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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:24 pm

WN over the last 40(?) years expanded, but more recently started serving more and larger cities and airports, the legs may have grown longer, and the number of passengers per plane has been up up up. And from my limited experience the number of empty seats is down and down. A big piece of their business plan long ago was being cheaper and nice enough to take the family on trips of a certain size and leave the car behind.

WN has had to for a variety of reasons leave the old business plan behind, but that is leaving an empty space of places they are no longer or cannot afford to serve. So the question is, does WN have a plan for cities and towns for whom the MAX is not longer profitable to serve. Perhaps not. And how long will WN avoid using the possible 797 on those largest markets.

A day dream: WN, JetBlue, and Alaska support a regional airline that connects those smaller markets to the rest of the world.
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bob75013
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:40 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
And how long will WN avoid using the possible 797 on those largest markets.

.


By george, I think he's got it.

I also think Southwest is more likely to go with the 797 than an aircraft smaller than the 700 or max7 - more range to connect to more large cities in S. America and Europe, more ability to fly from the midwest to Hawaii. Put folding wing tips on it so Southwest can use existing narrow body gates and you have a winner.

It'll be a while though before Southwest adds any new type.
 
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keesje
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:57 pm

So the general consensus is Southwest will stay with Boeing what ever they or someone else offers, because that has always been the case?

What happened between Southwest & Boeing on the 737-7 is IMO a sign Southwest is carefully weighing it's options & predictability has lowered.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
parapente
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:38 pm

Whilst not impossible it's v highly unlikely imho.Southwest wrote the book on 'commonality of aircaft' followed so successfully by others such as Ryanair EasyJet and others.It has served them all well,and if it's not broke why change? Should EasyJet order the max 200 rather than the 'too small' A320? Of course not.The economics of commonality is far greater.Nothing to see here.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:38 pm

keesje wrote:

The market & Southwest seem to have spoken on (even the revised) 737-7.

SW has many high cycle 737-700's, some 22 yrs old.

65 x 737-700 were delivered 1997-1999. And because of Southwest operation, they are high cycles.

Kelly said there would be hundreds of 737-7 ordered & nothing else will come in under his watch. Now he will retire very soon & Southwest has actively stopped taking any 737-7 pushing out the order 5 years. So what do believe will happen? Do we take Boeing for their word & quickly re-align if they change their mind, again?

Something is happening, also if one refuses to see. The 737-7 & 737-9 were also just right for years, before they re-specified it. I expect Boeing to respond adequately if the need arises. Sometimes they need to be a bit more decisive.

Great logic. I hope you apply it consistently.

The market seems to have spoken on the A380.

EK has many gently used A380s coming off lease in the next few years that will be dropped into a soft VLA market.

STC said there would be 50 more A380s ordered but after Airbus couldn't come up with a NEO and RR stiffed him on performance/durability it's now 20+16. Now he will retire very soon & EK can't come to an engine agreement with RR. So what do believe will happen? Do we take Airbus for their word & quickly re-align if they change their mind, again?

Something is happening, also if one refuses to see. The A380 was a good fit for years, before load factors dropped and 777W got first class and 777X got ordered. I expected Airbus to respond adequately but they couldn't even close the business case for A380+. Sometimes they need to be a bit more decisive.
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737max8
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:42 am

seahawk wrote:
Considering the expected traffic growth the 8MAX becomes the new 700 and the 10MAX the new 800.


This makes some sense but some routes are just to thin for a MAX8. Intra Texas/Cali all day etc.

Now that I look at the numbers this makes a lot of sense and hope we see the MAX10 at WN sometime!

737-7 150 seats (thinner profitable routes, long distances, short fields)
787-8 175 seats (core fleet)
787-10 200 seats (top markets, things like BWI, LAX, LAS, MCO, etc).
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rbavfan
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Wed Dec 12, 2018 3:19 am

wnflyguy wrote:
WN is not going to take A220 or E2 because a great percentage of WN Revenue is its lucrative Cargo contracts. Both the A220 and E2 have very little if not almost Zero room in the belly for anything other than Baggage.

WN 700NG retirements start next year and ramp up after 2020.
Once Hawaii gets started and then the first MAX7 gets on property WN will most likely put down a larger mixed order in 2020 for both the MAX7 and more MAX8s.

Flyguy


The A220-100 has 838 cu. ft. with 140 pass @ 32" 6.98 cu. ft./pass seat.
The A220-300 has 1116 cu. ft. with 140 pass @ 32" 7.97 cu. ft./pass seat.
The 737-700 has 966 cu. ft cargo with 140 pass @ 32" 6.9 cu. ft./pass seat.
the 737-7 Max has 1146 cu. ft with 152 pass @ 32" 7.53 cu. ft./pass seat.
-Based on space for 2 more rows of seats at 32" in 737-700.

So how does the A220 not have space for cargo?

Check your specs before you post. A220-100 has more cargo space per passenger than the 737-700.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:38 pm

Please do not turn this topic into Airbus vs Boeing. The thread will be locked if it continues.

✈️ atcsundevil
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:43 pm

keesje wrote:
So the general consensus is Southwest will stay with Boeing what ever they or someone else offers, because that has always been the case?

What happened between Southwest & Boeing on the 737-7 is IMO a sign Southwest is carefully weighing it's options & predictability has lowered.


I think your opinion is wrong. Southwest is going to continue to do what they have been doing, upgauging with new built -800/-8s for the time being. Later down the road they will probably take some -7s for routes that can't handle the -8. Fairly simple. On the large end, if they want something bigger they will look at the -10. If they can’t add more frequency, they will look into 737-10s. All of this has been discussed by Gary Kelly.

The Southwest story is fairly easy to follow since they have been quite transparent. Gary Kelly said this:

Kelly, responding to a question from LNC, said he expects that perhaps 60% of the fleet will eventually be the MAX 7. Southwest currently has more than 500 737-700s.

What is not clear about it, or in your opinion do you think Southwest executives are lying to us?
Last edited by Newbiepilot on Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:46 pm

keesje wrote:
So the general consensus is Southwest will stay with Boeing what ever they or someone else offers, because that has always been the case?

What happened between Southwest & Boeing on the 737-7 is IMO a sign Southwest is carefully weighing it's options & predictability has lowered.


I wish when you started a thread you’d say what you think instead of posing a half-question then getting upset with the answers.

You seem convinced that WN is “weighing its options” but WN has never said they aren’t interested in the MAX 7 (they start taking delivery of the frame in 2019) but they have shown multiple times that they would rather eat glass than have separate pilot pools and mixed fleets.

Is it possible they’ll go a different direction? Of course. Many of us have desired to see that happen at some point. That doesn’t mean we agree it will happen.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Wed Dec 12, 2018 3:01 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
keesje wrote:
So the general consensus is Southwest will stay with Boeing what ever they or someone else offers, because that has always been the case?

What happened between Southwest & Boeing on the 737-7 is IMO a sign Southwest is carefully weighing it's options & predictability has lowered.


I wish when you started a thread you’d say what you think instead of posing a half-question then getting upset with the answers.

You seem convinced that WN is “weighing its options” but WN has never said they aren’t interested in the MAX 7 (they start taking delivery of the frame in 2019) but they have shown multiple times that they would rather eat glass than have separate pilot pools and mixed fleets.

Is it possible they’ll go a different direction? Of course. Many of us have desired to see that happen at some point. That doesn’t mean we agree it will happen.


I agree. Southwest will react to the market. Right now the US economy is strong, so Southwest is adding capacity by upgauging flights. In a recession, domestic capacity needs may fall. Southwest can shift to more 737-7s to reduce the overall average capacity of the fleet. Airlines adjust to market demand by which planes they add and subtract to the fleet.

I hope that is what Keesje means by carefully weighing options. BA made the mistake of overreacting to the market when they were trying to prop yields up by reducing capacity and has far too many A319s from 15 years ago. I don’t see Southwest doing the same, but the market can clearly show why Southwest wants more bigger planes now. If we head into a recession with 10% unemployment, we can expect to see smaller planes ordered and deferrals to reduce the size of the fleet.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Wed Dec 12, 2018 3:56 pm

An airline the size of Southwest would need to predict an economic downturn of historic proportion, if they believe that the traffic growth would not fill 30 seats in 20 years.

You just need 1% annual growth over 20 years to fill the 787-MAX, the prediction however is over 3%. If the prediction is correct and the 3% annual growth are achieved, you would need 262 seats in 20 years on flight that fills a 737-700 today.

So the whole starting point of SW having to replace the 737-700 seat with another plane below 150 seats if wrong.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Wed Dec 12, 2018 4:04 pm

seahawk wrote:
An airline the size of Southwest would need to predict an economic downturn of historic proportion, if they believe that the traffic growth would not fill 30 seats in 20 years.

You just need 1% annual growth over 20 years to fill the 787-MAX, the prediction however is over 3%. If the prediction is correct and the 3% annual growth are achieved, you would need 262 seats in 20 years on flight that fills a 737-700 today.

So the whole starting point of SW having to replace the 737-700 seat with another plane below 150 seats if wrong.


The premise by some is that WN needs a sub-150 seater to allow them to grow into smaller markets. It would seem that your anslysis would actually support the 150-seat MAX 7 as a viable alternative for that role.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Wed Dec 12, 2018 4:12 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
The premise by some is that WN needs a sub-150 seater to allow them to grow into smaller markets.


Those who advocate that premise ought to be challenged rigorously. What's the evidence that Southwest is jonesing to go into significantly smaller markets? WN seems quite happy - and certainly profitable - with fewer than a 3rd of the destinations of AA, DL or UA. WN gets high productivity from commonality and avoiding small aircraft.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Wed Dec 12, 2018 4:18 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
The premise by some is that WN needs a sub-150 seater to allow them to grow into smaller markets.


Those who advocate that premise ought to be challenged rigorously. What's the evidence that Southwest is jonesing to go into significantly smaller markets? WN seems quite happy - and certainly profitable - with fewer than a 3rd of the destinations of AA, DL or UA. WN gets high productivity from commonality and avoiding small aircraft.


Feel free to take up the challenge. FWIW, I don’t think I implied “significantly smaller” and I’d argue that WN has never had the highest load factors and could probably make better use out of a MAX 7 than most.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Wed Dec 12, 2018 4:22 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
seahawk wrote:
An airline the size of Southwest would need to predict an economic downturn of historic proportion, if they believe that the traffic growth would not fill 30 seats in 20 years.

You just need 1% annual growth over 20 years to fill the 787-MAX, the prediction however is over 3%. If the prediction is correct and the 3% annual growth are achieved, you would need 262 seats in 20 years on flight that fills a 737-700 today.

So the whole starting point of SW having to replace the 737-700 seat with another plane below 150 seats if wrong.


The premise by some is that WN needs a sub-150 seater to allow them to grow into smaller markets. It would seem that your anslysis would actually support the 150-seat MAX 7 as a viable alternative for that role.


Sure.

At 1% annual growth: What currently could fill 120 seats will need 146 seats in 20 years.
At 3% annual growth: What currently could fill 80 seats will need 145 seats in 20 years.

So a limited market of routes, in most cases currently not served by SW, could be opened with the 7MAX, but it is reasonable to believe that all routes currently served by the 700 can be served by a 8MAX in 10-20 years.
 
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Wed Dec 12, 2018 4:51 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
seahawk wrote:
An airline the size of Southwest would need to predict an economic downturn of historic proportion, if they believe that the traffic growth would not fill 30 seats in 20 years.

You just need 1% annual growth over 20 years to fill the 787-MAX, the prediction however is over 3%. If the prediction is correct and the 3% annual growth are achieved, you would need 262 seats in 20 years on flight that fills a 737-700 today.

So the whole starting point of SW having to replace the 737-700 seat with another plane below 150 seats is wrong.

The premise by some is that WN needs a sub-150 seater to allow them to grow into smaller markets. It would seem that your anslysis would actually support the 150-seat MAX 7 as a viable alternative for that role.

It's strange that people ignore the fact that WN acquired a fleet of sub-150 seat aircraft, complete with trained crews and all other required infrastructure, and not too long thereafter was so desperate to get rid of that fleet that they offered the deal of a lifetime to what some view as a major competitor. I'm talking about the 717 fleet they got via AirTran and gifted to DL.

People also seem to be presuming the only way to grow is bigger aircraft, rather than a nice pool of interchangeable larger and smaller aircraft, adding size to some markets and frequency to others.
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PlanesNTrains
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:14 pm

Revelation wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
seahawk wrote:
An airline the size of Southwest would need to predict an economic downturn of historic proportion, if they believe that the traffic growth would not fill 30 seats in 20 years.

You just need 1% annual growth over 20 years to fill the 787-MAX, the prediction however is over 3%. If the prediction is correct and the 3% annual growth are achieved, you would need 262 seats in 20 years on flight that fills a 737-700 today.

So the whole starting point of SW having to replace the 737-700 seat with another plane below 150 seats is wrong.

The premise by some is that WN needs a sub-150 seater to allow them to grow into smaller markets. It would seem that your anslysis would actually support the 150-seat MAX 7 as a viable alternative for that role.

It's strange that people ignore the fact that WN acquired a fleet of sub-150 seat aircraft, complete with trained crews and all other required infrastructure, and not too long thereafter was so desperate to get rid of that fleet that they offered the deal of a lifetime to what some view as a major competitor. I'm talking about the 717 fleet they got via AirTran and gifted to DL.

People also seem to be presuming the only way to grow is bigger aircraft, rather than a nice pool of interchangeable larger and smaller aircraft, adding size to some markets and frequency to others.


Well and one other thing that may not matter with a subfleet of 20 aircraft but might with a “subfleet” of 200 is that 4th FA. Not just the one onboard but rather the entire need of 4th FA’s to cover that many aircraft. Maybe it’s not that big of an amount but I’d imagine hiring, training, and paying benefits for an additional 500-600 FA’s adds up if not needed.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
SPREE34
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:11 pm

rbavfan wrote:
The A220-100 has 838 cu. ft. with 140 pass @ 32" 6.98 cu. ft./pass seat.
The A220-300 has 1116 cu. ft. with 140 pass @ 32" 7.97 cu. ft./pass seat.
The 737-700 has 966 cu. ft cargo with 140 pass @ 32" 6.9 cu. ft./pass seat.
the 737-7 Max has 1146 cu. ft with 152 pass @ 32" 7.53 cu. ft./pass seat.
-Based on space for 2 more rows of seats at 32" in 737-700.

So how does the A220 not have space for cargo?

Check your specs before you post. A220-100 has more cargo space per passenger than the 737-700.


Are those figures above floor, below, or empty tube?
I don't understand everything I don't know about this.
 
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barney captain
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:31 am

737max8 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Considering the expected traffic growth the 8MAX becomes the new 700 and the 10MAX the new 800.


This makes some sense but some routes are just to thin for a MAX8. Intra Texas/Cali all day etc.

Now that I look at the numbers this makes a lot of sense and hope we see the MAX10 at WN sometime!

737-7 150 seats (thinner profitable routes, long distances, short fields)
787-8 175 seats (core fleet)
787-10 200 seats (top markets, things like BWI, LAX, LAS, MCO, etc).


This, I strongly suspect, is the most likely scenario.
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barney captain
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:23 am

It's amazing how easily misinterpreted those 8's are for 3's. :)

I didn't catch it until the third or fourth read..........

But yes, the idea is still correct.
Southeast Of Disorder
 
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keesje
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:26 am

Back to reality;

:arrow: Boeing has orders for 30 737-7 from Southwest, 23 from Westjet, 5 from Jetlines and 3 from Turkmenistan. That's it.
:arrow: Southwest has 500 737-700s. Hundreds are not young at all, deliveries from 1997. Aging aircraft issues.
:arrow: Southwest accelerates 737-700 retirements.
:arrow: Southwest deferred 23 of their (30) 737-7 order past 2023.
:arrow: Southwest's success / network is build mostly around 3 ca 737's and frequencies.
:arrow: Neeleman is at it.

Southwest is bypassing 737-7's, while they need replacements in this huge segment.
Lots of them & not from 2030.
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seahawk
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:30 am

If they need it, they will order it. As they do not, maybe they do not see a need for it.
 
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keesje
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:22 am

seahawk wrote:
If they need it, they will order it. As they do not, maybe they do not see a need for it.


Yes and something else may be cooking.

Will Boeing have a plan-B for when the Southwest 737-7 doesn't improve?

Southwest wants to buy more 737's, unless they are the only ones and it's a bad idea.

https://blog.wandr.me/2018/01/boeings-737-max-7-southwest/
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seahawk
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:41 am

The only thing I see in the link is that they defer the small version and buy more of the larger version. Something every (similar) airline around the globe does and something that is a driving force behind the success of the A321NEO. So imho the plan B is more 8MAX.
 
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:05 pm

keesje wrote:
Will Boeing have a plan-B for when the Southwest 737-7 doesn't improve?

It's not clear Boeing needs a Plan B, just like it's not clear Airbus needs a Plan B for A319.

They've already made the decision to produce the models, knowing all along the market for the bigger frames is bigger.

WN is saying they're taking -8 now because that's where their biggest need is, not because -7 needs to improve more.

It already is a big improvement over the -700: more efficient engines, more seats, fits a certain part of their route network while still providing fleet commonality.

They tried a big fleet of <150 seat aircraft when they acquired AirTran and not too long after paid DL to take it off their hands.

keesje wrote:
Back to reality;

That's just your carefully chosen cross section of reality.

In other people's views we find:

737max8 wrote:
Now that I look at the numbers this makes a lot of sense and hope we see the MAX10 at WN sometime!

737-7 150 seats (thinner profitable routes, long distances, short fields)
787-8 175 seats (core fleet)
787-10 200 seats (top markets, things like BWI, LAX, LAS, MCO, etc).

And I think that's far more likely than replacing 700s with even smaller aircraft that are incompatible with the massive 737 fleet.
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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MIflyer12
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:22 pm

The OP expresses the common a.net fascination - one could say pathology - that aircraft of XXX seat count need to be replaced with the same seat count. It denies regularly observed reality. Lots of carriers have replaced 744s with something considerably larger (or smaller). Delta has 739/321/321Neos on order to replace 157-seat A320s, 149-seat MD-88s, and 158-seat MD-90s over the next four years. It's got 35 ~290 seat count A339s on order to replace ~226 seat count 767-300s. Planespotters.net suggests that WN has about 250 -700s less than 13 years old. Suggesting there's an urgency to replace those , or that the network needs 500+ planes of 143-seat count even as it continues to grow, is just demented.
 
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:23 pm

Revelation wrote:
keesje wrote:
Will Boeing have a plan-B for when the Southwest 737-7 doesn't improve?

It's not clear Boeing needs a Plan B, just like it's not clear Airbus needs a Plan B for A319.

They've already made the decision to produce the models, knowing all along the market for the bigger frames is bigger.

WN is saying they're taking -8 now because that's where their biggest need is, not because -7 needs to improve more.

It already is a big improvement over the -700: more efficient engines, more seats, fits a certain part of their route network while still providing fleet commonality.

They tried a big fleet of <150 seat aircraft when they acquired AirTran and not too long after paid DL to take it off their hands.

keesje wrote:
Back to reality;

That's just your carefully chosen cross section of reality.

In other people's views we find:

737max8 wrote:
Now that I look at the numbers this makes a lot of sense and hope we see the MAX10 at WN sometime!

737-7 150 seats (thinner profitable routes, long distances, short fields)
787-8 175 seats (core fleet)
787-10 200 seats (top markets, things like BWI, LAX, LAS, MCO, etc).

And I think that's far more likely than replacing 700s with even smaller aircraft that are incompatible with the massive 737 fleet.


I think you do not mean the 787-8 and 787-10, but rather the 737-8 and 737-10.
 
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DL717
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:22 pm

keesje wrote:
Southwest still has 500 737-700s to replace & deferred their small 737-7 order to after 2024.

737-7 rejected by market
Legacy Boeing, faced with the prospect of launching the New Midmarket Aircraft next year with a target-EIS of 2025, faces replacing the 737 after the NMA.

The 737-7 has been rejected by the market, with fewer than 70 sold since the MAX program was launched in 2011.

........https://leehamnews.com/2018/12/06/boeing-deal-crucial-to-embraer-survival-in-doubt/

Image
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-02/southwest-moves-up-40-max-737-8-orders-delays-23-max-7-planes

SW has been converting -7 orders to -8 and buying used -700s. For the <150 seat segment the E195-E2, E220-300 and a 737-7 come-back seem possible candidates. I think the -7 was stretched late in the process, specially for launching customer SW.

In April 30 yrs SW veteran Kelly said they might get many -7s , but SW is doing the opposite. The -7 now is a kind of orphan fleet with Southwest and no one is ordering any.


Southwest is not going to add another aircraft type. The end.
Funny. It only took one pandemic for those who argue endlessly about natural selection to stop believing in natural selection.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:30 pm

DL717 wrote:
Southwest is not going to add another aircraft type. The end.

Yeah, but the post has a picture of guys loading bags into a WN 737 so it must be significant.
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keesje
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:33 pm

DL717 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Southwest still has 500 737-700s to replace & deferred their small 737-7 order to after 2024.

737-7 rejected by market
Legacy Boeing, faced with the prospect of launching the New Midmarket Aircraft next year with a target-EIS of 2025, faces replacing the 737 after the NMA.

The 737-7 has been rejected by the market, with fewer than 70 sold since the MAX program was launched in 2011.

........https://leehamnews.com/2018/12/06/boeing-deal-crucial-to-embraer-survival-in-doubt/

Image
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-02/southwest-moves-up-40-max-737-8-orders-delays-23-max-7-planes

SW has been converting -7 orders to -8 and buying used -700s. For the <150 seat segment the E195-E2, E220-300 and a 737-7 come-back seem possible candidates. I think the -7 was stretched late in the process, specially for launching customer SW.

In April 30 yrs SW veteran Kelly said they might get many -7s , but SW is doing the opposite. The -7 now is a kind of orphan fleet with Southwest and no one is ordering any.


Southwest is not going to add another aircraft type. The end.


Correct they are even removing one: the 737-7MAX. And now, up for the 737-700 replacement.
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DL717
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:40 pm

keesje wrote:
DL717 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Southwest still has 500 737-700s to replace & deferred their small 737-7 order to after 2024.


........https://leehamnews.com/2018/12/06/boeing-deal-crucial-to-embraer-survival-in-doubt/

Image
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-02/southwest-moves-up-40-max-737-8-orders-delays-23-max-7-planes

SW has been converting -7 orders to -8 and buying used -700s. For the <150 seat segment the E195-E2, E220-300 and a 737-7 come-back seem possible candidates. I think the -7 was stretched late in the process, specially for launching customer SW.

In April 30 yrs SW veteran Kelly said they might get many -7s , but SW is doing the opposite. The -7 now is a kind of orphan fleet with Southwest and no one is ordering any.


Southwest is not going to add another aircraft type. The end.


Correct they are even removing one: the 737-7MAX. And now, up for the 737-700 replacement.


And this is your answer. 60% of the fleet will be B37M:

https://leehamnews.com/2018/03/01/south ... ing-737-7/

Or whatever follows the 737 program given the number they actually need over time and the likelihood of a 737 replacement within that time.
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:57 pm

keesje wrote:
DL717 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Southwest still has 500 737-700s to replace & deferred their small 737-7 order to after 2024.


........https://leehamnews.com/2018/12/06/boeing-deal-crucial-to-embraer-survival-in-doubt/

Image
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-02/southwest-moves-up-40-max-737-8-orders-delays-23-max-7-planes

SW has been converting -7 orders to -8 and buying used -700s. For the <150 seat segment the E195-E2, E220-300 and a 737-7 come-back seem possible candidates. I think the -7 was stretched late in the process, specially for launching customer SW.

In April 30 yrs SW veteran Kelly said they might get many -7s , but SW is doing the opposite. The -7 now is a kind of orphan fleet with Southwest and no one is ordering any.


Southwest is not going to add another aircraft type. The end.


Correct they are even removing one: the 737-7MAX. And now, up for the 737-700 replacement.

Yes, of course, except for the 7MAX deliveries scheduled for next year. If you simply ignore key facts, your point becomes much easier to make. Keesje, you used to be a rational and thoughtful member of this site, where you were even missed during your self-imposed exile. How did you go so far off the deep end?
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FriscoHeavy
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 2:23 pm

At the end of the day, WN will end up with many 737-7MAX planes. Will it be 60%? Who knows, but even if it turns out to be 30-40% of their fleet, it's still a fairly substantial number. The -7MAX will be in their fleet and make them a lot of money over the next 2-3 decades.
Whatever
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 2:37 pm

keesje wrote:
Spacepope wrote:
keesje wrote:

Correct they are even removing one: the 737-7MAX. And now, up for the 737-700 replacement.

Yes, of course, except for the 7MAX deliveries scheduled for next year. If you simply ignore key facts, your point becomes much easier to make. Keesje, you used to be a rational and thoughtful member of this site, where you were even missed during your self-imposed exile. How did you go so far off the deep end?


The 6 already in production. The rest, 24. "after 2023"

Image


And the CEO spoke



We know right now southwest is upgauging

The workhorse of the airline’s fleet is the current-generation, 143-seat 737-700, of which 508 are in service. Southwest’s new preference for the 175-seat Max 8 over the 150-seat Max 7 indicates that its fleet is evolving on two fronts – not only by lifting fuel-efficiency with the latest aircraft technology, but also by up-gauging metal to reduce average seat costs.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/martinrive ... eb66b78000

That trend may not always continue

Kelly, responding to a question from LNC, said he expects that perhaps 60% of the fleet will eventually be the MAX 7. Southwest currently has more than 500 737-700s....

Kelly has no interest in the Boeing 737-9 and might in the 737-10, if there are certain routes that need more capacity and it’s not possible to add more flights.
 
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keesje
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 3:05 pm

Kelly just doesn't walk the talk.

In unrelated news, #2 customer (23 on order) Westjet deferred their 737-7 order a few years..
https://airlinerwatch.com/westjet-delays-the-delivery-of-its-first-boeing-737-max-7/

It will be a great machine for many airlines, Boeing says so too. Being 6t heavier than it's competitor doesn't say anything. Southwest will love it afterall & buy hundreds.

The MAX 7 will provide airlines an efficient product for opening and flying thinner markets and accessing challenging airports, while enjoying all the benefits of being part of the 737 MAX family," said Randy Tinseth, vice president of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes.


:faint:
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PlanesNTrains
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 3:17 pm

I think we’re supposed to say “WN needs the superior Airbus A220” - that would allow the thread to come to a conclusion. Until then, “some choose to ignore” and “Meanwhile, Airbus does not need to ‘continually study the market’” comments will continue.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
jagraham
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 3:30 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
avier wrote:
Because they realised the economics of the 737-8 /800 series is way better then the mini -7 /700 model. But they can't openly admit that, because they are the largest operator of the 737-700. Easyjet was in a similar dilemma when they got the A320, and had a eureka moment like " oh heck , why didn't we get this before.

And now Easyjet went for something still bigger and better , the A321neo


The economics of the -800 are better if you can sell the seats at reasonable yield. There are still large swaths of WN’s network where that is not true.

I agree with others. You are not looking at differential cost to fly.

The -8 MAX costs very little more than the -7 MAX to fly. So unless you need the shortfield performance of the -7 MAX, you will be able to get enough added revenue in the -8 MAX to have a higher profit margin during peak seasons (Thanksgiving, Christmas, Spring Break, and Summer). The number of small markets that pay a premium is declining with the ULCC airline growth. WN must adopt their model for the new competition as others have already alluded to.

I happen to agree with others that WN must follow U2 to the larger gauge (-10 MAX, in this case) to bring down unit costs. Failure to do so will create an issue after the LEAP CMC PIP. Please recall the GE9x is the first engine with CMC turbine components (fixed parts), then we'll see the 2nd stage turbine blades (the rotating blades) and later (much later?) the 1st stage turbine blades. Each of these improvements will have more economic advantage to larger aircraft than smaller. That is just the nature of PIPs.

Lightsaber



The 800 / MAX8 size planes require an extra flight attendant. Which is what will keep the MAX7 viable.

As far as smaller cities that WN does not now serve, it's a quandry. Putting even 150 seats into a metro area of less than 100000 is problematic. We see what the majors do with and to their regional subs / affiliates / contractors. And how those regionals have problems with staffing. If there was a clear cut service proposition that was working for the majors, I would say WN would have to adapt. But as it is, perhaps WN is better off avoiding the issue.
 
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 3:34 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
I think we’re supposed to say “WN needs the superior Airbus A220” - that would allow the thread to come to a conclusion. Until then, “some choose to ignore” and “Meanwhile, Airbus does not need to ‘continually study the market’” comments will continue.

Seems some people need validation to a ridiculous degree, and can't just accept that other people have other opinions.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 3:43 pm

DL717 wrote:
Southwest is not going to add another aircraft type. The end.

So, in your opinion, WN is doomed?

Boeing will, one day, stop production of the 737. I don't know when, but they will one day.
So, at that time, WN will have no choice but to look for another aircraft type, to be flown for some time in parallel with the 737.

If you believe WN will never add another aircraft type, then everyone should sell their WN shares right now as the company has no future.
 
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keesje
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 3:43 pm

FriscoHeavy wrote:
keesje wrote:
Kelly just doesn't walk the talk.

Riiiiiight :roll:


"He" deferred most of "his" 737-7s (24) after 2023. Westjet deferred their 23 until after 2021.

#3 Customer is Jetlines (?) they'll start operating next year. 5 737-7 on order, promising ULCC.

That's little possible 737-7 deliveries left for 2019, 2020. How is #4 -7 customer Turkmenistan Airlines doing (3 on order)?

Loyalty and sticking to confirmed quotes is great. Until it starts to be strange. When do you think e.g. Air Accord will take their A380s? It's official. https://www.airbus.com/content/dam/corporate-topics/publications/backgrounders/Backgrounder-Airbus-Commercial-Aircraft-A380-Customers-list-EN.pdf :eyebrow:
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 3:49 pm

keesje wrote:
FriscoHeavy wrote:
keesje wrote:
Kelly just doesn't walk the talk.

Riiiiiight :roll:


"He" deferred most of "his" 737-7s (24) after 2023. Westjet deferred their 23 until after 2021.

#3 Customer is Jetlines (?) they'll start operating next year. 5 737-7 on order, promising ULCC.

That's little possible 737-7 deliveries left for 2019, 2020. How is #4 -7 customer Turkmenistan Airlines doing (3 on order)?

Loyalty and sticking to confirmed quotes is great. Until it starts to be strange. When do you think e.g. Air Accord will take their A380s? It's official. https://www.airbus.com/content/dam/corporate-topics/publications/backgrounders/Backgrounder-Airbus-Commercial-Aircraft-A380-Customers-list-EN.pdf :eyebrow:


So what is your belief? What will WN do? When will they do it? Who will they do it with? Everyone above have put themselves out there - what is your belief?
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 3:59 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
DL717 wrote:
Southwest is not going to add another aircraft type. The end.

So, in your opinion, WN is doomed?

Boeing will, one day, stop production of the 737. I don't know when, but they will one day.
So, at that time, WN will have no choice but to look for another aircraft type, to be flown for some time in parallel with the 737.

If you believe WN will never add another aircraft type, then everyone should sell their WN shares right now as the company has no future.


Clearly one day WN will be flying a new type. The questions then become:

1: Until then, what do they do?
2: if the “new type” is going to have commonality with another as-yet-unknown type, do you jump now for what may be an orphan in your fleet or do you punt and just buy the MAX 7 to conveniently if not perfectly fit that role in the interim?

I think most here understand that could conceivably choose to buy different airframes for different markets I.e. an Ejet or CSeries/A220. I think the pushback is for the notion that they somehow have to because the MAX 7 isn’t the perfect <150 seater. WN has shown an affinity for being unconventional or at a minimum accepting short term pain for long term gain.

I guess we’ll see what they do.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
FriscoHeavy
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 3:59 pm

keesje wrote:
FriscoHeavy wrote:
keesje wrote:
Kelly just doesn't walk the talk.

Riiiiiight :roll:


"He" deferred most of "his" 737-7s (24) after 2023. Westjet deferred their 23 until after 2021.

#3 Customer is Jetlines (?) they'll start operating next year. 5 737-7 on order, promising ULCC.

That's little possible 737-7 deliveries left for 2019, 2020. How is #4 -7 customer Turkmenistan Airlines doing (3 on order)?

Loyalty and sticking to confirmed quotes is great. Until it starts to be strange. When do you think e.g. Air Accord will take their A380s? It's official. https://www.airbus.com/content/dam/corporate-topics/publications/backgrounders/Backgrounder-Airbus-Commercial-Aircraft-A380-Customers-list-EN.pdf :eyebrow:


It doesn't matter that few 737-7MAX's will be delivered between 2019-2021. It means and proves nothing. There is a need for 150 seat aircraft with great performance and this will serve them well. Why are you so hard headed? It makes you sound very immature and unable to look at things from a reasonable perspective.

In the end, it will have hundreds of orders from Southwest alone. The 738 can't replace all 73G's. That a logical thought process.
Whatever
 
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Re: Southwest Airlines 150 Seat 737-700 Replacement Question, Status?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:26 pm

This thread has turned into flamebait comments and personal attacks, so the thread will be locked.

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