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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Sun Nov 25, 2018 3:28 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
On a grammar note, the title should read "Air France will halve its A380 fleet". In English there is the verb, "to halve", meaning the action of splitting a sum (or a single object) into two equal parts.

Absolutely no offense whatsoever is intended from my grammar points - it is what I do for a living (9th grade), and I most certainly appreciate when someone corrects my German or Spanish, because I would like to learn from my mistake and add that experience to my database.

(some airplane stuff)

On the other hand, wouldn't THAT make for an incredible site!!

Hmm, don't you mean "sight"? :P ;)


I thought he meant as in website. Alas I was mistaken.

Malapropism is very much in sight on this site. ;)
Potestatem obscuri lateris nescitis
 
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Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sun Nov 25, 2018 3:38 pm

hongkongflyer wrote:
The situation make the sales of new 380 in the future becomes more difficult.
Leasing company not interested because it is highly unlikely that they can fin a new lessee after the first lease;
Airline not interested to own it because of the lack of the second market.

It is one of the rare model where basically no one has place a top-up order except EK and SQ.
For SQ's case, if those first 5 were not the re-worked one, SQ may just extend the lease instead of placing new order to replace them.

Right, to elaborate a little bit more, SQ's 5-bird top-up is not to grow but to maintain the fleet size. So, EK is the only airline to increase their nett A-380 numbers.
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musman9853
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Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sun Nov 25, 2018 4:24 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
hinckley wrote:
Zaf wrote:
Some people here didn't get the message. A380 is bad for AF. They have regretted to order them in the first place. They want to get rid of all 10. But nobody wants to buy the 5 owned ones. So they continue to use them for a few more years. This is disastrous PR for the A380 program.


Right on.

I am neither an A-fanboy nor a B-fanboy, but I think the A380 fans have got this one all wrong. Of course it's a great airplane. But the entire VLA market is failing, with only one or two major carriers such as EK still interested in those aircraft. And that's impacting all the models in that market. Those who feel that they understand AF's needs better than AF may want to think more broadly about the VLA market. The 748 is already dead. And as others have said, the 779 may well follow the same fate. A380-like aircraft may fare better in 10 or 20 years. But not now.


Only time can tell but I think that we need to look to what the Chinese airlines will do.
Airbus can ramp up the A380 production rate fairly quickly. Before you know it CZ can order 30 of those and splash enough volume on Transsiberian and TPAC that some airlines are going to have to start looking for a different place to send their tiny B787's.
And then you can forget about what's the most efficient and the frequency or point to point mantra.
It becomes a matter of whom has the deepest pockets.


we know that 2 787s can carry more passengers and generate more profit than a single a380. why would chinese airlines buy a380s over 787s? its not like china has a problem expanding airports. one major advantage of a dictatorship is that they dont have to bother with proposals and voting, they can just sieze land to build new airports
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Sun Nov 25, 2018 4:54 pm

FlightLevel360 wrote:
Once airports really get congested, then the airlines will know the power and efficiency of the A380.
It's just that no airport is even remotely close to that level yet.
Oh, and as air travel becomes more affordable, that's when the A380 will start to make more sense too.
I think the A380 came a little bit too early.


Airbus created this simplistic myth and many keep repeating it. The concept is that congested airports will need a more A380's to increase the number of passengers per landing slot. The problem with this simple minded statement is that it assumes the only solution is at the upper end of the size spectrum ie. the A380. The fact is the average plane size has been increasing all along the spectrum from narrow body on up.Hundreds of A380's is not the way to solve the issue.
 
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Sun Nov 25, 2018 4:58 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
Air France never had the network to support A380 operations. This was a vanity purchase directed by the French Government to support Airbus as well as French and European manufacturers that supply parts for the A380. The good news here is that the move does point to AF finally getting serious about addressing its structural issues.


That's the accusation (usually from the other side of the Atlantic). I've never seen a source. Have you? Please provide, I'd be interested, since the French Government are small minority shareholder... or this is just propaganda.
When all's said and done, there'll be more said than done.
 
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Sun Nov 25, 2018 5:08 pm

SC430 wrote:
FlightLevel360 wrote:
Once airports really get congested, then the airlines will know the power and efficiency of the A380.
It's just that no airport is even remotely close to that level yet.
Oh, and as air travel becomes more affordable, that's when the A380 will start to make more sense too.
I think the A380 came a little bit too early.


Airbus created this simplistic myth and many keep repeating it. The concept is that congested airports will need a more A380's to increase the number of passengers per landing slot. The problem with this simple minded statement is that it assumes the only solution is at the upper end of the size spectrum ie. the A380. The fact is the average plane size has been increasing all along the spectrum from narrow body on up.Hundreds of A380's is not the way to solve the issue.

Agreed. Upgauging is the solution, but at the intermediate sizes. RJ to 150 seater. A320 to A321 or later 797, A330 or 787 to 779, etc.

CASM matters more.

Hubs that do not expect will be bypassed. For example AA will use PHL and CLT for TATL. If there are no slots at the big airports, they will serve secondary airports.

The new IST, DUB, WAW, and SVO will serve Europe's hubbing needs. Not to mention the ME3. I'm not worrying about the USA. Where the growth is, there is expansion. Asia is building airport capacity rapidly.

The A380 needs a NEO and a stretch to get down CASM on the routes it works for.

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Bald1983
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Sun Nov 25, 2018 5:26 pm

SEPilot wrote:
The brutal fact is the only airline that can effectively utilize the A380 is EK. And why is that? Everyone says that there are other things besides CASM to consider, but that does not contradict the fact that most airlines will make the most money on a given route by flying the plane that offers the best CASM that is capable of flying the route. In the past that has usually been the largest plane available, and the only reason for selecting something smaller was the inability to fill the largest one consistently. But this is no longer true, as the A380 is no longer the plane offering the best CASM. The 77W is close, but the 787 and A350 beat it, as will the 77X. And even if you can fill an A380, you will probably make more money by leaving the economy passengers behind and flying more premium fares in a smaller plane. So why does the A380 work for EK and nobody else? An accident of geography. EK’s home base is ideally situated centrally to many of the world’s most frequent destinations, and due to its structure, organization, and geography is able to profitably offer better fares than most airlines on more long haul flights than any one else. And due to the fact that all of these flights must pass through a single airport that is bursting at the seams EK can make more money flying the biggest plane they can get even if others may offer slightly better CASM. And that is why they will continue using them until the efficiency gap becomes too big, and the 77X or another large twin comes along and allows them to make more money flying fewer passengers. The point is that EK presently can fill just about every seat it can offer, and unless that changes their strategy won’t.


I would think one thing that could change your facts, is the ability to overfly the Persian Gulf and Emirates, altogether, if and when that ever happens.
 
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Sun Nov 25, 2018 5:30 pm

ozglobal wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
Air France never had the network to support A380 operations. This was a vanity purchase directed by the French Government to support Airbus as well as French and European manufacturers that supply parts for the A380. The good news here is that the move does point to AF finally getting serious about addressing its structural issues.


That's the accusation (usually from the other side of the Atlantic). I've never seen a source. Have you? Please provide, I'd be interested, since the French Government are small minority shareholder... or this is just propaganda.


Do you have any evidence that refutes it? Most airlines put the brakes on the A-380 purchases as they realized Airbus called it wrong on what the market would be. I have no intention bashing Airbus; they called it right with the A-350.
 
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Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sun Nov 25, 2018 5:42 pm

WIederling wrote:
Aither wrote:
What is more surprising is that the business of EK could be replicated in some other parts of the world but so far no entrepreneur decided to go for it.

vision and staying power ::: both fully incompatible with the shareholder quarterlies crowd.

If only AF had an Emir of France on their side, with full control over the nation's sovereign investing fund and full control over aviation regulations and airports too.
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Sun Nov 25, 2018 5:42 pm

Bald1983 wrote:
ozglobal wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
Air France never had the network to support A380 operations. This was a vanity purchase directed by the French Government to support Airbus as well as French and European manufacturers that supply parts for the A380. The good news here is that the move does point to AF finally getting serious about addressing its structural issues.


That's the accusation (usually from the other side of the Atlantic). I've never seen a source. Have you? Please provide, I'd be interested, since the French Government are small minority shareholder... or this is just propaganda.


Do you have any evidence that refutes it? Most airlines put the brakes on the A-380 purchases as they realized Airbus called it wrong on what the market would be. I have no intention bashing Airbus; they called it right with the A-350.


You state as a fact that "this was vanity purchase directed by the French Government..". That's a very specific allegation that AF is not running a commercial operation. Shareholders of this publicly listed company would be most interested. Burden of proof is with you. Do you withdraw the allegation or do you have a source?
When all's said and done, there'll be more said than done.
 
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Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sun Nov 25, 2018 6:01 pm

WIederling wrote:
Aither wrote:
What is more surprising is that the business of EK could be replicated in some other parts of the world but so far no entrepreneur decided to go for it.


vision and staying power ::: both fully incompatible with the shareholder quarterlies crowd.

I agree with your general sentiment regarding quarterly financials, but shareholders want a profit. If the A380 is not providing that for AF, then it's a gots to go situation. I think you're too harsh on AF management in this case though. When you're investing hundreds of millions of dollars/euros for an asset you will be using for over a decade that by its very nature requires vision and staying power. I think AF had that when they bought the A380. Turns out their vision was wrong. Poop happens. They cleverly hedged by buying half and leasing half their fleet. I still think they will keep the leased frames under new more favorable renewal terms, but I may be wrong. It may turn out that the A380 is just a dog for AF.
 
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Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sun Nov 25, 2018 6:26 pm

Bricktop wrote:
I think you're too harsh on AF management in this case though.


Look at the KLM AF merger. From that afaics did AF get a second lease on life ( the KLM dowry) and burned that up too.

Now they seem to go for shedding the biggest assets ( that contractually allow shedding.)
Might even be open if that is the real loss generator or if the cause is deeper rooted.
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Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sun Nov 25, 2018 6:48 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
Only time can tell but I think that we need to look to what the Chinese airlines will do.
Airbus can ramp up the A380 production rate fairly quickly. Before you know it CZ can order 30 of those and splash enough volume on Transsiberian and TPAC that some airlines are going to have to start looking for a different place to send their tiny B787's.
And then you can forget about what's the most efficient and the frequency or point to point mantra.
It becomes a matter of whom has the deepest pockets.

The Chinese market is essentially high volume/low yield. A380s would add volume but put downward pressure on yields at a time when the Chinese carriers are looking to improve yields.
 
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Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sun Nov 25, 2018 6:51 pm

WIederling wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
I think you're too harsh on AF management in this case though.

Look at the KLM AF merger. From that afaics did AF get a second lease on life ( the KLM dowry) and burned that up too.

You realize that happened 14 years ago and there's a different management team in place now, right?

Now they seem to go for shedding the biggest assets ( that contractually allow shedding.)

Now they seem to go for shedding the assets that cause the biggest expenses relative to income.

Might even be open if that is the real loss generator or if the cause is deeper rooted.

You don't have to look very far when you have aircraft with the highest capacity and not the lowest CASM, that is a real loss generator.
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Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sun Nov 25, 2018 7:24 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
I predict that we will look back to this thread in 5 years and have a good laugh.

High relative maintenance costs, high relative costs when one goes tech, etc... Those are mere excuses.

Aviation is a seasonal business no matter how you look at it and you have to wonder how efficient it is to park brand new B787's and A350's with 7 figure lease payments during the winter, or worse even, operate them at a loss.

If oil prices stay below 100 USD per barrel, it makes sense to operate the A380 like hell during the high seasons and to park some of them during the winter.
That's what low capital costs allows you to do.

So one has to wonder if the ongoing global fleet rollover makes sense at all.
Delta is the most profitable airline in the world currently, and if you look at their fleet, there isn't a single B787, B77W and the A350 have just started arriving.
How dare they make so much money with tired old B717's, B767's and B772ER's and now even "useless" A330neo's?
According to airliners.net wisdom, fuel burn is everything, capital cost is an accessory.
Yet against that wisdom, DL are the most profitable in the business.

Talking about DL, if the used A380*frames are cheap enough, I can see them pick up a few to operate on some routes, at least seasonally.
Who knows, perhaps JFK-LHR could be one of those routes...? BA better watch out.

AF is running a high frequency service using brand new B787's and B77W's as their mainstay aircraft, and yet can't seem to make any money.

The A380 can make money to Asia from CDG.
You just have to know how to do it and when you can't even make money hubbing at one of the most desirable places in the world, there is something structurally wrong with the airline beyond aircraft purchase decisions.


Doubtful. One does not buy expensive aircraft, even at bargain (Relatively) prices to park for large parts of the year. The A-380 is too large, too expensive, not just to buy but to operate. You are also speaking of a very small number of routes, meaning a very small fleet, which makes it more expensive to operate.
 
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Sun Nov 25, 2018 7:31 pm

ozglobal wrote:
Bald1983 wrote:
ozglobal wrote:

That's the accusation (usually from the other side of the Atlantic). I've never seen a source. Have you? Please provide, I'd be interested, since the French Government are small minority shareholder... or this is just propaganda.


Do you have any evidence that refutes it? Most airlines put the brakes on the A-380 purchases as they realized Airbus called it wrong on what the market would be. I have no intention bashing Airbus; they called it right with the A-350.


You state as a fact that "this was vanity purchase directed by the French Government..". That's a very specific allegation that AF is not running a commercial operation. Shareholders of this publicly listed company would be most interested. Burden of proof is with you. Do you withdraw the allegation or do you have a source?


Not at all. However, there is history of "vanity" purchases of aircraft, such as the Concorde. That does not mean Air France is not a commercial enterprise. My guess is that Air France bought the A-380 for several reasons, to operate a European built aircraft that was also larger then the 747, hence the vanity, to stay on good terms with the French Government, more vanity, and accepting Airbus' prediction that the future of long haul international flying would be from satellite to mega hub, to mega hub at the other end, then back to satellite airport.
 
ozglobal
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Sun Nov 25, 2018 8:36 pm

Bald1983 wrote:
ozglobal wrote:
Bald1983 wrote:

Do you have any evidence that refutes it? Most airlines put the brakes on the A-380 purchases as they realized Airbus called it wrong on what the market would be. I have no intention bashing Airbus; they called it right with the A-350.


You state as a fact that "this was vanity purchase directed by the French Government..". That's a very specific allegation that AF is not running a commercial operation. Shareholders of this publicly listed company would be most interested. Burden of proof is with you. Do you withdraw the allegation or do you have a source?


Not at all. However, there is history of "vanity" purchases of aircraft, such as the Concorde. That does not mean Air France is not a commercial enterprise. My guess is that Air France bought the A-380 for several reasons, to operate a European built aircraft that was also larger then the 747, hence the vanity, to stay on good terms with the French Government, more vanity, and accepting Airbus' prediction that the future of long haul international flying would be from satellite to mega hub, to mega hub at the other end, then back to satellite airport.


All you have illustrated is that you are attached to negative cultural stereotypes in ration to France and have no sources for your allegations. You are repeating value judgements based on an embarrassing lack of facts. The Concorde was ordered by Air France AND British Airways in the 1960's, before the OPEC oil embargo and resulting energy crisis when there was every reason to believe that SST was the next chapter of mainstream long haul air travel. After the crisis, both the BA and Air France were supplied the remaining frames as there was now no other market for them. You go on, "My guess is that Air France bought the A-380 for several reasons, to operate a European built aircraft that was also larger then the 747, hence the vanity, to stay on good terms with the French Government..." Well that's more of a projection of your stereotype than an informed opinion: Air France is a fully privatatized, publicly listed company and has been for decades. Guess who was the launch customer for Boeing for the 77W? - AF. They operate around 70 777s, 43 of them 77W's. BA has 12 A380's and say they want more. Is that vanity according to you? They also are a 'European' company. Luftansa operate 14 A380's. More vanity? AF leased 5 and bought 5. The aircraft is only suited to a limited number of routes and they have gone for more 777s and 787s for frequency on other routes. Hence they are letting the leases expire on the 5. That is all. The rest is a France bashing effort. At least admit that.
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Sun Nov 25, 2018 9:41 pm

SC430 wrote:
FlightLevel360 wrote:
Once airports really get congested, then the airlines will know the power and efficiency of the A380.
It's just that no airport is even remotely close to that level yet.
Oh, and as air travel becomes more affordable, that's when the A380 will start to make more sense too.
I think the A380 came a little bit too early.


Airbus created this simplistic myth and many keep repeating it. The concept is that congested airports will need a more A380's to increase the number of passengers per landing slot. The problem with this simple minded statement is that it assumes the only solution is at the upper end of the size spectrum ie. the A380. The fact is the average plane size has been increasing all along the spectrum from narrow body on up.Hundreds of A380's is not the way to solve the issue.


Does the A380 really have bad CASM? It doesn't seem like it because it has efficient engines and it burns only 1 kg/mile/person. But when the time to upgauge comes, there is definitely a need for an even more efficient VLA the size of the A380 or larger - because technology will be very mature by then.
To me, it will always be:
- Bombardier CSeries
- Airbus A321neoLR and A321neoXLR
- EMBRACER ERJ-170, ERJ-175, ERJ-190, and ERJ-195
- MITSUBUSHI MRJ

Anti narrowbody-long range-twinjet gang. Long live the A380 and 747!
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Sun Nov 25, 2018 10:00 pm

If the A-380 was very profitable it would be selling. Outside of EK there have been no follow on orders since Singapore for 5 back 6 years ago. That now appears to be a replacement order for the first 5 leased birds that are not being renewed.

Meanwhile things are great for the A321
 
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Sun Nov 25, 2018 10:41 pm

FlightLevel360 wrote:
SC430 wrote:
FlightLevel360 wrote:
Once airports really get congested, then the airlines will know the power and efficiency of the A380.
It's just that no airport is even remotely close to that level yet.
Oh, and as air travel becomes more affordable, that's when the A380 will start to make more sense too.
I think the A380 came a little bit too early.

Airbus created this simplistic myth and many keep repeating it. The concept is that congested airports will need a more A380's to increase the number of passengers per landing slot. The problem with this simple minded statement is that it assumes the only solution is at the upper end of the size spectrum ie. the A380. The fact is the average plane size has been increasing all along the spectrum from narrow body on up.Hundreds of A380's is not the way to solve the issue.

Does the A380 really have bad CASM? It doesn't seem like it because it has efficient engines and it burns only 1 kg/mile/person. But when the time to upgauge comes, there is definitely a need for an even more efficient VLA the size of the A380 or larger - because technology will be very mature by then.

Isn't the market answering that question for you?

If not, google led me to some numbers:

Image

Keep in mind the bigger airplane needs to have lower CASM than competition in order to deal with very real issues like yield dilution (more seats can lead to less profit on each).

And it's definitely not definite that there will be a need for an efficient VLA the size of the A380 or larger. For this to be true it would need to have breakthrough economics that could not be matched by smaller aircraft, and there would need to be enough city-pairs that produced enough traffic to justify the investment needed to make such an aircraft. It's hard to see those conditions being true any time soon.

Keep in mind when A380 was launched in 2000 the economics of 77W was not known. If they had been, I imagine it would not have been launched.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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Bald1983
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Mon Nov 26, 2018 12:27 am

ozglobal wrote:
Bald1983 wrote:
ozglobal wrote:

That's the accusation (usually from the other side of the Atlantic). I've never seen a source. Have you? Please provide, I'd be interested, since the French Government are small minority shareholder... or this is just propaganda.


Do you have any evidence that refutes it? Most airlines put the brakes on the A-380 purchases as they realized Airbus called it wrong on what the market would be. I have no intention bashing Airbus; they called it right with the A-350.


You state as a fact that "this was vanity purchase directed by the French Government..". That's a very specific allegation that AF is not running a commercial operation. Shareholders of this publicly listed company would be most interested. Burden of proof is with you. Do you withdraw the allegation or do you have a source?


Sorry, but your thinking is flawed, very flawed. Just because European vanity may have played a role in the purchase of the A-380, does not mean that the airlines are not commercial enterprises. I will give you an example: In the late sixties and early seventies many airlines in the United States, which were commercial enterprises, bought the 747 just to have the biggest and first wide body jet. Many of those airlines, Continental, Delta, to name two, got rid of them as they were too big for the route system they had at the time. It would help your thinking if you got that Anti America chip off your shoulder.
 
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Mon Nov 26, 2018 1:21 am

Revelation wrote:
FlightLevel360 wrote:
SC430 wrote:
Airbus created this simplistic myth and many keep repeating it. The concept is that congested airports will need a more A380's to increase the number of passengers per landing slot. The problem with this simple minded statement is that it assumes the only solution is at the upper end of the size spectrum ie. the A380. The fact is the average plane size has been increasing all along the spectrum from narrow body on up.Hundreds of A380's is not the way to solve the issue.

Does the A380 really have bad CASM? It doesn't seem like it because it has efficient engines and it burns only 1 kg/mile/person. But when the time to upgauge comes, there is definitely a need for an even more efficient VLA the size of the A380 or larger - because technology will be very mature by then.

Isn't the market answering that question for you?

If not, google led me to some numbers:

Image

Keep in mind the bigger airplane needs to have lower CASM than competition in order to deal with very real issues like yield dilution (more seats can lead to less profit on each).

And it's definitely not definite that there will be a need for an efficient VLA the size of the A380 or larger. For this to be true it would need to have breakthrough economics that could not be matched by smaller aircraft, and there would need to be enough city-pairs that produced enough traffic to justify the investment needed to make such an aircraft. It's hard to see those conditions being true any time soon.

Keep in mind when A380 was launched in 2000 the economics of 77W was not known. If they had been, I imagine it would not have been launched.

Your numbers are very interesting. The 779 uses 87.1% of the fuel per passenger. Or the A388 will use 14.8% more fuel per passenger.

If we assume fuel is roughly half the cost of flying, we expect the A388 to cost 7% more to fly minus efficiencies (which the A380 has many).
If we assume high yields, about 11%. If that is the 779 profit. For the A388 it would be 4% to 6%. Or the 779 will make about twice the profit of the A388 under this simple math.

Now the exact difference we can debate. But we should see more profit per flight with a 779 than the A388. The A388 is a great machine, but the sales timeline is over as it doesn't carry people cheap enough. As you note, the larger aircraft must have lower CASM. Not just lower CASM, but enough lower to justify the costs to carry those 130 more people. Sadly, it costs about 160 seats to carry 130 more.

Lightsaber
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Waterbomber
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Mon Nov 26, 2018 1:29 am

Revelation wrote:
FlightLevel360 wrote:
SC430 wrote:
Airbus created this simplistic myth and many keep repeating it. The concept is that congested airports will need a more A380's to increase the number of passengers per landing slot. The problem with this simple minded statement is that it assumes the only solution is at the upper end of the size spectrum ie. the A380. The fact is the average plane size has been increasing all along the spectrum from narrow body on up.Hundreds of A380's is not the way to solve the issue.

Does the A380 really have bad CASM? It doesn't seem like it because it has efficient engines and it burns only 1 kg/mile/person. But when the time to upgauge comes, there is definitely a need for an even more efficient VLA the size of the A380 or larger - because technology will be very mature by then.

Isn't the market answering that question for you?

If not, google led me to some numbers:

Image

Keep in mind the bigger airplane needs to have lower CASM than competition in order to deal with very real issues like yield dilution (more seats can lead to less profit on each).

And it's definitely not definite that there will be a need for an efficient VLA the size of the A380 or larger. For this to be true it would need to have breakthrough economics that could not be matched by smaller aircraft, and there would need to be enough city-pairs that produced enough traffic to justify the investment needed to make such an aircraft. It's hard to see those conditions being true any time soon.

Keep in mind when A380 was launched in 2000 the economics of 77W was not known. If they had been, I imagine it would not have been launched.


I disagree with almost everything on this post.
You can speak of yield dillution if you have a limited market on a specific direct O&D route with limited competition.

Open up Momondo and try to type in a long haul route between two major cities. You will find hundreds of flight options for any given route on dozens of airlines.
In a market with tens of thousands of seats available for any given route, operating a 600 seater instead of a 250 seater doesn't dillute yields, because those same 600 seats are also offered for other 1-stop route combinations with again tens of thoudands of options.
When you start thinking of the longhaul market as layers, with each layer representing the network of an airline, yield dillution is very limited and it's more a matter of how many tickets each airline can sell.
Within that market, there are airlines offering different volumes of seats and in different ways, so a bigger aircraft here and there doesn't automatically mean that you dillute yields, it can also be that you are forcing other carriers out of routes or that demand is increasing on specific routes or that there is an underlying unmet demand at a lower fare spectrum that could still be very profitable and more so than flying only a B777X with only pax in the higher fare spectrum.
In other words, lower fares increase demand, so it's up to each airline to develop yield management strategies to segment the demand.
If a seat on a given sector costs an airline 300 USD, they need to make sure each seat gets filled, and that someone that is willing to pay 500USD for that seat doesn't end up paying just 350USD, like other people who would only pay 350USD for that seat.
A bigger aircraft allows you to make money by taking market share, by selling a seat at 450 USD to a pax that would otherwise have paid 500 USD for a seat on a competitor's tight B787. You can keep doing this until the competitor's B787 starts to fly around empty seats.

About a competition between an A380 versus 2 B787's. Here too, the A380 operator can add a second A380 and force the B787 operator out of the market.
Why not?
It will be harder for the B787 operator to force the A380 operator out of the market, as the A380 operator can also add B787's.
 
EChid
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Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Mon Nov 26, 2018 1:56 am

musman9853 wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
hinckley wrote:

Right on.

I am neither an A-fanboy nor a B-fanboy, but I think the A380 fans have got this one all wrong. Of course it's a great airplane. But the entire VLA market is failing, with only one or two major carriers such as EK still interested in those aircraft. And that's impacting all the models in that market. Those who feel that they understand AF's needs better than AF may want to think more broadly about the VLA market. The 748 is already dead. And as others have said, the 779 may well follow the same fate. A380-like aircraft may fare better in 10 or 20 years. But not now.


Only time can tell but I think that we need to look to what the Chinese airlines will do.
Airbus can ramp up the A380 production rate fairly quickly. Before you know it CZ can order 30 of those and splash enough volume on Transsiberian and TPAC that some airlines are going to have to start looking for a different place to send their tiny B787's.
And then you can forget about what's the most efficient and the frequency or point to point mantra.
It becomes a matter of whom has the deepest pockets.


we know that 2 787s can carry more passengers and generate more profit than a single a380. why would chinese airlines buy a380s over 787s? its not like china has a problem expanding airports. one major advantage of a dictatorship is that they dont have to bother with proposals and voting, they can just sieze land to build new airports

Actually, China is one of the few good candidates for the A380 until they clean up their airspace practices. Given that the airspace is currently operated by the military which frequently causes extreme and fairly arbitrary delays, the issues there can theoretically worse if they have higher numbers of smaller planes. In other words, it's not about airports or runways, it's about numbers in the sky. Now, if China ran their airspace in the same way Europe or the US does, this would turn into a moot argument - but for now, their is value in having on A380 instead of 3 737s.
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Polot
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Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Mon Nov 26, 2018 2:24 am

EChid wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:

Only time can tell but I think that we need to look to what the Chinese airlines will do.
Airbus can ramp up the A380 production rate fairly quickly. Before you know it CZ can order 30 of those and splash enough volume on Transsiberian and TPAC that some airlines are going to have to start looking for a different place to send their tiny B787's.
And then you can forget about what's the most efficient and the frequency or point to point mantra.
It becomes a matter of whom has the deepest pockets.


we know that 2 787s can carry more passengers and generate more profit than a single a380. why would chinese airlines buy a380s over 787s? its not like china has a problem expanding airports. one major advantage of a dictatorship is that they dont have to bother with proposals and voting, they can just sieze land to build new airports

Actually, China is one of the few good candidates for the A380 until they clean up their airspace practices. Given that the airspace is currently operated by the military which frequently causes extreme and fairly arbitrary delays, the issues there can theoretically worse if they have higher numbers of smaller planes. In other words, it's not about airports or runways, it's about numbers in the sky. Now, if China ran their airspace in the same way Europe or the US does, this would turn into a moot argument - but for now, their is value in having on A380 instead of 3 737s.

Yet there are only 10 A380s operated by Chinese airlines (from an airline that has publicly struggled to profitably operate the plane in a domestic role). Meanwhile there are hundreds of A330s operated by the Chinese and a A330 completion center in China. Makes one wonder what the Chinese think their domestic widebody workhorse should be...

You are following the same false argument that growth can only occur at the upper end of the market discussed early. There are hundred upon hundreds of 737/A320s in China, and hundreds more on order, plus a growing high speed train network. There is a ton of potential 737/A320 -> 787/A330 upgauge available before Chinese airlines have to even consider A380s (which are also horribly optimized for short haul domestic use, but that is a different discussion).
Last edited by Polot on Mon Nov 26, 2018 2:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
notconcerned
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Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Mon Nov 26, 2018 5:57 am

Waterbomber wrote:
A bigger aircraft allows you to make money by taking market share, by selling a seat at 450 USD to a pax that would otherwise have paid 500 USD for a seat on a competitor's tight B787. You can keep doing this until the competitor's B787 starts to fly around empty seats.

About a competition between an A380 versus 2 B787's. Here too, the A380 operator can add a second A380 and force the B787 operator out of the market.
Why not?
It will be harder for the B787 operator to force the A380 operator out of the market, as the A380 operator can also add B787's.


What you're saying is effectively yield dilution. You're diluting your yields to defend against competition, selling a seat at 450USD when the market is willing to pay 500USD. That strategy is only effective in the short-term against new entrants. If that's the case, why isn't MH operating 2x daily A380 KUL-LHR and generating massive profits. They're preserving yield and profit and operating 2x A350 instead.

EChid wrote:
Actually, China is one of the few good candidates for the A380 until they clean up their airspace practices. Given that the airspace is currently operated by the military which frequently causes extreme and fairly arbitrary delays, the issues there can theoretically worse if they have higher numbers of smaller planes. In other words, it's not about airports or runways, it's about numbers in the sky. Now, if China ran their airspace in the same way Europe or the US does, this would turn into a moot argument - but for now, their is value in having on A380 instead of 3 737s.


Yes Chinese airspace is tightly restricted and causes cascading delays. But what incentive does a Chinese carrier have with a punctual A380 vs multiple delayed A320/737? Why not continue with the ATC delays if passengers are booking flights solely based on schedule and price. If anything, ATC delays probably push passengers to book high-speed rail instead.
 
tvarad
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Mon Nov 26, 2018 6:21 am

Revelation wrote:
Keep in mind when A380 was launched in 2000 the economics of 77W was not known. If they had been, I imagine it would not have been launched.


The market was already trending towards twin heavies when the A380 was launched. I personally remember a number of 747 routes that I used to fly in the 1990's being gradually replaced with 777's. But the Europeans were too obsessed with besting the 747 to take notice. They refuse to take responsibility for their own hubris and instead blame anything and everyone, including the engine makers for not letting them in on the ultra-efficient ones on the drawing board when the A380 was conceived.
 
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Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Mon Nov 26, 2018 6:30 am

notconcerned wrote:
Yes Chinese airspace is tightly restricted and causes cascading delays. But what incentive does a Chinese carrier have with a punctual A380 vs multiple delayed A320/737?


Particularly on short routes the A380 also suffers other disadvantages.

No way you can turn an aircraft in 30minutes, which reduces the number of flights the aircraft can operate in a day versus the narrow body.

It also impacts airport operations - in general greater separation required, particularly to other smaller aircraft, and at most airports they are restricted to certain runeays/taxiways and gates.

Note the above points (to a lesser degree) also apply to 330/787s etc which is why all the LCCs are generally operating the 737/320.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Mon Nov 26, 2018 6:34 am

Polot wrote:
Yet there are only 10 A380s operated by Chinese airlines.

CZ has just 5 A380‘s.
 
ozglobal
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Mon Nov 26, 2018 8:12 am

Bald1983 wrote:
ozglobal wrote:
Bald1983 wrote:

Do you have any evidence that refutes it? Most airlines put the brakes on the A-380 purchases as they realized Airbus called it wrong on what the market would be. I have no intention bashing Airbus; they called it right with the A-350.


You state as a fact that "this was vanity purchase directed by the French Government..". That's a very specific allegation that AF is not running a commercial operation. Shareholders of this publicly listed company would be most interested. Burden of proof is with you. Do you withdraw the allegation or do you have a source?


Sorry, but your thinking is flawed, very flawed. Just because European vanity may have played a role in the purchase of the A-380, does not mean that the airlines are not commercial enterprises. I will give you an example: In the late sixties and early seventies many airlines in the United States, which were commercial enterprises, bought the 747 just to have the biggest and first wide body jet. Many of those airlines, Continental, Delta, to name two, got rid of them as they were too big for the route system they had at the time. It would help your thinking if you got that Anti America chip off your shoulder.


I've asked for sources, rather than opinion twice. The response is just repeated deflections. You make unsupported allegations against AF integrity in decision making and government collusion and I am calling for evidence. How is that 'Anti-American' or must American's be allowed to attack without challenge? I can only assume that your negative characterisations are a chip on your shoulder.
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Revelation
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Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Mon Nov 26, 2018 12:52 pm

EChid wrote:
Actually, China is one of the few good candidates for the A380 until they clean up their airspace practices. Given that the airspace is currently operated by the military which frequently causes extreme and fairly arbitrary delays, the issues there can theoretically worse if they have higher numbers of smaller planes. In other words, it's not about airports or runways, it's about numbers in the sky. Now, if China ran their airspace in the same way Europe or the US does, this would turn into a moot argument - but for now, their is value in having on A380 instead of 3 737s.

I think that's some pretty flawed logic.

The A380's bad CASM gets worse when you fly it on shorter flights since you're burning lots of fuel to lift a big heavy plane that is big and heavy because it's built for long range thus lots of fuel, but on short routes you're not taking advantage of that capacity.

It doesn't make sense to suffer poor CASM all the time just to help deal with periods of poor access to airspace.

In March Macron went to China offering them a horse and an A380 finishing plant if they'd order A380s. They kept the horse and bought A320s. That should tell you all you need to know about how practicable the idea of China saving the A380 is.
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EChid
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Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Mon Nov 26, 2018 1:02 pm

Revelation wrote:
EChid wrote:
Actually, China is one of the few good candidates for the A380 until they clean up their airspace practices. Given that the airspace is currently operated by the military which frequently causes extreme and fairly arbitrary delays, the issues there can theoretically worse if they have higher numbers of smaller planes. In other words, it's not about airports or runways, it's about numbers in the sky. Now, if China ran their airspace in the same way Europe or the US does, this would turn into a moot argument - but for now, their is value in having on A380 instead of 3 737s.

I think that's some pretty flawed logic.

The A380's bad CASM gets worse when you fly it on shorter flights since you're burning lots of fuel to lift a big heavy plane that is big and heavy because it's built for long range thys lots of fuel but you're not taking advantage of that capacity.

It doesn't seem to make sense to suffer poor CASM all the time just to help deal with periods of poor access to airspace.

In March Macron went to China offering them a horse and an A380 finishing plant if they'd order A380s. They kept the horse and bought A320s. That should tell you all you need to know about how practicable the idea of China saving the A380 is.

Completely fair. China was their best hope. And as others have pointed out, it's better to have a random 12-hour delay on a 737 than an A380.
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Polot
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Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Mon Nov 26, 2018 1:09 pm

N14AZ wrote:
Polot wrote:
Yet there are only 10 A380s operated by Chinese airlines.

CZ has just 5 A380‘s.

You are right, my mistake.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Wed Nov 28, 2018 6:18 am

An article by Forbes on AF and the 380. If the flight hour cost of the 380 really is this high - just wow.

One estimate is that the A380 costs between $26,000 and $29,000 per hour to operate, compared to about $7400 an hour for the Boeing 777.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelgol ... ce091f16a4
 
moa999
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Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Wed Nov 28, 2018 6:28 am

Something doesn't add up in that.
Maybe the right ration for A380 to 737
 
ScottB
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Wed Nov 28, 2018 6:50 pm

ozglobal wrote:
Air France is a fully privatatized, publicly listed company and has been for decades.


Well, no, that's just not true. Air France Group was only partially privatized in 1999 when the French government sold about 17% of the carrier. The AF order for the A380 was placed in June, 2001; the French Republic was still majority owner of the airline group at that time. Government ownership only fell below 50% with the Air France-KLM merger, at which time the French government stake fell from 54% of Air France to 44% of the merged airline group -- not enough to control the carrier outright, but still enough to exercise effective control.

So, to sum up: The French government was still the majority owner at the time of the A380 order; it is perfectly reasonable to conclude that the company's majority owner directed it to purchase A380 as a vote of confidence in a program which would create thousands of French jobs. Just as a further point of fact, standalone Air France was never majority privately held between nationalization in 1945 and the merger with KLM.

ozglobal wrote:
Guess who was the launch customer for Boeing for the 77W? - AF. They operate around 70 777s, 43 of them 77W's.


And the French government was likely OK with the extensive purchases of 777s by AF because those 777s are GE-powered. Which company is the primary partner to GE for the GE 90? Snecma/Safran Aircraft Engines -- a French company.

FlightLevel360 wrote:
Does the A380 really have bad CASM? It doesn't seem like it because it has efficient engines and it burns only 1 kg/mile/person.


No, the A380 is quite efficient. The issue is that there are now smaller airliners on the market which offer similar or lower unit costs, and outside of slot/bilateral-restricted markets, it's preferable to operate smaller aircraft in order to capture higher yields (thanks to frequency and/or less need to discount the incremental seats offered by A380).
 
deltadc9
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Wed Nov 28, 2018 9:22 pm

Bald1983 wrote:
ozglobal wrote:
Bald1983 wrote:

Do you have any evidence that refutes it? Most airlines put the brakes on the A-380 purchases as they realized Airbus called it wrong on what the market would be. I have no intention bashing Airbus; they called it right with the A-350.


You state as a fact that "this was vanity purchase directed by the French Government..". That's a very specific allegation that AF is not running a commercial operation. Shareholders of this publicly listed company would be most interested. Burden of proof is with you. Do you withdraw the allegation or do you have a source?


Sorry, but your thinking is flawed, very flawed. Just because European vanity may have played a role in the purchase of the A-380, does not mean that the airlines are not commercial enterprises. I will give you an example: In the late sixties and early seventies many airlines in the United States, which were commercial enterprises, bought the 747 just to have the biggest and first wide body jet. Many of those airlines, Continental, Delta, to name two, got rid of them as they were too big for the route system they had at the time. It would help your thinking if you got that Anti America chip off your shoulder.


Range was the reason that US airlines and many others bought the early 747s, once other options came along, like the 767, 340, etc. they had options, until then it was the 747 if you needed max range.
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Wed Nov 28, 2018 9:59 pm

ScottB wrote:

No, the A380 is quite efficient. The issue is that there are now smaller airliners on the market which offer similar or lower unit costs, and outside of slot/bilateral-restricted markets, it's preferable to operate smaller aircraft in order to capture higher yields (thanks to frequency and/or less need to discount the incremental seats offered by A380).


Any way to make the current generation A380 have lower unit costs? That would basically solve the problem.
To me, it will always be:
- Bombardier CSeries
- Airbus A321neoLR and A321neoXLR
- EMBRACER ERJ-170, ERJ-175, ERJ-190, and ERJ-195
- MITSUBUSHI MRJ

Anti narrowbody-long range-twinjet gang. Long live the A380 and 747!
 
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Polot
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Wed Nov 28, 2018 10:26 pm

deltadc9 wrote:
Bald1983 wrote:
ozglobal wrote:

You state as a fact that "this was vanity purchase directed by the French Government..". That's a very specific allegation that AF is not running a commercial operation. Shareholders of this publicly listed company would be most interested. Burden of proof is with you. Do you withdraw the allegation or do you have a source?


Sorry, but your thinking is flawed, very flawed. Just because European vanity may have played a role in the purchase of the A-380, does not mean that the airlines are not commercial enterprises. I will give you an example: In the late sixties and early seventies many airlines in the United States, which were commercial enterprises, bought the 747 just to have the biggest and first wide body jet. Many of those airlines, Continental, Delta, to name two, got rid of them as they were too big for the route system they had at the time. It would help your thinking if you got that Anti America chip off your shoulder.


Range was the reason that US airlines and many others bought the early 747s, once other options came along, like the 767, 340, etc. they had options, until then it was the 747 if you needed max range.

No, range is the reason why many airlines ultimately bought the 747 in the mid 70s to early 90s. Vanity was very much the reason why many bought the 747 in the late 60s/early 70s. Most of the US airlines were just using them for domestic services and didn’t actually need the 747’s range. They just wanted the biggest jet around. That’s why quite a few dropped them after a few years and never migrated over to -200s.
 
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Thu Nov 29, 2018 1:15 am

Bald1983 wrote:
ozglobal wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
Air France never had the network to support A380 operations. This was a vanity purchase directed by the French Government to support Airbus as well as French and European manufacturers that supply parts for the A380. The good news here is that the move does point to AF finally getting serious about addressing its structural issues.


That's the accusation (usually from the other side of the Atlantic). I've never seen a source. Have you? Please provide, I'd be interested, since the French Government are small minority shareholder... or this is just propaganda.


Do you have any evidence that refutes it? Most airlines put the brakes on the A-380 purchases as they realized Airbus called it wrong on what the market would be. I have no intention bashing Airbus; they called it right with the A-350.


The problem with your statement is that Airbus didn't call the market right "with the A350". Boeing called it right and Airbus hurried a solution when they began to realize they completely screwed up the future market projections. Boeing was right all along, developed the 787, and forced Airbus to respond with the A350Mk1 (which was a loser), then the A350XWB. Then Airbus was caught flat-footed again; when they realized that the A350, A380 and A321was not enough, they pushed the A350Mk2 (also known as the A330NEO) when the 787 began to wipe out A330 sales and Boeing released the 777X
 
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flee
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Thu Nov 29, 2018 1:53 am

FlightLevel360 wrote:
ScottB wrote:
No, the A380 is quite efficient. The issue is that there are now smaller airliners on the market which offer similar or lower unit costs, and outside of slot/bilateral-restricted markets, it's preferable to operate smaller aircraft in order to capture higher yields (thanks to frequency and/or less need to discount the incremental seats offered by A380).

Any way to make the current generation A380 have lower unit costs? That would basically solve the problem.

Yes, stretch it!

However, airlines now prefer more frequency and stretching the A380 will mean consolidating flights (less frequency) to fill the bigger plane. As it is, some airlines already find it difficult to fill their current planes.
 
luckyone
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Thu Nov 29, 2018 2:17 am

deltadc9 wrote:
Bald1983 wrote:
ozglobal wrote:

You state as a fact that "this was vanity purchase directed by the French Government..". That's a very specific allegation that AF is not running a commercial operation. Shareholders of this publicly listed company would be most interested. Burden of proof is with you. Do you withdraw the allegation or do you have a source?


Sorry, but your thinking is flawed, very flawed. Just because European vanity may have played a role in the purchase of the A-380, does not mean that the airlines are not commercial enterprises. I will give you an example: In the late sixties and early seventies many airlines in the United States, which were commercial enterprises, bought the 747 just to have the biggest and first wide body jet. Many of those airlines, Continental, Delta, to name two, got rid of them as they were too big for the route system they had at the time. It would help your thinking if you got that Anti America chip off your shoulder.


Range was the reason that US airlines and many others bought the early 747s, once other options came along, like the 767, 340, etc. they had options, until then it was the 747 if you needed max range.

The early 747-100 models maxed out around 4600nm. DC-8-50 and -62s and certain models of the 707 could also make it a bit further than the earliest 747s. The statement holds when discussing later versions of the 747 such as the -200B and -400 and in particular why Asian airlines had fleets of them. But it does not hold for US Airlines because, unless I’m forgetting someone, only Brannif, Northwest Orient, Pan Am and TWA flew long-distance international routes at the time of the 747’s introduction.
 
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Thu Nov 29, 2018 5:37 am

FlySSC wrote:
Boair wrote:
stylo777 wrote:
which routes are currently served by AF 380s`?


JFK, LAX, JNB, MEX, ABJ, PVG year round and MIA/SFO seasonally


Add IAD to the list.

.
Not since September 30th. The 388s must be seasonal. They're now flying 773s.

No matter. Washington-Dulles *loves* AF.
 
YYZflyboy
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Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Thu Nov 29, 2018 6:38 am

Since AF-KL is under the same parent company, can KLM make the A380s work on their trunk roots because of slot-controlled issues?

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
I think this could lead to quite a interesting situation. AFAIK all previous A380 that came to the second hand market were part of the WWTT (Wrong Wired TwentyTwo, AFAIK now 17 left MSN006-0022 & 025). If I remember correctly the WWTT's fall outside of the standard A380 maintenance program, thus they are more expensive to maintain than later MSN's.
Air France doesn't have WWTT's, so when these five A380's come on the second hand market, they are representative for the second hand value of A380's. (They still could have the wing fix.)
Another interesting aspect is that they have the EA GP7000 engines, EK (Emirates) also will start bringing GP7000 powered A380's on the second hand market in the not to distant future. Thus a airline could acquire a fleet (>5) of A380's with the same type of engines, not a odd ball single A380. And there is potential for future same engine variants later to expand the fleet, if the Airline can make the A380 work well in their network.

I know two airport that are very slot restricted LHR (Heathrow) and AMS (Amsterdam Schiphol). LHR is restricted because it has only two runways. AMS is politically restricted to a max of 500 000 annual commercial flights.

If AF (Air France):
- can't make the (10) A380's work well in their network,
- they have to do a expensive cabin refurbishment,
- and they have a option to not extend lease (/buyback arrangement ??);
it's a smart move to reduce the A380 fleet.
But I expect a Sky Team partner or a Atlantic alliance partner (AF/KLM, Delta, VA (Virgin Atlantic) [& Alitalia]) could make the A380's work.
Didn't Turkish Airlines express interest in A380's earlier this year?

I still find it odd that EK is continuing ordering A380's while they can't utilize more than 100 form DXB, while the opening of DWC has been postponed. EK must be planning to replace A380's, or they must be planning to open another hub.

The A380 program is stuck between a rock and a hard place. The A380 with the current engines has already to much fuel capacity for most routes, thus a re-engine program (and small wing optimizations (the A380plus)) won't lower CASM a lot. AFAIK that's why Airbus only proposed the wing optimizations and cabin utilization optimizations. If Airbus asks a engine supplier to develop a new engine for the A380, they should also develop a new (smaller MTOW) wing for the A380. But $$$, Brexit & market uncertainty.

I also wonder if the A380plus cabin options could be introduced in older A380's during a cabin refurbishing project. Does anyone know if this is a option Airbus could offer?
And how difficult is it to swap the EA GP7000's for RR Trend 800's, that could be engines with the latest PIP's.
(RR's are more efficient than EA's aren't they?)
 
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Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Thu Nov 29, 2018 7:59 am

LAX772LR wrote:
SR380 wrote:
How is LAX or JNB doing?

Depending on the day, LAX receives an A388+77W+77E from AF, and that's while taking into account the capacity of 4 other airlines flying LAX-CDG.

...so while capacity doesn't equate to yields, they presumably can't be doing THAT bad, if they're still deciding to send it here despite all that capacity.



SR380 wrote:
Is CDG in the same situation?

No


I hope this continues, like JFK I’m glad we are so well served from all these different airlines and keeps rates in check. Relatively.
 
Cointrin330
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Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Thu Nov 29, 2018 5:26 pm

neutronstar73 wrote:
Bald1983 wrote:
ozglobal wrote:

That's the accusation (usually from the other side of the Atlantic). I've never seen a source. Have you? Please provide, I'd be interested, since the French Government are small minority shareholder... or this is just propaganda.


Do you have any evidence that refutes it? Most airlines put the brakes on the A-380 purchases as they realized Airbus called it wrong on what the market would be. I have no intention bashing Airbus; they called it right with the A-350.


The problem with your statement is that Airbus didn't call the market right "with the A350". Boeing called it right and Airbus hurried a solution when they began to realize they completely screwed up the future market projections. Boeing was right all along, developed the 787, and forced Airbus to respond with the A350Mk1 (which was a loser), then the A350XWB. Then Airbus was caught flat-footed again; when they realized that the A350, A380 and A321was not enough, they pushed the A350Mk2 (also known as the A330NEO) when the 787 began to wipe out A330 sales and Boeing released the 777X


My comments were not intended to be an A vs. B and who's plane is better. I was just pointing out that Air France is finally looking at its structure and addressing its problems which it has ignored for a long time.
 
Waterbomber
Posts: 849
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 11:51 am

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Thu Nov 29, 2018 6:01 pm

gunnerman wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
Only time can tell but I think that we need to look to what the Chinese airlines will do.
Airbus can ramp up the A380 production rate fairly quickly. Before you know it CZ can order 30 of those and splash enough volume on Transsiberian and TPAC that some airlines are going to have to start looking for a different place to send their tiny B787's.
And then you can forget about what's the most efficient and the frequency or point to point mantra.
It becomes a matter of whom has the deepest pockets.

The Chinese market is essentially high volume/low yield. A380s would add volume but put downward pressure on yields at a time when the Chinese carriers are looking to improve yields.


Chinese carriers are looking to improve volume and market share, they don't care about yields at all.
By the way, this applies to the general Chinese economy.
 
EChid
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Nov 03, 2017 4:00 am

Re: Air France to halve its A380 fleet

Thu Nov 29, 2018 6:22 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
Only time can tell but I think that we need to look to what the Chinese airlines will do.
Airbus can ramp up the A380 production rate fairly quickly. Before you know it CZ can order 30 of those and splash enough volume on Transsiberian and TPAC that some airlines are going to have to start looking for a different place to send their tiny B787's.
And then you can forget about what's the most efficient and the frequency or point to point mantra.
It becomes a matter of whom has the deepest pockets.

The Chinese market is essentially high volume/low yield. A380s would add volume but put downward pressure on yields at a time when the Chinese carriers are looking to improve yields.


Chinese carriers are looking to improve volume and market share, they don't care about yields at all.
By the way, this applies to the general Chinese economy.

They do care about yields as well, especially as fuel rises and the companies mature. Air China formed a JV with AC to help with that issue, and airlines like Hainan, being under the financially precarious HNA group, absolutely do care about what yields they are getting. Arguably Delta's close tie-up with China Eastern and AA's recent news with China Southern is also meant to help with that issue. They care.
2018: DRW-PER-HKG-ICN-MEL-AVV-BNE-OOL-SYD-YYZ-YYZ-YUL-YVR-PDX-SEA-SFO-PEK-KIX-CDG-IST-NRT-HND-BKK-FAT; AC J-TK J-OZ F-DL F-TG J/F-NH J/F-CX J-VA J
 
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N717TW
Posts: 540
Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2016 9:24 pm

Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Thu Nov 29, 2018 7:53 pm

Revelation wrote:
mercure1 wrote:

The AF reduction of the order from 12 to 10 should have been a clue, given they should have had attractive launch pricing.

The same clue goes for LH, who also cut a few frames and says it has no plans to take more.


Not only the cancellation of the final two orders but also the comments that Delta's then CEO Richard Anderson used to make all the time on the investor calls about how bad the A380 was from a financial perspective and how he was personally pushing AF to keep them off the JV routes as much as possible.
 
global2
Posts: 499
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:50 am

Re: Air France will half it's A380 fleet

Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:24 pm

luckyone wrote:
deltadc9 wrote:
Bald1983 wrote:

Sorry, but your thinking is flawed, very flawed. Just because European vanity may have played a role in the purchase of the A-380, does not mean that the airlines are not commercial enterprises. I will give you an example: In the late sixties and early seventies many airlines in the United States, which were commercial enterprises, bought the 747 just to have the biggest and first wide body jet. Many of those airlines, Continental, Delta, to name two, got rid of them as they were too big for the route system they had at the time. It would help your thinking if you got that Anti America chip off your shoulder.


Range was the reason that US airlines and many others bought the early 747s, once other options came along, like the 767, 340, etc. they had options, until then it was the 747 if you needed max range.

The early 747-100 models maxed out around 4600nm. DC-8-50 and -62s and certain models of the 707 could also make it a bit further than the earliest 747s. The statement holds when discussing later versions of the 747 such as the -200B and -400 and in particular why Asian airlines had fleets of them. But it does not hold for US Airlines because, unless I’m forgetting someone, only Brannif, Northwest Orient, Pan Am and TWA flew long-distance international routes at the time of the 747’s introduction.


I would theorize that in the 60's, the decision to buy the 747 wasn't just about "pride" for the domestic carriers. It was just about ten years prior to the 747's first flight that jets began service. No major carrier would consider not having jets lest they would soon lose out. I can imagine that all the airlines were afraid to be left behind again and so went for the 747. Mind you there was nothing in between the 707 / DC-8 and the 747 to upgauge to yet. And why not? Air travel was growing at a dizzying pace in the 60's. But just three years after the 747 entered service the DC-10 & L-1011 came along and provided the domestic carriers a more appropriately sized aircraft to upgauge to.

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