FAQ

AS OF JULY 2018 THERE ARE CHANGES TO THE FORMAT OF THIS REPORT...SEE BELOW

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...prior year departures are now shown in brackets e.g. [0].

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5[4] JAN 4>5[4]
XXX Departure IATA code, YYY Arrival IATA code, Month, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of last week, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of this week, in brackets is the number of Average Departures/Day over the month that were scheduled one year earlier. So, it means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. It also means that there were 4 roundtrips the prior year in each month. No other months were changed. I average two directions.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
NEW CHANGE-Sometimes airlines do not load their schedules for the entire 330 day standard sales window. Southwest and many LCCs load their schedules for as little as 5 months into the future. When these flight are extended into a new sales month, it becomes a "schedule change". Previously, I have manually deleted these in many cases and replaced them with a Year-Over-Year compare. Effective immediately, this will now change. When a flight is loaded from 0 departures X departures, where X was the same the prior year, the record will not be shown. For example, if Delta loaded ATL-EGE MAR 0>1(1), it would not be shown because this additional flight does not represent a real year-over-year addition. Similarly, if B6 extended their schedule a record like this ATL-BOS JUL 0>4(4) would not be shown. It will be shown if the flight frequency changed from the prior year. So B6 ATL-BOS JUL 0>3(4) would be shown. If a partial month was loaded in a core schedule that became a full schedule month, those changes may be shown under this logic. For example, WN BNA-SEA 0.3>2(2). Because only a fraction of the month was previously loaded for sale, these changes will not be filtered out. I may, however, manually remove them to declutter.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month. The following criteria are used to show a change: 1) The change must be at least 6 roundtrips per month with no exceptions, 2) changes of at least 6/week are always shown, 3) routes that are added or dropped are shown subject to the change minimum, and 4) in all other cases routes must change by 20% to be shown. For example, if a route changed from 21/week to 18/week it would not be shown because the change is -14.3%. This is done to filter minor changes that occur in large numbers.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. If the route has more than 2 daily flights, departures are rounded, but in cases of less than 2 departures per day a fraction is shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
Seats are not shown. That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard or overlapping schedule periods that see the same flight number in two places at once. These cause flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

*4B BOS-MSS JAN 0.5>3[0] FEB 0>3[0] MAR 0>3[0]

7H ANI-CHU DEC 0.4>0.7[0.4] JAN 0.4>0.7[0.4] FEB 0.4>0.7[0.4] MAR 0.4>0.7[0.4] APR 0.4>0.7[0.4] MAY 0.4>0.7[0.4] JUN 0.4>0.7[0.4] JUL 0.4>0.7[0.4] AUG 0.4>0.7[0.4]
7H ANI-SLQ DEC 0.2>0[0.2] JAN 0.2>0[0.2] FEB 0.2>0[0.2] MAR 0.2>0[0.2] APR 0.2>0[0.2] MAY 0.2>0[0.2] JUN 0.2>0[0.2] JUL 0.2>0[0.2] AUG 0.2>0[0.2]
7H ANI-SRV DEC 0.2>0.7[0.2] JAN 0.2>0.7[0.2] FEB 0.2>0.7[0.2] MAR 0.2>0.7[0.2] APR 0.2>0.7[0.2] MAY 0.2>0.7[0.2] JUN 0.2>0.7[0.2] JUL 0.2>0.7[0.2] AUG 0.2>0.7[0.2]
7H BET-EEK DEC 1.7>0.4[1.7] JAN 1.8>0.4[1.7] FEB 1.8>0.4[1.8] MAR 1.8>0.4[1.8] APR 1.8>0.4[1.8] MAY 1.8>0.4[1.8] JUN 1.8>0.4[1.8] JUL 1.8>0.4[1.7] AUG 1.8>0.4[1.8]
7H BET-KPN DEC 1.3>1.8[1.3] JAN 1.4>1.8[1.3] FEB 1.4>1.9[1.4] MAR 1.3>1.8[1.4] APR 1.4>1.9[1.3] MAY 1.4>1.8[1.4] JUN 1.3>1.8[1.4] JUL 1.4>1.8[1.3] AUG 1.4>1.9[1.4]
7H BET-KWK DEC 0.9>1.4[0.9] JAN 0.9>1.4[0.9] FEB 0.9>1.4[0.9] MAR 0.9>1.4[0.9] APR 0.9>1.4[0.9] MAY 0.9>1.4[0.9] JUN 0.9>1.4[0.9] JUL 0.9>1.4[0.9] AUG 0.9>1.4[0.9]
7H BET-MYU DEC 1.0>0[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[1.0] MAR 1.0>0[1.0] APR 1.0>0[1.0] MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0]
7H BET-OOK DEC 1.0>0[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[1.0] MAR 1.0>0[1.0] APR 1.0>0[1.0] MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0]
7H BET-WTL DEC 2>1.4[3] JAN 2>1.4[3] FEB 2>1.4[3] MAR 2>1.4[2] APR 2>1.4[2] MAY 2>1.4[2] JUN 2>1.4[2] JUL 2>1.4[2] AUG 2>1.4[2]
7H CHU-CKD DEC 0.4>0.7[0.4] JAN 0.4>0.7[0.4] FEB 0.4>0.7[0.4] MAR 0.4>0.7[0.4] APR 0.4>0.7[0.4] MAY 0.4>0.7[0.4] JUN 0.4>0.7[0.4] JUL 0.4>0.7[0.4] AUG 0.4>0.7[0.4]
7H CKD-RDV DEC 0.2>0.7[0.2] JAN 0.2>0.7[0.2] FEB 0.2>0.7[0.2] MAR 0.2>0.7[0.2] APR 0.2>0.7[0.2] MAY 0.2>0.7[0.2] JUN 0.2>0.7[0.2] JUL 0.2>0.7[0.2] AUG 0.2>0.7[0.2]
7H CKD-SLQ DEC 0.2>0[0.2] JAN 0.2>0[0.2] FEB 0.2>0[0.2] MAR 0.2>0[0.2] APR 0.2>0[0.2] MAY 0.2>0[0.2] JUN 0.2>0[0.2] JUL 0.2>0[0.2] AUG 0.2>0[0.2]
7H EEK-KWN DEC 1.3>1.8[1.7] JAN 1.4>1.8[1.7] FEB 1.4>1.9[1.8] MAR 1.3>1.8[1.4] APR 1.4>1.9[1.4] MAY 1.4>1.8[1.4] JUN 1.3>1.8[1.4] JUL 1.4>1.8[1.3] AUG 1.4>1.9[1.4]
7H EEK-WTL DEC 0.4>1.4[0] JAN 0.4>1.4[0] FEB 0.4>1.4[0] MAR 0.4>1.4[0.4] APR 0.4>1.4[0.4] MAY 0.4>1.4[0.4] JUN 0.4>1.4[0.4] JUL 0.4>1.4[0.4] AUG 0.4>1.4[0.4]
7H FAI-RBY DEC 0.6>1.0[0.6] JAN 0.6>1.0[0.6] FEB 0.6>1.0[0.6] MAR 0.7>1.0[0.6] APR 0.6>1.0[0.7] MAY 0.6>1.0[0.6] JUN 0.7>1.0[0.7] JUL 0.6>1.0[0.6] AUG 0.6>1.0[0.6]
7H GAL-RBY DEC 0.6>1.0[0.6] JAN 0.6>1.0[0.6] FEB 0.6>1.0[0.6] MAR 0.7>1.0[0.6] APR 0.6>1.0[0.7] MAY 0.6>1.0[0.6] JUN 0.7>1.0[0.7] JUL 0.6>1.0[0.6] AUG 0.6>1.0[0.6]
7H GAM-OME DEC 0.9>1.4[0.9] JAN 0.9>1.4[0.9] FEB 0.9>1.4[0.9] MAR 0.9>1.4[0.9] APR 0.9>1.4[0.9] MAY 0.9>1.4[0.9] JUN 0.9>1.4[0.9] JUL 0.9>1.4[0.9] AUG 0.9>1.4[0.9]
7H GAM-SVA DEC 0.9>1.4[0.9] JAN 0.9>1.4[0.9] FEB 0.9>1.4[0.9] MAR 0.9>1.4[0.9] APR 0.9>1.4[0.9] MAY 0.9>1.4[0.9] JUN 0.9>1.4[0.9] JUL 0.9>1.4[0.9] AUG 0.9>1.4[0.9]
7H KKA-SKK DEC 1.0>1.4[1.0] JAN 1.0>1.4[1.0] FEB 1.0>1.4[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.4[1.0] APR 1.0>1.4[1.0] MAY 1.0>1.4[1.0] JUN 1.0>1.4[1.0] JUL 1.0>1.4[1.0] AUG 1.0>1.4[1.0]
7H KKA-UNK DEC 1.0>1.4[1.0] JAN 1.0>1.4[1.0] FEB 1.0>1.4[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.4[1.0] APR 1.0>1.4[1.0] MAY 1.0>1.4[1.0] JUN 1.0>1.4[1.0] JUL 1.0>1.4[1.0] AUG 1.0>1.4[1.0]
7H KPN-KWK DEC 0.5>0[0.5] JAN 0.5>0[0.5] FEB 0.5>0[0.5] MAR 0.5>0[0.5] APR 0.5>0[0.5] MAY 0.5>0[0.5] JUN 0.5>0[0.5] JUL 0.5>0[0.5] AUG 0.5>0[0.5]
7H MYU-NME DEC 0>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>1.0[0] MAR 0>1.0[0] APR 0>1.0[0] MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0]
7H NME-TNK DEC 1.0>0[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[1.0] MAR 1.0>0[1.0] APR 1.0>0[1.0] MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0]
7H OME-SKK DEC 0.3>0[0.3] JAN 0.4>0[0.4] FEB 0.4>0[0.4] MAR 0.3>0[0.4] APR 0.4>0[0.4] MAY 0.4>0[0.4] JUN 0.3>0[0.4] JUL 0.4>0[0.3] AUG 0.4>0[0.3]
7H OME-SVA DEC 0.9>1.4[0.9] JAN 0.9>1.4[0.9] FEB 0.9>1.4[0.9] MAR 0.9>1.4[0.9] APR 0.9>1.4[0.9] MAY 0.9>1.4[0.9] JUN 0.9>1.4[0.9] JUL 0.9>1.4[0.9] AUG 0.9>1.4[0.9]
7H OME-WBB DEC 1.3>1.6[1.3] JAN 1.4>1.7[1.3] FEB 1.4>1.7[1.4] MAR 1.3>1.7[1.4] APR 1.4>1.7[1.4] MAY 1.4>1.7[1.4] JUN 1.3>1.7[1.4] JUL 1.4>1.7[1.3] AUG 1.4>1.7[1.3]
7H OOK-TNK DEC 0.4>1.4[0.4] JAN 0.4>1.4[0.4] FEB 0.4>1.4[0.4] MAR 0.4>1.4[0.4] APR 0.4>1.4[0.4] MAY 0.4>1.4[0.4] JUN 0.4>1.4[0.4] JUL 0.4>1.4[0.4] AUG 0.4>1.4[0.4]
7H RDV-SLQ DEC 0.2>0.7[0.2] JAN 0.2>0.7[0.2] FEB 0.2>0.7[0.2] MAR 0.2>0.7[0.2] APR 0.2>0.7[0.2] MAY 0.2>0.7[0.2] JUN 0.2>0.7[0.2] JUL 0.2>0.7[0.2] AUG 0.2>0.7[0.2]
7H SLQ-SRV DEC 0.2>0.7[0.2] JAN 0.2>0.7[0.2] FEB 0.2>0.7[0.2] MAR 0.2>0.7[0.2] APR 0.2>0.7[0.2] MAY 0.2>0.7[0.2] JUN 0.2>0.7[0.2] JUL 0.2>0.7[0.2] AUG 0.2>0.7[0.2]
7H UNK-WBB DEC 0.9>0.5[0.9] JAN 0.9>0.5[0.9] FEB 0.9>0.5[0.9] MAR 0.9>0.5[0.9] APR 0.9>0.5[0.9] MAY 0.9>0.5[0.9] JUN 0.9>0.5[0.9] JUL 0.9>0.5[0.9] AUG 0.9>0.5[0.9]

AA ASE-DFW JUN 1.0>1.8[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[0.9] AUG 1.0>2[1.0]
AA BOI-PHX APR 4>2[4] MAY 4>2[4] JUN 4>2[4] JUL 4>2[4] AUG 4>2[3]
AA BZN-ORD JUN 0>0.8[0.9] JUL 0>1.0[1.1] AUG 0>1.0[1.1]
AA CAE-DFW JUN 1.8>2[1.8] JUL 1.9>2[1.9] AUG 1.8>2[1.9]
AA CHS-DFW JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3] AUG 3>4[3]
*AA CLT-HAV APR 1.0>0[1.0] MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[0.9] AUG 1.0>0[1.0]
AA DFW-EGE JUN 0.8>1.7[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0]
AA DFW-GCM MAR 1.3>1.0[0.3]
AA DFW-GSO JUN 1.8>3[3] JUL 1.9>3[3] AUG 1.8>3[2]
AA DFW-GSP JUN 2>3[2.0] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 2>3[2]
AA DFW-LAS MAY 10>11[9] JUN 10>12[10] JUL 10>12[10] AUG 10>12[9]
AA DFW-MTJ JUN 1.8>3[1.8] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 2>3[1.6]
AA DFW-ORF JUN 2>3[3] JUL 2>3[3] AUG 2>3[3]
AA DFW-TLH JUN 2>3[2.0] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 2>3[2]
AA JAC-ORD JUN 0.8>1.7[0.8] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0]
AA KIN-MIA JUN 3>2[3] JUL 4>3[4]
AA MIA-RSW JAN 2>1.5[0.3]
AA MIA-SNU JUN 1.0>1.8[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0]
AA MTJ-PHX JUN 1.7>0.8[0.8] JUL 2>1.0[1.0] AUG 1.2>0.6[1.0]

AM GDL-LAX FEB 1.0>1.3[2] MAR 1.0>1.3[2.0]

DL ATL-TLH JUL 6>8[6] AUG 7>8[6]
DL BOS-CHS APR 0.7>1.0[0.1] MAY 0.7>1.0[0.1]
DL COS-SLC JUN 2>3[1.5] JUL 2>3[1.6] AUG 2>3[1.8]
DL DFW-LGA APR 6>5[6] MAY 6>5[6] JUN 6>5[6]
They just added this didn't they?
*DL IAD-SEA JUN 1.3>0.8[0.8] JUL 2>1.0[1.0] AUG 2>1.0[1.0]
DL JFK-PDL JUN 0.7>1.0[0.7] JUL 0.7>1.0[0.7] AUG 0.7>1.0[0.7]
DL JFK-SAV APR 3>2[2] MAY 3>1.9[2] JUN 3>2[2]
DL LAX-RDU APR 1.9>1.4[1.7]
DL MSP-RHI JUN 2>3[2] JUL 2>3[2.0]
DL SLC-WYS MAY 0.3>1.0[0.5]

DY CDG-LAX APR 0.9>1.1[0.5] MAY 0.9>1.2[0.9] JUN 0.8>1.1[0.9] JUL 0.9>1.1[0.8] AUG 0.9>1.2[0.9]
*DY JFK-MAD APR 0>0.6[0] MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0.2] AUG 0>1.0[0.4]
*DY LAX-MAD APR 0>0.4[0] MAY 0>0.6[0] JUN 0>0.6[0] JUL 0>0.6[0.3] AUG 0>0.5[0.6]

F9 BKG-DEN APR 0>0.3[0]
F9 DEN-MSO MAR 0>0.2[0] APR 0>0.6[0]
F9 ISP-MYR APR 0>0.5[0]
F9 MYR-TTN APR 0>0.4[0]

LF LAS-PGA JAN 0.1>0.5[0]
LF PGA-PHX JAN 0.3>1.3[0]

*LV EWR-ORY APR 0>0.6[0] MAY 0>0.6[0] JUN 0>0.5[0] JUL 0>0.6[0] AUG 0>0.5[0]

SY DEN-MSP MAY 0>0.7[0.9]
SY MSP-PHX MAY 0>0.8[0.9]

TR HNL-KIX JUN 0.6>0[0.6] JUL 0.6>0[0.6] AUG 0.6>0[0.5]

Frequency pops back after last week's erroneous (?) cuts
UA ABQ-IAH APR 4>5[4]
UA ABQ-ORD APR 0.6>1.1[1.0]
UA ALB-ORD APR 3>4[4]
UA ATL-IAH APR 5>6[6]
UA ATL-ORD APR 4>7[7]
UA AUS-DEN APR 4>5[5]
UA BDL-ORD APR 2>4[4]
UA BHM-IAH APR 3>5[5]
UA BNA-EWR APR 5>6[4]
UA BNA-IAH APR 4>6[5]
UA BRO-ORD APR 0.0>0.3[0]
UA BTV-ORD APR 1.2>3[3]
UA BUF-EWR APR 5>6[5]
UA BUF-ORD APR 3>4[4]
UA BWI-SFO MAY 1.4>1.9[2] JUN 1.3>1.8[1.3] JUL 1.4>1.9[1.9]
UA CAK-IAH APR 0.1>1.0[0]
UA CHS-IAD APR 3>4[4]
UA CID-ORD APR 4>5[5]
UA CLT-ORD APR 4>5[4]
UA CMH-EWR APR 5>6[5]
UA CMH-ORD APR 6>7[7]
UA COS-IAH APR 1.9>3[2]
UA CRP-IAH APR 5>7[6]
UA CRW-ORD APR 2>3[1.6]
UA CVG-EWR APR 3>5[5]
UA CVG-IAD MAR 2>3[4]
UA CVG-IAH APR 2>4[4]
UA CVG-ORD APR 2>6[7]
UA DAY-EWR APR 0.5>1.0[2.0]
UA DAY-IAD APR 1.5>2[1.5]
UA DAY-ORD APR 5>6[7]
UA DCA-ORD APR 13>14[14]
UA DEN-DFW APR 4>5[5]
UA DEN-GJT APR 3>5[4]
UA DEN-IAH APR 9>10[10] MAY 9>10[10]
UA DEN-IND APR 1.1>3[3]
UA DEN-LNK APR 2>3[2]
UA DEN-MTJ APR 1.5>3[3]
UA DEN-OMA APR 3>5[5]
UA DEN-ORD APR 9>10[10] MAY 10>11[11] JUN 11>12[12] JUL 12>13[12] AUG 12>13[12]
**UA DEN-PAE APR 0>2[0] MAY 0>2[0] JUN 0>2[0] JUL 0>2[0] AUG 0>2[0]
UA DEN-SLC APR 5>6[6]
UA DEN-STL APR 4>5[5]
UA DEN-YEG APR 1.1>2[1.9]
UA DSM-ORD APR 6>7[5]
UA DTW-IAH APR 3>5[4]
UA DTW-ORD APR 5>7[7]
UA ELP-ORD APR 1.5>2[1.5]
UA EWR-FLL APR 7>8[8]
UA EWR-GRR APR 1.1>2[2.0]
UA EWR-IND APR 4>6[6]
UA EWR-JAX APR 4>5[4]
UA EWR-PBI APR 8>9[8] JUL 4>5[5] AUG 4>5[5]
UA EWR-PHX MAY 2>3[3]
UA EWR-SFO MAY 14>15[14] JUN 14>15[13] JUL 14>15[14] AUG 14>15[13]
UA EWR-SMF APR 1.0>0.7[0.6]
UA EWR-SNA APR 2>3[2] MAY 1.7>3[3] JUN 1.7>3[3] JUL 1.7>3[3] AUG 1.7>3[3]
UA EWR-YQB MAR 1.6>3[2]
UA FAI-ORD MAY 0>1.0[0]
UA FNT-ORD MAY 3>4[3] JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3] AUG 3>4[3]
UA GRR-IAH APR 1.0>1.8[1.0]
UA GSP-IAD APR 2>3[3]
UA HRL-IAH APR 2>4[4]
UA IAD-MSY APR 2.0>3[3] MAY 1.5>2[3] JUN 1.5>2[2] JUL 1.5>2[2] AUG 1.5>2[2]
UA IAD-ORF APR 1.2>4[4]
UA IAD-PHX APR 0.5>1.0[1.0] MAY 0.5>1.0[1.0] JUN 0.5>1.0[1.0] JUL 0.5>1.0[1.0] AUG 0.5>1.0[1.0]
UA IAD-PVD APR 2>3[3]
UA IAD-SAV APR 2>3[4]
UA IAD-SYR APR 1.1>3[3]
UA IAD-YUL APR 2>3[3]
UA IAH-IND APR 3>4[4]
UA IAH-MCI APR 2>5[5]
UA IAH-MEM APR 4>5[4]
UA IAH-MFE APR 6>7[5]
UA IAH-MIA APR 3>4[5]
UA IAH-MKE APR 1.0>1.9[1.9]
UA IAH-MOB FEB 5>4[5]
UA IAH-MSP APR 2>5[5]
UA IAH-NAS JAN 0.3>0.5[0.3] FEB 0.1>0.4[0.1]
UA IAH-OKC APR 6>7[8]
UA IAH-OMA APR 3>4[4]
UA IAH-PHL APR 4>5[4]
UA IAH-PIT APR 4>5[4]
UA IAH-PNS APR 4>5[5]
UA IAH-RDU APR 3>4[4]
UA IAH-RSW APR 2>3[2] MAY 1.5>2[2] JUN 1.5>2[1.3] JUL 1.5>2[1.1] AUG 1.5>2[1.1]
UA IAH-SAV APR 0.1>2[1.0]
UA IAH-SDF APR 1.9>4[3]
UA IAH-SLC APR 1.6>4[4]
UA IAH-XNA APR 3>5[4]
UA ICT-ORD JAN 3>4[4]
UA IND-ORD APR 8>10[9]
UA LAS-LAX APR 4>5[4]
UA LAX-SBP MAY 2>3[4]
UA LAX-SEA APR 1.5>2[2] MAY 1.5>2[2] JUN 1.5>2[2] JUL 1.5>2[2] AUG 1.5>2[2]
UA LEX-ORD FEB 3>4[3]
UA LGA-ORD APR 14>16[16] MAY 14>16[16] JUN 14>15[16] JUL 14>16[15] AUG 14>15[16]
UA LIT-ORD APR 1.7>3[3]
UA MDT-ORD APR 0.7>4[3]
UA MEM-ORD APR 2>4[4]
UA MFR-SFO JUN 3>4[5] JUL 3>4[5] AUG 3>4[5]
UA MSP-SFO MAY 2>3[1.7]
UA MYR-ORD JUN 0>0.8[0.3] JUL 0>1.0[0.3] AUG 0>0.6[0.2]
UA OKC-ORD APR 1.6>3[3]
UA ORD-ORF APR 2>3[3]
UA ORD-PIA MAY 4>5[3] JUN 4>5[4] JUL 4>5[4] AUG 4>5[2]
UA ORD-PIT MAY 5>6[6] JUN 5>6[6] JUL 5>6[6] AUG 5>6[6]
UA ORD-PVD APR 1.1>3[2]
UA ORD-PWM APR 0.6>1.9[2]
UA ORD-RIC APR 3>4[5]
UA ORD-RNO MAY 0.3>1.0[0]
UA ORD-ROC APR 3>4[4]
UA ORD-SCE APR 2>3[2]
UA ORD-STL APR 6>9[8]
UA ORD-SYR APR 3>4[4]
*UA PAE-SFO APR 0>4[0] MAY 0>4[0] JUN 0>4[0] JUL 0>4[0] AUG 0>4[0]
UA SFO-YVR JUN 4>5[5] JUL 4>5[5] AUG 4>5[5]

VB GDL-LAX MAY 0>1.0[0.8]
*VB IAH-MTY JAN 0.4>0.7[0.5] APR 0>0.9[0.4] MAY 0>1.0[0.3]
*VB JFK-MEX APR 0>1.0[0] MAY 0>1.0[0]
VB LAS-MEX MAY 0>1.0[0.9]
VB LAX-MTY DEC 0>0.2[0]

VC AMA-AUS DEC 0.8>0.6[0] JAN 0.4>0.8[0] FEB 0.4>0.9[0]
VC AUS-LIT DEC 0.8>0.5[0]
VC AUS-OKC DEC 0.8>0.3[0]
VC AUS-TUL DEC 0.8>0.5[0]
VC CAE-SFB DEC 0.5>0.2[0]
VC CLT-SFB DEC 0.3>0[0.3] JAN 0.3>0[0.3] FEB 0.3>0[0.3] MAR 0.2>0[0.3] APR 0.2>0[0.4] MAY 0.2>0[0.5] JUN 0.2>0[0.6] JUL 0.2>0[0.5] AUG 0.2>0[0.6]
VC CLT-UST DEC 0.3>0[0.3] JAN 0.3>0[0.3] FEB 0.3>0[0.3] MAR 0.3>0[0.3] APR 0.3>0[0.3] MAY 0.3>0[0.3] JUN 0.3>0[0.3] JUL 0.3>0[0.3] AUG 0.3>0[0.3]
VC MGM-SFB DEC 0.3>0[0]
VC MOB-SFB DEC 0.6>0.4[0]
VC SFB-TLH DEC 0.3>0[0]

VH MDE-MIA DEC 0>1.0[0] JAN 0>0.8[0] FEB 0>0.6[0] MAR 0>0.6[0] APR 0>0.6[0] MAY 0>0.6[0] JUN 0>0.6[0] JUL 0>0.6[0] AUG 0>0.5[0.6]
VH MIA-SMR DEC 0>0.2[0] JAN 0>0.4[0] FEB 0>0.3[0] MAR 0>0.3[0] APR 0>0.4[0] MAY 0>0.4[0] JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0] AUG 0>0.5[0]

VVC MDE-MIA DEC 1.0>0[1.0] JAN 0.8>0[0.8] FEB 0.6>0[0.3] MAR 0.6>0[0.4] APR 0.6>0[0.5] MAY 0.6>0[0.4] JUN 0.6>0[0.6] JUL 0.6>0[0.7] AUG 0.5>0[0]
VVC MIA-SMR DEC 0.2>0[0] JAN 0.4>0[0] FEB 0.3>0[0] MAR 0.3>0[0] APR 0.4>0[0] MAY 0.4>0[0] JUN 0.4>0[0] JUL 0.4>0[0] AUG 0.5>0[0]

*WO LAS-YEG MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0]

Interesting DY trying MAD-LAX. Is this only seasonal or will it be year round?

Irehdna wrote:

Interesting DY trying MAD-LAX. Is this only seasonal or will it be year round?

The route inaugurated last July and operates 3x/w ever since. MAD-JFK is 4x/w also since July 2018. There are no changes here. Flights are only bookable until March 2019. FLL was announced too, never started all together with the winter drop of the BCN-FLL. Since MAD isn't a long-haul hub for DY, they may be rethinking its strategy for the next S19 coming. We'll see...

a350lover wrote:

Irehdna wrote:

Interesting DY trying MAD-LAX. Is this only seasonal or will it be year round?

The route inaugurated last July and operates 3x/w ever since. MAD-JFK is 4x/w also since July 2018. There are no changes here. Flights are only bookable until March 2019. FLL was announced too, never started all together with the winter drop of the BCN-FLL. Since MAD isn't a long-haul hub for DY, they may be rethinking its strategy for the next S19 coming. We'll see...

Basically they have never operated APR-JUN before this load. Now we know it is probably yearround.

Looking at their loads... they have been performing quite good in both routes. Iberia is the one suffering on the MAD-LAX leg, which they haven't yet fully established on a year round basis. They keep it through the winter season, although just 3x week.

So am I correct in seeing UA isn’t starting PAE service until April? Seems to be almost two months after Alaska... meaning two months of unused valuable slots

joeblow10 wrote:

So am I correct in seeing UA isn’t starting PAE service until April? Seems to be almost two months after Alaska... meaning two months of unused valuable slots

Aside from Alaska the slots don’t seem too valuable to anyone else. I’m guessing UA held off out of convenience.

enilria wrote:

DL JFK-PDL JUN 0.7>1.0[0.7] JUL 0.7>1.0[0.7] AUG 0.7>1.0[0.7]

Surprised the first season of this was so successful to add more frequency already.

joeblow10 wrote:

So am I correct in seeing UA isn’t starting PAE service until April? Seems to be almost two months after Alaska... meaning two months of unused valuable slots

Don't forget that AS doesn't ramp up to its full schedule at PAE until March 12. UA starts PAE on March 31, so not too long after.

The ramp up is to make sure operations run smoothly and go down the learning curve.

Good to see FNT getting an extra rotation from UA to ORD

VC (via air) no longer services CLT.... so the information loaded is an error. This just recently happened. Ill miss them there.... I loved their service to UST (st. augustine) , but now that airport is empty.

Kind of surprised UA has enough slack in the E175 fleet to commit to an all e-jet operation at PAE. Could just be a placeholder I guess, or not.

On a side note, looks like mainline is returning to the morning SBA-DEN departure March 31st.

ericm2031 wrote:

Kind of surprised UA has enough slack in the E175 fleet to commit to an all e-jet operation at PAE. Could just be a placeholder I guess, or not.

On a side note, looks like mainline is returning to the morning SBA-DEN departure.

Not only that, but two E-Jets will overnight in PAE.

a350lover wrote:

Looking at their loads... they have been performing quite good in both routes. Iberia is the one suffering on the MAD-LAX leg, which they haven't yet fully established on a year round basis. They keep it through the winter season, although just 3x week.

MAD-LAX is now year-round in both Iberia and Norwegian.

It was Iberia (well LEVEL) that dropped BCN-LAX, while Norwegian continues operating BCN-LAX year-round.

ericm2031 wrote:

Kind of surprised UA has enough slack in the E175 fleet to commit to an all e-jet operation at PAE. Could just be a placeholder I guess, or not.

On a side note, looks like mainline is returning to the morning SBA-DEN departure March 31st.

They still have 20 175sc on order that have not yet been allocated.

flyguy84 wrote:

ericm2031 wrote:

Kind of surprised UA has enough slack in the E175 fleet to commit to an all e-jet operation at PAE. Could just be a placeholder I guess, or not.

On a side note, looks like mainline is returning to the morning SBA-DEN departure March 31st.

They still have 20 175sc on order that have not yet been allocated.

How is this the best use of the limited aircraft given they are still flying 50 seaters over 1,000 miles in many cases?

Rdh3e wrote:

flyguy84 wrote:

ericm2031 wrote:

Kind of surprised UA has enough slack in the E175 fleet to commit to an all e-jet operation at PAE. Could just be a placeholder I guess, or not.

On a side note, looks like mainline is returning to the morning SBA-DEN departure March 31st.

They still have 20 175sc on order that have not yet been allocated.

How is this the best use of the limited aircraft given they are still flying 50 seaters over 1,000 miles in many cases?

Well it could be as simple as they want to start off with the best option from a passenger POV. It could also be that the E175 is the aircraft that’ll be available in those hubs? Not sure. Either way, things can certainly change.

Rdh3e wrote:

flyguy84 wrote:

ericm2031 wrote:

Kind of surprised UA has enough slack in the E175 fleet to commit to an all e-jet operation at PAE. Could just be a placeholder I guess, or not.

On a side note, looks like mainline is returning to the morning SBA-DEN departure March 31st.

They still have 20 175sc on order that have not yet been allocated.

How is this the best use of the limited aircraft given they are still flying 50 seaters over 1,000 miles in many cases?

Many cases of the 145 used over 1,000 miles? Nope. Not anymore.

flight152 wrote:

Rdh3e wrote:

flyguy84 wrote:

They still have 20 175sc on order that have not yet been allocated.

How is this the best use of the limited aircraft given they are still flying 50 seaters over 1,000 miles in many cases?

Many cases of the 145 used over 1,000 miles? Nope. Not anymore.

There are many, or several, however you want to define it, but it's more than a few.

From the March 2019 schedule that is selling.

Over 1,000mi:
DEN-TYS
IAH-GRR
IAH-CAK
IAH-CLE
DEN-SDF
SFO-YYC

Over 950mi:
DEN-EUG
DEN-MFR
DEN-MRY
DEN-STS
IAH-CRW

Rdh3e wrote:

flight152 wrote:

Rdh3e wrote:

How is this the best use of the limited aircraft given they are still flying 50 seaters over 1,000 miles in many cases?

Many cases of the 145 used over 1,000 miles? Nope. Not anymore.

There are many, or several, however you want to define it, but it's more than a few.

From the March 2019 schedule that is selling.

Over 1,000mi:
DEN-TYS
IAH-GRR
IAH-CAK
IAH-CLE
DEN-SDF
SFO-YYC

Over 950mi:
DEN-EUG
DEN-MFR
DEN-MRY
DEN-STS
IAH-CRW

All the fights listed in the first half with the exception of DEN-TYS are under 1,000 and SFO-YYC is an E175.

The only E145 flight on the bottom is the CRW flight, the rest are a mix of CRJ and 737.

So basically you found one.

flight152 wrote:

All the fights listed in the first half with the exception of DEN-TYS are under 1,000 and SFO-YYC is an E175.

The only E145 flight on the bottom is the CRW flight, the rest are a mix of CRJ and 737.

So basically you found one.

You are incorrect.

DEN TYS 1,162 mi
IAH GRR 1,042 mi
IAH CAK 1,085 mi
IAH CLE 1,091 mi
DEN SDF 1,024 mi
SFO YYC 1,019 mi

All of that list has at least 1 daily 50 seater flying the market in MARCH 2019 in case you didn't read what I wrote. Don't believe me? You can find it all on United.com

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=DEN-TYS,+I ... F,+SFO-YYC

I'm also curious why you only care about the ERJ-145 flights and dismiss the CRJ-200 as if that shouldn't count when all I said was 50 seater...

I think the biggest takeaway of this is that UA flies IAH-CRW.

Rdh3e wrote:

There are many, or several, however you want to define it, but it's more than a few.

From the March 2019 schedule that is selling.

Over 1,000mi:
DEN-TYS
IAH-GRR
IAH-CAK
IAH-CLE
DEN-SDF
SFO-YYC

Over 950mi:
DEN-EUG
DEN-MFR
DEN-MRY
DEN-STS
IAH-CRW

You forgot seasonal DEN-VPS (1,210 mi) which runs this upcoming March on an E145.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=DEN-VPS

Runway28L wrote:

You forgot seasonal DEN-VPS (1,210 mi) which runs this upcoming March on an E145.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=DEN-VPS

I believe that is Saturday only from reading the other thread. I only included daily flights.

SFO-PAE: UA, AS

Can anyone complete the rest?:
DEN TYS UA,_____
IAH GRR UA,_____
IAH CAK UA,_____
IAH CLE UA,_____
DEN SDF UA,_____
SFO YYC UA,_____

flight152 wrote:

Rdh3e wrote:

flight152 wrote:

Many cases of the 145 used over 1,000 miles? Nope. Not anymore.

There are many, or several, however you want to define it, but it's more than a few.

From the March 2019 schedule that is selling.

Over 1,000mi:
DEN-TYS
IAH-GRR
IAH-CAK
IAH-CLE
DEN-SDF
SFO-YYC

Over 950mi:
DEN-EUG
DEN-MFR
DEN-MRY
DEN-STS
IAH-CRW

All the fights listed in the first half with the exception of DEN-TYS are under 1,000 and SFO-YYC is an E175.

The only E145 flight on the bottom is the CRW flight, the rest are a mix of CRJ and 737.

So basically you found one.

I was about to agree with you, but now that I checked, a lot of those routes are now being sold as E145's if you look at the March schedule. They could be placeholders, but they haven't showed that before. That's quite a few OO CRJ200's that are being switched over if true...

PlanesNTrains wrote:

I think the biggest takeaway of this is that UA flies IAH-CRW.

It's a mature route with an energy industry connection. Go check the fares between CRW and IAH. Sit down first.

kcrwflyer wrote:

PlanesNTrains wrote:

I think the biggest takeaway of this is that UA flies IAH-CRW.

It's a mature route with an energy industry connection. Go check the fares between CRW and IAH. Sit down first.

The smaller cities always take it in the shorts it seems.

Thanks for posting this information every week, Enilira. This may have been asked before but I am curious as to why some routes that are between a hub and destination are shown as from the destination to the hub rather than the other way around. An example from today is AA, ASE - DFW. Could it be that the flight (s) are only changing in one direction?

dfwjim1 wrote:

Thanks for posting this information every week, Enilira. This may have been asked before but I am curious as to why some routes that are between a hub and destination are shown as from the destination to the hub rather than the other way around. An example from today is AA, ASE - DFW. Could it be that the flight (s) are only changing in one direction?

It's in alphabetical order.. so.. whichever city comes up first.

PlanesNTrains wrote:

SFO-PAE: UA, AS

Can anyone complete the rest?:
DEN TYS UA,_____
IAH GRR UA,_____
IAH CAK UA,_____
IAH CLE UA,_____
DEN SDF UA,_____
SFO YYC UA,_____

The only one I know without looking it up is:

SFO YYC UA, AC

jporterfi wrote:

PlanesNTrains wrote:

SFO-PAE: UA, AS

Can anyone complete the rest?:
DEN TYS UA,_____
IAH GRR UA,_____
IAH CAK UA,_____
IAH CLE UA,_____
DEN SDF UA,_____
SFO YYC UA,_____

The only one I know without looking it up is:

SFO YYC UA, AC

I was just thinking that maybe some routes have a competitor requiring a more comfortable ride.

PlanesNTrains wrote:

jporterfi wrote:

PlanesNTrains wrote:

SFO-PAE: UA, AS

Can anyone complete the rest?:
DEN TYS UA,_____
IAH GRR UA,_____
IAH CAK UA,_____
IAH CLE UA,_____
DEN SDF UA,_____
SFO YYC UA,_____

The only one I know without looking it up is:

SFO YYC UA, AC

I was just thinking that maybe some routes have a competitor requiring a more comfortable ride.

DEN-TYS: the only other competitor is F9... so not much more of a comfortable ride even on a 319/320
DEN-SDF: both WN and F9... so definitely a better ride available on WN

joeblow10 wrote:

PlanesNTrains wrote:

jporterfi wrote:

The only one I know without looking it up is:

SFO YYC UA, AC

I was just thinking that maybe some routes have a competitor requiring a more comfortable ride.

DEN-TYS: the only other competitor is F9... so not much more of a comfortable ride even on a 319/320
DEN-SDF: both WN and F9... so definitely a better ride available on WN

I’ve only flown F9 for one round trip (last summer) but I was perfectly comfortable. Definitely better than a UAex CRJ.

kcrwflyer wrote:

PlanesNTrains wrote:

I think the biggest takeaway of this is that UA flies IAH-CRW.

It's a mature route with an energy industry connection. Go check the fares between CRW and IAH. Sit down first.

The super long CO E-Jet routes still remain...

allenf68 wrote:

VC (via air) no longer services CLT.... so the information loaded is an error. This just recently happened. Ill miss them there.... I loved their service to UST (st. augustine) , but now that airport is empty.

But for CLT its reduced down to zero. Cuts are significant across the board with VC and they haven't operated many flights recently. I think it's only a matter of time until they cease operating.

malev2012 wrote:

allenf68 wrote:

VC (via air) no longer services CLT.... so the information loaded is an error. This just recently happened. Ill miss them there.... I loved their service to UST (st. augustine) , but now that airport is empty.

But for CLT its reduced down to zero. Cuts are significant across the board with VC and they haven't operated many flights recently. I think it's only a matter of time until they cease operating.

My understanding is they were asked to leave CLT because they were not paying their bills... I can see them concentrating on SFB at this time even though there are some cuts there too.. I also question their continued existence

joeblow10 wrote:

So am I correct in seeing UA isn’t starting PAE service until April? Seems to be almost two months after Alaska... meaning two months of unused valuable slots

My bet is they will be counting all the AS flights during that timeframe and weighing a further delay to the start of their flights.

allenf68 wrote:

VC (via air) no longer services CLT.... so the information loaded is an error. This just recently happened. Ill miss them there.... I loved their service to UST (st. augustine) , but now that airport is empty.

How is it an error? It shows all CLT flights being terminated?

enilria wrote:

My bet is they will be counting all the AS flights during that timeframe and weighing a further delay to the start of their flights.

Why would they delay?

BA wrote:

enilria wrote:

My bet is they will be counting all the AS flights during that timeframe and weighing a further delay to the start of their flights.

Why would they delay?

Because PAE could be a disaster. We don't know yet if people are clamoring for this much service. WN didn't think so.

enilria wrote:

BA wrote:

enilria wrote:

My bet is they will be counting all the AS flights during that timeframe and weighing a further delay to the start of their flights.

Why would they delay?

Because PAE could be a disaster. We don't know yet if people are clamoring for this much service. WN didn't think so.

It won't be a disaster. People have been asking for air service from Paine Field for over a decade.

Sea-Tac is extremely congested with little room for extensive growth. The Seattle region is in need of a 2nd airport with air service, and Paine Field is a prime area serving the increasingly populated Snohomish County and northern King County.

WN is not a strong player in Seattle area, and has been slowly scaling back over the years, and they probably felt they wouldn't be able to adequately compete with Alaska and United, especially with only 5 flights a day.

BA wrote:

It won't be a disaster. People have been asking for air service from Paine Field for over a decade.

You don't know that. How many people is the question? It takes a lot of people to fill this many airplanes. You are talking about 1,000,000 seats per year in/out. That's a lot of people. PAE will have more seats than the capital of Florida has. People thought HAV would be huge, but it was a disaster. Not saying PAE will fail, but it's not a lock to be able to support the initial level of service.

enilria wrote:

BA wrote:

It won't be a disaster. People have been asking for air service from Paine Field for over a decade.

You don't know that. How many people is the question? It takes a lot of people to fill this many airplanes. You are talking about 1,000,000 seats per year in/out. That's a lot of people. PAE will have more seats than the capital of Florida has. People thought HAV would be huge, but it was a disaster. Not saying PAE will fail, but it's not a lock to be able to support the initial level of service.

And it goes directly against the trend of hub airlines doing poorly in alternate airports. Although I would guess AS at SEA doesn't rely on connections as much as some other airlines hubs.

enilria wrote:

BA wrote:

It won't be a disaster. People have been asking for air service from Paine Field for over a decade.

You don't know that. How many people is the question? It takes a lot of people to fill this many airplanes. You are talking about 1,000,000 seats per year in/out. That's a lot of people. PAE will have more seats than the capital of Florida has. People thought HAV would be huge, but it was a disaster. Not saying PAE will fail, but it's not a lock to be able to support the initial level of service.

No, it's not a huge amount of seats. The amount of seats that PAE will have is less than 2% of the total traffic that Sea-Tac sees. So we are talking about a potential at most 2% of the traffic from SEA shifting to PAE.

Seattle is not Tallahassee, so I'm not sure why you are drawing that comparison.

In 2015, Sea-Tac experienced a 11.4% growth followed by a 7.4% growth in 2016. 2017 slowed down to a growth of 2.5%, however 2018 is on pace to exceed 2017's growth. Up through June of this year, growth has been at 6.1% above the same period last year.

All this annual growth, is far greater than the amount of seats that PAE is bringing.

The very limited footprint of Sea-Tac will forever limit its ability to grow, the Seattle area will need a 2nd airport sooner or later.

BA wrote:

The very limited footprint of Sea-Tac will forever limit its ability to grow, the Seattle area will need a 2nd airport sooner or later.

SEA O&D has been growing in part due to ongoing fare wars that make it very cheap to fly. SEA has for a number of years had the lowest or near the lowest average fares in the nation. PAE, with smaller planes (higher CASM) and less demand (lower loads likely) will need to subsist on higher fares. It seems unlikely that people will opt to pay more for lower frequency service from PAE than the better service and choice at SEA.

AS, by spreading themselves across so many destinations has really made it so that PAE only has an actual good schedule to one or two destinations. Look at the schedule to SFO/SJC, it's terrible. They would have been better off picking 4 markets and putting all of their frequency into those. Instead they chose to dip their toe into a bunch of markets and seriously dilute the schedule quality.

A range of outcomes are possible (including success), but despite the optimism of some on here I think enilria's skepticism is very warranted.

enilria wrote:

BA wrote:

It won't be a disaster. People have been asking for air service from Paine Field for over a decade.

You don't know that. How many people is the question? It takes a lot of people to fill this many airplanes. You are talking about 1,000,000 seats per year in/out. That's a lot of people. PAE will have more seats than the capital of Florida has. People thought HAV would be huge, but it was a disaster. Not saying PAE will fail, but it's not a lock to be able to support the initial level of service.

I'm with enilria on this. It's totally up in the air. A lot of it will depend on pricing too. If the fares are much higher, people will keep on driving to SEA. I can see that happening.

Rdh3e wrote:

SEA O&D has been growing in part due to ongoing fare wars that make it very cheap to fly. SEA has for a number of years had the lowest or near the lowest average fares in the nation. PAE, with smaller planes (higher CASM) and less demand (lower loads likely) will need to subsist on higher fares. It seems unlikely that people will opt to pay more for lower frequency service from PAE than the better service and choice at SEA.

There is a fare war in SEA for sure, but where did you get the idea that it's resulted in SEA having the lowest or near lowest average fares in the nation? First time I heard this and as someone who flies regularly for SEA, I have not felt fares to be cheap at all, but I won't go off of my anecdotal experiences.

Rdh3e wrote:

AS, by spreading themselves across so many destinations has really made it so that PAE only has an actual good schedule to one or two destinations. Look at the schedule to SFO/SJC, it's terrible. They would have been better off picking 4 markets and putting all of their frequency into those. Instead they chose to dip their toe into a bunch of markets and seriously dilute the schedule quality.

Alaska chose those 8 markets based on having among the highest O&D from SEA, one key market they omitted is Spokane (GEG), which they probably felt was not worth wasting gate time slots on such a short flight.

I agree that they have spread themselves thin, and they may adjust accordingly in the future but cutting some destinations and boosting frequencies on others.

At the same time, people who can't stand driving to Sea-Tac, may be more than willing to go for less frequencies and pay higher fares, to avoid commuting down to Sea-Tac. AS is probably banking on a good portion of travelers doing this.

TWFlyGuy wrote:

I'm with enilria on this. It's totally up in the air. A lot of it will depend on pricing too. If the fares are much higher, people will keep on driving to SEA. I can see that happening.

The commute time savings of PAE versus SEA, for a large portion of SEA's travelers is enormous, and people will gladly pay a premium as long as it's not extremely excessive.

I'm sure both AS and UA have carefully studied how much of a premium they can charge out of PAE versus SEA and will price accordingly.

enilria wrote:

BA wrote:

enilria wrote:

My bet is they will be counting all the AS flights during that timeframe and weighing a further delay to the start of their flights.

Why would they delay?

Because PAE could be a disaster. We don't know yet if people are clamoring for this much service. WN didn't think so.

They also may be choosing a later start date for new service because the timing of the airport's opening happens to coincide with the slowest month. February had the lowest passenger numbers of the year for SEA.

BA wrote:

Alaska chose those 8 markets based on having among the highest O&D from SEA, one key market they omitted is Spokane (GEG), which they probably felt was not worth wasting gate time slots on such a short flight.

I agree that they have spread themselves thin, and they may adjust accordingly in the future but cutting some destinations and boosting frequencies on others.

At the same time, people who can't stand driving to Sea-Tac, may be more than willing to go for less frequencies and pay higher fares, to avoid commuting down to Sea-Tac. AS is probably banking on a good portion of travelers doing this.

PDX is closer to Seattle than is GEG. It's must not based on being too short.