CLTDAL
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Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 12:36 pm

I believe it is because of the following:

* No direction....are they trying to be a low cost carrier or Legacy carrier?

* On Time performance is abysmal

* Leadership all over the place.....who exactly is making all of the pertinent decisions?

* Wall Street and Investor confidence in the airline being able to survive in the "sweet spot" meaning high end service and amenities, but grasping to keep costs low like that of a low cost airline

* Route Map/ Focus Cities- relying too much on the east coast ( very similar to USAir back in the 90's). When weather hits it cripples the operation

* Trying to maintain a HQ and strong operation in the most expensive city in the world- NYC and also BOS

* No Alliance. Too many codeshares. Who wants to fly North to BOS to connect on Hawaiian to fly West again for another 8 hours??

* Need a stronger Midwest presence and possible hub to relieve the operation when the east coast is a mess

* Overall, B6 needs to take that "Leap" of faith and make the change. If they don't, I fear they will go the route of Frontier, Spirit or Sun Country and be forced to become an ULCC. They need to focus on the leisure traveler, yes. BUT- The business traveler is what they NEED to survive.
 
mtb555
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Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 12:51 pm

So your thread title isn't really a question?
 
Chuska
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Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 12:55 pm

I was wondering why B6 stock is so low as well. Thank you for pointing out all these indicators.
 
anshabhi
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Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:09 pm

Well, its not really so low, and its valuations are inline with other US carriers :

Its PE ratio is around 9, compared to:

Alaska Air Group Ltd. 11.21
United Continental Holdings Inc. 12
American Airlines Group Inc. 13.7
Delta Air Lines Inc. 12.1
Southwest Airlines Co. 8.6

Its absolute stock price is low, but that could be because it has too many stocks (in number, i.e 10*10 = 100*1 = 100).
Current Market Price is not how you judge whether a stock is cheap or not! We need to look at ratios like P/E, EPS etc for that (the whole field is called Fundamental Analysis)
 
tphuang
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Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:33 pm

CLTDAL wrote:
I believe it is because of the following:

* No direction....are they trying to be a low cost carrier or Legacy carrier?

* On Time performance is abysmal

* Leadership all over the place.....who exactly is making all of the pertinent decisions?

* Wall Street and Investor confidence in the airline being able to survive in the "sweet spot" meaning high end service and amenities, but grasping to keep costs low like that of a low cost airline

* Route Map/ Focus Cities- relying too much on the east coast ( very similar to USAir back in the 90's). When weather hits it cripples the operation

* Trying to maintain a HQ and strong operation in the most expensive city in the world- NYC and also BOS

* No Alliance. Too many codeshares. Who wants to fly North to BOS to connect on Hawaiian to fly West again for another 8 hours??

* Need a stronger Midwest presence and possible hub to relieve the operation when the east coast is a mess

* Overall, B6 needs to take that "Leap" of faith and make the change. If they don't, I fear they will go the route of Frontier, Spirit or Sun Country and be forced to become an ULCC. They need to focus on the leisure traveler, yes. BUT- The business traveler is what they NEED to survive.


It's pretty suspicious that out of nowhere, you just decide to randomly attack JetBlue when there has already been many threads on their weak financial performance this year. Is it related to them being a thorn on the side of Delta at JFK and BOS?

Their current focus cities are profitable and doing well. Wall street doesn't care about OTP. Wall Street doesn't care about not having alliance or codeshares. Wall Street doesn't care about relying on east coast. They just care about profitability.

They are a premium leisure carrier and have done very well in that position.

Do you have any idea how valuable their operation at JFK is with the terminal space and slots? Their is no ULCC competition at JFK and HPN and minimal ULCC competition at BOS, LGA and EWR. That's really valuable and profitable.

Why do they want deviate from their current focus cities when they haven't finished building them up yet?

Why do they need midwest focus city when that's going to cost a lot of money to build and they haven't finished building their east coast yet?

Their leadership maybe overly conservative and slow, but they have a pretty clear plan of building up BOS and FLL. That takes time. Legacy airlines had decades to build that up. WN had decades to build up BWI, MDW and it's west coast presence. B6 isn't close to finishing building up BOS and FLL. And once that's done, it will build up MCO. There is a clear path here.
 
N766UA
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Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:34 pm

Didn’t they turn a healthy profit? Am I missing something here?
 
PHLspecial
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Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:40 pm

N766UA wrote:
Didn’t they turn a healthy profit? Am I missing something here?


It takes much more than turning a healthy profit per quarter. It is long term stability, increasing profits, overall good product, good leadership direction, and also oil prices.
 
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STT757
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Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:44 pm

* Route Map/ Focus Cities- relying too much on the east coast ( very similar to USAir back in the 90's). When weather hits it cripples the operation


US Air had Charlotte, and Pittsburgh to mitigate against adverse weather in BOS, LGA, PHL, DCA etc..

* Trying to maintain a HQ and strong operation in the most expensive city in the world- NYC and also BOS


They've really been trying to play that Hometown card, partnering with NY State to get the "I Love NY" campaign included in their marketing. But reality is they would benefit from moving the headquarters someplace that would attract more talent in the aviation field, Orlando would be a convenient place for interns and graduates from ERAU.

* No Alliance. Too many codeshares. Who wants to fly North to BOS to connect on Hawaiian to fly West again for another 8 hours??


I think they would benefit from joining Star Alliance, they don't overlap with UA and would compliment Star carriers at JFK, MCO, FLL etc..

* Need a stronger Midwest presence and possible hub to relieve the operation when the east coast is a mess


Take your pick, CLE, STL, PIT or the new MCI would love to have them set up shop. I think they missed the boat on AUS, seems DL has eyes on that airport for a focus city.

* Overall, B6 needs to take that "Leap" of faith and make the change. If they don't, I fear they will go the route of Frontier, Spirit or Sun Country and be forced to become an ULCC. They need to focus on the leisure traveler, yes. BUT- The business traveler is what they NEED to survive.


I think they need to find a sustainable model similar to WN or AS. Don't go the ULCC route, and don't try to be a major.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:56 pm

Their stock is low (compared to other airlines and compared to their own recent history)

Wall Street would like to see them stop growing and maximize revenue OR sell themselves

In layman’s terms that means become an ultra low-cost carrier or sell yourself to another airline.

B6 is an in between carrier. They look like a young Alaska, They look like a low-cost carrier from 20 years ago, they look like they are trying to create a hub and spoke network with NYC BOS and Florida being focuses.

In summation, they are doing what nobody else is doing right now. The profits are marginal, and Wall Street doesnt like it.

If I had to guess, they will likely continue doing what they are doing. I dont expect Europe. I dont expect ULCC. I dont expect a sale merger.

Yet, if there is a downturn, anything is possible.

Little fact for the Europe people. Per the FAA POI, ETOPs approval has been halted for now
 
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chrisnh
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Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 2:14 pm

How close to 'being done' at BOS are they? Halfway there? 75% there? B6 needs either more gates or better utilization of the ones they have (which abysmal OTP doesn't help improve). I think because Logan's footprint is so constrained it'll be more the latter than the former.

I travel a modest amount on business and I belong to both DL and B6 clubs, so I show no favoritism.

To B6's credit is the influx of international flag carriers, several of which wouldn't be here without them.
 
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pitbosflyer
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Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 2:32 pm

CLTDAL wrote:
* Overall, B6 needs to take that "Leap" of faith and make the change. If they don't, I fear they will go the route of Frontier, Spirit or Sun Country and be forced to become an ULCC. They need to focus on the leisure traveler, yes. BUT- The business traveler is what they NEED to survive.


They are well aware of their need for business travelers. Thus their continued large presence in places like JFK and BOS. I mean their MINT offering is forcing every other legacy on transcons to up their game. The competition is being forces to match their prices, while still being profitable for B6.

Although I agree B6 needs to fill out their network in the middle of America more, an airline isn't required to be everywhere! They make money doing what they do now. They just need to slim down their operations and get their costs structure in order. They could be making more money than they are currently...and Wall Street knows this.

As for their continued waffling on TATL travel.......they need to make up their mind. The longer they telegraph their intentions with no action...the less chance they will be successful. If Norwegian decides to improve their premium offering it will really shake up the TATL game even more than they already have.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 2:53 pm

chrisnh wrote:
How close to 'being done' at BOS are they? Halfway there? 75% there? B6 needs either more gates or better utilization of the ones they have (which abysmal OTP doesn't help improve). I think because Logan's footprint is so constrained it'll be more the latter than the former.

I travel a modest amount on business and I belong to both DL and B6 clubs, so I show no favoritism.

To B6's credit is the influx of international flag carriers, several of which wouldn't be here without them.


Right now, they are about 75% done, they are averaging around 150 a day and they/Massport have confirmed the intention to move up to 200 a day (although frankly i think the goal is more than that).
They are going to get more gates. Massport have already given them access to certain E gates, they are also building them 2 new gates as part of the B Consolidation project and B to C connector project. In addition when the move round to B happens in 19. AS and SY will be saying goodbye to C40-C42, which will open up 3 more gates. The question still unknown is when the expansion of E happens with E13-E17, will TP and EI move back to E. EI doesn't need to because of pre-clearance, because of that, they may stay and occupy C20-C21 for the afternoon/evening hours. TP although have a very close affiliation with B6, could well move back to E as a result.
They also could indeed increase the number of turns per gate, right now they are somewhere in the 7 to 8 range. WN on the other hand will run 10-11 out of their gates when they move to B from A next year.
So expansion is definitely possible and more than officially stated, as much as say MCO, nope, we've had that discussion elsewhere, but there is still room to grow from the existing plans and footprint at BOS.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
fastmover
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Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 2:58 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Their stock is low (compared to other airlines and compared to their own recent history)

Wall Street would like to see them stop growing and maximize revenue OR sell themselves

In layman’s terms that means become an ultra low-cost carrier or sell yourself to another airline.

B6 is an in between carrier. They look like a young Alaska, They look like a low-cost carrier from 20 years ago, they look like they are trying to create a hub and spoke network with NYC BOS and Florida being focuses.

In summation, they are doing what nobody else is doing right now. The profits are marginal, and Wall Street doesnt like it.

If I had to guess, they will likely continue doing what they are doing. I dont expect Europe. I dont expect ULCC. I dont expect a sale merger.

Yet, if there is a downturn, anything is possible.

Little fact for the Europe people. Per the FAA POI, ETOPs approval has been halted for now



The FAA POI told you that?
Interesting it hasn’t made the news on the pilot forums.
 
tphuang
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Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 3:06 pm

fastmover wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Their stock is low (compared to other airlines and compared to their own recent history)

Wall Street would like to see them stop growing and maximize revenue OR sell themselves

In layman’s terms that means become an ultra low-cost carrier or sell yourself to another airline.

B6 is an in between carrier. They look like a young Alaska, They look like a low-cost carrier from 20 years ago, they look like they are trying to create a hub and spoke network with NYC BOS and Florida being focuses.

In summation, they are doing what nobody else is doing right now. The profits are marginal, and Wall Street doesnt like it.

If I had to guess, they will likely continue doing what they are doing. I dont expect Europe. I dont expect ULCC. I dont expect a sale merger.

Yet, if there is a downturn, anything is possible.

Little fact for the Europe people. Per the FAA POI, ETOPs approval has been halted for now



The FAA POI told you that?
Interesting it hasn’t made the news on the pilot forums.


sorry for complete ignorance here. Is that halted for all new applicants? I didn't think JetBlue had already started ETOPS process.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 3:57 pm

B6 needs a Warren Buffet-style buyout so they can think a bit more long-term in their decision-making. Less quarter to quarter focus, which holds airlines back from pursuing broader strategies. That’s not to say that BH would be uber-patient but decisions that might not pass muster on Wall Street might actually be approved.

Or not.
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MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
stlgph
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Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 4:18 pm

CLTDAL wrote:
I believe it is because of the following:

* No direction....are they trying to be a low cost carrier or Legacy carrier?

* On Time performance is abysmal

* Leadership all over the place.....who exactly is making all of the pertinent decisions?

* Wall Street and Investor confidence in the airline being able to survive in the "sweet spot" meaning high end service and amenities, but grasping to keep costs low like that of a low cost airline

* Route Map/ Focus Cities- relying too much on the east coast ( very similar to USAir back in the 90's). When weather hits it cripples the operation

* Trying to maintain a HQ and strong operation in the most expensive city in the world- NYC and also BOS

* No Alliance. Too many codeshares. Who wants to fly North to BOS to connect on Hawaiian to fly West again for another 8 hours??

* Need a stronger Midwest presence and possible hub to relieve the operation when the east coast is a mess

* Overall, B6 needs to take that "Leap" of faith and make the change. If they don't, I fear they will go the route of Frontier, Spirit or Sun Country and be forced to become an ULCC. They need to focus on the leisure traveler, yes. BUT- The business traveler is what they NEED to survive.



The stock price is low because of corporate cost control and its affect on returning a dividend on the price shareholders paid to shareholders.

The ideas listed are entirely pointless.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
MKIAZ
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Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 4:35 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
B6 needs a Warren Buffet-style buyout so they can think a bit more long-term in their decision-making. Less quarter to quarter focus, which holds airlines back from pursuing broader strategies. That’s not to say that BH would be uber-patient but decisions that might not pass muster on Wall Street might actually be approved.

Or not.


I doubt Buffet would buy B6. Buffet owns 10% stakes in the big US airlines. The thing is, he can only fully buy/own one airline. So why would he buy B6 which is relatively tiny, when he could buy AA/UA/DL.

IMO, AA makes the most sense for him to buy. AA has the worst balance sheet and would benefit the most from having the backing of BRK. He could even buy up their debt on the private market for a good price before announcing an offer to buy them. Then, BRK could offer in house financing of all new AC deliveries at great rates, and potentially start an AC leasing arm. They are always looking for smart ways to deploy capital, this makes alot of sense. The real issue standing in the way though is the workforce. Hate it or love it, no one wants to buy a company where the employees can basically hold the company hostage for more, more more every couple years.
 
AA94
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Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 4:40 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
B6 needs a Warren Buffet-style buyout so they can think a bit more long-term in their decision-making. Less quarter to quarter focus, which holds airlines back from pursuing broader strategies. That’s not to say that BH would be uber-patient but decisions that might not pass muster on Wall Street might actually be approved.

Or not.


Agreed. The quarter-to-quarter focus that Wall Street demands isn't sustainable, especially for a carrier that's still maturing its business model rather than taking a more traditional ULCC path. They also need to install more nimble leaders -- JetBlue is almost painfully slow and conservative in their decisionmaking. No one's suggesting recklessness, but it takes this leadership team a week to watch 60 Minutes.

I quite seriously expect to see Europe flying. Mint has been a margin leader for JetBlue, and *IF* they can figure out the complexities, longer stage length flying would certainly be beneficial in a market that's ripe for disruption.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 4:47 pm

MKIAZ wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
B6 needs a Warren Buffet-style buyout so they can think a bit more long-term in their decision-making. Less quarter to quarter focus, which holds airlines back from pursuing broader strategies. That’s not to say that BH would be uber-patient but decisions that might not pass muster on Wall Street might actually be approved.

Or not.


I doubt Buffet would buy B6. Buffet owns 10% stakes in the big US airlines. The thing is, he can only fully buy/own one airline. So why would he buy B6 which is relatively tiny, when he could buy AA/UA/DL.

IMO, AA makes the most sense for him to buy. AA has the worst balance sheet and would benefit the most from having the backing of BRK. He could even buy up their debt on the private market for a good price before announcing an offer to buy them. Then, BRK could offer in house financing of all new AC deliveries at great rates, and potentially start an AC leasing arm. They are always looking for smart ways to deploy capital, this makes alot of sense. The real issue standing in the way though is the workforce. Hate it or love it, no one wants to buy a company where the employees can basically hold the company hostage for more, more more every couple years.


Maybe the workforce issue is the reason why he would buy B6 over AA? while I agree with much that you say above and makes a lot of sense, that last couple of sentences could in theory flip the whole conversation.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
evank516
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Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 4:50 pm

AA94 wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
B6 needs a Warren Buffet-style buyout so they can think a bit more long-term in their decision-making. Less quarter to quarter focus, which holds airlines back from pursuing broader strategies. That’s not to say that BH would be uber-patient but decisions that might not pass muster on Wall Street might actually be approved.

Or not.


Agreed. The quarter-to-quarter focus that Wall Street demands isn't sustainable, especially for a carrier that's still maturing its business model rather than taking a more traditional ULCC path. They also need to install more nimble leaders -- JetBlue is almost painfully slow and conservative in their decisionmaking. No one's suggesting recklessness, but it takes this leadership team a week to watch 60 Minutes.

I quite seriously expect to see Europe flying. Mint has been a margin leader for JetBlue, and *IF* they can figure out the complexities, longer stage length flying would certainly be beneficial in a market that's ripe for disruption.


I have to question their slow and conservative decision making after axing multiple routes, closing 2 stations completely, reducing one station to seasonal, and announcing all of it in one day.
Last edited by evank516 on Tue Dec 04, 2018 4:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
MKIAZ
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Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 4:50 pm

CLTDAL wrote:
I believe it is because of the following:
* No direction....are they trying to be a low cost carrier or Legacy carrier?
* On Time performance is abysmal
* Leadership all over the place.....who exactly is making all of the pertinent decisions?
* Wall Street and Investor confidence in the airline being able to survive in the "sweet spot" meaning high end service and amenities, but grasping to keep costs low like that of a low cost airline
* Route Map/ Focus Cities- relying too much on the east coast ( very similar to USAir back in the 90's). When weather hits it cripples the operation
* Trying to maintain a HQ and strong operation in the most expensive city in the world- NYC and also BOS
* No Alliance. Too many codeshares. Who wants to fly North to BOS to connect on Hawaiian to fly West again for another 8 hours??
* Need a stronger Midwest presence and possible hub to relieve the operation when the east coast is a mess
* Overall, B6 needs to take that "Leap" of faith and make the change. If they don't, I fear they will go the route of Frontier, Spirit or Sun Country and be forced to become an ULCC. They need to focus on the leisure traveler, yes. BUT- The business traveler is what they NEED to survive.


As others have said, no no no.
They are a low cost carrier, but it's pretty obvious they are not trying to imitate the business model of spirit/frontier. And no they aren't trying to be a legacy carrier. They focus almost entirely on O/D.

Wall street doesn't care about OTP except as it relates to profit/earnings.
Leadership is slow, and cautious. And looking at the history of the airline industry and all the $$$ lost, I can't blame them.

Being able to survive in the sweet spot isn't an issue. The biggest costs by a mile are Fuel, AC leasing and Labor. Wifi and snacks doesn't really even move the needle. It's really all about revenue now. Being able to attract customers at higher fares due to their better legroom and experience is key. And they are in the perfect spot as even the legacy carriers undertake more densification.

They're an east coast airline. So what? Intra-west coast flying has mostly trash yields anyway (thank WN). B6 is KILLING It on their transcon routes. That's all they need.

Sure, moving HQ to a low cost area could save some money. But it's a big one time cost, and could result in loss of talent.


Overall, B6 is fine. They are slightly cheaper than other airlines right now (and they have a very nice balance sheet). They had a bad quarter recently. Airlines in general have been hit pretty hard as of late with fuel spiking and the economy possibly starting to slow.

My opinion is they are held up by Airbus and the 321LR/XLR. They need these planes to really start an aggressive growth push into Europe and South America (which would be WAAAAAAY smarter than trying to make a west coast or mid-con hub). But it doesn't help them to announce their plans much before putting tickets on sale - it would just give their competitors a head start. So they may very well have 321LR/XLR on order for a year or two out and they may very well be working on ETOPS certification. But I wouldn't expect any announcements until much closer to launch date for competitive reasons. So you have this period of silence and this seemingly great growth opportunity which can seem frustrating for investors.
 
FermiParadox
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Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 4:55 pm

STT757 wrote:
They've really been trying to play that Hometown card, partnering with NY State to get the "I Love NY" campaign included in their marketing. But reality is they would benefit from moving the headquarters someplace that would attract more talent in the aviation field, Orlando would be a convenient place for interns and graduates from ERAU.


I thought you wanted them in a place that would get more talent. ERAU, from experience, just outputs entitled employees who think that understanding "airplanes" means understanding "business"
 
sargester
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Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:00 pm

FermiParadox wrote:
STT757 wrote:
They've really been trying to play that Hometown card, partnering with NY State to get the "I Love NY" campaign included in their marketing. But reality is they would benefit from moving the headquarters someplace that would attract more talent in the aviation field, Orlando would be a convenient place for interns and graduates from ERAU.


I thought you wanted them in a place that would get more talent. ERAU, from experience, just outputs entitled employees who think that understanding "airplanes" means understanding "business"


If you want the best from the industry odds are they went to Embry riddle, I’ll leave it at that
 
stlgph
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Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:03 pm

sargester wrote:
FermiParadox wrote:
STT757 wrote:


I thought you wanted them in a place that would get more talent. ERAU, from experience, just outputs entitled employees who think that understanding "airplanes" means understanding "business"


If you want the best from the industry odds are they went to Embry riddle, I’ll leave it at that


The best at what? Let's see a list of ERAU grads in the board room.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:04 pm

Warren Buffet seldom (never ?) buys marginal companies. Typically they buy well managed businesses who dominate their particular industry. Avoiding Wall Street market failure (ever higher quarters, rent seeking management etc) is difficult, and any number of great companies have agreed to be bought in order to improve already great businesses. JetBlue is not such a business.

As a side note both they and Alaska realized they had to get bigger to compete with the big 6, now bigger 3. Question: Could a real merger (not an expensive buyout with crippling debt) put Frontier and JetBlue together?
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
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Revelation
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Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:06 pm

STT757 wrote:
* Route Map/ Focus Cities- relying too much on the east coast ( very similar to USAir back in the 90's). When weather hits it cripples the operation

US Air had Charlotte, and Pittsburgh to mitigate against adverse weather in BOS, LGA, PHL, DCA etc..

I'm not sure I'd call PIT a fair weather station, it tends to get whacked by the same stuff that hits the East Coast.

STT757 wrote:
* Trying to maintain a HQ and strong operation in the most expensive city in the world- NYC and also BOS

They've really been trying to play that Hometown card, partnering with NY State to get the "I Love NY" campaign included in their marketing. But reality is they would benefit from moving the headquarters someplace that would attract more talent in the aviation field, Orlando would be a convenient place for interns and graduates from ERAU.

Then they'd be a real Mickey Mouse operation! :biggrin:
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
fastmover
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Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:15 pm

tphuang wrote:
fastmover wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Their stock is low (compared to other airlines and compared to their own recent history)

Wall Street would like to see them stop growing and maximize revenue OR sell themselves

In layman’s terms that means become an ultra low-cost carrier or sell yourself to another airline.

B6 is an in between carrier. They look like a young Alaska, They look like a low-cost carrier from 20 years ago, they look like they are trying to create a hub and spoke network with NYC BOS and Florida being focuses.

In summation, they are doing what nobody else is doing right now. The profits are marginal, and Wall Street doesnt like it.

If I had to guess, they will likely continue doing what they are doing. I dont expect Europe. I dont expect ULCC. I dont expect a sale merger.

Yet, if there is a downturn, anything is possible.

Little fact for the Europe people. Per the FAA POI, ETOPs approval has been halted for now



The FAA POI told you that?
Interesting it hasn’t made the news on the pilot forums.


sorry for complete ignorance here. Is that halted for all new applicants? I didn't think JetBlue had already started ETOPS process.



They did start and from what I was told hired a company to work on it for them. That’s all I know.
 
FermiParadox
Posts: 83
Joined: Fri Jul 21, 2017 3:05 pm

Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:23 pm

sargester wrote:
FermiParadox wrote:
STT757 wrote:


I thought you wanted them in a place that would get more talent. ERAU, from experience, just outputs entitled employees who think that understanding "airplanes" means understanding "business"


If you want the best from the industry odds are they went to Embry riddle, I’ll leave it at that


Oscar Munoz - USC / Pepperdine
Scott Kirby - Air Force Academy
Ed Bastian - St. Bonaventure
Doug Parker - Albion
Robert Isom - Notre Dame / Michigan
Derek Kerr - Michigan
Gary Kelly - Texas

Nailed it bro. Literally not one ERAU alum at the top of the mountain.

In fact, your post is exactly why I've fired more ERAU people than any other college. They get hyped up by the school as the "Harvard of the skies" (LOL). They come into the airlines thinking they know everything, but the company is a business more than anything. ERAU kids don't do well in commercial roles at an airline. They're better suited for customer experience roles, or customer facing roles. In the meantime I'll stick to hiring Texas, Purdue, Illinois, or Auburn alums.
 
SurlyBonds
Posts: 331
Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2015 10:24 am

Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:25 pm

STT757 wrote:

They've really been trying to play that Hometown card, partnering with NY State to get the "I Love NY" campaign included in their marketing. But reality is they would benefit from moving the headquarters someplace that would attract more talent in the aviation field, Orlando would be a convenient place for interns and graduates from ERAU..


ERAU may produce deep technical knowledge of piloting and other aviation skills, but that does not inherently translate into quality business leadership. Technical knowledge of aviation does not, for example, inherently make one a persuasive communicator when interacting with customers, regulators, Wall Street, or other stakeholders.

For example, look at how Apple disrupted consumer technology. Before the iMac/iPhone era, "complexity" was almost a point of pride among technologists, and user manuals were virtually indecipherable to the average consumer. Apple changed that with "it just works." And while it is true that Steve Jobs came from within the industry, he himself said that Apple was a "humanities company" and credited his love of fields such as typography and fonts for creating Apple's design thinking.

New York City is the USA's hub for fashion and hospitality, not to mention business and finance. It will be much easier to convince promising management and leadership talent to move there than to Orlando. (Again, witness how the fix was basically in for the NY-DC region in Amazon's recent HQ2 search. Amazon was never going to Columbus.) If JetBlue wants to open a pilot base, sure, consider Orlando. But its HQ belongs in New York.
 
tphuang
Posts: 2994
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:30 pm

fastmover wrote:
tphuang wrote:
fastmover wrote:


The FAA POI told you that?
Interesting it hasn’t made the news on the pilot forums.


sorry for complete ignorance here. Is that halted for all new applicants? I didn't think JetBlue had already started ETOPS process.



They did start and from what I was told hired a company to work on it for them. That’s all I know.


I wonder if they are waiting for the XLR. That seems to be the perfect aircraft to not only Europe but also South America.
 
MKIAZ
Posts: 244
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 5:24 am

Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:39 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
As a side note both they and Alaska realized they had to get bigger to compete with the big 6, now bigger 3. Question: Could a real merger (not an expensive buyout with crippling debt) put Frontier and JetBlue together?


Well Frontier is privately held, by Indigo Partners (Wizz air, Volaris). So they would likely raise debt and buy B6 outright if it was to happen. The real issue is that B6 and Frontier have entirely different business models. B6's bread and butter is providing good service out of their major hubs at BOS/JFK/FLL. Fontier's is providing the cheapest price in a cramped seat and charging for extras without much regard for customer service or brand loyalty.

B6/AS merger makes way more sense. But I think ultimately B6 is fine on it's own without a merger. They have alot of room for organic growth. AS is really stuck between a rock and a hard place with B6 taking share on transcons (and forcing legacies to up their game / lower their price), and WN dominating west coast flying.
 
MKIAZ
Posts: 244
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 5:24 am

Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:44 pm

tphuang wrote:
fastmover wrote:
tphuang wrote:

sorry for complete ignorance here. Is that halted for all new applicants? I didn't think JetBlue had already started ETOPS process.



They did start and from what I was told hired a company to work on it for them. That’s all I know.


I wonder if they are waiting for the XLR. That seems to be the perfect aircraft to not only Europe but also South America.


I think so too. Just like they were cautious and deferred the NEO's I bet if they had a LR order they delayed it for the XLR. Seems like the best AC for the job.

I would also bet they seriously looked at the 330NEO and I wouldn't entirely rule it out for them. They're building widebody gates at JFK, and it seems like an awful waste to potentially acquire LHR slots to use a 321 on - and we all know they can basically print money on FLL/JFK/BOS-LHR
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 2998
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:51 pm

Neither JetBlue nor Frontier have stability in their business models, in fact both have been characterized by instability.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
rbavfan
Posts: 3143
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2015 5:53 am

Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:59 pm

STT757 wrote:
* Route Map/ Focus Cities- relying too much on the east coast ( very similar to USAir back in the 90's). When weather hits it cripples the operation


US Air had Charlotte, and Pittsburgh to mitigate against adverse weather in BOS, LGA, PHL, DCA etc..

* Trying to maintain a HQ and strong operation in the most expensive city in the world- NYC and also BOS


They've really been trying to play that Hometown card, partnering with NY State to get the "I Love NY" campaign included in their marketing. But reality is they would benefit from moving the headquarters someplace that would attract more talent in the aviation field, Orlando would be a convenient place for interns and graduates from ERAU.

* No Alliance. Too many codeshares. Who wants to fly North to BOS to connect on Hawaiian to fly West again for another 8 hours??


I think they would benefit from joining Star Alliance, they don't overlap with UA and would compliment Star carriers at JFK, MCO, FLL etc..

* Need a stronger Midwest presence and possible hub to relieve the operation when the east coast is a mess


Take your pick, CLE, STL, PIT or the new MCI would love to have them set up shop. I think they missed the boat on AUS, seems DL has eyes on that airport for a focus city.

* Overall, B6 needs to take that "Leap" of faith and make the change. If they don't, I fear they will go the route of Frontier, Spirit or Sun Country and be forced to become an ULCC. They need to focus on the leisure traveler, yes. BUT- The business traveler is what they NEED to survive.


I think they need to find a sustainable model similar to WN or AS. Don't go the ULCC route, and don't try to be a major.



Sorry but I would call Newark UA hub & B6 JFK hub overlapping each other. Also the alliances overrated are to benefit the founding airlines. Joining them would be less beneficial to B6 and more beneficial to UA. No need for thaat.
 
B752OS
Posts: 1158
Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2005 4:05 am

Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 6:10 pm

This is all just setting up nicely for a B6/AS merger in 2020.
 
IADCA
Posts: 1846
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:24 am

Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 6:17 pm

I'm not sure a.net is the most effective place to test out your arguments for the proxy fight, but good luck with that.

Seriously, it's a little interesting how often these transparent posts get made by people on here. What, you mad someone dodged your question on an earnings call?
 
User avatar
pitbosflyer
Posts: 347
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 6:18 pm

Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 6:31 pm

IADCA wrote:
What, you mad someone dodged your question on an earnings call?


:lol:
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 5397
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 6:58 pm

Etops started and now paused or stopped
 
santi319
Posts: 810
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2005 3:24 pm

Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:01 pm

Oh God the monthly Jetblue thread with the regular jetblue fans, Europe is imminent comments, etc..

Truth is, no idea how jetblue makes money, their Cuba flights, their situation at LGB, their CASM, their perfomance in general... assets may be an explanation but it really is no surprise an investor would question their ability to make profits...
 
tphuang
Posts: 2994
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:19 pm

santi319 wrote:
Oh God the monthly Jetblue thread with the regular jetblue fans, Europe is imminent comments, etc..

Truth is, no idea how jetblue makes money, their Cuba flights, their situation at LGB, their CASM, their perfomance in general... assets may be an explanation but it really is no surprise an investor would question their ability to make profits...


Guess what, their most profitable station for large portion of year is at FLL against your NK. They had actually had high margins than NK in Q4 of 2017 and Q1 this year.

And if you need to figure out why they are making money, just take a look at their huge RASM advantage over WN and NK at FLL. Have you ever looked at how much NK and B6 charges for FLL-LAX? Sure, they have high CASM for a LCC, but they are not a low fare carrier. hey get legacy type of fares at their big stations.

NK made some network adjustments this year and they are doing great now. Congrats. B6 has been forced to do the same since their Q2 disaster and their numbers will look a lot better in Q4 and Q1.
 
questions
Posts: 1954
Joined: Thu Sep 15, 2011 4:51 am

Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:38 pm

B752OS wrote:
This is all just setting up nicely for a B6/AS merger in 2020.


This is exactly right. After losing their trademark offering, legroom, by densifying their aircraft to chase revenue growth, B6’s next growth vector will be expansion through acquisition. By 2020, AS will have completed the integration of VX and will look, feel and operate as one entity; will just be hitting its stride; and will be walloped by a recession. B6 and AS, looking for survival and growth, will merge.
 
TheLunchbox
Posts: 45
Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:31 pm

Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:47 pm

This is such a click-bait thread. It should be closed.
 
fastmover
Posts: 419
Joined: Mon Mar 30, 2015 5:37 pm

Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 8:51 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Etops started and now paused or stopped



So if you know (respectfully)
“Or” is not acceptable which is it

Paused

Stopped?
 
fastmover
Posts: 419
Joined: Mon Mar 30, 2015 5:37 pm

Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Tue Dec 04, 2018 8:52 pm

santi319 wrote:
Oh God the monthly Jetblue thread with the regular jetblue fans, Europe is imminent comments, etc..

Truth is, no idea how jetblue makes money, their Cuba flights, their situation at LGB, their CASM, their perfomance in general... assets may be an explanation but it really is no surprise an investor would question their ability to make profits...



And the regular JetBlue is finished group.
Heck jumbo jet should be along soon.
 
santi319
Posts: 810
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2005 3:24 pm

Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:19 am

tphuang wrote:
santi319 wrote:
Oh God the monthly Jetblue thread with the regular jetblue fans, Europe is imminent comments, etc..

Truth is, no idea how jetblue makes money, their Cuba flights, their situation at LGB, their CASM, their perfomance in general... assets may be an explanation but it really is no surprise an investor would question their ability to make profits...


Guess what, their most profitable station for large portion of year is at FLL against your NK. They had actually had high margins than NK in Q4 of 2017 and Q1 this year.

And if you need to figure out why they are making money, just take a look at their huge RASM advantage over WN and NK at FLL. Have you ever looked at how much NK and B6 charges for FLL-LAX? Sure, they have high CASM for a LCC, but they are not a low fare carrier. hey get legacy type of fares at their big stations.

NK made some network adjustments this year and they are doing great now. Congrats. B6 has been forced to do the same since their Q2 disaster and their numbers will look a lot better in Q4 and Q1.


Sure, but NK stock still is 3.5 times that of jetblue so...
 
deltal1011man
Posts: 5332
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:17 am

Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:27 am

CLTDAL wrote:
I believe it is because of the following:

* No direction....are they trying to be a low cost carrier or Legacy carrier?

* On Time performance is abysmal

* Leadership all over the place.....who exactly is making all of the pertinent decisions?

* Wall Street and Investor confidence in the airline being able to survive in the "sweet spot" meaning high end service and amenities, but grasping to keep costs low like that of a low cost airline

* Route Map/ Focus Cities- relying too much on the east coast ( very similar to USAir back in the 90's). When weather hits it cripples the operation

* Trying to maintain a HQ and strong operation in the most expensive city in the world- NYC and also BOS

* No Alliance. Too many codeshares. Who wants to fly North to BOS to connect on Hawaiian to fly West again for another 8 hours??

* Need a stronger Midwest presence and possible hub to relieve the operation when the east coast is a mess

* Overall, B6 needs to take that "Leap" of faith and make the change. If they don't, I fear they will go the route of Frontier, Spirit or Sun Country and be forced to become an ULCC. They need to focus on the leisure traveler, yes. BUT- The business traveler is what they NEED to survive.

Ah yes. No company in the world does well as far as stocks go if they are based in high cost cities like NYC, LA, SF, DC, BOS, CHI etc. "laughs in Apple and Goggle stock"
 
tphuang
Posts: 2994
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:33 am

santi319 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
santi319 wrote:
Oh God the monthly Jetblue thread with the regular jetblue fans, Europe is imminent comments, etc..

Truth is, no idea how jetblue makes money, their Cuba flights, their situation at LGB, their CASM, their perfomance in general... assets may be an explanation but it really is no surprise an investor would question their ability to make profits...


Guess what, their most profitable station for large portion of year is at FLL against your NK. They had actually had high margins than NK in Q4 of 2017 and Q1 this year.

And if you need to figure out why they are making money, just take a look at their huge RASM advantage over WN and NK at FLL. Have you ever looked at how much NK and B6 charges for FLL-LAX? Sure, they have high CASM for a LCC, but they are not a low fare carrier. hey get legacy type of fares at their big stations.

NK made some network adjustments this year and they are doing great now. Congrats. B6 has been forced to do the same since their Q2 disaster and their numbers will look a lot better in Q4 and Q1.


Sure, but NK stock still is 3.5 times that of jetblue so...

Do you know the difference between stock price and market cap? This really is a pretty funny statement
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 5397
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:53 am

fastmover wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Etops started and now paused or stopped



So if you know (respectfully)
“Or” is not acceptable which is it

Paused

Stopped?



Not ongoing at this time. From the POI.
 
luv2cattlecall
Posts: 805
Joined: Fri Sep 28, 2007 6:25 am

Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:08 am

tphuang wrote:
santi319 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

Guess what, their most profitable station for large portion of year is at FLL against your NK. They had actually had high margins than NK in Q4 of 2017 and Q1 this year.

And if you need to figure out why they are making money, just take a look at their huge RASM advantage over WN and NK at FLL. Have you ever looked at how much NK and B6 charges for FLL-LAX? Sure, they have high CASM for a LCC, but they are not a low fare carrier. hey get legacy type of fares at their big stations.

NK made some network adjustments this year and they are doing great now. Congrats. B6 has been forced to do the same since their Q2 disaster and their numbers will look a lot better in Q4 and Q1.


Sure, but NK stock still is 3.5 times that of jetblue so...

Do you know the difference between stock price and market cap? This really is a pretty funny statement



Finally, thanks. I thought I'd been missing something because something so obvious hadn't been mentioned, until I saw your post.

JetBlue is worth $5.6 billion (stock price multiplied by number of shares, and Spirit is worth $4.3 billion.
 
stlgph
Posts: 10969
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:19 pm

Re: Why is JetBlue's Stock SO LOW??

Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:26 am

JetBlue has more than 310 million outstanding shares on the market closing today at $18.74 a share today.
The average recommendation is HOLD, the target price is $20.

Spirit has just more than 68 million outstanding shares on the market at $63 a share.
The recommendation is OVER, the target price is $68 with several revisions coming in ... some pushing into the $90 range by the end of 2020.


MarketCap does not measure the equity value of a company. So if you're going to come on here and say JetBlue is the better company because the total market cap is higher....dont, because you aren't right.

It needs to be figured by the Enterprise Value.
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