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Jutlander
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Why no CPH-JNB?

Thu Nov 29, 2018 5:28 pm

I am a bit surprised this route is unserved. CPH is the biggest airport in Scandinavia and JNB the largest in South Africa. In fact there are no direct flights between Scandinavia and South Africa at all. I guess there is quite a market, a good number of Scandinavians live in South Africa.

Smaller airports in Europe do have service to South Africa. If it works there, then why wouldn't it work from CPH?
 
Armaghman
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Re: Why no CPH-JNB?

Thu Nov 29, 2018 6:05 pm

Flying over so many connection options would be hard to compete.

Hard to launch something now as ME3 would have a large share of the leisure market.
 
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mercure1
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Re: Why no CPH-JNB?

Thu Nov 29, 2018 6:11 pm

Both SAA and SAS served the route back in the day. SAA dropped CPH in 1998.

Also for reference the biggest market in Scandinavia is not Copenhagem but Stockholm. CPH is largely dependent on transit, while ARN generate more local traffic.
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T54A
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Re: Why no CPH-JNB?

Sun Dec 02, 2018 5:00 am

SAA seriously considered this route a year or two ago. It was almost a launch. Politics and economics got in the way unfortunately.
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cv990Coronado
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Re: Why no CPH-JNB?

Sun Dec 02, 2018 10:59 am

mercure1 wrote:
Both SAA and SAS served the route back in the day. SAA dropped CPH in 1998.

Also for reference the biggest market in Scandinavia is not Copenhagem but Stockholm. CPH is largely dependent on transit, while ARN generate more local traffic.


SAA never flew to CPH.
I worked for SAS in JNB in the '70s the routing was JNBNBOATHVIECPH with a DC-8. This changed to a DC10 in 1977 and at the end of 1977, it changed to JNBNBOVIECPH.
The flight operated on a quota which restricted the number of PAX SAS could take. At the fares at the time, this was viable but would have got worse as times went on.
The main problem with CPH was that there were so many connection options. In addition, those going to OSL and STO had yet another change. My impression of Scandinavians was that they didn't have the same loyalty, as the Dutch for instance and therefore those travelling to OSL and STO often chose quicker, or cheaper options.
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a350lover
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Re: Why no CPH-JNB?

Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:17 pm

cv990Coronado wrote:
SAA never flew to CPH.
I worked for SAS in JNB in the '70s the routing was JNBNBOATHVIECPH with a DC-8. This changed to a DC10 in 1977 and at the end of 1977, it changed to JNBNBOVIECPH.


God! There are so valuable users on this forum! Aviation was definitely so exciting back in the day. Those routings will never be back.

DY announced plans to serve South Africa either from Scandinavia, Gatwick, or even Barcelona. Nothing truly has moved forward on that direction either. I am not sure if a likely SAS resumption of its South African services would be more viable to CPT. Since the market is mainly leisure, CPT sounds more appealing. Some interesting routings from Asia could use SAS network to connect to either JNB/CPT. Even more interesting for a Finnair operation, since the presence of AY in Asia is way larger. I am sure ME3 or even Ethiopian/South African serve already these markets, but it could always add some low-yield-profile connections.
 
ThalesCoelho
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Re: Why no CPH-JNB?

Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:55 pm

As well as there is no direct links beteween Scandinavia and South America. SAS flew to GIG and GRU for a few time back at the 80s and 90s and Varig served CPH via LHR from GRU with 777/MD-11 till its end.

Nowadays only via hubs, but no scandinavian or south american carrier connect those regions.
 
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PA110
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Re: Why no CPH-JNB?

Sun Dec 02, 2018 4:22 pm

The answer to all these endless "Why doesn't airline XX fly to YYY?" is always the same: ECONOMICS. Build a viable business case, and given availability of aircraft and slots, an airline will launch the route. But without a viable business case, they won't. Sometimes I think the folks who pose these questions believe the thought never occurred to the airlines involved. They have. There's simply no viable business case.
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LAXintl
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Re: Why no CPH-JNB?

Sun Dec 02, 2018 5:19 pm

cv990Coronado wrote:
SAA never flew to CPH.
.


:old:

According to them they did --- says route dropped in 1998 along with other loss making ones like Osaka and Amsterdam.

http://www.wikiwand.com/en/South_African_Airways

And per business paper on SAA (pdf)
http://gsblibrary.uct.ac.za/researchrep ... ockrat.pdf

Also photos of SAA at CPH



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2travel2know2
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Re: Why no CPH-JNB?

Sun Dec 02, 2018 7:11 pm

Both CPH and JNB have on their favour that they're Star Alliance hubs.
However, as of now, if someone wants to fly between Scandinavia and South Africa, there are plenty of routes, be via Star Alliance hubs or other hubs, to chose from.
And yet another issue, for a daily frequency, 2 frames will be required.
Thrice weekly would only work if a large number of seats are allocated to tour-operators or wholesalers and/or the local departure/arrival times make it attractive when compared to other routings.
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PSAatSAN4Ever
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Re: Why no CPH-JNB?

Sun Dec 02, 2018 7:46 pm

To echo what others have said, lack of premium demand. In crunching the numbers, the yields of the one-stop flights from Denmark to JNB have not reached the threshold where the analyst says, "we will make more money flying CPH-JNB than CPH-XXX, so now we switch".

I would also venture to say that part of Scandinavia's situation is the fact that this is a prosperous region but it has relatively small population (20-25 million) scattered over a very large area, with three distinct major population centers, none of which dominate the region. The far-north location in Europe means flights south and east will pass over a large number of European and middle-eastern population centers and airports, leading to a plethora of one-stop choices SAS would have to compete with.

Consider also that any non-stop from one Scandinavian airport would still require a change of planes from the other two airports, negating any benefits at all to the other two. For example: a non-stop CPH-JNB for Norwegians and Swedes would still require a change of planes at CPH.

SAS will remain focused on their primary mission: getting Scandinavians where they want to go, and letting everything else flow from there. SAS is never going to be able to compete with an airline such as Lufthansa, but being in Star Alliance means you don't have to. A customer buys a ticket from Scandinavia to JNB via Frankfurt, say on SK and LH or SA, and they have a seamless experience with connecting at FRA, with their baggage, and earning their miles, whilst the airlines' revenue-sharing plan ensures that yields stay high and everyone concentrates on their routes, rather than trying to undercut in a market with a lot of competition.
 
evanb
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Re: Why no CPH-JNB?

Sun Dec 02, 2018 10:29 pm

T54A wrote:
SAA seriously considered this route a year or two ago. It was almost a launch. Politics and economics got in the way unfortunately.


Categorically no. There have been no considerations of any new routes for a while and certainly not CPH. They have a codeshare on SK via LHR, LH via FRA and LH and SK via MUC.
 
T54A
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Re: Why no CPH-JNB?

Mon Dec 03, 2018 6:32 am

evanb wrote:
T54A wrote:
SAA seriously considered this route a year or two ago. It was almost a launch. Politics and economics got in the way unfortunately.


Categorically no. There have been no considerations of any new routes for a while and certainly not CPH. They have a codeshare on SK via LHR, LH via FRA and LH and SK via MUC.


You are probably right. I did however get info via a PM on this forum in Nov 2016 stating that SAA was going to operate CPH as SA266/267 operating out of CPH Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.
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upperdeckfan
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Re: Why no CPH-JNB?

Mon Dec 03, 2018 4:17 pm

2travel2know2 wrote:
Both CPH and JNB have on their favour that they're Star Alliance hubs.
However, as of now, if someone wants to fly between Scandinavia and South Africa, there are plenty of routes, be via Star Alliance hubs or other hubs, to chose from.
And yet another issue, for a daily frequency, 2 frames will be required.
Thrice weekly would only work if a large number of seats are allocated to tour-operators or wholesalers and/or the local departure/arrival times make it attractive when compared to other routings.


They are two Star hubs with limited connectivity at both ends being way up north and way down south respectively. Star customers in Scandinavia can easily connect through FRA or ZRH or fly SA
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HELyes
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Re: Why no CPH-JNB?

Tue Dec 04, 2018 12:13 am

ThalesCoelho wrote:
As well as there is no direct links beteween Scandinavia and South America. SAS flew to GIG and GRU for a few time back at the 80s and 90s and Varig served CPH via LHR from GRU with 777/MD-11 till its end.

Nowadays only via hubs, but no scandinavian or south american carrier connect those regions.


Finnair was present in Brazil around 2003-2010, they had winter service HEL to REC and FOR with B752 via Gran Canaries, wasn't scheduled though. They didn't return to South America after their 757s were gone, they now have scheduled flights to Cuba (HAV), Dominican Republic (POP) and Mexico (PVR) in winter.

 
peanuts
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Re: Why no CPH-JNB?

Tue Dec 04, 2018 12:46 am

HELyes wrote:
ThalesCoelho wrote:
As well as there is no direct links beteween Scandinavia and South America. SAS flew to GIG and GRU for a few time back at the 80s and 90s and Varig served CPH via LHR from GRU with 777/MD-11 till its end.

Nowadays only via hubs, but no scandinavian or south american carrier connect those regions.


Finnair was present in Brazil around 2003-2010, they had winter service HEL to REC and FOR with B752 via Gran Canaries, wasn't scheduled though. They didn't return to South America after their 757s were gone, they now have scheduled flights to Cuba (HAV), Dominican Republic (POP) and Mexico (PVR) in winter.



Finland isn’t Scandinavia
 
sixfootscream
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Re: Why no CPH-JNB?

Tue Dec 04, 2018 6:39 am

SA264/265 JNB-MUC-JNB codeshares with an SAS flight number.
SA260/261 JNB-FRA-JNB also codeshares with an SAS flight number.
LH752 FRA-JNB does not have a SAS codeshare on this route.
SA235/236 JNB-LHR-JNB codeshares with an SAS flight number.
LX288 ZRH-JNB does not codeshare with SAS on this route.

Which mean SAS customers can only connect via MUC/FRA/LHR to an SAA flight via codeshare.

I could see SAS returning to JNB, I see very little hope for SAA given their current struggles which will likely get worse.
 
a350lover
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Re: Why no CPH-JNB?

Tue Dec 04, 2018 8:45 am

I'd say Germany has 2/3 of the Scandi-South Africa market through FRA/MUC.
The other third has tones of good connections through CDG/AMS/LHR, etc.
Plenty of low-fare connections available via IST, or other European points.

Truly hard to reach the breakeven point on a direct route here.
 
evanb
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Re: Why no CPH-JNB?

Tue Dec 04, 2018 6:27 pm

T54A wrote:
You are probably right. I did however get info via a PM on this forum in Nov 2016 stating that SAA was going to operate CPH as SA266/267 operating out of CPH Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.


Not sure who gave you this info but the flight numbers tell me that it's not credible. SA flight numbers in the 260s are all to/from Germany. UK in the 230s and other Europe in the 270s.

For example, JNB-ZRH-CDG used to be SA 274 and JNB-TLV SA 270. If there were going to be JNB-CPH it would be in the 270s and not 266.
 
TR
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Re: Why no CPH-JNB?

Tue Dec 04, 2018 6:53 pm

evanb wrote:
T54A wrote:
You are probably right. I did however get info via a PM on this forum in Nov 2016 stating that SAA was going to operate CPH as SA266/267 operating out of CPH Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.


Not sure who gave you this info but the flight numbers tell me that it's not credible. SA flight numbers in the 260s are all to/from Germany. UK in the 230s and other Europe in the 270s.

For example, JNB-ZRH-CDG used to be SA 274 and JNB-TLV SA 270. If there were going to be JNB-CPH it would be in the 270s and not 266.


SAA used to extend their JNB-FRA route to Copenhagen. Hense the flight Numbers I assume. Have flown it myself a couple of times. Initially it was a twice a week service IIRC that went to three and the four weekly flight before being terminated.
 
evanb
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Re: Why no CPH-JNB?

Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:09 pm

TR wrote:
SAA used to extend their JNB-FRA route to Copenhagen. Hense the flight Numbers I assume. Have flown it myself a couple of times. Initially it was a twice a week service IIRC that went to three and the four weekly flight before being terminated.


Indeed they did, but the flight number was always based on the first stop.
 
sas767
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Re: Why no CPH-JNB?

Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:18 pm

evanb wrote:
T54A wrote:
You are probably right. I did however get info via a PM on this forum in Nov 2016 stating that SAA was going to operate CPH as SA266/267 operating out of CPH Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.


Not sure who gave you this info but the flight numbers tell me that it's not credible. SA flight numbers in the 260s are all to/from Germany. UK in the 230s and other Europe in the 270s.

For example, JNB-ZRH-CDG used to be SA 274 and JNB-TLV SA 270. If there were going to be JNB-CPH it would be in the 270s and not 266.


Very credible information - SAA had indeed mature plans to launch JNB-CPH a couple of years ago with the mentioned flight numbers. If SAA one day comes back into expansion mode CPH is still on top of the list.

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