Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
User avatar
redcap1962
Posts: 242
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2010 9:26 am

Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 9:39 pm

placeholder wrote:
So with those 5 Frames coming available on the second Hand Market who could be interested ?
Hi-Fly might be an Option but 5 Frames at once might be a bit to much even for them,...


9H-MIP sitting on the ground for quite some time now and gathering dust... :cry: Not sure if only one more would be already too much for Hi-Fly!
This is your pilot speaking. Welcome to flight one from here to there. We'll be flying at a height of ten feet, going up to twelve and a half feet if we see anything big. My copilot today is a flask of coffee.

Eddie Izzard
 
User avatar
N1011
Posts: 15
Joined: Sun Dec 25, 2016 2:22 pm

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 10:10 pm

I never comment on these posts, however. the A380 while a technological engineering marvel, is not the right plane for the current economy. It was the right plane launched at the wrong time.
 
crownvic
Posts: 2743
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2004 10:16 pm

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 10:15 pm

N1011 wrote:
I never comment on these posts, however. the A380 while a technological engineering marvel, is not the right plane for the current economy. It was the right plane launched at the wrong time.

Very well said......
 
User avatar
mercure1
Posts: 4988
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2008 5:13 am

Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 10:45 pm

Revelation wrote:
The translation of https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-servi ... 224287.php states that it is EUR 45M per frame.



I believe the difference is entirely around cabin refit vs. also the heavy maintenance overhaul cost.

In staff journal, they mentioned cabin refit was €20mil investment per frame.
mercure f-wtcc
 
PHLCVGAMTK
Posts: 112
Joined: Tue Aug 29, 2017 6:50 pm

Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 10:51 pm

Not a surprise. The winning strategy for dealing with a congested hub airport since the mid-00s (i.e. after the A380 launch but before the deliveries) has been "build or buy another hub", and AF-KL and its Skyteam partners have done very well at preventing congestion by balancing traffic between CDG, AMS, ORY, JFK, ATL, etc. The A380 can still operate in the new world of big airline groups in strong alliances, but AF-KL seems particularly poorly suited for it, apart from a handful of the very largest TATL markets.

placeholder wrote:
So with those 5 Frames coming available on the second Hand Market who could be interested ?
If we take into Account that AF ordered the A380 with the GP7000 and only KE,EY, QR and some of the EK A380's are equipped with the same Engines it gets tight with Operators maybe interested in taking them over.


I don't see any of the ME3 getting AF's planes; I don't see how EY or QR can use more A380s at all in their networks, and EK needs to keep buying new to keep the FAL open. KE is an interesting possibility, though; they shouldn't and probably won't take them, but assuming that the leaseholders have made their money back on the AF lease and balloon payment, KE can probably offer pennies on the dollar to keep the planes out of the boneyard and pick them up for quick upgauges on routes to the US, newly-energized by the DL JV. Yes, the A380 will trash the yields, but thanks to the PRC3, Asia/Pacific yields are already trash, so KE might as well compete on quality. I don't even know that it hurts Skyteam to further flood the TPAC market in places like ORD or SFO. Again, though, this only makes any sense if KE gets a screaming deal on the planes, so it's much more likely that they go to Victorville to get parted out.
 
CFRPwingALbody
Posts: 385
Joined: Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:13 pm

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 11:03 pm

I think this could lead to quite a interesting situation. AFAIK all previous A380 that came to the second hand market were part of the WWTT (Wrong Wired TwentyTwo, AFAIK now 17 left MSN006-0022 & 025). If I remember correctly the WWTT's fall outside of the standard A380 maintenance program, thus they are more expensive to maintain than later MSN's.
Air France doesn't have WWTT's, so when these five A380's come on the second hand market, they are representative for the second hand value of A380's. (They still could have the wing fix.)
Another interesting aspect is that they have the EA GP7000 engines, EK (Emirates) also will start bringing GP7000 powered A380's on the second hand market in the not to distant future. Thus a airline could acquire a fleet (>5) of A380's with the same type of engines, not a odd ball single A380. And there is potential for future same engine variants later to expand the fleet, if the Airline can make the A380 work well in their network.

I know two airport that are very slot restricted LHR (Heathrow) and AMS (Amsterdam Schiphol). LHR is restricted because it has only two runways. AMS is politically restricted to a max of 500 000 annual commercial flights.

If AF (Air France):
- can't make the (10) A380's work well in their network,
- they have to do a expensive cabin refurbishment,
- and they have a option to not extend lease (/buyback arrangement ??);
it's a smart move to reduce the A380 fleet.
But I expect a Sky Team partner or a Atlantic alliance partner (AF/KLM, Delta, VA (Virgin Atlantic) [& Alitalia]) could make the A380's work.
Didn't Turkish Airlines express interest in A380's earlier this year?

I still find it odd that EK is continuing ordering A380's while they can't utilize more than 100 form DXB, while the opening of DWC has been postponed. EK must be planning to replace A380's, or they must be planning to open another hub.

The A380 program is stuck between a rock and a hard place. The A380 with the current engines has already to much fuel capacity for most routes, thus a re-engine program (and small wing optimizations (the A380plus)) won't lower CASM a lot. AFAIK that's why Airbus only proposed the wing optimizations and cabin utilization optimizations. If Airbus asks a engine supplier to develop a new engine for the A380, they should also develop a new (smaller MTOW) wing for the A380. But $$$, Brexit & market uncertainty.

I also wonder if the A380plus cabin options could be introduced in older A380's during a cabin refurbishing project. Does anyone know if this is a option Airbus could offer?
And how difficult is it to swap the EA GP7000's for RR Trend 800's, that could be engines with the latest PIP's.
(RR's are more efficient than EA's aren't they?)
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 24994
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 11:17 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
I still find it odd that EK is continuing ordering A380's while they can't utilize more than 100 form DXB, while the opening of DWC has been postponed. EK must be planning to replace A380's, or they must be planning to open another hub.

The A380 program is stuck between a rock and a hard place. The A380 with the current engines has already to much fuel capacity for most routes, thus a re-engine program (and small wing optimizations (the A380plus)) won't lower CASM a lot. AFAIK that's why Airbus only proposed the wing optimizations and cabin utilization optimizations. If Airbus asks a engine supplier to develop a new engine for the A380, they should also develop a new (smaller MTOW) wing for the A380. But $$$, Brexit & market uncertainty.

I also wonder if the A380plus cabin options could be introduced in older A380's during a cabin refurbishing project. Does anyone know if this is a option Airbus could offer?
And how difficult is it to swap the EA GP7000's for RR Trend 800's, that could be engines with the latest PIP's.
(RR's are more efficient than EA's aren't they?)

All the points you make are good ones, but they all require lots of investment at a time (a) the engine makers are spending big to ramp up other products and (b) as you say, market uncertainty dominates thinking.

A380's real turning point was when the 2014-6 NEO discussions ended without result, a pretty clear indication that there just wasn't enough interest in the program to secure a bridge forward.

After this, Airbus kept saying China would grow fast enough to save it, but never explained why they too wouldn't prefer the big twins.

Dubai's inability to fund DWC was also a major turning point.

Note that EK still hasn't signed the engine deal with RR so we still have a major question that needs resolution.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
User avatar
mercure1
Posts: 4988
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2008 5:13 am

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 11:20 pm

For those wondering which tails are subject to return.

F-HPJB / D / E / G / J
mercure f-wtcc
 
valefan16
Posts: 12
Joined: Mon Aug 07, 2017 11:55 am

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Fri Nov 23, 2018 11:35 pm

Do the Japanese not fancy them for their high density routes? Used to operate plenty of jumbos short haul?!
 
B752OS
Posts: 1272
Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2005 4:05 am

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 12:01 am

Why does a thread that touches upon Airbus' failure with the A380 have to turn into "oh the 777X will be a failure" or "the 777X is DOA"?
 
moa999
Posts: 1000
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 12:19 am

Because airliners.net

While CASM is important (eg. Joyce's comment), if you can pick up this aircraft on the cheap, total costs have to be way down on a pair of new 787s.

Think the engines make these aircraft even tougher than the SQ frames given the existing operators.

The A380 Plus changes (apart from the winglet) were all about increasing seat count - 9 abreast PE and 11 abreast Y, and the stair changes.. all of which makes the aircraft even harder to fill.

Airbus is starting the QF A380 refurbs next year and I don't believe any of the Plus elements were on offer.
In particular redesigned front stairs would have allowed QF to make better use of their bar area.
 
CFRPwingALbody
Posts: 385
Joined: Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:13 pm

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 12:21 am

mercure1 wrote:
For those wondering which tails are subject to return.

F-HPJB / D / E / G / J


Could you share your source for this info?

Thus there are now 2x A380-841 (RR) on offer; MSN-008 9V-SKD & MSN-010 9V-SKE, those weren't part of the A380 qualification program.
And two other A380-841 are (planned to) being scraped for parts; MSN-003 (9V-SKA) 2-DRPA & 9V-SKB.
The WWTT's are AFAIK best scraped for parts or converted to freighters or combo's, because they are odd ones anyway.
The production batch after the WWTT's were heavier than later ones, and the wing was reinforced at some point. The A380 produced before the wing reinforcement are heavier because they required some wing modifications. AFAIK during 2014 the reinforced wing was introduced. Thus MSN's delivered before that are less economical than later ones. Thus I expect that the earlier A380's are more likely to be phased out than later ones when a fleet size is reduced. But a lessor has a easier job finding demand for a later build A380.
And possibly also the cabin refurbishment planning AF has is a influence it the selection of the MSN's that return to lessor.
 
moa999
Posts: 1000
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 12:38 am

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
And possibly also the cabin refurbishment planning AF has is a influence it the selection of the MSN's that return to lessor.


Why does that matter?
If they want to keep them they will refurb to new seats.
If they buy a new aircraft as a replacement they will have to pay for new seats.
Only difference is it's probably more difficult to get finance for the refurb
 
Bhoy
Posts: 566
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2006 1:50 pm

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 12:43 am

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
mercure1 wrote:
For those wondering which tails are subject to return.

F-HPJB / D / E / G / J


Could you share your source for this info?

And possibly also the cabin refurbishment planning AF has is a influence it the selection of the MSN's that return to lessor.

I thought the whole point of the article was that AF's fleet of 10 comprised 5 owned and 5 leased Aircraft. Therefore there's no selection to be made - the leased ones are returned to the lessor, and the owned ones stay on property, surely?
 
User avatar
hOMSaR
Moderator
Posts: 2363
Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 4:47 am

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 1:36 am

Bhoy wrote:
I thought the whole point of the article was that AF's fleet of 10 comprised 5 owned and 5 leased Aircraft. Therefore there's no selection to be made - the leased ones are returned to the lessor, and the owned ones stay on property, surely?


That’s how I read it.





...and don’t call me Shirley.
I was raised by a cup of coffee.
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15460
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 1:37 am

I am quite sure the accountants at AF/KLM have done the numbers to keep 5 and 5 returned to lessors is in the the airline's best financial interest. AF also has the issue of much of the A380 made in France, so had pressure on them to buy, and keep in service. No doubt AF thought over 15 years ago there would be enough demand for seats at sufficient yield even in economy all weeks and year round, offering connecting services to former colonies in Africa, within the EC or elsewhere, but discount airlines, competition, the high costs for operating the 4 engine A380 vs. a large version 2 engine 777/A350 has thrown their much earlier plans into wack. You also have the risks of a major economic recession in a few years affecting demand downward, the growing issues of he unity of the EC, more efficient aircraft that may continue to raise problems for AF>

Is there a place for the returned A380's ? They might have to sold as a group so an airline has sufficient numbers to operate them in a financially reasonable way. Their best place is for operations in/out of the most slot and/or operational time (not between 001 and 600) restricted airports like LHR, JFK, LAX, and as noted above, AMS and others. I doubt that BA will take them and smaller or charters won't be able to make a profit. Perhaps a PRC based airliner could use them as have low enough labor costs, but they have issue too.
 
EChid
Posts: 567
Joined: Fri Nov 03, 2017 4:00 am

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 1:44 am

CALTECH wrote:
Interesting,.........did Airbus get it wrong and Boeing get it right ....

" If we send two 787s, which offer the same capacity as one A380, from Sydney to London, they will burn 5% less Fuel than the single A380. "

-Alan Joyce, Qantas CEO, on why the airline is not taking delivery of eight more Airbus A380s it has on order.

This thread has stayed largely on-subject and civil, stop stoking the flames of yet another unnecessary Airbus vs. Boeing debate. This has been discussed at length elsewhere.
 
Flighty
Posts: 9963
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 3:07 am

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 2:06 am

Maybe you need a critical mass for an A380 hub to work... with A380 flights feeding other A380 flights...
 
User avatar
NWAROOSTER
Posts: 1363
Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2005 2:29 pm

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 2:23 am

The A380 may be technologically a very good aircraft. However the A380 has to make good business sense to be operated by any airline. The A380 may be an expensive aircraft to maintain as it is a very large aircraft and therefore there is more aircraft to maintain. The bottom line is be it Delta who won't ever operate the aircraft, Hyfly, ANA which is just acquiring the A380, or Emirates which is the largest A380 operator and most likely the main reason the A380 made it into production needs to make a profit for any airline that chooses to fly the aircraft. Money is the bottom line. :old:
Procrastination Is The Theft Of Time.......
 
User avatar
GEUltraFan9XGTF
Posts: 385
Joined: Thu Nov 22, 2018 3:31 pm

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 2:35 am

B752OS wrote:
Why does a thread that touches upon Airbus' failure with the A380 have to turn into "oh the 777X will be a failure" or "the 777X is DOA"?


Because if one Airbus frame "fails" then a Boeing frame must also "fail." Simple logic. Misery demands company.
© 2020. All statements are my own. The use of my statements, including by journalists, YouTube vloggers like "DJ's Aviation", etc. without my written consent is strictly prohibited.
 
ScottB
Posts: 7191
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 2:43 am

SEPilot wrote:
The brutal fact is the only airline that can effectively utilize the A380 is EK.


The brutal fact is that the A380 might not even be effective in EK's fleet. The company recently released its performance for the most recent half-year (viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1408531) and a few key figures stand out: airline profit of AED 226 million on airline revenue of AED 48.9 billion. That works out to a margin of 0.46%; by comparison, Delta's net margin for the most recent quarter was 11%. EK's load factor improved to 78.8% but Delta's for the most recent quarter was 86.9%.

One might imagine that EK would have better profits if they could maintain load factors more similar to Delta's, but A380s provide a bunch of seats to fill. And as it stands, a net margin of 0.46% is poor compared to well-run companies in the global industry. I don't think the solution for EK is more capacity, either.

PHLCVGAMTK wrote:
KE can probably offer pennies on the dollar to keep the planes out of the boneyard and pick them up for quick upgauges on routes to the US, newly-energized by the DL JV.


I suspect that DL would be very unhappy with their JV partner dumping even more seats into a market with overcapacity problems, considering that the A380's unit costs are no better than the A350s DL has been adding to its fleet to replace the 747-400s.

SR380 wrote:
I get why airlines such as BA and LH bought it in Europe, due to their congested respective hubs. Is CDG in the same situation?


That's the thing: CDG isn't congested like LHR or FRA, and it's not politically limited like AMS. There's quite a bit of room for expansion in spite of the relatively poor terminal design. CDG has plenty of airfield capacity and AF can expand with greater frequency in smaller markets.

SteelChair wrote:
its amazing that AF can't make it work. Given the size of their CDG hub, one would think that they could fill enough seats at high enough yield. Just another example of what a challenge this large airplane provides to airlines.


The CDG hub is strong enough; they just don't need the A380. They can make more money by offering more frequent flights with smaller aircraft. And as other have pointed out, the A380 can be a challenge to fill in highly seasonal markets like the North Atlantic. Why dump hundreds of extra seats in the market in the low season if you don't have to?

Strato2 wrote:
Well it would have fitted their LCC image together with the horrible 77W. The 748 also provides a sub-par passenger "experience".


I've been on AF's 10-across 77W on an 8-hour flight and find the histrionics to be ridiculous. I was quite comfortable.

Antarius wrote:
Except we are 20 years past EIS for the a380 and it's still not selling. And the 777X (soon)and 35K are around now and fill nearly every need that the a380 can.


More like 10 years, but really it was the wrong airplane at the wrong time. Had it gone into service at the same time as the 744, I think both would have been ultimately viewed as mistakes. Boeing sold 467 passenger 747-400/D/ER frames and splitting that limited market with the A380 would have meant failure for both programs. Maybe air travel will grow to the point where 500+-seat aircraft are more widely needed, but we're not there yet.

Outside of a handful of markets where desirable travel times are limited by time zones/flight duration/airport curfews, offering a better selection of flight times will appeal to more passengers and allow airlines to extract better yields.
 
smartplane
Posts: 1607
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 2:56 am

Revelation wrote:
mercure1 wrote:
mercure1 wrote:
As has been explained at AF staff meetings the company had difficulty justifying their operations and required cabin refits (€20mil per frame) when other models provided.

The translation of https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-servi ... 224287.php states that it is EUR 45M per frame.

Maybe your info is out of date?

According to the translation, AF was looking at a bill for EUR 225M to update these frames to current standards or walking away from them, and they chose to walk away.

Perhaps EUR20m is the cabin refit unit cost for refurbishing an aircraft retained by AF. They may opt not to undertake a complete aircraft refurbishment, source used equipment, etc.

EUR45m would be the more reasonable number for the end of lease balloon payment, covering interior, exterior and pro rata accrued cost of services and inspections. Still seems on the low side, unless a generous leasor is involved, or there are transactions yet to be announced (like leasing new aircraft - not A380).
 
FromCDGtoSYD
Posts: 422
Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 2:59 am

The problem with AF is that they have very tight banks with little to no flights between them.
CDG in itself has a few moments in the day when there are very few flights.
So the congestion had to be from the other side of routes, and more often then not AF operates into airports where it can add frequencies instead of adding an A380. LAX, SFO, JNB, ABJ...

People keep on saying ATL should have been a no brainer and all but I'd be surprised if ATL could fill up premium cabins as well as say JFK or PVG.

Also, I knew a fair number of people who travel for business who actively avoid AFs A380s because of the outdated cabins, that couldn't have helped.
The question is what is AF going to replace these frames with, if the A350s are replacing Joons A340s 1 for 1 then that doesn't leave many frames for growth.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 24994
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 3:14 am

NWAROOSTER wrote:
The A380 may be an expensive aircraft to maintain as it is a very large aircraft and therefore there is more aircraft to maintain.

The article from "Les Echoes" makes the point that AF has had problems with A380 reliability, and when an A380 goes tech you end up having to rebook a lot more pax onto (typically) smaller aircraft and/or find lots of hotels. Therefore even if you do sell lots of seats at low margin you can lose it all or more due to one cancelled flight. It makes the burden on getting each and every tech issue resolved even higher than aircraft of similar vintage. Then when you consider A350 and 787 have the latest predictive maintenance tech on board, you can perhaps see why a used A380 is a hard sell.

B752OS wrote:
Why does a thread that touches upon Airbus' failure with the A380 have to turn into "oh the 777X will be a failure" or "the 777X is DOA"?

I think there's a genuine concern that as efficient as 777X will be, that it may be larger than the market wants, to the point where it might not sell enough to be able to pay off its sizeable launch investment. I hope this doesn't prove to be the case, but it is something to think about as we watch graves being dug for used A380s.

In a more perfect world, 787 would have tracked to a much more acceptable development timeline, and we'd see the proposed clean sheet Y3 rolling out in the same time frame as 777X. If that were the case they could have optimized the platform to be a more perfectly sized and more optimized 777 replacement. Instead 787 took up a lot more resources than planned and we have got the 777x instead.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
User avatar
N62NA
Posts: 4491
Joined: Sun Aug 10, 2003 1:05 am

Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 3:37 am

jayunited wrote:
flee wrote:
Airlines like DL, AA and UA could utilize the A380 from their hubs at ATL, EWR, DFW, LAX and SFO during the busy summer travel season but that only last for about 4-5 months what do you do with that same aircraft for the remainder of the year?


Just a quick correction: EWR can not handle the A380.
 
neutronstar73
Posts: 796
Joined: Mon Mar 21, 2011 7:57 pm

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 3:41 am

B752OS wrote:
Why does a thread that touches upon Airbus' failure with the A380 have to turn into "oh the 777X will be a failure" or "the 777X is DOA"?


I think that is a false equivalence that some are trying to make. I personally think the 777X will have a challenging future, but not as challenging as the A380. Totally different aircraft and costs/operations. But even so, the 777X may have a space to itself, and I think Airbus recognizes that...hence, the thread about Airbus ALREADY hiring people for an A350NEO study; I think they are loading up to prevent the 777X-series from gobbling up sales in the mid-2020's, and apparently got the papers on the 777x and want a response ready.
 
User avatar
GEUltraFan9XGTF
Posts: 385
Joined: Thu Nov 22, 2018 3:31 pm

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 3:44 am

Revelation wrote:
In a more perfect world, 787 would have tracked to a much more acceptable development timeline, and we'd see the proposed clean sheet Y3 rolling out in the same time frame as 777X. If that were the case they could have optimized the platform to be a more perfectly sized and more optimized 777 replacement. Instead 787 took up a lot more resources than planned and we have got the 777x instead.


I guess I question whether the 77X is Y3. Y2 is the 787 AFAIK. The 77X is a 777neo. Y1 (and Y0.5) is NSA, built in cooperation with Embraer. The 797 is a new animal that was never part of that plan; a Y1.5 if you will. Y3 is a good bit down the road? Something else to replace the 77X, probably once the 748F / KC-767A lines come to a stop?
© 2020. All statements are my own. The use of my statements, including by journalists, YouTube vloggers like "DJ's Aviation", etc. without my written consent is strictly prohibited.
 
PSAatSAN4Ever
Posts: 1167
Joined: Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:38 pm

Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 4:00 am

SEPilot wrote:
PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:

Something else to consider: most runways in the U.S. are okay to land an A380, but taxiways may or may not be able to handle the force of the landing gear imposes. Multiple airports here had to wait for scheduled A380-improvements before they could see service. Here at SAN, we have a military-grade runway built to handle heavy bombers during World War II, so an A380 here wouldn't be out of the question, but like many other airports in the U.S., the question would become 'what to do with the plane now that it's on the ground?'

On the other hand, wouldn't THAT make for an incredible site!!

The heaviest WWII aircraft was the B-29, with a maximum loaded weight of 110,000 lbs. That is lighter than every variant of the 737 except the 737-100. So if SAN can accommodate the A380 it is not because it was built for WWII bombers.


Very true. However, I believe the idea was that so Convair could continue to build bigger and bigger aircraft as long as needed, and therefore reinforced it to sustain heavier aircraft, which, the in 1940's, wasn't supposed to be too big. But look what happened!

In the end, I think the only "special" aircraft unable to handle standard taxiways will be the A380.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10446
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 4:19 am

So if LHR is so congested and the A380 is the perfect a/c why does BA not have more, why does BA allow other carriers to operate A380's into LHR with little to no response?
AF main airport is not slot restricted so their situation is understood...
 
deltadudejg
Posts: 254
Joined: Tue Jan 03, 2012 12:23 pm

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 4:26 am

Would Korean or Asiana consider these frames?
Aviation Enthusiast working in Airport Operations
 
jfidler
Posts: 388
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2000 3:32 pm

Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 5:44 am

redcap1962 wrote:
placeholder wrote:
So with those 5 Frames coming available on the second Hand Market who could be interested ?
Hi-Fly might be an Option but 5 Frames at once might be a bit to much even for them,...


9H-MIP sitting on the ground for quite some time now and gathering dust... :cry: Not sure if only one more would be already too much for Hi-Fly!


9H-MIP collided with a jet bridge at CDG 2 months ago. Maybe it's still being repaired?
 
2175301
Posts: 1944
Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 11:19 am

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 6:21 am

Several people have raised their opinion that the A380 is the perfect aircraft for slot or other restricted airports. They are only looking at at most 1/3 of the equation. You need both an equivalent restricted airport elsewhere and sufficient passenger demand between the two airports for the A380 to be suitable; and both airports must be able to handle the A380 in normal operations. All 4 factors only exist between a limited number of airport pairs...

This is why BA does not need or want more A380's despite the problems at London-Heath Row airport. They don't have suitable destinations to fly them too which meet the other criteria.

It is also why the general concept that increasing air traffic will automatically create a need for the A380, or future similar VLA. Unless increasing air traffic produces airport pairs which meet all 4 criteria... there is no need or demande for an A380 or future similar VLA.

Have a great day,

Have a great day,
 
vahancrazy
Posts: 194
Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2007 5:54 pm

Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 6:59 am

flee wrote:
[...]
A super jumbo requires A SUPER AIRLINE WITH SUPER CASALE PERSONNEL to operate it successfully. Unfortunately for Airbus, THERE IS ONLY ONE SUCH AIRLINE existing at the moment!


you can count both BA and LH! ;)
 
User avatar
kitplane01
Posts: 1622
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 5:58 am

Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 8:55 am

crownvic wrote:
My question...Is it not feasible for someone to come up with a plan and offer discounted service between high density markets like either JFK/EWR to MIA/MCO or NYC/LAS with an A380?
These flights are consistently sold out with mostly single aisle aircraft. Would a $99 airfare fill up an A380? People Express did it in the 80's with 747's to Europe..


As has been written many times ... for this flight distance a narrow body aircraft has significantly lower cost per seat than any wide body.

People don't use an A380 on these types of flights because 3 A320s cost less to operate, and give more frequency.
 
User avatar
kitplane01
Posts: 1622
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 5:58 am

Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 8:57 am

parapente wrote:
Since it's been established by the CEO of Qantas that the latest carbon twins are just as efficient as the A380 why on Earth would anybody buy / risk using the A380 unless - they can see a solid long term 80% load factor ( whatever seating).Clearly if someone could - with the v low ownership price ,then they would consider it.But who on Earth would that be?can't think of anybody.And at present the answer seems to be exactly that - nobody.Its a story that is going to explode in a couple of years time when huge amounts of A380 leases come in.Lots of coke cans.


One reason might be you can get a used A380 now, and a new A350 takes years to acquire. Also, a used A380 has lower cost (i.e. lower risk in a capital expenditure way) than a new A350.

Unless you can find a leasor who has one ready and not already claimed. Anyone know how likely that is.
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 5673
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 11:36 am

ScottB wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
The brutal fact is the only airline that can effectively utilize the A380 is EK.


The brutal fact is that the A380 might not even be effective in EK's fleet. The company recently released its performance for the most recent half-year (viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1408531) and a few key figures stand out: airline profit of AED 226 million on airline revenue of AED 48.9 billion. That works out to a margin of 0.46%; by comparison, Delta's net margin for the most recent quarter was 11%. EK's load factor improved to 78.8% but Delta's for the most recent quarter was 86.9%.

One might imagine that EK would have better profits if they could maintain load factors more similar to Delta's, but A380s provide a bunch of seats to fill. And as it stands, a net margin of 0.46% is poor compared to well-run companies in the global industry. I don't think the solution for EK is more capacity, either.

I said that as long as they can fill nearly every seat they offer, EK’s strategy would continue. Nobody can continue expanding forever, and maybe that time for EK has arrived. Many companies fail to recognize that moment, and let’s hope that EK doesn’t make that mistake. If they do, it would be grim news for both the A380 and the 77X.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
DXTraveler
Posts: 73
Joined: Wed May 27, 2015 4:31 pm

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 11:37 am

"I've been on AF's 10-across 77W on an 8-hour flight and find the histrionics to be ridiculous. I was quite comfortable."

Therefore everyone else should also. I have flown it too and with my height and broad shoulders I find it a miserable experience. I will go out of my way to avoid flying it if i can. Admittedly it is getting harder to do. Looking at threads on other flyer forums, I'm certainly not alone. Report back to us on 10 across after you've spent 8 hours next to a person of size.
 
moa999
Posts: 1000
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 11:46 am

I'm not small 190cm/6'3 and 100kg/220lbs with broad shoulders and have flown various 787s and even AirAsia's A330.

While I wouldn't like multiples of me in a row, give me pitch over width any day.
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 2268
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 12:18 pm

gadFly wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
Air France never had the network to support A380 operations. This was a vanity purchase directed by the French Government to support Airbus as well as French and European manufacturers that supply parts for the A380. The good news here is that the move does point to AF finally getting serious about addressing its structural issues.


Hmm, sorry, no; these are not the days of Concorde or the first Airbuses. If it were, AF would not have chosen the 787... SImply put, it looked like a good idea in the early 2Ks, before a whole series of economic issues hit, including the 2008 downturn. As for the structural issues, yes, they do exist, namely the SNPL, a pilots' union that thinks it is still flying Connies and 707s.


Hmm, sorry, yes. For the first time since it merged with KLM in 2004, Air France is finally moving in the right direction to address structural problems that have hobbled it and made it a far less competitive and well run company than its sister airline. The A380 was very much a vanity purchase. The route network at AF just does not lend itself to a VLA like that, with the exception of a small number of routes, which amounts to probably 5, hence the need to axe 5 of the 10 planes in the fleet. This isn't an A v. B issue.
 
mig17
Posts: 329
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2016 8:34 am

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 12:32 pm

B752OS wrote:
Why does a thread that touches upon Airbus' failure with the A380 have to turn into "oh the 777X will be a failure" or "the 777X is DOA"?

Maybe because someone else first presented the demise of the A380 as an opportunity for the 777X :
superbizzy73 wrote:
Would this open the door for a 777-9 order?


While it is true that the 77W as taken a big part of the A380 intended market as a "better" 747 replacement, neither the 77W nor the 779X are direct A380 competitors. So no Air France letting 5 A380 go isn't an opportunity for the 777X. I don't even think AF will realy replace those aircraft. It is a fleet reduction by returning to the lessor planes that AF doesn't "know" how to use except on JFK and maybe LAX.
Also don't forget that 787 are still coming in and AF (& Joon) will soon see the A359 delivered. With 21 on order, they will be replacing the last A340 and the olders 77E. So there will be less 777 and some A350 already in AF fleet when the time comes to replace the 77W. That plus the last 5 A380 replacement is the 779 opportunity at AF but it will be opposed to A350 and even 787 for that order. Not great odds. And that is the 777X main weakness because AF isn't an specific case.
Now, the 779 hasn't fly yet, so wait and see.
727 AT, 737 UX/SK/TO/SS, 747 UT/AF/SQ/BA/SS, 767 UA, 777 AF, A300 IW/TG, A310 EK, A318/19/20/21 AF/U2/VY, A332/3 EK/QR/TX, A343 AF, A388 AF, E145/170/190 A5/WF, Q400 WF, ATR 72 A5/TX, CRJ100/700/1000 A5, C-150/172, PC-6.
 
WIederling
Posts: 9592
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 1:16 pm

CALTECH wrote:
Interesting,.........did Airbus get it wrong and Boeing get it right ....

" If we send two 787s, which offer the same capacity as one A380, from Sydney to London, they will burn 5% less Fuel than the single A380. "

-Alan Joyce, Qantas CEO


Qantas 787-9 seating:
0 First; 42 Business; 28 Premium Economy; 166 Economy
times two would be:
0 First; 84 Business; 56 Premium Economy; 332 Economy ~= 472

Qantas A380-800 seating:
14 First, 64 Business, 35 Premium Economy and 371 Economy ~= 484

Stuff the A380 in an arrangement similar to the 787 or vice versa
and the A380 will be 20% lower per seat.
Murphy is an optimist
 
Waterbomber
Posts: 849
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 11:51 am

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 1:45 pm

I predict that we will look back to this thread in 5 years and have a good laugh.

High relative maintenance costs, high relative costs when one goes tech, etc... Those are mere excuses.

Aviation is a seasonal business no matter how you look at it and you have to wonder how efficient it is to park brand new B787's and A350's with 7 figure lease payments during the winter, or worse even, operate them at a loss.

If oil prices stay below 100 USD per barrel, it makes sense to operate the A380 like hell during the high seasons and to park some of them during the winter.
That's what low capital costs allows you to do.

So one has to wonder if the ongoing global fleet rollover makes sense at all.
Delta is the most profitable airline in the world currently, and if you look at their fleet, there isn't a single B787, B77W and the A350 have just started arriving.
How dare they make so much money with tired old B717's, B767's and B772ER's and now even "useless" A330neo's?
According to airliners.net wisdom, fuel burn is everything, capital cost is an accessory.
Yet against that wisdom, DL are the most profitable in the business.

Talking about DL, if the used A380*frames are cheap enough, I can see them pick up a few to operate on some routes, at least seasonally.
Who knows, perhaps JFK-LHR could be one of those routes...? BA better watch out.

AF is running a high frequency service using brand new B787's and B77W's as their mainstay aircraft, and yet can't seem to make any money.

The A380 can make money to Asia from CDG.
You just have to know how to do it and when you can't even make money hubbing at one of the most desirable places in the world, there is something structurally wrong with the airline beyond aircraft purchase decisions.
 
brindabella
Posts: 644
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2010 10:38 am

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 2:08 pm

smartplane wrote:
Suggests the lease was 10 years, plus say multiple 2 yearly rollovers, a common arrangement for volume NB operators, not uncommon for volume A330 operators, but very unusual for most WB types (usual would be 12-16 years, then rollovers).

Buybacks in place on these five (or perhaps all 10 with AF forgiving Airbus the arrangement on the last 5, in return for the qualifying period coming forward on the first 5)?

Was much nimble dancing to keep the original orders in place when deliveries were delayed. Preference was to minimise dollar compensation, instead favouring improved terms and conditions.

How commercial a lease is involved? End of lease payments due from leasee usually includes internal and external refurbishment, and pro rata contribution to inspections and maintenance. If the aircraft have no flying future, expect the leasor to insist on payment (rather than the work done) so applied against residuals, with the aircraft depreciated for a few years until the write off is lower. Or if EOL is substantial enough, scrapped promptly, with engines probably to AF or EK.

As EA wouldn't fix the price of engine maintenance beyond 10 years when these aircraft were delivered, likely maintenance pricing is going the way of the Trent 500, although with Airbus encouragement(?), RR has had a recent change of heart.

Are Boeing and GE playing a great game of chess? Doing everything possible to undermine A380 economics, triggering early retirements, and therefore early replacement?


Congratulations. :yes:

Superb post. The staccato phrasing does not do justice to the throw-weight of your comments.
In particular, I will be chewing-on your final speculation for some time.

Does that really happen? :o
I never dreamed!

cheers Bill
Billy
 
brindabella
Posts: 644
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2010 10:38 am

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 2:27 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
I think this could lead to quite a interesting situation. AFAIK all previous A380 that came to the second hand market were part of the WWTT (Wrong Wired TwentyTwo, AFAIK now 17 left MSN006-0022 & 025). If I remember correctly the WWTT's fall outside of the standard A380 maintenance program, thus they are more expensive to maintain than later MSN's.
Air France doesn't have WWTT's, so when these five A380's come on the second hand market, they are representative for the second hand value of A380's. (They still could have the wing fix.)
Another interesting aspect is that they have the EA GP7000 engines, EK (Emirates) also will start bringing GP7000 powered A380's on the second hand market in the not to distant future. Thus a airline could acquire a fleet (>5) of A380's with the same type of engines, not a odd ball single A380. And there is potential for future same engine variants later to expand the fleet, if the Airline can make the A380 work well in their network.

I know two airport that are very slot restricted LHR (Heathrow) and AMS (Amsterdam Schiphol). LHR is restricted because it has only two runways. AMS is politically restricted to a max of 500 000 annual commercial flights.

If AF (Air France):
- can't make the (10) A380's work well in their network,
- they have to do a expensive cabin refurbishment,
- and they have a option to not extend lease (/buyback arrangement ??);
it's a smart move to reduce the A380 fleet.
But I expect a Sky Team partner or a Atlantic alliance partner (AF/KLM, Delta, VA (Virgin Atlantic) [& Alitalia]) could make the A380's work.
Didn't Turkish Airlines express interest in A380's earlier this year?

I still find it odd that EK is continuing ordering A380's while they can't utilize more than 100 form DXB, while the opening of DWC has been postponed. EK must be planning to replace A380's, or they must be planning to open another hub.

The A380 program is stuck between a rock and a hard place. The A380 with the current engines has already to much fuel capacity for most routes, thus a re-engine program (and small wing optimizations (the A380plus)) won't lower CASM a lot. AFAIK that's why Airbus only proposed the wing optimizations and cabin utilization optimizations. If Airbus asks a engine supplier to develop a new engine for the A380, they should also develop a new (smaller MTOW) wing for the A380. But $$$, Brexit & market uncertainty.

I also wonder if the A380plus cabin options could be introduced in older A380's during a cabin refurbishing project. Does anyone know if this is a option Airbus could offer?
And how difficult is it to swap the EA GP7000's for RR Trend 800's, that could be engines with the latest PIP's.
(RR's are more efficient than EA's aren't they?)



Excellent post.

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
I still find it odd that EK is continuing ordering A380's while they can't utilize more than 100 from DXB, while the opening of DWC has been postponed. EK must be planning to replace A380's, or they must be planning to open another hub.


Indeed. To coin the great wisdom from Winnie the Pooh: "It makes my brain hurt to think about it".

A great mystery, really.

As noted by Revelation above, it will be very interesting to see what happens when STC goes.

cheers
Billy
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 11055
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 2:31 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
Talking about DL, if the used A380*frames are cheap enough, I can see them pick up a few to operate on some routes, at least seasonally.
Who knows, perhaps JFK-LHR could be one of those routes...? BA better watch out.

DL would pick up used 77Ws long before they pick up the A380. Their highest capacity aircraft (the A359) only has 306 seats in it, they are not suddenly going to jump to a A380 (which in DL’a configuration would be approaching a 75-100% jump in capacity) which DL management has made clear over the years that they have zero interest in.
Last edited by Polot on Sat Nov 24, 2018 2:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 11055
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 2:40 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
I think this could lead to quite a interesting situation. AFAIK all previous A380 that came to the second hand market were part of the WWTT (Wrong Wired TwentyTwo, AFAIK now 17 left MSN006-0022 & 025). If I remember correctly the WWTT's fall outside of the standard A380 maintenance program, thus they are more expensive to maintain than later MSN's.
Air France doesn't have WWTT's, so when these five A380's come on the second hand market, they are representative for the second hand value of A380's. (They still could have the wing fix.)

That is not entirely true. The MH A380s that the airline has/had been trying to offload for years now are not early birds with unique maintenance needs. But we don’t know how flexible and realistic MH has been with the asking price of those planes.
 
ydahman
Posts: 51
Joined: Wed Feb 22, 2006 11:23 am

Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 2:44 pm

Boair wrote:
stylo777 wrote:
which routes are currently served by AF 380s`?


JFK, LAX, JNB, MEX, ABJ, PVG year round and MIA/SFO seasonally



WHAT ABOUT IAD?
 
brindabella
Posts: 644
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2010 10:38 am

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 2:47 pm

moa999 wrote:
Because airliners.net

While CASM is important (eg. Joyce's comment), if you can pick up this aircraft on the cheap, total costs have to be way down on a pair of new 787s.

Think the engines make these aircraft even tougher than the SQ frames given the existing operators.

The A380 Plus changes (apart from the winglet) were all about increasing seat count - 9 abreast PE and 11 abreast Y, and the stair changes.. all of which makes the aircraft even harder to fill.

Airbus is starting the QF A380 refurbs next year and I don't believe any of the Plus elements were on offer.
In particular redesigned front stairs would have allowed QF to make better use of their bar area.


moa999 wrote:
Because airliners.net.

:rotfl:
I have every intention of using this (shamelessly) in future.

However:
moa999 wrote:
While CASM is important (eg. Joyce's comment), if you can pick up this aircraft on the cheap, total costs have to be way down on a pair of new 787s.


Yeah, I thought of that one also.
But the requisite insight was given (IIRC) by Bob Crandall of AA way, way back.

When asked why AA never operated the 747 (and they never did), he noted that the 747(then) "is great as long as you can fill the seats."

So what> So - "when you still have to run a service in the "off" season, then the costs of flying a 747(A380) EMPTY will eat you alive".

Major major risk. A canny airline CEO just won't even consider it.

cheers
Billy
 
User avatar
airzim
Posts: 1460
Joined: Wed Jun 20, 2001 7:40 am

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 2:55 pm

brindabella wrote:
When asked why AA never operated the 747 (and they never did), he noted that the 747(then) [i][u]"is great as long as you can fill the seats."


Not to undermine your quote or point, but AA most certainly operated 747s. Twice in fact. Original 747-100s and 747SP.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 24994
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sat Nov 24, 2018 2:57 pm

neutronstar73 wrote:
But even so, the 777X may have a space to itself, and I think Airbus recognizes that...hence, the thread about Airbus ALREADY hiring people for an A350NEO study; I think they are loading up to prevent the 777X-series from gobbling up sales in the mid-2020's, and apparently got the papers on the 777x and want a response ready.

Interesting comments.

I wonder where they think they can take the A350 family. I would imagine UltraFan would be the most likely engine candidate.

Airbus and Rolls-Royce sign UltraFan engine integration collaboration agreement says:

Axel Flaig, Airbus Head of Research and Technology, said: “This technology development programme with Rolls-Royce is a key project for Airbus to pave the way towards the next generation integrated propulsion systems that will be needed by airline customers towards the end of the next decade. We thank the Clean Sky 2 European funding programme for its strong support to this project which is a key contributor towards the ACARE environmental targets.”

It seems a bit early, but I guess it's time to get staff rolling on that project.

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Revelation wrote:
In a more perfect world, 787 would have tracked to a much more acceptable development timeline, and we'd see the proposed clean sheet Y3 rolling out in the same time frame as 777X. If that were the case they could have optimized the platform to be a more perfectly sized and more optimized 777 replacement. Instead 787 took up a lot more resources than planned and we have got the 777x instead.

I guess I question whether the 77X is Y3. Y2 is the 787 AFAIK. The 77X is a 777neo. Y1 (and Y0.5) is NSA, built in cooperation with Embraer. The 797 is a new animal that was never part of that plan; a Y1.5 if you will. Y3 is a good bit down the road? Something else to replace the 77X, probably once the 748F / KC-767A lines come to a stop?

Sorry if I didn't make it clear, but I was trying to say that instead of 777X ( = 777 + neo + nwo ) we could/should? have been getting ( clean sheet ) Y3 instead.

As above, Airbus thinks so much of their ability to undermine 777X that they're already doing A350neo advance work.

I think part of the reason why is their early work shows them they really can undercut it with an engine such as UltraFan that is matched perfectly to the ( excellent ) A350 design.

Waterbomber wrote:
If oil prices stay below 100 USD per barrel, it makes sense to operate the A380 like hell during the high seasons and to park some of them during the winter.
That's what low capital costs allows you to do.

No, it doesn't.

If it did, over the past decade or so we'd see scores of 744s operating the high seasons and being parked in the off season.

Instead we saw 744s migrate to the boneyard, or to charter/ACMI roles that don't make much money, just like we saw the first A380 migrate to HiFly.

Waterbomber wrote:
How dare they make so much money with tired old B717's, B767's and B772ER's and now even "useless" A330neo's?
According to airliners.net wisdom, fuel burn is everything, capital cost is an accessory.
Yet against that wisdom, DL are the most profitable in the business.

They can do that because they have a thriving MRO outfit and can utilize it without paying street prices. Not many have that, even the other US legacies have wound down or spun off much of their MRO operations, thus the preference for relatively new aircraft with better efficiency and lower maintenance costs to offset the capital costs. What DL does is admirable, but it's been a part of the company they've had to invest in continuously, and new operators can't afford to ramp that up at the same time they ramp up their airline business. Think of how much it would cost a new entrant just to build a hangar at many of the airports DL has facilities at. Then consider what it'd cost to acquire the mechanics, the tools, the licenses, the training, etc. It's just a non-starter for new entrants. Also consider how the engine and airframe vendors are pushing power by the hour and the leasing community is insisting on it being written into leases. DL is already a rarity, and they are finding themselves challenged because the engine and airframe vendors want to capture the MRO business for themselves with the financial community's support. DL has the clout to keep the MRO side going, but few others do.

Waterbomber wrote:
Talking about DL, if the used A380*frames are cheap enough, I can see them pick up a few to operate on some routes, at least seasonally.
Who knows, perhaps JFK-LHR could be one of those routes...? BA better watch out.

Not a chance. They could have chosen to keep 744s rolling but they wound that operation down. I don't see them spooling up an A380 operation.

Waterbomber wrote:
The A380 can make money to Asia from CDG.
You just have to know how to do it and when you can't even make money hubbing at one of the most desirable places in the world, there is something structurally wrong with the airline beyond aircraft purchase decisions.

As written above, you need two strong markets on both sides for the A380 to make money. EK can do that after years of building their network up, not many others can. In particular AF has been reducing rather than growing their network. They do have "structural" issues in the fact that they have to pay crews on Western European union rates. If you could change that, you could change a lot of things about how the airline operates. Since you can't, you have to work with that constraint.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos