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luckyone
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Sun Dec 16, 2018 1:22 pm

WIederling wrote:
luckyone wrote:
.......... Airbus pitched what has effectively become the A330neo around the time of the 787 launch—anyone else remember the much maligned comment about Airbus only needing to utilize new engines on the existing A330 aircraft. And airlines said thanks no thanks, leading to the A350.


The A350Mk1 accumulated quite a nice order book at the time. ( guess why airbus had so much problems moving those over to the XWB and/or the A330(NEO)
But afaics those that had the 787 on order ( like UDH ) derided the product to save guard their investment ( in the 787 ).
787 at the time sold on low pricing embelished to the wider public with all those super duper tech advances.
( If you look at the 787 A330NEO : same engine same sfc. Today again the 787 has been sold on low pricing. )

That’s an interesting take on it. It also begs the question of how many Airbus managers signed off then on a $10billion+ XWB project—and why— after receiving 140 orders for the much cheaper re-engine project.
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Sun Dec 16, 2018 2:10 pm

Any discussion of Airbus strategy has to take into account what Boeing is doing; after all, they are a duopoly and likely to remain so for the foreseeable future. And to keep both healthy for the long term the market should not be split more than about 55-45; more than that spells trouble. Right now things look good for both, but there are more clouds on the horizon for Airbus than for Boeing. And those clouds are that Boeing is able to build planes faster and cheaper than Airbus, and that gap appears to be growing. Ultimately, the race is not how many planes you can sell, but how many you can deliver. 15-20 yeas ago both manufacturers could pretty much build all the planes they could sell in a reasonable time frame, but that has changed. While air travel is increasing, the step gains in efficiency of new planes has put tremendous pressure on all airlines to replace their fleets. This is almost as severe as at the beginning of the jet age except there are many, many more planes involved, and Boeing relegated Douglas to the scrap heap more by being able to outproduce them rather than by having a better product. The same situation exists today. Airbus has a clearly superior narrowbody line (although the GTF problems are troubling), but Boeing is able to offer much better delivery and probably price. And they are ramping production up more than Airbus. And while the widebody offerings are less directly comparable (except for the 787 and A330NEO, where Boeing has a clear advantage) Boeing has a decided production advantage. And so the number one problem for Airbus is to get costs down and production up. Even if they have a better plane airlines will not buy them if they have to wait significantly longer and pay more than plan B.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
WIederling
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Sun Dec 16, 2018 4:47 pm

luckyone wrote:
That’s an interesting take on it. It also begs the question of how many Airbus managers signed off then on a $10billion+ XWB project—and why— after receiving 140 orders for the much cheaper re-engine project.


Airbus though not realizing this a the time had no chance of
competing against the druglike rush of the Dreamliner with a dry facts based counter offer.

Another guess: there were two factions acting towards different solutions to the 787 "problem".
The A350Mk1 upgrade crowd and the "let the A330 slogger on and produce a frame that looks like
a 787 competitor but actually hacks away at the heels of the 777.

The turnabout to the XWB happend one year ahead of the fake roll out of the 787.

My tentative guess is that Airbus was very aware of the Boeing problems and there being no chance
that the frame would fly in an acceptable ( "as planned" ) time frame and that manufacturing issues
would turn the project into a major PITA. ( my guess, again: 787 problems were known on the B side
when the hate warfare started on the A380. ~?2005? or even end of 2004 already?)

This seems to have turned the tide for the XWB crowd. A330 slogged on, very successfully.
XWB had enough time to come to a sane design and production environment.
Performance is quite good.

Looks like the right decision after all.
Murphy is an optimist
 
SelseyBill
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Sun Dec 16, 2018 5:23 pm

Taxi645 wrote:
If Airbus is going to do a strategic review of wing development and production post Brexit, I reckon the Dutch wouldn't say no:

- Still strong competence in aviation tech
- logistically well placed in relation to Germany, France and the sea.
- Several underused local Airports.
- Still got some credit from the Fokker disaster.

To be honest though. I think it will just remain in the UK or Brexit must indeed go terribly wrong (which I don't suspect).


I'm British, so my heart hopes Airbus keep their wing research/production here in the UK; but my brain says the French hates the UK enough at present that Airbus will not need much of an excuse to kill-off Airbus-UK and set up a new wing plant in China, where costs will possibly be lower.

I have a friend who works in rail freight, who says that the operators of the China-Germany regular rail service are looking at ways to increase container gauge, and one of the products we thought might possibly need a bigger container gauge might be plane wings, or parts. Apparently for every 10 containers that come into Europe full by rail from China, only 4 go back loaded, so Airbus may have a new way of moving parts and components cheaply to/from China if they wanted. Or if they set up a Chinese wing plant they could move some part-completed wings to to European plants, if thats cheaper than shipping from the UK or operating a bespoke Beluga fleet.
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Sun Dec 16, 2018 5:31 pm

In the other thread there seemed to be a theme where 320 output was in part constrained by space or lack of it.

Let’s suppose that the the space now devoted to 380 production went to the 320 program. How would this impact output?
 
WIederling
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Sun Dec 16, 2018 5:36 pm

SelseyBill wrote:
... but my brain says the French hates the UK enough at present that Airbus will not need much of an excuse to kill-off Airbus-UK and set up a new wing plant in China, where costs will possibly be lower.


The UK has the production of raw wings. But they also do the design part on the wings. Quite well actually.
Murphy is an optimist
 
SelseyBill
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Sun Dec 16, 2018 5:46 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
Right now the strong cash flow at Boeing which is providing the resources to fund research and development for them to consider launching a new platform is clear evidence they aren’t dumping planes and that they are in a strong position.


I'm a Boeing shareholder, and as far as I'm concerned, the only way Boeing has a strong cash position at present is that it has deferred so much 787 debt.

This may prove to be a smart creative strategy; and I don't have a problem with it broadly; but many Boeing shareholders believe that if you hide enough crap under the carpet long enough, eventually you trip over the bump. I believe this deferred debt in future balance sheets is a big reason in not being able to close the 797 business case, as B cannot afford another 787-type launch financially, especially with 777x sales not being where they wanted to be. Remember 'no more moonshots'?

Airbus could financially try to do with A321/A330NEOs to 797, what Boeing tried to do to the A330NEO with 787 pricing.

I like Boeings' strategy with 787 costing/pricing, and the 797/787/777x line-up looks potentially pretty awesome, but don't think for one minute that the implications of recent 787 pricing strategies are over. I'm not as relaxed with it as some seem to be........
 
SelseyBill
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Sun Dec 16, 2018 5:48 pm

WIederling wrote:
SelseyBill wrote:
... but my brain says the French hates the UK enough at present that Airbus will not need much of an excuse to kill-off Airbus-UK and set up a new wing plant in China, where costs will possibly be lower.


The UK has the production of raw wings. But they also do the design part on the wings. Quite well actually.


Murphy was indeed an optimist !!!!

Vive l'Europe !
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Sun Dec 16, 2018 5:49 pm

WIederling wrote:
SelseyBill wrote:
... but my brain says the French hates the UK enough at present that Airbus will not need much of an excuse to kill-off Airbus-UK and set up a new wing plant in China, where costs will possibly be lower.


The UK has the production of raw wings. But they also do the design part on the wings. Quite well actually.


Totally agree, Wing design has been a strength of various UK engineering companies dating back to the WWII spitfire. That is a legacy that cannot easily be recreated.
 
WIederling
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Sun Dec 16, 2018 5:49 pm

Planeflyer wrote:
In the other thread there seemed to be a theme where 320 output was in part constrained by space or lack of it.

Let’s suppose that the the space now devoted to 380 production went to the 320 program. How would this impact output?


The new more robotic FAL line #4 in XFW occupies infrastructure built for A380 work.
Then this is a bit of a conjured up by interested parties kind of problem.
A320 production++ and deliveries+ have gone up during transition to the NEO .( deliv. - production = gliders )
We've seen engine issues holding up delivery but not production.
( Will be interesting to see the number of delivered NB end of 2018 _plus_ the remaining number of gliders.)
We've seen teething issues on the new line ( how surprising :-)
We've heard rumors about complementing changes in A321 outfitting have
caused delays or have collided with FAL#4 fine tuning.
One unrelated issue is customers moving from A320 to A321 causing frames being moved from TLS to the other sites.
This requires that parts flow must change to the new manufacturing site.
Murphy is an optimist
 
StTim
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Sun Dec 16, 2018 6:05 pm

I understand that Boeing has picked up some ideas from the way that Airbus builds the wings at Broughton for the 777X wing production facility.
 
luckyone
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Sun Dec 16, 2018 6:28 pm

WIederling wrote:
luckyone wrote:
That’s an interesting take on it. It also begs the question of how many Airbus managers signed off then on a $10billion+ XWB project—and why— after receiving 140 orders for the much cheaper re-engine project.


Airbus though not realizing this a the time had no chance of
competing against the druglike rush of the Dreamliner with a dry facts based counter offer.

Another guess: there were two factions acting towards different solutions to the 787 "problem".
The A350Mk1 upgrade crowd and the "let the A330 slogger on and produce a frame that looks like
a 787 competitor but actually hacks away at the heels of the 777.

The turnabout to the XWB happend one year ahead of the fake roll out of the 787.

My tentative guess is that Airbus was very aware of the Boeing problems and there being no chance
that the frame would fly in an acceptable ( "as planned" ) time frame and that manufacturing issues
would turn the project into a major PITA. ( my guess, again: 787 problems were known on the B side
when the hate warfare started on the A380. ~?2005? or even end of 2004 already?)

This seems to have turned the tide for the XWB crowd. A330 slogged on, very successfully.
XWB had enough time to come to a sane design and production environment.
Performance is quite good.

Looks like the right decision after all.

If any of the doltish and dundering decisions you describe your conjectures are even remotely rooted in fact, then it’s astounding that Airbus is still in business.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Sun Dec 16, 2018 7:12 pm

SelseyBill wrote:
Taxi645 wrote:
If Airbus is going to do a strategic review of wing development and production post Brexit, I reckon the Dutch wouldn't say no:

- Still strong competence in aviation tech
- logistically well placed in relation to Germany, France and the sea.
- Several underused local Airports.
- Still got some credit from the Fokker disaster.

To be honest though. I think it will just remain in the UK or Brexit must indeed go terribly wrong (which I don't suspect).


I'm British, so my heart hopes Airbus keep their wing research/production here in the UK; but my brain says the French hates the UK enough at present that Airbus will not need much of an excuse to kill-off Airbus-UK and set up a new wing plant in China, where costs will possibly be lower.

I have a friend who works in rail freight, who says that the operators of the China-Germany regular rail service are looking at ways to increase container gauge, and one of the products we thought might possibly need a bigger container gauge might be plane wings, or parts. Apparently for every 10 containers that come into Europe full by rail from China, only 4 go back loaded, so Airbus may have a new way of moving parts and components cheaply to/from China if they wanted. Or if they set up a Chinese wing plant they could move some part-completed wings to to European plants, if thats cheaper than shipping from the UK or operating a bespoke Beluga fleet.


res my two boldings:

I think 'hate' is very much the wrong world. Rather France may covet those wing building plants and jobs. The competition for higher paying manufacturing jobs is ferocious the world around.

There may be a lot of room on those RR cars, but can they get over tunnels, bridges and other choke points with a wing, fuselage, or such parts aboard?
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Sun Dec 16, 2018 7:32 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
SelseyBill wrote:
Taxi645 wrote:
If Airbus is going to do a strategic review of wing development and production post Brexit, I reckon the Dutch wouldn't say no:

- Still strong competence in aviation tech
- logistically well placed in relation to Germany, France and the sea.
- Several underused local Airports.
- Still got some credit from the Fokker disaster.

To be honest though. I think it will just remain in the UK or Brexit must indeed go terribly wrong (which I don't suspect).


I'm British, so my heart hopes Airbus keep their wing research/production here in the UK; but my brain says the French hates the UK enough at present that Airbus will not need much of an excuse to kill-off Airbus-UK and set up a new wing plant in China, where costs will possibly be lower.

I have a friend who works in rail freight, who says that the operators of the China-Germany regular rail service are looking at ways to increase container gauge, and one of the products we thought might possibly need a bigger container gauge might be plane wings, or parts. Apparently for every 10 containers that come into Europe full by rail from China, only 4 go back loaded, so Airbus may have a new way of moving parts and components cheaply to/from China if they wanted. Or if they set up a Chinese wing plant they could move some part-completed wings to to European plants, if thats cheaper than shipping from the UK or operating a bespoke Beluga fleet.


res my two boldings:

I think 'hate' is very much the wrong world. Rather France may covet those wing building plants and jobs. The competition for higher paying manufacturing jobs is ferocious the world around.

There may be a lot of room on those RR cars, but can they get over tunnels, bridges and other choke points with a wing, fuselage, or such parts aboard?


Does france have the engineering expertise to take over wing design? That is some of the most complex structure to both design and build with decades of aerodynamics refinement. Poor design decisions or manufacturing can result in atrocious inspections being mandated on the airlines. Airlines avoid going in the fuel tanks as much as possible. An AD mandating inspections looking for cracks at any interval less than about 6 years will cause airlines to complain. Moving wing work is something that needs to be done very carefully and thoughtfully.
 
Planeflyer
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Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2014 3:49 am

Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Sun Dec 16, 2018 10:43 pm

WIederling wrote:
Planeflyer wrote:
In the other thread there seemed to be a theme where 320 output was in part constrained by space or lack of it.

Let’s suppose that the the space now devoted to 380 production went to the 320 program. How would this impact output?


The new more robotic FAL line #4 in XFW occupies infrastructure built for A380 work.
Then this is a bit of a conjured up by interested parties kind of problem.
A320 production++ and deliveries+ have gone up during transition to the NEO .( deliv. - production = gliders )
We've seen engine issues holding up delivery but not production.
( Will be interesting to see the number of delivered NB end of 2018 _plus_ the remaining number of gliders.)
We've seen teething issues on the new line ( how surprising :-)
We've heard rumors about complementing changes in A321 outfitting have
caused delays or have collided with FAL#4 fine tuning.
One unrelated issue is customers moving from A320 to A321 causing frames being moved from TLS to the other sites.
This requires that parts flow must change to the new manufacturing site.


Thanks for the information.

What I can’t understand is given the increased output of both 320 and 350 why has cash flow and net income not followed?
 
SelseyBill
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:46 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
Does france have the engineering expertise to take over wing design? That is some of the most complex structure to both design and build with decades of aerodynamics refinement. Poor design decisions or manufacturing can result in atrocious inspections being mandated on the airlines. Airlines avoid going in the fuel tanks as much as possible. An AD mandating inspections looking for cracks at any interval less than about 6 years will cause airlines to complain. Moving wing work is something that needs to be done very carefully and thoughtfully.


@ 'Newbiepilot'.......not so much 'moving' the production, but introducing a completely new wing design at a completely new plant with much more 'automation'; (probably in China); and slowly phasing out production in the UK. That is the real fear of many at Broughton.

I think Airbus will keep the design facility at Filton, where their prowess seems to be valued highly, and moving labour between Bristol-Bremen-Hamburg-Toulouse is much cheaper than moving components. There's no doubt in the view of many, that the wing design output from the folks at Bristol is something that even Boeing engineers highly respect, as they have tried to actively recruit many of them I understand.......
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:02 am

SelseyBill wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
Does france have the engineering expertise to take over wing design? That is some of the most complex structure to both design and build with decades of aerodynamics refinement. Poor design decisions or manufacturing can result in atrocious inspections being mandated on the airlines. Airlines avoid going in the fuel tanks as much as possible. An AD mandating inspections looking for cracks at any interval less than about 6 years will cause airlines to complain. Moving wing work is something that needs to be done very carefully and thoughtfully.


@ 'Newbiepilot'.......not so much 'moving' the production, but introducing a completely new wing design at a completely new plant with much more 'automation'; (probably in China); and slowly phasing out production in the UK. That is the real fear of many at Broughton.

I think Airbus will keep the design facility at Filton, where their prowess seems to be valued highly, and moving labour between Bristol-Bremen-Hamburg-Toulouse is much cheaper than moving components. There's no doubt in the view of many, that the wing design output from the folks at Bristol is something that even Boeing engineers highly respect, as they have tried to actively recruit many of them I understand.......


Boeing has so much respect for the capabilty in the Uk that they recently created a flight control actuation division in Sheffield which is making actuation parts for the trailing edge of the wing.

https://www.boeing.co.uk/sheffield

Brexit is a big deal for Airbus. If Airbus begins to pull out of the UK, others may come in including their competition to utilize those resources. I believe this is in the mind of Airbus executives.
 
WIederling
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Mon Dec 17, 2018 8:25 am

Planeflyer wrote:
What I can’t understand is given the increased output of both 320 and 350 why has cash flow and net income not followed?


Real Bookkeeping (TM) ? :-))))))))))))))

IFRS and B-GAAP value a lot of things completely different.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:21 am

It will be interesting to see what the A220 impact will be.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
astuteman
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:23 pm

Planeflyer wrote:
WIederling wrote:
Planeflyer wrote:
In the other thread there seemed to be a theme where 320 output was in part constrained by space or lack of it.

Let’s suppose that the the space now devoted to 380 production went to the 320 program. How would this impact output?


The new more robotic FAL line #4 in XFW occupies infrastructure built for A380 work.
Then this is a bit of a conjured up by interested parties kind of problem.
A320 production++ and deliveries+ have gone up during transition to the NEO .( deliv. - production = gliders )
We've seen engine issues holding up delivery but not production.
( Will be interesting to see the number of delivered NB end of 2018 _plus_ the remaining number of gliders.)
We've seen teething issues on the new line ( how surprising :-)
We've heard rumors about complementing changes in A321 outfitting have
caused delays or have collided with FAL#4 fine tuning.
One unrelated issue is customers moving from A320 to A321 causing frames being moved from TLS to the other sites.
This requires that parts flow must change to the new manufacturing site.


Thanks for the information.

What I can’t understand is given the increased output of both 320 and 350 why has cash flow and net income not followed?


The bulk of the answer to that question lies in one word...

Gliders....

The WIP value of the aircraft that must have been sat in the production system waiting for engines (in the case of the A320NEO and A330NEO) or galley/cabin fittings (in the case of the A350) has been staggering.

Trying to increase production (especially if it challenges the limits of the production process) whilst mostly complete aircraft are sat on the tarmac without engines is a fantastic way to destroy cash, income, and shareholder value.

I am expecting a fairly significant rise in both over the next year or so as that huge WIP flows out of the system.

Rgds
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Mon Dec 17, 2018 4:19 pm

astuteman wrote:
Planeflyer wrote:
WIederling wrote:

The new more robotic FAL line #4 in XFW occupies infrastructure built for A380 work.
Then this is a bit of a conjured up by interested parties kind of problem.
A320 production++ and deliveries+ have gone up during transition to the NEO .( deliv. - production = gliders )
We've seen engine issues holding up delivery but not production.
( Will be interesting to see the number of delivered NB end of 2018 _plus_ the remaining number of gliders.)
We've seen teething issues on the new line ( how surprising :-)
We've heard rumors about complementing changes in A321 outfitting have
caused delays or have collided with FAL#4 fine tuning.
One unrelated issue is customers moving from A320 to A321 causing frames being moved from TLS to the other sites.
This requires that parts flow must change to the new manufacturing site.


Thanks for the information.

What I can’t understand is given the increased output of both 320 and 350 why has cash flow and net income not followed?


The bulk of the answer to that question lies in one word...

Gliders....

The WIP value of the aircraft that must have been sat in the production system waiting for engines (in the case of the A320NEO and A330NEO) or galley/cabin fittings (in the case of the A350) has been staggering.

Trying to increase production (especially if it challenges the limits of the production process) whilst mostly complete aircraft are sat on the tarmac without engines is a fantastic way to destroy cash, income, and shareholder value.

I am expecting a fairly significant rise in both over the next year or so as that huge WIP flows out of the system.

Rgds


No doubt, gliders are a significant issue but if you pull up income statements over the past 5 years you will see that there is not a positive trend in either cash flow or income despite increase in deliveries.

This trend suggests that something is wrong structurally. Now maybe the 400, 380 and other programs besides the 320 and 350 are dragging the totals down in which case fixing the problem is much easier.

I think all the management changes have been made to address this issue.
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Mon Dec 17, 2018 4:39 pm

WIederling wrote:
Planeflyer wrote:
What I can’t understand is given the increased output of both 320 and 350 why has cash flow and net income not followed?


Real Bookkeeping (TM) ? :-))))))))))))))

IFRS and B-GAAP value a lot of things completely different.


Don’t understand, are you trying to say AB is understanding financials?

If you are trying to say Boeing is rather overstating their numbers we’ve been there and done that so let’s not waste time.

AB top management on numerous earnings calls over the past 5 years has referenced poor income and cash flow generation and have missed their own really conservative targets.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Mon Dec 17, 2018 5:05 pm

Planeflyer wrote:
I think all the management changes have been made to address this issue.

I'm not sure about that.

From what I've read, many of the managers (Leahy, Evard, Williams) requested retirement and were asked to stay an extra year.

On the other hand, the man on top (Enders) was said to have wanted an extension but did not get one in the aftermath of the Bregier situation.

Maybe the desire to gain some distance from the corruption probe played a role too.

A changing of the guard was inevitable and it's natural for a new new management team to do a thorough review of the situation and the usual outcome is some projects win and some lose.

It should be interesting to see the outcome.
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The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
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kanban
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Mon Dec 17, 2018 6:22 pm

I'm not sure how soon we will see the results of Guillaume Faury's actions.. making a manufacturing process change as big as is needed will take resources that seem to be in short supply.
The comment above about using the remaining A380 buildings for expanded A320 production is interesting however it still leaves the process fragmented all over the site. Further more short FALs add to the tooling, and manpower costs while not increasing the profit side. The line #4 looks interesting but the photos make it look like a robotics sales room rather than a production facility. There may also be a rate limitation (like Boeing has had) with the pre-FAL process limitations. Has anyone seen or visited the pre-FALs? Is the tooling there model specific or generic? can they add more positions or are they also space limited?

Keeping Leahy, Evard, andWilliams around will hinder the restructuring. There will be managers who will defer to them instead of embracing change. They will meddle with any changes to "their legacy" best to squirrel them away in a remote office tower with no plant access. (We had a case at Boeing where a retired upper manager would come into the plant and try to over rule any changes his successor made.. they eventually had the gate guards deny him entrance).

There is this constant whining about A vs B in the thread.. But the thread is about A trying to improve and the most resistant posters are the A fanboys - - go figure. Many of the B posters are offering ideas to assist improving, knowing that a good rival is worth far more than a marginally profitable one. Speaking of that; does Airbus do any active benchmarking????
 
WIederling
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Mon Dec 17, 2018 7:18 pm

kanban wrote:
Many of the B posters are offering ideas to assist improving, knowing that a good rival is worth far more than a marginally profitable one. Speaking of that; does Airbus do any active benchmarking????


Sure. "Airbus must set up shop like Boeing does". or else...

There is a reason why Airbus is more productive per worker than Boeing.
( Surprising in scope of everything being "less capitalist" ( and thus inferior to the American model.) in Europe.
all that icky stuff: good wages, health care, job security, ... completely inefficient transport of sections, ... )
Murphy is an optimist
 
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kanban
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Mon Dec 17, 2018 7:38 pm

WIederling wrote:
kanban wrote:
Many of the B posters are offering ideas to assist improving, knowing that a good rival is worth far more than a marginally profitable one. Speaking of that; does Airbus do any active benchmarking????


Sure. "Airbus must set up shop like Boeing does". or else...

There is a reason why Airbus is more productive per worker than Boeing.
( Surprising in scope of everything being "less capitalist" ( and thus inferior to the American model.) in Europe.
all that icky stuff: good wages, health care, job security, ... completely inefficient transport of sections, ... )


No airbus does not need to just copy Boeing, however it needs too address the production process shortfalls that exist... While Boeing has succeeded in one direction, maybe Airbus can succeed in another however the current direction is flawed. I find you productivity statement interesting... especially when it is obvious the amount of non-value added work their current production method entails. I'd be interested to see the source of your comment. I recall a forklift operator who got the employee of the month award because he was always busy hence productive.. a closer examination revealed he never picked up a load, just drove around all day..
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Mon Dec 17, 2018 7:53 pm

The best measure of worker productivity is revenue and profit per employee.

Here are some links that deal in the facts of the matter:

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/s ... sy/profile

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ba/profile
 
rbavfan
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Mon Dec 17, 2018 8:20 pm

FatCat wrote:
imho
737 is 40 years old
320 is 30 years old
both designs are ageing and, while they can perfectly (ish) fit in today's markets, both players will need brand new designs in the next 10 - 15 years.

imho
330neo was not a mistake. it is clear that the most successful widebody of airbus needs some improvements. it's the natural evolution of a machine. they do not have many orders, but many will come, as older 330s and the handful of 340s still flying will be replaced either by 350s or 330neos - if not by 787s.



Actually first flight of the 737 was April 9, 1967. so very soon to be 53 years old. The A320 after the new year will only be 32 years from first flight.
That makes the 737 21 years older.
 
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kanban
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:40 pm

rbavfan wrote:
FatCat wrote:
imho
737 is 40 years old
320 is 30 years old
both designs are ageing and, while they can perfectly (ish) fit in today's markets, both players will need brand new designs in the next 10 - 15 years.

imho
330neo was not a mistake. it is clear that the most successful widebody of airbus needs some improvements. it's the natural evolution of a machine. they do not have many orders, but many will come, as older 330s and the handful of 340s still flying will be replaced either by 350s or 330neos - if not by 787s.



Actually first flight of the 737 was April 9, 1967. so very soon to be 53 years old. The A320 after the new year will only be 32 years from first flight.
That makes the 737 21 years older.


what does your post have to do with the productivity/profitability of the manufacturer... it's just a repeat of an earlier trolling comment.
 
RobertPhoenix
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:32 pm

Planeflyer wrote:
The best measure of worker productivity is revenue and profit per employee.

Here are some links that deal in the facts of the matter:

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/s ... sy/profile

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ba/profile


If both companies had the same percentage of work in house, a straight comparison of those statistics would be meaningful, but that is not the case.
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:49 pm

RobertPhoenix wrote:
Planeflyer wrote:
The best measure of worker productivity is revenue and profit per employee.

Here are some links that deal in the facts of the matter:

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/s ... sy/profile

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ba/profile


If both companies had the same percentage of work in house, a straight comparison of those statistics would be meaningful, but that is not the case.


Profit per employee accounts for differences in outsourcing.Except for NB backlog, whatever metric, AB is lagging. New management was not brought in for no reason.,
 
Ruscoe
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:52 pm

Best measure is what is happening in the market.
Boeing just announced a new 20billion share buy back and a 20% increase in dividend, as well as paying over 4billion for 80% share in Embraer.

Boeing $322 share, PE 18, EPS $17, Market Cap $ 180 billion, 568 million shares outstanding, Cash 10 billion, Debt 12 billion

Airbus Euro 88 share, PE 23, EPS Euro 3.76, Market cap Eur 69billion, 776 million shares outstanding, Cash 9 billion, Debt 11 billion


Ruscoe
 
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kanban
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Tue Dec 18, 2018 12:20 am

yes the guy was employed by Boeing but obviously didn't "work" for Boeing. The time frame was 1965.

Those of you trying to grasp whether either company is profitable, you can find or create metrics to prove what ever you wish. However when Faury says the company needs improvement, I'd say listen to him, and stop defending status quo.

and then I have asked some questions about Airbus and it's "pre FAL" process and capacity.. and I take it that it is either abysmal so nobody's saying or nobody knows.
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Tue Dec 18, 2018 4:54 am

Ruscoe wrote:
Best measure is what is happening in the market.
Boeing just announced a new 20billion share buy back and a 20% increase in dividend, as well as paying over 4billion for 80% share in Embraer.

Boeing $322 share, PE 18, EPS $17, Market Cap $ 180 billion, 568 million shares outstanding, Cash 10 billion, Debt 12 billion

Airbus Euro 88 share, PE 23, EPS Euro 3.76, Market cap Eur 69billion, 776 million shares outstanding, Cash 9 billion, Debt 11 billion


Ruscoe



Good points and though it’s amazing that it must be spelled out, the buybacks and dividends require cash. And before we have to listen to Financial conspiracy theories, while accounting fraud is all too common Boeing just cannot create this much cash from thin air.

For those of you who can not put an objective lens on, do you actually own any shares?

Way long Boeing.
 
parapente
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:45 am

One of the problems for EADS/Airbus is that it remain at heart a politically run enterprise rather than a commercial one.They tried to address the size differential between themselves and Boeing via the acquisition of BAE.The commercial deal was agreed and would have created an overall structure far closer to Boeing.However the Chancellor of Germany intervened and simply cancelled it.
Their hands are tied.This needs to change - but it won't as this is Europe not America.
As for automating and streamlining manufacturing methods in Toulouse.In France -are you kidding.Just take a look at what's going on there in their yellow vests.Not going to happen sadly.
 
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PW100
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Tue Dec 18, 2018 5:34 pm

Planeflyer wrote:
Ruscoe wrote:
Best measure is what is happening in the market.
Boeing just announced a new 20billion share buy back and a 20% increase in dividend, as well as paying over 4billion for 80% share in Embraer.

Boeing $322 share, PE 18, EPS $17, Market Cap $ 180 billion, 568 million shares outstanding, Cash 10 billion, Debt 12 billion

Airbus Euro 88 share, PE 23, EPS Euro 3.76, Market cap Eur 69billion, 776 million shares outstanding, Cash 9 billion, Debt 11 billion


Ruscoe



Good points and though it’s amazing that it must be spelled out, the buybacks and dividends require cash. And before we have to listen to Financial conspiracy theories, while accounting fraud is all too common Boeing just cannot create this much cash from thin air.

For those of you who can not put an objective lens on, do you actually own any shares?

Way long Boeing.


How much of that could/should be accounted for to he military business, where Airbus obvious lacks compared to Boeing?

How does that then translate to "Best measure is what is happening in the market when one really is comparing different markets . . . ?
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LaunchDetected
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Tue Dec 18, 2018 5:54 pm

parapente wrote:
One of the problems for EADS/Airbus is that it remain at heart a politically run enterprise rather than a commercial one.They tried to address the size differential between themselves and Boeing via the acquisition of BAE.The commercial deal was agreed and would have created an overall structure far closer to Boeing.However the Chancellor of Germany intervened and simply cancelled it.
Their hands are tied.This needs to change - but it won't as this is Europe not America.
As for automating and streamlining manufacturing methods in Toulouse.In France -are you kidding.Just take a look at what's going on there in their yellow vests.Not going to happen sadly.


Your lack of knowledge and biaised assumptions does not provide any valuable input to this thread. Please be more subtle when you try to use your uninformed political opinion to make predictions.

An automated production line like the one they built in Hamburg is very expensive and like said before, more a showcase of machine tool than an useful and productive line. As far as i know from some talks at Airbus, there is a lot of improvement to be made in "legacy" lines before investing in a turnkey automated line. Streamlining internal processes are not sexy enough to be discussed there, but can provide valuable time benefits during critical manufacturing phases.

I wonder how many posters in this thread have a relevant experience in aircraft assembly lines, or even in manufacturing industry.
Caravelle lover
 
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seahawk
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Tue Dec 18, 2018 6:29 pm

The new line in Hamburg is not much more automated, it is mainly much more flexible. Apart from Luise and Renate, the 7 axis drilling robots, there are no new production robots. The basic thing are the new MTP (mobile tooling platforms) that can easily switch from making one variant to the other, while still providing an optimized working environment.
 
CFRPwingALbody
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:30 pm

kanban wrote:
Those of you trying to grasp whether either company is profitable, you can find or create metrics to prove what ever you wish. However when Faury says the company needs improvement, I'd say listen to him, and stop defending status quo.

I agree with this statement.

kanban wrote:
And then I have asked some questions about Airbus and it's "pre FAL" process and capacity.. and I take it that it is either abysmal so nobody's saying or nobody knows.

AFAIK Airbus is increased A320 pre-FAL capacity by ~50% between 2015 and 2019 from rate 42 to rate 60 (63). AFAIK this included production proces changes comparable to what happened with the 737 in the 90s.
At the same time the A350 production is also ramping up (to rate 10). And the A330 and A380 have / are ramping down.
All these points are bad for profit margin on the short term, the production increases are good on the long term.

I don't know how unused the gigantic A380 FAL (build to produce 60 A380s annually ?!) is. How much is it used for A350 production?
This could be a very expansive production facility that is underutilized. The Hamburg FAL was expanded for the A380, but only facilities were build to compleet 30 A380's annually. And some of these facilities have already been converted to Hamburg A320 FAL#4.

I think the A320 ramp-up past rate 63/month and A220 ramp-up will turn out to be the same projects.
The A320 Mobile FAL production rate increase and the new A220 Mobile FAL will share several facilities. (This is in study phase)
But A220 production strategy is currently more like Boeings processes that Airbus processes. AFAIK A220 lags pre-FAL facilities, not a cabin outfitting flowline. A320 production capacity is maxed out at rate 63 because of pre-FAL facilities.
Than there is the Beluga / Beluga XL fleet and the couple of ships Airbus uses for logistics between pre-FALs and to the FALs. The Belugas are over utilized and AFAIK there is additional capacity on the ships. But I could be wrong on the ship utilization.
I think production logistics is the largest production bottleneck at Airbus, and Brexit will add to the logistics problems.
So in my opinion, for further A320 rate increase Airbus needs to abandon the A320 work-share arrangement, at least for the capacity above rate 60.

For future product development:
- I think the A330 can have some fuselage improvements. (I don't mean a material change)
- The A320, A330 and A380 could use a new CFRP wing. (but where to design and produce them, considering Brexit?)
- There is the electrification movement.
- And lastly there might be some radical aerodynamic changes.
(The RR Advanced and UltraFAN will also get implemented, but I consider these as Engine supplier developments and less so Airbus developments)

I think the A380 is the most problematic program Airbus has, because it has dedicated facilities and it can only be improved for the (small) VLA market. The A330NEO just started deliveries, more than a year late. The A350 ramp-up program has utilized the under utilization of A330/A350 FAL facilities by the A330 production. I'm curious how the A330NEO ramp-up is going to work out while the A350 remains at rate 10, or gets pushed to rate 13. Possibly the A380 completion center in Hamburg and the A330 C&D center in Tianjin can help with this.
If the demand for A330NEO's remains low, Airbus could utilize the FAL and pre-FAL facilities for A350s. Or they could improve the A330NEO/ develop a new small widebody.
But the biggest problem Airbus has is fulfilling the production commitments / completing order commitments. And doing this at a decent profit margin.

(I admit I don't have insight or experience into plane production processes.
 
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kanban
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:40 pm

CFRPwingALbody:

Thanks for your input..
I've got google maps of both major sites and have tried identifying what takes place in each build, plus the flows for each aircraft series as the are rolled through processes. quite honesty it looks like somebody took several hands full of Monopoly houses and hotels and dropped them on the floor.

One of the difficulties Faury is going to run into is the non hardware process systems (Engineering, Manufacturing, Procurement, QA etc) and their champions were designed to support this disjointed manufacturing process.
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:17 pm

PW100 wrote:
Planeflyer wrote:
Ruscoe wrote:
Best measure is what is happening in the market.
Boeing just announced a new 20billion share buy back and a 20% increase in dividend, as well as paying over 4billion for 80% share in Embraer.

Boeing $322 share, PE 18, EPS $17, Market Cap $ 180 billion, 568 million shares outstanding, Cash 10 billion, Debt 12 billion

Airbus Euro 88 share, PE 23, EPS Euro 3.76, Market cap Eur 69billion, 776 million shares outstanding, Cash 9 billion, Debt 11 billion


Ruscoe



Good points and though it’s amazing that it must be spelled out, the buybacks and dividends require cash. And before we have to listen to Financial conspiracy theories, while accounting fraud is all too common Boeing just cannot create this much cash from thin air.

For those of you who can not put an objective lens on, do you actually own any shares?

Way long Boeing.


How much of that could/should be accounted for to he military business, where Airbus obvious lacks compared to Boeing?

How does that then translate to "Best measure is what is happening in the market when one really is comparing different markets . . . ?


Really grabbing at straws.
 
TheOldDude
Posts: 152
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:19 pm

SelseyBill wrote:
I'm a Boeing shareholder, and as far as I'm concerned, the only way Boeing has a strong cash position at present is that it has deferred so much 787 debt.


In the above comment, "787 debt" is puzzling...is that actual debt from a lender (e.g. note, loan, etc), or is it deferred production cost?

If it is deferred production cost I'm puzzled. I always thought that cash fell when goods and services were paid for, whether or not that spending was capitalized or expensed, and increased when customers paid for product. What am I missing?
 
EvanWSFO
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:24 pm

FatCat wrote:
imho
737 is 40 years old
320 is 30 years old
both designs are ageing and, while they can perfectly (ish) fit in today's markets, both players will need brand new designs in the next 10 - 15 years.

imho
330neo was not a mistake. it is clear that the most successful widebody of airbus needs some improvements. it's the natural evolution of a machine. they do not have many orders, but many will come, as older 330s and the handful of 340s still flying will be replaced either by 350s or 330neos - if not by 787s.


There are only so many ways you can build a narrowbody airliner (or wide for that matter).. The 737 and 320 families changed with the times nicely over the years. Just because the program dates are old, doesn't mean the planes have to be. I suspect both aircraft will be built well into the 20's and beyond.
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CFRPwingALbody
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:32 pm

kanban wrote:
CFRPwingALbody:

Thanks for your input..
I've got google maps of both major sites and have tried identifying what takes place in each build, plus the flows for each aircraft series as the are rolled through processes. quite honesty it looks like somebody took several hands full of Monopoly houses and hotels and dropped them on the floor.

One of the difficulties Faury is going to run into is the non hardware process systems (Engineering, Manufacturing, Procurement, QA etc) and their champions were designed to support this disjointed manufacturing process.


I think Hamburg is structured like it is for historical reasons. I think this foto's from this reasearchgate article explains the situation.
Image

Edit to add: the building that contains XFW A320 FAL #4: Hangar 213/214
Last edited by CFRPwingALbody on Tue Dec 18, 2018 11:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:47 pm

TheOldDude wrote:
SelseyBill wrote:
I'm a Boeing shareholder, and as far as I'm concerned, the only way Boeing has a strong cash position at present is that it has deferred so much 787 debt.

In the above comment, "787 debt" is puzzling...is that actual debt from a lender (e.g. note, loan, etc), or is it deferred production cost?

If it is deferred production cost I'm puzzled. I always thought that cash fell when goods and services were paid for, whether or not that spending was capitalized or expensed, and increased when customers paid for product. What am I missing?

You are right, it is deferred production cost previously capitalized, but going down that path is off topic for an Airbus strategy thread.

What we know is Airbus executives admit their cash flow is lower than desired, so we can presume one part of the strategy review will be the desire to address that.
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JayinKitsap
Posts: 2290
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:50 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
kanban wrote:
CFRPwingALbody:

Thanks for your input..
I've got google maps of both major sites and have tried identifying what takes place in each build, plus the flows for each aircraft series as the are rolled through processes. quite honesty it looks like somebody took several hands full of Monopoly houses and hotels and dropped them on the floor.

One of the difficulties Faury is going to run into is the non hardware process systems (Engineering, Manufacturing, Procurement, QA etc) and their champions were designed to support this disjointed manufacturing process.


I think Hamburg is structured like it is for historical reasons. I think this foto's from this reasearchgate article explains the situation.
Image


The article that reasearchgate linked to is https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... a_Projects
Quite interesting how Airbus got the permits to fill in this area, then build the structures. The article notes they could have built a greenfield plant, probably would have been better.
 
WIederling
Posts: 9422
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Tue Dec 18, 2018 11:16 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
The article that reasearchgate linked to is https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... a_Projects
Quite interesting how Airbus got the permits to fill in this area, then build the structures. The article notes they could have built a greenfield plant, probably would have been better.


Back before WWII the landfill that the new buildings have been erected on was excavated to allow for a shallow water flying boat
landing/starting area to support the Blohm und Voss aeronautic subsidiary.

It is questionable if they could have done a green field site.
Impossible would have been a green field site with a sufficiently large runway attached.

Greens would have run amok.
Murphy is an optimist
 
strfyr51
Posts: 5089
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:22 am

WIederling wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Personally, I'll focus on the 787th ship built, 1400 orders, record widebody production rate, etc.

And 1800++ orders needed to make any profit at all.

Nobody outside of Boeing really knows How Many orders it will be for the B787 to become a profitable program. If in fact? It isn't already.
 
Noshow
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:27 am

We just don't know. They reused a lot of the design technology for the -9 and -10 wings and then the 777X wing.
However the 777X is built in Everett again - including the wing. Some VERY different method from the 787.

If the 737 successor will be some mini-787 it might have paid off finally.
 
WIederling
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Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:51 am

strfyr51 wrote:
Nobody outside of Boeing really knows How Many orders it will be for the B787 to become a profitable program. If in fact? It isn't already.

IMU the minimum is when they have worked the "deferred cost" asset down to zero.
Murphy is an optimist

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