blacksoviet
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 12:22 am

The port should have bought Montgomery Field in the 1960s and expanded it. They could have built a big terminal and a 10,000 ft runway.
 
SANMAN66
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 1:53 am

blacksoviet wrote:
The port should have bought Montgomery Field in the 1960s and expanded it. They could have built a big terminal and a 10,000 ft runway.


I don't think there was enough room for a 10,000ft runway or big terminal. Keep in mind, the San Diego local government is very shortsighted. They would be sitting around talking about it up until this day!
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PacoMartin
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Re: San Diego Aviation Operations ATADS

Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:19 am

DL717 wrote:
San Diego's airport solution will be costly, but can be found on slide 31:
http://sdapa.org/download/RyanHall.pdf


The Midway district has over 10,500 people living there and a ton of businesses. Loma Portal has 4400. The maps on page 31 seems to include more than just those two districts.

They were talking about a 3000 acre airport, while the current one is under 700 acres.

Are you sure the future is not a floating airport?

The "Passengers versus Capacity" statistics for Jan-June 2019
125.7 Passengers per Departure
148.0 Estimated Seats per Departure

They may be a lot higher than forecast by SH&E, but then so is passenger load. They can't get much larger unless General Aviation is prohibited (which is illegal according to the SDRAA), and regional aircraft are also banned (which is also illegal).
 
SANAV8R
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 7:22 am

Image

These concepts were pretty out there.

Concepts 1 -4 do the least amount of residential damage by building a runway on what appears to be
  • (1) Harbor Island - but displacing hundreds of personal boats/yachts
  • (2,3,4) Harbor Drive/partially on the airport's terminals.
But all of those concepts' extend the present runway right into the heart of Loma Portal/Liberty Station not to mention all are traffic nightmares when you are rearranging the only roadway that accesses the airport.

Concepts 5 & 6 are absolutely insane though when you think of the shear amount of residential destruction.
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blacksoviet
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 8:29 am

When Lindbergh Field becomes slot controlled, people may decide to use Amtrak or the California High Speed Railroad as an alternative to air travel. I would like to see Amtrak introduce long distance sleeper car service out of the Santa Fe Depot.
 
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Coronado990
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Re: San Diego Aviation Operations ATADS

Sun Aug 25, 2019 2:33 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
Are you sure the future is not a floating airport?

The "Passengers versus Capacity" statistics for Jan-June 2019
125.7 Passengers per Departure
148.0 Estimated Seats per Departure

They may be a lot higher than forecast by SH&E, but then so is passenger load. They can't get much larger unless General Aviation is prohibited (which is illegal according to the SDRAA), and regional aircraft are also banned (which is also illegal).


Regarding the floating airport...Have they figured out how to to put an ILS on an undulating platform yet?
We're up.
 
washingtonflyer
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:02 pm

SANAV8R wrote:

These concepts were pretty out there.

Concepts 1 -4 do the least amount of residential damage by building a runway on what appears to be
  • (1) Harbor Island - but displacing hundreds of personal boats/yachts
  • (2,3,4) Harbor Drive/partially on the airport's terminals.
But all of those concepts' extend the present runway right into the heart of Loma Portal/Liberty Station not to mention all are traffic nightmares when you are rearranging the only roadway that accesses the airport.

Concepts 5 & 6 are absolutely insane though when you think of the shear amount of residential destruction.


Those concepts all - for the most part - seem to follow a thought process of "how much mayhem can we cause".

Concept F seems to be the one that is realistic

Image
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:19 pm

Image
SANAV8R wrote:
Concepts 5 & 6 are absolutely insane though when you think of the shear amount of residential destruction.


Concept #6 was the one used in the 2004-2006 study period, because the assumption was you needed two runways a minimum of 10,000 feet in length.
Dual simultaneous precision instrument approaches are normally approved on parallel runway centerline separation of 4,300 feet."


The Midway district has a population of just over 10,000 but the city of San Diego just approved removing the 30' building height restriction in order to triple the population.
Image

Gatwick in UK and Bombay (Mumbai) Airport in India both fly over 46 MAP a year on single runways. While that does not mean to imply that San Diego can operate an airport at that capacity with 46 MAP as it is not going to support that many twin-aisle jets, there are many analysts that think it can well exceed 30 MAP which has previously been the "upper limit". In 2018 there were 24 MAP at San Diego.

The difference is at San Diego there were ~ 76 passengers per operation in 2004 and now there are 125 passengers per operation. Las Vegas is already much higher than that so there is very little possibility of moving up to larger jets. I think Las Vegas has replaced San Diego as the most critical airport problem in the USA (although there are other candidates).
 
PSAatSAN4Ever
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:50 pm

I have always thought of San Diego as being like West Berlin in many ways: a collection of villages with extremely clear and defined boundaries. For the San Diego region, there is Mexico to the south, the Pacific to the west, Camp Pendleton to the north, and the mountains to the east and northeast. As such, most of the usable space has been accounted for, and the list of options for moving the airport is limited. And that list has been checked and double-checked and triple-checked, and each time the answer is clear: there is nothing viable that pleases everyone.

A desert-based airport on the east side of the mountains with a magically affordable high-speed rail link would have costs that would bankrupt anyone who came near it.

Current military lands are now and forever off limits. They will never be available, and they will never be shared. The military and their congressional "supporters" have made it clear in their actions that this is never to be considered an option, ever.

La Jolla residents have made it clear as well that, in the unlikely event that Miramar would become available, they will do to Miramar what Orange County NIMBY's did to El Toro: Military = always good, civilian = the apocalypse.

Lindbergh Field is going to stay where it is, with one runway with a displaced-threshold for arrivals, sitting next door to the designated-historic Marine Corps Recruit Depot, of which not one square millimeter will ever be used for expansion, Terminal growth - thankfully in the works with mass transit options - will occur on the south side, with replacement of Terminal 1 entirely, and hopefully along with Terminal 2 east.

But that's it. Our own little "Tegel" airport will have to suffice, with no option of a Schönefeld / Brandenburg International available. Southern California will only ever have SAN, SNA, LGB, ONT, PSP, BUR, and LAX to choose from. CLD might expand and/or gain more service, but that's a wait-and-see-how-organized-the-NIMBY's-are situation.

I'm not saying, "please don't discuss anymore", by any means. I am only saying that here in San Diego, we have already discussed this ad nauseum, and this is how it is going to be. If the members here wish to continue this, by all means please do. My thoughts are, "we've checked this relatively short list over and over and over, and we're not going to magically find something we overlooked". It just isn't going to happen. However, if there are those who wish to continue this line, please do so.
 
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DL717
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 4:24 pm

PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
I have always thought of San Diego as being like West Berlin in many ways: a collection of villages with extremely clear and defined boundaries. For the San Diego region, there is Mexico to the south, the Pacific to the west, Camp Pendleton to the north, and the mountains to the east and northeast. As such, most of the usable space has been accounted for, and the list of options for moving the airport is limited. And that list has been checked and double-checked and triple-checked, and each time the answer is clear: there is nothing viable that pleases everyone.

A desert-based airport on the east side of the mountains with a magically affordable high-speed rail link would have costs that would bankrupt anyone who came near it.

Current military lands are now and forever off limits. They will never be available, and they will never be shared. The military and their congressional "supporters" have made it clear in their actions that this is never to be considered an option, ever.

La Jolla residents have made it clear as well that, in the unlikely event that Miramar would become available, they will do to Miramar what Orange County NIMBY's did to El Toro: Military = always good, civilian = the apocalypse.

Lindbergh Field is going to stay where it is, with one runway with a displaced-threshold for arrivals, sitting next door to the designated-historic Marine Corps Recruit Depot, of which not one square millimeter will ever be used for expansion, Terminal growth - thankfully in the works with mass transit options - will occur on the south side, with replacement of Terminal 1 entirely, and hopefully along with Terminal 2 east.

But that's it. Our own little "Tegel" airport will have to suffice, with no option of a Schönefeld / Brandenburg International available. Southern California will only ever have SAN, SNA, LGB, ONT, PSP, BUR, and LAX to choose from. CLD might expand and/or gain more service, but that's a wait-and-see-how-organized-the-NIMBY's-are situation.

I'm not saying, "please don't discuss anymore", by any means. I am only saying that here in San Diego, we have already discussed this ad nauseum, and this is how it is going to be. If the members here wish to continue this, by all means please do. My thoughts are, "we've checked this relatively short list over and over and over, and we're not going to magically find something we overlooked". It just isn't going to happen. However, if there are those who wish to continue this line, please do so.


Yup. Then again, an 8 earthquake might change the available space. J/K
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DL717
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Re: San Diego Aviation Operations ATADS

Sun Aug 25, 2019 4:31 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
DL717 wrote:
San Diego's airport solution will be costly, but can be found on slide 31:
http://sdapa.org/download/RyanHall.pdf


The Midway district has over 10,500 people living there and a ton of businesses. Loma Portal has 4400. The maps on page 31 seems to include more than just those two districts.

They were talking about a 3000 acre airport, while the current one is under 700 acres.

Are you sure the future is not a floating airport?

The "Passengers versus Capacity" statistics for Jan-June 2019
125.7 Passengers per Departure
148.0 Estimated Seats per Departure

They may be a lot higher than forecast by SH&E, but then so is passenger load. They can't get much larger unless General Aviation is prohibited (which is illegal according to the SDRAA), and regional aircraft are also banned (which is also illegal).


Floating airport is a non starter. It would have to be off the coast out of view because no one would want to see it, you’d need and insurance company to buy in on a ridiculously expensive facility with billions of dollars in aircraft assets sitting on it that could sink, and the most important the problem of an oscillating threshold. That thing would be in CAT III a large chunk of the time due to the Marine layer that sits off the coast. Well, that and getting to it. Might as well build in the desert at that point.

The claims of Mumbai and Gatwick capability vs. SAN are apples to oranges. First, Mumbai has two intersecting runways. They choose to operate in a single runway config, but they don’t have to. Calling them a single runway airport is like calling La Guardia a single runway airport. As to Gatwick, they also have a parallel runway, but it’s too close to use both at the same time, that said, they never have to close to do work on the runway. San Diego has no such luxury and is the true single runway airport of the three. They also handle 45 million pax because they have a ridiculous amount of real estate to handle a very high number of widebody operations. SAN will never be able to do that. Gatwick is 2.5 times in size by acreage and Mumbai is just over twice as large.

blacksoviet wrote:
When Lindbergh Field becomes slot controlled, people may decide to use Amtrak or the California High Speed Railroad as an alternative to air travel. I would like to see Amtrak introduce long distance sleeper car service out of the Santa Fe Depot.


High speed rail is dead. San Diego was barely on the map for that which is absurd considering they started in the middle of nowhere.

washingtonflyer wrote:
SANAV8R wrote:

These concepts were pretty out there.

Concepts 1 -4 do the least amount of residential damage by building a runway on what appears to be
  • (1) Harbor Island - but displacing hundreds of personal boats/yachts
  • (2,3,4) Harbor Drive/partially on the airport's terminals.
But all of those concepts' extend the present runway right into the heart of Loma Portal/Liberty Station not to mention all are traffic nightmares when you are rearranging the only roadway that accesses the airport.

Concepts 5 & 6 are absolutely insane though when you think of the shear amount of residential destruction.


Those concepts all - for the most part - seem to follow a thought process of "how much mayhem can we cause".

Concept F seems to be the one that is realistic

Image


The “V” config won’t work anymore. Downtown is now too tall and to use it for departures only, you’d need at least a CAT I ILS on Runway 27 to keep it going smoothly. You can’t get that CAT I ILS.

Like I said, bite the bullet and start buying homes and businesses
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washingtonflyer
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:45 pm

So the orientation of the "V" seems to be 9/27 (the existing runway) and 10/28. I recognize that the buildings Downtown are too tall for an approach on 28. Could you do 28 departures and 27 arrivals? In an ILS configuration, use 10 for arrivals and 9 for departures? Or simply buckle down and use only 9 for both operations when east operations are needed? IIRC, 27 is the runway for at least 90 to 95% of operations.
 
PSAatSAN4Ever
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 7:23 pm

washingtonflyer wrote:
So the orientation of the "V" seems to be 9/27 (the existing runway) and 10/28. I recognize that the buildings Downtown are too tall for an approach on 28. Could you do 28 departures and 27 arrivals? In an ILS configuration, use 10 for arrivals and 9 for departures? Or simply buckle down and use only 9 for both operations when east operations are needed? IIRC, 27 is the runway for at least 90 to 95% of operations.


In the discussion on this issue here in San Diego, it was pointed out that landings on Runway 10 would take planes closer to downtown on final approach than Runway 9, relegating it to solely for departures.

Ironically, one such discussion mentioned that had the runway been oriented slight to the northwest originally, there would be no departure restrictions because of Point Loma. However, this would have necessitated an approach directly over downtown San Diego, which would mean much more severe height restrictions than the current set. It would definitely have changed the entire landscape of the region!
 
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DL717
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 9:48 pm

PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
washingtonflyer wrote:
So the orientation of the "V" seems to be 9/27 (the existing runway) and 10/28. I recognize that the buildings Downtown are too tall for an approach on 28. Could you do 28 departures and 27 arrivals? In an ILS configuration, use 10 for arrivals and 9 for departures? Or simply buckle down and use only 9 for both operations when east operations are needed? IIRC, 27 is the runway for at least 90 to 95% of operations.


In the discussion on this issue here in San Diego, it was pointed out that landings on Runway 10 would take planes closer to downtown on final approach than Runway 9, relegating it to solely for departures.

Ironically, one such discussion mentioned that had the runway been oriented slight to the northwest originally, there would be no departure restrictions because of Point Loma. However, this would have necessitated an approach directly over downtown San Diego, which would mean much more severe height restrictions than the current set. It would definitely have changed the entire landscape of the region!


If they’d have done that orientation when it opened in the 20s, there wouldn’t have been any buildings to worry about. Short sighted...
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PacoMartin
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Aug 26, 2019 2:11 am

I found the report with the forecast done in 2004 and can compare to actual data

Forecast vs Actual enplanements
2017 low 10,309,000 to high 12,004,000 forecast
2018 low 10,549,000 to high 12,317,000 forecast
2017 actual 11,139,933 enplanements actual
2018 total passengers = 24,238,300 so roughly 12,119,150 enplanments
So actual data is near the HIGH prediction

Forecast operations for 2018 low 241,796 to high 280,840
Actual data 225,058 operations
So Actual data is lower than the LOW forecast

So it seems like the airport will reach 30 million passengers long before the 2030 prediction date, but operations are still lower than expected due primarily to higher capacity jets than forecast. For instance it was forecast that Southwest would never give up their 143 seat jets for something larger. Instead, Southwest mixed in 175 seat jets. Also the regional jets are larger than predicted. Load factors are at least 6% higher than forecast.

Constrained operations are between 260,000 and 300,000 operations per year
 
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Coronado990
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Aug 26, 2019 4:11 pm

PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
I have always thought of San Diego as being like West Berlin in many ways: a collection of villages with extremely clear and defined boundaries. For the San Diego region, there is Mexico to the south, the Pacific to the west, Camp Pendleton to the north, and the mountains to the east and northeast. As such, most of the usable space has been accounted for, and the list of options for moving the airport is limited. And that list has been checked and double-checked and triple-checked, and each time the answer is clear: there is nothing viable that pleases everyone.

A desert-based airport on the east side of the mountains with a magically affordable high-speed rail link would have costs that would bankrupt anyone who came near it.

Current military lands are now and forever off limits. They will never be available, and they will never be shared. The military and their congressional "supporters" have made it clear in their actions that this is never to be considered an option, ever.

La Jolla residents have made it clear as well that, in the unlikely event that Miramar would become available, they will do to Miramar what Orange County NIMBY's did to El Toro: Military = always good, civilian = the apocalypse.

Lindbergh Field is going to stay where it is, with one runway with a displaced-threshold for arrivals, sitting next door to the designated-historic Marine Corps Recruit Depot, of which not one square millimeter will ever be used for expansion, Terminal growth - thankfully in the works with mass transit options - will occur on the south side, with replacement of Terminal 1 entirely, and hopefully along with Terminal 2 east.

But that's it. Our own little "Tegel" airport will have to suffice, with no option of a Schönefeld / Brandenburg International available. Southern California will only ever have SAN, SNA, LGB, ONT, PSP, BUR, and LAX to choose from. CLD might expand and/or gain more service, but that's a wait-and-see-how-organized-the-NIMBY's-are situation.

I'm not saying, "please don't discuss anymore", by any means. I am only saying that here in San Diego, we have already discussed this ad nauseum, and this is how it is going to be. If the members here wish to continue this, by all means please do. My thoughts are, "we've checked this relatively short list over and over and over, and we're not going to magically find something we overlooked". It just isn't going to happen. However, if there are those who wish to continue this line, please do so.


I too have concluded that Lindbergh is here to stay for at least another 30 years. My question, based on that conclusion, is what other San Diego County airports are out there that can handle the overflow. What opportunities are out there? Carlsbad has a growing tech industry and Brown has the busy border to work with. One airport could serve traditional regional hubs and intrastate commuter flights by the legacies and one could capture the ULCC crowd centered on the SD/TIJ population as a whole. Both have operational challeges...one airport has a short runway and the other a mountain and no ILS. However, CLD airport has a terminal and SDM has a 8000' runway to work with. If we wait for Lindbergh to get so congested that it will become a slot controlled airport with higher fares it will be more and more difficult with the NIMBY's as time goes on and more opportunities lost. I was just wondering who will be the most proactive by thinking out of the Lindbergh box.
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blacksoviet
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Aug 26, 2019 4:17 pm

I think that in 50 years, land will be bought and CLD's runway will be extended. I think we will eventually see small mainline jets at CLD.

With a long enough runway, you could even see intercontinental flights at CLD.
 
blacksoviet
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:54 pm

When did the last MD-80 depart SAN?
 
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rjsampson
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Aug 26, 2019 8:13 pm

blacksoviet wrote:
I think that in 50 years, land will be bought and CLD's runway will be extended. I think we will eventually see small mainline jets at CLD.

With a long enough runway, you could even see intercontinental flights at CLD.


Slim to no chance of that happening, even within 50 years. Not only is NIMBYism now, and always will be, rampant, but there is a severe housing shortage in the County. Land for housing is far more valuable than land for a runway extension. ...especially if Carlsbad's economy continues to grow at the rate that it is.

If it's 50 years we're talking about: I would suggest we're more likely to see better far faster transportation from SAN, to CBad, to (hopefully, given they're all on the coast): to LAX itself.
"..your eyes will be forever turned skyward, for there.." yeah we know the DaVinci quote. But GA is so dang expensive these days! :(
 
Jshank83
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:25 am

I posted this in an AS thread but since this group is active I wanted to post it here.

Saw these cuts in the schedule tonight.
STL-SAN Nov 5
MCI-SAN Jan 6

Maybe they are doing a cutback at SAN? Other routes you might want to check. I don’t know what else runs there.
 
Jshank83
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:02 am

also looks like ABQ/MSP/El Paso/OMA are gone also.

So at least 6 cities.
 
WN732
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 6:04 am

blacksoviet wrote:
When did the last MD-80 depart SAN?


They come in often as World Atlantic is performing flights for CBP.
 
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SANFan
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 7:14 am

Jshank83 wrote:
also looks like ABQ/MSP/El Paso/OMA are gone.

So at least 6 cities.

True. Sad but true.

However, I've been searching thru the AS flight schedule and have found some exciting positives: MCO goes Daily starting Jan 7! There also seems to be a major sked release effective on or about 5/21/20 which show in the flight schedules for SAN: daily-double BOS service (a morning departure and a redeye), daily-double service to both BOI and STS, and SJC shows 6 daily r/t next spring!

AND, I see a brand new route between SAN and RDM (Redmond/Bend, OR!) I've looked for any other highlights. and other new routes, and found nothing else. Since the May schedule is so far out, nothing is certain right now but I'm intrigued that Network Planning has made such an unexpected effort on something that is about 9 months out!

The fact that the new SAN-RDM route is already out and showing on the schedules tells me to expect a major AS route announcement tomorrow or Thursday morning. My guess would be Wednesday morning and I'll be up early an checking for it.

I'm sure there must be other changes and new routes elsewhere in the AS network but I expect SAN will be represented. AS promised growth and expansion in 2020 and I think previews will start this week! (I'm still hoping to see JFK and/or OAK start sooner rather than later.)

BTW, here are the times and details of the new unannounced SAN-RDM service which appears to start on Jan 7, 2020:
Lv SAN 2:50pm AS #2738 EMJ (by QX)
Ar RDM 5:19pm

Lv RDM 11:40am AS #2737 EMJ (by QX)
Ar SAN 2:08pm
(It looks like the a/c will fly RDM-SAN-RDM; I do not yet know if there will be other new service in and out of RDM to fund this a/c.)

Despite the dropped routes, which I certainly hate to see, it looks like AS will be maintaining a very healthy operation in SAN for the foreseeable future!

bb
 
washingtonflyer
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:14 am

Jshank83 wrote:
I posted this in an AS thread but since this group is active I wanted to post it here.

Saw these cuts in the schedule tonight.
STL-SAN Nov 5
MCI-SAN Jan 6

Maybe they are doing a cutback at SAN? Other routes you might want to check. I don’t know what else runs there.


Thats too bad. I've been using those routes to get my family members across country on AA/AS award tickets. Last time my cousin flew (STL-SAN), the AS flight was 100% full. Now I know load factor is not an indicator of financial performance, but someone was flying that route.....
 
pmanni1
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:27 am

With the exception of MSP all of these cancelled routes had direct competition from WN.
 
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SANFan
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:12 pm

pmanni1 wrote:
With the exception of MSP all of these cancelled routes had direct competition from WN.

Somewhere last night I mentioned that fact in a post. In head-to-head competition with WN in SAN, there seems little doubt as who has won several of the battles.

I'm wondering now what WN will do with those formerly competitive routes? Remember WN was offering one flight a week between SAN & ELP when they re-started that route in March 2018. As soon as AS entered with daily EMJ service, WN upped their game to match it. WN also jumped on SAN-OMA as soon as AS started that service. You can just go down the list market by market with the same results, including many where AS continues to offer service despite an onslaught by WN, such as SJC & SMF.

I only hope WN will continue to serve those SAN markets from which they have soundly chased AS. The competition will be missed.

bb
 
PSAatSAN4Ever
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:16 pm

SANFan wrote:
pmanni1 wrote:
With the exception of MSP all of these cancelled routes had direct competition from WN.

Somewhere last night I mentioned that fact in a post. In head-to-head competition with WN in SAN, there seems little doubt as who has won several of the battles.

I'm wondering now what WN will do with those formerly competitive routes? Remember WN was offering one flight a week between SAN & ELP when they re-started that route in March 2018. As soon as AS entered with daily EMJ service, WN upped their game to match it. WN also jumped on SAN-OMA as soon as AS started that service. You can just go down the list market by market with the same results, including many where AS continues to offer service despite an onslaught by WN, such as SJC & SMF.

I only hope WN will continue to serve those SAN markets from which they have soundly chased AS. The competition will be missed.

bb


The competition might be missed, but it sounds like the premium fares needed to sustain these "unusual" routes isn't enough for two airlines.

For both airlines, the announcements of "retreats", shall we say, of WN pulling out of EWR and AS pulling out of these "lesser" SAN markets indicates that the planes are needed elsewhere on routes that will produce the higher-paying customers. Both airlines tried, both got less than stellar results, and now they are moving on. C'est la vie...

If the MAX ever flies again - and at the rate we're going, our grandchildren may not be able to fly it yet - things might change. Until then, everyone who was counting on the MAX to pick up routes is on a stand-by mode of operations, and we'll just have to wait and see.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:53 am

Domestic Passengers 23,195,614 at SAN 2018
International Passengers 1,042,686 at SAN 2018

So what happens to international flights as SAN gets too crowded? Do they all move to TIJ airport?

Alaska Airlines Puerto Vallarta, San José del Cabo
Southwest Airlines Puerto Vallarta, San José del Cabo
Sun Country Airlines Seasonal: San José del Cabo

Air Canada Express Vancouver
WestJet Calgary Seasonal: Vancouver
Air Canada Rouge Toronto–Pearson
Swoop (delayed until Summer 2020)Abbotsford , Edmonton

British Airways London–Heathrow
Lufthansa Frankfurt
Edelweiss Air Seasonal: Zurich
Japan Airlines Tokyo–Narita
 
PSAatSAN4Ever
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:28 am

PacoMartin wrote:
Domestic Passengers 23,195,614 at SAN 2018
International Passengers 1,042,686 at SAN 2018

So what happens to international flights as SAN gets too crowded? Do they all move to TIJ airport?

Alaska Airlines Puerto Vallarta, San José del Cabo
Southwest Airlines Puerto Vallarta, San José del Cabo
Sun Country Airlines Seasonal: San José del Cabo

Air Canada Express Vancouver
WestJet Calgary Seasonal: Vancouver
Air Canada Rouge Toronto–Pearson
Swoop (delayed until Summer 2020)Abbotsford , Edmonton

British Airways London–Heathrow
Lufthansa Frankfurt
Edelweiss Air Seasonal: Zurich
Japan Airlines Tokyo–Narita


No problems at the international terminal; so far the spacing has been quite good. JAL 65/66 is an early-morning arrival, LH 466/467 arrives/departs early afternoon, BA 273/272 has its time later in the evening. The Mexico flights seem to arrive fairly quickly together between Japan & Germany, but there has been no issue (or we would have heard something about it by now!). Remember, too, the Canada flights (with the exception of Abbottsford) all have pre-clearance. COPA might have wanted to arrive later than FIS wanted to be open, but I have only heard the rumors of what might have been considered by Copa.

Why can I not confirm this in my own mind? Six international gates, all of which are swing gates? The only limiting factor, if I remember right, is the wide-body limitations on the tarmac, but there aren't two scheduled widebodies at the same time currently scheduled.
 
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:08 am

PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
Domestic Passengers 23,195,614 at SAN 2018
International Passengers 1,042,686 at SAN 2018

So what happens to international flights as SAN gets too crowded? Do they all move to TIJ airport?

Alaska Airlines Puerto Vallarta, San José del Cabo
Southwest Airlines Puerto Vallarta, San José del Cabo
Sun Country Airlines Seasonal: San José del Cabo

Air Canada Express Vancouver
WestJet Calgary Seasonal: Vancouver
Air Canada Rouge Toronto–Pearson
Swoop (delayed until Summer 2020)Abbotsford , Edmonton

British Airways London–Heathrow
Lufthansa Frankfurt
Edelweiss Air Seasonal: Zurich
Japan Airlines Tokyo–Narita


No problems at the international terminal; so far the spacing has been quite good. JAL 65/66 is an early-morning arrival, LH 466/467 arrives/departs early afternoon, BA 273/272 has its time later in the evening. The Mexico flights seem to arrive fairly quickly together between Japan & Germany, but there has been no issue (or we would have heard something about it by now!). Remember, too, the Canada flights (with the exception of Abbottsford) all have pre-clearance. COPA might have wanted to arrive later than FIS wanted to be open, but I have only heard the rumors of what might have been considered by Copa.

Why can I not confirm this in my own mind? Six international gates, all of which are swing gates? The only limiting factor, if I remember right, is the wide-body limitations on the tarmac, but there aren't two scheduled widebodies at the same time currently scheduled.

Can more gates be connected to the FIS or is six the limit?

What is a swing gate?

How many international gates will Terminal 1 have after it is rebuilt?
 
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:30 am

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/bu ... story.html
A four year old article on the Terminal One reconstruction says "The project would double the airport’s capacity to about 28 million passengers a year."

In 2018 passengers had already reached 24 MAP with 1 million being international. So it sounds like they will already be at 28 MAP by the time construction is completed.

International flights are the most logical to move to Tijuana since you are going through customs already. I know that Canadian flights have pre clearance, but there doesn't seem to be that many.
 
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Nearby destinations

Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:55 pm

As always over 40% of available domestic seats fly to destinations within 500 miles. Of the top 10 destinations, only 4 are over 500 miles away.

statute miles (most popular destinations for 1 year up to May 2019)
447 SFO CA San Francisco
853 DEN CO Denver
1,050 SEA WA Seattle
304 PHX AZ Phoenix
417 SJC CA San Jose
258 LAS NV Las Vegas
480 SMF CA Sacramento
1,171 DFW TX Dallas/Fort Worth
1,723 ORD IL Chicago
446 OAK CA Oakland

So even if there was some pre-clearance facility and you could fly to more distant domestic destinations from Tijuana, these 9 airports have only about 10% of the traffic.
BOS
JFK
EWR
PHL
BWI
IAD
FLL
MIA
MCO
Last edited by PacoMartin on Thu Aug 29, 2019 2:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Aug 29, 2019 2:14 pm

Image

Anyone know what the new route could be?
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Aug 29, 2019 2:40 pm

PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
Why can I not confirm this in my own mind? Six international gates, all of which are swing gates? The only limiting factor, if I remember right, is the wide-body limitations on the tarmac, but there aren't two scheduled widebodies at the same time currently scheduled.


Edelweiss and BA overlap. BA273 is scheduled to arrive from LHR at 6:40pm while WK19 departs at 7:15pm. When I flew in on the BA flight earlier this month, we parked at gate 51 and the Edelweiss A340 was at 48.

Hawaiian also needs to be factored in since the A330 needs a widebody-capable gate. When I've seen them the A330 to HNL uses 51 and the A321 from OGG uses 50 but is taken off the gate for the overnight sit (I think the A330 is too, but I'm not sure). They'll have more gating flexibility once the HNL flight switches to the A321.
 
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:28 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Anyone know what the new route could be?

The "new route" prospects have not included a hint about how many departures might be involved. Therefore, as I've posted before in various threads, my #1 & 2 suspects have been JFK and OAK -- JFK would be a single daily departure and I would hope OAK would involve at least 3 departures.

That being said, and given what seems to be going on with AS in SAN these days, 'unpredictable' seems like a good description to me. I have a long list of other possibilities for a new destination but will AS go for another unserved destination as they did with RDM? (No competition is nice but it also implies less traffic, obviously, than a market that already sees service.)

Could it be a city that is not even served by AS right now, like CLE, COS, TUL or JAX? Will it fit the trend we see today from AS of serving the far west rather than Midwest or even transcons? (Should we eliminate any and all Midwest cities from consideration?) Would it maybe be one of the large cities in the west that are often being discussed as needing service from all of AS's California 'hubs' (including SAN) such as PHX, LAS or DEN?

Transcons seem to be discussed a lot on various threads as not performing well for AS and heck, they obviously can't even make a flight from SAN to the WAS area work. So do I continue to hope to see the expected JFK nonstop start? Realistically, probably not. Other eastern cities like PHL, RDU, ORF and TPA that I used to have high hopes to see AS serve from here are quickly fading as options.

There are, IMO, some intra-CA choices left for AS from SAN: SBP, SBA, SCK (keep in mind how STS has done), most without current service (read: competition.) Going out of state, I think about RNO, EUG, MFR, Eastern WA and even Montana.

There, does that answer your question, 'indy? I didn't think so... ;) But hey, somewhere in all that babbling, the answer might be in plain sight! (I would suspect it actually is...)

bb
 
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:46 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/sdut-lindbergh-terminal-expansion-airport-2015nov19-htmlstory.html
A four year old article on the Terminal One reconstruction says "The project would double the airport’s capacity to about 28 million passengers a year."

In 2018 passengers had already reached 24 MAP with 1 million being international. So it sounds like they will already be at 28 MAP by the time construction is completed.

International flights are the most logical to move to Tijuana since you are going through customs already. I know that Canadian flights have pre clearance, but there doesn't seem to be that many.


International flights aren't going to Tijuana. Its not a customs area, its a land border crossing. If you use it for flights outside of Mexico, you have to clear twice. Once in Mexico and again in the US and you have to pay for it. That's just stupidity if you do it.

Terminals don't add capacity, runways do. What a nonsense article. The number of gates a runway can support is typically throughput plus 20%. A single runway has a throughput of about 50 ops a hour, so about 60 gates. Maybe a couple of more because of FIS gates that have much lower utilization. Then another 20% for off gate parking, so 12 ramp positions. Basically, they'll be done when Terminal 1 is replaced because the runway can't support more. You could have 100 gates and it still wont give you more capacity because the runway is the limiting factor and the FAA will meter that to ensure that capacity does not get over run. More gates just give you more space to wait for your delayed flight and reduces towing.
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:06 pm

i flew in to Basel, Switzerland last year. it was interesting -- you can exit the airport to France or Switzerland and there were separate customs lines for each exit. It is one step better than having the land bridge they have here from TJ Airport to SD because you would never have to enter Mexico..
 
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:24 pm

Coronado990 wrote:
Does anybody have any numbers on how many pax from Tjuana use the San Diego airport?

Anyway, just looking at how to deal with the next decade of growth.


I should think it would be minimal. In contrast, a very big percentage of passengers at Tijuana airport are from San Diego county as they have routes to nearly every major airport in Mexico plus Shanghai–Pudong and Beijing–Capital. The Chinese destinations are there because Mexico City is so hot and dry that jets from there must refuel before crossing the ocean.

I have seen everything from 28 MAP to 40 MAP before the San Diego airport with a rebuilt terminal 1 will hit constraints. As roughly 10 MAP last year flew to destinations within 500 miles (i.e. Reno NV), it does make you wonder if Frontier, Allegiant, and Spirit could operate short haul flights out of Brown field.
 
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:52 pm

ajlombardi2 wrote:
It is one step better than having the land bridge they have here from TJ Airport to SD because you would never have to enter Mexico..


The CBX as built was not the original proposal made in 1990. That would have kept passengers in a secure area so they wouldn't enter into Mexico, but could then board jets bound for the USA without going through customs.

In the first 5 months of 2019 627,000 (125,400 per month) people came from Mexico and 488,000 (97,600 per month) went to Mexico. In contrast, roughly 75,000-80,000 people fly from SAN to SFO per month.

The CBX numbers are too small to be seen as having any effect on upcoming constraints on the San Diego airport. I have noticed that Aeromexico and Volaris no longer fly to SAN airport. SAN airport to Mexican flights are only to Cabo and Puerto Vallarta today.
 
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:55 pm

SANFan wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Anyone know what the new route could be?

my #1 & 2 suspects have been JFK and OAK -- JFK would be a single daily departure and I would hope OAK would involve at least 3 departures.


Given that AS and WN seem to have reached some sort of truce, SAN-OAK is probably unlikely. SAN-JFK, on the other hand, probably makes perfect sense now that AA's service on this route has been "suspended".
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Aug 29, 2019 8:18 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
Coronado990 wrote:
Does anybody have any numbers on how many pax from Tjuana use the San Diego airport?

Anyway, just looking at how to deal with the next decade of growth.


I should think it would be minimal. In contrast, a very big percentage of passengers at Tijuana airport are from San Diego county as they have routes to nearly every major airport in Mexico plus Shanghai–Pudong and Beijing–Capital. The Chinese destinations are there because Mexico City is so hot and dry that jets from there must refuel before crossing the ocean.

I have seen everything from 28 MAP to 40 MAP before the San Diego airport with a rebuilt terminal 1 will hit constraints. As roughly 10 MAP last year flew to destinations within 500 miles (i.e. Reno NV), it does make you wonder if Frontier, Allegiant, and Spirit could operate short haul flights out of Brown field.


Aeromexico is discontinuing service to Shanghai on December 13. The development of new aircraft has allowed AM to fly directly to places like ICN and NRT from MEX eliminating stops in TIJ or MTY. There's also been some historic demand economically from Baja to Asia because of the rise in economic development in Baja (i.e. major maquiladoras from Sony, Toyota, etc) as well as some VFR.

As for Brown Field - as a South Bay resident who is close to Brown Field, it seems like it has everything going for it.
  • Freeway access. The 905 is connected to the 125, 5 and 805 freeways.
  • Nearby access to cross-border transit and commerce. Otay Mesa the third-busiest commercial port of entry on the Mexico-United States border.
  • Nearby access to Chula Vista. A few years ago, Forbes listed Chula Vista as the second fastest growing city in the nation, having recovered from the slow down during the Great Recession.
  • A decently sized runway

But then there's just as many issues against it.
  • The terrain
  • NIMBYs would hamper it. South Bay has its vocal NIMBYs (recent issues: the Chula Vista Convention Center, Otay Ranch, Jamul Casino/Otay Lakes Rd., high-rises in Downtown Chula Vista, etc.)
  • Noise concerns from the housing developments in Ocean View Hills, Otay Mesa West, Palm Ave., Imperial Beach
  • Would airspace become crowded? TIJ, NZY, NSR, SAN all operate nearby.
  • There's very little public transit options to that area. They would need entertain the idea of a new east-west trolley line that connects the Otay Mesa border, CBX, Brown Field to connect to the current UCSD Blue Line.
  • The cost of developing a proper air terminal.
  • The lack of facilities around the airport (rental car, hotels, etc.)
  • Attracting and maintaining air service
  • Sharing the field with general aviation or military operations
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Aug 29, 2019 8:38 pm

TJ airport is currently developing drawings for an international terminal. Here's a link to the architecture firm's webpage: https://www.lamela.com/en/proyectos/1466/ The idea is to have an "in-transit" type of area so people going into Mexico just to catch an international flight don't have to pass through Mexican customs and immigration. I'm surprised San Diego news outlets haven't picked up on this. One of the "in-transit" hallways from two gates is already completed. But construction hasn't started on the dedicated building that would be on the eastern most side of the airport.

Far in the future this may open the possibility for Volaris, let's say, to fly from TJ to points in the US. So effectively it could be just like cabotage. I remember Volaris used to fly TJ to Oakland. They also already fly to a lot of destinations in the US. I'd love to get other's people take on this possibility.

I'm hoping for Norwegian, AirAsia X, or AirEuropa to show up in TJ. I just paid about $400 more a ticket for flying from San Diego to Madrid versus flying out of LAX. Grrr.
 
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Aug 29, 2019 8:40 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
it does make you wonder if Frontier, Allegiant, and Spirit could operate short haul flights out of Brown field.


Nope. Not ever going to happen.

vedatil4 wrote:
The idea is to have an "in-transit" type of area so people going into Mexico just to catch an international flight don't have to pass through Mexican customs and immigration.


Never going to happen. US Customs won't let it happen.
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vedatil4
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:23 pm

vedatil4 wrote:
The idea is to have an "in-transit" type of area so people going into Mexico just to catch an international flight don't have to pass through Mexican customs and immigration.


Never going to happen. US Customs won't let it happen.[/quote]


I can see US customs and immigration checking people as they leave the US. They already have booths and x-ray machines at the CBX. But let's say, Cubana (gulp) or Emirates, chose to fly into TJ. I don't see how the US could stop those flights when the plane is landing in Mexico.

The "in-transit" type area would be Mexico choosing to have pedestrians coming from the US side via the CBX bridge onto a foreign plane without formally entering the country. I guess the devil's in the details but that's the goal anyway. The CBX owners want to have a fluid operation going through just US immigration and customs similar to an international arrival at LAX.

I read about people incoming from Guatemala were going through Mexican customs and immigration then after crossing the CBX as a pedestrian US customs and immigration. I also read stories of people bringing stuff from Guatemala not being able to enter Mexico with it. They'd say, "Hey, I'm only in Mexico for a few minutes as I walk to the US".

Lots of different scenarios are possible. What if someone's country stops existing as they land in TJ but haven't crossed into the US. Will they be in limbo forever like the movie The Terminal.

Anyway, I'm convinced San Diego will never have an airport at Miramar or Brown Field in my lifetime. Never, never, never. There I said it. I have to hang my hopes on this TJ international terminal idea. It's for San Diego's benefit but it's not being reported or explored at all. Even now the least San Diego could do is to alter, not add, an existing bus route just to take people to the CBX but that's not happening. Instead I've seen people walking about a mile from the CBX to reach the route 905 bus stop.
 
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:30 pm

vedatil4 wrote:
vedatil4 wrote:
The idea is to have an "in-transit" type of area so people going into Mexico just to catch an international flight don't have to pass through Mexican customs and immigration.


Never going to happen. US Customs won't let it happen.


I can see US customs and immigration checking people as they leave the US. They already have booths and x-ray machines at the CBX. But let's say, Cubana (gulp) or Emirates, chose to fly into TJ. I don't see how the US could stop those flights when the plane is landing in Mexico. [/quote]

It won't stop a flight from operating, that wasn't my point. They will have them clear Mexico first, just like they do now.
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:42 am

vedatil4 wrote:

Far in the future this may open the possibility for Volaris, let's say, to fly from TJ to points in the US. So effectively it could be just like cabotage. I remember Volaris used to fly TJ to Oakland. They also already fly to a lot of destinations in the US .


I figured that Volaris discontinued SAN because it made more sense to go to TIJ to catch Volaris flights to anywhere in Mexico, while Volaris discontinued TIJ-OAK because it made more sense to go to SAN and catch the many nonstops by WN to OAK. Another question. Why is everyone so keen about shifting all of our int'l flights to TIJ? What is the benefit?
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:35 am

vedatil4 wrote:
I just paid about $400 more a ticket for flying from San Diego to Madrid versus flying out of LAX. Grrr.


Are you comparing a TIJ airport to Madrid via Mexico City to a nonstop LAX-MAD?
5:01 pm TIJ -> 10:35 pm MEX 737-800 Duration – 3 hours, 34 minutes 1 hour layover
11:35 pm MEX -> 5:55 pm MAD 787-9 Dreamliner Duration – 11 hours, 20 minutes (15 hours, 54 minutes total)

5:50pm - 1:55pm +1 Flight spans 1 day Iberia 11h 5m (Nonstop LAX-MAD)

Or are you comparing a SAN airport to Madrid via a US hub to a nonstop LAX-MAD?

BTW I love Madrid.


vedatil4 wrote:
TJ airport is currently developing drawings for an international terminal. Here's a link to the architecture firm's webpage: https://www.lamela.com/en/proyectos/1466/ The idea is to have an "in-transit" type of area so people going into Mexico just to catch an international flight don't have to pass through Mexican customs and immigration. I'm surprised San Diego news outlets haven't picked up on this. One of the "in-transit" hallways from two gates is already completed. But construction hasn't started on the dedicated building that would be on the eastern most side of the airport.


I am not sure if I understand. Is there plans for Aeromexico to fly to Madrid or Paris for example from Tijuana, and US passengers could walk across CBX and get on the plane without passing through Mexico customs?

Or are you talking about the possibility of a jet from Madrid going to Tijuana and then there is a connecting flight from TIJ to Las Vegas (for example).

Or bothc
 
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:21 am

SANMAN66 wrote:
Why is everyone so keen about shifting all of our int'l flights to TIJ? What is the benefit?


It seems like there is a 3 or 4 way competition now to these two resort airports. I don't know how long SAN can keep competitive. TIJ has nonstops to 34 Mexican airports including colonial era cities and beach resorts.

From SAN: Puerto Vallarta, San José del Cabo (Southwest and Alaska Air) and Sun country to San José del Cabo seasonal
From TIJ: Puerto Vallarta, San José del Cabo (Volaris airline)

Just spot-checking prices for a week-long vacation this week shows the Volaris flight considerably cheaper than Southwest. More than enough to make up for the $32 CBX fee

Southwest flight costs $435.67
Departing 9/1/19 Sunday 9:55AM SAN -> 1:10PM SJD 2hr 15min
Returning 9/6/19 Friday 2:05 PM SJD -> 3:15PM SAN 2hr 10min

Volaris flight costs $239.23
Departure: Sun, 01 Sep, 2019 Tijuana 7:32 PM -> Los Cabos 10:41 PM 2hr 09min
Return: Fri, 06 Sep, 2019 Los Cabos 2:05 PM -> Tijuana 3:12 PM 2hr 07min
 
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DL717
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:40 am

PacoMartin wrote:
SANMAN66 wrote:
Why is everyone so keen about shifting all of our int'l flights to TIJ? What is the benefit?


It seems like there is a 3 or 4 way competition now to these two resort airports. I don't know how long SAN can keep competitive. TIJ has nonstops to 34 Mexican airports including colonial era cities and beach resorts.

From SAN: Puerto Vallarta, San José del Cabo (Southwest and Alaska Air) and Sun country to San José del Cabo seasonal
From TIJ: Puerto Vallarta, San José del Cabo (Volaris airline)

Just spot-checking prices for a week-long vacation this week shows the Volaris flight considerably cheaper than Southwest. More than enough to make up for the $32 CBX fee

Southwest flight costs $435.67
Departing 9/1/19 Sunday 9:55AM SAN -> 1:10PM SJD 2hr 15min
Returning 9/6/19 Friday 2:05 PM SJD -> 3:15PM SAN 2hr 10min

Volaris flight costs $239.23
Departure: Sun, 01 Sep, 2019 Tijuana 7:32 PM -> Los Cabos 10:41 PM 2hr 09min
Return: Fri, 06 Sep, 2019 Los Cabos 2:05 PM -> Tijuana 3:12 PM 2hr 07min


The service will remain at SAN because a large chunk of the populous will either a) not set foot in Mexico to fly or b) not set foot on a non US Airline. The Mexican carriers also have zero value to a US frequent flyer tied to WN or AS.

SANMAN66 wrote:
Why is everyone so keen about shifting all of our int'l flights to TIJ? What is the benefit?


They’re never going anywhere. Some people just like to imagine some alternate universe where ridiculously foolish decisions would be made by airlines because they like the concept of something that an airline wouldn’t even consider. I’m sure there are people that think the big three will start adding service to TJ from their hubs to serve San Diego. Nothing like flying DFW to San Diego then clearing customs 4 times. Twice inbound and twice outbound.
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vedatil4
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:05 am

DL717 wrote:
vedatil4 wrote:
vedatil4 wrote:
The idea is to have an "in-transit" type of area so people going into Mexico just to catch an international flight don't have to pass through Mexican customs and immigration.


Never going to happen. US Customs won't let it happen.


I can see US customs and immigration checking people as they leave the US. They already have booths and x-ray machines at the CBX. But let's say, Cubana (gulp) or Emirates, chose to fly into TJ. I don't see how the US could stop those flights when the plane is landing in Mexico.


It won't stop a flight from operating, that wasn't my point. They will have them clear Mexico first, just like they do now.[/quote]

Based on what I read about in-transit passengers at Mexico City airport, I think you're right. All passengers are checked by a Mexican immigration officer there. When I've used the CBX, that's where time is wasted because people don't come fully prepared and they don't have enough officers working the booths. I was hoping to avoid Mexico officials with the new terminal. On Fridays before three day weekends it's getting to the point where it's better just to take a taxi to TJ airport on the way south. On the northbound return, the CBX bridge is still the best option for getting back by a wide margin.

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