TSA125
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What's next for ORD-Asia? (2019 & beyond)

Sat Dec 22, 2018 8:39 pm

This has been an ongoing discussion for as long as I can remember, but I wanted to try and consolidate it it to a single thread dedicated to the subject.

Naturally a large part of this has to do with East and Southeast Asia, but I also invite you to consider the Middle East (i.e. TLV) and South Asia, etc.

My primary question would be whether ORD is capable of maintaining even a couple weekly frequencies to Guangzhou and secondary cities in China (i.e. Chengdu, Chongqing, Xi'an, etc.) Considering how UA fared with SFO-CTU, and AA with ORD-PEK, I'd reckon HU would be the more likely existing carrier to expand ORD-China.

Also, would it be outlandish to consider ORD as CI's next US target from TPE?
No not that TSA.
 
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janders
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Re: What's next for ORD-Asia? (2019 & beyond)

Sat Dec 22, 2018 9:49 pm

Hainan recently applied for CTU-ORD >> viewtopic.php?t=1410473

One issue is that Chicago on its own is not exactly the biggest O&D market out there for destinations to Asia, so a good deal of traffic will rely on connections, so it does limit what carriers/routes are viable with AA/UA hubbing at ORD.

Also obviously AA has pretty indicated their own performance to Asia has been terrible from ORD dropping both PEK and PVG, while reducing NRT frequency, so not sure they have any appetite to try new things.
"We make war that we may live in peace." -- Aristotle
 
airplanedaj
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Re: What's next for ORD-Asia? (2019 & beyond)

Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:43 pm

Might AA try ORD-China again maybe in 2020-2022 range? A couple things may help them if they try again in a few years, perhaps a more cozy relationship with China Southern and the new Beijing Airport. Perhaps 5x ORD-PEK codeshared with China Southern? Regardless they will need help of some sort to re-enter ORD-China
 
nomorerjs
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Re: What's next for ORD-Asia? (2019 & beyond)

Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:57 pm

UA: ORD-ICN with a morning departure. UA and OZ are in *, but OZ leaves at midnight.

SQ: ORD-SIN either nonstop or via Asia, not via Amsterdam.

AA: NRT daily

JL: HND in 2020, unless AA goes for this (unlikely as DFW is a lock for HND).

CI: Not likely, TPE is low yielding and EVA is alrefy in the route.

PR: Rumored, but this would depress yields even more.

Chinese to secondary cities: CTU has been mentioned, but zields are already in the toilet.

TLV / Russia / Ukraine (if considered Asia). TLV will start when MIA gets its NRT nonstop. Russia? Only if S7 tries. KBP has traffic, but at what yields?

Not much more. ORD is overserved to Asia for a city it’s size, even with 2 hub carriers (with one conceding Asia is a failure).
Last edited by nomorerjs on Sat Dec 22, 2018 11:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
TheKennady2
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Re: What's next for ORD-Asia? (2019 & beyond)

Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:59 pm

ORD-MNL has been rumored with PR getting new planes and having served ORD in the past. 3-4 times weekly may work.

ORD-SIN i would love to see, with SFO, LAX, and EWR having nonstops. The next logical Add would be ORD. I dont know what the PDEW is for ORD-SIN but SQ could realistically fly it given the right aircraft, or Maybe UA?

ORD-CAN on CZ? CZ is leaving Skyteam and working with AA, if AA could provide ORD connections then ORD-CAN could work but i dont know how CX would fare against more competition.

AA could bring back ORD-PEK/PVG if they can find a partner at one if those airports but fares already in the tank competing with subsidized Chinese carriers and a established UA.

ORD-TLV and ORD-SVO/DME i would think have to get some serious consideration eventually. ORD is well positioned to support connections to and from these markerts and there is some local demand.
 
TSA125
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Re: What's next for ORD-Asia? (2019 & beyond)

Sun Dec 23, 2018 1:42 am

airplanedaj wrote:
Perhaps 5x ORD-PEK codeshared with China Southern? Regardless they will need help of some sort to re-enter ORD-China


TheKennady2 wrote:
ORD-CAN on CZ? CZ is leaving Skyteam and working with AA, if AA could provide ORD connections then ORD-CAN could work but i dont know how CX would fare against more competition.


CZ definitely seems like the most likely to enter Chicago from the Chinese carriers. If this swap to OW really comes into fruition, there will be all the more reason. CZ is a massive airline and they could surely serve ORD even with a 788.
No not that TSA.
 
B1168
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Re: What's next for ORD-Asia? (2019 & beyond)

Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:15 am

airplanedaj wrote:
Might AA try ORD-China again maybe in 2020-2022 range? A couple things may help them if they try again in a few years, perhaps a more cozy relationship with China Southern and the new Beijing Airport. Perhaps 5x ORD-PEK codeshared with China Southern? Regardless they will need help of some sort to re-enter ORD-China


AA applied to freeze the daily to PEK and PVG till 06/29/19. My guess is:
1) If both are granted, both will be operated (in ZBAD upon completion); transfer PVG to PHL-PEK in mid-2020, when the first batch of 788 as 332 successor for PHL arrive;
2) If only 1 daily is granted (which means 2nd EWR-PVG&MSP-PVG are both granted), PEK/ZBAD will be the one to keep.
3) That exclusive daily for CAN? Not here, forget it.
4) Second-tier city? Again, forget it.
 
B1168
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Re: What's next for ORD-Asia? (2019 & beyond)

Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:18 am

TSA125 wrote:
airplanedaj wrote:
Perhaps 5x ORD-PEK codeshared with China Southern? Regardless they will need help of some sort to re-enter ORD-China


TheKennady2 wrote:
ORD-CAN on CZ? CZ is leaving Skyteam and working with AA, if AA could provide ORD connections then ORD-CAN could work but i dont know how CX would fare against more competition.


CZ definitely seems like the most likely to enter Chicago from the Chinese carriers. If this swap to OW really comes into fruition, there will be all the more reason. CZ is a massive airline and they could surely serve ORD even with a 788.


You are making a point. However, it is highly unlikely that, without a JV, fundamental change on TPAC traffic schedule of CZ or an sino-American opensky agreement, CZ can’t violate the current agreement by thrusting new flights in the already fully used 160 weekly slots.
 
B1168
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Re: What's next for ORD-Asia? (2019 & beyond)

Sun Dec 23, 2018 3:24 am

Another question. What about TLV-ORD?
 
binayak
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Re: What's next for ORD-Asia? (2019 & beyond)

Sun Dec 23, 2018 7:05 am

ORD - BOM / DEL can be a possibility. Well the latter is already served 7x weekly.
The best preparation for tomorrow is doing your best today
 
TSA125
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Re: What's next for ORD-Asia? (2019 & beyond)

Sun Dec 23, 2018 8:39 am

binayak wrote:
ORD - BOM / DEL can be a possibility. Well the latter is already served 7x weekly.


BOM, at least in the short term, wouldn't likely be touched by UA. AA, on the other hand, could look into using their existing 788 fleet at ORD to explore that option. They were flying a 77E daily ORD-DEL not too long ago.
No not that TSA.
 
binayak
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Re: What's next for ORD-Asia? (2019 & beyond)

Sun Dec 23, 2018 9:20 am

TSA125 wrote:

BOM, at least in the short term, wouldn't likely be touched by UA. AA, on the other hand, could look into using their existing 788 fleet at ORD to explore that option. They were flying a 77E daily ORD-DEL not too long ago.


The 788 won't be able to make ORD BOM. The 787-9 can. In fact it has the perfect configuration for an ORD India flight.
The best preparation for tomorrow is doing your best today
 
B1168
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Re: What's next for ORD-Asia? (2019 & beyond)

Sun Dec 23, 2018 5:29 pm

binayak wrote:
TSA125 wrote:

BOM, at least in the short term, wouldn't likely be touched by UA. AA, on the other hand, could look into using their existing 788 fleet at ORD to explore that option. They were flying a 77E daily ORD-DEL not too long ago.


The 788 won't be able to make ORD BOM. The 787-9 can. In fact it has the perfect configuration for an ORD India flight.


Agreed. So, do we have any potential flyers of that routes, like Indian companies or residents in Chicago?
 
Planeboy17
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Re: What's next for ORD-Asia? (2019 & beyond)

Sun Dec 23, 2018 6:14 pm

nomorerjs wrote:
UA: ORD-ICN with a morning departure. UA and OZ are in *, but OZ leaves at midnight.

SQ: ORD-SIN either nonstop or via Asia, not via Amsterdam.

AA: NRT daily

JL: HND in 2020, unless AA goes for this (unlikely as DFW is a lock for HND).

CI: Not likely, TPE is low yielding and EVA is alrefy in the route.

PR: Rumored, but this would depress yields even more.

Chinese to secondary cities: CTU has been mentioned, but zields are already in the toilet.

TLV / Russia / Ukraine (if considered Asia). TLV will start when MIA gets its NRT nonstop. Russia? Only if S7 tries. KBP has traffic, but at what yields?


Not much more. ORD is overserved to Asia for a city it’s size, even with 2 hub carriers (with one conceding Asia is a failure).

What does MIA-NRT have to do with ORD-TLV?
CTU hasn’t just been mentioned, it’s actually been applied for. That doesn’t mean the yields aren’t trash but apparently HU thinks it will work.
S7 has no widebody aircraft. They’re not flying anywhere in the US anytime soon.
Ukraine International has publically stated ORD is on their radar. They chose YYZ for this summer but I can see ORD being added sometime in the near future as long as there still is an independent Ukraine in the future.

B1168 wrote:
airplanedaj wrote:
Might AA try ORD-China again maybe in 2020-2022 range? A couple things may help them if they try again in a few years, perhaps a more cozy relationship with China Southern and the new Beijing Airport. Perhaps 5x ORD-PEK codeshared with China Southern? Regardless they will need help of some sort to re-enter ORD-China


AA applied to freeze the daily to PEK and PVG till 06/29/19. My guess is:
1) If both are granted, both will be operated (in ZBAD upon completion); transfer PVG to PHL-PEK in mid-2020, when the first batch of 788 as 332 successor for PHL arrive;
2) If only 1 daily is granted (which means 2nd EWR-PVG&MSP-PVG are both granted), PEK/ZBAD will be the one to keep.
3) That exclusive daily for CAN? Not here, forget it.
4) Second-tier city? Again, forget it.


Why would AA try PHL-China when they haven’t even tried NRT? They have no non stop competition, a partner on the NRT side in JAL and arguably the best aircraft for this flight in a 788. What makes you think China would work if AA won’t even try PHL- NRT?
Not to mention they lost their shirts from ORD even though ORD is a larger market, larger hub, and better connecting options based on its geographic position. ORD of course has much more competition but I don’t see how that alone will make PHL work. I think we will continue to see DL and AA struggle with China flying outside of west coast ( LA, SEA ) and their strongest hubs ( DFW DTW). UA even has had trouble establishing second tier Chinese cities from SFO. We’ll see how DL fares with their new ATL-PVG flight this time around and if AA tries even more out of DFW with these frequencies but given their reluctance to use them right now from anywhere in their system I think is telling.
The amount of Chinese airlines and routes to the US the last 10 years is pretty amazing and I don’t think it’s going to slow down much especially if the Chinese government changes the one carrier rule as has been talked about. The US carriers are going to have a tougher time going forward even from large profitable cities such as SFO and LAX.
Just my 2 cents
 
_AA_777_MAN
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Re: What's next for ORD-Asia? (2019 & beyond)

Sun Dec 23, 2018 6:29 pm

binayak wrote:
The 788 won't be able to make ORD BOM. The 787-9 can. In fact it has the perfect configuration for an ORD India flight.



Just wondering on what grounds will the 788 not make ORD-BOM? Distance is 7,000 NM.
 
dixieblue15
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Re: What's next for ORD-Asia? (2019 & beyond)

Sun Dec 23, 2018 6:50 pm

nomorerjs wrote:

PR: Rumored, but this would depress yields even more.


TheKennady2 wrote:
ORD-MNL has been rumored with PR getting new planes and having served ORD in the past. 3-4 times weekly may work.


Philippine Airlines just secured slots for ORD and SEA. PR is coming back to Chicagoland sometime in 2019.
 
timberwolf24
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Re: What's next for ORD-Asia? (2019 & beyond)

Sun Dec 23, 2018 7:03 pm

nomorerjs wrote:
CI: Not likely, TPE is low yielding and EVA is alrefy in the route.


I read an article several moths back where the CEO of CI said that as more A350 are delivered CI would add ORD to their network. We shall see if that happens.
Living in LA, ORD/MDW will always be home!
 
_AA_777_MAN
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Re: What's next for ORD-Asia? (2019 & beyond)

Sun Dec 23, 2018 8:44 pm

Isn't JL picking up the slack for AA on the Tokyo--Chicago route? Supposed to be 4x weekly 788 starting sometime in the spring. Just not clear however if it'll be HND or NRT.
 
VTORD
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Re: What's next for ORD-Asia? (2019 & beyond)

Sun Dec 23, 2018 8:50 pm

B1168 wrote:
Agreed. So, do we have any potential flyers of that routes, like Indian companies or residents in Chicago?

The NW suburbs surrounding ORD have a very large Indian population. And many IT companies have a large client base in the area eg., TCS with AC Nielsen. Plus pax could be funneled in from the likes of IND, MKE, MSP, STL for a non-stop BOM flight. It would free up some capacity on UA48/49 for more NY pax.
It will however affect at some level the codeshare with LH via FRA. It’s a very popular routing to BOM. I am of course assuming UA as the airline of choice here.
 
TheKennady2
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Re: What's next for ORD-Asia? (2019 & beyond)

Sun Dec 23, 2018 8:51 pm

dixieblue15 wrote:
nomorerjs wrote:

PR: Rumored, but this would depress yields even more.


TheKennady2 wrote:
ORD-MNL has been rumored with PR getting new planes and having served ORD in the past. 3-4 times weekly may work.


Philippine Airlines just secured slots for ORD and SEA. PR is coming back to Chicagoland sometime in 2019.


Nice to hear, good to see new service but gosh i hate Manilla's Airport, A359 should be able to make this work though unless its one stop.
 
trex8
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Re: What's next for ORD-Asia? (2019 & beyond)

Sun Dec 23, 2018 10:29 pm

timberwolf24 wrote:
nomorerjs wrote:
CI: Not likely, TPE is low yielding and EVA is alrefy in the route.


I read an article several moths back where the CEO of CI said that as more A350 are delivered CI would add ORD to their network. We shall see if that happens.

The last of CIs 14 A359s were delivered in Oct. They do have 6 options which the CEO has said in past have to be exercised by end of this year. Given how many carriers fly from ORD to NE Asia I doubt CI would want to get into that mess. Supposedly JFK with a 77W 4/week is not profitable for them. I see them trying to go for more second tier US markets if any new N America flights. Regional NE Asia and Euro routes are profitable but N America is a drag - at least passengers. They may need a smaller plane like a 788 or A338 first to make new N America flights work.
 
B1168
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Re: What's next for ORD-Asia? (2019 & beyond)

Sun Dec 23, 2018 11:26 pm

VTORD wrote:
B1168 wrote:
Agreed. So, do we have any potential flyers of that routes, like Indian companies or residents in Chicago?

The NW suburbs surrounding ORD have a very large Indian population. And many IT companies have a large client base in the area eg., TCS with AC Nielsen. Plus pax could be funneled in from the likes of IND, MKE, MSP, STL for a non-stop BOM flight. It would free up some capacity on UA48/49 for more NY pax.
It will however affect at some level the codeshare with LH via FRA. It’s a very popular routing to BOM. I am of course assuming UA as the airline of choice here.


Demographics can hugely affect the feasibility of a flight. Based on that, one more question remains: are there any obstancles that makes it impossible, i.e., limited slots allocated by bilateral aviation agreements, lack of suitable planes, etc.?
 
nomorerjs
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Re: What's next for ORD-Asia? (2019 & beyond)

Sun Dec 23, 2018 11:40 pm

B1168 wrote:
airplanedaj wrote:
Might AA try ORD-China again maybe in 2020-2022 range? A couple things may help them if they try again in a few years, perhaps a more cozy relationship with China Southern and the new Beijing Airport. Perhaps 5x ORD-PEK codeshared with China Southern? Regardless they will need help of some sort to re-enter ORD-China


AA applied to freeze the daily to PEK and PVG till 06/29/19. My guess is:
1) If both are granted, both will be operated (in ZBAD upon completion); transfer PVG to PHL-PEK in mid-2020, when the first batch of 788 as 332 successor for PHL arrive;
2) If only 1 daily is granted (which means 2nd EWR-PVG&MSP-PVG are both granted), PEK/ZBAD will be the one to keep.
3) That exclusive daily for CAN? Not here, forget it.
4) Second-tier city? Again, forget it.


This obsession with PHL becoming the next hub to Asia is insane! ORD-NRT has significant O&D and premium traffic. If AA can’t make it work, what does PHL have to offers? PHL-China is even more ridiculous.

Based on PHL logic, AA should move DBV, PRG, and BLQ to ORD as there is no competition.
 
B1168
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Re: What's next for ORD-Asia? (2019 & beyond)

Sun Dec 23, 2018 11:53 pm

nomorerjs wrote:
B1168 wrote:
airplanedaj wrote:
Might AA try ORD-China again maybe in 2020-2022 range? A couple things may help them if they try again in a few years, perhaps a more cozy relationship with China Southern and the new Beijing Airport. Perhaps 5x ORD-PEK codeshared with China Southern? Regardless they will need help of some sort to re-enter ORD-China


AA applied to freeze the daily to PEK and PVG till 06/29/19. My guess is:
1) If both are granted, both will be operated (in ZBAD upon completion); transfer PVG to PHL-PEK in mid-2020, when the first batch of 788 as 332 successor for PHL arrive;
2) If only 1 daily is granted (which means 2nd EWR-PVG&MSP-PVG are both granted), PEK/ZBAD will be the one to keep.
3) That exclusive daily for CAN? Not here, forget it.
4) Second-tier city? Again, forget it.


This obsession with PHL becoming the next hub to Asia is insane! ORD-NRT has significant O&D and premium traffic. If AA can’t make it work, what does PHL have to offers? PHL-China is even more ridiculous.

Based on PHL logic, AA should move DBV, PRG, and BLQ to ORD as there is no competition.


Yeah. That is some of those talks I read in other forums. But, yeah, that just sound unlikely.
However, is it possible to have PHL-NRT,788, 3 weekly, starting 2020?
And, out of curiosity, can Chicago get 2nd daily to the Middle East? Any relevant data will be appreciated.
Finally, more explanation on how the assumption goes “insane”, please.
 
Planeboy17
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Re: What's next for ORD-Asia? (2019 & beyond)

Mon Dec 24, 2018 4:59 am

_AA_777_MAN wrote:
Isn't JL picking up the slack for AA on the Tokyo--Chicago route? Supposed to be 4x weekly 788 starting sometime in the spring. Just not clear however if it'll be HND or NRT.

Yes it will run on the 4 days that AA will not fly and it will be to NRT.
 
Planeboy17
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Re: What's next for ORD-Asia? (2019 & beyond)

Mon Dec 24, 2018 5:27 am

B1168 wrote:
nomorerjs wrote:
B1168 wrote:

AA applied to freeze the daily to PEK and PVG till 06/29/19. My guess is:
1) If both are granted, both will be operated (in ZBAD upon completion); transfer PVG to PHL-PEK in mid-2020, when the first batch of 788 as 332 successor for PHL arrive;
2) If only 1 daily is granted (which means 2nd EWR-PVG&MSP-PVG are both granted), PEK/ZBAD will be the one to keep.
3) That exclusive daily for CAN? Not here, forget it.
4) Second-tier city? Again, forget it.


This obsession with PHL becoming the next hub to Asia is insane! ORD-NRT has significant O&D and premium traffic. If AA can’t make it work, what does PHL have to offers? PHL-China is even more ridiculous.

Based on PHL logic, AA should move DBV, PRG, and BLQ to ORD as there is no competition.


Yeah. That is some of those talks I read in other forums. But, yeah, that just sound unlikely.
However, is it possible to have PHL-NRT,788, 3 weekly, starting 2020?

And, out of curiosity, can Chicago get 2nd daily to the Middle East? Any relevant data will be appreciated.
Finally, more explanation on how the assumption goes “insane”, please.

Of course it’s possible to launch PHL-NRT next year, it’s been possible for a long time. That’s the point, US/AA haven’t launched PHL-NRT yet why would AA launch PHL-China?
I don’t understand what your asking about a second daily to the ME. ORD has a daily flight to AMM on RJ, a daily to DOH on QR, a daily to AUH on EY and a daily to DXB on EK. There’s also rumors of LY starting next year but I doubt it would be daily to start and until they actually pull into a gate at T5 it’s just a rumor.
 
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Devilfish
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Re: What's next for ORD-Asia? (2019 & beyond)

Mon Dec 24, 2018 5:11 pm

dixieblue15 wrote:
Philippine Airlines just secured slots for ORD and SEA. PR is coming back to Chicagoland sometime in 2019.

TheKennady2 wrote:
Nice to hear, good to see new service but gosh i hate Manilla's Airport

Until this is finished, it'd be MNL and CRK for the near term.....

https://business.inquirer.net/262693/bu ... rded-in-q1

TheKennady2 wrote:
A359 should be able to make this work though unless its one stop.

I think PR has a better chance of sustaining ORD if they'd route it via YVR as a replacement for the JFK tag. Meantime, there's no indication yet that PR would exercise its A359 options and that subfleet is stretched very thinly servicing JFK, LHR and the second frequency to LAX (unless they make SFO and LAX all-77W even during off season).

trex8 wrote:
They may need a smaller plane like a 788 or A338 first to make new N America flights work.

Maybe PR is also considering the A338 for its foray into ORD and SEA :?: That plane is substantially cheaper than the A359 and has the range, RR's T7000 has just gained 330m ETOPS approval, and type certification for the combo is expected by mid-2019. PR could well start with something else, to test the waters, so to speak.
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
jcwr56
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Re: What's next for ORD-Asia? (2019 & beyond)

Mon Dec 24, 2018 7:10 pm

dixieblue15 wrote:
nomorerjs wrote:

PR: Rumored, but this would depress yields even more.


TheKennady2 wrote:
ORD-MNL has been rumored with PR getting new planes and having served ORD in the past. 3-4 times weekly may work.


Philippine Airlines just secured slots for ORD and SEA. PR is coming back to Chicagoland sometime in 2019.


Source? I'm not aware of anything being approved by Chicago.
 
sabby
Posts: 354
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Re: What's next for ORD-Asia? (2019 & beyond)

Tue Dec 25, 2018 5:26 am

_AA_777_MAN wrote:
binayak wrote:
The 788 won't be able to make ORD BOM. The 787-9 can. In fact it has the perfect configuration for an ORD India flight.



Just wondering on what grounds will the 788 not make ORD-BOM? Distance is 7,000 NM.


The latest 788 frames have ~7300nm range but that is for still air and standard Boeing config. In reality, if you consider the westbound legs in winter and 30 minutes reserve, the effective range becomes in the vicinity of ~6500nm. The longest route flown by 788 today is 6975nm from PVG to MEX but that is east bound. The west bound flight has a stop in TIJ and then continue to PVG for 5745nm. And on top of that, Air India 788 are the first gen so they are heavier and the range is much lesser so they can't make the BOM-ORD non-stop.

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