San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

PacoMartin · Mon Oct 28, 2019 10:41 am

PacoMartin wrote:
Logically it would make more sense to downgrade the PHX Hawaiian Airlines jet from an A330 to an A321neo instead of SAN A330 to an A321neo.

Actually I should have read the 3rd quarter report first. They announced service for three new routes with its A321neo fleet:
◦ Four-times-weekly service between Maui’s Kahului Airport (OGG) and Las Vegas’ McCarran International Airport (LAS) beginning December 15, 2019
◦ Thrice-weekly nonstop service between Honolulu (HNL) and Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (SEA) starting January 7, 2020, supplementing existing daily A330-200 service
◦ Seasonal winter service between Maui (OGG) and Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) from December 14, 2019 through January 5, 2020, supplementing existing daily A330-200 service

There is no mention of any plans for San Diego

The 18th and final A321neo is due to arrive in 2020. Three A330 leases are due to expire in 2020, and another in 2022. HA is due to receive two 787s in 2021, three in 2022, and one in 2023, with the four remainder arriving later.

hawaiian717 · Mon Oct 28, 2019 6:10 pm

Load factors don’t tell the whole story. If they’re selling lots of cheap fares to get the plane that full, then it might make sense to move to the A321neo which can cover its costs selling fewer seats at a higher fare. There is also opportunity cost to consider; freeing up the SAN A330 allows them to use it somewhere else.

I also suspect the move is anticipation of Southwest entering the market. WN won’t be just stimulating new demand but also fighting for the existing passengers on HA and AS. Which would mean having to push fares lower to keep the A330 full, going back to my first point.

tphuang · Wed Oct 30, 2019 1:44 pm

I am surprised this hasn't been posted here but Southwest is starting Hawaiian service in April.

PacoMartin · Wed Oct 30, 2019 1:59 pm

hawaiian717 wrote:
Load factors don’t tell the whole story. If they’re selling lots of cheap fares to get the plane that full, then it might make sense to move to the A321neo which can cover its costs selling fewer seats at a higher fare. There is also opportunity cost to consider; freeing up the SAN A330 allows them to use it somewhere else.

I also suspect the move is anticipation of Southwest entering the market. WN won’t be just stimulating new demand but also fighting for the existing passengers on HA and AS. Which would mean having to push fares lower to keep the A330 full, going back to my first point.

Of course!

However I figured they could sell cheap fares from Phoenix just as easily as SAN. If they are flying with load factors 20% lower, than HA is already struggling to compete with over 100 flights on AA B752s per month from PHX to Hawaii.

As far as opportunity costs, HA has started service from HNL to BOS and JFK by freeing up A330s. I am not sure how many other opportunities they are missing.

BTW I remember HA saying back in 2013 when they ordered the A321neos that they were going to replace the A330 to SAN with an A321neo to HNL and one to OGG. I haven't seen anything in writing recently. It is possible they changed their mind.

LeftcoastB6 · Wed Oct 30, 2019 3:56 pm

It’s official!!! And the announcement came sooner than expected. Might have to treat myself to a trip come April lol. WN fans at SAN have more to be excited about.

hawaiian717 · Wed Oct 30, 2019 4:28 pm

SAN-OGG starts April 14. SAN-HNL starts April 20. Schedules as they appear on the Southwest web site:

WN1295 SAN-OGG 0810-1110
WN1295 OGG-SAN 1255-2120

WN2081 SAN-HNL 1540-1845
WN2095 HNL-SAN 0935-1815

Interesting timing, HNL is a schedule opposite of HA and AS.

SANFan · Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:26 pm

Boy, I'm sure late to this party! Yeah, I had some issues arise this morning before I got online. Besides, I was under the impression this WN sked change was tomorrow, their usual sked-release day.

Interesting that they're starting OGG before HNL And yes, HA', you're right about those HNL times - different for sure. One thing is those HNL times will allow lots of potential connections from their network over SAN; I'll need to check sked's and see if there are connections to/from HNL to/from LIH and KOA for our flights. (Maybe over OGG if not HNL?)

And of course the is question mark in my mind is, will it actually happen? I assume it's all based on the MAX flying by then... how certain is that?

I am very glad to see it at least scheduled finally and am very happy to see 3 cx flying west (to HI) from SAN in 2020! (And even with a nice assortment of times to HNL!)

Aloha everyone!

PacoMartin wrote:
BTW I remember HA saying back in 2013 when they ordered the A321neos that they were going to replace the A330 to SAN with an A321neo to HNL and one to OGG. I haven't seen anything in writing recently. It is possible they changed their mind.

I'm confused. This is exactly what they've done. What do you mean by "they changed their mind"?

bb

PacoMartin · Wed Oct 30, 2019 9:15 pm

SANFan wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
BTW I remember HA saying back in 2013 when they ordered the A321neos that they were going to replace the A330 to SAN with an A321neo to HNL and one to OGG. I haven't seen anything in writing recently. It is possible they changed their mind.

I'm confused. This is exactly what they've done. What do you mean by "they changed their mind"?
bb

You say, "This is exactly what they've done" but how do you know that. I went online and HA was still flying the A330 this month, and I get an error code if I ask for January. I didn't see a news release that said that they were going to change equipment.

Plus I wrote that comment before the Southwest announcement of starting SAN-Hawaii flights this winter. Now that HA is competing with two Southwest jets it makes more sense that HA would switch to two A321neos.

hawaiian717 · Wed Oct 30, 2019 9:19 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
You say, "This is exactly what they've done" but how do you know that. I went online and HA was still flying the A330 this month, and I get an error code if I ask for January. I didn't see a news release that said that they were going to change equipment.

Airlineroute noted the change in the GDS back in July: https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... -jan-2020/

Silver1SWA · Wed Oct 30, 2019 9:25 pm

SANFan wrote:

And of course the is question mark in my mind is, will it actually happen? I assume it's all based on the MAX flying by then... how certain is that?

bb

I don’t think this depends on the MAX returning. I think what we saw was SAN pushed back to after the winter months to avoid those winter headwinds. I believe they’re capping bookings at 150 at first, perhaps to gather performance data much like they did with OAK at launch.

SANFan · Wed Oct 30, 2019 10:40 pm

Silver1SWA wrote:
SANFan wrote:
And of course the is question mark in my mind is, will it actually happen? I assume it's all based on the MAX flying by then... how certain is that?
bb

I don’t think this depends on the MAX returning. I think what we saw was SAN pushed back to after the winter months to avoid those winter headwinds. I believe they’re capping bookings at 150 at first, perhaps to gather performance data much like they did with OAK at launch.

Yeah, thank you R for this; I didn't think I heard news that the MAX was authorized to fly so I was a bit confused at first. As I've said elsewhere, I'm very happy to finally see WN making the decision to start SAN-HI whether or not they had the new plane in time. And your explanation and comments help explain the timing and I appreciate it.

hawaiian717 wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
You say, "This is exactly what they've done" but how do you know that. I went online and HA was still flying the A330 this month, and I get an error code if I ask for January. I didn't see a news release that said that they were going to change equipment.

Airlineroute noted the change in the GDS back in July: https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... -jan-2020/

Yes, many of us have been talking about the downgrade of SAN-HNL on this thread for a 2-3 months now, and I think there was some other confirmation of the fact besides the RoutesOnline article but I can't remember where. (Thanks for including the RoutesOnline-link, Hawaiian'.)

And Paco', I just went to book HNL-SAN on Jan 10 and the seat chart does show a 321.

bb

PacoMartin · Thu Oct 31, 2019 2:07 am

SANFan wrote:
And Paco', I just went to book HNL-SAN on Jan 10 and the seat chart does show a 321.

bb

I don't know why I got an error. I tried talking to the person on the chat, but she was no help.

Delta flies from HNL to four airports in Japan
NRT 3819 miles
NGO 4025 miles
KIX 4117 miles
FUK 4397 miles

Hawaiian flies from HNL to four airports in Japan
NRT 3819
HND 3853
KIX 4117
CTS 3751 (less than daily)

I think Hawaiian is going to retask the A330 to start competing flights to Fukuoka Airport (resumes 26 November 2019)

PacoMartin · Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:08 am

Three Hawaiian Airline A330 leases are due to expire in 2020, and another in 2022. HA is due to receive two 787s in 2021, three in 2022, and one in 2023, with the remainder arriving later.

I remember one business trip in particular where my turboprop from San Diego to LAX got caught in a storm until everyone was puking. Needless to say I missed my connection to Honolulu.

It is difficult for me to imagine San Diego having four flights to Hawaii (2 on Hawaiian, and 2 on Southwest).

SANFan · Thu Oct 31, 2019 4:02 pm

Regarding next summer's available service to Hawaii, I'm very happy to see what I believe is an all-time high number of flights.

The last time I saw stats on the ranking of mainland markets' air pax counts to the State of Hawaii, SAN held the 4th highest position, preceded only by LAX, SFO and SEA (I believe in that order) and followed by PDX and JFK. This was a few years ago so things certainly might've changed but other than a slight re-shuffling of those top 6 markets, I'm pretty sure SAN is still in the Top-5 ranking of air travelers from mainland markets to HI. So I feel SAN can support more air service to The Islands than we currently have.

By my count, next summer SAN will see:
HNL: 3 daily flights;
OGG: 4 daily flights;
LIH: 1 daily flight; and
KOA: 1 daily flight.
Total: 9 Daily flights!

bb

PacoMartin · Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:54 pm

SANFan wrote:
The last time I saw stats on the ranking of mainland markets' air pax counts to the State of Hawaii, SAN held the 4th highest position, preceded only by LAX, SFO and SEA (I believe in that order) and followed by PDX and JFK. This was a few years ago so things certainly might've changed but other than a slight re-shuffling of those top 6 markets, I'm pretty sure SAN is still in the Top-5 ranking of air travelers from mainland markets to HI.
bb

LAX, SFO, and SEA are still ranked #1, #2, and #3 with a big drop to the #4 position.

Flights origin pax & seats (April 2019) destination anywhere in state of Hawaii
1127 LAX 174,525 212,442
554 SFO 99,703 123,251
457 SEA 76,056 85,351
325 OAK 45,246 52,026 -- Southwest Airlines flights began so OAK has moved up
215 PDX 32,591 38,853
120 DEN 26,005 31,871
151 SAN 25,423 28,332
160 SJC 24,392 28,031
101 DFW 23,877 27,471
135 PHX 23,459 28,132
98 LAS 22,695 26,224
106 SMF 16,685 18,892
60 ORD 13,177 18,434
----
once per day
----
30 GUM 8,147 10,920
30 IAH 7,982 10,906
31 ATL 6,674 7,294
30 JFK 6,149 8,340
30 SLC 5,604 6,020
30 EWR 5,081 7,200
30 LGB 4,837 5,670

The table above is just a straight count of passengers. If you use origin and destination estimates sometimes airports like DEN drop since many people are simply changing planes there. Virtually nobody would change planes in San Diego on their way to Hawaii, so nearly everyone on a flight from SAN is driving to the SAN airport.

Alaska Airlines has seasonal flights from Seattle/Tacoma to Cancun, and of course, there are regular flights from LAX, SFO and DEN to Cancun. OAK, PDX, and SAN do not fly to Cancun.

Other than competition with Puerto Vallarta and Los Cabos the primary nonstop beach destination from OAK, PDX, and SAN is to Hawaii. From OAK you can drive to SFO, and from SAN you can drive to TIJ, but Hawaii is still the easiest choice

SANFan · Sat Nov 02, 2019 8:01 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
SANFan wrote:
The last time I saw stats on the ranking of mainland markets' air pax counts to the State of Hawaii, SAN held the 4th highest position, preceded only by LAX, SFO and SEA (I believe in that order) and followed by PDX and JFK. This was a few years ago so things certainly might've changed but other than a slight re-shuffling of those top 6 markets, I'm pretty sure SAN is still in the Top-5 ranking of air travelers from mainland markets to HI.
bb

LAX, SFO, and SEA are still ranked #1, #2, and #3 with a big drop to the #4 position.
Flights origin pax & seats (April 2019) destination anywhere in state of Hawaii: .....

Interesting. The reports that I saw in the past were from the State of Hawaii Tourist Bureau and I think I recall the annual numbers; if I remember correctly they were local traffic that didn't include connecting pax. What we see here are stats for a single month which is going to be biased toward or away from seasonality. SAN's Hawaii season is the summer which is pretty much the opposite of a lot of places which see most of their HI business in the winter.

In any case, this certainly gives an idea of how things stack up as far as mainland markets to Hawaii. (I'll try to find what I used to look at.)

I will continue to say that I think 9 daily flights to the Islands (in the summer especially, with no wide-bodies) will not be too many. (And again, I'm pretty sure WN will be using a fair number of their seats for connecting pax coming in from points beyond.)

bb

amadorE175 · Sat Nov 02, 2019 9:34 pm

SANFan wrote:

SAN has been mentioned a few times over on the HND-thread; most posters seem to expect SAN to be switched to HND by JL. However, one argument made for leaving the flight at NRT is the case of MNL: apparently JL carries a lot of traffic between SAN and MNL and this option would not be available via HND. And of course, as Kavok mentioned, other points in Asia are still much better served over Narita than Haneda.

As long as SAN sees no other service to Asia besides the JL flight, including no PR or KE, we are in a bit of a tough situation and it will be interesting to see what JL decides to do -- fly from SAN to NRT or HND? (Obviously JL is pleased to not have any competition from SAN to Asia but it seems like it will still be a hard decision for them.)

bb

From the HND slot discussion thread (starting with this post https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1429637&p=21767947#p21767383), doesn't look like JL will be moving SAN to HND, likely for the reasons you identify.

PacoMartin · Sun Nov 03, 2019 7:14 am

SANFan wrote:
Interesting. The reports that I saw in the past were from the State of Hawaii Tourist Bureau and I think I recall the annual numbers; if I remember correctly they were local traffic that didn't include connecting pax. What we see here are stats for a single month which is going to be biased toward or away from seasonality. SAN's Hawaii season is the summer which is pretty much the opposite of a lot of places which see most of their HI business in the winter.

In any case, this certainly gives an idea of how things stack up as far as mainland markets to Hawaii. (I'll try to find what I used to look at.)

I have no doubt that the report you read was true at the time.

Remember I was dumping April 2019 data, and Southwest began flights from OAK to Hawaii on March 18, 2019.

In December 2017 United increased their service from Denver to Hawaii. San Diego does not have the connecting pax to compete with this increase.
Kona: Seasonal service will increase to daily, year-round service starting Dec. 20
Lihue: Seasonal service will increase to daily, year-round service starting Dec. 20
Kahului (Maui): Seasonal service will increase to daily, year-round service starting Dec. 20
Honolulu: Daily year-round service will continue unchanged

Also in 2017 Hawaiian began A321neo flights from PDX to Maui to compete with Alaska airlines.

SANFan wrote:
I will continue to say that I think 9 daily flights to the Islands (in the summer especially, with no wide-bodies) will not be too many. (And again, I'm pretty sure WN will be using a fair number of their seats for connecting pax coming in from points beyond.)

bb

Repeating table Flights origin pax & seats (April 2019) destination anywhere in state of Hawaii

1127   LAX   174,525   212,442
 554   SFO    99,703   123,251
 457   SEA    76,056    85,351
 325   OAK    45,246    52,026
 215   PDX    32,591    38,853
 120   DEN    26,005    31,871
 151   SAN    25,423    28,332

It is certainly possible that SAN will surge ahead of PDX and DEN by next year. I think if it passes OAK will depend if you are counting origin and destination passengers or including transfers.

Southwest has slightly more physical room at the Oakland terminal right now to comfortably do transfers.
Oakland 124 daily departures from 15 gates on Southwest
San Diego 122 daily departures from 11 gates on Southwest
Los Angeles 125 daily departures from 12 gates on Southwest

The lack amenities in Terminal #1 at SAN coupled with how incredibly busy the gates are means that I have heard passengers swear that they will never transfer again at SAN on Southwest. In general 70% of Southwest passengers only fly one segment.

SANFan · Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:26 am

PacoMartin wrote:
SANFan wrote:
Interesting. The reports that I saw in the past were from the State of Hawaii Tourist Bureau and I think I recall the annual numbers; if I remember correctly they were local traffic that didn't include connecting pax. What we see here are stats for a single month which is going to be biased toward or away from seasonality. SAN's Hawaii season is the summer which is pretty much the opposite of a lot of places which see most of their HI business in the winter.

I have no doubt that the report you read was true at the time.

Remember I was dumping April 2019 data, and Southwest began flights from OAK to Hawaii on March 18, 2019.

San Diego 122 daily departures from 11 gates on Southwest

I have heard passengers swear that they will never transfer again at SAN on Southwest. In general 70% of Southwest passengers only fly one segment.

I repeat what you have quoted me saying at the top of this post: I want to see the 2018 totals (for the whole year) to get a feel for where SAN is in the complete rankings; that will even out seasonal variations in HI service. (It's also possible that the report I've seen in the past combined all Bay Area pax together; I simply don't remember for sure but I don't recall any stats for either SJC or OAK.)

Your count for WN numbers for SAN may be for a different time period but currently, WN uses 13 gates here -- 10 in the East rotunda (1, 1A, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10) and 3 in the West (11, 12, and 13.) So a minimum of 13 gates.

I've talked at length about the lack of direct connections between the East and West rotundas and how horrible that is so I certainly am not surprised at your comments regarding that. However, I would guess the majority of connections in SAN on WN take place within the East rotunda since that's where the majority of their gates (8 of them) are located so those people would at least not have to break security to make their connections and might be ok with doing so again on a future flight. I imagine SAN -- either the airport or WN -- would have the stats on exactly how many WN connecting pax have to break security during their connection at SAN and that is a figure I would love to see. Those poor people...

bb

PacoMartin · Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:38 am

SANFan wrote:
I repeat what you have quoted me saying at the top of this post: I want to see the 2018 totals (for the whole year) to get a feel for where SAN is in the complete rankings; that will even out seasonal variations in HI service.

I have trouble downloading too much data and manipulating it from the DOT website which is why I only download one month.
You are welcome to try it for all of 2018 limited to Hawaii and see if you have better luck. I only have an old computer.

https://www.transtats.bts.gov/DL_SelectFields.asp

PacoMartin · Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:50 am

I did try it for a different month (DEC 2018) and OAK was considerably lower since Southwest flights had not yet begun

Percentage of domestic passengers from Hawaiian airlines (all airports in HI) to US airports. Transfers are included.
25.7% LAX
13.4% SFO
9.5% SEA
6.4% LAS
4.0% PDX
4.0% PHX
3.2% SAN
2.9% ORD
2.9% SJC
2.6% DFW
2.6% GUM
2.6% JFK
2.5% IAH
2.4% DEN
2.4% ATL
2.3% OAK
10.5% other airports

PacoMartin · Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:34 am

SANFan wrote:
However, I would guess the majority of connections in SAN on WN take place within the East rotunda since that's where the majority of their gates (8 of them) are located so those people would at least not have to break security to make their connections and might be ok with doing so again on a future flight. I imagine SAN -- either the airport or WN -- would have the stats on exactly how many WN connecting pax have to break security during their connection at SAN and that is a figure I would love to see.

The OAG lists the following four airports as the "most connected" for Southwest Airlines
MDW: Chicago Midway
DAL: Dallas Love Field
LAS: Las Vegas
BWI: Baltimore Washington

That result is not particularly surprising. I think that most of the time that Southwest schedules connections in the Southwest at Las Vegas. The blogger that I mentioned deliberately refused the Las Vegas connection in favor of one in San Diego, thinking that SD was a prettier city and might be more pleasant to spend a few hours. Instead he found himself in an old very crowded terminal with no views and almost no facilities even if you broke security.

As I remember it there were only four dining options behind security Terminal 1 Gates 3-10. Pretty dull if you are there for a few hours.
The Counter: Custom Built Burgers
Bankers Hill Bar & Restaurant
Ciao Gourmet Market
Einstein Bros. Bagels

The top 25 Megahubs are those airports with the highest ratio of possible
scheduled connections to the number of destinations served by that airport.
Rank Airport
1 ORD
2 ATL
3 CLT
4 DFW
5 DEN
6 DTW
7 LAX
8 MSP
9 PHX
10 PHL
11 SEA
12 IAH
13 SLC
14 LGA
15 HNL
16 SFO
17 MDW
18 BOS
19 DAL
20 LAS
21 DCA
22 IAD
23 OGG
24 EWR
25 BWI

PacoMartin · Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:04 pm

The San Diego Regional Airport Authority plans to debut in January a fleet of free electric shuttles that will transport riders between the Old Town transit station and the airport. The estimated annual cost of $1.2 million will be borne by the Airport Authority..

The maximum passenger capacity for Lindbergh Field has been revised from 30 million to about 40 million , and is expected to occur around 2043.

I can't find any recent numbers, but some data from 2007 indicates that less than 4% of domestic passengers at SAN are awaiting connecting flights.

cheapflier · Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:10 am

PacoMartin wrote:
The San Diego Regional Airport Authority plans to debut in January a fleet of free electric shuttles that will transport riders between the Old Town transit station and the airport. The estimated annual cost of $1.2 million will be borne by the Airport Authority.

Interesting! I didn't realize they announced a start month yet. Last I'd heard it was going to be sometime in 2020. To provide some more background, SCRAA put together a Clean Transportation Plan. The goal is for 15% of everyone going to/from the airport (employees, passengers, FNF, etc.) to use transit by 2035. It was initially identified as a mid-term project (2025-ish) and possibly as a future MTS route.

Recently, they started telling Old Town hoteliers that the route was coming next year. I know the airport is getting some EV buses soon, but I was under the impression they'd go on the airport loop and employee shuttle route first. Then again, every time I've used the airport loop I'm usually the only customer, so why bother using a 35' bus? I think more buses are coming over the summer.

blacksoviet · Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:29 am

The 747-400 has returned to SAN for the winter season. How many gates are capable of handling a 747-400?

PSAatSAN4Ever · Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:39 pm

blacksoviet wrote:
The 747-400 has returned to SAN for the winter season. How many gates are capable of handling a 747-400?

Since only the international gates will ever see a 747 again, it's not really an issue. However, in all probability, only gates 48 and higher have the width necessary for the Queen of the Skies, since they are the "swing" gates for international service.

Yes, I know 21 and 22 have the room, but since they're not international anymore.

Terminal 1's banjo gates can barely fit all the 737's and A319/320/321's there as it is, so no, there won't be one there. And T2 East is just as constrained for parking.

JAAlbert · Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:50 am

hawaiian717 wrote:
Load factors don’t tell the whole story. If they’re selling lots of cheap fares to get the plane that full, then it might make sense to move to the A321neo which can cover its costs selling fewer seats at a higher fare.

Except that HA's fares, even on the 330 are not generally the cheapest offered. HA's non-stop SAN-HNL flight is generally $50 to $100 more expensive than other carriers, so I don't know how they can charge even higher fares on a 321.

I love Hawaiian Airlines when I am flying to Hawaii, but mainly due to the widebody aircraft. If I am stuck on a single aisle plane, I might as well try Alaska or SWA, or any of the other legacy carriers who fly single aisle aircraft to the islands these days.

SANFan · Fri Nov 08, 2019 6:05 am

I saw this article from the Korean Herald linked on another thread and I found it interesting. The link: http://m.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20191107000400
It's not a huge article; the title and first couple sentences sum it up pretty well:

Incheon airport signs MOU for route expansion in US
By Yonhap
Published : Nov 7, 2019 - 11:24

South Korea's main airport operator said Thursday it has signed an initial agreement with the Portland airport as it strives to attract new routes from North American carriers.
In an event held at a hotel in Incheon on Wednesday, Incheon International Airport Corp. signed a memorandum of understanding with Portland International Airport in the US state of Oregon to conduct joint marketing activities to lure new airline customers and their routes in the United States and Canada, IIAC said in a statement.

It appears to plan on targeting US and Canadian cx so perhaps that lessens the chance of SAN seeing any results (from KE?) due to these efforts but maybe it could help our chances -- with DL? I don't think it's just targeting PDX-SEL service but other U.S. gateways as well.

What do you folks think? Any different takes on what this could lead to? KE has been talked about a bit on this thread, as well as DL, so I know the possibility of KE and Korea are highly thought of here; does this offer optimism of any kind?

bb

blacksoviet · Fri Nov 08, 2019 6:52 am

PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
blacksoviet wrote:
The 747-400 has returned to SAN for the winter season. How many gates are capable of handling a 747-400?

Since only the international gates will ever see a 747 again, it's not really an issue. However, in all probability, only gates 48 and higher have the width necessary for the Queen of the Skies, since they are the "swing" gates for international service.

Yes, I know 21 and 22 have the room, but since they're not international anymore.

Terminal 1's banjo gates can barely fit all the 737's and A319/320/321's there as it is, so no, there won't be one there. And T2 East is just as constrained for parking.

Didn't United park a 747-100 at the banjo back in the 1980's?

cheapflier · Fri Nov 08, 2019 8:50 am

PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
blacksoviet wrote:
The 747-400 has returned to SAN for the winter season. How many gates are capable of handling a 747-400?

Since only the international gates will ever see a 747 again, it's not really an issue. However, in all probability, only gates 48 and higher have the width necessary for the Queen of the Skies, since they are the "swing" gates for international service.

Looking back at a recent photo, the biggest plane that can fit at 50 is the MAX/A321. I'd guess 4 of the 6 international gates can...47, 48, 49, 51.

77H · Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:23 am

JAAlbert wrote:
hawaiian717 wrote:
Load factors don’t tell the whole story. If they’re selling lots of cheap fares to get the plane that full, then it might make sense to move to the A321neo which can cover its costs selling fewer seats at a higher fare.

Except that HA's fares, even on the 330 are not generally the cheapest offered. HA's non-stop SAN-HNL flight is generally $50 to $100 more expensive than other carriers, so I don't know how they can charge even higher fares on a 321.

I love Hawaiian Airlines when I am flying to Hawaii, but mainly due to the widebody aircraft. If I am stuck on a single aisle plane, I might as well try Alaska or SWA, or any of the other legacy carriers who fly single aisle aircraft to the islands these days.

If flying on a WB is the primary force driving your purchasing decisions you can always take surface transport to LAX where HA maintains WB service to HNL and OGG.

If you prefer to avoid surface transport UA still flies a healthy number of WBs to HNL. Currently 1x from LAX and 3x from SFO, all 77As. It’s a short connecting flight on UA from SAN to LAX or SFO.

77H

SANMAN66 · Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:15 pm

blacksoviet wrote:
Didn't United park a 747-100 at the banjo back in the 1980's?

They most certainly did! The UA 747 did SAN-LAX-HNL. UA used to park DC-10s at the "banjo"
also. UAs gates were at T-1E where WN is today.

SANMAN66 · Sat Nov 09, 2019 12:07 am

The LH flight has been cancelled due to flight attendants on strike at Lufthansa. Most LH flights have been cancelled. Also SAN had a visitor yesterday, a Qatari State plane, an A343. I don't know if it's still here, or why it was here, but I hope someone took some pictures.

blacksoviet · Sat Nov 09, 2019 12:12 am

Government A340s are very rare at SAN. This will probably be the longest A343 flight ever to depart SAN.

SANAV8R · Sat Nov 09, 2019 12:51 am

Two psuedo-airport related topics..

Anybody see in the UT that the plot of on Harbor Drive across from the cell phone lot is slated to be a TopGolf? I always thought they'd utilise it for say Airport/Port Authority offices/parking. There's 39 acres apparently in discussion. 7 for the golf site, the other includes the old rental car lots and Harbor Police. It's really the last thing the airport area needs. I feel old but I vaguely remember there was a multi story driving range downtown near the Santa Fe Station like two decades ago.

And SAN made headlines in tabloids (DailyMail, etc.) because of a prankster using the paging system to post messages about Jeffrey Epstein at T2E.

SANMAN66 wrote:
blacksoviet wrote:
Didn't United park a 747-100 at the banjo back in the 1980's?

They most certainly did! The UA 747 did SAN-LAX-HNL. UA used to park DC-10s at the "banjo"
also. UAs gates were at T-1E where WN is today.

Sort of related, does anybody know when T1 had jetways installed? I've seen a few pics over the years and youtube videos from the mid and late 80s, and I can't put a timeframe. I've seen around the PSA/USAir merger there were still airstairs being used and then by at least '89 there were jetways.

I know the old gate 19 used airstairs until the construction of the old international arrivals area which was like 2002? I know in 2001 I used them flying US PITSAN.

blacksoviet · Sat Nov 09, 2019 8:19 am

What gates are the old US Air gates in Terminal 2?

PacoMartin · Sat Nov 09, 2019 9:29 am

JAAlbert wrote:
Except that HA's fares, even on the 330 are not generally the cheapest offered. HA's non-stop SAN-HNL flight is generally $50 to $100 more expensive than other carriers, so I don't know how they can charge even higher fares on a 321.
If I am stuck on a single aisle plane, I might as well try Alaska or SWA, or any of the other legacy carriers who fly single aisle aircraft to the islands these days.

Seatguru indicates that Alaska has slightly roomier seats than Hawaiian airlines regardless of the A330 or A321n.

HA A330
Economy Comfort 36" 18" | 68 standard seats
Economy 31" 16.5" - 18" | 192 standard seats

HA A321n
Extra Comfort 35" 17.3" |44 standard seats
Economy 30" 17.3" | 129 standard seats

Alaska Airlines A321 (layout 1)
Premium 37-38" 17.7"-18" | 18 or 24 standard seats
Economy 31-32" 17.7"-18" | 159 or 150 standard seats

Southwest
Economy 32-33" 17" | 175 standard seats

JAAlbert wrote:
I love Hawaiian Airlines when I am flying to Hawaii, but mainly due to the widebody aircraft

It looks like you will hardly ever see a domestic widebody at SAN after the next 10 weeks. With HA ending it's A330 there seems to be the occassional B767 from Atlanta.

I would presume that SAN A330 will go to operating the one additional daily nonstop flight between Tokyo Haneda Airport (HND) and Honolulu Daniel K. Inouye International Airport (HNL) starting in March of 2020.

I repeat that HA announced in 3rd qtr results that they will Extended the leases on three A330 aircraft, enabling cost savings while maintaining fleet flexibility for future growth. It looks like they are keeping the full fleet of 24 A330s until at least the Dreamliners begins arriving.

SANFan · Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:43 am

I thought I'd report some September stats for SAN; some surprisingly healthy numbers to report. Here's the link: https://www.san.org/DesktopModules/Brin ... &TabId=403

TOTAL pax for Sept 2019: 2,056,183 - up 6.9% y-o-y!
TOTAL pax y-t-d for 2019: 18,934,467 - we are now up 4.0% y-o-y, now trending UP rather than down as the last 3 months have been!
TOTAL INT'L pax for Sept 2019: 81,493 - down 2.8% y-o-y. Since March, the monthly Int'l pax count has been down from last year's counts....
TOTAL INT'L pax y-t-d for 2019: 79,5887 - up 1.3% y-o-y. I hope this important growth number will remain positive through out 2019.
WN Market Share for Sept 2019: 38%, finally seeing an upward trend for the first time since February!
AS Market Share for Sept 2019: 15%, continuing its upward trend all year!
DL Market Share for Sept 2019: 12.4%, continuing a downward trend since July. Looks like WN & AS have been 'stealing' pax from DL, NK, F9 & others.
INT'L cargo is trending up with 29% growth over Sept 2018; maybe we're importing more schnitzel, sushi and scones these days? Whatever it is, it's good to see. (Even if some is coming from or going to LA.)

Here's a short summary provided by SAN.org:

Total passengers increased 6.9% in September on a 4.4% increase in scheduled seats and 2.8 percentage point increase in load factor. This is the first time the airport has handled more than two million passengers in the typically slower month of September. Alaska had the strongest growth in passenger volume carrying 52,117 more passengers than in 2018. Intra-California travel had the largest increase in scheduled capacity with San Jose and Sacramento leading the pack. International traffic was down slightly due to unscheduled flight disruptions to London and fewer flights to Puerto Vallarta.

I'm very happy to see such a nice increase in Sept pax, almost 7%! It is in fact the highest monthly y-o-y increase in 2019 so far! The second largest increase, 6.2% was in January; so a couple of SAN's slowest months have seen some very nice growth rates this year. But since the rest of the months, including summer, weren't exactly chicken spit -- each month with y-o-y pax growth between 3.5 and 4.5% -- it looks like SAN continues to be a healthy and popular airport.

The continuing decreases in int'l pax, since March, are a bit troubling to me although they seem to be primarily rationalized (per SAN.org) by mx issues and decreased capacity to Mexico. I just hope the numbers aren't hurting our chances for increased int'l service on existing and new cx...

bb

PacoMartin · Sun Nov 10, 2019 2:06 pm

Historical number of operations at SAN around time of vote on moving airport to Miramar
16,517,153 2004 215,211
17,569,355 2005 229,192
17,673,483 2006 230,798 San Diego Airport vote: November 7, 2006
18,326,734 2007 243,762
18,125,633 2008 241,213
16,974,172 2009 199,612 worldwide recession
----
25,000,000 2019 231,200 ESTIMATE

We are roughly at the same number of operations on the runway when the vote was taken.

SANFan · Sun Nov 10, 2019 4:10 pm

Interesting B6 sked reveal in the OAG thread this morning: next summer, the carrier apparently plans on running 4 r/t between SAN and BOS, with 3 between SAN and JFK! (They will have the FLL flight as well.) The apparent RON here is still showing -- a BOS flight, a 320, will arrive SAN at 9:58pm and depart back to BOS at 6:30am; too bad it isn't Mint as only half the BOS flights are. All 3 JFK flights will operate with Mint 321s.

Eight more-or-less daily flights is a pretty hefty schedule for Blue at SDIA, including a RON, and it's great to see! If there is also some growth from a few of the other cx living in T1W, I could see some rather crowded times in our future with probable gate shortages. (Especially if WN continues to expand here and needs more real estate in T1W.)

News like this is hopefully 'encouraging' the SDCRAA to get the replacement T1 design, preparation, construction and completion on as fast a track as possible. We need it in operation NOW!

In another trend I notice per the OAG thread, next summer AS is decreasing their Hawaii service from OAK (and moving it north to PDX and SEA.) I'm sure this is due primarily to the quickly developing WN entrance into the OAK-HI market. It leads me to wonder what the fate of AS's SJC and SAN Hawaii service might be? Of course OAK is a pretty minor market in the AS network (while a major WN base) and both SAN and SJC are much larger AS stations (focus cities) so I hope they will remain important AS gateways to The Islands. I'm certainly encouraged by AS going daily-double to Maui next year! We'll have to wait and see how this all plays out...

bb

PSAatSAN4Ever · Sun Nov 10, 2019 5:21 pm

Wow, Bob, you got up and did your homework this morning, didn't you? Thanks for all that information about our beloved tiny airport!

The numbers overall are impressive; however, I'd like to see the numbers broken down by region: Canada, Europe, and Mexico. Mexico routes are entirely vacationers in the U.S. heading to Mexican beaches, versus the business traffic demands for Canada and Europe driving the flights. And while I appreciate any international service from SAN, it is lower demand to Mexico, it wouldn't break my heart to lose those flights.

It still surprises me that there is SO much service to SJD. Three carriers? All with roundtrip flights from/to SAN at nearly the same time? That's not a high-yield route, but apparently three carriers have found a way to co-exist. Should one of them pull out of SAN-SJD, that still leaves +/- 300 seats daily.

I would love to know the timing of the fourth daily BOS-SAN-BOS flight, but as of this morning, it isn't showing up for June or July of next year, via my own dummy search. There's the RON early-morning departure at 6:30 AM, the return of the first BOS-SAN flight of the morning in the early afternoon, and the red-eye. Any guesses what the fourth would be?

Last night's red-eyes to BOS and JFK left from gates 13 and 15. I'm guessing these are CUTE gates, as an "owner" or long-term leaser, would insist on gates together. On the other hand, I can see an odd advantage to not having two flights depart at the same time next to each other, thus avoiding confusion as to which plane is going where.

No one agrees with you about the need for the new Terminal 1, and how much it was needed yesterday! It is time this airport fast-tracked its projects, as the many mistakes of the past have been learned from, and solutions integrated into the new design. Business is booming in San Diego, and Terminal 2 West and the international wing have raised the bar for passenger experiences at SAN. Let's start building and replacing and make this airport the experience it should be for ALL passengers - not just certain ones.

Hawai'i, well...this one is up in the air for me. I have no idea how it will affect SAN. I won't even venture a guess, as I do not know how many passengers will be O&D and whether or not WN will be providing connections at SAN.

As far as AS and HW are concerned, time will tell. I'm saddened we're losing our A330, but the market dictates that, not our wish list. Side note: how many airports will see regularly scheduled A340 flights but not A330's? Would that make SAN unique?

Thanks again for the updates!!

blacksoviet · Sun Nov 10, 2019 8:25 pm

The Airport Authority Headquarters is located inside the Commuter Terminal. Where will this move once construction of Terminal 1 begins?

blacksoviet · Sun Nov 10, 2019 8:29 pm

The Airport Authority Headquarters is located inside the Commuter Terminal. Where will this move once construction of Terminal 1 begins?

Will the new Terminal 1 include space for the Airport Authority?

SANFan · Sun Nov 10, 2019 8:56 pm

PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
Wow, Bob, you got up and did your homework this morning, didn't you? Thanks for all that information about our beloved tiny airport!

The numbers overall are impressive; however, I'd like to see the numbers broken down by region: Canada, Europe, and Mexico. Mexico routes are entirely vacationers in the U.S. heading to Mexican beaches, versus the business traffic demands for Canada and Europe driving the flights. And while I appreciate any international service from SAN, it is lower demand to Mexico, it wouldn't break my heart to lose those flights.

Hey PSA', yeah, I seem to be pretty excited lately about what Enilria might turn up in his OAG-thread, particularly involving AS. I really do remain a big fan of the carrier as they continue to show their interest and support of SAN. Thanx for your comments.

I found the B6 skeds here: https://www.jetblue.com/ New flights/skeds don't seem to show up in the usual flight schedule page for several days. To save you some time, here's what shows for mid-July as of right now:

SAN departures:
06:30 #220 BOS A320
10:43 #2390 JFK A321 Mint
11:50 #1920 BOS A321
12:58 #190 JFK A321 Mint
14:24 #620 BOS A321 Mint
20:26 #20 BOS A321 Mint
20:30 #90 JFK A321 Mint
20:54 #530 FLL A320

SAN arrivals
09:33 #2289 JFK A321 Mint
10:40 #219 BOS A321
11:28 #189 JFK A321 Mint
13:01 #619 BOS A321 Mint
19:09 #19 BOS A321 Mint
19:16 #89 JFK A321 Mint
19:59 #529 FLL A320
21:58 #419 BOS A320 (RON)

In addition to the RON (finally!) I see longer turn-times here which might decrease time delays on outbounds due to delayed arrivals, but will also contribute to more congestion at the gates in T1W. Also note there will continue to be 3x B6 aircraft on the ground between ~8pm and 8:30! Yikes! I could see the possibility of Blue being relocated again, back to T2W, if their growth here continues!

Regarding Mexico air service from SDIA, remember that the timing of the Cabo flights -- as you mentioned, almost identical on all cx -- does allow for connections (on all 3 cx.) In fact, I think the early morning AS departure is there mainly to offer plenty of seats for San Diegans heading for SJD, while the later departure is perfect for LOTS of online connections. I know AS as well as other cx offer nonstops to Cabo from many many airports but I think they must still have a good number of people who do connect here.

The same for WN; the timing of the SAN departure as well as the afternoon arrival must create lots of connection possibilities for the WN network. They've been daily since they entered the market and seem to be pretty satisfied with the traffic they see. I don't consider the SY service worth discussing as it is only for a very short service period and only a couple of days a week. (Is it even returning in 2020?)

More discussion in a future post. You, as usual, make lots of good points.

bb

blacksoviet · Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:55 pm

I wonder how many seats Jetblue needs to fill on the FLL flight to break even?

tphuang · Sun Nov 10, 2019 11:17 pm

blacksoviet wrote:
I wonder how many seats Jetblue needs to fill on the FLL flight to break even?

That flight has been a solid performer since second half of last year. One of their better performing non mint transcons.

SANFan · Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:23 am

tphuang wrote:
blacksoviet wrote:
I wonder how many seats Jetblue needs to fill on the FLL flight to break even?

That flight has been a solid performer since second half of last year. One of their better performing non mint transcons.

Glad to hear that. (You prolly mentioned it in one of your posts elsewhere but I didn't happen to see it.) I'm happy that Blue stuck with it; I expected that a nonstop from SAN to Lauderdale should do well but it apparently took a while to get there.

I'd love to see what a daytime flight would do in the market but I'm sure that will not happen (on B6 anyway) anytime soon. If the market has matured enough, maybe NK will try it at some point. Spirit has flown a one-stop, no-change flight between SAN & FLL for years now, stopping in IAH in both directions. The last time they did that at SAN was ORD -- they flew SAN-LAS-ORD r/t for a couple of years and eventually they dropped Vegas and made it a nonstop to ORD. Perhaps that same scenario will happen again with Ft. Lauderdale.

I suppose if there are enough business folks wanting to fly up front, Blue might eventually put Mint service (and a larger airplane) on the route. Or, as long as they keep the route all to themselves, who knows, could they even daily-double it?

bb

hawaiian717 · Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:15 am

PacoMartin wrote:
Seatguru indicates that Alaska has slightly roomier seats than Hawaiian airlines regardless of the A330 or A321n.

HA A330
Economy Comfort 36" 18" | 68 standard seats
Economy 31" 16.5" - 18" | 192 standard seats

HA A321n
Extra Comfort 35" 17.3" |44 standard seats
Economy 30" 17.3" | 129 standard seats

Alaska Airlines A321 (layout 1)
Premium 37-38" 17.7"-18" | 18 or 24 standard seats
Economy 31-32" 17.7"-18" | 159 or 150 standard seats

Southwest
Economy 32-33" 17" | 175 standard seats

Except that Alaska normally uses the 737-800 on SAN-Hawaii flights, not the A321.

Alaska Airlines 737-800
Premium 35" 17" | 30 standard seats
Economy 31-32" 17" | 117 standard seats

blacksoviet · Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:16 am

In 10 years Jetblue could have an A321 on the FLL flight. This would be after the new Terminal 1 opens.

PacoMartin · Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:27 am

hawaiian717 wrote:
Except that Alaska normally uses the 737-800 on SAN-Hawaii flights, not the A321.

You are absolutely correct. I checked the records for April and there was not one single A321 flown by Alaska Airlines (either mainland or Alaska to Hawaii). Mea culpa.

82.2% B737-800
17.8% B737-900ER

So it seems that HA gives you an extra 0.3" in seat width, but at the expense of 1-3" of leg room compared to Alaska or Southwest (after the substitution of aircraft in January)
Hawaiian Airlines A321n
Extra Comfort 35" 17.3" |44 standard seats
Economy 30" 17.3" | 129 standard seats

Alaska Airlines 737-800 / 737-900ER
Premium 35" 17" | 30 / 24 standard seats
Economy 31-32" 17" | 117 / 138 standard seats

Southwest
Economy 32-33" 17" | 175 standard seats

Alaska First 41" 21" | 12/16 recliner seats
Hawaiian First 39" 21" | 16 recliner seats

I still wouldn't do a connection just to get on a wide-body at LAX or SFO.

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