simpv
Topic Author
Posts: 163
Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2016 12:19 pm

Amazon's HQ2 Impact on DC's aviation?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:33 pm

Reports today that Crystal City, VA, is in advanced discussions for Amazon's HQ2.
https://www.apnews.com/b9247caa991749c2b2cff090a8faa773

It is located across the street from DCA--and with an influx of 50,000 high-paid workers, would certainly increase demand. If this turns out to be true, what would be the impact on DC's aviation? DCA is already packed.

Update: Does it help UA's IAD hub expand?
Last edited by SQ22 on Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Reason: Title was unclear
 
deltaffindfw
Posts: 1489
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 7:42 am

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:41 pm

I don't know why you say IAD needs a "lifeline". UA is aggressively moving east coast connecting traffic from EWR to IAD and adding TATL flights.
 
simpv
Topic Author
Posts: 163
Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2016 12:19 pm

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:45 pm

deltaffindfw wrote:
I don't know why you say IAD needs a "lifeline". UA is aggressively moving east coast connecting traffic from EWR to IAD and adding TATL flights.

Agreed. Edited the original post.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 2773
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:47 pm

Now there are articles saying NYC and Dallas are still in. That said, if any of these 3 get it, I think it is just a blip on the radar.
 
User avatar
STT757
Posts: 13828
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:47 pm

simpv wrote:
Reports today that Crystal City, VA, is in advanced discussions for Amazon's HQ2.
https://www.apnews.com/b9247caa991749c2b2cff090a8faa773

It is located across the street from DCA--and with an influx of 50,000 high-paid workers, would certainly increase demand. If this turns out to be true, what would be the impact on DC's aviation? DCA is already packed. Does it throw UA's IAD hub a lifeline?


Obviously the big winner would be AA, as they're the hub carrier, also AS since they have the only nonstop to SEA. But since DCA is slot controlled the only way to grow is to upgauge equipment on existing flights. Obviously there will be some positive impact for IAD, DL seemingly anticipating this recently added another IAD-SEA frequency. So definitely AA and DCA and perhaps IAD.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
Bricktop
Posts: 1375
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:04 am

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:57 pm

STT757 wrote:
simpv wrote:
Reports today that Crystal City, VA, is in advanced discussions for Amazon's HQ2.
https://www.apnews.com/b9247caa991749c2b2cff090a8faa773

It is located across the street from DCA--and with an influx of 50,000 high-paid workers, would certainly increase demand. If this turns out to be true, what would be the impact on DC's aviation? DCA is already packed. Does it throw UA's IAD hub a lifeline?


Obviously the big winner would be AA, as they're the hub carrier, also AS since they have the only nonstop to SEA. But since DCA is slot controlled the only way to grow is to upgauge equipment on existing flights. Obviously there will be some positive impact for IAD, DL seemingly anticipating this recently added another IAD-SEA frequency. So definitely AA and DCA and perhaps IAD.

What upgauging can be done at DCA though, and where to apart from SEA? AFAIK there's no WB flights from there now, so even if it's an RJ to a 737/A320, that's not a whole lot of seats. Looking at this am's arrivals, the biggest things coming in are two DL A321's from ATL.
 
Noise
Posts: 2445
Joined: Wed Dec 22, 1999 7:38 am

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:00 pm

Bricktop wrote:
STT757 wrote:
simpv wrote:
Reports today that Crystal City, VA, is in advanced discussions for Amazon's HQ2.
https://www.apnews.com/b9247caa991749c2b2cff090a8faa773

It is located across the street from DCA--and with an influx of 50,000 high-paid workers, would certainly increase demand. If this turns out to be true, what would be the impact on DC's aviation? DCA is already packed. Does it throw UA's IAD hub a lifeline?


Obviously the big winner would be AA, as they're the hub carrier, also AS since they have the only nonstop to SEA. But since DCA is slot controlled the only way to grow is to upgauge equipment on existing flights. Obviously there will be some positive impact for IAD, DL seemingly anticipating this recently added another IAD-SEA frequency. So definitely AA and DCA and perhaps IAD.

What upgauging can be done at DCA though, and where to apart from SEA? AFAIK there's no WB flights from there now, so even if it's an RJ to a 737/A320, that's not a whole lot of seats. Looking at this am's arrivals, the biggest things coming in are two DL A321's from ATL.


You'll see more 757s, A321s and 739s.

A CRJ9 to an A321 is a big jump in seats.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 5402
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:02 pm

Bricktop wrote:
STT757 wrote:
simpv wrote:
Reports today that Crystal City, VA, is in advanced discussions for Amazon's HQ2.
https://www.apnews.com/b9247caa991749c2b2cff090a8faa773

It is located across the street from DCA--and with an influx of 50,000 high-paid workers, would certainly increase demand. If this turns out to be true, what would be the impact on DC's aviation? DCA is already packed. Does it throw UA's IAD hub a lifeline?


Obviously the big winner would be AA, as they're the hub carrier, also AS since they have the only nonstop to SEA. But since DCA is slot controlled the only way to grow is to upgauge equipment on existing flights. Obviously there will be some positive impact for IAD, DL seemingly anticipating this recently added another IAD-SEA frequency. So definitely AA and DCA and perhaps IAD.

What upgauging can be done at DCA though, and where to apart from SEA? AFAIK there's no WB flights from there now, so even if it's an RJ to a 737/A320, that's not a whole lot of seats.


Take a look at DCA arrivals on FlightAware. There's a TON of upgauging that can be done. Not necessarily to SEA, but there is a lot of CR2/E145/E75/CR7/CR9/319 traffic.

https://flightaware.com/live/airport/KD ... ;sort=DESC
 
Bricktop
Posts: 1375
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:04 am

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:06 pm

Perhaps, but I'd be more concerned about the road traffic impact if I lived in NoVA. That US1/395/GW Parkway area is already a clusterF, and all those techno-yuppies will make it much harder for me to get a table at Eve. ;)
 
User avatar
flyPIT
Posts: 1586
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 6:21 am

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:07 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
Now there are articles saying NYC and Dallas are still in. That said, if any of these 3 get it, I think it is just a blip on the radar.

Agreed. HQ2 is supposed to add 50,000 jobs but that is over a 15+ year period so that amounts to about 3,000 jobs per year for a region already adding 65,000 jobs per year.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/23/dc-area-job-market-churns-along-despite-federal-drawdown/?utm_term=.01bdefa5e395
FLYi
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 4011
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:08 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
STT757 wrote:

Obviously the big winner would be AA, as they're the hub carrier, also AS since they have the only nonstop to SEA. But since DCA is slot controlled the only way to grow is to upgauge equipment on existing flights. Obviously there will be some positive impact for IAD, DL seemingly anticipating this recently added another IAD-SEA frequency. So definitely AA and DCA and perhaps IAD.

What upgauging can be done at DCA though, and where to apart from SEA? AFAIK there's no WB flights from there now, so even if it's an RJ to a 737/A320, that's not a whole lot of seats.


Take a look at DCA arrivals on FlightAware. There's a TON of upgauging that can be done. Not necessarily to SEA, but there is a lot of CR2/E145/E75/CR7/CR9/319 traffic.

https://flightaware.com/live/airport/KD ... ;sort=DESC


You can’t upguage those RJ flights from DCA, DCA only has a limited number of mainline gates, and has dozens of gates for RJs
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
Bricktop
Posts: 1375
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:04 am

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:14 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Take a look at DCA arrivals on FlightAware. There's a TON of upgauging that can be done. Not necessarily to SEA, but there is a lot of CR2/E145/E75/CR7/CR9/319 traffic.

https://flightaware.com/live/airport/KD ... ;sort=DESC

I did, and there are a LOT of small jets going in there. I know from spotting down there at Gravelly Point a few times. But a lot of those RJ's come from and go to places probably irrelevant enough to Amazon that they don't matter. It's silly to say there won't be any upgauging, but I don't think it's going to be THAT much. Amazon is a serious player in Cloud Computing, and I bet they will be doing more on the teleconferencing side, etc. And it's not like 50,000 people will show up the day after the decision anyway. IAC, it'll be all moot when they choose Dallas. ;-)
 
YoungDon
Posts: 608
Joined: Thu May 31, 2001 9:33 am

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:19 pm

Bricktop wrote:
Perhaps, but I'd be more concerned about the road traffic impact if I lived in NoVA. That US1/395/GW Parkway area is already a clusterF, and all those techno-yuppies will make it much harder for me to get a table at Eve. ;)

This. DCA's issue isn't only space on the landside, but also on the airside. The road system around there is an absolute mess and will only get worse.

DCA looks from where I sit to be almost maxed out. Terminal space is OK, but everything else is bursting at the seams. It will be interesting to see how the market responds over the next few years. I couldn't imagine they could get above 30 million passengers a year without major changes to both the landside and airside.
 
simpv
Topic Author
Posts: 163
Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2016 12:19 pm

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:25 pm

Bricktop wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Take a look at DCA arrivals on FlightAware. There's a TON of upgauging that can be done. Not necessarily to SEA, but there is a lot of CR2/E145/E75/CR7/CR9/319 traffic.

https://flightaware.com/live/airport/KD ... ;sort=DESC

I did, and there are a LOT of small jets going in there. I know from spotting down there at Gravelly Point a few times. But a lot of those RJ's come from and go to places probably irrelevant enough to Amazon that they don't matter. It's silly to say there won't be any upgauging, but I don't think it's going to be THAT much. Amazon is a serious player in Cloud Computing, and I bet they will be doing more on the teleconferencing side, etc. And it's not like 50,000 people will show up the day after the decision anyway. IAC, it'll be all moot when they choose Dallas. ;-)


I suppose one solution would be for AA and others to eliminate the lower yielding destinations from DCA, switching them over to higher frequency on more profitable routes.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 1394
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:26 pm

Picking DC area makes no sense unless Amazon wants to be the 'shopping center' for the Government. I saw recently that they would love to be the Cloud for the US Government, among other things. Maybe their HQ2 is the campaign office for the 20% of the economy Amazon has not invaded.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4365
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:27 pm

This is so overblown on here!!

Will this create some traffic yes. This is not some game changer that will support an entirely new hub like people are making it seem. Amazon i bet you will charter plane or use their own to move alot of cargo.

AS stated: HQ2 is supposed to add 50,000 jobs but that is OVER a 15+ year period so that amounts to less than 3,000 jobs per year for a region already adding 65,000 jobs per year! This is not something that will add a hub of flights. Maybe an increase in equipment choices or an extra flights to SEA is in store.
 
Bricktop
Posts: 1375
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:04 am

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:33 pm

simpv wrote:
I suppose one solution would be for AA and others to eliminate the lower yielding destinations from DCA, switching them over to higher frequency on more profitable routes.

I think many of those destinations are politically motivated to suck up to powerful congress-critters. Easier thought (probably best not even whispered) than done.
 
simpv
Topic Author
Posts: 163
Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2016 12:19 pm

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:34 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
This is so overblown on here!!

Will this create some traffic yes. This is not some game changer that will support an entirely new hub like people are making it seem. Amazon i bet you will charter plane or use their own to move alot of cargo.

AS stated: HQ2 is supposed to add 50,000 jobs but that is OVER a 15+ year period so that amounts to less than 3,000 jobs per year for a region already adding 65,000 jobs per year! This is not something that will add a hub of flights. Maybe an increase in equipment choices or an extra flights to SEA is in store.


I agree that HQ2's impact should not be overstated, but I do think it can have a substantial impact. These 50,000 workers will be, on average, more highly educated and highly paid, and are likely to fly more often than the average American. If they bring their families along, another boost. There is also the business traffic that a new HQ2 would generate from vendors, consultants, etc. As I corrected, it won't create or save a hub, but I think the impact would not be negligible.
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 5396
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:03 pm

757s? What decade are we living in?

321/739 is about it for DCA.

Most of those RJs park in RJ spots with no room for more mainline aircraft.

Just pushes up demand and fares in DCA with spill for lower fare travel to IAD and BWI
 
tphuang
Posts: 2985
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:08 pm

HQ2 is a super overrated event. The entire thing is ego trip for Jeff Bezos.
 
N212R
Posts: 206
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:18 pm

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:11 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Picking DC area makes no sense unless Amazon wants to be the 'shopping center' for the Government. I saw recently that they would love to be the Cloud for the US Government, among other things. Maybe their HQ2 is the campaign office for the 20% of the economy Amazon has not invaded.


The megalomania of an unhinged Bezos knows no bounds.
 
7673mech
Posts: 522
Joined: Tue Mar 30, 2004 10:10 am

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:25 pm

Nonstop flights to Asia and India from DC area to support the H1B workers. Anyone who thinks those 50,000 jobs are all for Americans is naive.
 
Flighty
Posts: 9963
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 3:07 am

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:44 pm

Simple, it will just make AA's DCA even more of a juggernaut than it already is. Maybe we'll talk about perimeter relaxation.

The reason it's not out by IAD is the young, cheaper workforce Amazon is hooked on wants to live in the urbanized zone. By the time the workers are grown up or require suburbs, Amazon does not want them anyway.
 
winginit
Posts: 2544
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:51 pm

Flighty wrote:
Simple, it will just make AA's DCA even more of a juggernaut than it already is. Maybe we'll talk about perimeter relaxation.


Is AA's DCA a juggernaut really compared to other hubs? They have less than 50% of the seat share as of 2018. That's a full 20-30 pts below most legacy carrier hubs.

Flighty wrote:
The reason it's not out by IAD is the young, cheaper workforce Amazon is hooked on wants to live in the urbanized zone. By the time the workers are grown up or require suburbs, Amazon does not want them anyway.


As of last year the median employee age at Amazon was 31... higher than Facebook, LinkedIn, Salesforce, Google, and Apple...
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 17684
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:57 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
757s? What decade are we living in?

321/739 is about it for DCA.

Most of those RJs park in RJ spots with no room for more mainline aircraft.

Just pushes up demand and fares in DCA with spill for lower fare travel to IAD and BWI

Yeah, that sums it up. DCA fares will increase, maybe some upgauge. Mostly this will benefit IAD, but BWI will also see spill.

This will increase traffic by what, 3% in the region? So significant, but not game changing.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
raylee67
Posts: 675
Joined: Mon Oct 24, 2011 11:06 pm

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:04 pm

The impact is there will likely be shuttle flights between SEA and IAD. Depends on corporate travel contract of Amazon (i.e. does it just sign with one airline or does it sign with all?), we will see either just one airline introducing the shuttle flights or all of UA, DL and AS rushing to capture this.
319/20/21 332/33 342/43/45 351 388 707 717 732/36/3G/38/39 74R/42/43/44/4E/48 757 762/63 772/7L/73/7W 788/89 D10 M80 135/40/45 175/90 DH1/4 CRJ/R7 L10
AY LH OU SR BA FI
AA DL UA NW AC CP WS FL NK PD
CI NH SQ KA CX JL BR OZ TG KE CA CZ NZ JQ RS
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 7070
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:10 pm

No impact at all, Alexa will do all the travel.
 
blockski
Posts: 497
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:30 pm

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:29 pm

Just eyeballing it here. Existing non-stop flights, SEA to DC Area:

SEA-IAD: 3x UA, 1x DL, 1x AS
SEA-DCA: 2x AS
SEA-BWI: 1x WN, 1x AS
 
User avatar
kjeld0d
Posts: 443
Joined: Mon Nov 14, 2016 9:21 pm

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:42 pm

simpv wrote:
50,000 high-paid workers


where in the article does it say these are high paid jobs?
 
User avatar
enilria
Posts: 9484
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact on DC's aviation?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:59 pm

simpv wrote:
Reports today that Crystal City, VA, is in advanced discussions for Amazon's HQ2.
https://www.apnews.com/b9247caa991749c2b2cff090a8faa773

It is located across the street from DCA--and with an influx of 50,000 high-paid workers, would certainly increase demand. If this turns out to be true, what would be the impact on DC's aviation? DCA is already packed.

Update: Does it help UA's IAD hub expand?

Crystal City is about 100 yards from DCA. Why would that help IAD? This will create pressure to eliminate the perimeter rule IMHO. That will hurt IAD a lot and be a huge present to AA.
 
Flighty
Posts: 9963
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 3:07 am

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:05 pm

winginit wrote:
Flighty wrote:
Simple, it will just make AA's DCA even more of a juggernaut than it already is. Maybe we'll talk about perimeter relaxation.


Is AA's DCA a juggernaut really compared to other hubs? They have less than 50% of the seat share as of 2018. That's a full 20-30 pts below most legacy carrier hubs.

Flighty wrote:
The reason it's not out by IAD is the young, cheaper workforce Amazon is hooked on wants to live in the urbanized zone. By the time the workers are grown up or require suburbs, Amazon does not want them anyway.


As of last year the median employee age at Amazon was 31... higher than Facebook, LinkedIn, Salesforce, Google, and Apple...


You make good points. I think everyone does well at DCA. Probably some of the highest yielding flights in the US, particularly those perimeter exemptions.

Amazon is not renowned as a great employer, but they are a highly skilled big company. They are known to run people ragged until they "retire" to a more relaxing company like Microsoft. I visited Crystal City 1-2 years back and not a lot is going on there right now. The existing development could accommodate a lot of influx of activity and money. I believe the rumors. The site is well suited to absorbing a big installation within existing offices, and to the benefit of nearby shops, hotels and so forth. Condo prices will rise. Overall this is a win win.
 
HeeseokKoo
Posts: 812
Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:54 pm

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact on DC's aviation?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:05 pm

Maybe DL (and others too) would switch some of its DCA-SLC to DCA-SEA if it happens.
 
blockski
Posts: 497
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:30 pm

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact on DC's aviation?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:06 pm

enilria wrote:
simpv wrote:
Reports today that Crystal City, VA, is in advanced discussions for Amazon's HQ2.
https://www.apnews.com/b9247caa991749c2b2cff090a8faa773

It is located across the street from DCA--and with an influx of 50,000 high-paid workers, would certainly increase demand. If this turns out to be true, what would be the impact on DC's aviation? DCA is already packed.

Update: Does it help UA's IAD hub expand?

Crystal City is about 100 yards from DCA. Why would that help IAD? This will create pressure to eliminate the perimeter rule IMHO. That will hurt IAD a lot and be a huge present to AA.


Because it's extremely unlikely that Amazon offices will lead to the repeal of the perimeter rule. The NoVa politicians that all want HQ2 are also all in favor of retaining the perimeter rule, precisely because they know it's important to IAD.
 
Clem518
Posts: 1
Joined: Thu Feb 24, 2011 2:03 pm

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact on DC's aviation?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:08 pm

The other Northern Virginia location under consideration is a large tract of land and related developments straddling the Fairfax and Loudon County borders, just northeast of IAD. This location is in close proximity to a number of Amazon's data centers; in fact, six new Amazon data centers are already planned for this tract, in addition to others planned for Leesburg and Ashburn.

I would expect that even if Amazon were to select Crystal City, that IAD will see increased traffic. I would also expect big increases in GA (corporate) traffic at both IAD, and the DC metro area's largest GA Airport. Manassas Regional (HEF).
Last edited by Clem518 on Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
FSDan
Posts: 2478
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact on DC's aviation?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:09 pm

HeeseokKoo wrote:
Maybe DL (and others too) would switch some of its DCA-SLC to DCA-SEA if it happens.


DL's remaining DCA-SLC flight is tied to that route. Their unerestricted beyond-perimeter slot is currently used for DCA-LAX.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
bevan7
Posts: 85
Joined: Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:44 am

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:11 pm

Bricktop wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Take a look at DCA arrivals on FlightAware. There's a TON of upgauging that can be done. Not necessarily to SEA, but there is a lot of CR2/E145/E75/CR7/CR9/319 traffic.

https://flightaware.com/live/airport/KD ... ;sort=DESC

I did, and there are a LOT of small jets going in there. I know from spotting down there at Gravelly Point a few times. But a lot of those RJ's come from and go to places probably irrelevant enough to Amazon that they don't matter. It's silly to say there won't be any upgauging, but I don't think it's going to be THAT much. Amazon is a serious player in Cloud Computing, and I bet they will be doing more on the teleconferencing side, etc. And it's not like 50,000 people will show up the day after the decision anyway. IAC, it'll be all moot when they choose Dallas. ;-)


What does IAC mean?
 
User avatar
TWA772LR
Posts: 6757
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2011 6:12 am

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact on DC's aviation?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:14 pm

enilria wrote:
simpv wrote:
Reports today that Crystal City, VA, is in advanced discussions for Amazon's HQ2.
https://www.apnews.com/b9247caa991749c2b2cff090a8faa773

It is located across the street from DCA--and with an influx of 50,000 high-paid workers, would certainly increase demand. If this turns out to be true, what would be the impact on DC's aviation? DCA is already packed.

Update: Does it help UA's IAD hub expand?

Crystal City is about 100 yards from DCA. Why would that help IAD? This will create pressure to eliminate the perimeter rule IMHO. That will hurt IAD a lot and be a huge present to AA.

You can't land a 777 at DCA.
When wasn't America great?


The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
 
klm617
Posts: 4339
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:17 pm

deltaffindfw wrote:
I don't know why you say IAD needs a "lifeline". UA is aggressively moving east coast connecting traffic from EWR to IAD and adding TATL flights.


Yes and now we know why they are beefing up IAD.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
blockski
Posts: 497
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:30 pm

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact on DC's aviation?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:20 pm

HeeseokKoo wrote:
Maybe DL (and others too) would switch some of its DCA-SLC to DCA-SEA if it happens.


I don't think they can do that. They'd have to drop their DCA-LAX flight instead.

Most of the beyond-perimeter flights are tied to a specific airline and airport; only 4 of the perimeter exemptions created in 2012 are flexible; they were awarded then to the 4 incumbent carriers (DL, UA, AA, and US).

DL's two beyond perimeter flights are to SLC (fixed) and LAX (flexible).
 
DesMoineser
Posts: 10
Joined: Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:25 pm

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact on DC's aviation?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:28 pm

bevan7 wrote:
What does IAC mean?


In any case
 
User avatar
enilria
Posts: 9484
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact on DC's aviation?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:44 pm

blockski wrote:
enilria wrote:
simpv wrote:
Reports today that Crystal City, VA, is in advanced discussions for Amazon's HQ2.
https://www.apnews.com/b9247caa991749c2b2cff090a8faa773

It is located across the street from DCA--and with an influx of 50,000 high-paid workers, would certainly increase demand. If this turns out to be true, what would be the impact on DC's aviation? DCA is already packed.

Update: Does it help UA's IAD hub expand?

Crystal City is about 100 yards from DCA. Why would that help IAD? This will create pressure to eliminate the perimeter rule IMHO. That will hurt IAD a lot and be a huge present to AA.


Because it's extremely unlikely that Amazon offices will lead to the repeal of the perimeter rule. The NoVa politicians that all want HQ2 are also all in favor of retaining the perimeter rule, precisely because they know it's important to IAD.

All true now, but that's because Amazon isn't there yet. They have a lot of money to lobby and that will be a big deal for them to have to trek out to IAD for the West. At the barest minimum there will be another liberalization, but I think with the massive Amazon lobbying influence it will go down completely.
 
User avatar
enilria
Posts: 9484
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact on DC's aviation?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:45 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
enilria wrote:
simpv wrote:
Reports today that Crystal City, VA, is in advanced discussions for Amazon's HQ2.
https://www.apnews.com/b9247caa991749c2b2cff090a8faa773

It is located across the street from DCA--and with an influx of 50,000 high-paid workers, would certainly increase demand. If this turns out to be true, what would be the impact on DC's aviation? DCA is already packed.

Update: Does it help UA's IAD hub expand?

Crystal City is about 100 yards from DCA. Why would that help IAD? This will create pressure to eliminate the perimeter rule IMHO. That will hurt IAD a lot and be a huge present to AA.

You can't land a 777 at DCA.

? 777s operate a tiny % of all transcons in the USA. A320s and A321s are very common. Not sure your point?
 
YoungDon
Posts: 608
Joined: Thu May 31, 2001 9:33 am

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact on DC's aviation?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:54 pm

blockski wrote:
enilria wrote:
simpv wrote:
Reports today that Crystal City, VA, is in advanced discussions for Amazon's HQ2.
https://www.apnews.com/b9247caa991749c2b2cff090a8faa773

It is located across the street from DCA--and with an influx of 50,000 high-paid workers, would certainly increase demand. If this turns out to be true, what would be the impact on DC's aviation? DCA is already packed.

Update: Does it help UA's IAD hub expand?

Crystal City is about 100 yards from DCA. Why would that help IAD? This will create pressure to eliminate the perimeter rule IMHO. That will hurt IAD a lot and be a huge present to AA.


Because it's extremely unlikely that Amazon offices will lead to the repeal of the perimeter rule. The NoVa politicians that all want HQ2 are also all in favor of retaining the perimeter rule, precisely because they know it's important to IAD.


I agree that even if Amazon chooses Crystal City, the perimeter rule is here to stay. The reason is because physically you can only squeeze so many more flights into DCA, and IAD (and even BWI to a lesser extent) are going to still be choices for a lot of the travel that the additional 50,000 people will generate. All of Amazon's employees will not be living inside the Beltway - IAD or BWI will still be a more than viable option for a good chunk of those even if the physical offices are in Crystal City.

I really don't see this having much of an effect at all, except for perhaps some extra SEA frequencies from AA/AS.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 2773
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact on DC's aviation?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 7:52 pm

Now it won't even be 50K workers. They are going to pick 2 cities and put 25K in each. Again, probably DC and then Dallas or NYC. Not much of an impact in cities that big. https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-pla ... 1541446552
 
User avatar
hOMSaR
Posts: 2164
Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 4:47 am

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 7:58 pm

klm617 wrote:
deltaffindfw wrote:
I don't know why you say IAD needs a "lifeline". UA is aggressively moving east coast connecting traffic from EWR to IAD and adding TATL flights.


Yes and now we know why they are beefing up IAD.


Actually, we've known for a while. They don't have a lot of room to grow at EWR, so by shifting connections to IAD, they can focus EWR more on the O&D traffic. This was announced many months, if not a year ago.
The plural of Airbus is Airbuses. Airbii is not a word.
There is no 787-800, nor 787-900 or 747-800. It's 787-8, 787-9, and 747-8.
A321neoLR is also unnecessary. It's simply A321LR.
Airplanes don't have isles, they have aisles.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4365
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact

Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:14 pm

simpv wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
This is so overblown on here!!

Will this create some traffic yes. This is not some game changer that will support an entirely new hub like people are making it seem. Amazon i bet you will charter plane or use their own to move alot of cargo.

AS stated: HQ2 is supposed to add 50,000 jobs but that is OVER a 15+ year period so that amounts to less than 3,000 jobs per year for a region already adding 65,000 jobs per year! This is not something that will add a hub of flights. Maybe an increase in equipment choices or an extra flights to SEA is in store.


I agree that HQ2's impact should not be overstated, but I do think it can have a substantial impact. These 50,000 workers will be, on average, more highly educated and highly paid, and are likely to fly more often than the average American. If they bring their families along, another boost. There is also the business traffic that a new HQ2 would generate from vendors, consultants, etc. As I corrected, it won't create or save a hub, but I think the impact would not be negligible.


Amazon is not moving 50,000 people in or even close. The whole point of a relocation was to tap a local large talent pool in a new city with a larger IT base. IE most of those people already live in the DC area for other companies. plus out of the that 50,000 people a larger percentage will never take a business trip. My friend and his wife both work for Amazon. Neither like to travel for leisure and neither have ever taken a business trip to my knowledge.

This is the most overrated thing ever on a.net. The impact and numbers are minimal for the DC population. Look at how many seats AA offers a day out of DCA. How much do you think these people will be traveling. only a small percentage will be frequent business travelers maybe 10% quite possibly less. Amazon is opening HQ2 to SAVE money not spend billions on air travel.
 
User avatar
TWA772LR
Posts: 6757
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2011 6:12 am

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact on DC's aviation?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:44 pm

enilria wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
enilria wrote:
Crystal City is about 100 yards from DCA. Why would that help IAD? This will create pressure to eliminate the perimeter rule IMHO. That will hurt IAD a lot and be a huge present to AA.

You can't land a 777 at DCA.

? 777s operate a tiny % of all transcons in the USA. A320s and A321s are very common. Not sure your point?

Amazon is a giant company with a worldwide presence. HQ2 will draw more than domestic traffic for Amazon, so anyone coming from abroad to visit/do business at HQ2 wanting a nonstop to DC will fly in to IAD.
When wasn't America great?


The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
 
User avatar
Dieuwer
Posts: 1334
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact on DC's aviation?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:46 pm

If this was Europe, Amazon would have been slapped with massive tax-evasion fines, slapped with abuse of public funds for private means, and charged with attempted graft and corruption.
 
blockski
Posts: 497
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:30 pm

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact on DC's aviation?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:52 pm

enilria wrote:
blockski wrote:
enilria wrote:
Crystal City is about 100 yards from DCA. Why would that help IAD? This will create pressure to eliminate the perimeter rule IMHO. That will hurt IAD a lot and be a huge present to AA.


Because it's extremely unlikely that Amazon offices will lead to the repeal of the perimeter rule. The NoVa politicians that all want HQ2 are also all in favor of retaining the perimeter rule, precisely because they know it's important to IAD.

All true now, but that's because Amazon isn't there yet. They have a lot of money to lobby and that will be a big deal for them to have to trek out to IAD for the West. At the barest minimum there will be another liberalization, but I think with the massive Amazon lobbying influence it will go down completely.


MWAA inserted terms into the most recent lease agreements for DCA and IAD that if the perimeter rule is altered or abolished, they reserve the right to void the leases and renegotiate terms. The purpose being to ensure all airlines at both airports are comfortable with the status quo and ensuring a stable environment for investing in both airports. And, if it does change, then MWAA has the leverage to demand even more revenue from DCA's windfall go to IAD (per the terms of the original plan for the airports which came from the Federal Government itself).

MWAA put on a heavy PR push during the last legislative debates to ensure the rule wasn't changed any further; they've successfully gotten the entire regional congressional delegation on board to support the status quo.

Anyway: DL, UA, and AA could all shift their exempted DCA flights to SEA if they so choose. But I suspect Amazon in Crystal City won't change things that fast.
 
iadadd
Posts: 255
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 10:16 pm

Re: Amazon's HQ2 Impact on DC's aviation?

Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:57 pm

If HQ2 is in Crystal City, then DCA will likely reach its full capacity rather soon, and IAD will act as a reliever and for any additional supply in the market. If HQ2 is in Tysons or the Reston/Herndon area then IAD will likely see a surge in traffic.

Nonetheless, I don't think Amazon alone will have a significant impact on aviation in the DMV

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos