TWFlyGuy wrote:Sure...of course it can. The biggest driver is a point you made...KC growing, STL shrinking population wise. If I recall correctly, WN has also said the new terminal will drive them to create more connections over MCI. Depending on costs, etc., I could see that being a big traffic driver for MCI as well. My guess is that while STL has closed up a lot of the old terminal space from TW/AA, it's still more expensive to run overall vs. MCI. the cost of the new terminal will be a key to what the future holds for MCI.
Jshank83 wrote:I would also argue the better performing economy but I don't want to get into that on a a.net forum.
777PHX wrote:Jshank83 wrote:I would also argue the better performing economy but I don't want to get into that on a a.net forum.
STL has a significantly larger economy and KC's isn't growing significantly quicker than STL's is.
MCI isn't going to be surpassing STL anytime soon. Especially if WN continues to grow their little STL "hublet".
trexel94 wrote:I can't think of too many cities that SW could feasibly add out of STL at this stage beyond places like IND, ABQ and a few more seasonal leisure destinations. One of the reasons why SW has such a large presence in STL is to connect MCI passengers.
trexel94 wrote:20 years ago this would have been a laughable question to ponder back when STL had more than double the amount of traffic and was a hub for TWA/AA compared to Kansas City but today with TWA in the history books and AA having left to focus on ORD and DFW, STL barely has more than 2 million more passengers than MCI and growth seems to be limited to occasional SW routes, the odd-ball F9 flight and at some point the long coveted BA service. Its unlikely an airline will make STL a hub again. Meanwhile, MCI is expected to almost clear 12 million passengers in 2018 and has clocked in roughly 4 percent consistent growth.
Today, the Kansas City metro is growing faster in population than the St Louis region with a better performing economy to boot. In addition, MCI has the advantage of a large catchment region drawing passengers from places such as Omaha, Des Moines and Wichita and a new upcoming terminal with expanded capacity. In addition, SW has taken great interest in the project and has been one of the project's biggest advocates so I anticipate SW will reinstate old routes that were lost to STL and/or introduce new ones. According to the airport's construction website the goal is to bring non-stop service to about 75 cities including more European service which is roughly what PDX currently has although only time will tell if that goal is achieved.
There was a time when STL served over 30 million passengers while MCI served about 11 million. Today, STL served about 14.6 million while MCI served almost 12 million. The gap has never been closer and if trends continue could MCI match or even surpass STL at some point in the future?
pmanni1 wrote:STL metro (2.8 mil) has 700,000 more people than KC metro (2.1mil). STL has much larger business O&D and has 10 Fortune 500 headquarters while KC has just one. I cannot see any reason - business or leisure that would cause KC to go gangbusters and have millions more use it's airport.
Jshank83 wrote:TWFlyGuy wrote:Sure...of course it can. The biggest driver is a point you made...KC growing, STL shrinking population wise. If I recall correctly, WN has also said the new terminal will drive them to create more connections over MCI. Depending on costs, etc., I could see that being a big traffic driver for MCI as well. My guess is that while STL has closed up a lot of the old terminal space from TW/AA, it's still more expensive to run overall vs. MCI. the cost of the new terminal will be a key to what the future holds for MCI.
STL isn't shrinking as a metro area, just isn't growing all that quickly.
Currently, STL is still growing faster than MCI passenger wise. MCI up 3.06% (295,222 passengers) YTD. STL is up 6% (664,229 passengers).
End of year if they stay at the same average growth for the year. MCI would be at 11.855 mil and STL would be at 15.614 mil. Basically a 4 mil difference or 32% bigger.
So for at least the next 4-5 years STL will probably continue to grow faster until MCI's new terminal opens up. 5 years from now who knows what the landscape will look like but it still will be awhile before MCI gets all that close with that kind of gap.
I think MCI will def pick up some slack when the new airport opens but it will take a long time to close the gap much. It isn't like airlines are going to throw a ton of new capacity all at once on the airport. WN is investing in STL also, so it isn't like they are just sitting still there. They are paying for most of the new addition going on their terminal at STL that includes a new baggage input airside and new baggage carousels landslide. As well as opening new gates (now up to 17).
Once the new terminal opens I would assume the fees at MCI will be higher to STL, as all that debt goes on the books.
I would also argue the better performing economy but I don't want to get into that on a a.net forum.
This was my source which had showed a negative for St Louis previously:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_m ... ical_areas
With that said, growth of 0.7% for St Louis vs. 5.95% for KC. There's a good chance KC surpasses St Louis in the not too distant future.
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