User avatar
qf789
Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 8419
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:42 pm

Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:21 am

Qantas CEO Alan Joyce has dialed back on expectations for the Project Sunrise jet, being either the A350-1000 or 777X. Previously QF remained firm on carrying 300 passengers over 4 classes however that is no longer that expectation but the carrier says that the flights still remain commercially viable.

Qantas is expected to place an order for the aircraft by the end of next year for first delivery around the 2022-2023 timeframe

Qantas CEO Alan Joyce says the airline will choose between the Airbus A350-1000 and Boeing 777X within the next 12 months as partners in its non-stop Project Sunrise flights to London and New York.
However, regardless of the jet chosen to make those marathon 18-20 hour treks, there’s no longer an expectation that it will carry the airline’s previously-stated goal of 300+ passengers across four classes.
“Our belief is [ultra-long-haul flights are] not going to be full passenger payload and freight, but there is sufficient capability to make it commercially viable,” Qantas CEO Alan Joyce has told The South China Morning Post.


https://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-ceo-dia ... pectations
Forum Moderator
 
Pcoder
Posts: 88
Joined: Mon Nov 23, 2015 10:44 am

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:41 am

A smaller seat count would probably make the A350ULR in the box seat as the heavier weight of the 777-8 would probably negate the payload advantage it would have had for a higher seat count.
 
DGVT
Posts: 84
Joined: Wed May 23, 2018 12:27 am

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:45 am

Is it seriously viable to introduce a “minifleet” to cover ULR routes which have a high risk of not beeing profitable when oil goes up and the economy goes down or is this just all about some media presence?
 
User avatar
qf789
Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 8419
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:42 pm

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:51 am

DGVT wrote:
Is it seriously viable to introduce a “minifleet” to cover ULR routes which have a high risk of not beeing profitable when oil goes up and the economy goes down or is this just all about some media presence?


As has been discussed in previous topics whatever is ordered will not only fly routes such as SYD-LHR but will be used on shorter routes such as SYD-HKG or other destinations throughout QF's network
Forum Moderator
 
DGVT
Posts: 84
Joined: Wed May 23, 2018 12:27 am

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:02 am

Th
qf789 wrote:
DGVT wrote:
Is it seriously viable to introduce a “minifleet” to cover ULR routes which have a high risk of not beeing profitable when oil goes up and the economy goes down or is this just all about some media presence?


As has been discussed in previous topics whatever is ordered will not only fly routes such as SYD-LHR but will be used on shorter routes such as SYD-HKG or other destinations throughout QF's network


That I do believe, but when times are tough and you have a lot of competition, flying a 777-8 in ULR config (although I agree that they could reconfigure it) from SYD to HKG probably is a competitive disadvantage.
 
ewt340
Posts: 699
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:12 am

Yeah, I never thought A350-1000 or B777-8X would be good for them. It's too big for Ultra Long-haul flights. Most of them are pretty thin. A350-900ULR and B787-9 have the optimum capacity for these kind of flights. And I agree that they have to go pretty light for the seat count.

Although I'm currently prefer A350 since the normal -900 and -1000 could be used for shorter long-haul flights around West Coast US and Asia.
Beside, I believe Airbus able to offer them modifications that could turn their ULR version to the normal version. This should be a plus for them in terms of risk if project sunrise fails.
 
jfk777
Posts: 6967
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:30 am

Qantas should have the same products on the 777-8 or A350-900 that they on the 787-9. First Class over flights this long is a distraction. Qantas need First only on the A380.
 
tullamarine
Posts: 2073
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:32 am

qf789 wrote:
DGVT wrote:
Is it seriously viable to introduce a “minifleet” to cover ULR routes which have a high risk of not beeing profitable when oil goes up and the economy goes down or is this just all about some media presence?


As has been discussed in previous topics whatever is ordered will not only fly routes such as SYD-LHR but will be used on shorter routes such as SYD-HKG or other destinations throughout QF's network

A 778 would be a very costly plane to fly on a route such as SYD-HKG due to its empty weight. A 359 or 78J would have much better trip costs, a similar or greater seat count and would put QF at a severe cost disadvantage.

This is the issue with ULR planes, their operating costs are high particularly when they are used on routes for which they are not optimised. An example of this is DL using the 77L on SYD-LAX. A 77L and 77W have basically the same trip costs but VA has 48 more seats available on its 77W compared with DL's 77L. An AA 789 has a similar seatcount to the 77L but probably has trip costs at least 25% less than the 777
Last edited by tullamarine on Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
Prost
Posts: 2380
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 6:23 pm

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:33 am

Well the 787-9 serving PER-LHR is going out fairly full, so I’m not certain that they wouldn’t have been able to fill the larger planes on SYD-LHR/NYC. I think A & B had a talk with QF and let them know they weren’t tailoring a plane for the, to the extended that would have been necessary.
 
User avatar
seabosdca
Posts: 6428
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:33 am

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:48 am

This definitely is good news for the A350 (whether -900ULR or a new -1000 variant) and not encouraging for the 777-8. The 778's trump card on ULH is its payload capacity, which advantage would just be extended farther with the MTOW bump that was rumored.

On the other hand, the kicker line about potential A380 replacement would seem to favor a 777-8/777-9 order.
 
User avatar
Erebus
Posts: 966
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 2:40 am

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:56 am

Prost wrote:
Well the 787-9 serving PER-LHR is going out fairly full, so I’m not certain that they wouldn’t have been able to fill the larger planes on SYD-LHR/NYC. I think A & B had a talk with QF and let them know they weren’t tailoring a plane for the, to the extended that would have been necessary.


A couple of questions.

- Is there a significant proportion of passengers on the PER-LHR route originating elsewhere such as Sydney?
- What impact will the opening of SYD-LHR have on the PER-LHR load factors?
 
tullamarine
Posts: 2073
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:06 am

Erebus wrote:
Prost wrote:
Well the 787-9 serving PER-LHR is going out fairly full, so I’m not certain that they wouldn’t have been able to fill the larger planes on SYD-LHR/NYC. I think A & B had a talk with QF and let them know they weren’t tailoring a plane for the, to the extended that would have been necessary.


A couple of questions.

- Is there a significant proportion of passengers on the PER-LHR route originating elsewhere such as Sydney?
- What impact will the opening of SYD-LHR have on the PER-LHR load factors?


Probably not many from SYD, as there are plenty of one-stop alternatives available via SIN and DXB but there are definitely some originating in MEL (where the 789 starts its journey) or ADL.

It's hard to say what impact it will have on load factors. It is possible that QF may ditch the route completely and just have a SYD-LHR using Sunrise and MEL-SIN-LHR using A380 given slot limitations in London.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
StudiodeKadent
Posts: 376
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:43 am

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:12 am

jfk777 wrote:
Qantas should have the same products on the 777-8 or A350-900 that they on the 787-9. First Class over flights this long is a distraction. Qantas need First only on the A380.


No offense but this is completely incorrect.

The marginal value of comfort INCREASES as flight distance does. Premium passengers are also most likely to take nonstops over connecting flights. JFK and LHR are also the two most premium-heavy destinations in the world.

Project Sunrise absolutely will have First Class.
 
StudiodeKadent
Posts: 376
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:43 am

Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:43 am

qf789 wrote:
DGVT wrote:
Is it seriously viable to introduce a “minifleet” to cover ULR routes which have a high risk of not beeing profitable when oil goes up and the economy goes down or is this just all about some media presence?


As has been discussed in previous topics whatever is ordered will not only fly routes such as SYD-LHR but will be used on shorter routes such as SYD-HKG or other destinations throughout QF's network


To be totally honest I'm somewhat skeptical that QF will actually want to use the Project Sunrise jet on the shorter routes. Not to mention, how many of the shorter-haul routes does QF have with sufficient premium demand? HKG, perhaps SIN and HND maybe? LAX and SFO presumably.

Not to mention, let's say the PS jet is either a 777-8ULR or an A350-1000ULR (this seems to be what the choices in question are). Each one of these jets has a larger-capacity (or potentially-larger-capacity) shorter-range bigger-brother with very high levels of commonality and a much bigger ability to replace the A380s in the long term.

Honestly, I think the natural fleet for QF would be the following:
787-9s (one long-range configuration for long and thin routes, one medium-range configuration to replace the A330s)
Project Sunrise Jet (ULR from SYD/MEL to LHR/JFK and possibly FRA/CDG)
Project Sunrise Jet's Bigger, Shorter Range, High-Commonality Brother To Replace A380s (for SYD/MEL to LAX/SFO/HND/HKG/SIN, possibly DFW if it can make the trip)

There may also be a role for the MoM in lower-yield South-East Asian routes (Manila, Bali, Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok), Transcon and Trans-Tasman.
 
User avatar
ikolkyo
Posts: 2578
Joined: Tue Nov 05, 2013 8:43 pm

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:58 am

Yeah I feel the Sunrise aircraft would go to other long range destination.
 
tullamarine
Posts: 2073
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re:

Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:03 am

StudiodeKadent wrote:
qf789 wrote:
DGVT wrote:
Is it seriously viable to introduce a “minifleet” to cover ULR routes which have a high risk of not beeing profitable when oil goes up and the economy goes down or is this just all about some media presence?


As has been discussed in previous topics whatever is ordered will not only fly routes such as SYD-LHR but will be used on shorter routes such as SYD-HKG or other destinations throughout QF's network


To be totally honest I'm somewhat skeptical that QF will actually want to use the Project Sunrise jet on the shorter routes. Not to mention, how many of the shorter-haul routes does QF have with sufficient premium demand? HKG, perhaps SIN and HND maybe? LAX and SFO presumably.

Not to mention, let's say the PS jet is either a 777-8ULR or an A350-1000ULR (this seems to be what the choices in question are). Each one of these jets has a larger-capacity (or potentially-larger-capacity) shorter-range bigger-brother with very high levels of commonality and a much bigger ability to replace the A380s in the long term.

Honestly, I think the natural fleet for QF would be the following:
787-9s (one long-range configuration for long and thin routes, one medium-range configuration to replace the A330s)
Project Sunrise Jet (ULR from SYD/MEL to LHR/JFK and possibly FRA/CDG)
Project Sunrise Jet's Bigger, Shorter Range, High-Commonality Brother To Replace A380s (for SYD/MEL to LAX/SFO/HND/HKG/SIN, possibly DFW if it can make the trip)

There may also be a role for the MoM in lower-yield South-East Asian routes (Manila, Bali, Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok), Transcon and Trans-Tasman.


You may be right about the mid-range 789 in the long-term but the A330s still have great trip cost and are largely depreciated. There is no need to start replacement of these for another 4 or 5 years.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
StudiodeKadent
Posts: 376
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:43 am

Re: Re:

Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:08 am

tullamarine wrote:
StudiodeKadent wrote:
qf789 wrote:

As has been discussed in previous topics whatever is ordered will not only fly routes such as SYD-LHR but will be used on shorter routes such as SYD-HKG or other destinations throughout QF's network


To be totally honest I'm somewhat skeptical that QF will actually want to use the Project Sunrise jet on the shorter routes. Not to mention, how many of the shorter-haul routes does QF have with sufficient premium demand? HKG, perhaps SIN and HND maybe? LAX and SFO presumably.

Not to mention, let's say the PS jet is either a 777-8ULR or an A350-1000ULR (this seems to be what the choices in question are). Each one of these jets has a larger-capacity (or potentially-larger-capacity) shorter-range bigger-brother with very high levels of commonality and a much bigger ability to replace the A380s in the long term.

Honestly, I think the natural fleet for QF would be the following:
787-9s (one long-range configuration for long and thin routes, one medium-range configuration to replace the A330s)
Project Sunrise Jet (ULR from SYD/MEL to LHR/JFK and possibly FRA/CDG)
Project Sunrise Jet's Bigger, Shorter Range, High-Commonality Brother To Replace A380s (for SYD/MEL to LAX/SFO/HND/HKG/SIN, possibly DFW if it can make the trip)

There may also be a role for the MoM in lower-yield South-East Asian routes (Manila, Bali, Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok), Transcon and Trans-Tasman.


You may be right about the mid-range 789 in the long-term but the A330s still have great trip cost and are largely depreciated. There is no need to start replacement of these for another 4 or 5 years.


I agree entirely. QF doesn't have to replace everything right away.
 
c933103
Posts: 3694
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:38 am

qf789 wrote:
DGVT wrote:
Is it seriously viable to introduce a “minifleet” to cover ULR routes which have a high risk of not beeing profitable when oil goes up and the economy goes down or is this just all about some media presence?


As has been discussed in previous topics whatever is ordered will not only fly routes such as SYD-LHR but will be used on shorter routes such as SYD-HKG or other destinations throughout QF's network

Will this still be the case, now that they say they're no longer expecting to have an ordinary configuration on aircraft that fly these routes?
This is a placeholder.
 
User avatar
vhtje
Posts: 958
Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 12:40 pm

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:06 am

jfk777 wrote:
Qantas should have the same products on the 777-8 or A350-900 that they on the 787-9. First Class over flights this long is a distraction. Qantas need First only on the A380.


Says who? You? Me, I'd happily pay for First on a ULH flight - in fact I would be more willing to pay for First on a 17+ hour sector than I would on a 12-14 hour sector. It's all about the personal space.
I only turn left when boarding aircraft. Well, mostly. All right, sometimes. OH OKAY - rarely.
 
travelhound
Posts: 1846
Joined: Fri May 23, 2008 9:13 pm

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:20 am

If we consider a 777X or A350LR will cost in the range of $200m and QF will need a fleet of ten to make the fleet sustainable, the cost for the niche aircraft could simply be too high. If we consider the QF widebody fleet consisting of 56 aircraft have a current valuation of $5.3 billion, spending $2b on a plane that can serve limited markets may not be the best use of capital.

Other commentators have suggested flying a ULR from SYD-LHR may become uneconomical in a high fuel price environment.

From where I sit QF should be focusing their energies on markets that are core to their customer base. I'd suggest these ULR flights only appeal to a very small percentage of QF customers.

to put thus into further perspective QF need to spend approximately $250m PA on new aircraft just to maintain market share. This does not include CAPEX for replacement aircraft. As such between now and 2023 QF need to spend 1.25b on new aircraft just to protect their position in the market.

I find it very hard to justify a $2b spend on ULR markets.
 
Ruscoe
Posts: 1735
Joined: Sun Aug 22, 1999 5:41 pm

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:27 am

Joyce said, to quote the Australian Business Traveller,
"Our belief is [ULR flights are] NOT going to be full pax and freight....." ; I interpret this to mean that neither manufacturer is going to be able to meet this requirement, but he goes on to say that even so they can be made commercially viable.

The Project Sunrise aircraft "could be a good aircraft..." to replace the airlines A380's.

So I doubt much has changed, except the last comment favours the 777X imo.


Ruscoe
 
getluv
Posts: 444
Joined: Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:11 pm

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:14 am

travelhound wrote:

Other commentators have suggested flying a ULR from SYD-LHR may become uneconomical in a high fuel price environment.

From where I sit QF should be focusing their energies on markets that are core to their customer base. I'd suggest these ULR flights only appeal to a very small percentage of QF customers.



That's the point of this exercise. QF is not trying to appeal to everyone.
I'm that bad type.
 
yonikasz
Posts: 104
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2013 6:47 pm

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:36 am

tullamarine wrote:
qf789 wrote:
DGVT wrote:
Is it seriously viable to introduce a “minifleet” to cover ULR routes which have a high risk of not beeing profitable when oil goes up and the economy goes down or is this just all about some media presence?


As has been discussed in previous topics whatever is ordered will not only fly routes such as SYD-LHR but will be used on shorter routes such as SYD-HKG or other destinations throughout QF's network

A 778 would be a very costly plane to fly on a route such as SYD-HKG due to its empty weight. A 359 or 78J would have much better trip costs, a similar or greater seat count and would put QF at a severe cost disadvantage.

This is the issue with ULR planes, their operating costs are high particularly when they are used on routes for which they are not optimised. An example of this is DL using the 77L on SYD-LAX. A 77L and 77W have basically the same trip costs but VA has 48 more seats available on its 77W compared with DL's 77L. An AA 789 has a similar seatcount to the 77L but probably has trip costs at least 25% less than the 777


Why did Delta order the 77L?
 
c933103
Posts: 3694
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:46 am

Ruscoe wrote:
Joyce said, to quote the Australian Business Traveller,
"Our belief is [ULR flights are] NOT going to be full pax and freight....." ; I interpret this to mean that neither manufacturer is going to be able to meet this requirement, but he goes on to say that even so they can be made commercially viable.

The Project Sunrise aircraft "could be a good aircraft..." to replace the airlines A380's.

So I doubt much has changed, except the last comment favours the 777X imo.


Ruscoe

With their 787 replacing their 747 it wouldn't be that much of a surprise if they ultimately used A350 to replace A380 either
This is a placeholder.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 12949
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:21 am

I think QF will get A350-1000's. With or without Sunrise.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
User avatar
cv990Coronado
Posts: 340
Joined: Thu Nov 08, 2007 4:38 pm

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:27 am

getluv wrote:
travelhound wrote:

Other commentators have suggested flying a ULR from SYD-LHR may become uneconomical in a high fuel price environment.

From where I sit QF should be focusing their energies on markets that are core to their customer base. I'd suggest these ULR flights only appeal to a very small percentage of QF customers.



That's the point of this exercise. QF is not trying to appeal to everyone.


Exactly, they are trying to protect and enhance their unique high-end customer base. They will never be able to beat the ME3 and Asian/Chinese airlines for the mass market and maybe don't even want to.
SSC-707B727 737-741234SP757/762/3/772/WA300/10/319/2/1-342/3/6-880-DAM-VC10 TRD 111 Ju52-DC8/9/10/11-YS11-748-VCV DH4B L
 
parapente
Posts: 3061
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:42 pm

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:00 am

In truth this article could imply many things.Hard to tell.One thing is certain is he wants to grab as much of the high yield as he can from ME3.But that's hardly surprising.Perhaps the forecasts look so good ( for the top 3 high yield classes)that there is no space for poor old Y at the back.He may even prefer a little high yield cargo if their is any spare weight.
I am surprised that the decision will take to the end of next year though.Would have though the earlier the better.If he is talking seat designs will th the manufacturers then the decision is made (to do it) one way or the other.
 
Boeing74741R
Posts: 1075
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 5:44 am

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:10 am

ewt340 wrote:
Yeah, I never thought A350-1000 or B777-8X would be good for them. It's too big for Ultra Long-haul flights. Most of them are pretty thin.


I wouldn't call LHR-SYD thin, particularly given the use of the A380 on that route via SIN and the plethora of one-stop options available. Whether a non-stop route will be busy remains to be seen, but no doubt Qantas have done their homework with that regard and the success of LHR-PER to date is no doubt encouraging for the prospects of Project Sunrise.
 
User avatar
ClassicLover
Posts: 4688
Joined: Tue Mar 09, 2004 12:27 pm

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:24 am

qf789 wrote:
Qantas CEO Alan Joyce has dialed back on expectations for the Project Sunrise jet, being either the A350-1000 or 777X. Previously QF remained firm on carrying 300 passengers over 4 classes however that is no longer that expectation but the carrier says that the flights still remain commercially viable.


To be fair though, you should give the manufacturers a stretch goal and see how close they can get to meeting it. Clearly there was provision for a reduction - the only thing that remains to be seen is where the reduction will be.
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
OMAAbound
Posts: 196
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2016 12:43 am

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:28 am

I’m gonna throw this one out there, but what if QF launched a business only flight, similar to that of SQ, between SYD-LHR.

As has been said before, if SYD-LHR is launched, then what would be the outcome of PER-LHR or even the current SYD-SIN-LHR.

OMAA
Right hand seat of a 787. Also can be found eating sandwiches, drinking coffee and attempting to understand Chinese ATC!
 
travelhound
Posts: 1846
Joined: Fri May 23, 2008 9:13 pm

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:56 am

cv990Coronado wrote:
getluv wrote:
travelhound wrote:

Other commentators have suggested flying a ULR from SYD-LHR may become uneconomical in a high fuel price environment.

From where I sit QF should be focusing their energies on markets that are core to their customer base. I'd suggest these ULR flights only appeal to a very small percentage of QF customers.



That's the point of this exercise. QF is not trying to appeal to everyone.


Exactly, they are trying to protect and enhance their unique high-end customer base. They will never be able to beat the ME3 and Asian/Chinese airlines for the mass market and maybe don't even want to.


QF have a very loyal customer base with the majority of them willing to pay a premium for the benefits of flying with QANTAS (i.e. frequent flyer program).

If we look at QF's corporate accounts the majority of flights booked are based upon the ability of QF to provide a flight with a suitable schedule to the destination required. If QF loose that ability, or QF's competition are able to provide increased schedules and destinations by growing market share there will ultimately be an inflection point where the QF product has less value.

My argument revolves around QF servicing its core market. For this to happen, at the very least they have to grow the international business at the same rate (or similar) as the growth in international markets they serve.

We have already witnessed a subsrantial increase in QF passengers flying to Singapore by simply adding capacity. This suggests there was an underlying demand for the QF product that QF was not meeting.

Not many businesses have the luxury of underserving customers and have those customers remain loyal over the longer term. They will ultimately go elsewhere.

I'd suggest QF's international business has more pressing priorities. Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan and China are all growth markets that are / will be crying out for increased investment by QF.
 
NTLDaz
Posts: 335
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2011 7:56 am

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:08 am

Whilst Australia is a huge country with a relatively small population Sydney and Melbourne are very large cities in one of the planet's richest countries.

I'm quite confident that there will be a large premium demand to 2 of the world's key markets- LON and NYC.
 
DGVT
Posts: 84
Joined: Wed May 23, 2018 12:27 am

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:46 am

[twoid]l[/twoid]
NTLDaz wrote:
Whilst Australia is a huge country with a relatively small population Sydney and Melbourne are very large cities in one of the planet's richest countries.

I'm quite confident that there will be a large premium demand to 2 of the world's key markets- LON and NYC.


London I kind of understand due to the good old times, but why NYC. What is the big connection with NYC?
Purely judging from trade statistics I do not see why the US market is so important. APAC is clearly No.1 and then comes the EU.
 
parapente
Posts: 3061
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:42 pm

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:37 am

Since it appears a slam dunk that project Sunrise will happen in some form.EIS 2026? What then happens to the standard A380 on these routes?Surely too much high yield will have gone to support them?
 
getluv
Posts: 444
Joined: Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:11 pm

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:46 am

DGVT wrote:
[twoid]l[/twoid]
NTLDaz wrote:
Whilst Australia is a huge country with a relatively small population Sydney and Melbourne are very large cities in one of the planet's richest countries.

I'm quite confident that there will be a large premium demand to 2 of the world's key markets- LON and NYC.


London I kind of understand due to the good old times, but why NYC. What is the big connection with NYC?
Purely judging from trade statistics I do not see why the US market is so important. APAC is clearly No.1 and then comes the EU.


More Americans visit Australia than Brits.

Australia and USA flights are regulated and are limited to Australian (& NZ) and US carriers. Other carriers generally offer cheaper indirect competition but not enough to persuade most business travellers where time is of the essence. As such, North America is QF’s most profitable regions.
Last edited by getluv on Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
I'm that bad type.
 
flipdewaf
Posts: 2754
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:28 am

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:51 am

My model suggests that for the A351 with a landing weight of 201t to travel the 9188nm needs about 131t of fuel and so an increase in MTOW from 320t to to 332 tonnes.
Do we think 332t MTOW could be achieved on the A351 as it stands?

Fre
Image
 
parapente
Posts: 3061
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:42 pm

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:56 am

332t mtow? Not qualified to know other than to say that Airbus have said that a stretched version (2000x but goes by various names) was a relatively simple task.Unless they were going to shorten range very dramatically ( they weren't as far as I am aware) then it suggests that a higher mtow for the aircaft is very possible.
 
ewt340
Posts: 699
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:24 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Yeah, I never thought A350-1000 or B777-8X would be good for them. It's too big for Ultra Long-haul flights. Most of them are pretty thin.


I wouldn't call LHR-SYD thin, particularly given the use of the A380 on that route via SIN and the plethora of one-stop options available. Whether a non-stop route will be busy remains to be seen, but no doubt Qantas have done their homework with that regard and the success of LHR-PER to date is no doubt encouraging for the prospects of Project Sunrise.


Sorry, I should clarify, what I mean is the amount of people who would want to fly directly between SYD/MEL - LHR in 20 hours would probably be lower compared to the one who would choose to get 1 stopover to stretch out. Especially economy class passengers.

PER-LHR is bad enough for 16 hours, especially if you sit in the middle seat, and they are a success because they just acting as the stopover, replacing dubai, or singapore. They're succesful because it's the only one stopover within australia. Also, they have a really sparse configurations,
SYD-LHR itself have tons of demand, with stopover.

For first and business class passengers this is a good thing, not soo much for economy class passengers.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 12949
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:58 pm

What percentage of the business / flights is SYD/MEL - LHR for QF? At what margins (competing with ME3, SQ and CX)?

Passengers form Manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow, Brisbane, Adelaide or Auckland will make 1 stop anyway.

Anyway 1 stop offers superior flexibility, departure time options and price.

All this to avoid the ~3 hours, doing a shower / Asian food a Silverkris / EK Business lounge after an 11 hour flight.

When reserving 1-1.5 days for travel anyway, that break is really terrible.. I would pay a fortune to avoid it.

Image

travelhound wrote:
I'd suggest QF's international business has more pressing priorities. Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan and China are all growth markets that are / will be crying out for increased investment by QF.


:checkmark:
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
jfk777
Posts: 6967
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:07 pm

StudiodeKadent wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Qantas should have the same products on the 777-8 or A350-900 that they on the 787-9. First Class over flights this long is a distraction. Qantas need First only on the A380.


No offense but this is completely incorrect.

The marginal value of comfort INCREASES as flight distance does. Premium passengers are also most likely to take nonstops over connecting flights. JFK and LHR are also the two most premium-heavy destinations in the world.

Project Sunrise absolutely will have First Class.


Which airlines currently operating ultra long haul flights have First Class ? None, that is not by mistake. First Class seats or suites weigh too much for such flights. Singapore flies only Business and premium economy on their A350 ULR, that is not by mistake, its about the economics. Qantas 787-9 ditch First Class too. Even the Qatar Airways and Emirates flights to Auckland use 777LR with no First Class, those flights are 18 hours from Doha & Dubai.
 
jfk777
Posts: 6967
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:15 pm

travelhound wrote:
If we consider a 777X or A350LR will cost in the range of $200m and QF will need a fleet of ten to make the fleet sustainable, the cost for the niche aircraft could simply be too high. If we consider the QF widebody fleet consisting of 56 aircraft have a current valuation of $5.3 billion, spending $2b on a plane that can serve limited markets may not be the best use of capital.

Other commentators have suggested flying a ULR from SYD-LHR may become uneconomical in a high fuel price environment.

From where I sit QF should be focusing their energies on markets that are core to their customer base. I'd suggest these ULR flights only appeal to a very small percentage of QF customers.

to put thus into further perspective QF need to spend approximately $250m PA on new aircraft just to maintain market share. This does not include CAPEX for replacement aircraft. As such between now and 2023 QF need to spend 1.25b on new aircraft just to protect their position in the market.

I find it very hard to justify a $2b spend on ULR markets.


If its was only about buying a small fleet for JFK and LHR you would be right. But if Qantas buys ten 777-8 for that mission it would also buy another 15 777-9 for LAX/ SFO/ DFW/HKG and Tokyo then its makes sense. The A380 will be QF's last four engine airplane.
 
User avatar
ClassicLover
Posts: 4688
Joined: Tue Mar 09, 2004 12:27 pm

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:18 pm

travelhound wrote:
I'd suggest QF's international business has more pressing priorities. Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan and China are all growth markets that are / will be crying out for increased investment by QF.


This is already happening. I read an article recently where Qantas were stating they were focused on Asia and that flying had changed from 33% Europe, 33% Asia and 33% USA to something like 5% Europe, 55% Asia and 40% USA. They are well aware Asia is where the growth is - they'd be very silly not to.

parapente wrote:
Since it appears a slam dunk that project Sunrise will happen in some form.EIS 2026? What then happens to the standard A380 on these routes?Surely too much high yield will have gone to support them?


EIS is slated for 2022 in all reports I have heard regarding Project Sunrise. This is also when the 777 version is due to arrive, so it could be either aircraft. Looking forward to seeing what 2019 will bring.
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
StudiodeKadent
Posts: 376
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:43 am

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:26 pm

jfk777 wrote:
Which airlines currently operating ultra long haul flights have First Class ? None, that is not by mistake. First Class seats or suites weigh too much for such flights. Singapore flies only Business and premium economy on their A350 ULR, that is not by mistake, its about the economics. Qantas 787-9 ditch First Class too. Even the Qatar Airways and Emirates flights to Auckland use 777LR with no First Class, those flights are 18 hours from Doha & Dubai.


QF's 787-9 lacks First because it isn't a flagship jet and because Perth doesn't have much First demand. The route to London via Singapore, however, does have First on it, because there is First demand both from MEL/SYD to SIN and from MEL/SYD to LHR.

The SQ situation is interesting and you're right that there has to be some sort of explanation for it. From what I read before the route launched, the reason for the lack of First was because they presumed the cost of Business tickets would be so high it would crowd out the market space for First. This makes sense, partially because Singapore Airlines' Business product is very low density compared to the industry average. QF's product is meaningfully denser which would bring down per-seat operating costs.

Regarding Qatar and Emirates, Auckland lacks a large amount of First demand. In addition, Emirates flies an A380 with First to Auckland as well. Qatar's business model is somewhat First-Class-averse especially with QSuite arguably sufficient to cater to that market space as well as Business.

I should add, I am not attempting to imply that the ONLY factor in First demand is the length of the route. Merely that, ceteris paribus, more distance = more premium demand as the value of comfort increases on longer flights. Obviously there are other factors like the wealth of the cities being connected, but distance matters too; we don't see much in the way of first class between London and Paris even though they're both very wealthy cities.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 5225
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:23 pm

tullamarine wrote:
This is the issue with ULR planes, their operating costs are high particularly when they are used on routes for which they are not optimised. An example of this is DL using the 77L on SYD-LAX. A 77L and 77W have basically the same trip costs but VA has 48 more seats available on its 77W compared with DL's 77L.


A 77W carries 50K pounds more empty weight than a 77L, plus the weight of people and bags. Having the same trip cost would be quite a trick. I call BS.
 
smartplane
Posts: 979
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:46 pm

ClassicLover wrote:
travelhound wrote:
I'd suggest QF's international business has more pressing priorities. Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan and China are all growth markets that are / will be crying out for increased investment by QF.


This is already happening. I read an article recently where Qantas were stating they were focused on Asia and that flying had changed from 33% Europe, 33% Asia and 33% USA to something like 5% Europe, 55% Asia and 40% USA. They are well aware Asia is where the growth is - they'd be very silly not to.

But the inverse for margins and profit per region.

Non-stop to Europe is the only unique proposition QF will ever be able to offer. Ditto for NZ.

Current offering is a hybrid, as most passengers are not originating in Perth, so still a one stop for the majority, albeit a domestic leg.

If QF can go direct from Melbourne and Sydney, Perth will be gone.

Load factors are irrelevant in a premium heavy operation. Key questions: What are QF really achieving - LF per class and average payment per class? And what business has QF lost in respect to one stop bookings?
 
jagraham
Posts: 848
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:10 pm

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:18 pm

tullamarine wrote:
qf789 wrote:
DGVT wrote:
Is it seriously viable to introduce a “minifleet” to cover ULR routes which have a high risk of not beeing profitable when oil goes up and the economy goes down or is this just all about some media presence?


As has been discussed in previous topics whatever is ordered will not only fly routes such as SYD-LHR but will be used on shorter routes such as SYD-HKG or other destinations throughout QF's network

A 778 would be a very costly plane to fly on a route such as SYD-HKG due to its empty weight. A 359 or 78J would have much better trip costs, a similar or greater seat count and would put QF at a severe cost disadvantage.

This is the issue with ULR planes, their operating costs are high particularly when they are used on routes for which they are not optimised. An example of this is DL using the 77L on SYD-LAX. A 77L and 77W have basically the same trip costs but VA has 48 more seats available on its 77W compared with DL's 77L. An AA 789 has a similar seatcount to the 77L but probably has trip costs at least 25% less than the 777


First, the 778 compared to the 77W is supposed to be more than 15% better, with 10% from the engines and the rest from the wings. Especially with MTOW being the same. Anywhere a 77W is working now, a 778 should work better.

The empty weight of the 778 is supposed to be more than offset by the wings and engines. The 779 OEW is about 400000 lb, the 778 should be about 40000 lb less, or 360000 lb (163t). It could come in under that, but we shall see. The 778 should weigh less than a 77W since it is almost 15 feet shorter.

The A35J is advertising 155t, but being 25 foot longer than the A359 at 140 to 145t, it's doubtful it will only be 155t; scaled up from the A359 it would be the same 163t as a 778, but I would bet 160t is the real OEW.

In any case, the 778 is not much heavier than the A35J, which is its direct competition.

And no way does either the A359 or 78J seat 360 pax in 2 classes; there is the question of how many places QF needs a 77W sized aircraft, but if they can sell the seats and fly over 4 hours, the 778 will work best (acquisition cost not considered).
 
AsiaTravel
Posts: 310
Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 2:28 am

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:43 pm

jagraham wrote:
The A35J is advertising 155t, but being 25 foot longer than the A359 at 140 to 145t, it's doubtful it will only be 155t; scaled up from the A359 it would be the same 163t as a 778, but I would bet 160t is the real OEW.


Surely with 9 A35J flying for two airlines the OEW should be more than just a bet at this point. IMHO however, any number for the 778 is pure speculation.
 
mk2
Posts: 15
Joined: Fri Jun 17, 2016 6:49 pm

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:47 pm

jagraham wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
qf789 wrote:

As has been discussed in previous topics whatever is ordered will not only fly routes such as SYD-LHR but will be used on shorter routes such as SYD-HKG or other destinations throughout QF's network

A 778 would be a very costly plane to fly on a route such as SYD-HKG due to its empty weight. A 359 or 78J would have much better trip costs, a similar or greater seat count and would put QF at a severe cost disadvantage.

This is the issue with ULR planes, their operating costs are high particularly when they are used on routes for which they are not optimised. An example of this is DL using the 77L on SYD-LAX. A 77L and 77W have basically the same trip costs but VA has 48 more seats available on its 77W compared with DL's 77L. An AA 789 has a similar seatcount to the 77L but probably has trip costs at least 25% less than the 777


First, the 778 compared to the 77W is supposed to be more than 15% better, with 10% from the engines and the rest from the wings. Especially with MTOW being the same. Anywhere a 77W is working now, a 778 should work better.

The empty weight of the 778 is supposed to be more than offset by the wings and engines. The 779 OEW is about 400000 lb, the 778 should be about 40000 lb less, or 360000 lb (163t). It could come in under that, but we shall see. The 778 should weigh less than a 77W since it is almost 15 feet shorter.

The A35J is advertising 155t, but being 25 foot longer than the A359 at 140 to 145t, it's doubtful it will only be 155t; scaled up from the A359 it would be the same 163t as a 778, but I would bet 160t is the real OEW.

In any case, the 778 is not much heavier than the A35J, which is its direct competition.

And no way does either the A359 or 78J seat 360 pax in 2 classes; there is the question of how many places QF needs a 77W sized aircraft, but if they can sell the seats and fly over 4 hours, the 778 will work best (acquisition cost not considered).


In the following thread, we managed to have a good conversation on the A359 and A35K OEW.

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=1370539

A number of persons contributed OEW data from airline experience.

I extrapolated the OEW from the Airbus A350 ACAP:

A359 OEW is about 138 700 kg
A35K OEW is about 155 800 kg

For more details, please go through the thread.
 
ikramerica
Posts: 14840
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:39 pm

Maybe the success of PER-LHR on an aircraft without 300 seats and limited in cargo showed QF that they don't need what they thought they did? Maybe they realized that what they might need is an aircraft that can do it with a few more limitations, but that can also be used on PER-EU/UK flights giving those flights MORE lift? Robbing from peter to pay paul, but in a positive way? Larger fleet of slightly less capable aircraft that can be used effectively on more routes...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
SeanM1997
Posts: 247
Joined: Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:27 pm

Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:46 pm

Qantas own 4 daily slot pairs at Heathrow. After communication with Qantas, they stated the desire was to use all 4 pairs and launch:
LHR-SYD
LHR-MEL
LHR-PER
LHR-SIN-BNE

The Singapore service needed to be timed for other connecting Qantas flights but operating 3x daily non stop Australia to London would be very impressive

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos