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Dutchy
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Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:59 am

Didn't see this mentioned anywhere. Some key points:
> Air France to reduce their fleet of A380's from the current 10 to 5.
> 5 are leased and they are set to go. The lease will end for 2 at the end of 2019 and will not be renewed
> 5 owned examples will be refurbished at the end of 2020
> 5 owned examples will be kept because it has been found hard to find a new owner, the second-hand market seems to be very challenging.

sourece
Last edited by atcsundevil on Fri Nov 23, 2018 6:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Title edited
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spinkid
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 9:02 am

I wonder how many Hi-Fly will ultimately want. It looks like there will be plenty of opportunities for them to pick them up second in the near future.
 
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SR380
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 9:24 am

Is there any routes on the AF network that needed such a giant, except maybe JFK? How is LAX or JNB doing?

I get why airlines such as BA and LH bought it in Europe, due to their congested respective hubs. Is CDG in the same situation?

Will those 5 frames end up like the ones of SQ?
 
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 9:32 am

SR380 wrote:
How is LAX or JNB doing?

Depending on the day, LAX receives an A388+77W+77E from AF, and that's while taking into account the capacity of 4 other airlines flying LAX-CDG.

...so while capacity doesn't equate to yields, they presumably can't be doing THAT bad, if they're still deciding to send it here despite all that capacity.



SR380 wrote:
Is CDG in the same situation?

No
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
stylo777
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 10:15 am

which routes are currently served by AF 380s`?
 
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Boair
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 10:22 am

stylo777 wrote:
which routes are currently served by AF 380s`?


JFK, LAX, JNB, MEX, ABJ, PVG year round and MIA/SFO seasonally
A313 A318 A319 A320 A321 A21N A330 A343 A380 B734 B73H B738 B744 B752 B763 B77E B77W B788 B789 AT72 DH8D MD88 E145 E175 E190 IL96 F100 PC6 PA28
 
Waterbomber
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 10:29 am

It makes sense if the lease rates are too high and the lessor didn't offer AF a good enough deal to renew.
AF also have the option to buy them from the lessor.
But that will be for the next CEO to negotiate, it doesn't hurt for the interim CEO to put pressure on the lessor.

I'll believe it when these birds are stripped of their liveries.
 
716131
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 10:47 am

And the source in French is now official:

https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-servi ... 224287.php

Cannot found the source yet in English at this time.
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Bricktop
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 11:06 am

Waterbomber wrote:
It makes sense if the lease rates are too high and the lessor didn't offer AF a good enough deal to renew.
AF also have the option to buy them from the lessor.
But that will be for the next CEO to negotiate, it doesn't hurt for the interim CEO to put pressure on the lessor.

I'll believe it when these birds are stripped of their liveries.

I agree with this. Some smart gamesmanship by AF, given that the A380 aftermarket is not established and the world economy isn't that great.
 
canmau
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 11:08 am

Any chance BA or LH would consider picking these frames up? Lufthansa has been shuffling around 5 of their A380s between FRA and MUC during the summer season, maybe with these aircraft they could keep their FRA A380 flights that they had previously and their new flights at MUC?
 
FlySSC
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 11:13 am

Boair wrote:
stylo777 wrote:
which routes are currently served by AF 380s`?


JFK, LAX, JNB, MEX, ABJ, PVG year round and MIA/SFO seasonally


Add IAD to the list.
 
FlySSC
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 11:17 am

This is not really a surprise. It’s not a secret for anyone that Air France has never been very happy to operate the « Mister Potatoe » plane, as they call it.
The 5 remaining aircraft will probably continue to serve JFK and LAX, the only real routes appropriate for the A380 at AF.
It will be removed from JNB soon and redeployed to ATL starting next summer schedule.
 
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 11:25 am

canmau wrote:
Any chance BA or LH would consider picking these frames up? Lufthansa has been shuffling around 5 of their A380s between FRA and MUC during the summer season, maybe with these aircraft they could keep their FRA A380 flights that they had previously and their new flights at MUC?


Wasnt the sole Reason for LH to shuffle some of the A380's an increased Premium Demand in MUC as opposed to FRA ?
If im not mistaken, they switched over some of the lesser Premium configured A346 for the 380's to FRA.

I just cant see any demand for LH for additional A380's in the upcoming Years, ontop of that comes that LH's A380s are equipped with the RR Trent 970 while the AF A380's are equipped with EA GP7000 Engines.
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 11:26 am

Wow, now I am understand why all the people are talking about „Black Friday“...

Seriously, once implemented AF will have less A380s than TG and the same number of airframes as CZ. They once had 12 A380s on order but cancelled two airframes and will end up with just five A380‘s. Wow...
 
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 11:55 am

placeholder wrote:
Wasnt the sole Reason for LH to shuffle some of the A380's an increased Premium Demand in MUC as opposed to FRA ?
If im not mistaken, they switched over some of the lesser Premium configured A346 for the 380's to FRA.


I wouldn't call it the sole reason. Lufthansa has been expanding generally from Munich, especially on long-haul operations, with frequency increases to destinations like ORD and new flights from MUC with the A350 to BKK and SIN. Additionally, Lufthansa had a dispute with Fraport on the time of the initial switch of the A380s, which factored into the decision as well. LH also has more space to expand from MUC with the new satellite terminal than from FRA, however, with the first phases of terminal 3 opening in 5 years or so, they will likely have more opportunity from FRA as well.

placeholder wrote:
I just cant see any demand for LH for additional A380's in the upcoming Years, ontop of that comes that LH's A380s are equipped with the RR Trent 970 while the AF A380's are equipped with EA GP7000 Engines.


I wasn't aware of that, that's a good point. I know LH operates multiple engine types for their A320 family and on the A330s as well, if you count other LH Group airlines, but I wonder whether they'd be willing to do that for a smaller fleet of A380s.
 
crownvic
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 12:10 pm

My question...Is it not feasible for someone to come up with a plan and offer discounted service between high density markets like either JFK/EWR to MIA/MCO or NYC/LAS with an A380?
These flights are consistently sold out with mostly single aisle aircraft. Would a $99 airfare fill up an A380? People Express did it in the 80's with 747's to Europe..
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 12:16 pm

Could AF possibly look at new build A380s?

They could easily fill them on routes to LAX and such, displacing the older 77W's. Might hinge on the engines - if GP7200 isn't available, then the Rollers may suffice - in part due to their A359s.

(When are they due btw??)
 
GRJGeorge
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 1:02 pm

It's already removed from schedules on CDG-JNB from NS19, when frequency changes from 7 weekly (NS was 4 x A380, 3 x 77W) to 10 weekly (daily 77W + 3 weekly 789)
 
Cointrin330
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 1:04 pm

Air France never had the network to support A380 operations. This was a vanity purchase directed by the French Government to support Airbus as well as French and European manufacturers that supply parts for the A380. The good news here is that the move does point to AF finally getting serious about addressing its structural issues.
 
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 1:21 pm

Once airports really get congested, then the airlines will know the power and efficiency of the A380.
It's just that no airport is even remotely close to that level yet.
Oh, and as air travel becomes more affordable, that's when the A380 will start to make more sense too.
I think the A380 came a little bit too early.
To me, it will always be:
- Bombardier CSeries
- Airbus A321neoLR and A321neoXLR
- EMBRACER ERJ-170, ERJ-175, ERJ-190, and ERJ-195
- MITSUBUSHI MRJ

Anti narrowbody-long range-twinjet gang. Long live the A380 and 747!
 
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 1:25 pm

crownvic wrote:
My question...Is it not feasible for someone to come up with a plan and offer discounted service between high density markets like either JFK/EWR to MIA/MCO or NYC/LAS with an A380?
These flights are consistently sold out with mostly single aisle aircraft. Would a $99 airfare fill up an A380? People Express did it in the 80's with 747's to Europe..

$99 was worth a lot more back then. And by which airline? No US airline (and only two at that) have anything as large as a B77W. A startup business plan would be laughed out of the room. IAC, I don't think EWR is A380-capable for something like that, maybe as a daily one-off and LGA certainly isn't. That leaves JFK, and the economics are certainly questionable.

That's not to say that there aren't some parts of the world where it could happen, but there's no evidence of it happening. The only A380's on the secondary market at the moment are the old early build SQ frames, and the yawns from the marketplace were very loud. It would be very interesting if these frames actually came to market, but as I said above I think it's a shrewd play by AF to squeeze the lessor.
 
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 1:36 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
It makes sense if the lease rates are too high and the lessor didn't offer AF a good enough deal to renew.
AF also have the option to buy them from the lessor.
But that will be for the next CEO to negotiate, it doesn't hurt for the interim CEO to put pressure on the lessor.

I'll believe it when these birds are stripped of their liveries.



Air France-KLM has there new CEO and his job is to get to this airline better situated . Good move on reducing the fleet.
 
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 1:38 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
Air France never had the network to support A380 operations. This was a vanity purchase directed by the French Government to support Airbus as well as French and European manufacturers that supply parts for the A380.

A certain Southeast Asian airline comes to mind. Well, actually, two. The well-known mismanager of A380s, which should never have been bought by that airline in the first place, and the mismanager of aircraft types in general, buying a little of everything.
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 1:38 pm

canmau wrote:
Any chance BA or LH would consider picking these frames up? Lufthansa has been shuffling around 5 of their A380s between FRA and MUC during the summer season, maybe with these aircraft they could keep their FRA A380 flights that they had previously and their new flights at MUC?


Wrong engines, BA use Rollers.
 
TMccrury
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 1:53 pm

Boair wrote:
stylo777 wrote:
which routes are currently served by AF 380s`?


JFK, LAX, JNB, MEX, ABJ, PVG year round and MIA/SFO seasonally



IAD also gets an A380 seasonally. Last June, I was on the first one out of IAD to CDG and the same on the return.
 
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FlyRow
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 1:54 pm

And before anyone asks: KLM has announced they are not interested in taking over secondhand A380's.
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 1:55 pm

Arion640 wrote:
canmau wrote:
Any chance BA or LH would consider picking these frames up? Lufthansa has been shuffling around 5 of their A380s between FRA and MUC during the summer season, maybe with these aircraft they could keep their FRA A380 flights that they had previously and their new flights at MUC?


Wrong engines, BA use Rollers.


So do LH
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 2:16 pm

crownvic wrote:
My question...Is it not feasible for someone to come up with a plan and offer discounted service between high density markets like either JFK/EWR to MIA/MCO or NYC/LAS with an A380?


I don't know about feasibility, but I can observe that both DL and UA have a few high density widebodies that don't fly those routes. NYC-Florida sees high frequency -- it's offering schedule convenience (on a relatively short route) as much as capacity that sets that.
 
twicearound
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 2:17 pm

crownvic wrote:
My question...Is it not feasible for someone to come up with a plan and offer discounted service between high density markets like either JFK/EWR to MIA/MCO or NYC/LAS with an A380?
These flights are consistently sold out with mostly single aisle aircraft. Would a $99 airfare fill up an A380? People Express did it in the 80's with 747's to Europe..


And where is People Express today?
That model has shown itself unsustainable TIME and AGAIN
 
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SuseJ772
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 2:20 pm

I always wondered why they didn’t put it in a ATL route. You think the SkyTeam connections could fill it and with not necessarily crap yields.
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gunnerman
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 2:22 pm

Arion640 wrote:
canmau wrote:
Any chance BA or LH would consider picking these frames up? Lufthansa has been shuffling around 5 of their A380s between FRA and MUC during the summer season, maybe with these aircraft they could keep their FRA A380 flights that they had previously and their new flights at MUC?


Wrong engines, BA use Rollers.

It all depends on the price. If it's low enough, BA could handle this in the same way as BA maintains RR and GE engines for its 777 fleet.
 
twicearound
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 2:23 pm

FlightLevel360 wrote:
Once airports really get congested, then the airlines will know the power and efficiency of the A380.
It's just that no airport is even remotely close to that level yet.
Oh, and as air travel becomes more affordable, that's when the A380 will start to make more sense too.
I think the A380 came a little bit too early.


How much more affordable does air travel need to be? Low end ticket fares between most city pairs aren't worth the paper the boarding pass is printed on. Air fares have never been cheaper and more fragmented by service class or fare bucket. The legacies are losing money on many tickets just to remain competitive. It's been argued by many travel insiders and failed business models that it's become TOO affordable already.
 
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 2:24 pm

So with those 5 Frames coming available on the second Hand Market who could be interested ?
If we take into Account that AF ordered the A380 with the GP7000 and only KE,EY, QR and some of the EK A380's are equipped with the same Engines it gets tight with Operators maybe interested in taking them over.
Hi-Fly might be an Option but 5 Frames at once might be a bit to much even for them, my guess is that atleast some of the 5 Frames will end up in the Desert either Stored or being parted out for existing Fleets, just shows how narrow the Operational Frame for the A380 is. Its a great Aircraft no doubt, but it might be just to much Plane for most of the considerable Second Hand Operators.
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3BNBE
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 2:26 pm

Air France no longer flies its A380 to JNB. It previously operated 3/4 weekly flights with an A380, but changed schedule to 7 weekly flights by B77W and 3 weekly by B789 as from next year(northern summer)
 
fcogafa
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 2:50 pm

Those going on about who could acquire the aircraft should read the article - no parties want them....:

===============
(Google translate)
The fact that Air France is holding on to five super jumbo's for the time being, according to the newspaper, also has to do with the fact that there are no parties to take over the coffins. For some of the phase-apart A380s from Singapore Airlines, no new owner could be found recently.
===============
 
BlueberryWheats
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 2:55 pm

Halving their fleet, eh?

Easy, just get a blowtorch and whittle those A380's down into A340's. :lol:
The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut.
 
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flee
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 3:11 pm

I wonder why cruise ship operators don't lease them for their fly-cruise operations?
 
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 3:14 pm

Perhaps Turkish is interested in operating these 2nd hand A380s from Istanbul New Airport?
 
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 3:16 pm

fcogafa wrote:
===============
(Google translate)
The fact that Air France is holding on to five super jumbo's for the time being, according to the newspaper, also has to do with the fact that there are no parties to take over the coffins. For some of the phase-apart A380s from Singapore Airlines, no new owner could be found recently.
===============


Thanks for pointing that out, guess i have overseen that in the Moment :)
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parapente
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 3:26 pm

Since it's been established by the CEO of Qantas that the latest carbon twins are just as efficient as the A380 why on Earth would anybody buy / risk using the A380 unless - they can see a solid long term 80% load factor ( whatever seating).Clearly if someone could - with the v low ownership price ,then they would consider it.But who on Earth would that be?can't think of anybody.And at present the answer seems to be exactly that - nobody.Its a story that is going to explode in a couple of years time when huge amounts of A380 leases come in.Lots of coke cans.
 
bravoindia
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 3:30 pm

SuseJ772 wrote:
I always wondered why they didn’t put it in a ATL route. You think the SkyTeam connections could fill it and with not necessarily crap yields.



AF starts the A388 to ATL March 2019
 
marcelh
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 3:32 pm

parapente wrote:
Since it's been established by the CEO of Qantas that the latest carbon twins are just as efficient as the A380 why on Earth would anybody buy / risk using the A380 unless - they can see a solid long term 80% load factor ( whatever seating).Clearly if someone could - with the v low ownership price ,then they would consider it.But who on Earth would that be?can't think of anybody.And at present the answer seems to be exactly that - nobody.Its a story that is going to explode in a couple of years time when huge amounts of A380 leases come in.Lots of coke cans.

Emirates
 
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Slash787
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 3:40 pm

I flew on the AF A380 last week from JFK to CDG, I know they will keep this route, but sad to see the birds go.
 
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eta unknown
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 3:44 pm

I recall reading a few years ago AF publicly stated they wished they had never bought the A380's- too big for their type of operation.
 
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 3:48 pm

The brutal fact is the only airline that can effectively utilize the A380 is EK. And why is that? Everyone says that there are other things besides CASM to consider, but that does not contradict the fact that most airlines will make the most money on a given route by flying the plane that offers the best CASM that is capable of flying the route. In the past that has usually been the largest plane available, and the only reason for selecting something smaller was the inability to fill the largest one consistently. But this is no longer true, as the A380 is no longer the plane offering the best CASM. The 77W is close, but the 787 and A350 beat it, as will the 77X. And even if you can fill an A380, you will probably make more money by leaving the economy passengers behind and flying more premium fares in a smaller plane. So why does the A380 work for EK and nobody else? An accident of geography. EK’s home base is ideally situated centrally to many of the world’s most frequent destinations, and due to its structure, organization, and geography is able to profitably offer better fares than most airlines on more long haul flights than any one else. And due to the fact that all of these flights must pass through a single airport that is bursting at the seams EK can make more money flying the biggest plane they can get even if others may offer slightly better CASM. And that is why they will continue using them until the efficiency gap becomes too big, and the 77X or another large twin comes along and allows them to make more money flying fewer passengers. The point is that EK presently can fill just about every seat it can offer, and unless that changes their strategy won’t.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 3:51 pm

Dutchy wrote:
> 5 are leased and they are set to go. The lease will end for 2 at the end of 2019 and will not be renewed
> 5 owned examples will be refurbished at the end of 2020
> 5 owned examples will be kept because it has been found hard to find a new owner, the second-hand market seems to be very challenging.

sourece

Getting rid of leased is why airlines lease, fleet flexibility.

The question is, is this a bluff or are the routes better off at a lower CASK/smaller gauge?
If this is public, I doubt it is a negotiating tactic.

So... How big can HiFly grow their fleet? ;)


BlueberryWheats wrote:
Halving their fleet, eh?

Easy, just get a blowtorch and whittle those A380's down into A340's. :lol:

Nyet my compadre, they will create A330s, a true half A380. :duck: :flamed:

Slash787 wrote:
I flew on the AF A380 last week from JFK to CDG, I know they will keep this route, but sad to see the birds go.

As an enthusiast, I first want airlines to thrive to have the funds to expand. If the A380 isn't profitable enough, it is time to return them.

The A380 also requires connections to help fill it. The point of large gauge is the extra seats are so cheap one can seed new routes with connections. However, CDG still lacks a great connecting terminal. Meh... Their choice.

Lightsaber
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 4:01 pm

eta unknown wrote:
I recall reading a few years ago AF publicly stated they wished they had never bought the A380's- too big for their type of operation.


Don't tell that to Airbus, as they believe that the 380 is the perfect plane for high volume, long haul hub to hub markets. Airbus believes that if an airline can't make it work, it is no reflection on their product. Surely it surely must be the airline's fault.
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Arion640
Posts: 3076
Joined: Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:15 pm

Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 4:03 pm

gunnerman wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
canmau wrote:
Any chance BA or LH would consider picking these frames up? Lufthansa has been shuffling around 5 of their A380s between FRA and MUC during the summer season, maybe with these aircraft they could keep their FRA A380 flights that they had previously and their new flights at MUC?


Wrong engines, BA use Rollers.

It all depends on the price. If it's low enough, BA could handle this in the same way as BA maintains RR and GE engines for its 777 fleet.


In the 90’s BA got 5 odd ball 747’s from the BCAL takeover with Pratt or GE engines, I can’t remember which. At the time BA was operating a huge amount of 747’s and these ex BCAL models were gone within a year.

The GE and RR fleets engined 777 are both large enough to maintain dual engine types. I just don’t think BA would want 12RR engined aircraft and 5 random Engine Alliance jets.
 
skipness1E
Posts: 4835
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:18 am

Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 4:04 pm

It was one JT9D B747-200, G-BJXN with the balance having CF6s in commonality with the BCAL DC10 fleet which was retained.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1145
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 4:12 pm

SEPilot wrote:
The brutal fact is the only airline that can effectively utilize the A380 is EK. And why is that? Everyone says that there are other things besides CASM to consider, but that does not contradict the fact that most airlines will make the most money on a given route by flying the plane that offers the best CASM that is capable of flying the route. In the past that has usually been the largest plane available, and the only reason for selecting something smaller was the inability to fill the largest one consistently. But this is no longer true, as the A380 is no longer the plane offering the best CASM. The 77W is close, but the 787 and A350 beat it, as will the 77X. And even if you can fill an A380, you will probably make more money by leaving the economy passengers behind and flying more premium fares in a smaller plane. So why does the A380 work for EK and nobody else? An accident of geography. EK’s home base is ideally situated centrally to many of the world’s most frequent destinations, and due to its structure, organization, and geography is able to profitably offer better fares than most airlines on more long haul flights than any one else. And due to the fact that all of these flights must pass through a single airport that is bursting at the seams EK can make more money flying the biggest plane they can get even if others may offer slightly better CASM. And that is why they will continue using them until the efficiency gap becomes too big, and the 77X or another large twin comes along and allows them to make more money flying fewer passengers. The point is that EK presently can fill just about every seat it can offer, and unless that changes their strategy won’t.

EK is not filling its seats. This is from its Annual Report 2017-18:

"During the year, Emirates carried a new record of 58.5 million passengers
and 2.6 million tonnes of cargo across our network. Our average seat
load factor was 77.5%, against a 2% increase in capacity."

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