Tan Flyr wrote:
I love how all the "experts" on here think paying a $1MM a month for a new aircraft is somehow cheaper than flying an older paid for aircraft.
Generally agreed..an example of a million a month buys a lot of Jet-A..presuming crew and other costs are generally equal. The part where costs of delayed or cancelled flights, mis-connects, general customer satisfaction start to add up.
I'd take the comfort of the MD-80 (2 seat side) over the 738 any day..but I also want to leave and arrive on time. AA is smart to keep the remaining fleet mostly Texas or Oklahoma oriented. Easy to sub one in for an hour flight..keeping it simple towards the end. I'm hoping to catch one more MD80 early next year..just for posterity!
The break even to buy new versus a MD-80 is only about 6 hours of flying per day (on average). For replacing an A320CEO, about 8.5 hours of flying per day.
There is a reason G4 flies the A319s more than the MD-80s.
Notice how Allegiant's CASM ex-fuel dropped from 6.56 to 6.43. That is thanks to the A319/A320 replacing MD-80s.https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1022303745
Here is an old thread comparing fuel expenses:viewtopic.php?t=1355819
or 2374 kg/hr for A319 (not much more for A320) or 2420 for 73G vs. 3060 for the MD080.
Now let us look at today's fuel prices:https://ycharts.com/indicators/jet_fuel_spot_price
$1.559 today (in bulk).
So (3060-2374)*2.2/6.8*1.559=$346 per hour of fuel savings.
The A319 has much lower maintenance costs per flight hour than the MD-80s old school wait until there is a problem and then tear everything apart to find it.
Break even on fuel is $150,000/346=433 hours per month at today's jet-A pricing (Used A319 vs. MD-80). So on fuel alone... Yea, about that 14 hours/day. So it does take maintenance savings to pay.
But when we look in detail (see last post in following)viewtopic.php?t=743237For 12 months ending Mar 2004 for US based reporting airlines....from Eclat
Average Block Hour costs (ave seats):
MD80 - $2,725 (134)
A320 - $2,387 (147)
737-800/900 - $2,498 (153)
But this means retiring the MD-80 when it needs maintenance.
To replace a MD-80 with new ($350,000 per month)... Well buy a NEO and save 15% more fuel!.
The NEO saves $514/hour per my math. Or break even (before an even larger maintenance savings) at 680 hours/month or 22 hours per day... Oh wait.
Now we see why it isn't always wise to buy new. The heaviest utilization narrowbodies are 13 to 14 hours per day (some peak a little more, but we need to go over a year).
However, the MD-80 requires upgrades for the latest FAA rules. Those upgrades are not going to be cheap (over $1 million per aircraft).
Just to complete, Allegiant has found the A319's maintenance barely above half the MD-80 maintenance costs:https://www.airlinereporter.com/2012/07 ... -to-fleet/Allegiant is hoping to place the A319s on routes that are just marginally profitable for the MD-80 aircraft. The A319 is 25% cheaper per block hour with fuel and 40% lower on maintenance than the MD-80 aircraft. Also, the range of the A319 is greater with a 3,600 nm vs just 1400 nm, allowing Allegiant to look at longer route opportunities. At this time, the airline is not planning on increasing fleet utilization.
Well, Allegiant has since increases Airbus fleet utilization because the lower cost per seat allowed more city pairs to be profitable.
I'm not saying replace today. But there are reasons the A319s are going cheap (barely lower cost per flight than the A320, so airlines such as Easyjet are not extending leases). Thus leasing companies are having to discount heavily good use examples to find new homes for them. That more than anything is ending the MD-80 days.
Note: WN bid up prices on the 73G keeping it from being an obvious MD-80 replacement. I consider it equal. But Airbus had several A319 airlines have leases expire (Cebu Pacific and Easyjet are the main ones) that drove down A319 resale value to be quite the bargain.
So the MD-80s are doomed when big maintenance bills come due or when the new avionics are required. Cest la vie.
Winter is coming.