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Gbass21
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Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Tue Nov 27, 2018 3:51 pm

Hi guys, I've been reading several posts about this topic, saying that the B789 is going to take almost all 744 routes, but, looking about Qantas orders and their future route plans, most of their future B789 will be used out of Brisbane, Perth or Melbourne. Examples of MEL-DFW, BNE-LAX, or the rumoured PER-CDG, among others. The order book of Qantas based on wikipedia, says 6 more 787 are on ordered. Any additional order that will come, probable will have delivery dates around 2021-2023, and project sunrise will be delivery around 2022-2024. So what will replace the remaining 747 in 2020?. Could we see A380 operations in SCL or JNB at least 3-4 times weekly? I am putting those destinations as an example, because, beside ETOPS restrictions, flights to SCL are almost full and QF 789s only have 236 passengers vs 364 on the 744ER, implying that they definitely need jumbo capacity to SCL.

PD: there are plans of A380 capabilities in SCL around 2020.
 
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American 767
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Re: Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Tue Nov 27, 2018 4:12 pm

I don't know if SCL can accommodate the A380, so probably it will see the 789, but JNB already accommodates the A380 of other airlines, BA, AF and LH, and maybe SQ, as far as I know, so JNB might as well accommodate the A380 of QF. JNB has more chances to see the QF A380 than SCL has.
LAX and LHR will likely see both the A380 and the 789 on a daily basis. Doesn't QF already fly LHR-PER on the 789?
SYD-DXB most likely A380.
If QF orders another aircraft it will be the 777-8/9X or the A359.
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superjeff
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Re: Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Tue Nov 27, 2018 4:12 pm

Qantas are also looking at the 777-X as a possible replacement; that would come closer to the 744 in capacity. I would look for an order from QF for that airplane within the next few months, with deliveries coming starting about 2021. (I'm not a Boeing or Qantas expert by any means, but I think it is a logical guess).
 
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qf789
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Re: Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Tue Nov 27, 2018 4:23 pm

Out of the current 744 routes SYD-HND will likely see it being replaced with the A333 with SYD-NRT being restarted, SYD-SFO would see either 789 with MEL-SFO being increased at the expense of MEL-LAX or a mix of 789 and A388 being used, SYD-JNB will see 789 with a supplementary service added from PER, SYD-SCL will see 789 as well and would see an increase from4 weekly to a daily service and SYD-HNL will return to A330. SYD-HKG will see 789 from late March.

Out of the routes mentioned above BNE-LAX has already being covered by the first 8 789’s, MEL-DFW is subject to the QF/AA JV and PER-CDG hasn’t been announced yet and any such service would originate on the east coast.

Currently there is usually 10 A388’s in service at the moment with one cycling theory maintenance and the other cycling through repainting and once that is completed they will go through a cabin refurbishment program which will be completed by the time the 744 is phased out so essentially by that time there will be another A388 to play with in the schedules.
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ClassicLover
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Re: Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Wed Nov 28, 2018 9:03 am

Personally, I'm curious as to what will happen with the Antarctica charters. From what I understand, the 747-400 is perfect for these flights, with the A380 being unsuitable as there is so much wing that the view down would be impeded.

Would a twin be able to do these flights, or will the end of the 747-400 at QF mean the end of these charters?
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
tullamarine
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Re: Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Wed Nov 28, 2018 9:26 am

American 767 wrote:
I don't know if SCL can accommodate the A380, so probably it will see the 789, but JNB already accommodates the A380 of other airlines, BA, AF and LH, and maybe SQ, as far as I know, so JNB might as well accommodate the A380 of QF. JNB has more chances to see the QF A380 than SCL has.
LAX and LHR will likely see both the A380 and the 789 on a daily basis. Doesn't QF already fly LHR-PER on the 789?
SYD-DXB most likely A380.
If QF orders another aircraft it will be the 777-8/9X or the A359.


Current Japan and HKG will principally go to A333s and maybe 789s to HKG.
JNB will go 789 as will SCL
SFO will go 789
QF don't fly to DXB any longer using own metal.

By end of 2019, QF will decide on new ULH plane with choice between A35J-ULR and 778. Whatever wins will decide whether 779 or A35J fills in between 789 and A380 from mid next decade.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
parapente
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Re: Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Wed Nov 28, 2018 9:35 am

'By end of 2019, QF will decide on new ULH plane with choice between A35J-ULR and 778. Whatever wins will decide whether 779 or A35J fills in between 789 and A380 from mid next decade.'

Is the right answer.
 
thgsr08
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Re: Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Wed Nov 28, 2018 10:47 am

QF itself stated that the 789 is the 747 replacement. Airports served by both 747 and 747ER will see 789s instead. The 789 will also open up new oportunities for QF if it intends to order a few more planes.
:checkeredflag:
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:14 am

thgsr08 wrote:
QF itself stated that the 789 is the 747 replacement. Airports served by both 747 and 747ER will see 789s instead. The 789 will also open up new oportunities for QF if it intends to order a few more planes.


I think ultimately there will be a larger aircraft than the 789 in the fleet, to slot in between it and the A380.

The A380 is likely to be retired in the next decade, leaving a need for a larger plane, but even before then it will be needed to operate into slot restricted or bi-laterally constrained airports, where increased frequency is not possible.

Depending on who wins the Project Sunrise deal, I would foresee the standard A350-1000 and the 777-9 to be ordered, which will operate alongside the longer range variants (A350-1000ULR/777-8).
 
smi0006
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Re: Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:32 am

qf789 wrote:
Out of the current 744 routes SYD-HND will likely see it being replaced with the A333 with SYD-NRT being restarted, SYD-SFO would see either 789 with MEL-SFO being increased at the expense of MEL-LAX or a mix of 789 and A388 being used, SYD-JNB will see 789 with a supplementary service added from PER, SYD-SCL will see 789 as well and would see an increase from4 weekly to a daily service and SYD-HNL will return to A330. SYD-HKG will see 789 from late March.

Out of the routes mentioned above BNE-LAX has already being covered by the first 8 789’s, MEL-DFW is subject to the QF/AA JV and PER-CDG hasn’t been announced yet and any such service would originate on the east coast.

Currently there is usually 10 A388’s in service at the moment with one cycling theory maintenance and the other cycling through repainting and once that is completed they will go through a cabin refurbishment program which will be completed by the time the 744 is phased out so essentially by that time there will be another A388 to play with in the schedules.


I agree, I think largely a part is the AA JV and thus how their American route network is structured. Fragmentation is the key for QF it seems moving forward. I see a small top up order potentially for a further 6-8 789 allowing for the below if AA JV approved and assuming some form of 777/350 order;

SYD-SFO daily
MEL-SFO daily, 789 to LAX replaced by AA
MEL-DFW 4 weekly
SYD-SCL daily, with addition of ULR SYD-GIG/GRU when 777/350 is delivered.
SYD-JNB daily
PER-JNB 3-4 weekly 330
BNE-PER-FRA
SYD-PER-CDG
SYD-YVR daily

Outsiders:
And maybe - BNE-ORD until 777 or 350 replace it SYD-ORD
SYD-CPT
MEL/BNE-YVR seasonal

BNE/SYD-PER-EU is interchangeable city pairs I picked randomly - it’s more about fleet rotation and creating a hub in PER. I think we will see the 797 replacing the 330s to Asia and domestic, and as the 777/350 are deliver 380s moving to SIN/HKG.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:51 am

smi0006 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Out of the current 744 routes SYD-HND will likely see it being replaced with the A333 with SYD-NRT being restarted, SYD-SFO would see either 789 with MEL-SFO being increased at the expense of MEL-LAX or a mix of 789 and A388 being used, SYD-JNB will see 789 with a supplementary service added from PER, SYD-SCL will see 789 as well and would see an increase from4 weekly to a daily service and SYD-HNL will return to A330. SYD-HKG will see 789 from late March.

Out of the routes mentioned above BNE-LAX has already being covered by the first 8 789’s, MEL-DFW is subject to the QF/AA JV and PER-CDG hasn’t been announced yet and any such service would originate on the east coast.

Currently there is usually 10 A388’s in service at the moment with one cycling theory maintenance and the other cycling through repainting and once that is completed they will go through a cabin refurbishment program which will be completed by the time the 744 is phased out so essentially by that time there will be another A388 to play with in the schedules.


I agree, I think largely a part is the AA JV and thus how their American route network is structured. Fragmentation is the key for QF it seems moving forward. I see a small top up order potentially for a further 6-8 789 allowing for the below if AA JV approved and assuming some form of 777/350 order;

SYD-SFO daily
MEL-SFO daily, 789 to LAX replaced by AA
MEL-DFW 4 weekly
SYD-SCL daily, with addition of ULR SYD-GIG/GRU when 777/350 is delivered.
SYD-JNB daily
PER-JNB 3-4 weekly 330
BNE-PER-FRA
SYD-PER-CDG
SYD-YVR daily

Outsiders:
And maybe - BNE-ORD until 777 or 350 replace it SYD-ORD
SYD-CPT
MEL/BNE-YVR seasonal

BNE/SYD-PER-EU is interchangeable city pairs I picked randomly - it’s more about fleet rotation and creating a hub in PER. I think we will see the 797 replacing the 330s to Asia and domestic, and as the 777/350 are deliver 380s moving to SIN/HKG.


MEL-SFO will not be handed over to AA. American Airlines is very conservative with long haul route development and is not going to add one from an airport that isn't a hub. I see QF going daily on MEL-SFO, swapping out the 747-400 for a mix of A388 and 789s on the SFO routes.
 
smi0006
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Re: Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:59 am

Cointrin330 wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Out of the current 744 routes SYD-HND will likely see it being replaced with the A333 with SYD-NRT being restarted, SYD-SFO would see either 789 with MEL-SFO being increased at the expense of MEL-LAX or a mix of 789 and A388 being used, SYD-JNB will see 789 with a supplementary service added from PER, SYD-SCL will see 789 as well and would see an increase from4 weekly to a daily service and SYD-HNL will return to A330. SYD-HKG will see 789 from late March.

Out of the routes mentioned above BNE-LAX has already being covered by the first 8 789’s, MEL-DFW is subject to the QF/AA JV and PER-CDG hasn’t been announced yet and any such service would originate on the east coast.

Currently there is usually 10 A388’s in service at the moment with one cycling theory maintenance and the other cycling through repainting and once that is completed they will go through a cabin refurbishment program which will be completed by the time the 744 is phased out so essentially by that time there will be another A388 to play with in the schedules.


I agree, I think largely a part is the AA JV and thus how their American route network is structured. Fragmentation is the key for QF it seems moving forward. I see a small top up order potentially for a further 6-8 789 allowing for the below if AA JV approved and assuming some form of 777/350 order;

SYD-SFO daily
MEL-SFO daily, 789 to LAX replaced by AA
MEL-DFW 4 weekly
SYD-SCL daily, with addition of ULR SYD-GIG/GRU when 777/350 is delivered.
SYD-JNB daily
PER-JNB 3-4 weekly 330
BNE-PER-FRA
SYD-PER-CDG
SYD-YVR daily

Outsiders:
And maybe - BNE-ORD until 777 or 350 replace it SYD-ORD
SYD-CPT
MEL/BNE-YVR seasonal

BNE/SYD-PER-EU is interchangeable city pairs I picked randomly - it’s more about fleet rotation and creating a hub in PER. I think we will see the 797 replacing the 330s to Asia and domestic, and as the 777/350 are deliver 380s moving to SIN/HKG.


MEL-SFO will not be handed over to AA. American Airlines is very conservative with long haul route development and is not going to add one from an airport that isn't a hub. I see QF going daily on MEL-SFO, swapping out the 747-400 for a mix of A388 and 789s on the SFO routes.


Sorry I’m not saying MEL-SFO goes to AA, I’m saying MEL-LAX which QF operate as a combo of 789 and 380 - QF give the 789 frequency to AA which then releases the QF 789 to make MEL-SFO daily.
 
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GSPFlyer
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Re: Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:24 pm

Would SYD-SCL and SYD-JNB be ETOPS-restricted for the 789?
 
FatCat
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Re: Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:26 pm

Isn't QF 744 fleet all "long range" special version? Or just a part?
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ClassicLover
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Re: Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:47 pm

FatCat wrote:
Isn't QF 744 fleet all "long range" special version? Or just a part?


Six of them are Boeing 747-438ERs and the remainders are standard 400s.
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
drdisque
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Re: Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Wed Nov 28, 2018 5:34 pm

The issue with AA taking over LAX-MEL would be that the LAX-JFK tag would either have to go away or be operated by an A380. I guess they could move the tag to SFO, but that's just a much weaker station.
 
qf002
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Re: Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Wed Nov 28, 2018 5:48 pm

drdisque wrote:
The issue with AA taking over LAX-MEL would be that the LAX-JFK tag would either have to go away or be operated by an A380. I guess they could move the tag to SFO, but that's just a much weaker station.


JFK is operated using the aircraft that comes in from BNE. QF’s second MEL-LAX flight arrives in the evening and only has a few hours on the ground before departing back to Australia.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Wed Nov 28, 2018 6:05 pm

ClassicLover wrote:
Personally, I'm curious as to what will happen with the Antarctica charters. From what I understand, the 747-400 is perfect for these flights, with the A380 being unsuitable as there is so much wing that the view down would be impeded.

Would a twin be able to do these flights, or will the end of the 747-400 at QF mean the end of these charters?


Shouldn't it be possible to pick up some mid life A340-600's cheap as they are being retired early? They do have a common type rating with A330's that QF's JQ subsidiary flies.
 
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readytotaxi
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Re: Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Wed Nov 28, 2018 6:29 pm

Will Qantas now only offer Int. First on the A380 routes?
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Wed Nov 28, 2018 7:28 pm

readytotaxi wrote:
Will Qantas now only offer Int. First on the A380 routes?


Yes, just as they have done for years. I want to say that it was about ~2011 that they stopped selling first class on the 747s, leaving the A380 as the only fleet with first class.

The Project Sunrise fleet is expected to have first but that is subject to change.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
QF742
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Re: Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Wed Nov 28, 2018 9:39 pm

I would not be surprised to see the 744s stay in the QF fleet longer than currently planned. Some of the 744ER will be very young when retired. This could help cover routes like seasonal YVR and can be easily deployed to HNL which continues to free up an A330 to fly other routes.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Wed Nov 28, 2018 9:41 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
ClassicLover wrote:
Personally, I'm curious as to what will happen with the Antarctica charters. From what I understand, the 747-400 is perfect for these flights, with the A380 being unsuitable as there is so much wing that the view down would be impeded.

Would a twin be able to do these flights, or will the end of the 747-400 at QF mean the end of these charters?


Shouldn't it be possible to pick up some mid life A340-600's cheap as they are being retired early? They do have a common type rating with A330's that QF's JQ subsidiary flies.


A340-600’s just for that? It’s possible but absolutely never going to happen. Unless QF wet lease for those flights.

JQ haven’t had A330’s for a few years, all 788 long haul, QF have 28 A330’s however.
 
Gemuser
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Re: Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Wed Nov 28, 2018 10:45 pm

GSPFlyer wrote:
Would SYD-SCL and SYD-JNB be ETOPS-restricted for the 789?

Australia has still not given approval for EDTO >180 for Australian aircraft but to be fair we do not know if any Australian airlines have applied for it. Will be a big deal to get that through CASA, glad I don't work in that area anymore.

Gemuser
 
NTLDaz
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Re: Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:48 pm

Gemuser wrote:
GSPFlyer wrote:
Would SYD-SCL and SYD-JNB be ETOPS-restricted for the 789?

Australia has still not given approval for EDTO >180 for Australian aircraft but to be fair we do not know if any Australian airlines have applied for it. Will be a big deal to get that through CASA, glad I don't work in that area anymore.

Gemuser


I'd be surprised if anyone has asked for it since they announced the possibility of relaxing the rules - purely because QF haven't needed to yet and VA dropped JNB before this time

We now have LA doing SCL-MEL on a 789 so I would find it hard for CASA to reject a QF/VA request- assuming all other requirements were met.
 
Gemuser
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Re: Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Thu Nov 29, 2018 3:57 am

NTLDaz wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
GSPFlyer wrote:
Would SYD-SCL and SYD-JNB be ETOPS-restricted for the 789?

Australia has still not given approval for EDTO >180 for Australian aircraft but to be fair we do not know if any Australian airlines have applied for it. Will be a big deal to get that through CASA, glad I don't work in that area anymore.

Gemuser


I'd be surprised if anyone has asked for it since they announced the possibility of relaxing the rules - purely because QF haven't needed to yet and VA dropped JNB before this time

We now have LA doing SCL-MEL on a 789 so I would find it hard for CASA to reject a QF/VA request- assuming all other requirements were met.


You have a good point but the technical side of CASA WAS VERY opposed to >180 [they were opposed 180 too] so it will be interesting to see. Unfortunately I have lost touch with the area as most, if not all, the people I worked with have retired/died, so can offer no opinion on how likely such approval will be forth coming.

Gemuser
 
smi0006
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Re: Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Thu Nov 29, 2018 5:08 am

QF742 wrote:
I would not be surprised to see the 744s stay in the QF fleet longer than currently planned. Some of the 744ER will be very young when retired. This could help cover routes like seasonal YVR and can be easily deployed to HNL which continues to free up an A330 to fly other routes.


I agree I think it’s a good idea, at least the six 744ER which are reasonably ‘young’ compared to the rest of the fleet. Especially if fuel doesn’t sky rocket.

However another poster here shared a link where they were all up for sale. Not to mention I have heard from people in QF that some of their senior fleet, and planning team are illogical adamanet the 744s need to go ASAP!
 
Gemuser
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Re: Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Thu Nov 29, 2018 5:46 am

smi0006 wrote:
QF742 wrote:
I would not be surprised to see the 744s stay in the QF fleet longer than currently planned. Some of the 744ER will be very young when retired. This could help cover routes like seasonal YVR and can be easily deployed to HNL which continues to free up an A330 to fly other routes.


I agree I think it’s a good idea, at least the six 744ER which are reasonably ‘young’ compared to the rest of the fleet. Especially if fuel doesn’t sky rocket.

However another poster here shared a link where they were all up for sale. Not to mention I have heard from people in QF that some of their senior fleet, and planning team are illogical adamanet the 744s need to go ASAP!

The fleet & planning team COULD BE "clearing the decks" on QF's balance sheet before the ordering of the Project Sunrise aircraft. QF still has a capital expenditure problem and getting rid of ALL the "fuel guzzling" B747 would probably play well with the aviation ignorant financial community.

Gemuser
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:55 am

flyingclrs727 wrote:
Shouldn't it be possible to pick up some mid life A340-600's cheap as they are being retired early? They do have a common type rating with A330's that QF's JQ subsidiary flies.


Definitely not. There are only 6-8 flights a year to Antarctica if that, so I guess the charter company that operates them will just have to get their aircraft from another carrier.
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
TN486
Posts: 556
Joined: Mon Jul 28, 2008 11:08 am

Re: Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:39 am

I nearly choked on my jam doughnut when I read that comment about A340-600's!!
remember the t shirt "I own an airline"on the front - "qantas" on the back
 
VapourTrails
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Re: Future of QF 744 Routes after 747 retirement?

Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:05 am

TN486 wrote:
I nearly choked on my jam doughnut when I read that comment about A340-600's!!


LOL - fortunately I was not eating or drinking when I read it. I am making the assumption that QF will use the A380 or QF no longer operate the charters. I guess we’ll have to wait and see. The flights are popular and the QF 744ER will not be around to operate them post 2020.

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