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kitplane01
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:40 am

INFINITI329 wrote:
Southwest is in for a rude awakening once they have to compete head to head with the CS100/300s of their competitors. Neither 73G nor 7M7 will win against them. Southwest's yield on these routes will take a beating. Keep eye on routes involving LAX, ATL, MCO & FLL this is where I believe it will start.


I don't think this is true.

Air Canada has 45 on order, and Delta has 75. Southwest has 750 aircraft. No one else competing against WN has any A220s, and no one has ordered any in a long time. So unless a few hundred more show up for US airlines, Southwest will not have this problem.

You and I both wonder why there are not more A220s being ordered for American carriers (different thread) but they are not.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:00 am

DfwRevolution wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
SWA is going to need a smaller capacity plane eventually.


Why? The “they’ll run out of new markets” fallacy?

Because by having a lower cost per flight plane, "Moxie", JetBlue, and Delta will be more competitive in smaller markets. It is a question of growth rate.

zippy wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
So unless you need the shortfield performance of the -7 MAX, you will be able to get enough added revenue in the -8 MAX to have a higher profit margin during peak seasons (Thanksgiving, Christmas, Spring Break, and Summer).


Doesn't Southwest need the runway performance? Burbank comes to mind obviously, but what about Oakland and Midway where they run a ton of flights? Southwest had to delay a couple flights after the AN-225 left Oakland because the other runways weren't long enough. What happens if, in the aftermath of the latest overrun, runway length requirements get adjusted upwards?

Having a smaller variant available seems like a prudent idea for an airline that doesn't fly exclusively into larger airports. Maybe it'll be an incentive for Southwest to buy into a different aircraft family from whichever manufacturer.

Yes. I keep posting I expect WN to order 200 -7 MAXs.

It won't be runway requirements that are adjusted, it will be maximum tailwind. WN has a fractionally higher tailwind allowance (15 kts vs. 10 kts for other airlines per the Burbank thread). So yes, where the runway performance is required, WN will fly the -7. But other airlines will fly the A220 at a lower cost per passenger. To compete, WN needs the -8 (or -10, I'm not a fan of the -9 as it doesn't cut costs as well as the -10 as the gauge difference between -8 and -10 is small).

So it won't be zero. But Oakland? They have a LONG runway. 10,520 Ft, so short field doesn't apply.

I see the long thin going to the A220. Yes, I know WN won't buy that frame, but the cost per flight is lower which will allow DL, B6, and "Moxie" (yes, they will change their name) to make the runs. I personally am hoping for far more California to Florida flights. :cloudnine:

The fact that IAH, BUR, SNA, and MDW have short runways is interesting and will create demand for short field performance, but not per se the -7 MAX. As I noted, I expect for about 200 737-7 MAXes to be delivered toWN. But why wouldn't CFM and Boeing develop better shortfield performance for the -8 MAX a la A320 SHARP kit? I'm in aerospace R&D, *never* assume your competition stays stagnant. The CMC PIPs to the LEAP engines will shift the 737 gauge upward. That is just the nature of PIPs (they cut costs for larger/heavier models of an aircraft line more than the smaller models compressing the cost per flight difference). With so little demand for the -7 MAX, the lease terms are poor which scares other airlines away. They will demand a short field kit for the -8 MAX. Perhaps we will see standardization of the -10 MAX's landing gear for all -8/-9/-10 MAXes (yes, excluding the -7, there won't be enough sold for a gear recertification payback)? :scratchchin:

I can recall when the 73G was WN's largest aircraft. :old: oh wait, it wasn't that long ago. ;)
Today's fleet:
73G: 511
738: 208
78M: 25
https://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/Sou ... rlines.htm

The trend is definitely toward larger airframes. :scratchchin:
I do not say zero -7 MAXes. But I expect most 73Gs to be replaced by -10 MAXes actually...


Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:06 am

kitplane01 wrote:
Air Canada has 45 on order, and Delta has 75. Southwest has 750 aircraft. No one else competing against WN has any A220s, and no one has ordered any in a long time.

Please let us know who you consider is competing against WN. For whatever reason, I believe the airline a.net loves to hate (DL) is competing against WN and they might have a few A220's on order, and on hand...

EDIT: nevermind, I missed the "else" in "no one else". Meaning, besides AC & DL, no other airline competing with DL has ordered the A220. Long day...
Last edited by WayexTDI on Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
jagraham
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:15 am

lightsaber wrote:

I believe WN needs the -10 MAX. Then again, LAX is close and WN needs to move more people through. The -8 helped, the -10 will be better. :spin:

Lightsaber



This point is big. WN used to avoid airports like LAX like the plague. Too many delays.

But as WN got bigger, they had to go into bigger markets to make a difference. There aren't too many MDW situations, so you see WN growing at LAX, SFO, LGA, EWR, DCA. IAD. With that growth, WN found that they needed planes with more than 137 seats in some places. So we get the 738 followed by the 7M8.

I believe there will be a time that WN flies a 7M9 or 7M10. If they get the 7M10 it will be interesting to see if they go beyond 199 seats.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:26 am

WayexTDI wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
Air Canada has 45 on order, and Delta has 75. Southwest has 750 aircraft. No one else competing against WN has any A220s, and no one has ordered any in a long time.

Please let us know who you consider is competing against WN. For whatever reason, I believe the airline a.net loves to hate (DL) is competing against WN and they might have a few A220's on order, and on hand...

All the airlines compete against each other.
When wasn't America great?


The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:30 am

TWA772LR wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
Air Canada has 45 on order, and Delta has 75. Southwest has 750 aircraft. No one else competing against WN has any A220s, and no one has ordered any in a long time.

Please let us know who you consider is competing against WN. For whatever reason, I believe the airline a.net loves to hate (DL) is competing against WN and they might have a few A220's on order, and on hand...

All the airlines compete against each other.

Yes, I re-read the comment and realized I missed the word "else". My mistake.
 
Swadian
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:44 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
195-E2s? P=zero on that. For an LCC, WN has very well-paid pilots. Pilots won't want a lower pay band. 195-E2s won't offer the needed labor-dollar productivity.


WN is not a LCC.

Newbiepilot wrote:
If anyone needs short field performance in the United States, it is Southwest. They have big operations in BUR, SNA, MDW, HOU, etc. Using exclusively 737-8s on those shorter runways may trash the engines. I could see them wanting performance more than other airlines to avoid weight restrictions.


What if WN takes the short field kit for the 738?

ewt340 wrote:
avier wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Because B737MAX7 would have slightly longer fuselage with an extra 46" longer aft fuselage and an extra 30" longer forward fuselage.
This means that it would add 2 more rows of economy class seats. Southwest current B737-700 carry 143 seats at 31" seat pitch and a pair of lavatory behind the last row of seats. This would mean that B737MAX7 would carry 155 seats at 31" seat pitch and a pair of lavatory instead of 143 seats on B737-700.

155 passengers mean minimum of 4 Flight attendants to operate. Which is the same as the 175 seats on B737-800/MAX8.

So, same amount of pilots and flight attendants for B737MAX7 while carrying 20 less passengers than B737-800/MAX8.

Also, the MAX7 is a bulked up plane that utilize B737MAX8 components, which is not a good combinations for fuel efficiency. From the wing, landing gear, structural re-gauging and strengthening, etc.


If that's the case with the -7Max , I wonder what's the difference in fuel burn between the -8 and -7 ? If it's not that much, I again don't see a business case for the -7 apart from runway capabilities. Again, the -8 may have the short field performance package. And it's just 30 seats more !!
Also, aren't their bigger rivals replacing old MD's with larger 321/737's ? I know they might be reducing frequencies to keep seat count same.
Also doesn't the US air travel market grow YoY. by some % ?Like another user pointed out.
Aren't there slot issues at many major airports?
Pilot shortage?
And lastly , the probable miniscule difference in operating cost between the smaller and bigger variant.


I don't have much info on the fuel burn yet. But looking at other cases like B787-8 and B787-9. Many airlines now prefer to buy B787-9 because of the fuel burn and operating costs. It's similar but the -9 carry more passengers.


Some airlines like AA and JL are still taking 788; the 788 is not as dead as the shorter narrowbodies and is still a great 767 replacement.

flyingclrs727 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
The economics of the -800 are better if you can sell the seats at reasonable yield. There are still large swaths of WN’s network where that is not true.


WN will likely order more 737 MAX 7's beyond the 30 737 MAX 7's already on order since WN still serves many smaller markets in the contiguous U.S. where planes smaller than the 737 MAX 8 are a better fit.


I bet the MAX7's will mostly be used for international destinations to take advantage of its range. By the time the the 700's need large scale replacement for thinner domestic routes, a lighter more economical to operate aircraft will fill its niche. There are lots of WN destinations for which a 143 seat 700 or 149 seat 7MAX are just too big. They have really cut back on frequencies to some of their smaller cities since the 500 left the fleet a couple of years ago.


Not sure WN would use them on international since 738 can probably handle most of it. Probably will see WN cut frequencies to upgauge routes to 738.

tphuang wrote:
There are so many routes they operate where 700 is already too much capacity. They get very little additional revenue on 800 that would be able to overcome the higher purchase cost, the extra fa and operation cost. They need the 700 imo.


The 700 is going to get killed by new E-Jets and A220 anyway; WN is better off going the way of FR and going all-738.
John Wang, Founder and President of Inland Streamliner.
 
tphuang
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:54 am

Look, A220 is not going to magically kill WN yields. WN has not been doing well all these years because of its seat comfort. Schedule, consistency, As much as i love A220, it's not going to break into those really strong WN markets like intra-texas, west coast shuttles and midwest. WN even with MAX7 will still have significant cost advantage over a DL operated A220. At most, they might have more difficulties at places like IND and FLL.
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:05 am

Swadian wrote:

What if WN takes the short field kit for the 738?



I assume from the context, you meant the 737-8 Max. There is no "taking" the short field kit on the 737-8. It's a baseline feature on the 737 Max.

I'm not sure how flying the 737-8 Max out of shorter runway airports would "trash" the engines. Perhaps the other poster is referring to the fact that they would use takeoff thrust derates less. Not sure. Remember that AS flies the 737-800 out of SNA to SEA. AA flies it from SNA to DFW and ORD with no issues. The 737-8 can handle MDW, BUR, and SNA just fine unless you are flying transcontinental routes or Hawaii from there.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:11 am

lightsaber wrote:
To compete, WN needs the -8 (or -10, I'm not a fan of the -9 as it doesn't cut costs as well as the -10 as the gauge difference between -8 and -10 is small).


Assuming similar density to the 8, the 10 would be almost exactly 200 seats. So that makes sense.

The reason I hedge is the possibility of a 9 with the 10 gear. It seems to me like such a thing could be a significantly better field performer than either the existing 9 or the 10, and WN does like its field performance, as shown by its choice to equip its entire 737 fleet with the high-thrust option. And by using a new seating product WN could put 200 seats into a 9 without too much pain.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:17 am

Swadian wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
195-E2s? P=zero on that. For an LCC, WN has very well-paid pilots. Pilots won't want a lower pay band. 195-E2s won't offer the needed labor-dollar productivity.


WN is not a LCC.


JD Power disagrees with you. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-release ... 67053.html

So does Southwest. From the last Annual Report: A key component of the Company’s business strategy is its focus on cost discipline and profitably
charging competitively low fares. Adjusted for stage length, the Company has lower unit costs, on
average, than the majority of major domestic carriers.


So does cost reality. https://www.statista.com/statistics/527 ... y-airline/

You would do well to check facts and preconceptions before posting. It's essential for intelligent argument.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:45 am

WN might order more B37M just to keep the fleet at one aircraft type. But regarding the B737 and B37M, the model only exists because of Southwest Airlines. Otherwise, Boeing wouldn't have even bothered developing the model. I fully expect all other orders to go the MAX 8. Currently, the only orders are WS (23), WN (30), and Canada Jetlines (5). I would not be surprised if Airbus doesn't try to sell WN on the A220-300 as a lower-cost plane, given that I could see WN operating 400+ planes in the 150-seat category when the 737-700s are replaced (remember, some of their frames are older than their newest -300s they had).
 
jagraham
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 4:37 am

We should also keep in mind that WN dribbles its orders after introduction. I read somewhere that the average WN order is 3 planes.
 
INFINITI329
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 5:09 am

kitplane01 wrote:
INFINITI329 wrote:
Southwest is in for a rude awakening once they have to compete head to head with the CS100/300s of their competitors. Neither 73G nor 7M7 will win against them. Southwest's yield on these routes will take a beating. Keep eye on routes involving LAX, ATL, MCO & FLL this is where I believe it will start.


I don't think this is true.

Air Canada has 45 on order, and Delta has 75. Southwest has 750 aircraft. No one else competing against WN has any A220s, and no one has ordered any in a long time. So unless a few hundred more show up for US airlines, Southwest will not have this problem.

You and I both wonder why there are not more A220s being ordered for American carriers (different thread) but they are not.


DL,B6, & Moxie have either orders or lois for A220s. Given the size of DL they I predict they will be taking alot more than 75 airplanes. I believe they are seeing how the A220s do in service before pulling the trigger on more. NK,UA, and AA have all flirted with 100 seater in the past so don't want to count them out. A220s may not be a strong threat right now.. but they will be.

tphuang wrote:
Look, A220 is not going to magically kill WN yields. WN has not been doing well all these years because of its seat comfort. Schedule, consistency, As much as i love A220, it's not going to break into those really strong WN markets like intra-texas, west coast shuttles and midwest. WN even with MAX7 will still have significant cost advantage over a DL operated A220. At most, they might have more difficulties at places like IND and FLL.


I think routes, where WN will compete directly with a A220 their yields, will suffer, Lets say for example the right size plane for a given route is an A220 all WN has are 143 seat 73G to compete and they attempt to match the competitors fare ( due lower cost of operation of an A220
seabosdca wrote:
Assuming similar density to the 8, the 10 would be almost exactly 200 seats. So that makes sense.

seabosdca wrote:
Assuming similar density to the 8, the 10 would be almost exactly 200 seats. So that makes sense.

The reason I hedge is the possibility of a 9 with the 10 gear. It seems to me like such a thing could be a significantly better field performer than either the existing 9 or the 10, and WN does like its field performance, as shown by its choice to equip its entire 737 fleet with the high-thrust option. And by using a new seating product WN could put 200 seats into a 9 without too much pain.


Given WN's layout and comparing to UA and DL 739s seatmap I think WN would be able to accomplish 199 seats on a Max 9 with 3 lavs in the back and maintain their standard pitch. Maybe even 200 if there is space to adjust seats near the overwing exits.

We are on same page as far as the Max 9 getting the Max 10 gear.

Edit: I didn't take into consideration the exit limits of the 739. While physically I believe 199 is possible 197 might be more realistic to accommodate the mid-cabin emergency exit doors that would be required.
 
737MAX7
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 5:53 am

ewt340 wrote:
Because B737MAX7 would have slightly longer fuselage with an extra 46" longer aft fuselage and an extra 30" longer forward fuselage.
This means that it would add 2 more rows of economy class seats. Southwest current B737-700 carry 143 seats at 31" seat pitch and a pair of lavatory behind the last row of seats. This would mean that B737MAX7 would carry 155 seats at 31" seat pitch and a pair of lavatory instead of 143 seats on B737-700.

155 passengers mean minimum of 4 Flight attendants to operate. Which is the same as the 175 seats on B737-800/MAX8.

So, same amount of pilots and flight attendants for B737MAX7 while carrying 20 less passengers than B737-800/MAX8.

Also, the MAX7 is a bulked up plane that utilize B737MAX8 components, which is not a good combinations for fuel efficiency. From the wing, landing gear, structural re-gauging and strengthening, etc.

The MAX7 at WN will be 150 seats thus only needing 3 flight attendants.
 
ewt340
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:36 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Because B737MAX7 would have slightly longer fuselage with an extra 46" longer aft fuselage and an extra 30" longer forward fuselage.
This means that it would add 2 more rows of economy class seats. Southwest current B737-700 carry 143 seats at 31" seat pitch and a pair of lavatory behind the last row of seats. This would mean that B737MAX7 would carry 155 seats at 31" seat pitch and a pair of lavatory instead of 143 seats on B737-700.

155 passengers mean minimum of 4 Flight attendants to operate. Which is the same as the 175 seats on B737-800/MAX8.

On seatguru I found many 737-800's just above the 150 seat limit. With 151-160 seats in a 2 cass cabin. According to you they would be better removing a tiny amount of seats to get it down to 150 seats for 3 flight attendants.

It is worth noting the south west 737-700 fleet operates either 137 or 143 seats with 32" and 31" pitch respectively. The 737-7 fits exactly 149 seats with 32" pitch and 2 lavs.

Southwest has received a huge amount of negative feedback when they went from 137 to 143 seats. The slimline seats have less recline.


Full service airlines Required more FA per plane to get service done, LCC use minimum number of FA to keep the cost down. Please specify LCC with B737-8 with just above the 150 seat limit.
Just to make sure people understand that things work out differently with certain airlines.
 
ewt340
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:38 pm

737MAX7 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Because B737MAX7 would have slightly longer fuselage with an extra 46" longer aft fuselage and an extra 30" longer forward fuselage.
This means that it would add 2 more rows of economy class seats. Southwest current B737-700 carry 143 seats at 31" seat pitch and a pair of lavatory behind the last row of seats. This would mean that B737MAX7 would carry 155 seats at 31" seat pitch and a pair of lavatory instead of 143 seats on B737-700.

155 passengers mean minimum of 4 Flight attendants to operate. Which is the same as the 175 seats on B737-800/MAX8.

So, same amount of pilots and flight attendants for B737MAX7 while carrying 20 less passengers than B737-800/MAX8.

Also, the MAX7 is a bulked up plane that utilize B737MAX8 components, which is not a good combinations for fuel efficiency. From the wing, landing gear, structural re-gauging and strengthening, etc.

The MAX7 at WN will be 150 seats thus only needing 3 flight attendants.


Which mean they are taking a hit of 5 extra seat that they could fitted into the MAX7 cabin without reducing any seat pitch.
 
ewt340
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:43 pm

Swadian wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
195-E2s? P=zero on that. For an LCC, WN has very well-paid pilots. Pilots won't want a lower pay band. 195-E2s won't offer the needed labor-dollar productivity.


WN is not a LCC.

Newbiepilot wrote:
If anyone needs short field performance in the United States, it is Southwest. They have big operations in BUR, SNA, MDW, HOU, etc. Using exclusively 737-8s on those shorter runways may trash the engines. I could see them wanting performance more than other airlines to avoid weight restrictions.


What if WN takes the short field kit for the 738?

ewt340 wrote:
avier wrote:

If that's the case with the -7Max , I wonder what's the difference in fuel burn between the -8 and -7 ? If it's not that much, I again don't see a business case for the -7 apart from runway capabilities. Again, the -8 may have the short field performance package. And it's just 30 seats more !!
Also, aren't their bigger rivals replacing old MD's with larger 321/737's ? I know they might be reducing frequencies to keep seat count same.
Also doesn't the US air travel market grow YoY. by some % ?Like another user pointed out.
Aren't there slot issues at many major airports?
Pilot shortage?
And lastly , the probable miniscule difference in operating cost between the smaller and bigger variant.


I don't have much info on the fuel burn yet. But looking at other cases like B787-8 and B787-9. Many airlines now prefer to buy B787-9 because of the fuel burn and operating costs. It's similar but the -9 carry more passengers.


Some airlines like AA and JL are still taking 788; the 788 is not as dead as the shorter narrowbodies and is still a great 767 replacement.

flyingclrs727 wrote:
jplatts wrote:

WN will likely order more 737 MAX 7's beyond the 30 737 MAX 7's already on order since WN still serves many smaller markets in the contiguous U.S. where planes smaller than the 737 MAX 8 are a better fit.


I bet the MAX7's will mostly be used for international destinations to take advantage of its range. By the time the the 700's need large scale replacement for thinner domestic routes, a lighter more economical to operate aircraft will fill its niche. There are lots of WN destinations for which a 143 seat 700 or 149 seat 7MAX are just too big. They have really cut back on frequencies to some of their smaller cities since the 500 left the fleet a couple of years ago.


Not sure WN would use them on international since 738 can probably handle most of it. Probably will see WN cut frequencies to upgauge routes to 738.

tphuang wrote:
There are so many routes they operate where 700 is already too much capacity. They get very little additional revenue on 800 that would be able to overcome the higher purchase cost, the extra fa and operation cost. They need the 700 imo.


The 700 is going to get killed by new E-Jets and A220 anyway; WN is better off going the way of FR and going all-738.


Some airlines still taking B787-8, no doubt about it, BUT since B787-9 comes around, many airlines prefered it over B787-8. For a real life example. Hawaiian, they are operating A330-200 and planned to operate A330-800neo. But they canceled it and order B787-9 instead. Logically speaking, A330-200/-900neo and B787-8 have extremely similar floor space, seat count, and range capability. But instead they are opted for the larger B787-9 that have similar floor space and seat count as A330-300/900neo.

This happen to other aircraft as well, like what happen to B747-400, B767-300ER, etc.
 
avier
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:14 pm

They have no option really than to stick to the MAX -7 -8 -9 -10 series . It's just a matter of how many of each. And whether if they will keep the bulk on the smallest variant or move up to the bigger ones.

I predict they'll get all the MAX series eventually and use them wherever it fits well, just like bigger network carriers.
 
nagpaw
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:29 pm

lightsaber wrote:
WN has a fractionally higher tailwind allowance (15 kts vs. 10 kts for other airlines per the Burbank thread).
Lightsaber


The only airport for which WN uses the higher 15-knot tailwind limit is SJO. All other airports in the WN system are limited to 10-knots of tailwind.

Not really related to the subject of this thread, but important to note nonetheless. :smile:
 
tphuang
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:48 pm

INFINITI329 wrote:

tphuang wrote:
Look, A220 is not going to magically kill WN yields. WN has not been doing well all these years because of its seat comfort. Schedule, consistency, As much as i love A220, it's not going to break into those really strong WN markets like intra-texas, west coast shuttles and midwest. WN even with MAX7 will still have significant cost advantage over a DL operated A220. At most, they might have more difficulties at places like IND and FLL.


I think routes, where WN will compete directly with a A220 their yields, will suffer, Lets say for example the right size plane for a given route is an A220 all WN has are 143 seat 73G to compete and they attempt to match the competitors fare ( due lower cost of operation of an A220


There is no way DL A220-100 will have lower cost than WN MAX 7. Think about how many different types of aircraft they operate. And even vs B6 A220-300, MAX 7 will be competitive. Remember, WN has extremely low cost for a carrier of its size by using single fleet type, high utilization model. If WN introduces a new type of aircraft, that will simply raise its cost.
 
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keesje
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:25 pm

ewt340 wrote:
737MAX7 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Because B737MAX7 would have slightly longer fuselage with an extra 46" longer aft fuselage and an extra 30" longer forward fuselage.
This means that it would add 2 more rows of economy class seats. Southwest current B737-700 carry 143 seats at 31" seat pitch and a pair of lavatory behind the last row of seats. This would mean that B737MAX7 would carry 155 seats at 31" seat pitch and a pair of lavatory instead of 143 seats on B737-700.

155 passengers mean minimum of 4 Flight attendants to operate. Which is the same as the 175 seats on B737-800/MAX8.

So, same amount of pilots and flight attendants for B737MAX7 while carrying 20 less passengers than B737-800/MAX8.

Also, the MAX7 is a bulked up plane that utilize B737MAX8 components, which is not a good combinations for fuel efficiency. From the wing, landing gear, structural re-gauging and strengthening, etc.

The MAX7 at WN will be 150 seats thus only needing 3 flight attendants.


Which mean they are taking a hit of 5 extra seat that they could fitted into the MAX7 cabin without reducing any seat pitch.


Moving from 142-147 seats to over 150 seats would mean Southwest has to hire thousands of extra crew members. The 737-700 are used on many routes / network frequencies where they have lower load factors (e.g. 110 passengers on average). Just plumping in a 737-8 would create a competitive / cost disadvantage. I think they need a next gen fuel efficient lean 135-149 seater of some sort.

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seahawk
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:28 pm

Trip costs of a 737-8MAX could be lower than a 737-700.
 
737max8
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:54 pm

keesje wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
737MAX7 wrote:
The MAX7 at WN will be 150 seats thus only needing 3 flight attendants.


Which mean they are taking a hit of 5 extra seat that they could fitted into the MAX7 cabin without reducing any seat pitch.


Moving from 142-147 seats to over 150 seats would mean Southwest has to hire thousands of extra crew members. The 737-700 are used on many routes / network frequencies where they have lower load factors (e.g. 110 passengers on average). Just plumping in a 737-8 would create a competitive / cost disadvantage. I think they need a next gen fuel efficient lean 135-149 seater of some sort.

Image
Photo: https://www.tripadvisor.com.au


What? Going from 143 seats to 150 alone has zero impact on crew member hiring needs.

Getting more airplanes does.
The thoughts and opinions expressed in my comments do not represent that of any airline or affiliate.
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ewt340
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:09 pm

737max8 wrote:
keesje wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

Which mean they are taking a hit of 5 extra seat that they could fitted into the MAX7 cabin without reducing any seat pitch.


Moving from 142-147 seats to over 150 seats would mean Southwest has to hire thousands of extra crew members. The 737-700 are used on many routes / network frequencies where they have lower load factors (e.g. 110 passengers on average). Just plumping in a 737-8 would create a competitive / cost disadvantage. I think they need a next gen fuel efficient lean 135-149 seater of some sort.

Image
Photo: https://www.tripadvisor.com.au


What? Going from 143 seats to 150 alone has zero impact on crew member hiring needs.

Getting more airplanes does.


No, what he says is that if Southwest deciding on to replace many B737-700 with B737MAX8, it would mean that they would need to get extra 1 FA for each flight which in return mean that they need to hired more FA since they are operating bigger plane.
 
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:20 pm

tphuang wrote:
INFINITI329 wrote:

tphuang wrote:
Look, A220 is not going to magically kill WN yields. WN has not been doing well all these years because of its seat comfort. Schedule, consistency, As much as i love A220, it's not going to break into those really strong WN markets like intra-texas, west coast shuttles and midwest. WN even with MAX7 will still have significant cost advantage over a DL operated A220. At most, they might have more difficulties at places like IND and FLL.


I think routes, where WN will compete directly with a A220 their yields, will suffer, Lets say for example the right size plane for a given route is an A220 all WN has are 143 seat 73G to compete and they attempt to match the competitors fare ( due lower cost of operation of an A220


There is no way DL A220-100 will have lower cost than WN MAX 7. Think about how many different types of aircraft they operate. And even vs B6 A220-300, MAX 7 will be competitive. Remember, WN has extremely low cost for a carrier of its size by using single fleet type, high utilization model. If WN introduces a new type of aircraft, that will simply raise its cost.


A220-100 is smaller compared to B737-700, and even smaller compared to B737MAX7 (which is stretched version of B737-700), they are more comparable to maybe A318 and B737-600. A220-300 would have similar floor space and capacity with B737-700 and A319 instead.

And yes, since A220-300 is a stretched version and have high percentages of composite materials used on it's fuselage and wings. The fuel burn per passenger miles would be better on A220-300. B737MAX7 on Southwest CONFIG also became problematic since they forgo 5 extra seats on the B737MAX7. 5 seat doesn't sound much but when you want to compare things, this is became important. A220-300 could carry only 135-140 pax with 31" seat pitch and 2 lavatory behind the last row. So 10-15 seat difference but they wouldn't waste an inch of space inside the cabin of A220-300.

Obviously unless Southwest would need to order big chunks of A220 to make the purchase sensible, but the reality is that the chance would be extremely low. But it's the aircraft to use if many airlines want to replace B737-700 or A319.
Last edited by ewt340 on Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:21 pm

If Southwest would decide to buy A220 or E2 jets, there is an easy solution regarding the pilot pool, do not pay differently according to type flown. If the fuel burn advantage or CASM per seat is better for the smaller frame, that should be enough. Otherwise keep to the 737-7.
There are airlines that do not differentiate pilot pools according to aircraft size or type.

Regarding the 737-7 I assume they will limit it to 150 passengers, if 5 passengers do not pay the one extra FA, on average over the year.
 
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:48 pm

ewt340 wrote:
737max8 wrote:
keesje wrote:

Moving from 142-147 seats to over 150 seats would mean Southwest has to hire thousands of extra crew members. The 737-700 are used on many routes / network frequencies where they have lower load factors (e.g. 110 passengers on average). Just plumping in a 737-8 would create a competitive / cost disadvantage. I think they need a next gen fuel efficient lean 135-149 seater of some sort.

Image
Photo: https://www.tripadvisor.com.au


What? Going from 143 seats to 150 alone has zero impact on crew member hiring needs.

Getting more airplanes does.


No, what he says is that if Southwest deciding on to replace many B737-700 with B737MAX8, it would mean that they would need to get extra 1 FA for each flight which in return mean that they need to hired more FA since they are operating bigger plane.


Yes, 737max8 (no doubt accidentally) replaced my "over 150" with "to 150".
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:43 pm

WN will eventually make the decision to Buy more 7377MAX for the retirements of the 737-7NG.
WN likes having the lower one type of aircraft cost. It also likes the advantage of the fleet flexibility to schedule 800/8max an a seasonal market like SJU. Where You can see them shift from the peak of all 800's to a off peak of all 700s.

The cost to introduce a different type of aircraft out weighs the overall advantage.
WN learned from FL that 2 fleet types only hinders the flexibility for schedule recovery in IROP. With the exception of ETOPS in it's future All WN aircraft can fly any of it's city pairings when needed.
Once the 7378MAX takes over ETOPS Hawaii missions the 7378NG Etops birds will give WN the MX flexibility should they need to substitute a NG for a MAX flight.

I wouldn't be surprised 10yrs from now with the short field and extra range the 7377MAX. WN will have the highest rated ETOPS approval giving it them the ability to add limited BWI Western Europe 7377MAX markets.
Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
Elementalism
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:15 pm

amcnd wrote:
SWA needs to think outside the box. 787’s and then they need a regional to fly to the Midwest city’s in a E175. Thats how i would run it. Look up flight aware. Filter by operator. SWA. It’s astonishing how they can see that everyday, and not see the gap they are missing...


If Southwest adds a different aircraft type I'm feeling 797 might be added for any longer haul routes. Like perhaps a DAL\MDW to HNL without a stop on the west coast.
I will be shocked if Southwest diversifies beyond that. They run 737s for commonality and see efficiencies because of that.
 
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:21 pm

ewt340 wrote:
737max8 wrote:
keesje wrote:

Moving from 142-147 seats to over 150 seats would mean Southwest has to hire thousands of extra crew members. The 737-700 are used on many routes / network frequencies where they have lower load factors (e.g. 110 passengers on average). Just plumping in a 737-8 would create a competitive / cost disadvantage. I think they need a next gen fuel efficient lean 135-149 seater of some sort.

Image
Photo: https://www.tripadvisor.com.au


What? Going from 143 seats to 150 alone has zero impact on crew member hiring needs.

Getting more airplanes does.


No, what he says is that if Southwest deciding on to replace many B737-700 with B737MAX8, it would mean that they would need to get extra 1 FA for each flight which in return mean that they need to hired more FA since they are operating bigger plane.

1 extra fa. No additional pilots. By checked bags ground crew... Cheap capacity!.

There fuel burn difference between -7 and -8 MAX is much lower than 72G to 738.

Meh.. we have two opinions. WN just retired 733s. We'll see the 73G go in 2030 to 2040. Let us see how competitive the -7 is then. For now, WN should keep expanding on 7M8s.

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danj555
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:27 pm

I get that SW will never go out of the 737 type, but why not diversify within the type? Like pick up 737-10, and 9... in addition to the 7, 8. There would be no impact to the pilots, or cabin crew. Maybe a small impact to the route planners cause now their job requires.... work... Cant just send the same plane to every destination anymore!!

Certainly some routes are begging for more seats instead of greater frequency.
 
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:52 pm

SEPilot wrote:
WN started with the 737-200, which was largely replaced by the 737-300, which was a step up in size. They did buy a few 737-500s, which were the same size as the -200s, but by and large they went for the larger model. Then, when the NGs came out they resisted the urge to upgrade again, buying the 737-700 almost exclusively until the last few years, when they have started buying -800s. It seems they have decided on another upgrade with the MAX, buying almost all 737-8MAXs and only a few -7s. And maybe they will end up converting those to -8s as well. It is likely that the extra cost of flying the -8s is more than overcome by the extra revenue earned when the planes are full, even when more planes are not full.


WHat is relevant here is their market is changing. I read a couple of years ago in their In flight magazine that since 9/11 the short distance air travel market has shrunk by some 6 million ( could be more not sure of the exact number) passengers. So they have increased longer duration flights/ larger airplanes as the market has shifted. This is the reason for their shift to 737 800 and the 7378 Max.

I think this is an airline that understands realty and acts accordingly. If A220 fits the bill for them in the future , they will go for it

Subu
 
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:58 pm

danj555 wrote:
I get that SW will never go out of the 737 type, but why not diversify within the type? Like pick up 737-10, and 9... in addition to the 7, 8. There would be no impact to the pilots, or cabin crew. Maybe a small impact to the route planners cause now their job requires.... work... Cant just send the same plane to every destination anymore!!

Certainly some routes are begging for more seats instead of greater frequency.


What is the takeoff run of the -9 and -10? Will it get into and out of places like MDW? That is where I think Southwest would run into an issue with that version.
 
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 9:06 pm

lightsaber wrote:
DfwRevolution wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
SWA is going to need a smaller capacity plane eventually.


Why? The “they’ll run out of new markets” fallacy?

Because by having a lower cost per flight plane, "Moxie", JetBlue, and Delta will be more competitive in smaller markets. It is a question of growth rate.

zippy wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
So unless you need the shortfield performance of the -7 MAX, you will be able to get enough added revenue in the -8 MAX to have a higher profit margin during peak seasons (Thanksgiving, Christmas, Spring Break, and Summer).


Doesn't Southwest need the runway performance? Burbank comes to mind obviously, but what about Oakland and Midway where they run a ton of flights? Southwest had to delay a couple flights after the AN-225 left Oakland because the other runways weren't long enough. What happens if, in the aftermath of the latest overrun, runway length requirements get adjusted upwards?

Having a smaller variant available seems like a prudent idea for an airline that doesn't fly exclusively into larger airports. Maybe it'll be an incentive for Southwest to buy into a different aircraft family from whichever manufacturer.

Yes. I keep posting I expect WN to order 200 -7 MAXs.

It won't be runway requirements that are adjusted, it will be maximum tailwind. WN has a fractionally higher tailwind allowance (15 kts vs. 10 kts for other airlines per the Burbank thread). So yes, where the runway performance is required, WN will fly the -7. But other airlines will fly the A220 at a lower cost per passenger. To compete, WN needs the -8 (or -10, I'm not a fan of the -9 as it doesn't cut costs as well as the -10 as the gauge difference between -8 and -10 is small).

So it won't be zero. But Oakland? They have a LONG runway. 10,520 Ft, so short field doesn't apply.

I see the long thin going to the A220. Yes, I know WN won't buy that frame, but the cost per flight is lower which will allow DL, B6, and "Moxie" (yes, they will change their name) to make the runs. I personally am hoping for far more California to Florida flights. :cloudnine:

The fact that IAH, BUR, SNA, and MDW have short runways is interesting and will create demand for short field performance, but not per se the -7 MAX. As I noted, I expect for about 200 737-7 MAXes to be delivered toWN. But why wouldn't CFM and Boeing develop better shortfield performance for the -8 MAX a la A320 SHARP kit? I'm in aerospace R&D, *never* assume your competition stays stagnant. The CMC PIPs to the LEAP engines will shift the 737 gauge upward. That is just the nature of PIPs (they cut costs for larger/heavier models of an aircraft line more than the smaller models compressing the cost per flight difference). With so little demand for the -7 MAX, the lease terms are poor which scares other airlines away. They will demand a short field kit for the -8 MAX. Perhaps we will see standardization of the -10 MAX's landing gear for all -8/-9/-10 MAXes (yes, excluding the -7, there won't be enough sold for a gear recertification payback)? :scratchchin:

I can recall when the 73G was WN's largest aircraft. :old: oh wait, it wasn't that long ago. ;)
Today's fleet:
73G: 511
738: 208
78M: 25
https://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/Sou ... rlines.htm

The trend is definitely toward larger airframes. :scratchchin:
I do not say zero -7 MAXes. But I expect most 73Gs to be replaced by -10 MAXes actually...


Lightsaber



IAH does not have short runways.
Whatever
 
XT6Wagon
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 9:11 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Because by having a lower cost per flight plane, "Moxie", JetBlue, and Delta will be more competitive in smaller markets. It is a question of growth rate.


However, WN tries to arrange flights to smaller stations such that 1/2 are going to that station, and 1/2 are going on to the next major station. Then the 1/2 that gets off is replaced by people flying from the small station to that major station.

So if they do that correctly they get the economics of a 150 seat jet with only needing 75 people going to and from a smaller airport.

Also will the jets smaller than the 737/A320 be produced in enough quantity going forward to compete? 60/month production rates means really cheap per frame fixed costs in an industry with really high fixed costs. So Boeing/Airbus can sell those frames cheap if they wish too. Economic cases for product improvement are also vastly different if you are talking 60 units a year vs 60 a month. So even if the A220 is impossible to beat with a 737-7 or A319NEO today in operating economics, what about the 737-7/A319 of 5 years from now when you get your first frame from an order made today? What price will the Banks make you pay for taking frames with lower resale potential and higher risk?

Nevermind the trend to ignore small markets unless its politically advisable to do so because of state government or US congressman located there.
 
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 9:49 pm

Elementalism wrote:
danj555 wrote:
What is the takeoff run of the -9 and -10? Will it get into and out of places like MDW? That is where I think Southwest would run into an issue with that version.


They can get in and out, but at restricted weights. The 9 ought to be able to cover all destinations out of MDW except perhaps West Coast. From BUR is more of a challenge. Not sure yet how much the 10's revised main gear will counteract its greater length.

This is why it seems to me like a 9 with 200 seats and the 10 main gear might be an attractive product for WN.
 
737max8
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 10:20 pm

keesje wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
737max8 wrote:

What? Going from 143 seats to 150 alone has zero impact on crew member hiring needs.

Getting more airplanes does.


No, what he says is that if Southwest deciding on to replace many B737-700 with B737MAX8, it would mean that they would need to get extra 1 FA for each flight which in return mean that they need to hired more FA since they are operating bigger plane.


Yes, 737max8 (no doubt accidentally) replaced my "over 150" with "to 150".


My bad for definitely misreading that.

I just have seen so many posts all over the board about the seat counts.

737-700 143 3FA
737-800 175 4FA
737-7 150 3FA
737-8 175 4FA

It would be interesting to see what seat count WN would go with on a MAX9 or MAX10. Up to 200 exactly? Or could a MAX10 take like 225 with 31"-32" and make a 5th FA worth it?
The thoughts and opinions expressed in my comments do not represent that of any airline or affiliate.
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 10:50 pm

Assuming no changes to the existing product and pitch, you would get 193 seats in the 9 and most likely 199 (perhaps 205) in the 10. Slimmer products might get one more row in each aircraft. I'm doubtful that 5 FAs will be worth it for WN; if they get 10s, I expect them to have 199 or 200 seats.
 
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:15 pm

737max8 wrote:
keesje wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

No, what he says is that if Southwest deciding on to replace many B737-700 with B737MAX8, it would mean that they would need to get extra 1 FA for each flight which in return mean that they need to hired more FA since they are operating bigger plane.


Yes, 737max8 (no doubt accidentally) replaced my "over 150" with "to 150".


My bad for definitely misreading that.

I just have seen so many posts all over the board about the seat counts.

737-700 143 3FA
737-800 175 4FA
737-7 150 3FA
737-8 175 4FA

It would be interesting to see what seat count WN would go with on a MAX9 or MAX10. Up to 200 exactly? Or could a MAX10 take like 225 with 31"-32" and make a 5th FA worth it?


The 737-10 is a 4.3m stretch over the 737-8. So approximately 4 rows/ 24 seats. That would make it a ~200 seat aircraft in the current Southwest cabin configuration. So that (-10) seems a useful cabin lenght for them with 4 ca's.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Tue Dec 11, 2018 2:48 am

737max8 wrote:
keesje wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

No, what he says is that if Southwest deciding on to replace many B737-700 with B737MAX8, it would mean that they would need to get extra 1 FA for each flight which in return mean that they need to hired more FA since they are operating bigger plane.


Yes, 737max8 (no doubt accidentally) replaced my "over 150" with "to 150".


My bad for definitely misreading that.

I just have seen so many posts all over the board about the seat counts.

737-700 143 3FA
737-800 175 4FA
737-7 150 3FA
737-8 175 4FA

It would be interesting to see what seat count WN would go with on a MAX9 or MAX10. Up to 200 exactly? Or could a MAX10 take like 225 with 31"-32" and make a 5th FA worth it?


I think if Southwest wants to expand capacity above the 737-8, they have sufficient MAX options, either an improved -9 or a -10. The replacement of their huge 737-700 fleet is a bigger question mark.

Recently Southwest shows signs of shying away from the 737-7, like the rest of the industry, Slow MAX -7 sales have been an issue for the past 7 years. When Boeing invests in Embraer, a slightly stretched E195-E2 might narrow the gab between E2's and the 737-8 a bit. If it would be 6t lighter than a 737-7 and the list price is 25% lower, that would be a way sharper competitor to e.g. A220-300.

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:10 am

Elementalism wrote:
amcnd wrote:
SWA needs to think outside the box. 787’s and then they need a regional to fly to the Midwest city’s in a E175. Thats how i would run it. Look up flight aware. Filter by operator. SWA. It’s astonishing how they can see that everyday, and not see the gap they are missing...


If Southwest adds a different aircraft type I'm feeling 797 might be added for any longer haul routes. Like perhaps a DAL\MDW to HNL without a stop on the west coast.
I will be shocked if Southwest diversifies beyond that. They run 737s for commonality and see efficiencies because of that.


What set of routes do you think Southwest flies that need more range than a 737max can offer? The proposed 797 is for transatlantic, and WN has never done that. And even if they started, the 737MAX can do Boston/NYC to London.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:15 am

keesje wrote:
737max8 wrote:
keesje wrote:

Yes, 737max8 (no doubt accidentally) replaced my "over 150" with "to 150".


My bad for definitely misreading that.

I just have seen so many posts all over the board about the seat counts.

737-700 143 3FA
737-800 175 4FA
737-7 150 3FA
737-8 175 4FA

It would be interesting to see what seat count WN would go with on a MAX9 or MAX10. Up to 200 exactly? Or could a MAX10 take like 225 with 31"-32" and make a 5th FA worth it?


I think if Southwest wants to expand capacity above the 737-8, they have sufficient MAX options, either an improved -9 or a -10. The replacement of their huge 737-700 fleet is a bigger question mark.

Recently Southwest shows signs of shying away from the 737-7, like the rest of the industry, Slow MAX -7 sales have been an issue for the past 7 years. When Boeing invests in Embraer, a slightly stretched E195-E2 might narrow the gab between E2's and the 737-8 a bit. If it would be 6t lighter than a 737-7 and the list price is 25% lower, that would be a way sharper competitor to e.g. A220-300.

Image


Are you feeling rather repetitive?

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1410405

Three people feel the same way in your other thread

Newbiepilot wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Pretty sure we should wait and see if the the Embraer partnership even goes through


Exactly. This is putting the cart before the horse.


Absolutely. I don’t see Boeing investing in Embraer for a revised E195 at this point.
 
ewt340
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:20 am

737max8 wrote:
keesje wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

No, what he says is that if Southwest deciding on to replace many B737-700 with B737MAX8, it would mean that they would need to get extra 1 FA for each flight which in return mean that they need to hired more FA since they are operating bigger plane.


Yes, 737max8 (no doubt accidentally) replaced my "over 150" with "to 150".


My bad for definitely misreading that.

I just have seen so many posts all over the board about the seat counts.

737-700 143 3FA
737-800 175 4FA
737-7 150 3FA
737-8 175 4FA

It would be interesting to see what seat count WN would go with on a MAX9 or MAX10. Up to 200 exactly? Or could a MAX10 take like 225 with 31"-32" and make a 5th FA worth it?


Southwest use 32" seat pitch on B737-800 and MAX8, while using 31" seat pitch on B737-700 and maybe MAX7, although the longer fuselage on MAX7 and the fact that they removed 5 seats could mean that the seat pitch on MAX7 could be at 32" seat pitch.

MAX10 is a 66" stretch compared to MAX9. Which mean that around 2 extra rows for MAX10. That would be bring the MAX10 capacity to 202 seats. But 200 seats are more logical.

MAX9 = 188 Seats at 32" pitch OR 194 seats at 31" pitch = 4FA
MAX10 = 200 Seats at 32" pitch OR 206 seats at 31" pitch = 4FA or 5FA.
 
ewt340
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:25 am

keesje wrote:
737max8 wrote:
keesje wrote:

Yes, 737max8 (no doubt accidentally) replaced my "over 150" with "to 150".


My bad for definitely misreading that.

I just have seen so many posts all over the board about the seat counts.

737-700 143 3FA
737-800 175 4FA
737-7 150 3FA
737-8 175 4FA

It would be interesting to see what seat count WN would go with on a MAX9 or MAX10. Up to 200 exactly? Or could a MAX10 take like 225 with 31"-32" and make a 5th FA worth it?


I think if Southwest wants to expand capacity above the 737-8, they have sufficient MAX options, either an improved -9 or a -10. The replacement of their huge 737-700 fleet is a bigger question mark.

Recently Southwest shows signs of shying away from the 737-7, like the rest of the industry, Slow MAX -7 sales have been an issue for the past 7 years. When Boeing invests in Embraer, a slightly stretched E195-E2 might narrow the gab between E2's and the 737-8 a bit. If it would be 6t lighter than a 737-7 and the list price is 25% lower, that would be a way sharper competitor to e.g. A220-300.

Image


The possible E-jet stretch might be a bit too ambitious to be fair. And if Southwest wants add another aircraft type, I think B797 would be more beneficial for them compared to E-jet. They could literally just use B737MAX7 without any extra hassle compared to adding E-jets or A220.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:17 pm

Considering the expected traffic growth the 8MAX becomes the new 700 and the 10MAX the new 800.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Tue Dec 11, 2018 2:28 pm

keesje wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
Three people feel the same way in your other thread


? are you quoting yourself as another person ?

Anyway, Boeing must be looking for solutions. Denial & dismissing holds on only so long, even with Southwest.

The market & Southwest seem to have spoken on (even the revised) 737-7.

SW has many high cycle 737-700's, some 22 yrs old.

65 x 737-700 were delivered 1997-1999. And because of Southwest operation, they are high cycles.

https://leehamnews.com/2018/04/30/southwest-accelerates-737-700-retirements/

Image


You’ve got multiple 737-7 bashing threads going on at once. The Southwest story is fairly easy to follow since they have been quite transparent. You may not appreciate that Gary Kelly said this:

Kelly, responding to a question from LNC, said he expects that perhaps 60% of the fleet will eventually be the MAX 7. Southwest currently has more than 500 737-700s.

No such customer has said the same about the A319, but apparently Delta and JetBlue are getting incredible deals on the A220 as Bombardier tries to get market share

The carrier [JetBlue] probably paid US$1.4 billion to US$1.7 billion for 60 Airbus A220-300 jets, or between US$23 million and US$28 million per plane, Moody’s analyst Jonathan Root said in a report Friday, citing estimates by appraisers and price breaks that are typical for large orders. That’s a discount of as much as 72 per cent from the deal’s list value, he said.

https://business.financialpost.com/tran ... der-moodys

Airbus is going after market share with the A220

Airbus hopes to reach “triple-digit” sales numbers by the end of 2018, sales chief David Dufrenois said Tuesday in Toulouse. Long-term, the plane maker hopes to attain at least 50% of the commercial market for 100-150 seat aircraft over the next 20 years by selling more than 3,000 planes.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/jetblue-d ... 220-order/

The 737-7 or Embraer E2 doesn’t appear to have the same sales strategy. Boeing will not get to 15% profit margins if they follow the pricing strategy that Bombardier is using to get market share

CEO Dennis Muilenburg believes Boeing is on track to hit a target of 15% BCA margin by the end of the decade.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/10/ ... ng-st.aspx

The 737-7 likely has the lowest margin of any of the 737s since airlines pay more for capability. I don’t see the sales teams at Boeing having much interest selling production slots for the margins that the 737-7 will earn. Bombardier on the other hand has no choice. I don’t expect many 737-7 orders other than Southwest for the reasons that Gary Kelly has explained.

In other words, I don’t see denial or dismissing coming from anyone but you.
Last edited by Newbiepilot on Tue Dec 11, 2018 2:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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keesje
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Tue Dec 11, 2018 2:41 pm

seahawk wrote:
Considering the expected traffic growth the 8MAX becomes the new 700 and the 10MAX the new 800.


then they need to hire 25% more cabin attendants for the 500 737-700 replacements.

2000(?) extra jobs for the same number of aircraft & flights, great for employment !

:thumbsup:
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Tue Dec 11, 2018 2:50 pm

WN is not going to take A220 or E2 because a great percentage of WN Revenue is its lucrative Cargo contracts. Both the A220 and E2 have very little if not almost Zero room in the belly for anything other than Baggage.

WN 700NG retirements start next year and ramp up after 2020.
Once Hawaii gets started and then the first MAX7 gets on property WN will most likely put down a larger mixed order in 2020 for both the MAX7 and more MAX8s.

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:05 pm

The fleet you have today has no meaning for the fleet you need in the future. If the 737-700 is your current workhorse and you can fill it to 90% in 2018, even with a very conservative traffic growth of 1,5% annually, you will need something bigger in 2028 with about 169 seats - which is a 737-8MAX.

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