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Viman
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Reuters: Iran airlines need 500 planes, official mulls Sukhoi SSJ 100

Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:12 pm

DUBAI (Reuters) - Iran needs some 500 planes and would likely back buying the Sukhoi Superjet 100 if Russia is willing to sell them to its airlines, Iranian news agencies reported the country’s top civil aviation official as saying on Wednesday.

Iran needs to upgrade its ageing passenger fleet and is seeking to avert U.S. sanctions on Tehran.

Most modern commercial planes have more than 10 percent in U.S. parts, the threshold for needing U.S. Treasury approval. But Russian officials have been reported as saying Sukhoi is working on reducing the number of U.S. parts in the hopes of winning an Iranian order.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran ... SKBN1OB1JT
Last edited by SQ22 on Sat Dec 15, 2018 10:42 am, edited 2 times in total.
Reason: Titele was misleading
 
vahancrazy
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:24 pm

If US foreign politic is closer towards Iran, for sure Russian (and perhaps Chinese) airplanes have an opportunity. Real issue is: can they supply so many aircrafts in a reasonable time and provide a decent assistance when needed?
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:28 pm

Let's see: 175 SSJ100's manufactured in 10+ years, with western (and US) technology/components.

If Iran wants 500 of them with Russian only content, at the current rate and after re-engineering to remove everything non-Russian, they'll get the order fulfilled around 2070-2080...

Good luck with that.
 
Cush
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:46 pm

What stops a manufacturer from taking certain unidentifiable parts and re-branding them as a 'domestic' product?
Fly me to the moon let me play among the stars.
 
Armodeen
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:49 pm

Cush wrote:
What stops a manufacturer from taking certain unidentifiable parts and re-branding them as a 'domestic' product?


If you are China, nothing!
 
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KanaHawaii
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:55 pm

Sounds like a dogwhistle announcement to try and make something happen with the SuperJet. Truth be told, Iranians are highly suspicious of any Russian built plane and would rather fly on some old derelict western plane instead. Has to do with the amount of crashes Russian planes have had in Iran since the Revolution. That is why Iran Air will not just buy Russian equipment to upgrade.
 
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Polot
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:00 pm

Nowhere in that article does it say Iran is planning on buying 500 Superjets. Don’t equate need for 500 planes with “we will buy 500 Superjets.”
 
EBJ68
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:13 pm

Where is the money going to come from to make that large a purchase in what appears to be a short time (next two to five years?)?
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:14 pm

What's to stop someone from buying up all of the retiring MD-80/90/717 aircraft and selling them to Iran? Those frames can pretty much fly forever with the right maintenance.
 
Flaps
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:30 pm

If Iran were to buy 500 SSJ they would be better off building them themselves under license on a production line in Iran. All politics aside, Iran has proven itself to be quite capable when it comes to keeping aging aircraft flying. A lot of that skill could transfer over to production with Russian help. If they were to build the SSJ themselves they might be able to manufacture a considerable amount of parts in house and potentially avoid the support problems that plague Russian designs.
 
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Erebus
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:33 pm

EBJ68 wrote:
Where is the money going to come from to make that large a purchase in what appears to be a short time (next two to five years?)?


Can't say much about the timeline. For the price, Interjet was said to have gotten a deal "with the capital cost of 10 aircraft about equal with the pre-delivery payment for one A320." So 500 aircraft might cost less than 50 A320s. :shock:
 
drdisque
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:38 pm

Yeah:

1. Literally where would 500 Iranian planes fly? How many airliners are currently active in Iran? 100?
2. I don't think Sukhoi could build 500 SSJ's in a decade if they wanted to.
3. I agree that this is both throwing Russian aerospace a bone by giving the product a vote of confidence and also a ploy to get some negotiating leverage with owners and lessors of used Western aircraft that Iranian airlines are currently trying to acquire ("if you don't give us a good deal we'll go buy SSJ's instead").
 
dtw9
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:46 pm

Other than one Person have any of you even bothered to read the article. It’s states that Iran has a need for 500 aircraft not 500 SSJ’s. Russia hopes to get an order for “UP TO 100 aircraft”!!!
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:23 pm

drdisque wrote:
1. Literally where would 500 Iranian planes fly? How many airliners are currently active in Iran? 100?


212, by my count, and there's little question that air travel demand would explode in the event that sanctions ended and airlines could run in the same way they can in the rest of the region. Iran is a large, mountainous country of over 80 million people. Compare Turkey, which has almost exactly the same population and is of similar size, and has well over 500 civil airliners in service.

The current sanctions regime is pure self-defeating stupidity on the part of the U.S. government. Iran's current government is a bad actor, but so are many others with which we're all too happy to do business, and the sanctions just serve to entrench the current regime in place.
 
ME720
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:12 pm

AT least Iranian people will be able to fly on safe aircraft domestically and beyond.
It is criminal to deprive a whole population of safe air travel.
 
luckyone
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:17 pm

ME720 wrote:
AT least Iranian people will be able to fly on safe aircraft domestically and beyond.
It is criminal to deprive a whole population of safe air travel.

One could argue that the Iranian people have the ability to un-deprive themselves of that very issue when they vote.
 
texl1649
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:36 pm

55 to 60 percent of the SSJ 100 is "western" and the proposed SSJ100R is far from an accomplished/ready to offer/deliver version. It's possible, of course, for an all Sino-Russo version to be built by 2022 or so, but I doubt Iran is really lining up hard/concrete financing to order many dozens (let alone hundreds) of such a notional aircraft today. They have...a few other fiscal challenges.

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... rn-content

Having reconsidered the situation, Moscow has decided to proceed with the indigenization of the Superjet to a greater extent than initially planned. After 2021, when SCAC introduces a version of the airplane without U.S. parts known as the SSJ100R, the companyplans to pursue a version devoid of all Western components, according to sources within UAC.

The Thales-integrated avionics package would give way to one from local manufacturer KRET. The airplane’s PowerJet SaM.146 engines would be replaced by the Aviadvigatel PD-9, effectively a scaled version of the PD-14 developed for the Irkut MC-21 narrowbody jetliner. Apart from indigenization, this, coupled with a new composite wing, would reduce fuel burn by between 5 percent and 8 percent.

Nevertheless, creation of a completely indigenous Superjet represents a challenge, given the fact that the majority of the airplane’s onboard systems come from the West. In theory, SCAC could consider Chinese parts, but the People’s Republic produces few appropriate for installation in the Superjet.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:50 pm

seabosdca wrote:
drdisque wrote:
1. Literally where would 500 Iranian planes fly? How many airliners are currently active in Iran? 100?


212, by my count, and there's little question that air travel demand would explode in the event that sanctions ended and airlines could run in the same way they can in the rest of the region. Iran is a large, mountainous country of over 80 million people. Compare Turkey, which has almost exactly the same population and is of similar size, and has well over 500 civil airliners in service.

The current sanctions regime is pure self-defeating stupidity on the part of the U.S. government. Iran's current government is a bad actor, but so are many others with which we're all too happy to do business, and the sanctions just serve to entrench the current regime in place.



Turkey may have 500 civil airliners on the register, I take your word or that, but not 500, 100 seat a/c. This seems ridiculous to me, they need widebodies and 737/A320 size planes, not just 100seat a/c.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
jagraham
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:53 pm

The Superjet team should be able to manufacture all the parts domestically; the only real problem is the flightdeck. I would presume some SU-27 variant has an acceptable flightdeck. Aviadvigatel can certainly produce a competent engine (noise and pollution and hours on wing aside).

As for why they can't sell the SSJ-100 as is, see the ongoing situation with the Huawei CFO. USA will stretch out its arms pretty far to enforce an embargo. Western SSJ suppliers would have to cut off UAC if they took an Iranian order.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Fri Dec 14, 2018 5:20 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Turkey may have 500 civil airliners on the register, I take your word or that, but not 500, 100 seat a/c. This seems ridiculous to me, they need widebodies and 737/A320 size planes, not just 100seat a/c.


As others have pointed out, the linked article does not say Iran is looking at 500 Superjets. It says Iran needs 500 new aircraft, and is looking at an order for up to 100 Superjets.

Almost every aircraft currently on the Iranian register is out of date. Between replacements for those aircraft (~250, as a bunch of A300s would be replaced by more narrowbodies) and latent capacity demand, I think 500 is a reasonable or even conservative estimate of Iran's overall need for aircraft.
 
PPVRA
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Fri Dec 14, 2018 5:31 pm

vahancrazy wrote:
and provide a decent assistance when needed?


Maybe that’s why Iran wants 500 of them.....


J/k read previous post, it’s 500 aircraft not 500 SSJs....
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tjcab
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Fri Dec 14, 2018 6:04 pm

seabosdca wrote:
drdisque wrote:
Iran's current government is a bad actor, but so are many others with which we're all too happy to do business, and the sanctions just serve to entrench the current regime in place.


hope you are including the US in there. We shall not elaborate as this is not a political forum.
 
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Fri Dec 14, 2018 6:48 pm

Armodeen wrote:
Cush wrote:
What stops a manufacturer from taking certain unidentifiable parts and re-branding them as a 'domestic' product?


If you are China, nothing!

China did do that. Then the DoD correctly noted they we're ITAR parts and fined Western companies for exporting without the correct license.

To export to Airbus is commerce department. To export to Russia is DoD delegating, after review and conditions to Commerce. If you break the rules, as Pratt did with helicopter engines, the DoD pulls the commerce approval and you then go through them where every single assembly required an export. Ugh... I did that for six months and hated it.

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Devilfish
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Fri Dec 14, 2018 7:16 pm

Of course, Russia would only be too willing to sell the SSJ100 to Iran if they could.....

Image
https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/1280 ... it%3Dscale

.....as well as Irkut's MC21. Comac too, would be delighted to offer the C919...and might even arrange a good financing deal :yes:


texl1649 wrote:
55 to 60 percent of the SSJ 100 is "western" and the proposed SSJ100R is far from an accomplished/ready to offer/deliver version. It's possible, of course, for an all Sino-Russo version to be built by 2022 or so,

jagraham wrote:
The Superjet team should be able to manufacture all the parts domestically; the only real problem is the flightdeck. I would presume some SU-27 variant has an acceptable flightdeck. Aviadvigatel can certainly produce a competent engine (noise and pollution and hours on wing aside).

I wonder to what extent said "Russification" would affect the SSJ's "reliability" given how the parts supply and technical support already are? :scratchchin:
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
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Slash787
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Fri Dec 14, 2018 7:26 pm

500? This is even beyond my imagination, what is the country’s top civil aviation smoking? I honestly don't know what they can actually do in having some new aircrafts situation. I guess persuade IRKUT or COMAC but well they themselves are not moving forward.
 
Wayfarer515
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:38 pm

Devilfish wrote:
Of course, Russia would only be too willing to sell the SSJ100 to Iran if they could.....

Image
https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/1280 ... it%3Dscale

.....as well as Irkut's MC21. Comac too, would be delighted to offer the C919...and might even arrange a good financing deal :yes:


texl1649 wrote:
55 to 60 percent of the SSJ 100 is "western" and the proposed SSJ100R is far from an accomplished/ready to offer/deliver version. It's possible, of course, for an all Sino-Russo version to be built by 2022 or so,

jagraham wrote:
The Superjet team should be able to manufacture all the parts domestically; the only real problem is the flightdeck. I would presume some SU-27 variant has an acceptable flightdeck. Aviadvigatel can certainly produce a competent engine (noise and pollution and hours on wing aside).

I wonder to what extent said "Russification" would affect the SSJ's "reliability" given how the parts supply and technical support already are? :scratchchin:


I really doubt that 55% of the SSJ can be of USA origin, it should be somewhere around 12%-15% IIRC.

Regarding the reliability side. Dumping SAFRAN as engine partner would only be of benefit for UAC, after many complains they have just agreed to modify that joke of combustion chamber they put on the Sam146, something Saturn told them many times they could fix themselves bu that SAFRAN did not agreed to.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:52 pm

Wayfarer515 wrote:
Devilfish wrote:
Of course, Russia would only be too willing to sell the SSJ100 to Iran if they could.....

Image
https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/1280 ... it%3Dscale

.....as well as Irkut's MC21. Comac too, would be delighted to offer the C919...and might even arrange a good financing deal :yes:


texl1649 wrote:
55 to 60 percent of the SSJ 100 is "western" and the proposed SSJ100R is far from an accomplished/ready to offer/deliver version. It's possible, of course, for an all Sino-Russo version to be built by 2022 or so,

jagraham wrote:
The Superjet team should be able to manufacture all the parts domestically; the only real problem is the flightdeck. I would presume some SU-27 variant has an acceptable flightdeck. Aviadvigatel can certainly produce a competent engine (noise and pollution and hours on wing aside).

I wonder to what extent said "Russification" would affect the SSJ's "reliability" given how the parts supply and technical support already are? :scratchchin:


I really doubt that 55% of the SSJ can be of USA origin, it should be somewhere around 12%-15% IIRC.

Regarding the reliability side. Dumping SAFRAN as engine partner would only be of benefit for UAC, after many complains they have just agreed to modify that joke of combustion chamber they put on the Sam146, something Saturn told them many times they could fix themselves bu that SAFRAN did not agreed to.

texl1649 said 55-60% was western, not American. Which is correct:
[quote]Western content now accounts for between 55 percent and 60 percent of an SSJ100’s unit cost.[quote] https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/air-transport/2018-09-10/sukhoi-uac-planning-superjet-no-western-content

While not all American, many European companies are on the SSJ (Safran is partner on the engine and supplies the landing gear, Zodiac - now Safran - supplies the fuel system, Liebherr the air conditioning); and they will not jeopardize their american subsidies and market for a few planes sold to Iran.
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Fri Dec 14, 2018 9:20 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
texl1649 said 55-60% was western, not American. Which is correct:


However nothing stops Russia or China from developing similar parts to the western ones. They might not be exactly the same, but they work. And as Sukhoi is Russian, it's up to them to license those parts for this aircraft which they will gladly do.

It seems on the old western aircraft in Iranian service, the Iranians do a lot of reverse engineering. Any part they can't legally obtain, they make it themselves. They know what it's supposed to look like from the original part and then make another one. This is illegal, but they still do it anyway. It's condoned because it's safer than not replacing the parts at all.

By the way, how many percent of the MC21 and C-919 will be western? Will those planes be an option for Iran?
 
vahancrazy
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Fri Dec 14, 2018 9:35 pm

PPVRA wrote:
vahancrazy wrote:
and provide a decent assistance when needed?


Maybe that’s why Iran wants 500 of them.....


J/k read previous post, it’s 500 aircraft not 500 SSJs....



Thank you for quoting, indeed I focused on title which is missleading but the thread is clear!
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Fri Dec 14, 2018 9:39 pm

PatrickZ80 wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
texl1649 said 55-60% was western, not American. Which is correct:


However nothing stops Russia or China from developing similar parts to the western ones. They might not be exactly the same, but they work. And as Sukhoi is Russian, it's up to them to license those parts for this aircraft which they will gladly do.

It seems on the old western aircraft in Iranian service, the Iranians do a lot of reverse engineering. Any part they can't legally obtain, they make it themselves. They know what it's supposed to look like from the original part and then make another one. This is illegal, but they still do it anyway. It's condoned because it's safer than not replacing the parts at all.

By the way, how many percent of the MC21 and C-919 will be western? Will those planes be an option for Iran?

Western parts need to be replaced.

Much of the new stuff is heavy on software. Just as a porche automobile needs to be connected to a porche computer, so do Western parts.

Russia or China will have to develop many components. If they cheat, than the license to export Western parts to them can be pulled ending production.

There must be a Russified plane to export. It can be done, now ask yourself why they put in Western parts in the first place.

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JoeCanuck
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Fri Dec 14, 2018 9:49 pm

lightsaber wrote:
PatrickZ80 wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
texl1649 said 55-60% was western, not American. Which is correct:


However nothing stops Russia or China from developing similar parts to the western ones. They might not be exactly the same, but they work. And as Sukhoi is Russian, it's up to them to license those parts for this aircraft which they will gladly do.

It seems on the old western aircraft in Iranian service, the Iranians do a lot of reverse engineering. Any part they can't legally obtain, they make it themselves. They know what it's supposed to look like from the original part and then make another one. This is illegal, but they still do it anyway. It's condoned because it's safer than not replacing the parts at all.

By the way, how many percent of the MC21 and C-919 will be western? Will those planes be an option for Iran?

Western parts need to be replaced.

Much of the new stuff is heavy on software. Just as a porche automobile needs to be connected to a porche computer, so do Western parts.

Russia or China will have to develop many components. If they cheat, than the license to export Western parts to them can be pulled ending production.

There must be a Russified plane to export. It can be done, now ask yourself why they put in Western parts in the first place.

Lightsaber


As far as I can tell, the really difficult bits are engines and avionics. Russia can build both. While they would be at least a generation or two behind western products, that's probably good enough for Iranian SSJ's. As usual, the biggest problem isn't the design and engineering of Russian products, it's the production and support.
What the...?
 
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LTU932
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Fri Dec 14, 2018 11:28 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Much of the new stuff is heavy on software. Just as a porche automobile needs to be connected to a porche computer, so do Western parts.

Russia or China will have to develop many components. If they cheat, than the license to export Western parts to them can be pulled ending production.

There must be a Russified plane to export. It can be done, now ask yourself why they put in Western parts in the first place.

Lightsaber
Knowing export control restrictions on US hardware and software, I'm sure Sukhoi's US suppliers can pull the plug on this quicker than you think. Sukhoi would have to assure the companies (and through them indirectly the federal government) that they won't deliver an aircraft with US parts to Iran, or else it's game over.

Either way, this purchase of 500 SSJs ain't gonna get even to the assembly stage. This deal will die, or take a change of tenant in the White House to even have a chance at coming to fruition. There's no guarantee that things will change by the time President Trump leaves the Oval Office, whether that's on January 20 2021 or, which seems more likely, January 20 2025. Let's also not forget that, before sanctions got reactivated, the Iranian airlines had problems with the financing of their brandnew aircraft prior to delivery IIRC.
Sometimes the only thing more dangerous than a question is an answer. - Ferengi Rule of Acquisition 208
 
texl1649
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Fri Dec 14, 2018 11:45 pm

Replacing 10 percent of components is costly, and challenging; just look at A320 vs NEO. Sukhoi builds great planes but they, like many, don’t have a history of delivering on time/early.

It’s a bit absurd to claim a pending commercial “deal” for up to many dozens of SSJ100R’s for delivery from 2022. The “heart” of this aircraft are many ‘western’ systems protected by various intellectual property rights of manufacturers with interests in global product rights. It makes little sense to pretend they can all be easily/simply copied at will for a notional multi-billion dollar Iranian purchase.
 
downdata
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Fri Dec 14, 2018 11:49 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
Let's see: 175 SSJ100's manufactured in 10+ years, with western (and US) technology/components.

If Iran wants 500 of them with Russian only content, at the current rate and after re-engineering to remove everything non-Russian, they'll get the order fulfilled around 2070-2080...

Good luck with that.


Eh. Technology moves faster than you think. Airplane was invented little over 100 year ago.
 
ME720
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Sat Dec 15, 2018 6:13 am

luckyone wrote:
ME720 wrote:
AT least Iranian people will be able to fly on safe aircraft domestically and beyond.
It is criminal to deprive a whole population of safe air travel.

One could argue that the Iranian people have the ability to un-deprive themselves of that very issue when they vote.


Yeah, that’s the American approach: allies May chop of people and dissolve them at their embassies.. no one blocks their civilian and military orders.. while others can t as much buy spare parts.

This is not off topic. One Can not discuss Iranian aviation without referring to the criminal sanctions.
And if that bothers some, maybe ban discussing Iranian aviation all together..
 
avier
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Sat Dec 15, 2018 6:29 am

Polot wrote:
Nowhere in that article does it say Iran is planning on buying 500 Superjets. Don’t equate need for 500 planes with “we will buy 500 Superjets.”


If that's the case, can the thread title please be changed.

I was surprised to see a large order for an unpopular a/c, but it's not the case. So it's a misleading title.

This is click bait.
 
raylee67
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Sat Dec 15, 2018 9:59 am

If IranAir feels OK to fly Russian planes, they would have bought Tu-204 and Il-96 long ago like Air Koryo and Cubana. But they rather flew the 747-100 and A300B at that time.
319/20/21 332/33 342/43/45 359/51 388 707 717 732/36/3G/38/39 74R/42/43/44/4E/48 757 762/63 772/7L/73/7W 788/89 D10 M80 135/40/45 175/90 DH1/4 CRJ/R7 L10
AY LH OU SR BA FI
AA DL UA NW AC CP WS FL NK PD
CI NH SQ KA CX JL BR OZ TG KE CA CZ NZ JQ RS
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Reuters: Iran airlines need 500 planes, official mulls Sukhoi SSJ 100

Sat Dec 15, 2018 2:58 pm

As mentioned above Russia already planned a Russified SSJ100 with PD-9 engines and KRET avionics, and most likely assembled in China. It is not that SSJ100R has to go back to pullies and cables as suggested here. It will still be glass cockpit and fly-by-wire.

I believe An-148s sold to Air Koryo are in compliance with trade restrictions. Even non-Russian vendors may offer ITAR compliant avionics, may not be as sophisticated as full versions, but gets the job done.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Sat Dec 15, 2018 4:00 pm

PatrickZ80 wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
texl1649 said 55-60% was western, not American. Which is correct:


However nothing stops Russia or China from developing similar parts to the western ones. They might not be exactly the same, but they work. And as Sukhoi is Russian, it's up to them to license those parts for this aircraft which they will gladly do.

It seems on the old western aircraft in Iranian service, the Iranians do a lot of reverse engineering. Any part they can't legally obtain, they make it themselves. They know what it's supposed to look like from the original part and then make another one. This is illegal, but they still do it anyway. It's condoned because it's safer than not replacing the parts at all.

By the way, how many percent of the MC21 and C-919 will be western? Will those planes be an option for Iran?

Which is exactly what Sukhoi is aiming at with the "Russified" SSJ100R.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Sat Dec 15, 2018 4:02 pm

downdata wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
Let's see: 175 SSJ100's manufactured in 10+ years, with western (and US) technology/components.

If Iran wants 500 of them with Russian only content, at the current rate and after re-engineering to remove everything non-Russian, they'll get the order fulfilled around 2070-2080...

Good luck with that.


Eh. Technology moves faster than you think. Airplane was invented little over 100 year ago.

Technology moves fast (even in aerospace); Russian assembly lines not that much these days.
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Sat Dec 15, 2018 9:10 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
Technology moves fast (even in aerospace); Russian assembly lines not that much these days.


Isn't that because of lack of orders? I mean, they produce what is being ordered but since that's not much they don't produce a lot. I'm sure if they got large orders they got the ability to upscale, but so far that hasn't been the case.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Sat Dec 15, 2018 9:28 pm

JoeCanuck wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
PatrickZ80 wrote:

However nothing stops Russia or China from developing similar parts to the western ones. They might not be exactly the same, but they work. And as Sukhoi is Russian, it's up to them to license those parts for this aircraft which they will gladly do.

It seems on the old western aircraft in Iranian service, the Iranians do a lot of reverse engineering. Any part they can't legally obtain, they make it themselves. They know what it's supposed to look like from the original part and then make another one. This is illegal, but they still do it anyway. It's condoned because it's safer than not replacing the parts at all.

By the way, how many percent of the MC21 and C-919 will be western? Will those planes be an option for Iran?

Western parts need to be replaced.

Much of the new stuff is heavy on software. Just as a porche automobile needs to be connected to a porche computer, so do Western parts.

Russia or China will have to develop many components. If they cheat, than the license to export Western parts to them can be pulled ending production.

There must be a Russified plane to export. It can be done, now ask yourself why they put in Western parts in the first place.

Lightsaber


As far as I can tell, the really difficult bits are engines and avionics. Russia can build both. While they would be at least a generation or two behind western products, that's probably good enough for Iranian SSJ's. As usual, the biggest problem isn't the design and engineering of Russian products, it's the production and support.

Russia can do it

As already noted, this will take as much effort as a NEO, but for a less efficient and more maintenance intensive design. I personally have been impressed by many Russian engineered concept.

But their minds mindset fails on in service support. Why? I haven't figured it out. For example, I've seen Russian engines that have components that must be sawed apart for overhaul. On one hand, very light and compact doing away with flanges, seals, and fasteners. On the other, re-welds limit service life after overhaul (lesser fatigue life) and because you must saw, you only get to open and reclose the housing once. This limits engine economic life to one major overhaul. Or say 25,000 FC to 34,000 FC. YMMV.

That is ok for a widebody, but not an RJ that needs 60,000 to 80,000 LOV of FC (flight cycles) to sell.

Even the Westernized SEJ is having trouble selling. I couldn't imagine picking a plane that cost $200 to $500 more per flight. That is my estimate of how much more the Russified SEJ will cost per average RJ mission.

So the 500 SDJ in the title? :no:

But it makes for a great headline.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
JoeCanuck
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Sun Dec 16, 2018 1:23 am

lightsaber wrote:
JoeCanuck wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Western parts need to be replaced.

Much of the new stuff is heavy on software. Just as a porche automobile needs to be connected to a porche computer, so do Western parts.

Russia or China will have to develop many components. If they cheat, than the license to export Western parts to them can be pulled ending production.

There must be a Russified plane to export. It can be done, now ask yourself why they put in Western parts in the first place.

Lightsaber


As far as I can tell, the really difficult bits are engines and avionics. Russia can build both. While they would be at least a generation or two behind western products, that's probably good enough for Iranian SSJ's. As usual, the biggest problem isn't the design and engineering of Russian products, it's the production and support.

Russia can do it

As already noted, this will take as much effort as a NEO, but for a less efficient and more maintenance intensive design. I personally have been impressed by many Russian engineered concept.

But their minds mindset fails on in service support. Why? I haven't figured it out. For example, I've seen Russian engines that have components that must be sawed apart for overhaul. On one hand, very light and compact doing away with flanges, seals, and fasteners. On the other, re-welds limit service life after overhaul (lesser fatigue life) and because you must saw, you only get to open and reclose the housing once. This limits engine economic life to one major overhaul. Or say 25,000 FC to 34,000 FC. YMMV.

That is ok for a widebody, but not an RJ that needs 60,000 to 80,000 LOV of FC (flight cycles) to sell.

Even the Westernized SEJ is having trouble selling. I couldn't imagine picking a plane that cost $200 to $500 more per flight. That is my estimate of how much more the Russified SEJ will cost per average RJ mission.

So the 500 SDJ in the title? :no:

But it makes for a great headline.

Lightsaber


It's such a shame, really. The Russians have some very interesting designs. It's amazing what they can create out of almost nothing. There isn't much they make that you can't service in a mud bog with vice grips, haywire and duct tape...and you probably don't need the vice grips. But for some reason, (probably at least a few reasons), the concept of after sales service just doesn't sink in.

It is such critical component of of western sales agreements, and can be the difference between a sale and walking away empty handed. I venture that lack of after sales support has killed more Russian projects that anything else.

As for Iran, I've long thought that they should get get Antonov to put a factory in Iran. They have reverse engineered aircraft at least that complex and it would be a good start on a proper domestic airline industry. The An-148 seems like a pretty good aircraft for them.
What the...?
 
Kiwirob
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Sun Dec 16, 2018 5:57 am

texl1649 wrote:
55 to 60 percent of the SSJ 100 is "western" and the proposed SSJ100R is far from an accomplished/ready to offer/deliver version. It's possible, of course, for an all Sino-Russo version to be built by 2022 or so, but I doubt Iran is really lining up hard/concrete financing to order many dozens (let alone hundreds) of such a notional aircraft today. They have...a few other fiscal challenges.

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... rn-content

Having reconsidered the situation, Moscow has decided to proceed with the indigenization of the Superjet to a greater extent than initially planned. After 2021, when SCAC introduces a version of the airplane without U.S. parts known as the SSJ100R, the companyplans to pursue a version devoid of all Western components, according to sources within UAC.

The Thales-integrated avionics package would give way to one from local manufacturer KRET. The airplane’s PowerJet SaM.146 engines would be replaced by the Aviadvigatel PD-9, effectively a scaled version of the PD-14 developed for the Irkut MC-21 narrowbody jetliner. Apart from indigenization, this, coupled with a new composite wing, would reduce fuel burn by between 5 percent and 8 percent.

Nevertheless, creation of a completely indigenous Superjet represents a challenge, given the fact that the majority of the airplane’s onboard systems come from the West. In theory, SCAC could consider Chinese parts, but the People’s Republic produces few appropriate for installation in the Superjet.


They only have to get rid of the US part of the western components, the European bit is mostly ok.
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Reuters: Iran airlines need 500 planes, official mulls Sukhoi SSJ 100

Sun Dec 16, 2018 6:44 am

I would definitely not be surprised to be see them buy some SSJ's. Soviet era aircraft weren't exactly known for their reliability but SSJ has improved a lot since those days and is far from the death trap people make it out to be. It did have a major incident in 2012 where it crashed into a mountain with no survivors but the captain ignored terrain warnings so that was pilot error, not an aircraft malfunction. The SSJ is generally a safe plane, especially by Russian standards and if Iran wants some, Russia will be happy to get a big customer with Iran's huge appetite for new aircraft in the coming years.
 
Blerg
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Re: Reuters: Iran airlines need 500 planes, official mulls Sukhoi SSJ 100

Sun Dec 16, 2018 7:49 am

If I am not mistaken, only IR operates modern regional aircraft (Atr) and if I remember correctly these are mostly used on domestic flights outside of Tehran. Iran Air, Qeshm and Mahan could all use the SSJ which would enable them to both launch new flights and increase existing frequencies by reducing capacity.

By the way, do any of the Iranian airlines offer connections from their regional network onto their international one?
 
SXDFC
Posts: 1966
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2007 6:07 pm

Re: Reuters: Iran airlines need 500 planes, official mulls Sukhoi SSJ 100

Sun Dec 16, 2018 8:44 am

Could IR purchase the C919?
 
Flyingsottsman
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Re: Reuters: Iran airlines need 500 planes, official mulls Sukhoi SSJ 100

Sun Dec 16, 2018 9:08 am

The one thing I don't understand is how is Meehan Air able to fly A340s and yet IR cant get even 2nd hand planes
 
Apprentice
Posts: 777
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Re: Iran planning to buy 500 Sukhoi Superjet 100

Sun Dec 16, 2018 12:33 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
Let's see: 175 SSJ100's manufactured in 10+ years, with western (and US) technology/components.

If Iran wants 500 of them with Russian only content, at the current rate and after re-engineering to remove everything non-Russian, they'll get the order fulfilled around 2070-2080...

Good luck with that.


No serious. Do not take in account that Russia is building planes, big quantities, since 1930 or before.They got where and enough engineering to avoid using US’s tecnólogy

They may use several sites to build that plane at the same time. Including a site at Iran, is both consider it, good bussines.

In the other hand, You don’t take 500 planes in one month! It is a large assimilation period, last planes most probably arrive when severalof the first 100 are out of service!
And how long for Russia to have 500 Tu-154, Tu-134 or Yak42, starting at 0. (Or after first production plane)
Does any one please indicate me how many years for different companies to arrive from 0 to 500 B737 or A320?

Rgd#
“An4; IL18; IL6; Tu5; D10; MD11; MD83; B32; B34: B37; B744; B748; B752; B763; B772; B773; B77W; A320; A332; A333; A342; A343.
"A NO" is a positive answer., "DON'T KNOW" is not. My Tutor (a wise man)
“CUBANA” 90 years Flying”
 
Apprentice
Posts: 777
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Re: Reuters: Iran airlines need 500 planes, official mulls Sukhoi SSJ 100

Sun Dec 16, 2018 12:37 pm

Which Westwern parts are used on plane?
Rgds
“An4; IL18; IL6; Tu5; D10; MD11; MD83; B32; B34: B37; B744; B748; B752; B763; B772; B773; B77W; A320; A332; A333; A342; A343.
"A NO" is a positive answer., "DON'T KNOW" is not. My Tutor (a wise man)
“CUBANA” 90 years Flying”

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