A blast from the past! The SDAA assured us that operations at the single-runway airport would be constrained at 260,000 operations per year, and at 300,000 no further growth would be possible.
Your assertions here are completely incorrect. They indicated they would cap out by 2030, which is about dead on. The dip was due to the recession and there was zero discussion about average capacity. I don't recall anyone saying anything about aircraft capacity other than a professor who got it all completely wrong.
Passengers are at 24 million for the year 2018, which is slightly
above the bright red line which was supposed to be the worst-case scenario when the SH&E study was done in 2004.
Trust me, I read the SH&E report half a dozen times. It's in the forecast report. Unfortunately, the report has been removed from the Airport website. But you are correct, aircraft capacity was hardly mentioned in the public presentations until Professor Carson made a big deal about it.
The forecast was built around an average of 100 passengers out of 130 seats in the year 2030.
The SH&E study said they would have constrained operations somewhere between 2016 and 2030.https://econweb.ucsd.edu/~rcarson/Airport_6perPage.pdf
Professor Carson's presentation
Airport Site Selection Decision Document May 2006 wrote:
Rejection of four remote sites.
Remaining at the existing SDIA would have serious consequences. In the absence of a new airport, air travelers at SDIA will experience congestion
and delays, which are likely to reach the point where flight restrictions are imposed. As the airport becomes more constrained, airfares are likely to rise, with an estimated fare premium of approximately 20 percent may result. Although these consequences are serious, they do not point to any of the four remote sites as the solution. Projected passenger demand numbers for all of the remote sites are no more than the current capacity
of Lindbergh Field.
This market analysis draws the following conclusions:
The four remote sites, Campo/Boulevard Site, Imperial County Desert Site, Borrego Springs Study Site, and March Air Reserve Base, each have such severe limitations regarding their accessibility and are not acceptable solutions to meet the market requirements of San Diego County air travelers.
Last edited by PacoMartin
on Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:51 am, edited 1 time in total.