Happy new year from Finland! Let's start 2019 by removing

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1382383&p=20962741&hilit=nordic+aviation#p20962741

to this new thread.

I have a question about how passenger numbers are counted at new year's eve. Eg AY143 departs at 0040, but check in naturally closes before midnight, so are pax calculated as 2018 or 2019? Or if AY131, scheduled for 2355, would be delayed until after midnight, would they still be 2018 pax?

I'm not 100% sure but I'd hazard a guess and say it goes on scheduled departure time. So in your examples AY143 departing at 0040 is counted as 2019. And AY131 departing at 2355 is counted as 2018 even if there is a delay keeping it on the ground past midnight.

Yeah, as vhqpa said, I think it goes on scheduled departure time.

Happy New Year everyone!

vhqpa wrote:

I'm not 100% sure but I'd hazard a guess and say it goes on scheduled departure time. So in your examples AY143 departing at 0040 is counted as 2019. And AY131 departing at 2355 is counted as 2018 even if there is a delay keeping it on the ground past midnight.

That's what I thought too. Anyway, AY seems to have AY143 to BKK as a permanent all-year service. There's no official curfew at HEL so they are able to have a late night bank to some Asian and Russian destinations.

TUI Airways will fly four Oslo – Mauritius flights in 1Q19, all with Boeing 787-8.

Routesonline

Finnair’s possible W19 long-haul service changes

Happy New Year!

It’s the New Year again which means that Finnair is presumably soon going to announce long-haul service changes for the 2019/2020 winter season. Last year, the changes were reported on January 10th. What changes do you expect?

By the next winter season, Finnair will receive two Airbus A350 aircraft. So far, the only change having been made is to Hong Kong -route, an increase of weekly flights from 12 to 14 weekly. If a totally new destination will be announced, it would probably be in Southeast Asia, let’s say Sapporo, Manila, Cebu, Kuala Lumpur, Mumbai, Chennai, Colombo, or Denpasar. Any expansion in Latin America we won’t likely see and at the moment, I don’t really see Finnair adding new destinations for the next winter season.

Additional weekly flights will probably be added to U.S routes and Asian destinations such as Tokyo and Guangzhou. Los Angeles might be extended to year-round service with 3x weekly A350 flights. San Francisco and Chicago may also see year-round operations, both initially 2x weekly during the entire winter season. The Airbus A330 operating on the Delhi -route could be moved to SFO and ORD while A350 would fly daily to DEL. Given the recent growth to Tokyo in both capacity and passenger volume, I wouldn’t be surprised if AY increased flights to NRT to 9 or 10 weekly. And finally, if the prospective partnership with China Southern comes into effect, I could see Finnair expanding CAN to the year-round service but with a reduced number of weekly flights, e.g. 3x weekly.

Simplified:

Chicago O’Hare — extended to year-round service, 2x weekly with A330
Delhi — A350 replaces A330, daily
Guangzhou — extended to year-round service, 3x weekly with A330/A350
Los Angeles — extended to year-round service, 3x weekly with A350
San Francisco — extended to year-round service, 2x weekly with A330
Tokyo Narita — increase from 7 to 9 weekly, operated with A350.

These changes I would like to see occur. Of course, the long-haul service changes on Asian routes highly depends on Russian overflight permits and I am not sure whether there are unused ones but probably enough for 5 additional weekly flights.

So, what do you think?

AY's HEL- LAX service (starting in March 2019), already year round.

Finnaviation wrote:

AY's HEL- LAX service (starting in March 2019), already year round.

According to Finnair, LAX is served between 31 March 2019 and 22 December 2019.

See: Finnair - Flights to Los Angeles

QuawerAir wrote:

Finnaviation wrote:

AY's HEL- LAX service (starting in March 2019), already year round.

According to Finnair, LAX is served between 31 March 2019 and 22 December 2019.

See: Finnair - Flights to Los Angeles

If the season is so long, why not extend it at least into the first week of January in order to fly the whole busy Christmas/New Years period? Kind of odd to end it on 22DEC.

B747forever wrote:

QuawerAir wrote:

Finnaviation wrote:

AY's HEL- LAX service (starting in March 2019), already year round.

According to Finnair, LAX is served between 31 March 2019 and 22 December 2019.

See: Finnair - Flights to Los Angeles

If the season is so long, why not extend it at least into the first week of January in order to fly the whole busy Christmas/New Years period? Kind of odd to end it on 22DEC.

True. I believe Finnair will extend the LAX service to year-round soon though, probably already this year.

QuawerAir wrote:

Finnaviation wrote:

AY's HEL- LAX service (starting in March 2019), already year round.

According to Finnair, LAX is served between 31 March 2019 and 22 December 2019.

See: Finnair - Flights to Los Angeles

It's only because AY's booking engine allows 360 day ahead bookings. You can book today LAX-HEL AY002 on 26DEC2019

Finnaviation wrote:

QuawerAir wrote:

Finnaviation wrote:

AY's HEL- LAX service (starting in March 2019), already year round.

According to Finnair, LAX is served between 31 March 2019 and 22 December 2019.

See: Finnair - Flights to Los Angeles

It's only because AY's booking engine allows 360 day ahead bookings. You can book today LAX-HEL AY002 on 26DEC2019

Apparently. I'd be happy if the route is already year-round. It's been unclear whether or not the route is year-round since for example Finnair's previous CCO, Juha Järvinen said the route is year-round but the CFO Pekka Vähähyyppä has said the route is seasonal.

In another threads people were betting on Norwegian to go belly up by Jan 1st.

They still seem to be flying, so what is the situation really ? And did they manage to rescue that MAX8 from Iran ?

Any chance of AY doing seasonal service HEL-BOS-HEL 2x or 3x in the next year or two?

georgiabill wrote:

Any chance of AY doing seasonal service HEL-BOS-HEL 2x or 3x in the next year or two?

Would be great, and returning to Toronto too.

ilari wrote:

georgiabill wrote:

Any chance of AY doing seasonal service HEL-BOS-HEL 2x or 3x in the next year or two?

Would be great, and returning to Toronto too.

I think there's a chance of Finnair serving BOS. However, the O/D traffic between Finland and Boston isn't significant so the route could work only if there's much connecting traffic. Today (Jan 1, 2019), it was said on Lentoposti that in addition to Asia, Finnair plans to gain growth from North America as well. Thus, YYZ could also be possible in the future. BOS and YYZ were both served by AY within the last 10 years.

Do we know now that WOW is moving its 2daily flight from LGW to STN if Icelandair or Easy will increase flights from LGW? So far Easy has a miserable 2w and FI just one daily..It's a big decrease..Maybe NO will step up and start flights to KEF?

And SAS will recieve their first A350s this year (as well as an A330 that will be used to retire an A340), so what new routes might we see SAS announce?

marcogr12 wrote:

Do we know now that WOW is moving its 2daily flight from LGW to STN if Icelandair or Easy will increase flights from LGW? So far Easy has a miserable 2w and FI just one daily..It's a big decrease..Maybe NO will step up and start flights to KEF?

Norwegian already operated the route from 2014 until October 2018. I think it's evident LON-KEF is getting oversaturated, even though WOW is pulling out of LGW we still have:

LHR: 2x daily 767 + 757 on FI, 7-11x weekly on BA depending on season
LGW: daily 757/7M8 on FI, 2-7x weekly 32S on U2 depending on season
STN: daily 321 on WW, seasonal 32S on U2
LTN: daily 32S on U2, daily 320 on W6
LCY: 2-3x weekly E90 on BA depending on season

While I love having as many options as I can from my home airport, I think the most additional service I can see to London in the near future are some tweaks by Easy and just maybe a 3x weekly MAX to LGW on FI in the new summer bank (depart KEF at 10am, return at 6pm).

Well SRQKEF i do hope with the arrival of the MAXs that FI does start looking to connect KEF with S.Europe and start expanding to Italy,Malta,Greece,Cyprus ,seasonally mostly,a job done by Primera until last summer

Bostrom wrote:

And SAS will recieve their first A350s this year (as well as an A330 that will be used to retire an A340), so what new routes might we see SAS announce?

I really don't think that SAS will add any new LH routes until late 2020 at the earliest. When the first one arrives it will be the "odd one out" for a while and it will most likely be used on crew familiarization flights on European routes out of CPH. When number 2 and 3 arrives they'll be rolled out slowly on the current LH routes, likely CPH-NRT/HKG/SFO as they're cargo heavy routes and HKG & NRT have been mentioned by SAS themselves as possible starter routes. First when SAS know the A350s properly, their reliability, fuel burn, overall performance etc. they'll open new routes. After that I think that routes like CPH-SEA/JNB/GIG are possible also something like ARN-NRT not all on A350s but also on A330s/A340 released from other routes

Will we see SK order any A231NEO/LRs this year? With AY and Norwegian adding more of the new A321 variants to their fleet, what is stopping SK?

SASViking wrote:

I really don't think that SAS will add any new LH routes until late 2020 at the earliest. When the first one arrives it will be the "odd one out" for a while and it will most likely be used on crew familiarization flights on European routes out of CPH. When number 2 and 3 arrives they'll be rolled out slowly on the current LH routes, likely CPH-NRT/HKG/SFO as they're cargo heavy routes and HKG & NRT have been mentioned by SAS themselves as possible starter routes. First when SAS know the A350s properly, their reliability, fuel burn, overall performance etc. they'll open new routes. After that I think that routes like CPH-SEA/JNB/GIG are possible also something like ARN-NRT not all on A350s but also on A330s/A340 released from other routes

If I'm not mistaken they will recieve two A350s this year, which should free up at least one A340 that can be used on a new route. And even if the new route doesn't start until 2020, it might be announced in 2019?

Bostrom wrote:

SASViking wrote:

I really don't think that SAS will add any new LH routes until late 2020 at the earliest. When the first one arrives it will be the "odd one out" for a while and it will most likely be used on crew familiarization flights on European routes out of CPH. When number 2 and 3 arrives they'll be rolled out slowly on the current LH routes, likely CPH-NRT/HKG/SFO as they're cargo heavy routes and HKG & NRT have been mentioned by SAS themselves as possible starter routes. First when SAS know the A350s properly, their reliability, fuel burn, overall performance etc. they'll open new routes. After that I think that routes like CPH-SEA/JNB/GIG are possible also something like ARN-NRT not all on A350s but also on A330s/A340 released from other routes

If I'm not mistaken they will recieve two A350s this year, which should free up at least one A340 that can be used on a new route. And even if the new route doesn't start until 2020, it might be announced in 2019?

If I recall correctly, SAS will receive the first A350 in the 2nd half of the year. Could CPH-GRU and CPH-IAH work for SAS? I think at least CPH-ICN and OSL-ORD could work.

Bostrom wrote:

SASViking wrote:

I really don't think that SAS will add any new LH routes until late 2020 at the earliest. When the first one arrives it will be the "odd one out" for a while and it will most likely be used on crew familiarization flights on European routes out of CPH. When number 2 and 3 arrives they'll be rolled out slowly on the current LH routes, likely CPH-NRT/HKG/SFO as they're cargo heavy routes and HKG & NRT have been mentioned by SAS themselves as possible starter routes. First when SAS know the A350s properly, their reliability, fuel burn, overall performance etc. they'll open new routes. After that I think that routes like CPH-SEA/JNB/GIG are possible also something like ARN-NRT not all on A350s but also on A330s/A340 released from other routes

If I'm not mistaken they will recieve two A350s this year, which should free up at least one A340 that can be used on a new route. And even if the new route doesn't start until 2020, it might be announced in 2019?

As far as I know, the first A350 will be delivered in November/December of this year. The second and third is expected in spring 2020 and the fourth is expected in autumn/winter 2020. The remaining 4 will be delivered during 2021.

For SAS to open a new LH route would take more than one aircraft, as their current LH schedule is very tight with the numbers of A330s/A340s available. And when the A350s are rolled out on the current network they'll likely use the replaced A330/A340(s) as spare in the case of issues.

We also don't know what will happen with the old A330s and A340s, apart from LN-RKP that is going soon when the fifth A330E arrives, once the A350s are delivered. Will they keep them all or will they replace some of them? That's also a factor in the case of new routes.

As I said they also need to know how the A350s perform. If the A350s, for what ever reason, don't perform well on certain routes the A330/A340s would have to take over again on those routes.

There are so many factors to take into consideration when opening new routes and getting new aircraft delivered, that it's to early now to take mayor steps with them, especially when SAS' LH fleet and route network is as fragile as it is.

Isn’t for instance ICN within a a 24 hour turnaround? Even with a safe margin? And with that why is more than one aircraft needed?

QuawerAir wrote:

If I recall correctly, SAS will receive the first A350 in the 2nd half of the year. Could CPH-GRU and CPH-IAH work for SAS? I think at least CPH-ICN and OSL-ORD could work.

They have said earlier that they are focusing on the northern hemisphere, but I guess plans can change. ICN seems pretty likely, maybe YYZ as well as SAS has no flights to Canada and probably loses traffic to other airlines. Or maybe CPH-BOS becomes daily?

tkoenig95 wrote:

Will we see SK order any A231NEO/LRs this year? With AY and Norwegian adding more of the new A321 variants to their fleet, what is stopping SK?

I'd love to see part of the A320neo-order converted to A321neo. Not sure if it will happen though.

Bostrom wrote:

QuawerAir wrote:

If I recall correctly, SAS will receive the first A350 in the 2nd half of the year. Could CPH-GRU and CPH-IAH work for SAS? I think at least CPH-ICN and OSL-ORD could work.

They have said earlier that they are focusing on the northern hemisphere, but I guess plans can change. ICN seems pretty likely, maybe YYZ as well as SAS has no flights to Canada and probably loses traffic to other airlines. Or maybe CPH-BOS becomes daily?

I think SAS might launch flights to YYZ from ARN rather than from CPH since Air Canada already operates to CPH. And BOS will be daily in S19.

QuawerAir wrote:

Bostrom wrote:

QuawerAir wrote:

If I recall correctly, SAS will receive the first A350 in the 2nd half of the year. Could CPH-GRU and CPH-IAH work for SAS? I think at least CPH-ICN and OSL-ORD could work.

They have said earlier that they are focusing on the northern hemisphere, but I guess plans can change. ICN seems pretty likely, maybe YYZ as well as SAS has no flights to Canada and probably loses traffic to other airlines. Or maybe CPH-BOS becomes daily?

I think SAS might launch flights to YYZ from ARN rather than from CPH since Air Canada already operates to CPH. And BOS will be daily in S19.

True, I don't think SAS is considering CPH-YYZ.

Next winter, TUI will have direct flights to Thailand from Skellefteå (SFT) and Karlstad (KSD) using a 787.

Well both are members in star alliance so I am nor so sure. With the exception of LAX isn’t SAS strategy also to go for CPH on N America?
If N America I would find it more likely SAS went for SEA from CPH.

JCCLAG wrote:

Isn’t for instance ICN within a a 24 hour turnaround? Even with a safe margin? And with that why is more than one aircraft needed?

I might be wrong but I don't think it's doable with a single plane. SVO-ICN is around 9 hours so CPH should be around 11.

Blerg wrote:

JCCLAG wrote:

Isn’t for instance ICN within a a 24 hour turnaround? Even with a safe margin? And with that why is more than one aircraft needed?

I might be wrong but I don't think it's doable with a single plane. SVO-ICN is around 9 hours so CPH should be around 11.

No you are right. I was wrong. Don’t know where I got that HEL - ICN was 8:30 when it is 9:30. Your 11 is probably correct.

Correction: now I know where I got the 8:30 from. When looking at Flightradar24 and adding up the time it normally lands on 8-8:30 from HEL and searching on google it says 8:40. Still on Finnairs homepage it says 9:30 and that is the official and must be the correct.

Icelandair Group does a stock exchange release regarding the reshuffling of their finances, that was announced last year.

https://globenewswire.com/news-release/ ... ml?print=1

- Bond holders agreed to new condition on the bonds.
- 71 million USD bonds are redeemed on 15 of January 2019.
- Icelandair has made a deal with BOC aviation regarding the pre-delivery payments for 737MAX to be delivered in 2019 and 2020. The total amount is 200 million USD, giving Icelandair 160 million USD in cash during the year, because of payments already done.
- A sale and lease back agreement regarding 2 737MAX to be delivered in 2019 and 2020. 12 year lease with a buy out option after 30 month.
- A sale and lease back agreement with SMBC Aviation Capital regarding 2 737MAX on a 9 year lease.
- All 6 737MAX to be delivered in 2019 are now financed.
- The 3 737MAX delivered in 2018 are on a sale and lease back agreement with BOCOMM Leasing Aviation.
- At the end of 2018 Icelandair has about 250 million USD in cash and owns 40 unencumbered aircraft.

Finnair is the safest airline in the world per JACDEC's Airline Safety Ranking (2019). Congratulations!

Twitter

HEL statistics for 2018

Domestic: 2,955,100 (+8.2%)
International: 17,893,738 (+10.7%)
Total: 20,848,838 (+10.4%)

Total freight: 198,634 tonnes (+2.0%)

-------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 non-European countries*

Japan:...............752,479 (+10.9%)
China:................558,096 (+12.5%)
Thailand:...........414,086 (+12.3%)
USA:..................336,417 (+10.5%)
Hong Kong:........277,281 (+17.1%)
South Korea:......216,626 (+8.9%)
Qatar:.................206,713 (+90.8%)
Singapore:.........196,060 (+9.5%)
India:..................131,700 (+26.5%)
UAE:...................116,662 (+18.9%)

Includes all Finavia airports. Since HEL is the only airport with scheduled intercontinental traffic, the figures are similar to ones at HEL.

I have a question, where is all this demand for India coming from? Are there a lot of Finns going there or is Finnair carrying transfer passengers? Who would be their primary market as I think they are a bit too far north to attract passengers from the UK, Germany, France...

Blerg wrote:

I have a question, where is all this demand for India coming from? Are there a lot of Finns going there or is Finnair carrying transfer passengers? Who would be their primary market as I think they are a bit too far north to attract passengers from the UK, Germany, France...

I believe most of them fly to other Nordic countries (even though Sweden and Denmark have also direct flights) and to North America. Finnair is probably trying to increase its presence on the India-North America traffic and therefore they are adding flights to USA and India (AY even considers Chennai). The demand seems to be higher during the winter season so there must be many tourists as well.

Blerg wrote:

I have a question, where is all this demand for India coming from? Are there a lot of Finns going there or is Finnair carrying transfer passengers? Who would be their primary market as I think they are a bit too far north to attract passengers from the UK, Germany, France...

There's a large amount of companies in the Nordic countries that have a large amount of Indians employed and/or have branch offices in India

Thank you both for your replies. It is interesting that AY has managed to do so well on this market despite increasing competition.

Ryanair is adding its fourth destination from LPP, a 2x weekly route to SXF from April. LPP must be one of the smallest airports Ryanair serves.

https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-10581881

Blerg wrote:

I have a question, where is all this demand for India coming from? Are there a lot of Finns going there or is Finnair carrying transfer passengers? Who would be their primary market as I think they are a bit too far north to attract passengers from the UK, Germany, France...

But are they really? While the capitals (or the largest airports in the case of Germany) in the countries you mentioned have nonstop flights to DEL, a connection in HEL shouldn't be a problem distance wise as the distance travelled is very comparable to connections within Central/Western Europe (and shorter than via e.g. DXB). The real "problem" is the longish connection time for the HEL-DEL flight, but the inbound flight from DEL fits well with connections to Europe. It hasn't always been easy for AY in India and I doubt the yields are anything spectacular in the present time either.

Blerg wrote:

Thank you both for your replies. It is interesting that AY has managed to do so well on this market despite increasing competition.

AY once had bigger plans for India, like India-US East Coast connections via HEL but this hasn't really materialized. BOM was axed and beside DEL there now is seasonal GOI only, supported by Finnish holidaymakers. There have been AY people in Chennai recently, perhaps something bubbling under.

Thank for your replies. Can the A321neo make it to India from Finland?

kruiseri wrote:

In another threads people were betting on Norwegian to go belly up by Jan 1st.

They still seem to be flying, so what is the situation really ? And did they manage to rescue that MAX8 from Iran ?

Regarding the MAX8 from Norwegian, its still stuck in Iran due to the US sanctions.
Also the passengers who were on board and had to spend a night in Iran may have difficulty visiting the United States in the future when they formally visited one of those countries found on the United States list of ' rogue states '.

Blerg wrote:

Thank for your replies. Can the A321neo make it to India from Finland?

Yeah the new LR model has the range with ~180pax

in additon to LPP FR opened a route to TLL from berlin

When are the yearly passenger statistics due? Been wondering if CPH finally breaks 30 million, how close OSL comes to it, if KEF might break 10 million and so on. Great to see HEL break 20 million.

And of course how high FAE might go, it being the first full year of both RC and SK operations.

Norlander wrote:

When are the yearly passenger statistics due? Been wondering if CPH finally breaks 30 million, how close OSL comes to it, if KEF might break 10 million and so on. Great to see HEL break 20 million.

And of course how high FAE might go, it being the first full year of both RC and SK operations.

I believe, the stats will be published within the next couple of weeks. CPH broke 30 million in December.