rainaviation
Posts: 188
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:28 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/16/2018:AS Drops ATL-PDX;DL Drops ASE-LAX, Adds MEX-MSP;UA Dops SFO-MIA, Adds SFO-YYZ

Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:52 am

lavalampluva wrote:
*DL MEX-MSP JUN 0>0.8[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0]

They’ll be using an A319. I believe that’s what NW used the last time.


I believe you are right. This is very much anticipated news, however I would love to see Aeromexico operate the route. Either way, very good news for connecting traffic to South America from MSP.
 
carljanderson
Posts: 140
Joined: Sun Apr 12, 2015 5:29 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/16/2018:AS Drops ATL-PDX;DL Drops ASE-LAX, Adds MEX-MSP;UA Dops SFO-MIA, Adds SFO-YYZ

Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:57 am

enilria wrote:
BenflysDTW wrote:
Where did the slot come from for MSP-MEX? It’s about time. It was going to come back. did they sacrifice a slot from ATL perhaps?

Maybe one of the slots offered to WN or AS rolled back?


Didn't DL/AM get a few MEX slots back from the Phase 2 Slot proceedings?
 
rainaviation
Posts: 188
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:28 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/16/2018:AS Drops ATL-PDX;DL Drops ASE-LAX, Adds MEX-MSP;UA Dops SFO-MIA, Adds SFO-YYZ

Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:58 am

lavalampluva wrote:
EarlyLateORD wrote:
MSP-MEX accomplishes a lot. Access to connections to smaller Mexican destinations as well as Central and South America. Not an insignificant number of corporate connections. Archeological tourism. Beach tourism.

Mexico City is quite a destination in its own right with two of the top 15 restaurants in the world, as many as France and the entire US have. Pujol is off the charters amazing…. My wife and I spent our 5th wedding anniversary there,

Our local paper, the Star Tribune, did a really lovely article on D.F. last month

http://www.startribune.com/in-mexico-ci ... 501036932/

Adam

It’s an 8:00am departure from MSP. I feel that they’ll miss a lot of the connecting pax at MSP. That’s probably why they’re using the smaller A319.


You would be surprised with the amount of CRJ's that come into MSP before 7:15 AM from places like GFK, FSD, DSM. Delta likes to fly late nighters from MSP, in order to keep the tarmac at MSP less crowded. Then bring the planes back early the next morning. They will get some connecting...
 
crescent
Posts: 106
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2018 3:09 am

Re: OAG Changes 12/16/2018:AS Drops ATL-PDX;DL Drops ASE-LAX, Adds MEX-MSP;UA Dops SFO-MIA, Adds SFO-YYZ

Mon Dec 17, 2018 4:49 am

The way UA scheduled SFO-MIA was not optimized for connections- 830a departure from SFO caught connectors from Hawaii but not most of the Asia flights (only exception TPE). A 550p departure from MIA has no feed entering it and connects to nothing but the ANZ flights arriving in SF after 9pm.

I think it's just hard to run a connecting operation to SFO from so far away when the second legs are not red-eyes, as they are for MIA to LatAm.
 
evank516
Posts: 1935
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Re: OAG Changes 12/16/2018:AS Drops ATL-PDX;DL Drops ASE-LAX, Adds MEX-MSP;UA Dops SFO-MIA, Adds SFO-YYZ

Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:51 pm

AA's inaugural LGA-DAB flight is priced over $1100 in coach, but subsequent weeks are reasonable. Schedule is similar to B6 but the flight leaves LGA about 30 mins to an hour later at 9:00 AM. 35 minute turn scheduled in DAB. I'll be interested to see if they get the yield that B6 didn't.
 
upperdeckfan
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Re: OAG Changes 12/16/2018:AS Drops ATL-PDX;DL Drops ASE-LAX, Adds MEX-MSP;UA Dops SFO-MIA, Adds SFO-YYZ

Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:02 pm

jayunited wrote:
flybry wrote:
UA dropping SFO to MIA? That's crazy!


It is crazy and ridiculous that we can't make California to South Florida work.


I assume you work for UA so I understand why you bring so much feeling into what's a business decision. SFO-MIA is a long route and feed at the MIA end was near to zero.

AA takes advantage of MIA's location getting feed from the Caribean and SouthAm, that's the key why UA can't compete with AA.
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M83, M87, M88,310,319,320,321,332,
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CR7, CR9,CRK, E175,E190,ATR42,
DSH8, CS1,CS3
 
drdisque
Posts: 1032
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Re: OAG Changes 12/16/2018:AS Drops ATL-PDX;DL Drops ASE-LAX, Adds MEX-MSP;UA Dops SFO-MIA, Adds SFO-YYZ

Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:06 pm

United1 wrote:
Rdh3e wrote:
United1 wrote:
Sorry I just reread what I wrote and I wasn't as clear as I could have been earlier.

YYZ-SFO is carved out of the ATI agreement as there is no competitor on it (WS doesn't serve the market.) UA and AC can (and do) codeshare on the route but they can't co-ordinate schedules or pricing.

Are you sure the carveouts apply to schedule coordination? I read somewhere they only applied to pricing.


I can't find anything online right now specific to schedule coordination. Pricing and schedule coordination are typically the two things you need ATI for however.

http://www.competitionbureau.gc.ca/eic/ ... 03507.html

pricing is definitely verboten....


Scheduling and capacity is also forbidden to coordinate on, but seriously, how hard is it? UA sees what AC has filed, and they schedule around it. AC already likely has flights to all their major banks at YYZ, so you just have to schedule around your own banks at SFO. You don't NEED to coordinate on schedule and capacity on a short-haul route.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7229
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: OAG Changes 12/16/2018:AS Drops ATL-PDX;DL Drops ASE-LAX, Adds MEX-MSP;UA Dops SFO-MIA, Adds SFO-YYZ

Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:21 pm

rainaviation wrote:
You would be surprised with the amount of CRJ's that come into MSP before 7:15 AM from places like GFK, FSD, DSM. Delta likes to fly late nighters from MSP, in order to keep the tarmac at MSP less crowded. Then bring the planes back early the next morning. They will get some connecting...
rainaviation wrote:
lavalampluva wrote:
*DL MEX-MSP JUN 0>0.8[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0]

They’ll be using an A319. I believe that’s what NW used the last time.


I believe you are right. This is very much anticipated news, however I would love to see Aeromexico operate the route. Either way, very good news for connecting traffic to South America from MSP.

The MSP-MEX flight timed similar to the long-standing DTW-MEX flight that enables a same-day turn for the airplane, to enable early-connections on to the XXX-MEX flight, and an afternoon departure from MEX to arrive back in time to connect to the evening departure bank.

With the recent AM build-up at DTW, DL has been operating the morning departures from DTW that turn back, and AM has been operating the morning departures from Mexico cities that depart DTW in the afternoon to turn back to Mexico.

I assume this helps with aircraft utilization, crew scheduling, and the ability to not need to layover crews and airplanes in the respective destinations.
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1392
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/16/2018:AS Drops ATL-PDX;DL Drops ASE-LAX, Adds MEX-MSP;UA Dops SFO-MIA, Adds SFO-YYZ

Mon Dec 17, 2018 4:13 pm

RamblinMan wrote:
remymartin11 wrote:
PHX-RDU N/S absolutely fabulous. Adios CLT and DFW connections. WN unbearable for flight that long. Bravo AA

I suppose you always fly in F if its available? Otherwise this statement makes absolutely no sense
Yeah, I never found coach on AA to be anything to write home about.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: OAG Changes 12/16/2018:AS Drops ATL-PDX;DL Drops ASE-LAX, Adds MEX-MSP;UA Dops SFO-MIA, Adds SFO-YYZ

Mon Dec 17, 2018 4:14 pm

I see lots of changes for April only on AA. Do we expect these to eventually be rolled forward to May when those schedules are finalized or this to be a one month only thing?
 
klakzky123
Posts: 643
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Re: OAG Changes 12/16/2018:AS Drops ATL-PDX;DL Drops ASE-LAX, Adds MEX-MSP;UA Dops SFO-MIA, Adds SFO-YYZ

Mon Dec 17, 2018 4:26 pm

drdisque wrote:
United1 wrote:
Rdh3e wrote:
Are you sure the carveouts apply to schedule coordination? I read somewhere they only applied to pricing.


I can't find anything online right now specific to schedule coordination. Pricing and schedule coordination are typically the two things you need ATI for however.

http://www.competitionbureau.gc.ca/eic/ ... 03507.html

pricing is definitely verboten....


Scheduling and capacity is also forbidden to coordinate on, but seriously, how hard is it? UA sees what AC has filed, and they schedule around it. AC already likely has flights to all their major banks at YYZ, so you just have to schedule around your own banks at SFO. You don't NEED to coordinate on schedule and capacity on a short-haul route.


But they haven't formed a JV so UA currently would earn a lot more selling tickets on their own metal than codesharing on AC metal. They are incentivized to maximize revenue on their own flight rather than selling tickets for AC's flights. So even if they did some sort of pseudo-coordination, financially its a dumb idea. Without the revenue (and possibly cost) sharing agreement, selling a ticket on an AC flight between the US and Canada is probably not worth very much relative to their own flight. So they're launching their own flight because they see a lot of demand on that route and want some of the pie.
 
drdisque
Posts: 1032
Joined: Mon Mar 26, 2007 9:57 am

Re: OAG Changes 12/16/2018:AS Drops ATL-PDX;DL Drops ASE-LAX, Adds MEX-MSP;UA Dops SFO-MIA, Adds SFO-YYZ

Mon Dec 17, 2018 4:45 pm

Keep in mind that only the SFO-YYZ market itself is carved out from Revenue sharing.

If someone flies HNL-SFO-YYZ on any combination of UA or AC, it still goes into the JV.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7229
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: OAG Changes 12/16/2018:AS Drops ATL-PDX;DL Drops ASE-LAX, Adds MEX-MSP;UA Dops SFO-MIA, Adds SFO-YYZ

Mon Dec 17, 2018 5:04 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
I see lots of changes for April only on AA. Do we expect these to eventually be rolled forward to May when those schedules are finalized or this to be a one month only thing?

One thing to note about April schedule year-over-year changes is the impact of the shift of Easter Holiday.
In 2018 Easter fell on April 1. In 2019 Easter falls on April 21st. This does have an impact on some markets, in particular business travel may be down in the days immediately before or after the holiday. Leisure travel may be up in the week before and after aligning with school breaks, etc. A later Easter Holiday can have the impact of extending the Spring break travel period/demand for beach/sun markets and even fill-in some late-season ski season demand.

Most colleges have set spring break weeks that don't shift year-over-year. K-12 schools are a mix, in some areas they have a set spring break week, in other instances they float it to coincide with the Easter Holiday weekend.
 
United1
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Re: OAG Changes 12/16/2018:AS Drops ATL-PDX;DL Drops ASE-LAX, Adds MEX-MSP;UA Dops SFO-MIA, Adds SFO-YYZ

Mon Dec 17, 2018 5:39 pm

drdisque wrote:
Keep in mind that only the SFO-YYZ market itself is carved out from Revenue sharing.

If someone flies HNL-SFO-YYZ on any combination of UA or AC, it still goes into the JV.


UA and AC do not have a JV on north american flights...so while they can coordinate schedules and pricing in most markets, under the terms of ATI, there is no revenue sharing.

AC, UA and LH group do have a tranatlantic JV but even then revenue earned on carved out city pairs would not go into the JV. As an example if a passenger flew SFO-IAH-AMS all of the revenue from that PNR would go into the JV. If that same passenger flew SFO-YYZ-AMS the revenue from YYZ-AMS would go to the JV and SFO-YYZs portion would go to the operating carrier.

UAs entry into this market really is about capturing revenue vs handing it off to AC...
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
FSDan
Posts: 2423
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/16/2018:AS Drops ATL-PDX;DL Drops ASE-LAX, Adds MEX-MSP;UA Dops SFO-MIA, Adds SFO-YYZ

Mon Dec 17, 2018 6:55 pm

jayunited wrote:
flybry wrote:
UA dropping SFO to MIA? That's crazy!


How is it UA can't make this route work as strong as we are at SFO AA is equally as strong at MIA but somehow AA is able to make the route work with I believe 6 or 7 daily nonstops during the summer and at least one maybe 2 of those flights are widebodies.


AA is 3-4x daily on MIA-SFO, with 1 flight sometimes on the 763 (largely utilization flying for an aircraft that would otherwise sit at MIA all day between South America flights). But it's mostly 738s and 321s. I'm guessing there's just not that much Bay Area originating traffic bound for MIA where UA would have the advantage. AA likely has the advantage with traffic originating in South Florida bound for SFO, and obviously with Bay Area traffic transiting in MIA and connecting to Latin America and the Caribbean. South Florida passengers bound for Asia have more geographically convenient options: IAH, DFW, MSP, ORD, DTW, ATL.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
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KLMatSJC
Posts: 445
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Re: OAG Changes 12/16/2018:AS Drops ATL-PDX;DL Drops ASE-LAX, Adds MEX-MSP;UA Dops SFO-MIA, Adds SFO-YYZ

Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:13 pm

CriticalPoint wrote:
as739x wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:

I guess I should have clarified. Will AC codeshare on the new UA flights? To me that is complementary vs competitive. The AC/UA JV does not cover all routes. For example both UA and AC operate YOW-EWR yet they are forbidden from codesharing with each other on the route.


It would not surprise me to see a AC reduction coming. This would help reduce gate usage on the G concourse, which in turn helps UA with the additional flights that are being added. Granted being star hub to hub, but 8 daily flights with 2 being widebodies is a lot of lift.


YYZ is a pre clear airport it never made since to me why they used G in SFO it’s a waste of valuable space.


There's really nowhere else to put them. I could see them possibly taking a gate in D after AA moves out and AS moves in fully.
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MIAFLLPBIFlyer
Posts: 343
Joined: Mon Jul 03, 2017 8:25 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/16/2018:AS Drops ATL-PDX;DL Drops ASE-LAX, Adds MEX-MSP;UA Dops SFO-MIA, Adds SFO-YYZ

Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:15 pm

jplatts wrote:
jayunited wrote:
flybry wrote:
UA dropping SFO to MIA? That's crazy!


Kirby came over from AA he should know how to compete in this market against AA instead he gives up completely which means once this route is canceled UA's only nonstop route from the entire state of California to Southern Florida's east coast is a single nonstop SFO-FLL. It is crazy and ridiculous that we can't make California to South Florida work.


WN might be able to make OAK-FLL nonstop service work since there are frequent flyers who are loyal to WN in both the San Francisco Bay Area and South Florida. WN would also be able to offer connections to destinations Caribbean from the San Francisco Bay Area through FLL if WN adds FLL-OAK nonstop service.

There are some U.S. destinations that already have nonstop service to FLL on both WN and B6 such as ALB, ATL, AUS, BUF, CHI, BDL, JAX, LAS, BNA, PHL, PVD, RDU, and DCA. WN also has more market share at FLL than B6 does.

WN might be willing to add OAK-FLL nonstop service if there is enough demand for OAK-FLL nonstop service, even if WN adding OAK-FLL would be in competition with B6 SFO-FLL nonstop service.


Only problem is while UA has dropped SFO-MIA they are still (at least for now) still on SFO-FLL. That has been reduced to a single daily though. Was twice daily in peak season not long ago.
 
MIAFLLPBIFlyer
Posts: 343
Joined: Mon Jul 03, 2017 8:25 pm

Re: OAG Changes 12/16/2018:AS Drops ATL-PDX;DL Drops ASE-LAX, Adds MEX-MSP;UA Dops SFO-MIA, Adds SFO-YYZ

Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:20 pm

MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
jplatts wrote:
jayunited wrote:

Kirby came over from AA he should know how to compete in this market against AA instead he gives up completely which means once this route is canceled UA's only nonstop route from the entire state of California to Southern Florida's east coast is a single nonstop SFO-FLL. It is crazy and ridiculous that we can't make California to South Florida work.


WN might be able to make OAK-FLL nonstop service work since there are frequent flyers who are loyal to WN in both the San Francisco Bay Area and South Florida. WN would also be able to offer connections to destinations Caribbean from the San Francisco Bay Area through FLL if WN adds FLL-OAK nonstop service.

There are some U.S. destinations that already have nonstop service to FLL on both WN and B6 such as ALB, ATL, AUS, BUF, CHI, BDL, JAX, LAS, BNA, PHL, PVD, RDU, and DCA. WN also has more market share at FLL than B6 does.

WN might be willing to add OAK-FLL nonstop service if there is enough demand for OAK-FLL nonstop service, even if WN adding OAK-FLL would be in competition with B6 SFO-FLL nonstop service.


Only problem is while UA has dropped SFO-MIA they are still (at least for now) still on SFO-FLL. That has been reduced to a single daily though. Was twice daily in peak season not long ago.


Also worth noting UA chased AS off the SFO-FLL route along with several other former VX routes. Not sure if the SFO-MIA route (which was resumed the same time UA began SFO-TPA) was meant less to compete with AA or feed SFO, than to pressure AS after the VX merger off SFO-FLL. I wonder because this incarnation of SFO-MIA didn't last long at all. It seemingly wasn't given a chance.

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