't you do us a favor and go back and read that. Thanks.

klm617 wrote:
Now try your data with the number of enplanements that's how you calculate market share not by seats offered.


Want to calculate metrics based on enplanements? Be my guest. Have fun. I'm not your data drone. I've shown you my cards now let's see yours.

In the meantime, I look forward to your retraction of the proven false claim that "No other carrier has the dominance at their hubs that Delta does". If you have data to back your claim, please provide it per forum rules. Additionally, I noticed that you went silent on your 'hunch' that my SLC figures were wrong. Do you have figures to counter them? No?
 
klm617
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Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: DL goes double daily mainline on DTW-JAX

Mon Nov 05, 2018 7:40 pm

winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:
That may well be true but when you are doing data like this you don't add LAX while excluding SEA and BOS unless you want to manipulate the data.


I was crystal clear as to my methodology for choosing the hubs that I did - Top 7 hubs per carrier measured by the number of seats deployed in the market. No manipulation. I even specifically pointed out why SEA was excluded and noted what it's inclusion would do to the numbers. Did you read that? Why don't you do us a favor and go back and read that. Thanks.

klm617 wrote:
Now try your data with the number of enplanements that's how you calculate market share not by seats offered.


Want to calculate metrics based on enplanements? Be my guest. Have fun. I'm not your data drone. I've shown you my cards now let's see yours.

In the meantime, I look forward to your retraction of the proven false claim that "No other carrier has the dominance at their hubs that Delta does". If you have data to back your claim, please provide it per forum rules. Additionally, I noticed that you went silent on your 'hunch' that my SLC figures were wrong. Do you have figures to counter them? No?



Don't worry I'll get back to you when I get all the data together.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
evank516
Posts: 1977
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:15 am

Re: DL goes double daily mainline on DTW-JAX

Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:19 pm

DTW has become such a taboo topic on a.net. It's becoming quite pathetic. I have my first planned connection there in January on my way to MKE. First time ever. And I'm about to be Gold Medallion who makes frequent trips to the Midwest from the Northeast.
 
tphuang
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Re: DL goes double daily mainline on DTW-JAX

Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:42 pm

I took a look at NK numbers out of DTW and then compared that to their numbers out of BOS. They do drastically better on pretty much every route. This includes MSY, where DL added capacity after NK entrance. It seems to me that DTW is fertile ground for future NK expansion compared to some of the more competitive markets in the country. So I don't see how this would cause NK to retreat.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: DL goes double daily mainline on DTW-JAX

Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:06 pm

klm617 wrote:
kavok wrote:
enilria wrote:
This is actually pretty out of character for Delta. Usually they ignore ULCCs and save these sorts of retaliations for carriers like AS, B6, UA, and AA. I wonder why this route in particular set them off?

The very new head of network planning at NK used to be at AirTran and AirTran had a very bitter relationships with Delta. Maybe this is a personalized message?



Maybe. Or maybe this is one rare instance where NK actually posed a threat to DLs customer base. In most instances, it is fly a NK jet vs. fly a DL jet, where both are tapping into different customer bases. In this case the option was going to be fly an NK jet, or fly a Delta RJ/make ATL connection.

Maybe when compared to flying that long in a RJ or having to make a connection, DL was actually worried some business pax might actually opt for NK. Yes we know most business pax avoid NK for obvious reasons, but if the other option becomes bad enough, at some point the business pax might opt for them. I don’t know, but maybe 3 hours in a RJ might qualify.


Then they shouldn't have been flying the RJ in the first place. Kudos to NK for calling Delta's bluff.

You use the equipment that allows you to best satisfy the market and make the best profit. DL obviously felt the CR9 did that. And since they had a monopoly on DTW-JAX nonstop, they had everything going for them. NK saw a good oportunity to undercut DL with much lower fares and costs. (This is the point where business and animals are the same). DL saw this as a threat and since they can't act like a lion and maul NK limb from limb physically, they do it in the business sense: undercut them further and whoever bleeds the most dies (or in this case drops the route, or somehow find a coexistence by each finding a niche in that particular market). DL has every right to defend itself just as NK has every right to enter the market. If DL really wanted to screw DTW, theyd tuck tail and drop DTW-JAX altogether resulting in a loss for Detroit which is a very economically depressed city that is extremely lucky to have the kind of megahub that it has.
When wasn't America great?


The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
 
laca773
Posts: 2080
Joined: Sat Nov 06, 2004 7:10 am

Re: DL goes double daily mainline on DTW-JAX

Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:12 am

This is great news for both JAX. JAX has always been an important station to DL as are all the major airports in Florida. DL knows what they are doing. It's great to hear about DL adding an additional BOS flight and JFK is now seeing some mainline. Personally, I thought we might see LGA upgauged on a flight or two to mainline before JFK, but that's okay. It shows DL's commitment in all these markets and wanting to be the preferred carrier. With the A220s coming, perhaps we will see MSP upgauged. I wouldn't be surprised to see DTW see a mix of M90s, and once they have a decent number of A220-100s, perhaps they will utilize them in that market or their already strong 717 fleet might be ideal on quieter days.
 
xdlx
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Re: DL goes double daily mainline on DTW-JAX

Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:53 am

Lexy wrote:
Because JAX is a bottomless pit of money that airlines neglect?


Actually JAX is probably one of the highest yield FLORIDA stations for DL. Spirit could have chose to fly to SJU from JAX and DL would have not flinched, but by choosing to fight to a DL HUB the reaction is expected. Spirit is a welcome addition to JAX! However a NONSTOP to PHX rather than DTW IMHO would have been a better start...
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: DL goes double daily mainline on DTW-JAX

Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:07 pm

evank516 wrote:
DTW has become such a taboo topic on a.net. It's becoming quite pathetic. I have my first planned connection there in January on my way to MKE. First time ever. And I'm about to be Gold Medallion who makes frequent trips to the Midwest from the Northeast.


First WOW didn't discontinue DTW now Delta starting a double daily mainline non-stop to JAX. Too much to take. Imagine if Qatar starts a non-stop to DOH.
 
evank516
Posts: 1977
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Re: DL goes double daily mainline on DTW-JAX

Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:08 pm

laca773 wrote:
This is great news for both JAX. JAX has always been an important station to DL as are all the major airports in Florida. DL knows what they are doing. It's great to hear about DL adding an additional BOS flight and JFK is now seeing some mainline. Personally, I thought we might see LGA upgauged on a flight or two to mainline before JFK, but that's okay. It shows DL's commitment in all these markets and wanting to be the preferred carrier. With the A220s coming, perhaps we will see MSP upgauged. I wouldn't be surprised to see DTW see a mix of M90s, and once they have a decent number of A220-100s, perhaps they will utilize them in that market or their already strong 717 fleet might be ideal on quieter days.


At least for this week, JFK-JAX is ALL mainline. It's pretty spectacular and I'm surprised it took so long. JAX was the only Florida station that was all RJs year round on all of their NYC flights. Maybe there's some additional pressure from jetBlue now?
 
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enilria
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Re: DL goes double daily mainline on DTW-JAX

Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:19 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
You use the equipment that allows you to best satisfy the market and make the best profit....undercut them further and whoever bleeds the most dies

Ironically you first say airlines schedule the airplane that allows them to make the best profit and then say they are now scheduling an airplane that allows them to inflict the most damage on a competitor. Just to be clear, the option that causes NK to lose the most money is not the option that maximizes profit for Delta. That's why such moves are anti-competitive. You probably agree with that, but I just found the juxtaposition funny.
 
klm617
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Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: DL goes double daily mainline on DTW-JAX

Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:51 pm

evank516 wrote:
DTW has become such a taboo topic on a.net. It's becoming quite pathetic. I have my first planned connection there in January on my way to MKE. First time ever. And I'm about to be Gold Medallion who makes frequent trips to the Midwest from the Northeast.



Detroit is not a taboo subject on a.net. Stop being bullied into submission by all these self proclaimed aviation gurus that just regurgitate the business plans of the airlines they work for. This is a public forum and your allowed to speak you mind even if someone doesn't agree with your point of view they don't have the right to bully you into submission.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
evank516
Posts: 1977
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:15 am

Re: DL goes double daily mainline on DTW-JAX

Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:30 pm

klm617 wrote:
evank516 wrote:
DTW has become such a taboo topic on a.net. It's becoming quite pathetic. I have my first planned connection there in January on my way to MKE. First time ever. And I'm about to be Gold Medallion who makes frequent trips to the Midwest from the Northeast.



Detroit is not a taboo subject on a.net. Stop being bullied into submission by all these self proclaimed aviation gurus that just regurgitate the business plans of the airlines they work for. This is a public forum and your allowed to speak you mind even if someone doesn't agree with your point of view they don't have the right to bully you into submission.


It so is! I'm not being bullied into submission by any means. DTW is simply different for Delta than it was for NW. Do I think JFK-DTW being on mostly RJs is a bit pathetic? Yeah I do. Do I think some DTW routes could stand to be upgauged? Absolutely. Do I think DL going double daily mainline on DTW-JAX is good? You bet I do. Do I think DTW is the second coming of Jesus and is being neglected by Delta? No way.

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