Gemuser
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 21, 2018 10:05 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
Newbiepilot [Reply94]
I think you missed the point. The cargo flow on the Atlas charters is one way North America-Australia-China-North America. My understanding is that QF fifth freedom rights China to North America are for FREIGHT ONLY! So belly cargo is irrelevant to the charter operations, belly cargo Australia - North America is currently sufficient for demand, I doubt cargo capacity will be a major consideration for the Project Sunrise aircraft, a consideration certainly but not a major one.

Gemuser


The two 747Fs mostly fly North America to Australia via Hawaii.

Newbie!!! After they do that they fly to CHINA then back to North America almost every flight [maybe every flight, I am not sure]. QF do NOT need the B747F for Australia - North America traffic, it's just not that big. If it was they would probably find it economic to buy/fly their own B747Fs.

Gemuser
 
jupiter2
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 21, 2018 10:21 am

Gemuser wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
Newbiepilot [Reply94]
I think you missed the point. The cargo flow on the Atlas charters is one way North America-Australia-China-North America. My understanding is that QF fifth freedom rights China to North America are for FREIGHT ONLY! So belly cargo is irrelevant to the charter operations, belly cargo Australia - North America is currently sufficient for demand, I doubt cargo capacity will be a major consideration for the Project Sunrise aircraft, a consideration certainly but not a major one.

Gemuser


The two 747Fs mostly fly North America to Australia via Hawaii.

Newbie!!! After they do that they fly to CHINA then back to North America almost every flight [maybe every flight, I am not sure]. QF do NOT need the B747F for Australia - North America traffic, it's just not that big. If it was they would probably find it economic to buy/fly their own B747Fs.

Gemuser


Actually every freighter from North America to Australia, then routes out via Asia. Whether it be QF/5X/FX/PO, they all return to North America via an Asian port, or ports. Lower deck capacity on passenger flights is more than enough for the regular volumes from Australia to North America, anything too big for the lower deck they'll send via Asia.
 
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:07 am

jupiter2 wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:

The two 747Fs mostly fly North America to Australia via Hawaii.

Newbie!!! After they do that they fly to CHINA then back to North America almost every flight [maybe every flight, I am not sure]. QF do NOT need the B747F for Australia - North America traffic, it's just not that big. If it was they would probably find it economic to buy/fly their own B747Fs.

Gemuser


Actually every freighter from North America to Australia, then routes out via Asia. Whether it be QF/5X/FX/PO, they all return to North America via an Asian port, or ports. Lower deck capacity on passenger flights is more than enough for the regular volumes from Australia to North America, anything too big for the lower deck they'll send via Asia.


Which is basically what Gemuser said, and you are both correct. The freighter operations of all airlines betwren the US and Australia aren't serving the same market as belly cargo carried on SYD-LAX. In this case Qantas are (very smartly) exploiting their China-USA fifth freedom cargo rights.
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jupiter2
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 21, 2018 12:23 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
jupiter2 wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
Newbie!!! After they do that they fly to CHINA then back to North America almost every flight [maybe every flight, I am not sure]. QF do NOT need the B747F for Australia - North America traffic, it's just not that big. If it was they would probably find it economic to buy/fly their own B747Fs.

Gemuser


Actually every freighter from North America to Australia, then routes out via Asia. Whether it be QF/5X/FX/PO, they all return to North America via an Asian port, or ports. Lower deck capacity on passenger flights is more than enough for the regular volumes from Australia to North America, anything too big for the lower deck they'll send via Asia.


Which is basically what Gemuser said, and you are both correct. The freighter operations of all airlines betwren the US and Australia aren't serving the same market as belly cargo carried on SYD-LAX. In this case Qantas are (very smartly) exploiting their China-USA fifth freedom cargo rights.


Yes, I was well aware of what Gemuser had said and was simply backing it up with the point that all freighters ex North America to Australia, return via Asian cities.

However, do not under estimate how much freight is carried in the holds of Australia/U.S.A. flights, there just isn't the need for main deck capacity. Any of the proposed aircraft would carry more freight Australia East Coast to the the U.S. West Coast than anything flying the routes now, with maybe the exception of the DL 77L.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 21, 2018 1:21 pm

I thought this thread is about project sunrise and the frames that Qantas will perhaps buy for it. I do not see any indication for the decision that Boeing or Airbus will come out on top.

Regarding the discussion of the future fleet of Qantas, I believe that the replacement of the A330 fleet is one of the low priorities at Qantas, the fleet is that young.
I have also very little believe that 787 will replace the A330 fleet, Qantas does not need the range. Regarding the 797, Qantas moves a lot of freight with the A330. As the concept of the 797 is with very low priority on freight, I can hardly see, that the 797 will be useful for Qantas.

What Qantas could look at in the near future, are bigger narrow bodies, 737-10 or A321.
 
Waterbomber
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 21, 2018 2:25 pm

I'm going to give my 2 cents about how this will unfold.

1. The PER-LHR route is going to suffer over this Northern winter.
Why? Because while QF has a large Australian customer base, I don't see many of them paying big money to fly to London and bare with the Londonian cold which this year started early. It's already freezing in London. Even less so from PER.
Some Australians might go back during the school holidays, but I don't see families of 3 or more paying a premium to fly the PER route.

2. Global travel demand is faltering for the next 3 months. We're seeing a drop of fares and yields across the board.

3. On MEL-LHR, QF is already matching one-stop fares of other carriers as well as its own A380 service via SIN, sometimes even undercutting the latter. So what's the point?

4. It's almost 2019 and making a decision at the end of 2019 for a 2022/2023 delivery of a special version of the A350/B777X with full order books seems a non-starter. Not only will those delivery slots cost QF a fortune, the tailored specs will come at a premium, even if they order an additional 20 copies for non-ULR operations.

5. By the end of 2019, the QF board is going to ditch this project and focus on Asia. PER-LHR becomes seasonal (Northern summer only).
A B787/A330NEO/A350 order will be announced.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 21, 2018 2:45 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
1. The PER-LHR route is going to suffer over this Northern winter.
Why? Because while QF has a large Australian customer base, I don't see many of them paying big money to fly to London and bare with the Londonian cold which this year started early. It's already freezing in London. Even less so from PER.


Which increases demand out of LHR heading to Australia, that's' when most of the British head south, i.e. Northern Winter.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 21, 2018 2:49 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
1. The PER-LHR route is going to suffer over this Northern winter.
Why? Because while QF has a large Australian customer base, I don't see many of them paying big money to fly to London and bare with the Londonian cold which this year started early. It's already freezing in London. Even less so from PER.


Which increases demand out of LHR heading to Australia, that's' when most of the British head south, i.e. Northern Winter.
 
AsiaTravel
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 21, 2018 3:20 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
I'm going to give my 2 cents about how this will unfold.

1. The PER-LHR route is going to suffer over this Northern winter.
Why? Because while QF has a large Australian customer base, I don't see many of them paying big money to fly to London and bare with the Londonian cold which this year started early. It's already freezing in London. Even less so from PER.
Some Australians might go back during the school holidays, but I don't see families of 3 or more paying a premium to fly the PER route.


Not true, give me any date in this northern winter and I'll pull you the seat map of QF9/10 which shows flights are already quite full.

Waterbomber wrote:
2. Global travel demand is faltering for the next 3 months. We're seeing a drop of fares and yields across the board.


Any data, articles to back this up? For now this is only a statement with no value.

Waterbomber wrote:
3. On MEL-LHR, QF is already matching one-stop fares of other carriers as well as its own A380 service via SIN, sometimes even undercutting the latter. So what's the point?


MEL-LHR on QF9 in economy is on average 50% above minimum price during the month of December and January, not once does it undercut any other airline, lowest fare difference is 9% above the minimum fare .
In business it is even higher, fare are on average 100% higher than any other alternative during December and January with a minimum difference of 28% above the minimum fare .

Fares can be easily compared with Google flight.
 
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eta unknown
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 21, 2018 3:45 pm

I think Waterbomber was referring to NOV/mid JAN onwards- outside Australian school holiday periods.
 
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 21, 2018 4:23 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
I'm going to give my 2 cents about how this will unfold.

1. The PER-LHR route is going to suffer over this Northern winter.
Why? Because while QF has a large Australian customer base, I don't see many of them paying big money to fly to London and bare with the Londonian cold which this year started early. It's already freezing in London. Even less so from PER.
Some Australians might go back during the school holidays, but I don't see families of 3 or more paying a premium to fly the PER route.


My two cents says that all those Brits flooding LHR-PER in northern winter, at some point will board the PER-LHR leg . . . :-)
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DeltaB717
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 21, 2018 10:57 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
4. It's almost 2019 and making a decision at the end of 2019 for a 2022/2023 delivery of a special version of the A350/B777X with full order books seems a non-starter. Not only will those delivery slots cost QF a fortune, the tailored specs will come at a premium, even if they order an additional 20 copies for non-ULR operations.


I don't agree with most of your points but, as others have already touched on the others, I'm going to pick this one up. Do we honestly think, with the profile that Project Sunrise has and the design work that's involved for either manufacturer to even get to the formal RFP stage, that they haven't quarantined some delivery slots in which to manufacture and deliver the aircraft based on the information QF has no doubt given them about number of frames, EOI dates and expected delivery schedules? A & B would have to be mad not to have done so...
 
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:21 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
4. It's almost 2019 and making a decision at the end of 2019 for a 2022/2023 delivery of a special version of the A350/B777X with full order books seems a non-starter. Not only will those delivery slots cost QF a fortune, the tailored specs will come at a premium, even if they order an additional 20 copies for non-ULR operations.

5. By the end of 2019, the QF board is going to ditch this project and focus on Asia. PER-LHR becomes seasonal (Northern summer only).
A B787/A330NEO/A350 order will be announced.


I think both of these are disprovable.

First is the aircraft acquisition timeframe and cost. There is very little issue with that timeframe from either OEM's perspective, particularly if "2022-2023" shades into "2023."

The 777-8 EIS is expected in late 2021, presumably with Emirates as launch customer, and changes to the 777-8 for QF will be of the sort that don't require the sort of additional design effort that would delay an aircraft by years. Final design for the 777-8 is happening right now, and any MTOW increase or OEW reduction needed to meet QF's requirements is presumably being baked in. The 777X order book is not huge and is notable for having two large customers (Etihad and Qatar) for whom deferrals are likely to be valuable. By 2023 there is no question that the aircraft will be ready and slots will be there, and there is little reason for them to "cost a fortune" to Qantas.

The A350 is a bit more of a challenge for Airbus, but only a bit. All speculation seems to be that they are looking at a MTOW and effective fuel capacity increase (AFT?) for the -1000. Although it will require revisions to the basic -1000 design, none of that is unrealistic in five years from now and four years from the order date. The challenge is availability of slots, but again the A350 order book has customers who are likely to see deferrals as attractive. I feel almost certain there is a deal to be had out there for 2023 slots, and if there is one, Airbus's sales team will find it. No reason to soak Qantas, as that would just drive them to Boeing.

Second is the strategic point.

QF was brought to its knees by trying to compete head-on with Asian carriers on the strongest parts of their networks. To the extent it's staged an international recovery, it's been by focusing on things the Asian carriers can't do. The strategy you suggest leads only to brutal fare wars with LCCs whose labor costs are half of QF's. Instead, the airline is trying to leverage its geographical location and its decades of experience with ultra-long-haul to add value those LCCs can't match. And, judging by the fare premiums LHR-PER is commanding, it's succeeding more than expected. It would be baffling to reverse course on that. ULH requires a fare premium, but Qantas is better positioned than anyone else flying to Australia to get it. It's the only carrier outside the Middle East that can make a fleet of 20+ ULH aircraft work and the only carrier serving Australia for which it makes any sense to overfly Asia/Middle East and North America hubs. The more I watch the more the strategy starts to make sense.
 
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:39 pm

Richard28 wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
1. The PER-LHR route is going to suffer over this Northern winter.
Why? Because while QF has a large Australian customer base, I don't see many of them paying big money to fly to London and bare with the Londonian cold which this year started early. It's already freezing in London. Even less so from PER.


Which increases demand out of LHR heading to Australia, that's' when most of the British head south, i.e. Northern Winter.


Yes but it's leisure demand. They're not going to pay a premium for QF's PER service and even less so if their final destination in Australia is not PER.
I think that QF will have to decrease fares or risk flying PER-LHR during November-February with good fares but poor load factors, ie 50-60% in all classes.
 
Waterbomber
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Thu Nov 22, 2018 12:13 am

seabosdca wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
4. It's almost 2019 and making a decision at the end of 2019 for a 2022/2023 delivery of a special version of the A350/B777X with full order books seems a non-starter. Not only will those delivery slots cost QF a fortune, the tailored specs will come at a premium, even if they order an additional 20 copies for non-ULR operations.

5. By the end of 2019, the QF board is going to ditch this project and focus on Asia. PER-LHR becomes seasonal (Northern summer only).
A B787/A330NEO/A350 order will be announced.


I think both of these are disprovable.

First is the aircraft acquisition timeframe and cost. There is very little issue with that timeframe from either OEM's perspective, particularly if "2022-2023" shades into "2023."

The 777-8 EIS is expected in late 2021, presumably with Emirates as launch customer, and changes to the 777-8 for QF will be of the sort that don't require the sort of additional design effort that would delay an aircraft by years. Final design for the 777-8 is happening right now, and any MTOW increase or OEW reduction needed to meet QF's requirements is presumably being baked in. The 777X order book is not huge and is notable for having two large customers (Etihad and Qatar) for whom deferrals are likely to be valuable. By 2023 there is no question that the aircraft will be ready and slots will be there, and there is little reason for them to "cost a fortune" to Qantas.

The A350 is a bit more of a challenge for Airbus, but only a bit. All speculation seems to be that they are looking at a MTOW and effective fuel capacity increase (AFT?) for the -1000. Although it will require revisions to the basic -1000 design, none of that is unrealistic in five years from now and four years from the order date. The challenge is availability of slots, but again the A350 order book has customers who are likely to see deferrals as attractive. I feel almost certain there is a deal to be had out there for 2023 slots, and if there is one, Airbus's sales team will find it. No reason to soak Qantas, as that would just drive them to Boeing.

Second is the strategic point.

QF was brought to its knees by trying to compete head-on with Asian carriers on the strongest parts of their networks. To the extent it's staged an international recovery, it's been by focusing on things the Asian carriers can't do. The strategy you suggest leads only to brutal fare wars with LCCs whose labor costs are half of QF's. Instead, the airline is trying to leverage its geographical location and its decades of experience with ultra-long-haul to add value those LCCs can't match. And, judging by the fare premiums LHR-PER is commanding, it's succeeding more than expected. It would be baffling to reverse course on that. ULH requires a fare premium, but Qantas is better positioned than anyone else flying to Australia to get it. It's the only carrier outside the Middle East that can make a fleet of 20+ ULH aircraft work and the only carrier serving Australia for which it makes any sense to overfly Asia/Middle East and North America hubs. The more I watch the more the strategy starts to make sense.


First of all, you are following a wikipedia schedule.
The B777-9 has not even one completed airframe to roll out, let alone start ground testing on. When all is said and done, it won't fly in Q1 2019 but probably towards Q3 2019 with certification in late 2020 and EIS in early 2021.
20 deliveries in 2021, 40 deliveries in 2022.
That's if everything goes smoothly.
To do a daily MEL-LHR QF will need to have at least 3 airframes delivered and Boeing just can't reserve 5% of its 2021/2022 production capacity for QF when other customers will be waiting for delayed airframes.
Finally, considering the fact that QF will need the B777-8 variant, it's most unlikely that they will be able to start before the end of 2023, more realistically 2024.

If you look at the A350, you have a similar issue.
A lot of airlines are waiting for their copies of the A350, with a backlog of 10 years at the current production rate and tons of options.
Airbus has no room for QF until 2025, even if they ramp up production and convert some orders to A330neo.
Sure, there is room for a dozen airframes for project sunrise, but not for another 20 for the other routes that QF wants to operate long haul on. With full backlogs, Airbus has little incentive to be on newspapers even more.
And even if there are delivery slots, they're going to be super expensive. Add that to the tailored specs and you're looking at a 200 USD million per copy price tag.
That's too much no matter how much prestige is at play.
By the time QF gets a full line up of A350UULR's, say by 2025, the A350neo is launched, making the A350UULR obsolete.... Now that is smart??!

Airbus and Boeing will play along for the media attention. But they would be foolish to block any amount of early delivery positions when other carriers are already pushing for earlier delivery positions.


The second part of your argument isn't based on tangible evidence and contains many assumptions.
In the last decade QF retreated out of the Asian markets as did many Asian carriers. There was too much competition and too little margins.
This has improved lately thanks to a huge leisure demand from China, which is putting more weight on the demand side. This can be long lasting as a similar trend is observed in Europe and also intra-Asia, with carriers being opportunistic about it.

QF can compete or stay out of the Asian market.
But while they waste time and resources on their Sunrise project, they will see more and more Asian carriers flooding into their hubs with bigger and bigger equipment and start wondering what is going on. Around the time that it's too late, they will get widebodies to start competing. However, les jeux sont faits, it's too late.
I think that if fuel stays cheap, a probable assumption, the real risk is the short lead times for the A380 family... Chinese carriers will be very aggressive and could get A380's very quickly to expand and flood the markets.
QF can then rename it to project sunset, as they will be challenged on routes to Europe, Asia and the U.S. essentially ending up fighting to keep any amount of relevant international network.
Last edited by Waterbomber on Thu Nov 22, 2018 12:26 am, edited 3 times in total.
 
RickNRoll
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Thu Nov 22, 2018 12:19 am

qf789 wrote:
Qantas CEO Alan Joyce has dialed back on expectations for the Project Sunrise jet, being either the A350-1000 or 777X. Previously QF remained firm on carrying 300 passengers over 4 classes however that is no longer that expectation but the carrier says that the flights still remain commercially viable.

Qantas is expected to place an order for the aircraft by the end of next year for first delivery around the 2022-2023 timeframe

Qantas CEO Alan Joyce says the airline will choose between the Airbus A350-1000 and Boeing 777X within the next 12 months as partners in its non-stop Project Sunrise flights to London and New York.
However, regardless of the jet chosen to make those marathon 18-20 hour treks, there’s no longer an expectation that it will carry the airline’s previously-stated goal of 300+ passengers across four classes.
“Our belief is [ultra-long-haul flights are] not going to be full passenger payload and freight, but there is sufficient capability to make it commercially viable,” Qantas CEO Alan Joyce has told The South China Morning Post.


https://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-ceo-dia ... pectations


I think we all knew from the start that QANTAS wouldn't get it's wish list.
 
tealnz
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Sun Feb 03, 2019 4:01 pm

More on this in a radio interview https://tinyurl.com/ycnyrvkfJoyce gave on 22 January. Main points:

- confirmation both Airbus and Boeing have a suitable aircraft – "we think we can [fly the distance]"
- AJ expects to be able to take a full payload of passengers SYD-NYC
- the aircraft will be "a bit short" on payload for SYD/MEL-LHR
- but it will be economical, "so we can do it"
- planning a new first class product for the new fleet
- still working on facilities such as bar or creche or exercise area to take advantage of unused space (presumably in the hold)
- hopeful of a decision this year.

Joyce sounded confident it would all come together – no hint he thought the numbers might not add up. He pointed to continuing strong demand out of Perth, especially in business, to support his point. So what do we take from this?

- Time for the sceptics to accept it's going to happen. As a business model non-stop ULH is already paying off bigtime for QF. They have every reason to make it the pillar of their long-haul strategy.

- Sunrise will introduce a new ULH configuration: in contrast to what SQ have done with the 359ULR, it sounds as if QF are serious about making some use of hold space for eg exercise area or bar or creche. Given they won't be using the hold for any serious cargo loads on London or New York routes that makes sense so long as they can do it with minimal extra weight.

- There has to be a question about what they are looking at for premium seating. Are there any F and J options emerging that combine high comfort with lighter weight? (In particular, anything that takes a whole lot of weight out of the recline mechanism).

- There's the question of potential fleet size (some a.netters think the numbers will be so small as to be uneconomic). In fact Joyce has talked of multiple points of origin (Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in addition to Perth) and multiple destinations (in addition to London and New York he has mentioned Chicago and Rio/Sao Paulo, also Paris and Frankfurt though from memory the last two were in the context of Perth routes). Plus you'd have to assume they would look at putting the new aircraft on the DFW route in place of the A380s. So do the math. Even assuming they go to non-stop on just 10 of these routes you're looking at a fleet of 20+. Not to mention potential for another dozen if they switch to the same airframe in non-ULH configuration for SYD/MEL to North American west coast destinations. At those numbers it becomes an attractive sale for either Airbus or Boeing, even if the initial contract is a dozen plus options.

- We still lack any real insights into what Airbus and Boeing might be doing by way of airframe tweaks to meet the payload/range target. Has anyone picked up any clues? There are one or two obvious possibilities: additional tankage (but where/how/how much?); sealing the forward cargo hold, removing cargo handling mechanism as on the 359ULR... But what else?
 
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Sun Feb 03, 2019 4:18 pm

tealnz wrote:
- There has to be a question about what they are looking at for premium seating. Are there any F and J options emerging that combine high comfort with lighter weight? (In particular, anything that takes a whole lot of weight out of the recline mechanism).


Just reading quickly online, I see that Recaro state their business class seat is one of the lightest at 80kg per seat. Others weigh 100kg or more, according to them.

If they are planning to use the cargo hold space for something, why not put light weight first class and business class seats on the main deck for watching movies and eating, and put in light weight bunks in the cargo hold for people to go down and sleep. The only issue is whether standard seat plus bunk will weigh less and cost less than the usual all singing all dancing seats we currently see.

I'm very curious about both the aircraft they select, how it's modified in any way, and the Qantas configuration.
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Sun Feb 03, 2019 4:34 pm

The 777-8 brochure range is similar to SYD-NYC and A35K @ 316T is just 250nm shy although rumor is 319T is in the works which would have same range as 778. And these are in standard 2 class 365 seats config. No doubt QF would configure these with heavy premium seats and possibly with F so that means the pax count would probably be around 295-300 and that should be good enough for NYC. For SYD-LHR, they need to restrict payload to ~240 and possibly a couple of ACT would be needed.
 
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Sun Feb 03, 2019 5:10 pm

tealnz wrote:
- Time for the sceptics to accept it's going to happen. As a business model non-stop ULH is already paying off bigtime for QF. They have every reason to make it the pillar of their long-haul strategy.

I haven't been watching this space but I think this is a solid point. Not only are the numbers looking good so far, it also gives the brand a halo effect, in that it makes QF look forward-thinking and deeply engaged in pushing the state of the art forward along with the aircraft and engine manufacturers. It's hard to gain some degree of differentiation, but this is doing it.

Of course the skeptical point of view is to be careful of too much of a good thing becoming a bad thing. It works under current circumstances. The company needs to do a detailed risk analysis to understand what could go wrong if any of the underlying factors change.
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Sun Feb 03, 2019 7:44 pm

A minor prediction: there will never be any "exercise" area worthy of the name on an airliner. With exercise comes the need for a shower, and this is the last plane that would be carrying around excess water. Why not just give everyone what they truly want - more personal space? A small lounge would be useful along those lines. Something close to an exercise area would just be open flex space; could be used for a stretch or some yoga type silliness, prayer room, stand-up bar/lounge, etc. But please, no "exercise". Commercial flights are far too smelly already.
I didn't get a 'Harumph' outta that guy!
 
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Sun Feb 03, 2019 8:26 pm

Some open flex space/silly yoga space will sound pretty good to anyone on a SYD-LHR flight. As will a downstairs bar and a crèche. I haven’t heard any suggestion they’re thinking of a gym. :eyebrow:
Leave out the cargo floor and they might even come close to having some headroom.
 
Sydscott
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Sun Feb 03, 2019 9:23 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
A B787/A330NEO/A350 order will be announced.


Just giving my 2 cents here in that I think you'll see a B787 order anyway and that it'll likely be in the July 2019 to June 2020 period for the simple reasons that:

1) If QF and AA get clearance for their J/V I can see AA starting MEL service and QF taking the A380 off and replacing it with the 787. (So QF would have double daily LAX on some days out of MEL)
2) If QF plans on expanding PER - Europe any further they'll need more 787's;
3) To places like HKG and SIN, there is definitely a market for an aircraft with Premium Economy in. Since QF aren't fitting out the A330's with Premium Economy if they want to expand this further they'll need 787's;
4) They'll need some more just to ensure the integrity of their operations in case an aircraft goes tech. QF have pushed their current 787's to the max in terms of scheduling and they'll need a smidge more redundancy in there.

So all in all I think you'll see a topup 787 order regardless of what happens with Project Sunrise.
 
AsiaTravel
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Sun Feb 03, 2019 10:46 pm

Sydscott wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
A B787/A330NEO/A350 order will be announced.


Just giving my 2 cents here in that I think you'll see a B787 order anyway and that it'll likely be in the July 2019 to June 2020 period for the simple reasons that:

1) If QF and AA get clearance for their J/V I can see AA starting MEL service and QF taking the A380 off and replacing it with the 787. (So QF would have double daily LAX on some days out of MEL)


I do agree with an additional top-up order for the 787. However, I don't see the A380 going out of MEL-LAX anytime soon, LAX is the top first class destination for QF. It wouldn't make any sense to forgo this high-yield traffic.
I think we could see AA launching a daily flight and QF cancelling the 2 weekly 789 and increasing SFO to daily.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Sun Feb 03, 2019 10:59 pm

tealnz wrote:
- There's the question of potential fleet size (some a.netters think the numbers will be so small as to be uneconomic). In fact Joyce has talked of multiple points of origin (Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in addition to Perth) and multiple destinations (in addition to London and New York he has mentioned Chicago and Rio/Sao Paulo, also Paris and Frankfurt though from memory the last two were in the context of Perth routes). Plus you'd have to assume they would look at putting the new aircraft on the DFW route in place of the A380s. So do the math. Even assuming they go to non-stop on just 10 of these routes you're looking at a fleet of 20+. Not to mention potential for another dozen if they switch to the same airframe in non-ULH configuration for SYD/MEL to North American west coast destinations. At those numbers it becomes an attractive sale for either Airbus or Boeing, even if the initial contract is a dozen plus options.4


You've made a good point, IMO. Moreover, any ULH is going to require 3 aircraft minimum; if there are a few routes, that adds up quickly. In addition, hypothetically, if its the 77X, QF can acquire "regular" 778s or 779s in order to spread economies of scale, even if there is an ULH-configured subfleet.
 
kaitak
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Mon Feb 04, 2019 5:56 am

Sydscott wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
A B787/A330NEO/A350 order will be announced.


Just giving my 2 cents here in that I think you'll see a B787 order anyway and that it'll likely be in the July 2019 to June 2020 period for the simple reasons that:

1) If QF and AA get clearance for their J/V I can see AA starting MEL service and QF taking the A380 off and replacing it with the 787. (So QF would have double daily LAX on some days out of MEL)
2) If QF plans on expanding PER - Europe any further they'll need more 787's;
3) To places like HKG and SIN, there is definitely a market for an aircraft with Premium Economy in. Since QF aren't fitting out the A330's with Premium Economy if they want to expand this further they'll need 787's;
4) They'll need some more just to ensure the integrity of their operations in case an aircraft goes tech. QF have pushed their current 787's to the max in terms of scheduling and they'll need a smidge more redundancy in there.

So all in all I think you'll see a topup 787 order regardless of what happens with Project Sunrise.


I would agree with that; in fact, I could see the 787 being ordered as an A330 replacement; the 787 can do pretty much what the 330 does - and a lot more. Reducing the number of types makes sense; I could see more 789s for the ULR routes (and perhaps some Asian routes), -10s for high density Asian routes and perhaps derated/reduced MTOW -9s for domestic and NZ routes.

With an inceased 787 fleet, I see it as increasingly unlikely that the A350ULR/35K could win over the 778/779 combination, especially if QF sees the 779 as a viable 388 replacement. On top of that, there's the issue of the 737 fleet replacement - much more likely Max than Neo.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:20 am

In the end QF could be going all Boeing. 777 - 787 - 797 - 737MAX. There is nothing that could beat this line-up.
 
Ruscoe
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:49 am

I smell a MTOW increase for the 789 & 10 coming, 265T.

Ruscoe
 
smi0006
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:02 am

sabby wrote:
The 777-8 brochure range is similar to SYD-NYC and A35K @ 316T is just 250nm shy although rumor is 319T is in the works which would have same range as 778. And these are in standard 2 class 365 seats config. No doubt QF would configure these with heavy premium seats and possibly with F so that means the pax count would probably be around 295-300 and that should be good enough for NYC. For SYD-LHR, they need to restrict payload to ~240 and possibly a couple of ACT would be needed.


How economical would the 779 and 35J be comparatively on SYD/MEL-LAX/HKG/SIN? I think the larger variant will eventually replace the 380 for key high volume trunk routes.

I still think it’s anyone’s game, with many smaller fleets in the mix, pricing and deals will be key- not simply performance targets
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:13 am

zululima wrote:
A minor prediction: there will never be any "exercise" area worthy of the name on an airliner.

Something close to an exercise area would just be open flex space

That's almost certainly what he meant. There's no way in hell they were going to offer freeweights and gym equipment on a flight like this.
Probably be just an area where you can spread a mat and touch your toes, or whatever.



Ruscoe wrote:
I smell a MTOW increase for the 789 & 10 coming, 265T.

Probably not without significant gear modification.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Mon Feb 04, 2019 9:04 am

seahawk wrote:
In the end QF could be going all Boeing. 777 - 787 - 797 - 737MAX. There is nothing that could beat this line-up.


I could be wrong but I believe I recall Qantas wanting to maintain a half and half fleet of Airbus and Boeing.
Anyone who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new.
 
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Mon Feb 04, 2019 9:44 am

LoganTheBogan wrote:
seahawk wrote:
In the end QF could be going all Boeing. 777 - 787 - 797 - 737MAX. There is nothing that could beat this line-up.


I could be wrong but I believe I recall Qantas wanting to maintain a half and half fleet of Airbus and Boeing.


Don't think that has ever been said, but none the less, there are plenty of 320's in the various Jetstar fleets.

I think the present decision could go either way, but personally I think the 778/779 combo would be a better choice. As for the narrow body fleet in the future, I think a lot will depend on what the 797 ends up being. If it is suited to the QF network and needs, then I think they'll go MAX, if it doesn't fit well enough, then QF may well go 320/321LR.
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:13 am

zululima wrote:
A minor prediction: there will never be any "exercise" area worthy of the name on an airliner. With exercise comes the need for a shower, and this is the last plane that would be carrying around excess water. Why not just give everyone what they truly want - more personal space? A small lounge would be useful along those lines. Something close to an exercise area would just be open flex space; could be used for a stretch or some yoga type silliness, prayer room, stand-up bar/lounge, etc. But please, no "exercise". Commercial flights are far too smelly already.


For sure it'll be open flex space, because that doesn't weigh anything! I'd use the space in a heartbeat. Moving around and stretching feels great for 10 minutes before it's back to the seat, so for sure this is what it will be, at most.
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
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keesje
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:30 am

Realistically I think Qanats very much is looking at a good A350-1000 deal and will would accept an A350-900 ULR version for the SunRise niche. Even though they would like more space / capacity (-1000) for those flights. There is only so much that Airbus, Boeing and Qantas would be ready to invest for the relative small ULH segment.

You could imagine using the A350-1000 wings, engines and landing gear combined with a fuselage of the 350-900, similar to the 777-200LR / 777-8. I doubt either Qantas or Airbus would be willing to pick up the ticket for such 10.000Nm + project.

Image

The business case for a real XLR would require high aircraft pricing to cover costs and the aircraft would be expensive & heavy for all but those ULH flights; low network flexibility, similar to e.g. the A340-500.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
AsiaTravel
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:57 am

keesje wrote:
Realistically I think Qanats very much is looking at a good A350-1000 deal and will would accept an A350-900 ULR version for the SunRise niche. Even though they would like more space / capacity (-1000) for those flights. There is only so much that Airbus, Boeing and Qantas would be ready to invest for the relative small ULH segment.

You could imagine using the A350-1000 wings, engines and landing gear combined with a fuselage of the 350-900, similar to the 777-200LR / 777-8. I doubt either Qantas or Airbus would be willing to pick up the ticket for such 10.000Nm + project.

The business case for a real XLR would require high aircraft pricing to cover costs and the aircraft would be expensive & heavy for all but those ULH flights; low network flexibility, similar to e.g. the A340-500.



If Airbus can sell a cargo version of the above proposal then I could see a case, much like the 77L.
 
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Mon Feb 04, 2019 2:31 pm

kaitak wrote:
I could see more 789s for the ULR routes

But geography... The 789 is at its limits with 235 pax on PER-LHR. UA gave up on LAX-SIN. NZ are blocking seats westbound on ORD-AKL. The 789 can't match the A350 at these ranges. We might see the 789 still used for route-proving but ULH is basically going to be for the new Sunrise fleet.

kaitak wrote:
-10s for high density Asian routes

Yep, makes much more sense

kaitak wrote:
and perhaps derated/reduced MTOW -9s for domestic and NZ routes.

Heavy and pricey. Better to wait for the 797.

kaitak wrote:
With an increased 787 fleet, I see it as increasingly unlikely that the A350ULR/35K could win over the 778/779 combination

Little problem: Joyce is clear the first decision is going to be the Sunrise fleet. So will Boeing get lucky? There's that little matter of all the extra OEW the 778 is carrying...

seahawk wrote:
In the end QF could be going all Boeing. 777 - 787 - 797 - 737MAX. There is nothing that could beat this line-up.

Smart airlines try to keep both OEMs hungry.

Ruscoe wrote:
I smell a MTOW increase for the 789 & 10 coming, 265T.

There's no evidence the board are ready to invest 77X-type $$ to rework the wing and gear. And there's no engine. 797 is their next development effort. And why would they bother right now? 787 is selling like hotcakes as is.
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Mon Feb 04, 2019 2:55 pm

tealnz wrote:
Little problem: Joyce is clear the first decision is going to be the Sunrise fleet. So will Boeing get lucky? There's that little matter of all the extra OEW the 778 is carrying...


If it translates to better economics for Qantas in fuel uplift and range, then it doesn't really matter. It's all down to the Qantas maths at the end of the day.
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
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keesje
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Mon Feb 04, 2019 4:42 pm

ClassicLover wrote:
tealnz wrote:
Little problem: Joyce is clear the first decision is going to be the Sunrise fleet. So will Boeing get lucky? There's that little matter of all the extra OEW the 778 is carrying...


If it translates to better economics for Qantas in fuel uplift and range, then it doesn't really matter. It's all down to the Qantas maths at the end of the day.


Apparently the 777X heavy empty weights didn't escape his attention..

Joyce said Qantas was seeking more details from Boeing on the weight of the 777-8, which has not yet entered production, but added he was confident both manufacturers could meet the range challenges.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/qantas-results-airbus/qantas-eyes-larger-airbus-a350-jet-for-sydney-london-flights-ceo-idUKL3N1VE2SG

Slight differences in empty weight can be compensated with payload capability, efficiency. But maybe 25t doesn't fit the "slight" threshold.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Mon Feb 04, 2019 5:21 pm

keesje wrote:
Slight differences in empty weight can be compensated with payload capability, efficiency. But maybe 25t doesn't fit the "slight" threshold.


I agree with you there. It will be interesting once the 777X takes to the air, whether it will meet it's spec, though Boeing do have form in this area of generally beating it.
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
tealnz
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:16 pm

Where do you get your numbers? Joyce seems to think both aircraft can do NYC with full pax, a bit less than full pax for SYD-LHR. No hint that one OEM is struggling on range. QF have just been through a detailed and iterative RFI process with both manufacturers. I’d take Joyce’s comments at face value if I were you. Key outstanding questions seem to be whether the A35K will need hold tanks and the 778 MEW.
 
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Mon Feb 04, 2019 8:14 pm

We are talking about 777X which haven't even done test flight and A35K which is barely a year after EIS doing ~7100nm (HKG-IAD) - far from it's extreme range. If we want to talk about real world performance and evidence for doing those routes, we may as well lock this thread and wait till Mr. Joyce announces the order or even better till the flights actually take place !!
 
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:27 pm

Brochure ranges do give you one data point. They are typically accurate given the OEW and the reference passenger capacity (and thus payload) that the manufacturer claims. But then you have to figure out whether the claimed OEW is at all reflective of real-world configurations and whether the operator you're interested in needs more or less payload than the reference passenger capacity. In the old days, you could count on Boeing using an OEW that reflected the most bare-bones configuration in which the airliner could physically seat the reference passenger capacity. Now they have revised their numbers to reflect today's products, which took 1 to 1.5 hours (more than 2 hours in the 77L's case) off the brochure range for the widebodies. Airbus was more realistic than Boeing in the old days, but hasn't changed their formula, with the result that Airbus's brochure range for widebodies is now a bit more optimistic than Boeing's.

But posters here are taking that kernel of truth and spinning it into claims that Airbus brochure ranges have nothing to do with reality, and that's just wrong. Claims that the A350 is hobbled keep echoing through the forum, belied every day by actual A350 ops without restrictions on 7000 + nm routes.

I continue to think that the big question here is whether Airbus can boost A350 weights enough to make the payloads Joyce wants possible. If they can (and Joyce's statement seems to hint they can), then I think this is Airbus's order to lose. But if the 778 can maintain a substantial payload advantage over the 35K on these ULH-plus sectors then its higher empty weight might be worth it.
 
Sydscott
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:56 pm

kaitak wrote:
Sydscott wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
A B787/A330NEO/A350 order will be announced.


Just giving my 2 cents here in that I think you'll see a B787 order anyway and that it'll likely be in the July 2019 to June 2020 period for the simple reasons that:

1) If QF and AA get clearance for their J/V I can see AA starting MEL service and QF taking the A380 off and replacing it with the 787. (So QF would have double daily LAX on some days out of MEL)
2) If QF plans on expanding PER - Europe any further they'll need more 787's;
3) To places like HKG and SIN, there is definitely a market for an aircraft with Premium Economy in. Since QF aren't fitting out the A330's with Premium Economy if they want to expand this further they'll need 787's;
4) They'll need some more just to ensure the integrity of their operations in case an aircraft goes tech. QF have pushed their current 787's to the max in terms of scheduling and they'll need a smidge more redundancy in there.

So all in all I think you'll see a topup 787 order regardless of what happens with Project Sunrise.


I would agree with that; in fact, I could see the 787 being ordered as an A330 replacement; the 787 can do pretty much what the 330 does - and a lot more. Reducing the number of types makes sense; I could see more 789s for the ULR routes (and perhaps some Asian routes), -10s for high density Asian routes and perhaps derated/reduced MTOW -9s for domestic and NZ routes.

With an inceased 787 fleet, I see it as increasingly unlikely that the A350ULR/35K could win over the 778/779 combination, especially if QF sees the 779 as a viable 388 replacement. On top of that, there's the issue of the 737 fleet replacement - much more likely Max than Neo.


In relation to A330 retirement and 737 replacement, I think QF is waiting to see where Boeings new midsize airplane lands before they decide on either of those. The upgraded A330's and the wifi equipped 737's are still pretty young and have lots of years left in them. But depending on the specs of the midsize aircraft, if QF were to order those then they would replace some of both of the 737's and A330's. So I think we'll see QF wait it out before deciding on the A330 and 737 replacement aircraft.

But I agree that either way we will see more 787's in QF colours, it's merely a matter of timing.

On project sunrise, it'll be interesting to see which way QF goes. At the moment I see Airbus have a slight advantage because QF can see the A350ULR's in service and can get first hand accounts, rather than theoretical ones, of how they work / fly / perform. I'd be surprised if QF made a decision on project sunrise prior to them seeing the 77X actually fly.
 
YYZatcboy
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Tue Feb 05, 2019 3:03 am

Don't forget the A380 deposits. They already have money sitting at AIB. Now that AIB seems to want to shut down the A380 line, perhaps they might go to QF with a good deal on A350s, for the same reasons speculated in the A380 thread. Of course, that could also translate into an A32xNEO order for either QF or JQ too, but given the age of those airplanes and the time request for Sunrise, I think the odds are more in the A350's favour if QF were to use the A380 deposits.
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Re: Qantas CEO dials back on expectations for Project Sunrise Jet

Tue Feb 05, 2019 3:16 am

seabosdca wrote:
Brochure ranges do give you one data point. They are typically accurate given the OEW and the reference passenger capacity (and thus payload) that the manufacturer claims. But then you have to figure out whether the claimed OEW is at all reflective of real-world configurations and whether the operator you're interested in needs more or less payload than the reference passenger capacity. In the old days, you could count on Boeing using an OEW that reflected the most bare-bones configuration in which the airliner could physically seat the reference passenger capacity. Now they have revised their numbers to reflect today's products, which took 1 to 1.5 hours (more than 2 hours in the 77L's case) off the brochure range for the widebodies. Airbus was more realistic than Boeing in the old days, but hasn't changed their formula, with the result that Airbus's brochure range for widebodies is now a bit more optimistic than Boeing's.

But posters here are taking that kernel of truth and spinning it into claims that Airbus brochure ranges have nothing to do with reality, and that's just wrong. Claims that the A350 is hobbled keep echoing through the forum, belied every day by actual A350 ops without restrictions on 7000 + nm routes.

I continue to think that the big question here is whether Airbus can boost A350 weights enough to make the payloads Joyce wants possible. If they can (and Joyce's statement seems to hint they can), then I think this is Airbus's order to lose. But if the 778 can maintain a substantial payload advantage over the 35K on these ULH-plus sectors then its higher empty weight might be worth it.


Very well written. In reality, much will depend on how well 778 aerodynamics goes (underside laminar is tricky), engine performance (GE-9X pulled out all the stops), and actual empty weight (Boeing tends to be conservative, but really missed on the 788).

QF will negotiate to the end. A facinating deal.

Lightsaber

Ps (late edit):
I didn't mention A350 as it is now a known entity with low risk PIPs for this order.
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