Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
Cush wrote:What stops a manufacturer from taking certain unidentifiable parts and re-branding them as a 'domestic' product?
EBJ68 wrote:Where is the money going to come from to make that large a purchase in what appears to be a short time (next two to five years?)?
drdisque wrote:1. Literally where would 500 Iranian planes fly? How many airliners are currently active in Iran? 100?
ME720 wrote:AT least Iranian people will be able to fly on safe aircraft domestically and beyond.
It is criminal to deprive a whole population of safe air travel.
Having reconsidered the situation, Moscow has decided to proceed with the indigenization of the Superjet to a greater extent than initially planned. After 2021, when SCAC introduces a version of the airplane without U.S. parts known as the SSJ100R, the companyplans to pursue a version devoid of all Western components, according to sources within UAC.
The Thales-integrated avionics package would give way to one from local manufacturer KRET. The airplane’s PowerJet SaM.146 engines would be replaced by the Aviadvigatel PD-9, effectively a scaled version of the PD-14 developed for the Irkut MC-21 narrowbody jetliner. Apart from indigenization, this, coupled with a new composite wing, would reduce fuel burn by between 5 percent and 8 percent.
Nevertheless, creation of a completely indigenous Superjet represents a challenge, given the fact that the majority of the airplane’s onboard systems come from the West. In theory, SCAC could consider Chinese parts, but the People’s Republic produces few appropriate for installation in the Superjet.
seabosdca wrote:drdisque wrote:1. Literally where would 500 Iranian planes fly? How many airliners are currently active in Iran? 100?
212, by my count, and there's little question that air travel demand would explode in the event that sanctions ended and airlines could run in the same way they can in the rest of the region. Iran is a large, mountainous country of over 80 million people. Compare Turkey, which has almost exactly the same population and is of similar size, and has well over 500 civil airliners in service.
The current sanctions regime is pure self-defeating stupidity on the part of the U.S. government. Iran's current government is a bad actor, but so are many others with which we're all too happy to do business, and the sanctions just serve to entrench the current regime in place.
Dutchy wrote:Turkey may have 500 civil airliners on the register, I take your word or that, but not 500, 100 seat a/c. This seems ridiculous to me, they need widebodies and 737/A320 size planes, not just 100seat a/c.
vahancrazy wrote:and provide a decent assistance when needed?
seabosdca wrote:drdisque wrote:Iran's current government is a bad actor, but so are many others with which we're all too happy to do business, and the sanctions just serve to entrench the current regime in place.
Armodeen wrote:Cush wrote:What stops a manufacturer from taking certain unidentifiable parts and re-branding them as a 'domestic' product?
If you are China, nothing!
texl1649 wrote:55 to 60 percent of the SSJ 100 is "western" and the proposed SSJ100R is far from an accomplished/ready to offer/deliver version. It's possible, of course, for an all Sino-Russo version to be built by 2022 or so,
jagraham wrote:The Superjet team should be able to manufacture all the parts domestically; the only real problem is the flightdeck. I would presume some SU-27 variant has an acceptable flightdeck. Aviadvigatel can certainly produce a competent engine (noise and pollution and hours on wing aside).
Devilfish wrote:Of course, Russia would only be too willing to sell the SSJ100 to Iran if they could.....
https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/1280 ... it%3Dscale
.....as well as Irkut's MC21. Comac too, would be delighted to offer the C919...and might even arrange a good financing deal
texl1649 wrote:55 to 60 percent of the SSJ 100 is "western" and the proposed SSJ100R is far from an accomplished/ready to offer/deliver version. It's possible, of course, for an all Sino-Russo version to be built by 2022 or so,jagraham wrote:The Superjet team should be able to manufacture all the parts domestically; the only real problem is the flightdeck. I would presume some SU-27 variant has an acceptable flightdeck. Aviadvigatel can certainly produce a competent engine (noise and pollution and hours on wing aside).
I wonder to what extent said "Russification" would affect the SSJ's "reliability" given how the parts supply and technical support already are?
Wayfarer515 wrote:Devilfish wrote:Of course, Russia would only be too willing to sell the SSJ100 to Iran if they could.....
https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/1280 ... it%3Dscale
.....as well as Irkut's MC21. Comac too, would be delighted to offer the C919...and might even arrange a good financing deal
texl1649 wrote:55 to 60 percent of the SSJ 100 is "western" and the proposed SSJ100R is far from an accomplished/ready to offer/deliver version. It's possible, of course, for an all Sino-Russo version to be built by 2022 or so,jagraham wrote:The Superjet team should be able to manufacture all the parts domestically; the only real problem is the flightdeck. I would presume some SU-27 variant has an acceptable flightdeck. Aviadvigatel can certainly produce a competent engine (noise and pollution and hours on wing aside).
I wonder to what extent said "Russification" would affect the SSJ's "reliability" given how the parts supply and technical support already are?
I really doubt that 55% of the SSJ can be of USA origin, it should be somewhere around 12%-15% IIRC.
Regarding the reliability side. Dumping SAFRAN as engine partner would only be of benefit for UAC, after many complains they have just agreed to modify that joke of combustion chamber they put on the Sam146, something Saturn told them many times they could fix themselves bu that SAFRAN did not agreed to.
WayexTDI wrote:texl1649 said 55-60% was western, not American. Which is correct:
PPVRA wrote:vahancrazy wrote:and provide a decent assistance when needed?
Maybe that’s why Iran wants 500 of them.....
J/k read previous post, it’s 500 aircraft not 500 SSJs....
PatrickZ80 wrote:WayexTDI wrote:texl1649 said 55-60% was western, not American. Which is correct:
However nothing stops Russia or China from developing similar parts to the western ones. They might not be exactly the same, but they work. And as Sukhoi is Russian, it's up to them to license those parts for this aircraft which they will gladly do.
It seems on the old western aircraft in Iranian service, the Iranians do a lot of reverse engineering. Any part they can't legally obtain, they make it themselves. They know what it's supposed to look like from the original part and then make another one. This is illegal, but they still do it anyway. It's condoned because it's safer than not replacing the parts at all.
By the way, how many percent of the MC21 and C-919 will be western? Will those planes be an option for Iran?
lightsaber wrote:PatrickZ80 wrote:WayexTDI wrote:texl1649 said 55-60% was western, not American. Which is correct:
However nothing stops Russia or China from developing similar parts to the western ones. They might not be exactly the same, but they work. And as Sukhoi is Russian, it's up to them to license those parts for this aircraft which they will gladly do.
It seems on the old western aircraft in Iranian service, the Iranians do a lot of reverse engineering. Any part they can't legally obtain, they make it themselves. They know what it's supposed to look like from the original part and then make another one. This is illegal, but they still do it anyway. It's condoned because it's safer than not replacing the parts at all.
By the way, how many percent of the MC21 and C-919 will be western? Will those planes be an option for Iran?
Western parts need to be replaced.
Much of the new stuff is heavy on software. Just as a porche automobile needs to be connected to a porche computer, so do Western parts.
Russia or China will have to develop many components. If they cheat, than the license to export Western parts to them can be pulled ending production.
There must be a Russified plane to export. It can be done, now ask yourself why they put in Western parts in the first place.
Lightsaber
lightsaber wrote:Knowing export control restrictions on US hardware and software, I'm sure Sukhoi's US suppliers can pull the plug on this quicker than you think. Sukhoi would have to assure the companies (and through them indirectly the federal government) that they won't deliver an aircraft with US parts to Iran, or else it's game over.Much of the new stuff is heavy on software. Just as a porche automobile needs to be connected to a porche computer, so do Western parts.
Russia or China will have to develop many components. If they cheat, than the license to export Western parts to them can be pulled ending production.
There must be a Russified plane to export. It can be done, now ask yourself why they put in Western parts in the first place.
Lightsaber
WayexTDI wrote:Let's see: 175 SSJ100's manufactured in 10+ years, with western (and US) technology/components.
If Iran wants 500 of them with Russian only content, at the current rate and after re-engineering to remove everything non-Russian, they'll get the order fulfilled around 2070-2080...
Good luck with that.
luckyone wrote:ME720 wrote:AT least Iranian people will be able to fly on safe aircraft domestically and beyond.
It is criminal to deprive a whole population of safe air travel.
One could argue that the Iranian people have the ability to un-deprive themselves of that very issue when they vote.
Polot wrote:Nowhere in that article does it say Iran is planning on buying 500 Superjets. Don’t equate need for 500 planes with “we will buy 500 Superjets.”
PatrickZ80 wrote:WayexTDI wrote:texl1649 said 55-60% was western, not American. Which is correct:
However nothing stops Russia or China from developing similar parts to the western ones. They might not be exactly the same, but they work. And as Sukhoi is Russian, it's up to them to license those parts for this aircraft which they will gladly do.
It seems on the old western aircraft in Iranian service, the Iranians do a lot of reverse engineering. Any part they can't legally obtain, they make it themselves. They know what it's supposed to look like from the original part and then make another one. This is illegal, but they still do it anyway. It's condoned because it's safer than not replacing the parts at all.
By the way, how many percent of the MC21 and C-919 will be western? Will those planes be an option for Iran?
downdata wrote:WayexTDI wrote:Let's see: 175 SSJ100's manufactured in 10+ years, with western (and US) technology/components.
If Iran wants 500 of them with Russian only content, at the current rate and after re-engineering to remove everything non-Russian, they'll get the order fulfilled around 2070-2080...
Good luck with that.
Eh. Technology moves faster than you think. Airplane was invented little over 100 year ago.
WayexTDI wrote:Technology moves fast (even in aerospace); Russian assembly lines not that much these days.
JoeCanuck wrote:lightsaber wrote:PatrickZ80 wrote:
However nothing stops Russia or China from developing similar parts to the western ones. They might not be exactly the same, but they work. And as Sukhoi is Russian, it's up to them to license those parts for this aircraft which they will gladly do.
It seems on the old western aircraft in Iranian service, the Iranians do a lot of reverse engineering. Any part they can't legally obtain, they make it themselves. They know what it's supposed to look like from the original part and then make another one. This is illegal, but they still do it anyway. It's condoned because it's safer than not replacing the parts at all.
By the way, how many percent of the MC21 and C-919 will be western? Will those planes be an option for Iran?
Western parts need to be replaced.
Much of the new stuff is heavy on software. Just as a porche automobile needs to be connected to a porche computer, so do Western parts.
Russia or China will have to develop many components. If they cheat, than the license to export Western parts to them can be pulled ending production.
There must be a Russified plane to export. It can be done, now ask yourself why they put in Western parts in the first place.
Lightsaber
As far as I can tell, the really difficult bits are engines and avionics. Russia can build both. While they would be at least a generation or two behind western products, that's probably good enough for Iranian SSJ's. As usual, the biggest problem isn't the design and engineering of Russian products, it's the production and support.
lightsaber wrote:JoeCanuck wrote:lightsaber wrote:Western parts need to be replaced.
Much of the new stuff is heavy on software. Just as a porche automobile needs to be connected to a porche computer, so do Western parts.
Russia or China will have to develop many components. If they cheat, than the license to export Western parts to them can be pulled ending production.
There must be a Russified plane to export. It can be done, now ask yourself why they put in Western parts in the first place.
Lightsaber
As far as I can tell, the really difficult bits are engines and avionics. Russia can build both. While they would be at least a generation or two behind western products, that's probably good enough for Iranian SSJ's. As usual, the biggest problem isn't the design and engineering of Russian products, it's the production and support.
Russia can do it
As already noted, this will take as much effort as a NEO, but for a less efficient and more maintenance intensive design. I personally have been impressed by many Russian engineered concept.
But their minds mindset fails on in service support. Why? I haven't figured it out. For example, I've seen Russian engines that have components that must be sawed apart for overhaul. On one hand, very light and compact doing away with flanges, seals, and fasteners. On the other, re-welds limit service life after overhaul (lesser fatigue life) and because you must saw, you only get to open and reclose the housing once. This limits engine economic life to one major overhaul. Or say 25,000 FC to 34,000 FC. YMMV.
That is ok for a widebody, but not an RJ that needs 60,000 to 80,000 LOV of FC (flight cycles) to sell.
Even the Westernized SEJ is having trouble selling. I couldn't imagine picking a plane that cost $200 to $500 more per flight. That is my estimate of how much more the Russified SEJ will cost per average RJ mission.
So the 500 SDJ in the title? :no:
But it makes for a great headline.
Lightsaber
texl1649 wrote:55 to 60 percent of the SSJ 100 is "western" and the proposed SSJ100R is far from an accomplished/ready to offer/deliver version. It's possible, of course, for an all Sino-Russo version to be built by 2022 or so, but I doubt Iran is really lining up hard/concrete financing to order many dozens (let alone hundreds) of such a notional aircraft today. They have...a few other fiscal challenges.
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... rn-contentHaving reconsidered the situation, Moscow has decided to proceed with the indigenization of the Superjet to a greater extent than initially planned. After 2021, when SCAC introduces a version of the airplane without U.S. parts known as the SSJ100R, the companyplans to pursue a version devoid of all Western components, according to sources within UAC.
The Thales-integrated avionics package would give way to one from local manufacturer KRET. The airplane’s PowerJet SaM.146 engines would be replaced by the Aviadvigatel PD-9, effectively a scaled version of the PD-14 developed for the Irkut MC-21 narrowbody jetliner. Apart from indigenization, this, coupled with a new composite wing, would reduce fuel burn by between 5 percent and 8 percent.
Nevertheless, creation of a completely indigenous Superjet represents a challenge, given the fact that the majority of the airplane’s onboard systems come from the West. In theory, SCAC could consider Chinese parts, but the People’s Republic produces few appropriate for installation in the Superjet.
WayexTDI wrote:Let's see: 175 SSJ100's manufactured in 10+ years, with western (and US) technology/components.
If Iran wants 500 of them with Russian only content, at the current rate and after re-engineering to remove everything non-Russian, they'll get the order fulfilled around 2070-2080...
Good luck with that.