Fri Dec 14, 2018 7:15 am
As far as I understand this forum is to discuss, maybe less emotional but more fact-focused replies would be better.
There are several overlapping substances in China :
a) China likes the huge project and this is not communist invention, but valid for ages
b) newly built airports are finished with some reserve, which is to be quantified by an increase of air travelers and that is becoming with some efficiency /to build an airport where your predicted capacity is exhausted already when you cut the ribbon, is economic nonsense. This doesn't exclude some, where politically driven interest (local politicians economy interest or central government attempts to decrease social tensions) makes trouble. But this happens all over the world, Europe notwithstanding, albeit in a smaller scale. But I don't think this is in the scale of their vacancy in the housing sector (almost 20%).
c) as to the HSR network - core has been laid down and those main arteries - PEK-SHA, PEK-CAN are becoming rather crowdy so both will be duplicated and its already in pipe / first with the connection via Ganzhou and Nanchang, second via Qingdao and Tianjin/. Reserves I can see with trains where they don't use double deckers like in France, but still many of HSR units are substantially longer than in Europe. Be there for 5 weeks this year and used it 13 times. The system is running well /even I can't swallow boarding and security system in the stations /.
d) I have no doubt about PVG, CAN reach 100m in the future. But with others, we will see. CTU is not on the list because of the new airport to be finished in a couple of years southeast from the city
e) the horizon mentioned is 2035 so it means 17 years, let's look about history
airport 2000 2010 2017 diff
PEK/ZBAA 21 691 73 948 95 786 441,6%
PVG/ZSPD 5 544 40 579 70 001 1262,7%
CAN/ZGGG 12 791 40 976 65 807 514,5%
CTU/ZUUU 5 525 25 806 49 802 901,4%
SZX/ZGSZ 6 423 26 714 45 611 710,1%
KMG/ZPPP 5 604 20 192 44 728 798,1%
SHA/ZSSS 12 140 31 299 41 884 345,0%
XIY/ZLXY 3 879 18 010 41 857 1079,1%
CKG/ZUCK 2 780 15 802 38 715 1392,4%
HGH/ZSHC 2 492 17 069 35 570 1427,2%
NKG/ZSNJ 2 437 12 531 25 823 1059,8%
XMN/ZSAM 3 552 13 206 24 485 689,4%
CGO/ZHCC 1 517 8 708 24 299 1602,1%
CSX/ZGHA 2 035 12 621 23 765 1168,1%
TAO/ZSQD 2 432 11 101 23 211 954,6%
WUH/ZHHH 1 757 11 647 23 129 1316,6%
HAK/ZJHK 4 363 8 774 22 585 517,7%
URC/ZWWW 1 598 9 148 21 501 1345,8%
TSN/ZBTJ 884 7 277 21 005 2375,1%
SYX/ZJSY 655 9 294 19 390 2962,6%
HRB/ZYHB 1 575 7 260 18 810 1194,3%
Yes certainly there is kind of saturation, limits on resources, railway and highway system in place etc.. But still just 8% growth for several years means tens of millions plus /even with moderate growth of GDP there is an only slight correlation with the growth of air traffic /. In absolute numbers, top 100 airports in China add 124 mil passengers in 2017, growth by12,5%.
The main problem I see is the efficiency of the system, airspace usage, government (local and central) subsidies, pilot shortage. In several cases delay in airport replace (Qingdao, Xiamen, Dalian). But compare it to India, where the infrastructure is hardly matching demand, with similar political disruptions to the system / here I count infrastructure planning failure and inactivity, subsidies to defunct national carrier etc./
*For those, focused on details: I'm aware, that some airports in the table didn't exist in 2000/2010 so the figures are from their predecessors serving the cities. Be generous. In China some projects are very fast, so I was as well the victim of the old underground scheme in Google maps and had to travel backward two stations to new underground line 11 to Shenzen airport this September.