sargester
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Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:01 pm

As we all know that JetBlue has committed to 60 A220-300s and are retiring the 60 E190s in their fleet right now, it occurred to me that some of the B6 E190s are as young as 5 years old, it seems like these aircraft would be perfectly suitable to pick up for any airline looking for a cheap midsize jet,

Thoughts?
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:19 pm

Any airline? No - they won't be picked up my a U.S. carrier that has an RJ scope clause that forces them to be flown by mainline pilots (like AA, DL, UA, WN). They don't provide the economics for that.

Some carrier outside the U.S.? Very probably. I expect they will go very cheaply, on average. Has JetBlue already taken a write-down?
 
tphuang
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:35 pm

I believe JetBlue has already taken a write-down in the past 2 quarters. Maybe more write-down will be needed in the future if they find the market to be even weaker than expected.
 
SRQLOT
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:36 pm

Maybe LOT? They did get the 6 former Azul E-195s and now about to get 4 new E-190s. They could use extra E-190s to cover European flying and move all the E-170-175s to Polish domestic service. The Q-400 are getting really bad and need to be replaced soon!
 
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:42 pm

The 2Q earnings presentation shows they have taken a write down in 2018 and are accelerating depreciation for the next few years.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:52 pm

These will sell due to the accelerated write downs. For some airline that flies far lower utilization than JetBlue.

A few will probably become parts.
Per airfleets.net (production summary), 692 of 754 (190&195) are still flying or 92%. For the right price, E-jets find homes.

As the oldest E-190s that are fleet leaders (most use), they will have to trade discounted. Cest la vie.

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ahj2000
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:00 pm

SRQLOT wrote:
Maybe LOT? They did get the 6 former Azul E-195s and now about to get 4 new E-190s. They could use extra E-190s to cover European flying and move all the E-170-175s to Polish domestic service. The Q-400 are getting really bad and need to be replaced soon!

I second the idea of LOT and also raise Finnair and Azul.
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turk223
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:12 pm

Although I doubt it will happen, but I think that Copa could find some use for them?
 
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redzeppelin
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:52 pm

lightsaber wrote:
These will sell due to the accelerated write downs. For some airline that flies far lower utilization than JetBlue.


This statement made me think of Allegiant. They seem to be comfortable moving on to the Airbus fleet as they retire the MDs, but the low acquisition cost, low utilization concept is their model. Is there any scenario where they might be interested in a smaller type?
 
deltadudejg
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:28 am

I wonder if carriers like CalPacific/ADI; Elite Airways; Porter; Via Air; Contour would ever consider these birds.
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MO11
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:44 am

deltadudejg wrote:
I wonder if carriers like CalPacific/ADI; Elite Airways; Porter; Via Air; Contour would ever consider these birds.


Only if they want a faster track to going broke.
 
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:52 am

Delta ;)
 
IAmGaroott
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:23 am

I've always heard E190s are maintenance nightmares. So I expect most of them to be parked in the desert.
 
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:35 am

ahj2000 wrote:
I second the idea of LOT and also raise Finnair and Azul.


Azul is not adding 1st gen E-Jets, they're taking deliveries of A320 NEO and will get E-Jets E2.
Actually, some of their E-Jets left the fleet already.
I wonder when people will understand:
Embraer 190 or simply E190, not ERJ-190. E-Jets are NOT ERJs!
Boeing 747-8, not Boeing 747-800. Same goes for 787.
Airbus A320, not Airbus 320.
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rj1385
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:47 am

60 from jetBlue and 20 from AA. Big fleet on the market for someone to pick up.

Aeromexico Connect is adding more from Air Canada so they could look for some at a great deal.
I would think that charter companies would possibly love them, especially if the tv's and all will be left in place.

Think the oldest 10, if not oldest 20 are going to be worth more as parts.
 
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:52 am

redzeppelin wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
These will sell due to the accelerated write downs. For some airline that flies far lower utilization than JetBlue.


This statement made me think of Allegiant. They seem to be comfortable moving on to the Airbus fleet as they retire the MDs, but the low acquisition cost, low utilization concept is their model. Is there any scenario where they might be interested in a smaller type?

Allegiant is a good analogy, but unlikely to buy E-jets. We need to look for an airline that during the peak season commands even higher premiums, but have a strong off season that allows for the Cate and feeding these planes need.

These are still good aircraft, they engines are just prone to shop visits, so a few extra spares are required and maintenance of the Airframe takes far too long due to found items like the wing spar.
..They also need enough slack in the schedule for the infamous 20 minute software reboot once or twice per day
Azul and JetBlue are just far too high utilization airlines to tolerate the quirks. I'm thinking island hopping.

These planes are safe and well supported. Sadly as I write this, I realize the buyer will want hot spares like Allegiant's MD-80s. But the fuel burn is too high for what I perceive as Allegiant's model.

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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:09 am

I believe AA is only getting rid of their's is because they only have a tiny fleet of them in the grand scheme of things and didn't like the acquisition cost of adding more to the fleet, especially since US dumped a bunch because they wanted to shrink and due to CBAs couldn't shed 737 or A320 below a certain amount.


DL is getting A220s now, so they're out.... had B6 gotten rid of these 5-6 years ago, they may have ended up at DL.

I wonder if UA could skirt scope clauses with these 60 frames and use them on high yield thin routes?

G4 business model requires high volume, low cost aircraft... I'm actually surprised they didn't add A321s instead A319s to go with the A320s.

NK could use a 110 seater to open up sub 1,200 mile routes in the midwest, but I don't know if they'd buy used.

F9 did not do well with E90 the first time around, might have been Broan Bedford's fault, sonce he basically bought F9 and YX to put ER4s and E75s at until a major needed capacity. Maybe a 110 seater will work for sub 1,000 mile routes on the coasts(DEN, LAS, TNT)
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:11 am

Man, I forgot AC, AA, B6, and Azul were all getting rid of the type. Of the E-190/195 opperators that is #1, #2, #7, and #9 opperators. Do I remember correctly AC scrapped some?

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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:26 am

And there is also the problem that potential second-hand aircraft don't come with the pilots included. If considered by a regional airline for expansion, they'd have a hard time crewing them.
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:44 am

lightsaber wrote:
Man, I forgot AC, AA, B6, and Azul were all getting rid of the type. Of the E-190/195 opperators that is #1, #2, #7, and #9 opperators. Do I remember correctly AC scrapped some?

Lightsaber


The economics of high utilization just don't favor these. They aren't adequately operating-cost efficient. I don't see Allegiant needing something smaller than 319s - they just cut frequency.
 
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wiggy
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:51 am

Can't they scrap them
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:15 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Man, I forgot AC, AA, B6, and Azul were all getting rid of the type. Of the E-190/195 opperators that is #1, #2, #7, and #9 opperators. Do I remember correctly AC scrapped some?

Lightsaber


The economics of high utilization just don't favor these. They aren't adequately operating-cost efficient. I don't see Allegiant needing something smaller than 319s - they just cut frequency.

Just because it had to be done, this is 163 of 692 active E-190/195 or 23.5% of the CFM-34-10 fleet looking for a new home prior to 2025.

https://www.airfleets.net/exploit/production-e190.htm

Hmmm.... I still think many of the JetBlue E-190s will find a home, but the more I think about this, the higher the fraction I see being parted. :(

JetBlue isn't playing nice:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/07/ ... s-emb.aspx
JetBlue will begin its fleet transition in 2020, when it will receive five A220-300s. It plans to retire the first of its 30 owned Embraer E190s that same year. JetBlue will receive another four A220s in 2021 and eight in 2022.

The bulk of the fleet transition will be executed in 2023 and 2024, when most of JetBlue's 30 leased E190s will come off lease. Indeed, 41 of the 60 firm A220 deliveries will come in those two years, followed by the last pair of aircraft in 2025.


Per this old thread:
viewtopic.php?t=606525
flyby519 wrote:
The 30 oldest frames are under lease. The most recent delivery of that batch was around 2007-2008.

Assuming that to be true:

So JetBlue will get rid of the 30 younger E-190s that they own first. Then they will return the 30 oldest E-190s to the leasing.
So 2020 through 2022 JetBlue sells off the owned (young) 2008+ E-190s. MSN 144 up to MSN 637.
Then in 2023 and 2024, the circa 2005-2007 Which is MSN 4 (yes four) up to (for JetBlue) MSN 125.

Obviously later frames have more PIPs and should be a little cheaper to maintain. At least the issues were found before they were expensive to fix.
Obviously the early MSNs will have the highest utilization.

So the leased E-190s will be returned at about 17 to 20 years of age well used. There won't be much market for them.
The owned E-190s will be marketed at 9 to 14 years of age. Every one of these should find a home.

So going back through the numbers, I expect most of the 30 owned (young) E-190s to find a home.
I expect most of the leased (old) E-190s to be scrapped.

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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:44 am

lightsaber wrote:
Man, I forgot AC, AA, B6, and Azul were all getting rid of the type. Of the E-190/195 opperators that is #1, #2, #7, and #9 opperators. Do I remember correctly AC scrapped some?

Lightsaber


After being traded around, some of the AC E190s were indeed scrapped. The resale value is pretty poor on the E190. (Some ended up ultimately with NAC.) I expect that GECAS, which owns the first 30 of the B6 E190s, will end up scrapping much of its batch if not all of them. Even the 30 owned B6 frames could be hard to sell as they have to be higher-cycle frames, although HA could be interested as a 717 supplement, if the CF34 can handle HA's requirements. Other potential customers could be Avianca or in eastern Europe, especially around the Baltics.
 
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:10 am

Airlink (South Africa) might be interested in a few more. Think they recently took the last of the initial batch ordered last year (10 E190+3 E170), but are still operating most of their AvroRJ85s as well, which was intended to be replaced by the Embraers. The airline continues to expand, and depending on what happens with SAA, they might be looking to take over some more routes.
 
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:01 am

How about some of the Australian operators on vintage 100-120seaters? There a dozens of Fokker 100s, Avro RJs and Boeing 717 flying in Australia (although my impression is that those operatirs are happy to keep them flying for the foreseeable future).
 
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:15 pm

turk223 wrote:
Although I doubt it will happen, but I think that Copa could find some use for them?


Not likely. CM may be also replacing its E190 as well in the near future. The only thing to ask is, will CM go for a full B737 fleet or upgrade to the E2 when the E1 are to be replaced?
 
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:41 pm

BA CityFlyer are adding four E190s to their fleet next year - a possible source?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:59 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Man, I forgot AC, AA, B6, and Azul were all getting rid of the type. Of the E-190/195 opperators that is #1, #2, #7, and #9 opperators. Do I remember correctly AC scrapped some?

Lightsaber


After being traded around, some of the AC E190s were indeed scrapped. The resale value is pretty poor on the E190. (Some ended up ultimately with NAC.) I expect that GECAS, which owns the first 30 of the B6 E190s, will end up scrapping much of its batch if not all of them. Even the 30 owned B6 frames could be hard to sell as they have to be higher-cycle frames, although HA could be interested as a 717 supplement, if the CF34 can handle HA's requirements. Other potential customers could be Avianca or in eastern Europe, especially around the Baltics.

I didn't realize the first 30 were vendor financed! :faint:

While B6 does fly intensely, their internally owned E-190s will be about 5 to 7 years less high cycle duty than the leased aircraft.

I did a quick estimation based off 8 cycles per day and 365 days per year.

The leased E-190s will be returned with too close to 60k cycles to be sellable.

The owned will be at 30k to 40k. Still enough life to sell to a low utilization opperator.

The rule of thumb is an aircraft goes from high to low utilization at about 15 years or 2/3rds it's cycles or hours. So this is at the right time.

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aemoreira1981
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:02 pm

BTW, two earlier examples were already disposed of: one was returned to Embraer (as lessor) and scrapped, and another was quickly transferred to Azul.
 
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:17 pm

Sancho99504 wrote:
I believe AA is only getting rid of their's is because they only have a tiny fleet of them in the grand scheme of things and didn't like the acquisition cost of adding more to the fleet, especially since US dumped a bunch because they wanted to shrink and due to CBAs couldn't shed 737 or A320 below a certain amount.


DL is getting A220s now, so they're out.... had B6 gotten rid of these 5-6 years ago, they may have ended up at DL.

I wonder if UA could skirt scope clauses with these 60 frames and use them on high yield thin routes?

G4 business model requires high volume, low cost aircraft... I'm actually surprised they didn't add A321s instead A319s to go with the A320s.

NK could use a 110 seater to open up sub 1,200 mile routes in the midwest, but I don't know if they'd buy used.

F9 did not do well with E90 the first time around, might have been Broan Bedford's fault, sonce he basically bought F9 and YX to put ER4s and E75s at until a major needed capacity. Maybe a 110 seater will work for sub 1,000 mile routes on the coasts(DEN, LAS, TNT)


The only way that AA/UA/DL end up with them is at mainline, fullstop. They're much too heavy to be flown at a regional (well, other than an AS regional). That said, I wouldn't expect them to stay in the US at all.
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ScottB
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 7:21 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Per airfleets.net (production summary), 692 of 754 (190&195) are still flying or 92%. For the right price, E-jets find homes.


Eh, that's pretty terrible for a type that only entered service 13 years ago. By comparison, the NG 737 entered service almost 21 years ago and 96% of those are still flying according to the same source. E170/175 are also up at 96% with a nearly identical production number.

Sancho99504 wrote:
I wonder if UA could skirt scope clauses with these 60 frames and use them on high yield thin routes?


They wouldn't really be able to "skirt scope clauses" since these aircraft would have to be operated as mainline, not by a regional outsourcer. And I can't really see United management being dumb enough to take on planes that B6 is dumping essentially because they're relatively inefficient hangar queens.
 
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:11 pm

lightsaber wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Man, I forgot AC, AA, B6, and Azul were all getting rid of the type. Of the E-190/195 opperators that is #1, #2, #7, and #9 opperators. Do I remember correctly AC scrapped some?

Lightsaber


After being traded around, some of the AC E190s were indeed scrapped. The resale value is pretty poor on the E190. (Some ended up ultimately with NAC.) I expect that GECAS, which owns the first 30 of the B6 E190s, will end up scrapping much of its batch if not all of them. Even the 30 owned B6 frames could be hard to sell as they have to be higher-cycle frames, although HA could be interested as a 717 supplement, if the CF34 can handle HA's requirements. Other potential customers could be Avianca or in eastern Europe, especially around the Baltics.

I didn't realize the first 30 were vendor financed! :faint:

While B6 does fly intensely, their internally owned E-190s will be about 5 to 7 years less high cycle duty than the leased aircraft.

I did a quick estimation based off 8 cycles per day and 365 days per year.

The leased E-190s will be returned with too close to 60k cycles to be sellable.

The owned will be at 30k to 40k. Still enough life to sell to a low utilization opperator.

The rule of thumb is an aircraft goes from high to low utilization at about 15 years or 2/3rds it's cycles or hours. So this is at the right time.

Lightsaber


I think you have majorly overestimated utilization.

As of this spring, N190JB (SN 11) had 35,000 hours and 22,000 cycles.
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Obzerva
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:57 pm

vfw614 wrote:
How about some of the Australian operators on vintage 100-120seaters? There a dozens of Fokker 100s, Avro RJs and Boeing 717 flying in Australia (although my impression is that those operatirs are happy to keep them flying for the foreseeable future).


Not sure on this, they would need to be going VERY cheap.

When VA got rid of theirs out of mainline no one locally in Australia seemed to express an interest.
Even VA’s own regional fleet will need replacing at some stage, but I’m thinking the lease costs on the Embraers was too prohibitive for then to be retained, even for the Western Australia fleet.
 
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:07 pm

Obzerva wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
How about some of the Australian operators on vintage 100-120seaters? There a dozens of Fokker 100s, Avro RJs and Boeing 717 flying in Australia (although my impression is that those operatirs are happy to keep them flying for the foreseeable future).


Not sure on this, they would need to be going VERY cheap.

When VA got rid of theirs out of mainline no one locally in Australia seemed to express an interest.
Even VA’s own regional fleet will need replacing at some stage, but I’m thinking the lease costs on the Embraers was too prohibitive for then to be retained, even for the Western Australia fleet.



With all of B6 and AAs fleet coming up on the market soon, there is no reason for a scrapper to buy them all, so I assume someone will buy them to operate- or they will trot in the desert.
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:22 pm

What's the floor durability in terms of possibility turning them into freighters?
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:42 pm

lightsaber wrote:
The rule of thumb is an aircraft goes from high to low utilization at about 15 years or 2/3rds it's cycles or hours. So this is at the right time.

We need to touch base in a few years on this subject, but...

Irrespective of hours and cycles, very few aircraft delivered since 2010 will be flying to age 20. Not because they run out of hours or cycles, but because support, especially software and engine support, will be priced to discourage.

Exception will be a few large legacies with significant in-house capability, but even they will lose interest other than for high volume workhorse models.

Already, leasing companies buying new WB aircraft struggle to get engine OEM's to contract beyond 15 years. And where WB goes today, NB is sure to follow.
 
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:44 pm

I wonder if TP will take some? They took some E190s and ATR72s from Azul (I think) to replace the old regional fleet at Portugália. With the slot constraints at LIS, it might make sense to completely replace the ATRs doing the OPO-LIS airbridge with E190s so they can offer the same amount of seats with slightly lower frequency (or conversely, grow capacity without increasing the number of slots used).
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MartijnNL
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:51 pm

sargester wrote:
As we all know that JetBlue has committed to 60 A220-300s and are retiring the 60 E190s in their fleet right now (...)

If I read the information in this thread correctly JetBlue are not retiring their 60 E190's right now. They are also not retiring the aircraft in 2019. The first E190's will leave the fleet in 2020. Why you would call the year 2020 right now, I don't know.

Personally I am very happy that the E190's will stay a little bit longer. It gives me more time to spot them. I suppose New York JFK is a good place to log those aircraft. So are Boston and Washington National I believe. Do anyone of you know other airports where a large part of the fleet can be seeing during a day?

Why are the E190's leaving anyway? Aren't they great machines? I have read KLM Cityhopper is very satisfied with their 49 E175/E190 combination. Only one spare aircraft is needed, compared to three when their fleet existed of Fokker aircraft.
 
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:06 pm

MartijnNL wrote:
Personally I am very happy that the E190's will stay a little bit longer. It gives me more time to spot them. I suppose New York JFK is a good place to log those aircraft. So are Boston and Washington National I believe. Do anyone of you know other airports where a large part of the fleet can be seeing during a day?


BOS is probably your best bet for seeing B6 E190s. They tend to be used on the thinner business-oriented routes on which an A320 would be far too many seats.

MartijnNL wrote:
Why are the E190's leaving anyway? Aren't they great machines?


They're not great machines. B6 has been unhappy with reliability and high maintenance costs. Moreover, the incoming A220 will give them ~30-40% more seats for the same trip cost as the e190, if not less.
 
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:35 pm

MartijnNL wrote:
sargester wrote:
As we all know that JetBlue has committed to 60 A220-300s and are retiring the 60 E190s in their fleet right now (...)

If I read the information in this thread correctly JetBlue are not retiring their 60 E190's right now. They are also not retiring the aircraft in 2019. The first E190's will leave the fleet in 2020. Why you would call the year 2020 right now, I don't know.

.


I think you misread the post. The "right now" indicates the E190s are currently in the fleet "right now", not that they are being retired immediately. English grammar can be pretty imprecise sometimes.
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:49 pm

MartijnNL wrote:
sargester wrote:
As we all know that JetBlue has committed to 60 A220-300s and are retiring the 60 E190s in their fleet right now (...)

If I read the information in this thread correctly JetBlue are not retiring their 60 E190's right now. They are also not retiring the aircraft in 2019. The first E190's will leave the fleet in 2020. Why you would call the year 2020 right now, I don't know.

Personally I am very happy that the E190's will stay a little bit longer. It gives me more time to spot them. I suppose New York JFK is a good place to log those aircraft. So are Boston and Washington National I believe. Do anyone of you know other airports where a large part of the fleet can be seeing during a day?

Why are the E190's leaving anyway? Aren't they great machines? I have read KLM Cityhopper is very satisfied with their 49 E175/E190 combination. Only one spare aircraft is needed, compared to three when their fleet existed of Fokker aircraft.

They are great in terms of comfort level for consumers but terrible economically for airlines. It’s hard for JetBlue to lower their cost while operating these machines.

In terms of where to find them, most of the short haul routes out of bos and every route other than San Juan out of Washington national. Jfk is slowly getting rid of all e90s since they are getting upgauging.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:17 pm

ScottB wrote:
MartijnNL wrote:
Personally I am very happy that the E190's will stay a little bit longer. It gives me more time to spot them. I suppose New York JFK is a good place to log those aircraft. So are Boston and Washington National I believe. Do anyone of you know other airports where a large part of the fleet can be seeing during a day?


BOS is probably your best bet for seeing B6 E190s. They tend to be used on the thinner business-oriented routes on which an A320 would be far too many seats.

MartijnNL wrote:
Why are the E190's leaving anyway? Aren't they great machines?


They're not great machines. B6 has been unhappy with reliability and high maintenance costs. Moreover, the incoming A220 will give them ~30-40% more seats for the same trip cost as the e190, if not less.

The wingspar grounded E-190s this summer. Here is a thread.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1403321

5 years ago JetBlue had to take a $20 million charge just to return the CF-34-10. Sorry, the phone isn't letting me add multiple links today...

It isn't just fuel burn, it is the fact that the plane/engine combination is as you note is costly.

The E-190 is a good machine. It isn't at A320 or 737 dispatch reliability. It isn't bad, but is is just OK.

I suspect this is a reason the E2 is struggling for sales.

Note:. The E-175 is a great plane. But that is the CF-34-8. The CF-34-10 is a problem child; it is a different engine that was developed on the cheap.

Now think how the MC-21 took the CF-34-10 and starved it of cooling.. oops.

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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:36 pm

lightsaber wrote:
The E-190 is a good machine. It isn't at A320 or 737 dispatch reliability. It isn't bad, but is is just OK.

I suspect this is a reason the E2 is struggling for sales.


In the end, with a fair number of used A32X and 737NG on the resale/leasing market, being a "good machine" probably isn't going to be good enough. Operators are going to expect reliability comparable to what the dominant products offer or extremely attractive commercial terms to make up for perceived deficiencies. Plus the A220 is out there with Airbus backing it, and that's going to be very tough competition.
 
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:46 pm

Obzerva wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
How about some of the Australian operators on vintage 100-120seaters? There a dozens of Fokker 100s, Avro RJs and Boeing 717 flying in Australia (although my impression is that those operatirs are happy to keep them flying for the foreseeable future).


Not sure on this, they would need to be going VERY cheap.

When VA got rid of theirs out of mainline no one locally in Australia seemed to express an interest.
Even VA’s own regional fleet will need replacing at some stage, but I’m thinking the lease costs on the Embraers was too prohibitive for then to be retained, even for the Western Australia fleet.


I think there was one interest, Jetgo before they went under. I think they expressed interest at one time for one of the ex-VA E190s for their proposed international service to Singapore but then changed their mind for an E175. I think, or maybe that was just rumor/chatter that I heard.
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:22 am

"What IF"....

In a couple years the aviation and economical environment is such that B6 decides keeping a extra 60 E190s around is not a bad thing?

The new 220s can do their thing, and the old E190s can be the 717's and MD 80s of the jetblue fleet consigned to shuttle service in the North East, and maybe Caribbean and intra-west cost short hops.
 
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:41 am

CobaltScar wrote:
"What IF"....

In a couple years the aviation and economical environment is such that B6 decides keeping a extra 60 E190s around is not a bad thing?

The new 220s can do their thing, and the old E190s can be the 717's and MD 80s of the jetblue fleet consigned to shuttle service in the North East, and maybe Caribbean and intra-west cost short hops.


You'd need a fairly low cost of fuel environment, and a need by B6 for quite a bit of capacity growth into smaller markets. A plan to hire an extra 750 or so pilots - instead or training E90 pilots to fly A220s. It's all a very low probability scenario to me.
 
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:58 am

I should have read more of my own link instead of estimating cycles:

Spacepope wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
How long were N216JB and N236JB down?

Late edit:
What were the hours/cycles?

For 216 it was in a heavy check in February and had around 33000 hours and 21000 cycles.


So the wingspar issues happen at about 15years by hours... About 59% more use or 49,000FH and just over 30,000FC at lease return. .

For the owned, it seems to be an attempt to sell prior to the wing spar inspection/repair. As in 1 year before! Caveat emptor.
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eamondzhang
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:01 am

Obzerva wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
How about some of the Australian operators on vintage 100-120seaters? There a dozens of Fokker 100s, Avro RJs and Boeing 717 flying in Australia (although my impression is that those operatirs are happy to keep them flying for the foreseeable future).


Not sure on this, they would need to be going VERY cheap.

When VA got rid of theirs out of mainline no one locally in Australia seemed to express an interest.
Even VA’s own regional fleet will need replacing at some stage, but I’m thinking the lease costs on the Embraers was too prohibitive for then to be retained, even for the Western Australia fleet.

And E190 has to have good performance in extreme temperatures which IIRC it doesn't.

When VA ridded themselves of the E190 fleet Cobham also removed their only E190 in the fleet. I honestly don't think we'll see E190 in Australia and especially not replacing 717 - try throwing E190 into the mining charter airports.

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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:09 am

ScottB wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Per airfleets.net (production summary), 692 of 754 (190&195) are still flying or 92%. For the right price, E-jets find homes.


Eh, that's pretty terrible for a type that only entered service 13 years ago. By comparison, the NG 737 entered service almost 21 years ago and 96% of those are still flying according to the same source. E170/175 are also up at 96% with a nearly identical production number.

Sancho99504 wrote:
I wonder if UA could skirt scope clauses with these 60 frames and use them on high yield thin routes?


They wouldn't really be able to "skirt scope clauses" since these aircraft would have to be operated as mainline, not by a regional outsourcer. And I can't really see United management being dumb enough to take on planes that B6 is dumping essentially because they're relatively inefficient hangar queens.

Since UA scope requires them to add an entirely new aircraft to the fleet in order to grow large regional jets, I was curious if they could operate them to do just that.

Why does everyone think when you mention scope clause, it's about trying to dly an aircraft that is above scope? I only mentioned one regional airline and that was to make a point about the Embraer 145 and Embraer 175, not anything about a major operating a mainline aircraft.
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Sancho99504
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:18 am

DiamondFlyer wrote:
Sancho99504 wrote:
I believe AA is only getting rid of their's is because they only have a tiny fleet of them in the grand scheme of things and didn't like the acquisition cost of adding more to the fleet, especially since US dumped a bunch because they wanted to shrink and due to CBAs couldn't shed 737 or A320 below a certain amount.


DL is getting A220s now, so they're out.... had B6 gotten rid of these 5-6 years ago, they may have ended up at DL.

I wonder if UA could skirt scope clauses with these 60 frames and use them on high yield thin routes?

G4 business model requires high volume, low cost aircraft... I'm actually surprised they didn't add A321s instead A319s to go with the A320s.

NK could use a 110 seater to open up sub 1,200 mile routes in the midwest, but I don't know if they'd buy used.

F9 did not do well with E90 the first time around, might have been Broan Bedford's fault, sonce he basically bought F9 and YX to put ER4s and E75s at until a major needed capacity. Maybe a 110 seater will work for sub 1,000 mile routes on the coasts(DEN, LAS, TNT)


The only way that AA/UA/DL end up with them is at mainline, fullstop. They're much too heavy to be flown at a regional (well, other than an AS regional). That said, I wouldn't expect them to stay in the US at all.

Nowhere in there did I say anything about a regional operator operating them on behalf of any major airline.

I mentioned AA because they're getting rid of a very small fleet type in a nearly 1,000 aircraft fleet. US had 30 at one point with intentions to grow, but ran into some trouble and decided to shrink the fleet. Since CBA with pilots dictated how many 737s, 757s, A32Xs, they didn't have a floor on the E90, so they ditched some. They need a 100 seater that's not an A319. So, since they don't have any 100 seaters on order, I was wondering out loud if they'd buy used, especially since they'll probably be dirt cheap.

As for UA, they could acquire them for the purpose of raising the cap on large RJs since it would be a new type and cheap to acquire.

And I said DL doesn't have a need for them since they have A220 on order.
kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out-USMC

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