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RyanairGuru
Posts: 8418
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2018

Thu Dec 27, 2018 7:26 pm

ArtV wrote:
SeaEagle8 wrote:
The A380 was redeployed to MEL-SIN to connect on to the A380 SYD-SIN-LHR which replaced both via DXB. MEL-SIN became double daily. So in effect both A380s on SYD-DXB and MEL-DXB were replaced with SYD-SIN and MEL-SIN. MEL-PER-LHR was a pure new addition.


There were two A380 Australia-LHR. There is now one A380 SYD-SIN-LHR and one 789 MEL-PER-LHR - resulting in a reduction in seats to LHR ex Australia on Qantas. Spin the DXB / SIN stop overs as you like, but there has been a reduction in seats to LHR with the 789 starting.


There was too much capacity on DXB-LHR before so that isn't necessarily a bad thing. The SYD/MEL-DXB legs got decent loads but a lot of passengers connected to other destinations with EK, and QF did not get as much feed from EK for DXB-LHR as they would have liked.

Additionally EK have added capacity since QF left DXB (fourth daily SYD, third daily BNE etc) and even with the downgauging of some flights from A380 to 77W there is more capacity to DXB now than 12 months ago.

Therefore while saying that QF have downgauged an A380 to 789 is accurate in the context of LHR specifically, it is overly simplistic as it ignores the capacity increases to both SIN and DXB that came with it.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
bunumuring
Posts: 2531
Joined: Wed Jan 15, 2014 2:56 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2018

Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:46 pm

Hey guys,
From a book I'm reading on Concorde.... An interesting but useless piece of trivia!
Qantas is the only airline who conditionally ordered Concordes but never formally cancelled them.
Cheers,
Bunumuring
I just wanna live while I'm alive!
 
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qf2220
Posts: 1974
Joined: Fri Aug 16, 2013 9:16 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2018

Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:29 pm

Conditional on what?
 
aerokiwi
Posts: 2788
Joined: Sun Jul 30, 2000 1:17 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2018

Sat Dec 29, 2018 12:35 am

qf789 wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
Virgin Australia will also reveal its east-west 'Perth Product', a lie-flat B737 business class seat.


This is unlikely to happen next year and I think you will find that the 737-10's are more likely to have such a product.

The initial 737MAX8's will likely replace 737-800's of which will replace A320's for TT of which some of those may end up at VARA. Putting such a product in the 737MAX8's will compromise capacity, it will also create utilisation issues, quite often on flights to PER particularly late in the day it is quite a regular occurance that there are rego swaps. The premise of the Perth Product was to offer a product in the fleet that would replace A330 services. At the moment I can not see anymore A330's heading to International. Numbers over recent months on PER trans con flights have increased, there is also the question of the HU investment, if that goes the HKG flights will go with it. If HU stays the HKG flights will stay, there has been plenty of talk previously of VA entering the China market however since then the one airline, one route policy has been relaxed and therefore there is not the need for VA to enter that market which is already heavily saturated by Chinese airlines


Interesting take on the HU impact on VA's Hong Kong flights. Have you heard this somewhere? HU could sell out and VA still have a codeshare partnership - assuming Hong Kong Airlines is still around, which is probably the greatest risk factor.

The shareholding is a red herring, really. Airlines go on being airlines and, if what I understand is correct, Hong Kong Airlines can't increase services to Australia under the bilateral. That's not going away.
 
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SCFlyer
Posts: 609
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2018

Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:26 am

Bilaterals between HK and AU are full on the HK end, IIRC. HX may still want to keep their (codeshare) presence to AU via VA, even if HNA ends up selling HX.

The only scenario I can see VA pulling out of HKG is if one of two past mentioned dark-horses (this one mentioned in the Blue Swan Daily is NH) does buy either the EY or HNA stakes in VA.

Considering the Blue Swan Daily article (September 2018) had strongly suggested that NH would do some "international adjustments" to VA's schedule should they buy a stake. While at the same time mostly focusing on domestic expansion.

Reading inbetween the lines, the "international adjustments" would be swapping out SYD/MEL-HKG for MEL/BNE-NRT (with NH doing SYD-HND and PER-NRT).
 
Gemuser
Posts: 5084
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 12:07 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2018

Sat Dec 29, 2018 4:18 am

SCFlyer Reply 305:
There is one problem with your "international adjustments" theory. The VA shareholders DO NOT hold shares in VA's International operations, they are separate airlines/companies with VA International having majority [at least] Australian shareholders. Otherwise they could not be designated an Australian airline under the various ASA agreements. Under Australian law foreign shareholders cannot have CONTROL over an Australian International airline.
Gemuser
 
A350OZ
Posts: 170
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2017 9:20 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2018

Sat Dec 29, 2018 5:47 am

Gemuser wrote:
SCFlyer Reply 305:
There is one problem with your "international adjustments" theory. The VA shareholders DO NOT hold shares in VA's International operations, they are separate airlines/companies with VA International having majority [at least] Australian shareholders. Otherwise they could not be designated an Australian airline under the various ASA agreements. Under Australian law foreign shareholders cannot have CONTROL over an Australian International airline.
Gemuser


While this is of course true, there are other ways how a major shareholder can influence the company's decision making. Same thing happened twice before, VA flights to HKG (thanks to HNA investment) and VAs flights to AUH from SYD and even the wetlease to operate AUH-KUL on behalf of EY are examples of that. I think we can all agree they didn't just happen coincidentally.
 
bunumuring
Posts: 2531
Joined: Wed Jan 15, 2014 2:56 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2018

Sat Dec 29, 2018 11:49 pm

Hey guys.
Any news on Samoa Airways MAX 9 operating into Australia 2019 Q2?
I’m still a bit dubious even though the plane is apparently being prepared for delivery as we speak.
Cheers,
Bunumuring
I just wanna live while I'm alive!
 
bunumuring
Posts: 2531
Joined: Wed Jan 15, 2014 2:56 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2018

Sat Dec 29, 2018 11:50 pm

Hey guys,
Any info on N777UK, the private 777 spotted in Sydney and Canberra the past couple of days?
Cheers,
Bunumuring
I just wanna live while I'm alive!
 
jman
Posts: 81
Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:41 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2018

Sun Dec 30, 2018 12:13 am

bunumuring wrote:
Hey guys,
Any info on N777UK, the private 777 spotted in Sydney and Canberra the past couple of days?
Cheers,
Bunumuring


Its leaving for HNL at 11pm tonight
 
moa999
Posts: 963
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2018

Sun Dec 30, 2018 1:10 am

Gemuser wrote:
SCFlyer Reply 305:
There is one problem with your "international adjustments" theory. The VA shareholders DO NOT hold shares in VA's International operations, they are separate airlines/companies with VA International having majority [at least] Australian shareholders.


In name only.
When VA Int has separate management and publishes separate financials I'll believe that statement.

The network changes as various shareholders have moved in and out of VAH has been fairly informative.
 
aerokiwi
Posts: 2788
Joined: Sun Jul 30, 2000 1:17 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2018

Sun Dec 30, 2018 1:58 am

moa999 wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
SCFlyer Reply 305:
There is one problem with your "international adjustments" theory. The VA shareholders DO NOT hold shares in VA's International operations, they are separate airlines/companies with VA International having majority [at least] Australian shareholders.


In name only.
When VA Int has separate management and publishes separate financials I'll believe that statement.

The network changes as various shareholders have moved in and out of VAH has been fairly informative.


I think people get carried away by this. VA went to AUH in a similar way to QF going to Dubai - to tap into the broader network of one of the ME3. It also coincided with spare capacity in the 77W fleet. When it was clear it wasn't working, the route ended. It was only, what, 3 times a week?

The Perth-AUH announcement was bungled but was scratched - not something you'd expect if EY really was pulling the strings. It was just a dumb route and use of 330s.

If shareholding did dictate destinations, you'd have thought VA would be into Singapore long before Hong Kong.
 
moa999
Posts: 963
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2018

Sun Dec 30, 2018 2:42 am

SQ already has two subs flying the Aus-SIN routes, don't think they'd want another, and no issue with allocations.
 
kriskim
Posts: 415
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 12:44 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2018

Sun Dec 30, 2018 3:07 am

aerokiwi wrote:
moa999 wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
SCFlyer Reply 305:
There is one problem with your "international adjustments" theory. The VA shareholders DO NOT hold shares in VA's International operations, they are separate airlines/companies with VA International having majority [at least] Australian shareholders.


In name only.
When VA Int has separate management and publishes separate financials I'll believe that statement.

The network changes as various shareholders have moved in and out of VAH has been fairly informative.


I think people get carried away by this. VA went to AUH in a similar way to QF going to Dubai - to tap into the broader network of one of the ME3. It also coincided with spare capacity in the 77W fleet. When it was clear it wasn't working, the route ended. It was only, what, 3 times a week?

The Perth-AUH announcement was bungled but was scratched - not something you'd expect if EY really was pulling the strings. It was just a dumb route and use of 330s.

If shareholding did dictate destinations, you'd have thought VA would be into Singapore long before Hong Kong.


Why would SQ want that? Both SQ and TR can fly into Australia as many times as they like, SQ has nothing to gain with VA also competing in SIN.

SQ has different motives, what it wants from VA is it’s FF base and it’s domestic network in Australia in order for those pax to feed into SQ - making their own planes fuller. It’s a win win situation for both parties as VA’s long haul international network is quite sparse.

All shareholders have different strategic motives for acquiring a stake in VA. SQ is about the FF base and domestic network whilst Hainan is more about accessing Hong Kong and China due to bilateral contraints.
A world built upon connectivity.
 
aerokiwi
Posts: 2788
Joined: Sun Jul 30, 2000 1:17 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2018

Sun Dec 30, 2018 4:31 am

kriskim wrote:
aerokiwi wrote:
moa999 wrote:

In name only.
When VA Int has separate management and publishes separate financials I'll believe that statement.

The network changes as various shareholders have moved in and out of VAH has been fairly informative.


I think people get carried away by this. VA went to AUH in a similar way to QF going to Dubai - to tap into the broader network of one of the ME3. It also coincided with spare capacity in the 77W fleet. When it was clear it wasn't working, the route ended. It was only, what, 3 times a week?

The Perth-AUH announcement was bungled but was scratched - not something you'd expect if EY really was pulling the strings. It was just a dumb route and use of 330s.

If shareholding did dictate destinations, you'd have thought VA would be into Singapore long before Hong Kong.


Why would SQ want that? Both SQ and TR can fly into Australia as many times as they like, SQ has nothing to gain with VA also competing in SIN.

SQ has different motives, what it wants from VA is it’s FF base and it’s domestic network in Australia in order for those pax to feed into SQ - making their own planes fuller. It’s a win win situation for both parties as VA’s long haul international network is quite sparse.

All shareholders have different strategic motives for acquiring a stake in VA. SQ is about the FF base and domestic network whilst Hainan is more about accessing Hong Kong and China due to bilateral contraints.


I don't necessarily disagree. It's all kind of an implied conspiracy and the original proposition I'm responding to was that VA flies to the international destinations according to its shareholder airlines' sinister machinations.

Reasons for a SIN flight? I dunno, maybe aircraft availability/fleet utilisation. Brand building. Service consistency. Blah blah etc. Again you assume this is SQ's decision to make. They're all airlines before they're shareholders and they'll do what they think is strategically best. If it doesn't work, they'll pull out... see: AUH. And no one airline has majority control, so it's even less convincing. I'm not even sure if Boards control individual route decisions.

Clearly VA saw value in Hong Kong and a large part of that is probably its strategic link with HX, as an airline rather than a shareholder, giving great lounge access and onward connections to China and a local pax base. Possibly even a stepping stone to mainland China, though I doubt that's coming about. Mutually beneficial in the meantime.

They clearly don't see that in Singapore. But SQ is a shareholder! Or any of the other HNA hubs. But HNA is a shareholder! AUH was tried, akin to Qantas at DXB, but they withdrew. But EY is a shareholder! The shareholder conspiracy fails.
 
aerokiwi
Posts: 2788
Joined: Sun Jul 30, 2000 1:17 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2018

Sun Dec 30, 2018 5:10 am

Actually, genuine question... how does a minority shareholding give you more access to a frequent flyer base over a simple airline-to-airline alliance/codeshare/JV? Are SQ, EY or HNA somehow tapping into data and information that a non-shareholding partner airline can't access?

Minority shareholdings typically exist where the shareholder sees potential for profit through dividends or capital gains when they sell. Not unreasonable given the nature of the Australian market, QF's profits and VA's historic money making. Though VA have made it as difficult as possible to realise that profit, with things only recently turning a corner, tentatively.
 
A350OZ
Posts: 170
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2017 9:20 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2018

Sun Dec 30, 2018 5:26 am

Re VA and its shareholders, I do not think anyone is suggesting "sinister machinations" or "conspiracies", but simple decision making based on certain opportunities that come with those investments and whatever is agreed commercially along with it.

The VA flight to AUH was IIRC due to a fleet shortage at EY at the time, so they basically added capacity on EY's behalf. (Once VA ceased the route EY added 3 more weekly flights immediately given they now had planes available from other network adjustments.) It was a very different arrangement from QFs DXB venture.

And the difference between HKG and SIN as explaimed a few posts earlier is that HX cannot fly to AU due to the bilateral being exhausted (so VA as a partner providing a way for them around this), while SQ is not limited and has no upside in VA flying their own metal. (Nor would it for VA in my view, given their small long-haul fleet and the quality of SQ as a partner; as a VA Platinum I would still choose SQ any day over VA if they flew to SIN.)

Would AUH or HKG have happened without HNA and EYs investment (or at least some sort of commercial partnership)? I honestly do not know but I doubt it.
 
juliusg
Posts: 11
Joined: Mon Jul 28, 2008 6:51 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2018

Sun Dec 30, 2018 6:50 am

Chose between SQ and VA if - hypothetically - both ran to Singapore? I'd choose VA with one consistent seat over the crazy array of SQ J seats. The new A380 is to be avoided in J, the footwell is for people shaped like a pretzel! VA service is usually great, food is also great!
 
VapourTrails
Posts: 3939
Joined: Fri Aug 17, 2001 9:30 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2018

Mon Dec 31, 2018 7:27 am

The Qantas Charter Antarctic Scenic New Years Flight is on its way...

Image
Source: http://www.flightradar24.com
 
zkncj
Posts: 3888
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2018

Mon Dec 31, 2018 8:47 am

bunumuring wrote:
Hey guys,
Any info on N777UK, the private 777 spotted in Sydney and Canberra the past couple of days?
Cheers,
Bunumuring


It was in AKL for Christmas/Boxing Day.
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2018

Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:11 am

Please continue discussion in Australian Aviation Thread January 2019

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1411749
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