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seansasLCY
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Flybe up for sale

Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:10 pm

According to Sky News, Flybe has put itself up for sale and is looking for a buyer or merger.

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-and-f ... e-11553619

I wonder if Stobart will succeed this time or another group makes a move?
 
ahj2000
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:56 pm

I could see both IAG and LHGroup going for BE, to be honest.
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Cunard
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:10 pm

I can see IAG making a move and possibly merging Flybe into their BACF operation or the Stobart group returning to the table now that Flybe is worth only £25 million but as far as the LH Group is concerned I don't see that happening especially as Brexit is getting even closer and foreign ownership might be an issue.
94 Countries, 327 Destinations Worldwide, 32 Airlines, 29 Aircraft Types, 182 Airports, 335 Flights.
 
cornishsimon
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:14 pm

Iag could well be interested simply for the maintenance facility at EXT which would allow them to send the CityFlyer E-Jets in-house so to speak to Exeter rather than all over Europe to outside contractors.

Certain routes could be absorbed into BA/EI, others could run on their own, others could cease.

It’s a bad time for UK aviation I’d BE disappear


cs
 
LHRFlyer
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:15 pm

I'm afraid I don't see IAG being interested. The brand simply isn't strong enough and there's nothing that BACF could not do already.
 
findingnema
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:17 pm

IAG has had two previous opportunities in the last decade or so to run UK regional operations - they sold their merged regional entities that didn’t touch London to Flybe in 2007 and then bought two regional airlines (BMI Regional- and bmibaby) in 2012 which they subsequently disposed of. With that in mind, even with a £25m price tag, I can’t see what IAG would get out of bringing Flybe back into the fold unless they seriously thought that there was turnaround potential. Even then, flybe’s slot portfolio at LCY, remedy flights into LHR and maybe even at Gatwick might need to be looked into by the competition authorities. Whatever is best for the consumer and for the people at Flybe, but I don’t think that this would be IAG.
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ZuluTime
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:35 pm

Flybe have already done the rounds of IAG, Lufthansa, AF/KL and others in the last six months. None are interested. The announcement is trying to reach a wider audience beyond the obvious, and is only being made after efforts to sort this behind closed doors have proven unsuccessful.
 
mullac30
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:22 am

Perhaps AIL could snap them up?
 
aamd11
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:35 am

findingnema wrote:
IAG has had two previous opportunities in the last decade or so to run UK regional operations - they sold their merged regional entities that didn’t touch London to Flybe in 2007 and then bought two regional airlines (BMI Regional- and bmibaby) in 2012 which they subsequently disposed of. With that in mind, even with a £25m price tag, I can’t see what IAG would get out of bringing Flybe back into the fold unless they seriously thought that there was turnaround potential. Even then, flybe’s slot portfolio at LCY, remedy flights into LHR and maybe even at Gatwick might need to be looked into by the competition authorities. Whatever is best for the consumer and for the people at Flybe, but I don’t think that this would be IAG.

LHR slots would have to be made available again for the same markets, I'm sure. BE haven't held them long enough to have vested yet, if I'm not mistaken, so the original remedy rules would kick back in. Although with VS having already given it a shot and failed, I'm not sure who else there is to give it a go if BA does end up getting them back - bmi might make some sense, but that's probably unlikely.

As for LGW, I think they just have the NQY route, which is a PSO service if I'm not mistaken. Doubt there's much fuss about their tiny LGW operation.

I personally don't see IAG going in for BE. There's not much of value in the way of slots, the fleet doesn't really fit anything that IAG already has - don't think the EMB jets are much use to them, as I don't believe the 175/195 can be used at LCY. If the EMB were attractive for additional regional flying by BACF, the 195s would need to be reconfigured for scope anyway, and you would be taking on a lot of operation for the sake of a few aircraft. If metal was desired, I'm sure BE would listen to offers. As was mentioned already, BE today was built partly by what BA sold them over a decade ago. And since then, BA have flogged another regional operation that came into their possession.
 
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EGTESkyGod
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:48 am

The irony of it all. Buying out BAConnect in 2006, and new looking for a possible merger and people talking about BA. All that money on rebranding in the last couple of years, shame to see it go to waste. I just hope some of the former colleagues and all of the friends I made in my time at EXT can move on to something bigger, better or even just keep their heads up. Unfortunately, the inside word has been that this has been a matter of time in coming.
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Flyingdevil737
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:16 am

I’m hoping that the Eddie Stobart group will buy them (being the giant group that it is), so then they can FINALLY have jets.

I reckon that IAG will snap them up.
In the century-old war between very fast-moving aircraft and the ground, the ground has yet to lose.
 
Cunard
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:55 am

Flyingdevil737 wrote:
I’m hoping that the Eddie Stobart group will buy them (being the giant group that it is), so then they can FINALLY have jets.

I reckon that IAG will snap them up.


You do realise that Stobart Air already have jets, they recently added two Embraer ERJ 190 aircraft which are being leased to BACF for two years and will be based at LCY.

The Embraer ERJ 190s the airline has previously used out of SEN are or have been returned to Flybe.

EI-GHK and EI-GHL are the registrations of the two aircraft so going by that I'm sure that your agree that Stobart do FINALLY have jets albeit flying on behalf of BACF.
94 Countries, 327 Destinations Worldwide, 32 Airlines, 29 Aircraft Types, 182 Airports, 335 Flights.
 
asctty
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 5:27 am

What has happened to BE and who would either buy them out or take over their extensive regional routes in the UK? Their business model must be pretty poor as these routes are generally busy with PAX.
 
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Channex757
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:15 am

Sector could be a possibility. As a purely wild guess, BE could be folded into either Loganair or BMI Regional. Again though what does BE bring to the party that some other less indebted carrier could not quickly replicate?

IAG would end up in front of the CMA and CAA. Both would likely say no to them taking over BE without a lot of remedy work. Besides which, IAG isn't interested in hubbing outside the M25 any more.
 
Andy33
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:26 am

Channex757 wrote:
Sector could be a possibility. As a purely wild guess, BE could be folded into either Loganair or BMI Regional. Again though what does BE bring to the party that some other less indebted carrier could not quickly replicate?

IAG would end up in front of the CMA and CAA. Both would likely say no to them taking over BE without a lot of remedy work. Besides which, IAG isn't interested in hubbing outside the M25 any more.


I agree with almost everything you said - just one tiny point - IAG most definitely do hub at London Gatwick, and unless they've moved it in the last week, Gatwick is outside the M25, though not by a huge mileage.
 
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Channex757
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:55 am

Andy33 wrote:
Channex757 wrote:
Sector could be a possibility. As a purely wild guess, BE could be folded into either Loganair or BMI Regional. Again though what does BE bring to the party that some other less indebted carrier could not quickly replicate?

IAG would end up in front of the CMA and CAA. Both would likely say no to them taking over BE without a lot of remedy work. Besides which, IAG isn't interested in hubbing outside the M25 any more.


I agree with almost everything you said - just one tiny point - IAG most definitely do hub at London Gatwick, and unless they've moved it in the last week, Gatwick is outside the M25, though not by a huge mileage.

I think the lack of any serious expansion and downsizing themselves out of the North terminal instead speaks for itself. BA at LGW is the Cinderella operation rather than a serious hub these days.

On the subject of hubbing, it's BHX that could potentially suffer the most. MAN has just hit (today!) 28m passengers per annum, so BE might not impact much there. They do however have a decent operation out of BHX that would be sorely missed.

I'd like to see Loganair's brand covering the country again. It's a trusted operation and used to have a substantial route network alongside Manx. Question is, have Sector got the appetite and resources to bid?
 
jules48
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:25 am

Who wants to fly on Dash 8,s that are always breaking down.Customers are looking for alternative carriers but they operate some really strange routes which obviously do not make any money.
 
Scottiedog
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:45 am

Although Manchester has just reached the 28m they could potentially lose over 1m passengers if flybe ceased operations. Of course a lot of their European flights from Manchester could be replaced by other carriers, however the domestic flights operate not just as point to point, but uplift a reasonable number of interline passengers.
 
seansasLCY
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:00 am

Channex757 wrote:
Sector could be a possibility. As a purely wild guess, BE could be folded into either Loganair or BMI Regional. Again though what does BE bring to the party that some other less indebted carrier could not quickly replicate?

IAG would end up in front of the CMA and CAA. Both would likely say no to them taking over BE without a lot of remedy work. Besides which, IAG isn't interested in hubbing outside the M25 any more.


Would they though? There is very little overlap between BA/IAG routes and BE. If BA and BMI could merge I see no reason why IAG couldn't buy BE. They only compete on LHR-EDI/ABZ and LCY-DUS and EDI.

The real question is whether IAG see any value in doing so. I doubt it.
 
konkret
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:07 am

Wouldn’t BE be more valuable for AF/KLM to feed AMS and CDG from UK regional airports?
 
21pilots
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:23 am

KLM has a rich history with feed being provided from the UK: e.g. Air UK/KLM UK in the '80's and '90's. Acquiring Flybe would fit perfectly into that model.
 
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Channex757
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:36 am

Scottiedog wrote:
Although Manchester has just reached the 28m they could potentially lose over 1m passengers if flybe ceased operations. Of course a lot of their European flights from Manchester could be replaced by other carriers, however the domestic flights operate not just as point to point, but uplift a reasonable number of interline passengers.

The picture I was trying to draw was that whereas a loss of BE would dent MAN, at BHX it would be a substantial gouge. Brum losing FlyBE wouldn't be fatal to their business but it would definitely cause them issues with a loss of turnover.

Re the point about the CAA and CMA, both would definitely want to give IAG a squeeze. They don't like monopolies and there would definitely be hearings and delays if IAG wanted to buy BE out. Routes would need examining and those remedy slots would be a point of contention.

IAG also might not want to even consider buying another UK airline until Brexit is decided and the final shape of aviation policy is settled.
 
seansasLCY
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:47 am

Channex757 wrote:

Re the point about the CAA and CMA, both would definitely want to give IAG a squeeze. They don't like monopolies and there would definitely be hearings and delays if IAG wanted to buy BE out. Routes would need examining and those remedy slots would be a point of contention.

IAG also might not want to even consider buying another UK airline until Brexit is decided and the final shape of aviation policy is settled.


The CAA and CMA can want all they like but the fundamental facts remain that it wouldn't be a monopoly because there are already very few routes on which the airlines compete. There is more overlap between Aer Lingus and BA and that went through. Lufthansa own the main airline in Belgium, Germany, Switzerland and Austria and have gone through creating much bigger monopolies than BE and BA would ever create. Plus if the choice is between Flybe surviving by being bought by IAG or collapsing then the Government will make it work. They are not going to want to leave the regions without a link.
 
eicvd
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:57 am

konkret wrote:
Wouldn’t BE be more valuable for AF/KLM to feed AMS and CDG from UK regional airports?

But KLM do that perfectly at the moment anyway
COYBIB
 
Staralexi
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:04 am

I cannot see any reason why any other airline group would want to buy Flybe. It operates at the ultra-short haul end of the market and that means it has a large proportion of airport costs per flying hour. It is that cost problem that has always made this the graveyared end of the industry. Flybe has also put itself in direct competition with a powerful organisation(BA) in respect of many of its roots, including all those out of LCY and LHR. The only slots it has that have a hard cash value are those at LHR but this cash can only be realised if they operate those routes to the end of the remedy period. Whoever buys them will be taking on a massive headache. If it is bought it it will surely become a much smaller company.
 
BHXLOVER
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:20 am

seansasLCY wrote:
Channex757 wrote:

Re the point about the CAA and CMA, both would definitely want to give IAG a squeeze. They don't like monopolies and there would definitely be hearings and delays if IAG wanted to buy BE out. Routes would need examining and those remedy slots would be a point of contention.

IAG also might not want to even consider buying another UK airline until Brexit is decided and the final shape of aviation policy is settled.


The CAA and CMA can want all they like but the fundamental facts remain that it wouldn't be a monopoly because there are already very few routes on which the airlines compete. There is more overlap between Aer Lingus and BA and that went through. Lufthansa own the main airline in Belgium, Germany, Switzerland and Austria and have gone through creating much bigger monopolies than BE and BA would ever create. Plus if the choice is between Flybe surviving by being bought by IAG or collapsing then the Government will make it work. They are not going to want to leave the regions without a link.


I agree that if anyone is interested and it becomes a choice between a monopoly and letting Flybe go bust, they would have a hard time opposing a takeover.

Flybe are vital to the regional airports and in particular their loss would be a huge blow to BHX. But can regional routes make money?
 
opticalilyushin
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:39 am

Channex757 wrote:
Scottiedog wrote:
Although Manchester has just reached the 28m they could potentially lose over 1m passengers if flybe ceased operations. Of course a lot of their European flights from Manchester could be replaced by other carriers, however the domestic flights operate not just as point to point, but uplift a reasonable number of interline passengers.

The picture I was trying to draw was that whereas a loss of BE would dent MAN, at BHX it would be a substantial gouge. Brum losing FlyBE wouldn't be fatal to their business but it would definitely cause them issues with a loss of turnover.

Re the point about the CAA and CMA, both would definitely want to give IAG a squeeze. They don't like monopolies and there would definitely be hearings and delays if IAG wanted to buy BE out. Routes would need examining and those remedy slots would be a point of contention.

IAG also might not want to even consider buying another UK airline until Brexit is decided and the final shape of aviation policy is settled.


BHX is a major Flybe hub, but there are many other airlines flying there. In the grander scheme of things the loss of Flybe would be more dangerous for it's major hubs in Belfast, Southampton, or Doncaster and Cardiff. Without them these airports could quickly turn into ghost towns
 
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Channex757
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:54 am

Staralexi wrote:
I cannot see any reason why any other airline group would want to buy Flybe. It operates at the ultra-short haul end of the market and that means it has a large proportion of airport costs per flying hour. It is that cost problem that has always made this the graveyared end of the industry. Flybe has also put itself in direct competition with a powerful organisation(BA) in respect of many of its roots, including all those out of LCY and LHR. The only slots it has that have a hard cash value are those at LHR but this cash can only be realised if they operate those routes to the end of the remedy period. Whoever buys them will be taking on a massive headache. If it is bought it it will surely become a much smaller company.

Good to see some mature debate on this subject....and I agree with all your points.

The next show-stopper is finance and leases. The DH8D fleet has some weird subleases involving Pinnacle, as well as backbreaker leases with high premiums on the Embraers. These were notoriously difficult to get financed and there is plenty of archived stuff in different locations on the story of the FlyBE ERJ deals. The 195s were parked at NQY as subleasing them was a non-starter and the leases couldn't be readily broken.

Who would want to take on this tangle of expensive financing and excess capacity? That's why the airline is going for a song. There's no value in the fleet and far too much cash going out the door on finance. Lessors would also not take kindly to large numbers of DH8D suddenly appearing on the market either and depressing secondhand values. This would explain why Stobart walked away too. Why damage their own credit ratings with deeply unattractive leases at premium rates?
 
yuomi
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:55 am

Quick Q RE: the PSO routes.
Since these are, I believe, overseen by the European Commission, do they stop being obligatory upon Brexit, or does their oversight just revert to Westminster?

Does anyone know what BE's load factors are network-wide and, particularly, on the domestic ultra-SH routes? I've gone out of my way to fly them in the past but, whenever i've had to, they've always seemed reasonably full.
 
David_itl
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:04 pm

Channex757 wrote:
Who would want to take on this tangle of expensive financing and excess capacity? That's why the airline is going for a song. There's no value in the fleet and far too much cash going out the door on finance. Lessors would also not take kindly to large numbers of DH8D suddenly appearing on the market either and depressing secondhand values. This would explain why Stobart walked away too. Why damage their own credit ratings with deeply unattractive leases at premium rates?


This is the summary of results:
https://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/flybe1/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=59&newsid=1207267

Forward sales in Q3 as at 12th November 2018 show a positive increase in sold seats:
· 6.0% reduction in seat capacity vs. prior year
· 63% of seats sold vs. 59% in the prior year
· 2.0% increase in passenger revenue per seat

Fleet wise: Reduced from 80 at 31st March to 78 on 30th September. 2 more £195s are going from the fleet as their lease expires. 5 DHC8 leases extended on reduced terms, Seems to me they are trying to get a grip on leasing costs.
 
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TOGA10
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:21 pm

eicvd wrote:
konkret wrote:
Wouldn’t BE be more valuable for AF/KLM to feed AMS and CDG from UK regional airports?

But KLM do that perfectly at the moment anyway

Just about to say the same. At the moment KL has 16 routes from the U.K. to AMS, and AF has 16 as well to CDG (according to their respective websites). Seems plenty!
I wanna go back upstairs!
 
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JannEejit
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:21 pm

So it would appear the most likely solution for Flybe would be to go belly up then ? I suppose that would allow the likes of Stobart and AIL (FlyBMI/Loganair) to cherry pick whatever UK regional routes that best augment their existing operations ? I believe an alliance of sorts between AIL and Stobart has been discussed before and I'd certainly love to be a fly on the wall of those respective board rooms today !
 
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Channex757
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:38 pm

JannEejit wrote:
So it would appear the most likely solution for Flybe would be to go belly up then ? I suppose that would allow the likes of Stobart and AIL (FlyBMI/Loganair) to cherry pick whatever UK regional routes that best augment their existing operations ? I believe an alliance of sorts between AIL and Stobart has been discussed before and I'd certainly love to be a fly on the wall of those respective board rooms today !

Administration might be a better bet. British law isn't as flexible as other nations (no formal Chapter 7 for instance) but cutting it down in to a manageable size and using whatever the Courts can offer to terminate leases might be an option. Prepack deals could be useful if there's a potential buyer for the viable business core.

Isn't the Brazilian Government involved here too? IIRC they would be on the hook as guarantors for some of the EMB leases.
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:44 pm

opticalilyushin wrote:
BHX is a major Flybe hub, but there are many other airlines flying there. In the grander scheme of things the loss of Flybe would be more dangerous for it's major hubs in Belfast, Southampton, or Doncaster and Cardiff. Without them these airports could quickly turn into ghost towns


The Isle of Man Government might be concerned if there's a reduction in Flybe services. They are the sole operator to MAN and BHX and operate the majority of flights to LPL and whenever I've used either Flybe or easyJet between LPL and IOM the flights have had decent loads. There are of course no guarantees that other airlines will step in to take over these routes or match Flybe's frequencies unless there are subsidies/PSO's involved. For example, easyJet's LPL-IOM flights are timed in such a way so that the aircraft does a return trip within the space of 2 hours before going on to do a longer sector and their schedule differs daily. Can they justify increasing frequencies and would it be a good use of an A319/A320 to do multiple 90 mile sectors per day, particularly outside peak periods such as the TT fortnight? That said, easyJet's prices are very competitive (and sometimes cheaper) as they have far greater economies of scale than Flybe, plus using a plane for an 180 mile round trip is probably preferable to sitting on the ground at LPL for 2 hours.

Don't rely on the seasonal fast craft ferry service between Liverpool and Douglas to be a permanent fixture in the future that could mop up the air traffic, as that point is open for discussion under the current negotiations for the Steam Packet's new agreement. I don't think the results have been made available yet, but a recent public consultation regarding future ferry services asked the question of whether people would prefer a seasonal fast craft service or a year-round conventional ferry service (at the moment, Liverpool has a fast craft service from late-March to-early November and conventional ferry outside of that period, albeit from Birkenhead). If the fast craft goes, it will become a lot slower to go by boat between the island and Liverpool. For reference, the fast craft service is 2h45m whereas a conventional ferry takes 4h-4h30m.

Whoever buys Flybe will be buying a route network that many other airlines won't touch but are vital for most of the markets they serve. This might be unpopular with the environmentalists, but I think a relaxation of APD rules may help certain routes if it means Flybe can charge more (but less overall than fares incorporating current APD levels) and make more money. That said, I suspect some of Flybe's issues are legacy which will need more time to overcome that goes beyond taxation and charging the maximum that the market will bear.
 
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Kindanew
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:05 pm

Sounds like a job for Easyjet surely?
 
Amiga500
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:24 pm

What could anyone who would buy them do differently? If the answer is nothing substantial, then why would anyone buy them?

They do fill a niche, but the niche is not sustaining.
 
bmibaby737
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:45 pm

Channex757 wrote:
The next show-stopper is finance and leases. The DH8D fleet has some weird subleases involving Pinnacle


It was Republic Airlines that they leased the Q400s from, however Republic rejected those aircraft in bankruptcy so Flybe now lease five of them directly from Nordic Aviation Capital and they purchased the others.
 
konkret
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:12 pm

TOGA10 wrote:
eicvd wrote:
konkret wrote:
Wouldn’t BE be more valuable for AF/KLM to feed AMS and CDG from UK regional airports?

But KLM do that perfectly at the moment anyway

Just about to say the same. At the moment KL has 16 routes from the U.K. to AMS, and AF has 16 as well to CDG (according to their respective websites). Seems plenty!


What are those 16 destinations that AF serves from CDG?
I am aware of 5 - LHR, BHX, MAN (to be transfered to Joon), EDI, ABZ.
What am I missing?
 
seansasLCY
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:23 pm

konkret wrote:
TOGA10 wrote:
eicvd wrote:
But KLM do that perfectly at the moment anyway

Just about to say the same. At the moment KL has 16 routes from the U.K. to AMS, and AF has 16 as well to CDG (according to their respective websites). Seems plenty!


What are those 16 destinations that AF serves from CDG?
I am aware of 5 - LHR, BHX, MAN (to be transfered to Joon), EDI, ABZ.
What am I missing?


I assume they are counting KLM codeshares.
 
Clydenairways
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:26 pm

21pilots wrote:
KLM has a rich history with feed being provided from the UK: e.g. Air UK/KLM UK in the '80's and '90's. Acquiring Flybe would fit perfectly into that model.


But KLM and Cityhopper is filling that role now. No need to buy another airline,
 
factsonly
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:13 pm

Clydenairways wrote:
21pilots wrote:
KLM has a rich history with feed being provided from the UK: e.g. Air UK/KLM UK in the '80's and '90's. Acquiring Flybe would fit perfectly into that model.


But KLM and Cityhopper is filling that role now. No need to buy another airline,


FlyBe has 19x daily slots at AMS at present.
KLM and other airlines will be fighting over the potential re-allocation of these precious BE slots at Schiphol Airport.
No-one is interested in operating DH8s on thin regional UK routes, when B777s, B787s and A350, A333s make significantly more money on valuable AMS slots.
 
Bhoy
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Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:36 pm

konkret wrote:
TOGA10 wrote:
eicvd wrote:
But KLM do that perfectly at the moment anyway

Just about to say the same. At the moment KL has 16 routes from the U.K. to AMS, and AF has 16 as well to CDG (according to their respective websites). Seems plenty!


What are those 16 destinations that AF serves from CDG?
I am aware of 5 - LHR, BHX, MAN (to be transfered to Joon), EDI, ABZ.
What am I missing?

Air France operate CDG-NCL too, and have numerous codeshares [albeit with BE] to the likes of SOU, CWL and EXT
 
konkret
Posts: 329
Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:26 pm

Re: Flybe up for sale

Wed Nov 14, 2018 5:33 pm

AMS slots are another reason why BE could be interesting for AF/KLM, they could consolidate KL and BE flights to free up some KL slots.
 
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EGTESkyGod
Posts: 1531
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2005 11:27 pm

Re: Flybe up for sale

Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:32 am

Are we forgetting the possibility that Flybe could be bought out by someone and remain as Flybe, with a complete overhaul of their business model to become successful that obviously the current owners and previous owners couldn't do?
I came, I saw, I Concorde! www.gofundme.com/lineupandwait
 
Samrnpage
Posts: 555
Joined: Wed Mar 16, 2016 12:02 pm

Re: Flybe up for sale

Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:29 am

I have said for a while that the UK doesnt have room for Flybe anymore. Any regional routes worth flying (profitable) can be done by Loganair/BMI/Stobart and BACF and that will be that. This is a regional airline with a fleet the size of Swiss or Austrian, they have to use them somewhere so they have put on random routes that make no money.

Here are some routes they actually do.

Newquay to Doncaster
Exeter to Norwich
Aberdeen to Humberside
Edinburgh to Knock
Southend to Leeds
Amongst other baffling routes.

They fly, low yielding, high costing, low demand very short haul routes, with a few European destinations vs Easyjet, Ryanair and other carriers with E-jets or Dash 8s vs 737/A320 for economics. Go figure. When they got the E-jets they should have gone to Europe and expanded to be a European regional carrier, but instead they chose to open a base in Newquay and Donaster etc.
 
skipness1E
Posts: 4862
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:18 am

Re: Flybe up for sale

Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:39 am

Andy33 wrote:
Channex757 wrote:
Sector could be a possibility. As a purely wild guess, BE could be folded into either Loganair or BMI Regional. Again though what does BE bring to the party that some other less indebted carrier could not quickly replicate?

IAG would end up in front of the CMA and CAA. Both would likely say no to them taking over BE without a lot of remedy work. Besides which, IAG isn't interested in hubbing outside the M25 any more.


I agree with almost everything you said - just one tiny point - IAG most definitely do hub at London Gatwick, and unless they've moved it in the last week, Gatwick is outside the M25, though not by a huge mileage.

BA in their own words, do not hub at Gatwick. They have a large leisure focussed point to point operation with some decent feed on GLA/EDI to the Caribbean but that’s pretty much it. The “hub without the hubbub” lost millions and cannibalised their money making hub at LHR.
 
hz747300
Posts: 2417
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 11:38 pm

Re: Flybe up for sale

Thu Nov 15, 2018 5:58 am

We should crowdfund from A.Net and buy it. We'd need to Special Investment Vehicle which would become the holding company, then use that to bid and acquire FlyBe subject to regulatory approval. Then each one of us should get a turn from playing armchair airline CEO to real CEO. We can see if we really can do it better!
Keep on truckin'...
 
David_itl
Posts: 6419
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2001 7:39 am

Re: Flybe up for sale

Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:29 am

Samrnpage wrote:
Here are some routes they actually do.

Newquay to Doncaster
Exeter to Norwich
Aberdeen to Humberside
Edinburgh to Knock
Southend to Leeds
Amongst other baffling routes..


So from your list of 5 routes they fly that we need to mock them for.... one doesn't exist and if it did, it would be a Stobart route done as a Flybe ftanchise and, one is an Eastern Airways route run as a Flybe frranchise so no commercial risk to Flybe.

Looked at the stats for August for the other 3:
NQY-DSA. 2249 passengers at 86 passengers per flight. Very, very slightly down on 2017
EDI-NOC 3426 passengers at 65 passengers per flight. Up 15% on 2017 (and this route has been operating since 2011)
EXT-NWI 3870 passenger at 72 passengers per flight. Up 9% on 2017,

As they survived rationalistion when they were pruning their network, one must assume they are money making, .
 
AAMDanny
Posts: 328
Joined: Wed Apr 30, 2008 4:06 pm

Re: Flybe up for sale

Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:42 am

All in my humble opinion:

IAG/BACF may well be interested in PARTS of the FlyBe.... my gut feeling is, like Monarch, they (just like every other UK airline last year) will allow FlyBe to collapse so they can swoop in and take whatever bits they want, and let the administrators deal with the rest.

That being said, to see FlyBe's operation in BA colours would be great.... especially at BHX/MAN where back in they day BA had a sizeable operation.... however BA has made it's regional strategy clear with just sticking to the premium LCY/BACF operation that they currently run.
 
bennett123
Posts: 10105
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

Re: Flybe up for sale

Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:44 am

Having picked those routes, did you compare flight times to alternative road/rail travel times.

Of the three remaining, (which all have decent LF) EDI to NOC would involve sea crossing apart from any other issues. Furthermore, the South West and East Anglia have imlited high speed options.

You might want to note that the LF on two have also increased.

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