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caoimhin
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Tue Dec 04, 2018 11:55 pm

maint123 wrote:
As i see it a NEW boeing had issues(poor quality) and could not be saved by the pilots due to questionable hidden software interfering in manual mode(incompetence of designers). Now they are changing the software.
Mention of A330 is just whataboutism.


What “poor quality” can you point to as a factor in this case? Has there been new information about “quality”, whatever that means, in this case? Please share it.

What’s more, your conclusion that the aircraft “could not be saved by the pilots” is not established fact, and is in fact negated by the outcome of the previous flight, as well as the fact that the safety bulletin referred to an existing procedure. Are you aware of some objective reason why this flight “could not be saved” in advance of the release of the final report, or are you just offering your personal opinion, coloured by an intensely obvious partisanship?
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Wed Dec 05, 2018 1:01 am

fadecfault wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
fadecfault wrote:

That is 100% False.
The Only difference between the NG and the MAX is a latching coil to bypass the control column cutout. Otherwise an NG will trim itself down with a single bad AOA just like a MAX.


Your only difference is quite a big difference.

And an attentive pilot still has 2 ways to override the latch. One way is literally at their finger tips.

IF they have been trained to do it, and informed they could; which the AA & WN Pilot Unions say they have not.
 
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7BOEING7
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Wed Dec 05, 2018 1:11 am

WayexTDI wrote:
fadecfault wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

Your only difference is quite a big difference.

And an attentive pilot still has 2 ways to override the latch. One way is literally at their finger tips.

IF they have been trained to do it, and informed they could; which the AA & WN Pilot Unions say they have not.


Key word in that sentence "union".
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Wed Dec 05, 2018 1:21 am

7BOEING7 wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
fadecfault wrote:
And an attentive pilot still has 2 ways to override the latch. One way is literally at their finger tips.

IF they have been trained to do it, and informed they could; which the AA & WN Pilot Unions say they have not.


Key word in that sentence "union".

Trust me, I'm not a friend of the unions; but, because they publicly and loudly stated so, had it been false, Boeing, the FAA, the airlines themselves would have been the first to prove them wrong.
 
fadecfault
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:22 am

WayexTDI wrote:
fadecfault wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

Your only difference is quite a big difference.

And an attentive pilot still has 2 ways to override the latch. One way is literally at their finger tips.

IF they have been trained to do it, and informed they could; which the AA & WN Pilot Unions say they have not.


Per the NTSC report:

"3.1 Lion Air Lion AirLion Air
On 29 October 2018, the Safety and Security Directorate issued safety reminder to all Boeing 737 pilots to review several procedures including memory items of airspeed unreliable and runaway stabilizer.
On 30 October 2018, issued information to all pilots which contained reminder to:
 Have a thoroughly understanding on Deferred Maintenance Item (DMI) for the aircraft to be use.
 Check any defect and the trouble shooting on Aircraft Maintenance Flight Log (AFML) from the previous flights.
 Be ready for any abnormal or emergency conditions by having Memory Items and maneuvers reviewed and have a good Cockpit Resource Management (CRM) to all counterparts."

Clearly Lion Air thought their pilots were trained to follow the right procedures.
http://knkt.dephub.go.id/knkt/ntsc_avia ... Report.pdf
The views and opinions written here are my own and do not reflect those of my employer.
 
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BN727227Ultra
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:53 am

WIederling wrote:
BN727227Ultra wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
I doubt Airbus wants to deal with Lion Air either as they would crash the A320neo in short order as well.

I know it's Wikipedia and not AW&ST, but it's claimed that Lion has 234 Airbii narrowbodies on order. If Wiki's wrong, I want my money back :-)

A mix of 41(delivered) A320 CEO and 113 A320NEO and 65 A321 NEO
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_A ... deliveries


Thanks! The Lion Air wiki page needs editing.
 
juliuswong
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:08 am

WIederling wrote:
BN727227Ultra wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
I doubt Airbus wants to deal with Lion Air either as they would crash the A320neo in short order as well.

I know it's Wikipedia and not AW&ST, but it's claimed that Lion has 234 Airbii narrowbodies on order. If Wiki's wrong, I want my money back :-)

A mix of 41(delivered) A320 CEO and 113 A320NEO and 65 A321 NEO
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_A ... deliveries

@BN727227Ultra Lol...To be more accurate you may refer to Airbus official press release: https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... craft.html

"Indonesian low cost carrier becomes new Airbus customer with major order

Indonesia’s Lion Air has placed a firm order with Airbus for 234 A320 Family aircraft, comprising 109 A320neo, 65 A321neo and 60 A320ceo. The deal sees the carrier become a new customer for Airbus.
The order was finalised today at a special ceremony at the Elysée Palace in Paris in the presence of President François Hollande of France, who witnessed the signing of documents by Rusdi Kirana, Co-Founder and CEO of Lion Air Group and Fabrice Brégier, President & CEO, Airbus."

@TTailedTiger Well, Airbus is more than happy to deal with them. They just sold another 8 A330neo to them, mix of lease and outright purchase.
- Life is a journey, travel it well -
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:22 am

fadecfault wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
fadecfault wrote:
And an attentive pilot still has 2 ways to override the latch. One way is literally at their finger tips.

IF they have been trained to do it, and informed they could; which the AA & WN Pilot Unions say they have not.


Per the NTSC report:

"3.1 Lion Air Lion AirLion Air
On 29 October 2018, the Safety and Security Directorate issued safety reminder to all Boeing 737 pilots to review several procedures including memory items of airspeed unreliable and runaway stabilizer.
On 30 October 2018, issued information to all pilots which contained reminder to:
 Have a thoroughly understanding on Deferred Maintenance Item (DMI) for the aircraft to be use.
 Check any defect and the trouble shooting on Aircraft Maintenance Flight Log (AFML) from the previous flights.
 Be ready for any abnormal or emergency conditions by having Memory Items and maneuvers reviewed and have a good Cockpit Resource Management (CRM) to all counterparts."

Clearly Lion Air thought their pilots were trained to follow the right procedures.
http://knkt.dephub.go.id/knkt/ntsc_avia ... Report.pdf

Per a letter from ALPA to the FAA:
"these reports indicate that information regarding the normal and non-normal operation of this system was not provided to the frontline airline employees—the flight crews and maintenance technicians." (bolded mine)

Clearly, some pilots are saying they were not made aware of the system, thus could not have been trained on the proper procedure. Sounds like the knowledge passing is dependent on the instructor and/or the training school; and not from a Boeing-written FAA-approved training program.
http://www.alpa.org/-/media/ALPA/Files/ ... safety.pdf
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:37 am

juliuswong wrote:
WIederling wrote:
BN727227Ultra wrote:
I know it's Wikipedia and not AW&ST, but it's claimed that Lion has 234 Airbii narrowbodies on order. If Wiki's wrong, I want my money back :-)

A mix of 41(delivered) A320 CEO and 113 A320NEO and 65 A321 NEO
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_A ... deliveries

@BN727227Ultra Lol...To be more accurate you may refer to Airbus official press release: https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... craft.html

"Indonesian low cost carrier becomes new Airbus customer with major order

Indonesia’s Lion Air has placed a firm order with Airbus for 234 A320 Family aircraft, comprising 109 A320neo, 65 A321neo and 60 A320ceo. The deal sees the carrier become a new customer for Airbus.
The order was finalised today at a special ceremony at the Elysée Palace in Paris in the presence of President François Hollande of France, who witnessed the signing of documents by Rusdi Kirana, Co-Founder and CEO of Lion Air Group and Fabrice Brégier, President & CEO, Airbus."

@TTailedTiger Well, Airbus is more than happy to deal with them. They just sold another 8 A330neo to them, mix of lease and outright purchase.


So with nearly 500 aircraft on order from Boeing and Airbus where in the world are they planning on utilizing all of that capacity? Many locals didn't want to set foot on Lion Air even before this crash.
 
juliuswong
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:55 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
juliuswong wrote:
WIederling wrote:
A mix of 41(delivered) A320 CEO and 113 A320NEO and 65 A321 NEO
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_A ... deliveries

@BN727227Ultra Lol...To be more accurate you may refer to Airbus official press release: https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... craft.html

"Indonesian low cost carrier becomes new Airbus customer with major order

Indonesia’s Lion Air has placed a firm order with Airbus for 234 A320 Family aircraft, comprising 109 A320neo, 65 A321neo and 60 A320ceo. The deal sees the carrier become a new customer for Airbus.
The order was finalised today at a special ceremony at the Elysée Palace in Paris in the presence of President François Hollande of France, who witnessed the signing of documents by Rusdi Kirana, Co-Founder and CEO of Lion Air Group and Fabrice Brégier, President & CEO, Airbus."

@TTailedTiger Well, Airbus is more than happy to deal with them. They just sold another 8 A330neo to them, mix of lease and outright purchase.


So with nearly 500 aircraft on order from Boeing and Airbus where in the world are they planning on utilizing all of that capacity? Many locals didn't want to set foot on Lion Air even before this crash.

Surprisingly, there are still a lot of local who can't resist their cheap, I mean dirt cheap fare. Only those who are better well-educated (which is minority in big Indonesian population) will avoid it with a yardstick. Where nobody dares to go, they will go, especially remote areas. They will mount multiple daily flights to edge out competitors. Sort of like guerrilla approach to fight with competitors.

Indonesia domestic aviation is growing at double digit annually, they would need all the aircraft they can get to capture all untapped market, they literally conquered the market with more than 50% now fast approaching 60% market share as Sriwijaya Airlines and NAM Air (their bigger competitors) are out. The only viable competitor is GA which is in expansion freeze mode now. In addition, some of these aircraft will eventually replace those in subsidiaries in Malaysia and Thailand (77 now) in future.

They can also offload older aircraft to avoid heavy maintenance cost or set up a leasing arm to lease out to other airlines, and sold off the leasing unit for handsome sum like what AirAsia did.
- Life is a journey, travel it well -
 
EChid
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:27 am

juliuswong wrote:
Surprisingly, there are still a lot of local who can't resist their cheap, I mean dirt cheap fare. Only those who are better well-educated (which is minority in big Indonesian population) will avoid it with a yardstick.

They aren't better or more well-educated necessarily, they have more money. A quick review of pricing shows Lion Air is often 30% to 50% cheaper compared to GA.
2018: DRW-PER-HKG-ICN-MEL-AVV-BNE-OOL-SYD-YYZ-YYZ-YUL-YVR-PDX-SEA-SFO-PEK-KIX-CDG-IST-NRT-HND-BKK-FAT; AC J-TK J-OZ F-DL F-TG J/F-NH J/F-CX J-VA J
 
AvObserver
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:28 am

caoimhin wrote:
maint123 wrote:
As i see it a NEW boeing had issues(poor quality) and could not be saved by the pilots due to questionable hidden software interfering in manual mode(incompetence of designers). Now they are changing the software.
Mention of A330 is just whataboutism.


What “poor quality” can you point to as a factor in this case? Has there been new information about “quality”, whatever that means, in this case? Please share it.

What’s more, your conclusion that the aircraft “could not be saved by the pilots” is not established fact, and is in fact negated by the outcome of the previous flight, as well as the fact that the safety bulletin referred to an existing procedure. Are you aware of some objective reason why this flight “could not be saved” in advance of the release of the final report, or are you just offering your personal opinion, coloured by an intensely obvious partisanship?

He said, "As I see it" so yes, it's only his personal opinion. These Lion Air JT610 threads are rank with conjecture and venom toward either Boeing or Lion Air. It's disgusting how many forum members try to elevate their own opinions to the level of factuality.
 
maint123
Posts: 144
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:04 am

caoimhin wrote:
maint123 wrote:
As i see it a NEW boeing had issues(poor quality) and could not be saved by the pilots due to questionable hidden software interfering in manual mode(incompetence of designers). Now they are changing the software.
Mention of A330 is just whataboutism.


What “poor quality” can you point to as a factor in this case? Has there been new information about “quality”, whatever that means, in this case? Please share it.

What’s more, your conclusion that the aircraft “could not be saved by the pilots” is not established fact, and is in fact negated by the outcome of the previous flight, as well as the fact that the safety bulletin referred to an existing procedure. Are you aware of some objective reason why this flight “could not be saved” in advance of the release of the final report, or are you just offering your personal opinion, coloured by an intensely obvious partisanship?

Poor quality - AOA sensors/system of a brand new plane failing. Points towards issues with quality assurance.
Previous flight relied on luck rather than training , not a good state to be in when responsible for 200 odd souls.Boeing issuing emergency directives regarding MCAS and its presence in manual mode , and now reports of -
1. A american airline changing its AOA feedback on MAX planes. Why do it if everythings fine ?
2. Boeing working on software upgrades for MAX.
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:15 am

maint123 wrote:
caoimhin wrote:
maint123 wrote:
As i see it a NEW boeing had issues(poor quality) and could not be saved by the pilots due to questionable hidden software interfering in manual mode(incompetence of designers). Now they are changing the software.
Mention of A330 is just whataboutism.


What “poor quality” can you point to as a factor in this case? Has there been new information about “quality”, whatever that means, in this case? Please share it.

What’s more, your conclusion that the aircraft “could not be saved by the pilots” is not established fact, and is in fact negated by the outcome of the previous flight, as well as the fact that the safety bulletin referred to an existing procedure. Are you aware of some objective reason why this flight “could not be saved” in advance of the release of the final report, or are you just offering your personal opinion, coloured by an intensely obvious partisanship?

Poor quality - AOA sensors/system of a brand new plane failing. Points towards issues with quality assurance.
Previous flight relied on luck rather than training , not a good state to be in when responsible for 200 odd souls.Boeing issuing emergency directives regarding MCAS and its presence in manual mode , and now reports of -
1. A american airline changing its AOA feedback on MAX planes. Why do it if everythings fine ?
2. Boeing working on software upgrades for MAX.


Don't forget the jury is still out regarding the MCAS's susceptibility to single point failures.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
WIederling
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Wed Dec 05, 2018 8:32 am

SEPilot wrote:
WIederling wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
MAX is NOT fundamentally unstable, and it can fly perfectly well in any regime without MCAS.


Looks very much like the MAX has positive feedback in pitch.
pitch up and pitching up forces escalate. ( engine nacelle drag )
An unstable design.

My understanding is that the MCAS system was only required to make the MAX handle the same as the NG. And that the problem only happened at extreme angles of attack.


Up front: we don't have any official statement from Boeing why MCAS exists, do we?

But IMU:
It is not there to make the MAX handle like the NG. ( i.e. for more or less cosmetic reasons )
It is there to not get into a stable stall.
( that same requirement exists on the NG and every other certified transport class airplane too)
and that is essential.
This "back flip" risk on the MAX seems to be much more pronounced, starting from lower pitch up angles too.
Thus the rather anal design of this MCAS ( bit of a misnomer, isn't it? ) thingy.
Boeing not even advertising the guilded reason for its incorporation imho indicates
that it is stepping very close to if not over certification limits.
Murphy is an optimist
 
WIederling
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:17 am

maint123 wrote:
Poor quality - AOA sensors/system of a brand new plane failing. Points towards issues with quality assurance.


IMU the change of the AoA sensor did not fix the ( spurious at the time ) problem, didn't it?
good chance the sensor wasn't even faulty.
Murphy is an optimist
 
maint123
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Wed Dec 05, 2018 1:33 pm

WIederling wrote:
maint123 wrote:
Poor quality - AOA sensors/system of a brand new plane failing. Points towards issues with quality assurance.


IMU the change of the AoA sensor did not fix the ( spurious at the time ) problem, didn't it?
good chance the sensor wasn't even faulty.

Agreed. That's why I wrote system. Could be sensor, cabling, software thats wrong or requires resetting, processor ; but all tied to AOA feedback and subsequent MCAS reaction.
 
Miquel787
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:36 pm

First of all, 189 people died in this crash.So it.s vital to find the cause.But to yell to the press to cancel the 737 Max orders is so childish because the reputation of Lion air ain.t the best in the business..

What i don.t understand is why Lion Air but the plane in the air after so much problems the day before? Why didn.t they bring in the expertise an knowledge of Boeing specialists instead of fooling around with parts not knowing if it solved the problem.? The 737 was barely three months old and there.s always a sort of a quarantee from Boeing..For me that.s a big question..I.m not so keen on the technical capabilities of the maintenance people at Lion Air.. You don.t fool around with parts if you.re not damn sure it will solve the problem..

If there is a designflaw in the system then Boeing should fix it asap.And surely they will..

Placing a big order is one thing but flying and maintain those airliners is a different league.The costpressure of those LCC.s is huge..To keep the airliners flying but not at costs of human lives. I hope that the NTSB and FAA will investigate the maintenance part of Lion Air and dig out if they made big mistakes or not.

Both Boeing and Airbus build superb airliners, no doubt about that But if an airline is overwhelmed by the complexity of the planes they buy, they should get help from the engineers who build them.And not change parts and put it in the air at all costs..And in my opinion they did.. But maybe i.m completely wrong and of course we have to wait till the final report is out.
 
asdf
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:28 pm

Miquel787 wrote:
....But if an airline is overwhelmed by the complexity of the planes they buy, they should get help from the engineers who build them.And not change parts and put it in the air at all costs..And in my opinion they did.. But maybe i.m completely wrong and of course we have to wait till the final report is out.


my opinion of LCC in this worldregion is pretty bad and my opinion about the quality of the maintenance there is not better.

but who says a peep about what communication took place beetween the carriers maintainance department and the manufactor?

a lot of guys are pretty sure that the manufactor of the engines and of the bird itself have a complete summary about the technical state within minutes from the plugin of the diagnose device

as long as nothing else is known, it can probably be assumed that the troubleshooting on a brand new aircraft was carried out on the basis of the guidelines

who should have an interest to bungle around instead of following prescribed procedures
 
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caoimhin
Posts: 448
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:57 pm

maint123 wrote:
caoimhin wrote:
maint123 wrote:
As i see it a NEW boeing had issues(poor quality) and could not be saved by the pilots due to questionable hidden software interfering in manual mode(incompetence of designers). Now they are changing the software.
Mention of A330 is just whataboutism.


What “poor quality” can you point to as a factor in this case? Has there been new information about “quality”, whatever that means, in this case? Please share it.

What’s more, your conclusion that the aircraft “could not be saved by the pilots” is not established fact, and is in fact negated by the outcome of the previous flight, as well as the fact that the safety bulletin referred to an existing procedure. Are you aware of some objective reason why this flight “could not be saved” in advance of the release of the final report, or are you just offering your personal opinion, coloured by an intensely obvious partisanship?

Poor quality - AOA sensors/system of a brand new plane failing. Points towards issues with quality assurance.
Previous flight relied on luck rather than training , not a good state to be in when responsible for 200 odd souls.Boeing issuing emergency directives regarding MCAS and its presence in manual mode , and now reports of -
1. A american airline changing its AOA feedback on MAX planes. Why do it if everythings fine ?
2. Boeing working on software upgrades for MAX.


So far as I understand, we don’t yet know the cause of the AOA malfunction so any assignment of blame as to that issue on the available facts is premature. Maybe there was a defect (design, manufacturing, maintenance), but which type of defect is not yet an answerable question except to those with an ideological reason for finding fault with either Boeing or the airline.


Regarding the previous flight, what you call “luck”, I would call troubleshooting, but let’s just agree to disagree.
 
smartplane
Posts: 900
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:47 pm

asdf wrote:
Miquel787 wrote:
....But if an airline is overwhelmed by the complexity of the planes they buy, they should get help from the engineers who build them.And not change parts and put it in the air at all costs..And in my opinion they did.. But maybe i.m completely wrong and of course we have to wait till the final report is out.


my opinion of LCC in this worldregion is pretty bad and my opinion about the quality of the maintenance there is not better.

but who says a peep about what communication took place beetween the carriers maintainance department and the manufactor?

a lot of guys are pretty sure that the manufactor of the engines and of the bird itself have a complete summary about the technical state within minutes from the plugin of the diagnose device

as long as nothing else is known, it can probably be assumed that the troubleshooting on a brand new aircraft was carried out on the basis of the guidelines

who should have an interest to bungle around instead of following prescribed procedures

Well said asdf.

As a multiple unit customer, the Lion account management team at Boeing include dedicated technical and parts specialists, who are surely monitoring the fleet almost real time (especially MAX models with supposedly more capability). While all this was happening, were they on annual leave? Unwell? Or are MAX performance monitoring claims over-stated?

Boeing make a big song and dance to financiers and leasors (and presumably operators) that MAX performance / condition monitoring is now up with the 787 and A320.

To-date, we haven't heard what Boeing knew about the condition of this aircraft. Or if Lion contacted Boeing for assistance. Or if Boeing were proactive offering assistance based on the monitoring. Or whether other MAX aircraft have or are displaying the same symptoms.
 
AvObserver
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:21 am

WIederling wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
WIederling wrote:

Looks very much like the MAX has positive feedback in pitch.
pitch up and pitching up forces escalate. ( engine nacelle drag )
An unstable design.

My understanding is that the MCAS system was only required to make the MAX handle the same as the NG. And that the problem only happened at extreme angles of attack.


Up front: we don't have any official statement from Boeing why MCAS exists, do we?

But IMU:
It is not there to make the MAX handle like the NG. ( i.e. for more or less cosmetic reasons )
It is there to not get into a stable stall.
( that same requirement exists on the NG and every other certified transport class airplane too)
and that is essential.
This "back flip" risk on the MAX seems to be much more pronounced, starting from lower pitch up angles too.
Thus the rather anal design of this MCAS ( bit of a misnomer, isn't it? ) thingy.
Boeing not even advertising the guilded reason for its incorporation imho indicates
that it is stepping very close to if not over certification limits.

Methinks you're engaging in an awful lot of speculation before all of the facts are in. This sort of thing is what I was decrying earlier. I think the only thing we can be sure of at this point is that Boeing erred by not disclosing the existence of MCAS to all of its customers and that's a most glaring omission in and of itself. This could surely cost Boeing some current campaigns and a number of existing Lion Air orders although if they really need all of the planes they've ordered from both A and B, it will be impossible to replace all the MAX's with NEO's anytime soon. Therefore, I don't expect too big of a cut in the MAX tally unless Lion decides it can't grow as fast as it was planning to. I think any actual issue with the MCAS or AOA sensors can be ironed out soon but what can't be is the mistrust some Boeing customers may now have over its apparent lack of full disclosure. So the airframer isn't in a good place right now and CEO Muilenberg really has his work cut out for him trying to rebuild that trust.As for Lion, they may well be complicit by way of faulty maintenance and/or a bad decision to dispatch but again, we still must wait for ALL of the facts to be found and fully analyzed. All sides should want that CVR recovered too; it's much needed to shed light on what the pilots were dealing with.
 
imthedreamliner
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:04 pm

How on earth does a manufacturing giant not put an important piece of information into manuals ? Is it ever possible ? I do not think this is ever possible.

They are not selling cell phones, they are selling airplanes and airplanes are very complex machines which require extensive training. I do not think Boeing became a giant by missing important piece of information into procedures. You put a feature into the system and you do not mention it to customer and this is a multi billion transcantion. I do not believe that.
 
kalvado
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:13 pm

imthedreamliner wrote:
How on earth does a manufacturing giant not put an important piece of information into manuals ? Is it ever possible ? I do not think this is ever possible.

They are not selling cell phones, they are selling airplanes and airplanes are very complex machines which require extensive training. I do not think Boeing became a giant by missing important piece of information into procedures. You put a feature into the system and you do not mention it to customer and this is a multi billion transcantion. I do not believe that.

Read about Toyota unintended acceleration - the one they blamed on floor mats. It came down to the blatant violation of fundamental design principles - and I am surprised they managed to sweep it under the carpet.
This thread actually reminds me that "check your damn mats!" scenario...
 
WIederling
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:17 pm

AvObserver wrote:
Methinks you're engaging in an awful lot of speculation before all of the facts are in.
< snip snip snip > .


A very good caveat writeup.

But :-) afaics even if it can be shown that the crew and/or airline was incompetent:

The basic instability covered up by MCAS issue has taken on a life on its own.
Boeing's autistic RTFM as first reaction is just a whipped cream topping here.
Murphy is an optimist
 
WIederling
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:53 pm

kalvado wrote:
Read about Toyota unintended acceleration - the one they blamed on floor mats. It came down to the blatant violation of fundamental design principles - and I am surprised they managed to sweep it under the carpet.
This thread actually reminds me that "check your damn mats!" scenario...


IMU this is false representation of facts:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_un ... a_vehicles

Afaics the whole Toyota thing was cooked up.
Murphy is an optimist
 
BREECH
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:38 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
Indonesia’s Lion Air is reviewing airplane purchases from Boeing Co and has not ruled out canceling orders as relations worsen in a spat over responsibility for a 737 jetliner crash that killed 189 people in late October.


http://www.reuters.com/article/us-indon ... ce=twitter

Will this be the first time Boeing loses orders due to a plane design flaws? Let's hope everyone cancels their orders and teaches Boeing a lesson. Of course it's difficult to pass an offer when a brand new aircraft is sold at scrap value, but they must do it for the safety of their passengers. God only knows what else the McDonnell-Douglas management "forgot" to tell the airlines about their so called airplanes.
No friendship, love or respect unite people as much as shared hatred.
Sergey Dovlatov
 
kalvado
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:41 pm

WIederling wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Read about Toyota unintended acceleration - the one they blamed on floor mats. It came down to the blatant violation of fundamental design principles - and I am surprised they managed to sweep it under the carpet.
This thread actually reminds me that "check your damn mats!" scenario...


IMU this is false representation of facts:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_un ... a_vehicles

Afaics the whole Toyota thing was cooked up.

Cooked up with respect to what? I read some of Mike Barr's texts before they were ordered to be taken offline, you can read his (heavily edited) testimony in the court. It is telling that his name is not even mentioned in the article you linked. Freedom of speech, aha...
It was as bad as one can imagine - and then it was way worse than that. Kudos to Toyota PR team for keeping entire company in business, many companies drifted into extinction after such fuckups that bad.
I don't think that Boeing is that deep in feces here, even under most pessimistic assumptions.
 
WIederling
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:30 pm

kalvado wrote:
It was as bad as one can imagine - and then it was way worse than that. Kudos to Toyota PR team for keeping entire company in business, many companies drifted into extinction after such fuckups that bad.
I don't think that Boeing is that deep in feces here, even under most pessimistic assumptions.


It was an artificially trumped up charge/campaign to damage the standing of Toyota in the US
... to the advantage of the local competitors.
That is why Toyota insisted on having a faultless product ... which amplified the desired campaign effects.

As Boeing is a US company and Lion Air not expect strong hazing of Lion Air. ( Seen here already.)
Murphy is an optimist
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:45 pm

BREECH wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
Indonesia’s Lion Air is reviewing airplane purchases from Boeing Co and has not ruled out canceling orders as relations worsen in a spat over responsibility for a 737 jetliner crash that killed 189 people in late October.


http://www.reuters.com/article/us-indon ... ce=twitter

Will this be the first time Boeing loses orders due to a plane design flaws? Let's hope everyone cancels their orders and teaches Boeing a lesson. Of course it's difficult to pass an offer when a brand new aircraft is sold at scrap value, but they must do it for the safety of their passengers. God only knows what else the McDonnell-Douglas management "forgot" to tell the airlines about their so called airplanes.


US air went over to Airbus after USAir Flight 427 crashed. Boeing stalled to accept responsibility,
 
kalvado
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:49 pm

WIederling wrote:
kalvado wrote:
It was as bad as one can imagine - and then it was way worse than that. Kudos to Toyota PR team for keeping entire company in business, many companies drifted into extinction after such fuckups that bad.
I don't think that Boeing is that deep in feces here, even under most pessimistic assumptions.


It was an artificially trumped up charge/campaign to damage the standing of Toyota in the US
... to the advantage of the local competitors.
That is why Toyota insisted on having a faultless product ... which amplified the desired campaign effects.

As Boeing is a US company and Lion Air not expect strong hazing of Lion Air. ( Seen here already.)

You wish. Toyota's issue was a design clusterfuck. Did you read what Barr wrote on a subject?
BUt we're drifting off-topic
 
BREECH
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:12 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
US air went over to Airbus after USAir Flight 427 crashed. Boeing stalled to accept responsibility,

Thank you! I keep forgetting that flight number even though it's my "favorite" example of how Boeing deteriorated over the years.

And Lion Air sure seems like not such a small customer. An online encyclopedia rates them as "the second largest LCC in Southeast Asia". They have 240 MAXs on order. Not an airline you want to allienate. Unless you are Boeing. :-)
No friendship, love or respect unite people as much as shared hatred.
Sergey Dovlatov
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:43 pm

BREECH wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
US air went over to Airbus after USAir Flight 427 crashed. Boeing stalled to accept responsibility,

Thank you! I keep forgetting that flight number even though it's my "favorite" example of how Boeing deteriorated over the years.

And Lion Air sure seems like not such a small customer. An online encyclopedia rates them as "the second largest LCC in Southeast Asia". They have 240 MAXs on order. Not an airline you want to allienate. Unless you are Boeing. :-)


Where are you getting that Boeing “wants to alienate” LionAir?
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
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crimsonchin
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:06 pm

Doing that would end up hurting them more than it'd hurt Boeing [actually considering how well the MAX will do, Boeing probably wouldn't even be hurt at all outside a few weeks of negative headlines] so this seems like a bluff.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:23 pm

crimsonchin wrote:
Doing that would end up hurting them more than it'd hurt Boeing [actually considering how well the MAX will do, Boeing probably wouldn't even be hurt at all outside a few weeks of negative headlines] so this seems like a bluff.

First, I agree it will help Boeing long run. But I do not consider it a bluff. With the large outstanding NEO order and LionAir having ordered too many...
You know nothing John Snow.
 
AvObserver
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:47 pm

WIederling wrote:
AvObserver wrote:
Methinks you're engaging in an awful lot of speculation before all of the facts are in.
< snip snip snip > .


A very good caveat writeup.

But :-) afaics even if it can be shown that the crew and/or airline was incompetent:

The basic instability covered up by MCAS issue has taken on a life on its own.
Boeing's autistic RTFM as first reaction is just a whipped cream topping here.

I think your claim of basic instability of the MAX is something we can take issue with because you can't possibly know that for sure unless you are a MAX driver yourself. Are you? That the center of gravity changed when the larger engines were moved forward doesn't necessarily mean the aircraft will be less stable in flight. I've not seen any official data that says it is unstable in flight thus far so I think this is an assumption on your part. Perhaps you should qualify it, as maint123 did by putting "As I see it" in your posts on this topic.
 
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flee
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:03 pm

The Lion Air founder has now weighed in and it seems like they are serious with their threat, even though they will suffer penalties:

See: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... re-454238/
 
EChid
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:11 pm

flee wrote:
The Lion Air founder has now weighed in and it seems like they are serious with their threat, even though they will suffer penalties:

See: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... re-454238/

I think people in this thread are focusing on the technical blame for the accident, and not the greater 'political' side of it - companies doing billions of dollars of business still need to have positive relationships with each other. From the looks of it, rather true or not, Boeing is offloading as much blame as possible directly onto Lion Air. Even if the fault lies exclusively with Lion Air (and I doubt it *exclusively* lies with them), as a company it is sort of hard to stomach continuing to give millions and millions of dollars to them given the feeling of betrayal.

It's not what smart money would do, but negative relationships can kill sensible deals, especially when Boeing seems to be working to play into the negative PR for Lion Air right now.

Thinking in more simple terms, Lion Air may simply be saying "This accident would not have happened if the plane was a NEO."
2018: DRW-PER-HKG-ICN-MEL-AVV-BNE-OOL-SYD-YYZ-YYZ-YUL-YVR-PDX-SEA-SFO-PEK-KIX-CDG-IST-NRT-HND-BKK-FAT; AC J-TK J-OZ F-DL F-TG J/F-NH J/F-CX J-VA J
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:19 pm

EChid wrote:
flee wrote:
The Lion Air founder has now weighed in and it seems like they are serious with their threat, even though they will suffer penalties:

See: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... re-454238/

I think people in this thread are focusing on the technical blame for the accident, and not the greater 'political' side of it - companies doing billions of dollars of business still need to have positive relationships with each other. From the looks of it, rather true or not, Boeing is offloading as much blame as possible directly onto Lion Air. Even if the fault lies exclusively with Lion Air (and I doubt it *exclusively* lies with them), as a company it is sort of hard to stomach continuing to give millions and millions of dollars to them given the feeling of betrayal.

It's not what smart money would do, but negative relationships can kill sensible deals, especially when Boeing seems to be working to play into the negative PR for Lion Air right now.

Thinking in more simple terms, Lion Air may simply be saying "This accident would not have happened if the plane was a NEO."

Well, it seems Boeing is just trying to alienate their customers lately: think this accident with Lion Air, think the CSeries lawsuits with DL... We'll see how it plays in the long run.
 
kalvado
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:20 pm

EChid wrote:
flee wrote:
The Lion Air founder has now weighed in and it seems like they are serious with their threat, even though they will suffer penalties:

See: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... re-454238/

I think people in this thread are focusing on the technical blame for the accident, and not the greater 'political' side of it - companies doing billions of dollars of business still need to have positive relationships with each other. From the looks of it, rather true or not, Boeing is offloading as much blame as possible directly onto Lion Air. Even if the fault lies exclusively with Lion Air (and I doubt it *exclusively* lies with them), as a company it is sort of hard to stomach continuing to give millions and millions of dollars to them given the feeling of betrayal.

It's not what smart money would do, but negative relationships can kill sensible deals, especially when Boeing seems to be working to play into the negative PR for Lion Air right now.

Thinking in more simple terms, Lion Air may simply be saying "This accident would not have happened if the plane was a NEO."

One may think AA587 and AA -Airbus relations going along same lines.
 
WIederling
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:36 pm

AvObserver wrote:
WIederling wrote:
AvObserver wrote:
Methinks you're engaging in an awful lot of speculation before all of the facts are in.
< snip snip snip > .


A very good caveat writeup.

But :-) afaics even if it can be shown that the crew and/or airline was incompetent:

The basic instability covered up by MCAS issue has taken on a life on its own.
Boeing's autistic RTFM as first reaction is just a whipped cream topping here.

I think your claim of basic instability of the MAX is something we can take issue with because you can't possibly know that for sure unless you are a MAX driver yourself. Are you? That the center of gravity changed when the larger engines were moved forward doesn't necessarily mean the aircraft will be less stable in flight. I've not seen any official data that says it is unstable in flight thus far so I think this is an assumption on your part. Perhaps you should qualify it, as maint123 did by putting "As I see it" in your posts on this topic.


There is not much "As I see it" available. The facts speak for themselves.
to continue with your misconception:
Now it is not so much the CoG that is of interest here.
It is the CoD "center of drag" and its size that has increased.
( enlarged area has moved forward and upward,.)
pitching up ( beyond a certain value ) this drag creates an amplifying further pitch up moment. -> unstable.
Murphy is an optimist
 
EChid
Posts: 523
Joined: Fri Nov 03, 2017 4:00 am

Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Fri Dec 07, 2018 5:39 pm

kalvado wrote:
EChid wrote:
flee wrote:
The Lion Air founder has now weighed in and it seems like they are serious with their threat, even though they will suffer penalties:

See: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... re-454238/

I think people in this thread are focusing on the technical blame for the accident, and not the greater 'political' side of it - companies doing billions of dollars of business still need to have positive relationships with each other. From the looks of it, rather true or not, Boeing is offloading as much blame as possible directly onto Lion Air. Even if the fault lies exclusively with Lion Air (and I doubt it *exclusively* lies with them), as a company it is sort of hard to stomach continuing to give millions and millions of dollars to them given the feeling of betrayal.

It's not what smart money would do, but negative relationships can kill sensible deals, especially when Boeing seems to be working to play into the negative PR for Lion Air right now.

Thinking in more simple terms, Lion Air may simply be saying "This accident would not have happened if the plane was a NEO."

One may think AA587 and AA -Airbus relations going along same lines.

Perhaps, yes. I don't know how Airbus responded in that situation. To my knowledge, the fault was squarely placed on both AA and the pilot. AA had not sufficiently documented/trained the control issue that Airbus had clearly communicated about, and the pilot had, lacking that knowledge, overapplied the control.

OTOH, AA is still buying *plenty* or Airbuses.
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flee
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Sat Dec 08, 2018 2:54 am

EChid wrote:
flee wrote:
The Lion Air founder has now weighed in and it seems like they are serious with their threat, even though they will suffer penalties:

See: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... re-454238/

I think people in this thread are focusing on the technical blame for the accident, and not the greater 'political' side of it - companies doing billions of dollars of business still need to have positive relationships with each other. From the looks of it, rather true or not, Boeing is offloading as much blame as possible directly onto Lion Air. Even if the fault lies exclusively with Lion Air (and I doubt it *exclusively* lies with them), as a company it is sort of hard to stomach continuing to give millions and millions of dollars to them given the feeling of betrayal.

It's not what smart money would do, but negative relationships can kill sensible deals, especially when Boeing seems to be working to play into the negative PR for Lion Air right now.

Thinking in more simple terms, Lion Air may simply be saying "This accident would not have happened if the plane was a NEO."

I think Lion Air still takes the lion's share of the blame (please excuse the pun!). But Boeing should not have been so defensive as to imply it has zero blame. They should behave more like a partner rather than try to wash their hands off the crash.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Sat Dec 08, 2018 4:04 am

flee wrote:
EChid wrote:
flee wrote:
The Lion Air founder has now weighed in and it seems like they are serious with their threat, even though they will suffer penalties:

See: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... re-454238/

I think people in this thread are focusing on the technical blame for the accident, and not the greater 'political' side of it - companies doing billions of dollars of business still need to have positive relationships with each other. From the looks of it, rather true or not, Boeing is offloading as much blame as possible directly onto Lion Air. Even if the fault lies exclusively with Lion Air (and I doubt it *exclusively* lies with them), as a company it is sort of hard to stomach continuing to give millions and millions of dollars to them given the feeling of betrayal.

It's not what smart money would do, but negative relationships can kill sensible deals, especially when Boeing seems to be working to play into the negative PR for Lion Air right now.

Thinking in more simple terms, Lion Air may simply be saying "This accident would not have happened if the plane was a NEO."

I think Lion Air still takes the lion's share of the blame (please excuse the pun!). But Boeing should not have been so defensive as to imply it has zero blame. They should behave more like a partner rather than try to wash their hands off the crash.


Perhaps, but liability is obviously in play and I don’t think they can afford to be the benevolent manufacturer when faced with a huge financial settlement, lost confidence by other carriers, etc. Not saying they aren’t partially responsible - I’ve said my feelings on that before - but it’s atill a legally tense situation and lawyers are going to rule.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
EChid
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:49 am

PlanesNTrains wrote:
flee wrote:
EChid wrote:
I think people in this thread are focusing on the technical blame for the accident, and not the greater 'political' side of it - companies doing billions of dollars of business still need to have positive relationships with each other. From the looks of it, rather true or not, Boeing is offloading as much blame as possible directly onto Lion Air. Even if the fault lies exclusively with Lion Air (and I doubt it *exclusively* lies with them), as a company it is sort of hard to stomach continuing to give millions and millions of dollars to them given the feeling of betrayal.

It's not what smart money would do, but negative relationships can kill sensible deals, especially when Boeing seems to be working to play into the negative PR for Lion Air right now.

Thinking in more simple terms, Lion Air may simply be saying "This accident would not have happened if the plane was a NEO."

I think Lion Air still takes the lion's share of the blame (please excuse the pun!). But Boeing should not have been so defensive as to imply it has zero blame. They should behave more like a partner rather than try to wash their hands off the crash.


Perhaps, but liability is obviously in play and I don’t think they can afford to be the benevolent manufacturer when faced with a huge financial settlement, lost confidence by other carriers, etc. Not saying they aren’t partially responsible - I’ve said my feelings on that before - but it’s atill a legally tense situation and lawyers are going to rule.

Absolutely. Boeing is doing what they have to in the face of heat from other airlines and wanting to ensure the continued success of one of their most important models. Rock and a hard place.
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acechip
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:11 am

Well Lion Air is well within its rights to cancel if it has a beef with Boeing, you can't deny them that. It could also be something to do with its pilots not feeling up to the task of operating the Max, they've just lost colleagues in an incident which has some bearing on lack of information on the airplane's operating characteristics, and that is not a comfortable feeling. I think Boeing has still not come clean on MCAS. Agreed no airplane is perfect, but when the type has a fatal accident so early in its product life, they have got their work cut out, as did Airbus after the early Air France and Indian Airlines accidents involving the A320.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Sat Dec 08, 2018 8:23 pm

Boeing is between a rock and a hammer. Admit to having done wrong in not fully informing of MCAS and accepting that more training would have been needed for pilots to move from NG to MAX and every lawyer and the insurances go bonkers. Mea culpa is not in the make up of a western corporation. Even if one pays out at a settlement, a non acceptance of fault is included. Compare that with the form in many Asian corporations were the CEO publicly admits fault.
Boeing will probably loose Lion Air as a customer and also get hammered when the FAA puts out a ruling that could imply some fault at Boeing. The worst combined from two worlds.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 7071
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Sat Dec 08, 2018 8:41 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
... also get hammered when the FAA puts out a ruling that could imply some fault at Boeing.


That's not going to happen for a variety of reasons.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 8361
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Sat Dec 08, 2018 8:47 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
... also get hammered when the FAA puts out a ruling that could imply some fault at Boeing.


That's not going to happen for a variety of reasons.


The FAA, even though it seems to have a cozy relationship, has found fault with Boeing before.
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9527
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

Re: Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:31 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Boeing is between a rock and a hammer. Admit to having done wrong in not fully informing of MCAS and accepting that more training would have been needed for pilots to move from NG to MAX and every lawyer and the insurances go bonkers. Mea culpa is not in the make up of a western corporation. Even if one pays out at a settlement, a non acceptance of fault is included. Compare that with the form in many Asian corporations were the CEO publicly admits fault.
Boeing will probably loose Lion Air as a customer and also get hammered when the FAA puts out a ruling that could imply some fault at Boeing. The worst combined from two worlds.


Instead of guessing, why not wait for the investigation to conclude? We have a long ways to go before all the cards are on the table.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.

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