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luv2cattlecall
Posts: 827
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:44 am

lightsaber wrote:
ScottB wrote:
MartijnNL wrote:
Personally I am very happy that the E190's will stay a little bit longer. It gives me more time to spot them. I suppose New York JFK is a good place to log those aircraft. So are Boston and Washington National I believe. Do anyone of you know other airports where a large part of the fleet can be seeing during a day?


BOS is probably your best bet for seeing B6 E190s. They tend to be used on the thinner business-oriented routes on which an A320 would be far too many seats.

MartijnNL wrote:
Why are the E190's leaving anyway? Aren't they great machines?


They're not great machines. B6 has been unhappy with reliability and high maintenance costs. Moreover, the incoming A220 will give them ~30-40% more seats for the same trip cost as the e190, if not less.

The wingspar grounded E-190s this summer. Here is a thread.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1403321

5 years ago JetBlue had to take a $20 million charge just to return the CF-34-10. Sorry, the phone isn't letting me add multiple links today...

It isn't just fuel burn, it is the fact that the plane/engine combination is as you note is costly.

The E-190 is a good machine. It isn't at A320 or 737 dispatch reliability. It isn't bad, but is is just OK.

I suspect this is a reason the E2 is struggling for sales.

Note:. The E-175 is a great plane. But that is the CF-34-8. The CF-34-10 is a problem child; it is a different engine that was developed on the cheap.

Now think how the MC-21 took the CF-34-10 and starved it of cooling.. oops.

Lightsaber



Thanks for explaining about the engines - I always wondered why the E175 had a much better reputation than the 190.

Is there a particular reason the 190 is known as having really bad software issues too? I would have assumed it would be quite similar to what's on the 170.
 
INFINITI329
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:44 am

CobaltScar wrote:
"What IF"....

In a couple years the aviation and economical environment is such that B6 decides keeping a extra 60 E190s around is not a bad thing?

The new 220s can do their thing, and the old E190s can be the 717's and MD 80s of the jetblue fleet consigned to shuttle service in the North East, and maybe Caribbean and intra-west cost short hops.


.... and have three different aircraft groups long term? No, that would cripple Jetblue. Noone knows what further mx headaches the E190 will bring.
 
MartijnNL
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:35 am

Thank you ScottB, Spacepope and tphuang for answering my questions! Much appreciated!
 
mjgbtv
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:10 pm

INFINITI329 wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
"What IF"....

In a couple years the aviation and economical environment is such that B6 decides keeping a extra 60 E190s around is not a bad thing?

The new 220s can do their thing, and the old E190s can be the 717's and MD 80s of the jetblue fleet consigned to shuttle service in the North East, and maybe Caribbean and intra-west cost short hops.


.... and have three different aircraft groups long term? No, that would cripple Jetblue. Noone knows what further mx headaches the E190 will bring.



The last E190s are not planned to leave until 2025. If they think there is a case for a ~100 seat aircraft at that point they could get some A220-100s.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:54 pm

A trip down memory lane, Jeblue laments E-190 costs from 2013!:
http://aviationweek.com/commercial-avia ... -190-costs
Barger also expressed unhappiness with the Brazilian aircraft’s General Electric CF34 engines. “We’re not pleased with what we’re seeing on the Embraer [with] the GE motor,” he said.
The engine is working better, but hasn't meet overhaul promises with fuel burn promises. (No link, so I guess you have to take as my opinion.)

Barger says the airline has significantly driven down maintenance costs, but not enough. “We’re seeing our later 40 [190s] performing better than our first 20,”


To be fair, I should point out the E2-190 is doing really well in service. But we're talking about a 2nd hand market for JetBlue's E-190s.



luv2cattlecall wrote:
Thanks for explaining about the engines - I always wondered why the E175 had a much better reputation than the 190.

Is there a particular reason the 190 is known as having really bad software issues too? I would have assumed it would be quite similar to what's on the 170.

For some reason the E-190/195 will occasionally hang up and require a 20 minute reboot. The CF34-10 has a much more sophisticated FADAC, so the engine software must be different. I do not know if the avionics are different.

I do know AC had a bizarre avionics failure on the E-190 due to a coffee spill (sorry, if you knew how much coffee I drink, you would understand why this amuses me):
http://aviationweek.com/commercial-avia ... cs-failure

I do know for the E2, Embraer took back the avionics as Honeywell has not been a great avionics partner.

mjgbtv wrote:
The last E190s are not planned to leave until 2025. If they think there is a case for a ~100 seat aircraft at that point they could get some A220-100s.

Yep. I fully expect JetBlue to order the A220-100 in some numbers. Heck, I expect a top off order (exercise options?).

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
FatCat
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:29 pm

I think some european airline will make an offer. E-Jets 190/195 are pretty common here. BA, AZ, LH (Regional and EN), TP...
Aeroplane flies high
Turns left, looks right
 
Obzerva
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Thu Nov 08, 2018 2:44 pm

eamondzhang wrote:
Obzerva wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
How about some of the Australian operators on vintage 100-120seaters? There a dozens of Fokker 100s, Avro RJs and Boeing 717 flying in Australia (although my impression is that those operatirs are happy to keep them flying for the foreseeable future).


Not sure on this, they would need to be going VERY cheap.

When VA got rid of theirs out of mainline no one locally in Australia seemed to express an interest.
Even VA’s own regional fleet will need replacing at some stage, but I’m thinking the lease costs on the Embraers was too prohibitive for then to be retained, even for the Western Australia fleet.

And E190 has to have good performance in extreme temperatures which IIRC it doesn't.

When VA ridded themselves of the E190 fleet Cobham also removed their only E190 in the fleet. I honestly don't think we'll see E190 in Australia and especially not replacing 717 - try throwing E190 into the mining charter airports.

Michael


I think you’re right there. As comfortable as an aircraft as it is, I’ve heard similar.
It’s future use in desert locations could be in a more stationary, rather than operational role.

Noticed CZ are phasing them out too so can rule them out.

I can’t really see EN expanding their fleet significantly unless something dramatic happens to AZ.

LO, AY or TP could pick up a few handy spare frames.
 
FatCat
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Thu Nov 08, 2018 2:58 pm

Obzerva wrote:
I think you’re right there. As comfortable as an aircraft as it is, I’ve heard similar.
It’s future use in desert locations could be in a more stationary, rather than operational role.

Noticed CZ are phasing them out too so can rule them out.

I can’t really see EN expanding their fleet significantly unless something dramatic happens to AZ.

LO, AY or TP could pick up a few handy spare frames.

In fact, LHRegional is transfering all its E190/195 to EN, to boost MUC and FRA hubbing from Italy.
I do fly a lot, for business, with EN from FLR to MUC (to connect with LH's longhaul) and FRA (as final destination, as we have a subsidiary in the Frankfurt area).
EN lacks of connections to south Italy's airports, so a further expansion can be expected
Aeroplane flies high
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346fetish
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:16 pm

No one seems to be able to make the E190 work in North America. See these things go to Europe/Africa.
"BA have got waterfalls in their head office. The only time we have waterfalls in the Ryanair office is when the toilet leaks."
 
Flighty
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:40 pm

Sancho99504 wrote:
DiamondFlyer wrote:
Sancho99504 wrote:
I believe AA is only getting rid of their's is because they only have a tiny fleet of them in the grand scheme of things and didn't like the acquisition cost of adding more to the fleet, especially since US dumped a bunch because they wanted to shrink and due to CBAs couldn't shed 737 or A320 below a certain amount.


DL is getting A220s now, so they're out.... had B6 gotten rid of these 5-6 years ago, they may have ended up at DL.

I wonder if UA could skirt scope clauses with these 60 frames and use them on high yield thin routes?

G4 business model requires high volume, low cost aircraft... I'm actually surprised they didn't add A321s instead A319s to go with the A320s.

NK could use a 110 seater to open up sub 1,200 mile routes in the midwest, but I don't know if they'd buy used.

F9 did not do well with E90 the first time around, might have been Broan Bedford's fault, sonce he basically bought F9 and YX to put ER4s and E75s at until a major needed capacity. Maybe a 110 seater will work for sub 1,000 mile routes on the coasts(DEN, LAS, TNT)


The only way that AA/UA/DL end up with them is at mainline, fullstop. They're much too heavy to be flown at a regional (well, other than an AS regional). That said, I wouldn't expect them to stay in the US at all.

Nowhere in there did I say anything about a regional operator operating them on behalf of any major airline.

I mentioned AA because they're getting rid of a very small fleet type in a nearly 1,000 aircraft fleet. US had 30 at one point with intentions to grow, but ran into some trouble and decided to shrink the fleet. Since CBA with pilots dictated how many 737s, 757s, A32Xs, they didn't have a floor on the E90, so they ditched some. They need a 100 seater that's not an A319. So, since they don't have any 100 seaters on order, I was wondering out loud if they'd buy used, especially since they'll probably be dirt cheap.

As for UA, they could acquire them for the purpose of raising the cap on large RJs since it would be a new type and cheap to acquire.

And I said DL doesn't have a need for them since they have A220 on order.


To think of AA is a good thought exercise. It probably depends on labor rates. This is similar to the Delta MD-90 situation. DL was an OEM customer of the M90 type with a new build fleet and maintenance regime. AA, via US, is a full OEM E-190 new build customer with all the skills built up. If they can get a fleet of them dirt cheap, it may change the equation for them. They may find it interesting.
 
ScottB
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:29 pm

Flighty wrote:
This is similar to the Delta MD-90 situation. DL was an OEM customer of the M90 type with a new build fleet and maintenance regime. AA, via US, is a full OEM E-190 new build customer with all the skills built up. If they can get a fleet of them dirt cheap, it may change the equation for them. They may find it interesting.


Well, it is similar and it isn't. The MD-90s offered economics which were competitive with new-build aircraft (remember, this pre-dates the neo/MAX by a few years) from Airbus & Boeing at scrapyard prices for DL. And after close to 20 years of working out the bugs in their own fleet, DL had gotten the reliability of the MD-90s up to a level comparable with their 737 and A32X fleets.

In the case of the E190, the aircraft came over from LUS so they don't fit all that well in the larger AA maintenance organization, and the new build aircraft (E190-E2 & A220) are quite a bit more efficient. Worse yet, the launch operator has had maintenance problems with the aircraft even though they should be experts with a large fleet of 60.

Also, the MD-90 with ~160 seats offers more compelling economics at a mainline operator than an E190 with 100.
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:41 pm

Obzerva wrote:
Noticed CZ are phasing them out too so can rule them out.

Indeed CZ is phasing them out claiming their operational costs (from a $ value perspective) are very similar to a 737-800 but offering far less seats (VA also made similar comments IIRC when they phased 190s out).

I've also heard about EN's getting more E190 but it's more likely from internal LH source than any additional frames.

Michael
 
Sancho99504
Posts: 715
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:15 am

ScottB wrote:
Flighty wrote:
This is similar to the Delta MD-90 situation. DL was an OEM customer of the M90 type with a new build fleet and maintenance regime. AA, via US, is a full OEM E-190 new build customer with all the skills built up. If they can get a fleet of them dirt cheap, it may change the equation for them. They may find it interesting.


Well, it is similar and it isn't. The MD-90s offered economics which were competitive with new-build aircraft (remember, this pre-dates the neo/MAX by a few years) from Airbus & Boeing at scrapyard prices for DL. And after close to 20 years of working out the bugs in their own fleet, DL had gotten the reliability of the MD-90s up to a level comparable with their 737 and A32X fleets.

In the case of the E190, the aircraft came over from LUS so they don't fit all that well in the larger AA maintenance organization, and the new build aircraft (E190-E2 & A220) are quite a bit more efficient. Worse yet, the launch operator has had maintenance problems with the aircraft even though they should be experts with a large fleet of 60.

Also, the MD-90 with ~160 seats offers more compelling economics at a mainline operator than an E190 with 100.

It makes me wonder about the vendors that B6 uses for maintenance. They spend about $800 million a year on maintenance, with about $650 million of that, spent on 3rd party vendors. I know there are some very good 3rd party MROs out there, but they don't have the problems with their A320s, which appear to go to a different vendor for MRO. I know AC had some serious teething issues with theirs, but seem to have moved past that into a very respectable dispatch reliability. What gives? Yes, I know AC is ditching them, but it was in an effort to streamline their fleet and save money.


I think AA could integrate the E90 into their maintenance program rather easily in TUL, especially since the S80 is almost history. It doesn't mean that they should because they could. I just looked at it from a standpoint of:
1) they need a 100 seat aircraft
2) these 60 aircraft are going to be sold to someone at or close to scrapyard prices
3) AA is clamping down on capital expenditures
4) they have a decent dispatch reliability and maintenance program in place
5) they operate a far heavier, less efficient aircraft on many of the routes that these aircraft should be used on
6) they would do well operating from LAX/PHX to a lot of cities west of the Mississippi

That's not to say they'd be successful. Hell, Embraer could have just done a shit job on quality oversight of these particular frames.
kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out-USMC
 
EBT
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:42 am

I imagine that a few will end up at the scrappers, but not because there is much inherently wrong with the E-Jets E1 series. Rather, Embraer missed a trick on not having a spares pool programme, so there are some smart cookies that are creating their own from torn down jets where the major parts still have green time on them. The engines are also pretty valuable too.

Once the values get closer to the $4 million per airframe level, then some of the Australian charter operators may be interested in them as potential replacements for Fokker 100s. Having said that, the biggest of those - Alliance Airlines - has got a swag of spares, and Rolls-Royce continue to support the Tay engine, so there isn't a major push for them to change types in the short-term. But it will be the Tay engines that will kill off the Fokkers, and when that happens those operators will be in the market for any 100 seater that is cheap. Tangential, but I have heard the A318 mentioned in those discussions too, although they won't be that cheap for a while.
 
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zkojq
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Fri Nov 09, 2018 12:28 pm

Given how long it took for Nordic Aviation Capital to place Virgin Australia's E190s (which were in fairly good condition), the future of Jetblue's ones can't be too rosy can it?

Sancho99504 wrote:
I believe AA is only getting rid of their's is because they only have a tiny fleet of them in the grand scheme of things and didn't like the acquisition cost of adding more to the fleet, especially since US dumped a bunch because they wanted to shrink and due to CBAs couldn't shed 737 or A320 below a certain amount.


Are AA's operated by mainline crews?
First to fly the 787-9
 
ScottB
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Re: Will anyone pickup the JetBlue E190s?

Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:43 pm

zkojq wrote:
Are AA's operated by mainline crews?


Yep, as required by scope.

EBT wrote:
when that happens those operators will be in the market for any 100 seater that is cheap. Tangential, but I have heard the A318 mentioned in those discussions too, although they won't be that cheap for a while.


By then there ought to be a fair number of 73Gs and A319s on the market at attractive prices as well. Maybe 717s once DL exits that fleet. HA certainly won't need 100 of those.

Sancho99504 wrote:
It makes me wonder about the vendors that B6 uses for maintenance.


AFAIK a fair bit gets done by Embraer in Nashville.

Sancho99504 wrote:
I think AA could integrate the E90 into their maintenance program rather easily in TUL


Er, why? AA doesn't operate any other Embraer product itself (the regional carriers do).

Sancho99504 wrote:
3) AA is clamping down on capital expenditures
4) they have a decent dispatch reliability and maintenance program in place
5) they operate a far heavier, less efficient aircraft on many of the routes that these aircraft should be used on


With a tight pilot market for the foreseeable future, AA is probably better off going with larger aircraft mainline and they'd have little problem finding secondhand A319s or 73Gs if need be. While those aircraft are heavier, they're most certainly not less efficient; trip costs are only marginally higher and the A319 basically gives them 30 more seats for free.

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