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keesje
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Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:12 pm

Southwest still has 500 737-700s to replace & deferred their small 737-7 order to after 2024.

737-7 rejected by market
Legacy Boeing, faced with the prospect of launching the New Midmarket Aircraft next year with a target-EIS of 2025, faces replacing the 737 after the NMA.

The 737-7 has been rejected by the market, with fewer than 70 sold since the MAX program was launched in 2011.

........https://leehamnews.com/2018/12/06/boeing-deal-crucial-to-embraer-survival-in-doubt/

Image
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-02/southwest-moves-up-40-max-737-8-orders-delays-23-max-7-planes

SW has been converting -7 orders to -8 and buying used -700s. For the <150 seat segment the E195-E2, E220-300 and a 737-7 come-back seem possible candidates. I think the -7 was stretched late in the process, specially for launching customer SW.

In April 30 yrs SW veteran Kelly said they might get many -7s , but SW is doing the opposite. The -7 now is a kind of orphan fleet with Southwest and no one is ordering any.
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avier
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:32 pm

Because they realised the economics of the 737-8 /800 series is way better then the mini -7 /700 model. But they can't openly admit that, because they are the largest operator of the 737-700. Easyjet was in a similar dilemma when they got the A320, and had a eureka moment like " oh heck , why didn't we get this before.

And now Easyjet went for something still bigger and better , the A321neo
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:40 pm

avier wrote:
Because they realised the economics of the 737-8 /800 series is way better then the mini -7 /700 model. But they can't openly admit that, because they are the largest operator of the 737-700. Easyjet was in a similar dilemma when they got the A320, and had a eureka moment like " oh heck , why didn't we get this before.

And now Easyjet went for something still bigger and better , the A321neo


The economics of the -800 are better if you can sell the seats at reasonable yield. There are still large swaths of WN’s network where that is not true.
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MIflyer12
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:51 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
avier wrote:
Because they realised the economics of the 737-8 /800 series is way better then the mini -7 /700 model. But they can't openly admit that, because they are the largest operator of the 737-700. Easyjet was in a similar dilemma when they got the A320, and had a eureka moment like " oh heck , why didn't we get this before.

And now Easyjet went for something still bigger and better , the A321neo


The economics of the -800 are better if you can sell the seats at reasonable yield. There are still large swaths of WN’s network where that is not true.


When one of the primary goals is commonality (and, heck yeh, has WN shown a decades-long love for commonality), the key measure is differential trip cost, not average yield. Maybe when WN gets down to 100-150 -700s can one argue there's a need for something smaller (or not - they could dump small destinations).

195-E2s? P=zero on that. For an LCC, WN has very well-paid pilots. Pilots won't want a lower pay band. 195-E2s won't offer the needed labor-dollar productivity.
Last edited by MIflyer12 on Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
SWADawg
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:53 pm

WN is getting 7 MAX-7’s in 2019 and the remainder of their -7 order book around 2024 or so. There has been rumors flying around that WN might actually be considering the A220 as a -700 replacement. If they do end up ordering more MAX-7’s, they won’t makeup the same percentage of the total fleet that the -700’s do currently. Obviously management likes the economics of the -800/MAX-8 better than the MAX-7, however, WN will still need an Aircraft in the MAX-7 size for their extensive point to point network. Whether that ends up being the MAX-7, the A220, or the EMB190 E2 is anyone’s guess at this point.
My posts are my opinion only and do not reflect the views of Southwest Airlines
 
texl1649
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:59 pm

SWA is taking 73M7’s next year. Boeing is launching the NMA/NSA family next year, and integrating it’s Embraer partnership/acquisition. I suspect they have a plan to figure out with their largest 737 operator how to sustain and update that fleet.
 
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:04 pm

WN started with the 737-200, which was largely replaced by the 737-300, which was a step up in size. They did buy a few 737-500s, which were the same size as the -200s, but by and large they went for the larger model. Then, when the NGs came out they resisted the urge to upgrade again, buying the 737-700 almost exclusively until the last few years, when they have started buying -800s. It seems they have decided on another upgrade with the MAX, buying almost all 737-8MAXs and only a few -7s. And maybe they will end up converting those to -8s as well. It is likely that the extra cost of flying the -8s is more than overcome by the extra revenue earned when the planes are full, even when more planes are not full.
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jplatts
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:09 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
The economics of the -800 are better if you can sell the seats at reasonable yield. There are still large swaths of WN’s network where that is not true.


WN will likely order more 737 MAX 7's beyond the 30 737 MAX 7's already on order since WN still serves many smaller markets in the contiguous U.S. where planes smaller than the 737 MAX 8 are a better fit.
 
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:12 pm

https://leehamnews.com/2018/03/01/south ... ing-737-7/

"Earlier this year, Southwest deferred delivery of 23 of 30 7 MAXs from the next two years until 2023-24.
Kelly, responding to a question from LNC, said he expects that perhaps 60% of the fleet will eventually be the MAX 7. Southwest currently has more than 500 737-700s.:
 
avier
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:13 pm

SEPilot wrote:
WN started with the 737-200, which was largely replaced by the 737-300, which was a step up in size. They did buy a few 737-500s, which were the same size as the -200s, but by and large they went for the larger model. Then, when the NGs came out they resisted the urge to upgrade again, buying the 737-700 almost exclusively until the last few years, when they have started buying -800s. It seems they have decided on another upgrade with the MAX, buying almost all 737-8MAXs and only a few -7s. And maybe they will end up converting those to -8s as well. It is likely that the extra cost of flying the -8s is more than overcome by the extra revenue earned when the planes are full, even when more planes are not full.


That's what's eventually going to happen. Most can't seem to digest that news however. Because for them this airline is all about being a ~150 seat airline. Even the airline themselves can't publically say that yet, as it goes against their basic principle they stuck too. They will however retain a small number of the -7 variant for short runway airports, like the one they just overann at recently.
It was the exact same case with Easyjet.

They can also consider the 737-800/MAX short field package if they haven't already. Not sure if MAX has that yet.
 
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:26 pm

[quote="avier"]Because they realised the economics of the 737-8 /800 series is way better then the mini -7 /700 model. But they can't openly admit that, because they are the largest operator of the 737-700. Easyjet was in a similar dilemma when they got the A320, and had a eureka moment like " oh heck , why didn't we get this before.

And now Easyjet went for something still bigger and better , the A321neo[/quote]

Maybe that is what it proves - you may be right.

But I suspect a talk to the WN strategists (as I, for one, would dearly love to do ...) would in fact reveal that:

1) there were extremely cheap, good-quality 737-700s coming onto the market; and while that was the case, the extremely low acquisition costs of those 737-700s meant that the BULK of the MAX7 fleet was necessarily deferred.

2) meanwhile, I note that WN will take a few MAX7s.
As you would ... for a multitude of reasons, some contractual, no doubt. Some not? Maybe they just want to have a little look, just in case??? :D

3) I love Keesje's visuals. But make no mistake:

He continually counts-down on BA's products.
Indeed (if he can get away with it ...) he continually counts them out.

Looks like a strategy to me.

So beware! :yes:



cheers
Billy
 
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:34 pm

texl1649 wrote:
SWA is taking 73M7’s next year. Boeing is launching the NMA/NSA family next year, and integrating it’s Embraer partnership/acquisition. I suspect they have a plan to figure out with their largest 737 operator how to sustain and update that fleet.


Big call!

Care to share?

cheers
Billy
 
DfwRevolution
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:35 pm

avier wrote:
Because they realised the economics of the 737-8 /800 series is way better then the mini -7 /700 model. But they can't openly admit that, because they are the largest operator of the 737-700.


Thats totally unfounded. The 737-700 made perfect sense when WN ordered them because WN had one of the lowest load factors of U.S carriers through the 90s and 00s. The -800 would have just been flying around more empty seats. WN studied the -800 and larger models continuously and then finally exercised their option to convert when load factors started rising.
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:45 pm

keesje wrote:
Southwest still has 500 737-700s to replace & deferred their small 737-7 order to after 2024.

737-7 rejected by market
Legacy Boeing, faced with the prospect of launching the New Midmarket Aircraft next year with a target-EIS of 2025, faces replacing the 737 after the NMA.

The 737-7 has been rejected by the market, with fewer than 70 sold since the MAX program was launched in 2011.

........https://leehamnews.com/2018/12/06/boeing-deal-crucial-to-embraer-survival-in-doubt/

Image
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-02/southwest-moves-up-40-max-737-8-orders-delays-23-max-7-planes

SW has been converting -7 orders to -8 and buying used -700s. For the <150 seat segment the E195-E2, E220-300 and a 737-7 come-back seem possible candidates. I think the -7 was stretched late in the process, specially for launching customer SW.

In April 30 yrs SW veteran Kelly said they might get many -7s , but SW is doing the opposite. The -7 now is a kind of orphan fleet with Southwest and no one is ordering any.



Southwest = WN (not SW).

WN will still need many 737-7MAX planes. Not all routes can support an -800, both from a passenger standpoint and from a runway operational standpoint on some of the airports they operate from.

I’m not sure what ‘In April 30 yrs SW’ means, so I cannot comment on that.
Whatever
 
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 3:09 pm

Ufsatp wrote:
https://leehamnews.com/2018/03/01/southwest-ceo-sees-60-fleet-becoming-737-7/

"Earlier this year, Southwest deferred delivery of 23 of 30 7 MAXs from the next two years until 2023-24.
Kelly, responding to a question from LNC, said he expects that perhaps 60% of the fleet will eventually be the MAX 7. Southwest currently has more than 500 737-700s.:


It's more likely that WN is going to use a small subfleet of 7MAX aircraft for specialized missions before going whole hog into the 73G replacement.

Looking at the 73G fleet, our dutch friend made a few errors, chief among them that WN is still buying second hand airframes. This practice ended last year, no more used 73Gs are coming, so we'll see that fleet total stable for a while till retirements start. WN ran many 733s out to 90,000+ hours, and the WN fleet leaders for the 73Gs are sitting right around 70,000 hours, so I wouldn't expect much movement on those retirements for 5 or so years unless some massive corrosion problem is discovered.
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 3:25 pm

FriscoHeavy wrote:
I’m not sure what ‘In April 30 yrs SW’ means, so I cannot comment on that.


Read the whole quote: "In April 30 yrs SW veteran Kelly said they might get many -7s"

It may have been better written as, "Gary Kelly, a 30 year veteran of WN, said this past April that they might get many -7s"
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 3:32 pm

Keesje, the answer to what’s the status is pretty simple. The 737-700s are still young enough not to need replacement, and it will be a while before more 150 seat jets are needed

]Southwest flies many small capacity routes. A 737-700 is still on the big side for St Louis to Tulsa or Boston to Columbus or Boise to Sacramento. Southwest goes after point to point markets and fills the rest of the plane with lower yielding one stop routes (such as filling up Boston to Columbus flight by having the plane continue to Ft Myers). Many of their routes become unworkable with larger 737s. The nonstop O/D is the highest yielding. The added one stop traffic is lower yielding.

The good news is that they don’t need 500 smaller 737s. They have expanded into bigger cities and have plenty of use for 737-800s and 737-8s to get a balanced fleet. However one day they will need more smaller airplanes again to replace 737-700s when a sufficient number of them have existed the fleet.
Last edited by Newbiepilot on Sun Dec 09, 2018 3:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
DfwRevolution
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 3:50 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
Southwest flies many small capacity routes. A 737-700 is still on the big side for St Louis to Tulsa or Boston to Columbus or Boise to Sacramento. Southwest goes after point to point markets and fills the rest of the plane with lower yielding one stop routes (such as filling up Boston to Columbus flight by having the plane continue to Ft Myers). Many of their routes become unworkable with larger 737s. The nonstop O/D is the highest yielding. The added one stop traffic is lower yielding.

The good news is that they don’t need 500 smaller 737s. They have expanded into bigger cities and have plenty of use for 737-800s and 737-8s to get a balanced fleet. However one day they will need more smaller airplanes again to replace 737-700s when a sufficient number of them have existed the fleet.


Also not to be overlooked: the U.S. population grew by about 40 million people between the first WN 737-700 delivery and the first WN 737-800 delivery. There’s a lot more people flying now than 20 years ago.
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amcnd
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 4:08 pm

SWA needs to think outside the box. 787’s and then they need a regional to fly to the Midwest city’s in a E175. Thats how i would run it. Look up flight aware. Filter by operator. SWA. It’s astonishing how they can see that everyday, and not see the gap they are missing...
 
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 4:15 pm

amcnd wrote:
SWA needs to think outside the box. 787’s and then they need a regional to fly to the Midwest city’s in a E175. Thats how i would run it. Look up flight aware. Filter by operator. SWA. It’s astonishing how they can see that everyday, and not see the gap they are missing...


Their pilots might have something to say about adding a regional jet at a competitive pay rate. And it’s likely not going to be “sure”.
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MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 4:44 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
avier wrote:
Because they realised the economics of the 737-8 /800 series is way better then the mini -7 /700 model. But they can't openly admit that, because they are the largest operator of the 737-700. Easyjet was in a similar dilemma when they got the A320, and had a eureka moment like " oh heck , why didn't we get this before.

And now Easyjet went for something still bigger and better , the A321neo


The economics of the -800 are better if you can sell the seats at reasonable yield. There are still large swaths of WN’s network where that is not true.

I agree with others. You are not looking at differential cost to fly.

The -8 MAX costs very little more than the -7 MAX to fly. So unless you need the shortfield performance of the -7 MAX, you will be able to get enough added revenue in the -8 MAX to have a higher profit margin during peak seasons (Thanksgiving, Christmas, Spring Break, and Summer). The number of small markets that pay a premium is declining with the ULCC airline growth. WN must adopt their model for the new competition as others have already alluded to.

I happen to agree with others that WN must follow U2 to the larger gauge (-10 MAX, in this case) to bring down unit costs. Failure to do so will create an issue after the LEAP CMC PIP. Please recall the GE9x is the first engine with CMC turbine components (fixed parts), then we'll see the 2nd stage turbine blades (the rotating blades) and later (much later?) the 1st stage turbine blades. Each of these improvements will have more economic advantage to larger aircraft than smaller. That is just the nature of PIPs.

Lightsaber
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amcnd
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 4:46 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
amcnd wrote:
SWA needs to think outside the box. 787’s and then they need a regional to fly to the Midwest city’s in a E175. Thats how i would run it. Look up flight aware. Filter by operator. SWA. It’s astonishing how they can see that everyday, and not see the gap they are missing...


Their pilots might have something to say about adding a regional jet at a competitive pay rate. And it’s likely not going to be “sure”.



Yes they sure do!! No regionals. But at the gain of 787’s and higher pay. I think they could come to a agreement for that...
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 4:54 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
avier wrote:
Because they realised the economics of the 737-8 /800 series is way better then the mini -7 /700 model. But they can't openly admit that, because they are the largest operator of the 737-700. Easyjet was in a similar dilemma when they got the A320, and had a eureka moment like " oh heck , why didn't we get this before.

And now Easyjet went for something still bigger and better , the A321neo


The economics of the -800 are better if you can sell the seats at reasonable yield. There are still large swaths of WN’s network where that is not true.

I agree with others. You are not looking at differential cost to fly.

The -8 MAX costs very little more than the -7 MAX to fly. So unless you need the shortfield performance of the -7 MAX, you will be able to get enough added revenue in the -8 MAX to have a higher profit margin during peak seasons (Thanksgiving, Christmas, Spring Break, and Summer). The number of small markets that pay a premium is declining with the ULCC airline growth. WN must adopt their model for the new competition as others have already alluded to.

I happen to agree with others that WN must follow U2 to the larger gauge (-10 MAX, in this case) to bring down unit costs. Failure to do so will create an issue after the LEAP CMC PIP. Please recall the GE9x is the first engine with CMC turbine components (fixed parts), then we'll see the 2nd stage turbine blades (the rotating blades) and later (much later?) the 1st stage turbine blades. Each of these improvements will have more economic advantage to larger aircraft than smaller. That is just the nature of PIPs.

Lightsaber


Where I think we part company is the idea that there is no role for the -7 aside for where the short field capabilities are necessary (though I would note that that’s actually a decent swath of the network between MDW and various Southern California airports). Certainly as the marginal trip cost goes down the -8 makes more sense on more routes, but WN can and does build whole lines of flights with loads of 130 or 135 passengers at the fares WN likes. Stuff like STL-DTW or BNA-CMH or SJC-SNA doesn’t magically get bulky just because the cost differential decreases.
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ewt340
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 5:05 pm

Because B737MAX7 would have slightly longer fuselage with an extra 46" longer aft fuselage and an extra 30" longer forward fuselage.
This means that it would add 2 more rows of economy class seats. Southwest current B737-700 carry 143 seats at 31" seat pitch and a pair of lavatory behind the last row of seats. This would mean that B737MAX7 would carry 155 seats at 31" seat pitch and a pair of lavatory instead of 143 seats on B737-700.

155 passengers mean minimum of 4 Flight attendants to operate. Which is the same as the 175 seats on B737-800/MAX8.

So, same amount of pilots and flight attendants for B737MAX7 while carrying 20 less passengers than B737-800/MAX8.

Also, the MAX7 is a bulked up plane that utilize B737MAX8 components, which is not a good combinations for fuel efficiency. From the wing, landing gear, structural re-gauging and strengthening, etc.
 
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 5:29 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Because B737MAX7 would have slightly longer fuselage with an extra 46" longer aft fuselage and an extra 30" longer forward fuselage.
This means that it would add 2 more rows of economy class seats. Southwest current B737-700 carry 143 seats at 31" seat pitch and a pair of lavatory behind the last row of seats. This would mean that B737MAX7 would carry 155 seats at 31" seat pitch and a pair of lavatory instead of 143 seats on B737-700.

155 passengers mean minimum of 4 Flight attendants to operate. Which is the same as the 175 seats on B737-800/MAX8.

So, same amount of pilots and flight attendants for B737MAX7 while carrying 20 less passengers than B737-800/MAX8.

Also, the MAX7 is a bulked up plane that utilize B737MAX8 components, which is not a good combinations for fuel efficiency. From the wing, landing gear, structural re-gauging and strengthening, etc.


If that's the case with the -7Max , I wonder what's the difference in fuel burn between the -8 and -7 ? If it's not that much, I again don't see a business case for the -7 apart from runway capabilities. Again, the -8 may have the short field performance package. And it's just 30 seats more !!
Also, aren't their bigger rivals replacing old MD's with larger 321/737's ? I know they might be reducing frequencies to keep seat count same.
Also doesn't the US air travel market grow YoY. by some % ?Like another user pointed out.
Aren't there slot issues at many major airports?
Pilot shortage?
And lastly , the probable miniscule difference in operating cost between the smaller and bigger variant.
 
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 5:41 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

The economics of the -800 are better if you can sell the seats at reasonable yield. There are still large swaths of WN’s network where that is not true.

I agree with others. You are not looking at differential cost to fly.

The -8 MAX costs very little more than the -7 MAX to fly. So unless you need the shortfield performance of the -7 MAX, you will be able to get enough added revenue in the -8 MAX to have a higher profit margin during peak seasons (Thanksgiving, Christmas, Spring Break, and Summer). The number of small markets that pay a premium is declining with the ULCC airline growth. WN must adopt their model for the new competition as others have already alluded to.

I happen to agree with others that WN must follow U2 to the larger gauge (-10 MAX, in this case) to bring down unit costs. Failure to do so will create an issue after the LEAP CMC PIP. Please recall the GE9x is the first engine with CMC turbine components (fixed parts), then we'll see the 2nd stage turbine blades (the rotating blades) and later (much later?) the 1st stage turbine blades. Each of these improvements will have more economic advantage to larger aircraft than smaller. That is just the nature of PIPs.

Lightsaber


Where I think we part company is the idea that there is no role for the -7 aside for where the short field capabilities are necessary (though I would note that that’s actually a decent swath of the network between MDW and various Southern California airports). Certainly as the marginal trip cost goes down the -8 makes more sense on more routes, but WN can and does build whole lines of flights with loads of 130 or 135 passengers at the fares WN likes. Stuff like STL-DTW or BNA-CMH or SJC-SNA doesn’t magically get bulky just because the cost differential decreases.

Perhaps those specific routes do not bulk up. But perhaps the next leg? WN doesn't but for route pairs, but a network. The -8 should only cost about 3.5% more per flight. If 300 days a year the seats fly empty, so what? The peak days sell for more to generate a higher profit margin. Although SNA, BUR, and MDW need shortfield performance.

As NK and G4 keep growing, they are able to stimulate traffic. G4 also parks aircraft on unpopular days pushing passengers away from Tuesday and Wednesday during non-peaktimes. DL and others persue a similar model.

I see a need for, at most, 200 -7 at WN. The issue for other airlines is resale (I'm aware WN buys cash). This limits WN's model which has historically bought used many airframes. I believe a good amount of the 73Gs were purchased due to much higher used 738 pricing.

It will be interesting to see how well DL and B6 used the A220 which has a lower cost per passenger. However, WN isn't flexible enough in pilot rules I'm aware. I wonder how much that will matter?

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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 5:52 pm

I cannot find a link on projected -7 fuel burn.
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... -737-max-7

However, note Boeing is selling for hot/high capability. It will complete with the A329 SHARP kit and A220 family. Both of which have better per seat economics and excellent short field capability.

I know WN keeps one pilot pool. But there are core strength and core regidities. DL and WN have almost the same profit margin by two very different approaches. I believe the A220 will help DL tremendously (but I'm a Pratt fan and thus biased). We shall see.

I believe WN needs the -10 MAX. Then again, LAX is close and WN needs to move more people through. The -8 helped, the -10 will be better. :spin:

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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 6:05 pm

amcnd wrote:
SWA needs to think outside the box. 787’s and then they need a regional to fly to the Midwest city’s in a E175. Thats how i would run it. Look up flight aware. Filter by operator. SWA. It’s astonishing how they can see that everyday, and not see the gap they are missing...


You are speaking like they are a struggling airline. They have had the most successful business model, with consistent profitability. Regionals are not the profit center for any of the majors, and WN and all airlines want the more profitable p2p traffic followed by the hub connecting traffic.

The 737-7 (and 700 before it) fits the Southwest model.
 
JoeCanuck
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 6:15 pm

The -700's will be around for decades to come, and the 500 or so they have will serve them nicely for whatever niche markets can't handle a -800/-8.

For the foreseeable future, there really isn't much of a need for Southwest to go through the expense and effort of introducing a new aircraft type.

lightsaber wrote:

I believe WN needs the -10 MAX. Then again, LAX is close and WN needs to move more people through. The -8 helped, the -10 will be better. :spin:

Lightsaber


:checkmark: Give this man a cookie. I agree that WN's upgauge trend will continue to the -10.
Last edited by JoeCanuck on Sun Dec 09, 2018 6:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
What the...?
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 6:16 pm

If anyone needs short field performance in the United States, it is Southwest. They have big operations in BUR, SNA, MDW, HOU, etc. Using exclusively 737-8s on those shorter runways may trash the engines. I could see them wanting performance more than other airlines to avoid weight restrictions.
 
Bricktop
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 6:53 pm

Will they have an issue when the MAX7 arrives, similar to the problem with MAX8. They had to get rid of the 733s before the MAX entered into service. Or are the MAX7 and 8 similar enough that the FAA isn't concerned?
 
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keesje
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 7:33 pm

I think the 737-7 was stretched a bit for Southwest to fit just under 150 seats uncompromized.

Btw Easyjet continues taking/ordering A320's next to A321s.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
ewt340
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 7:43 pm

avier wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Because B737MAX7 would have slightly longer fuselage with an extra 46" longer aft fuselage and an extra 30" longer forward fuselage.
This means that it would add 2 more rows of economy class seats. Southwest current B737-700 carry 143 seats at 31" seat pitch and a pair of lavatory behind the last row of seats. This would mean that B737MAX7 would carry 155 seats at 31" seat pitch and a pair of lavatory instead of 143 seats on B737-700.

155 passengers mean minimum of 4 Flight attendants to operate. Which is the same as the 175 seats on B737-800/MAX8.

So, same amount of pilots and flight attendants for B737MAX7 while carrying 20 less passengers than B737-800/MAX8.

Also, the MAX7 is a bulked up plane that utilize B737MAX8 components, which is not a good combinations for fuel efficiency. From the wing, landing gear, structural re-gauging and strengthening, etc.


If that's the case with the -7Max , I wonder what's the difference in fuel burn between the -8 and -7 ? If it's not that much, I again don't see a business case for the -7 apart from runway capabilities. Again, the -8 may have the short field performance package. And it's just 30 seats more !!
Also, aren't their bigger rivals replacing old MD's with larger 321/737's ? I know they might be reducing frequencies to keep seat count same.
Also doesn't the US air travel market grow YoY. by some % ?Like another user pointed out.
Aren't there slot issues at many major airports?
Pilot shortage?
And lastly , the probable miniscule difference in operating cost between the smaller and bigger variant.


I don't have much info on the fuel burn yet. But looking at other cases like B787-8 and B787-9. Many airlines now prefer to buy B787-9 because of the fuel burn and operating costs. It's similar but the -9 carry more passengers.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 7:43 pm

jplatts wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
The economics of the -800 are better if you can sell the seats at reasonable yield. There are still large swaths of WN’s network where that is not true.


WN will likely order more 737 MAX 7's beyond the 30 737 MAX 7's already on order since WN still serves many smaller markets in the contiguous U.S. where planes smaller than the 737 MAX 8 are a better fit.


I bet the MAX7's will mostly be used for international destinations to take advantage of its range. By the time the the 700's need large scale replacement for thinner domestic routes, a lighter more economical to operate aircraft will fill its niche. There are lots of WN destinations for which a 143 seat 700 or 149 seat 7MAX are just too big. They have really cut back on frequencies to some of their smaller cities since the 500 left the fleet a couple of years ago.
Last edited by flyingclrs727 on Sun Dec 09, 2018 7:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
SXDFC
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 7:46 pm

The 737-7MAX will not have any issues during EIS. From my understanding the FAA wouldn’t allow WN pilots to fly the 733 and the MAX at the same time. Someone can most definitely clarify or correct me on that one.

The 797 will be quite interesting, I believe someone said or noted as SWA being interested in it?
 
ewt340
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 7:47 pm

keesje wrote:
I think the 737-7 was stretched a bit for Southwest to fit just under 150 seats uncompromized.

Btw Easyjet continues taking/ordering A320's next to A321s.


I think the stretch was given to attract more LCC to it. They are certified to carry up to 172 pax. Closer to A320's 186 pax.

Southwest are taking hit in their fuel efficiency X passengers ratio with 150 pax, but they saved on some money on a Flight Attendant on each flight.

So, they are taking hit on fuel efficiency and 2 pilots dilema.

Besides, they already decided to order 260 B737MAX8. I think they are ready to move to bigger territory.
 
tphuang
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 8:12 pm

There are so many routes they operate where 700 is already too much capacity. They get very little additional revenue on 800 that would be able to overcome the higher purchase cost, the extra fa and operation cost. They need the 700 imo.
 
INFINITI329
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 8:14 pm

Southwest is in for a rude awakening once they have to compete head to head with the CS100/300s of their competitors. Neither 73G nor 7M7 will win against them. Southwest's yield on these routes will take a beating. Keep eye on routes involving LAX, ATL, MCO & FLL this is where I believe it will start.

lightsaber wrote:
I believe WN needs the -10 MAX. Then again, LAX is close and WN needs to move more people through. The -8 helped, the -10 will be better.


I always thought the Max 9 would have been the least painful upgrade to WN's fleet.
-It allows for an additional 25 seats to max out at 200 pax with no additional F/A required. F/A cost would remain flat notwithstanding any contractual limitations
- Can use 85%+ gates already striped already for the 738/7M8. Length: 738/7M8 129 ft 8 in / 7M9 138 ft 4 in difference of 8ft 6 in (not all gates can accommodate the additional length.)
- Pilot cost will rise slightly as contractually anything above 175 seats will require an adjustment to pay. Unkwon if F/A's have contractual language that mirror's the pilots. If not they will probably seek an equipment pay boost. Any increases in crew pay should be able to be absorbed by selling the 176th seat.
- Unless WN will use the Max 9 to South America the 3550nm & auxiliary fuel tank may not be needed making the Max 9 a little lighter.
- Going with any longer 737 model, I believe the open seating concept must be eliminated. Assigned seating introduced and an economy plus like product introduced as well
- Max 9 would supplement the 738/7M8 in limited numbers
- Key to all this would be Boeing introducing the Max 10 gear on the Max 9.
 
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Super80Fan
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 8:26 pm

I don't really get WN's fleet strategy on the routes they operate. For example, one of the routes I fly a lot MCO-BDL sees both the -700 and -800 or MAX-8. Even worse back in the "classic" days, it saw -300's, -700's, and -800's. Same flights as well but on different days. Do they use the time of day/day of week to measure how much they are going to fill the plane? I've been on completely full -800's, -700's, and half empty -300's/-700's/-800's.
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PlanesNTrains
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 8:32 pm

Super80Fan wrote:
I don't really get WN's fleet strategy on the routes they operate. For example, one of the routes I fly a lot MCO-BDL sees both the -700 and -800 or MAX-8. Even worse back in the "classic" days, it saw -300's, -700's, and -800's. Same flights as well but on different days. Do they use the time of day/day of week to measure how much they are going to fill the plane? I've been on completely full -800's, -700's, and half empty -300's/-700's/-800's.


I think WN builds lines of flying that include segments that might max out the capacity and segments that underutilize it. I think a lot of that is just due to how they operate. When I track the planes I'm on with them, they generally are all over the place that day, versus hub-and-spoke/out-and-back operations. This means that there's not really an opportunity to swap it out midday (if needed) like on a traditional hub-and-spoke carrier from what I can see. That's just my take on it.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
SPREE34
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 8:37 pm

Bricktop wrote:
Will they have an issue when the MAX7 arrives, similar to the problem with MAX8. They had to get rid of the 733s before the MAX entered into service. Or are the MAX7 and 8 similar enough that the FAA isn't concerned?


MAX7 and MAX8 are the same airplane for rating purposes.
I don't understand everything I don't know about this.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 8:43 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
If anyone needs short field performance in the United States, it is Southwest. They have big operations in BUR, SNA, MDW, HOU, etc. Using exclusively 737-8s on those shorter runways may trash the engines. I could see them wanting performance more than other airlines to avoid weight restrictions.

You are thinking about the 738 (737NG-800) vs. -8 MAX. The LEAP engines are far better optimized for higher thrust. By trash, I assume you mean cycles between overhauls. That said, the -7 will inherently have better short field performance than the -8. WN is just one of the few airlines locked into the 737 instead of a lighter A220 or E2-190 which will have better per seat economics.

As I posted above, I fully expect WN to buy a bunch of -7s. I also expect the bulk of the 73Gs to be replaced by -8s or -10s.

Bricktop wrote:
Will they have an issue when the MAX7 arrives, similar to the problem with MAX8. They had to get rid of the 733s before the MAX entered into service. Or are the MAX7 and 8 similar enough that the FAA isn't concerned?

No. The issue was putting 3 types of 737 on one pilot training. Since WN is required to have one homogeneous pilot pool (albeit, with seniority privileges), they had issues most other airlines will not have. They now can have MAX and NG. Before they had classic and NG. They previously flew the 73G, 738, 733, and 735 without issue. Now they will fly the 73G, 738, -8 MAX, and eventually -7 MAX. Other than determining a pilot contract, there is absolutely no other reason not to fly the -10 MAX other than a few airports were gate length might be an issue.

INFINITI329 wrote:
Southwest is in for a rude awakening once they have to compete head to head with the CS100/300s of their competitors. Neither 73G nor 7M7 will win against them. Southwest's yield on these routes will take a beating. Keep eye on routes involving LAX, ATL, MCO & FLL this is where I believe it will start.

I concur that the A220 family (please, it is the A220-100 and A220-300, there is no more CS100/300 that were only marketing names anyway) will be an awakening. In particular if Moxie pursues the model they market (I'm not convinced they won't switch strategies after launch). But there need to be more A220 sales to impact WN significantly. (e.g., AA or UA). Or E2-195 sales. Either way...

Lightsaber
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TWA772LR
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 9:06 pm

SWA is going to need a smaller capacity plane eventually.

My dream fleet for them is:
100 seat 190E2/A220-100 (2 FAs max)
130 seat 195E2/A220-300
149 seat 7MAX
175 seat 8MAX
199 seat 10MAX (4 FAs max)

As much as I'd love to see the A220 win out, the favor is definitely in Embraers favor because of their closeness to Boeing.

Sidebar: I think SWA would do well with interline agreements with Norwegian and EK but thats for another thread. :)
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737max8
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 9:28 pm

Southwest has ~500 -700
Southwest has ~ 250 -800/MAX8

GK has said he wants the fleet to be closer to 50/50 between the -700 and -800/MAX8.

This is why they are just getting MAX8's now. Once the fleet is closer to 50/50 I bet you will see a ton of MAX7 come or alternate A/C for -700 replacement.

Also the MAX7 will be 150 seats, not 149. This has been announced.
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RJMAZ
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:11 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Because B737MAX7 would have slightly longer fuselage with an extra 46" longer aft fuselage and an extra 30" longer forward fuselage.
This means that it would add 2 more rows of economy class seats. Southwest current B737-700 carry 143 seats at 31" seat pitch and a pair of lavatory behind the last row of seats. This would mean that B737MAX7 would carry 155 seats at 31" seat pitch and a pair of lavatory instead of 143 seats on B737-700.

155 passengers mean minimum of 4 Flight attendants to operate. Which is the same as the 175 seats on B737-800/MAX8.

On seatguru I found many 737-800's just above the 150 seat limit. With 151-160 seats in a 2 cass cabin. According to you they would be better removing a tiny amount of seats to get it down to 150 seats for 3 flight attendants.

It is worth noting the south west 737-700 fleet operates either 137 or 143 seats with 32" and 31" pitch respectively. The 737-7 fits exactly 149 seats with 32" pitch and 2 lavs.

Southwest has received a huge amount of negative feedback when they went from 137 to 143 seats. The slimline seats have less recline.
 
DfwRevolution
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:29 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
SWA is going to need a smaller capacity plane eventually.


Why? The “they’ll run out of new markets” fallacy?
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737max8
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:52 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Because B737MAX7 would have slightly longer fuselage with an extra 46" longer aft fuselage and an extra 30" longer forward fuselage.
This means that it would add 2 more rows of economy class seats. Southwest current B737-700 carry 143 seats at 31" seat pitch and a pair of lavatory behind the last row of seats. This would mean that B737MAX7 would carry 155 seats at 31" seat pitch and a pair of lavatory instead of 143 seats on B737-700.

155 passengers mean minimum of 4 Flight attendants to operate. Which is the same as the 175 seats on B737-800/MAX8.

On seatguru I found many 737-800's just above the 150 seat limit. With 151-160 seats in a 2 cass cabin. According to you they would be better removing a tiny amount of seats to get it down to 150 seats for 3 flight attendants.

It is worth noting the south west 737-700 fleet operates either 137 or 143 seats with 32" and 31" pitch respectively. The 737-7 fits exactly 149 seats with 32" pitch and 2 lavs.

Southwest has received a huge amount of negative feedback when they went from 137 to 143 seats. The slimline seats have less recline.


The 737-700 is all 143 seats at 31" pitch. 2 lavs.

The 737-800/MAX8 is 175 seats at 32" pitch. 3 lavs.

The MAX7 will be 150 seats with 32" pitch AND 3 lavs.
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TWA772LR
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:28 pm

DfwRevolution wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
SWA is going to need a smaller capacity plane eventually.


Why? The “they’ll run out of new markets” fallacy?

Not necessarily that they'll run out, but it will allow them to grow more substantially. They can operate the smaller aircraft in similar fashion to the 737s to connect the dots better, ie MDW-DSM-DEN or BNA-ICT-PHX, connecting smaller cities they serve to hubs that arent connected to those cities as through flights.
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zippy
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:37 pm

lightsaber wrote:
So unless you need the shortfield performance of the -7 MAX, you will be able to get enough added revenue in the -8 MAX to have a higher profit margin during peak seasons (Thanksgiving, Christmas, Spring Break, and Summer).


Doesn't Southwest need the runway performance? Burbank comes to mind obviously, but what about Oakland and Midway where they run a ton of flights? Southwest had to delay a couple flights after the AN-225 left Oakland because the other runways weren't long enough. What happens if, in the aftermath of the latest overrun, runway length requirements get adjusted upwards?

Having a smaller variant available seems like a prudent idea for an airline that doesn't fly exclusively into larger airports. Maybe it'll be an incentive for Southwest to buy into a different aircraft family from whichever manufacturer.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:33 am

I think Southwest is facing a big strategic decision which they are going to have to make within the next 5-7 years. The question is whether they want to maintain the small-airport, small-plane model or focus more on the biggest markets, from which they've been deriving an increasing share of their revenue. The two options imply vastly different fleet decisions.

Keeping smaller destinations and smaller planes implies the need for another fleet type. The 737 MAX 7, which is heavier and more capable than the -700, isn't going to cut it when they are competing against E175s flown by regional pilots and A220s on mainline. I think keeping that strategy would almost obligate them to get either the E2 or the A220 in massive numbers, and I'm not at all surprised to hear:

SWADawg wrote:
There has been rumors flying around that WN might actually be considering the A220 as a -700 replacement.


Moving toward the larger markets would enable them to stick with the 737 as a single fleet type, but also implies that upgauging will be necessary. MAX 8s will replace -700s over time, and 200-seat MAX 9s or 10s will eventually supplement and replace -800s. The MAX 8 is a better field performer than the -800 and will be perfectly happy to do the longer routes out of BUR, MDW, and the like.

The MAX 7 is out of luck in either case. I'm sure WN will take the few they have on order. I'd bet against any more being ordered. Eventually the MAX 7s will end up like the -500s: confined to short routes and then the first to retire out of the MAX generation.

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